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Iran's retaliation shows strategic weakness
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer unpacks Iran’s carefully calibrated retaliation against the United States after a major American strike on its nuclear program. Tehran launched missiles at a massive US base in Qatar, but warned Washington ahead of time, resulting in no casualties.
“It shows incredible weakness on the part of the Iranian government,” Ian notes, emphasizing the Islamic Republic’s desire to avoid provoking further US escalation.
Ian calls the moment “the biggest foreign policy win for President Trump” so far in his second term, as Iran appears increasingly isolated and risk averse. He also highlights how the regime's top leadership is in hiding, further hampering its ability to coordinate or negotiate.
While the immediate threat of escalation has eased, Ian still warns that “rogue actors” within Iran’s military still pose a risk. For now, though, oil prices are down and the region is holding its breath.
Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and US President, Donald Trump, meet with the Syrian president Ahmad Al-Sharaa
Trump pledged to lift Syria sanctions, can Damascus seize the moment?
When US President Donald Trump promised to lift sanctions on Syria this week, the streets of Damascus erupted in celebration.
“It was a huge, huge day for Syrians,” says Ibrahim al-Assil, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., who is from the Syrian capital.
“Many people, my relatives and friends in Damascus, they are saying the same thing: ‘this is the second biggest day in my life after the fall of the regime!’”
For a country battered by more than a decade of war and mass emigration, Trump’s announcement has flung open a window of opportunity that few thought possible as recently as December. That was when current president Ahmed al-Sharaa, a one-time Al-Qaeda member, led a coalition of militias that overthrew the Assad dictatorship.
The reconstruction needs are huge. A recent UN report says Syria’s 14-year civil war cost the country at least $800 billion in lost GDP – the country’s annual output plunged from $67.5 billion in 2011 to just $23.62 billion in 2022. Estimates of the cost to rebuild the country’s infrastructure run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Trump’s move now opens the way for powerful foreign players like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to help foot that bill, without fear of running afoul of US law.
Hold up, those sanctions didn’t vanish just yet. There are numerous restrictions on the books. The president can lift some, but others require Congress. US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has already questioned the wisdom of scrapping sanctions before it’s clear al-Sharaa and his allies have fully shed their jihadist pedigree.
Still, Trump’s personal commitment to sanctions relief, and the strong interest of US allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey in seeing it happen, means the measures are likely to come off sooner rather than later.
“There were some very strong dissenting voices within the administration,” says Firas Maksad, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East practice. “But this was one of those times where the president just went over and above those differences.”
But even if the sanctions are scrapped, al-Sharaa still faces huge challenges if he wants to make good on the promise of Trump’s move.
For starters, he must tamp down long-standing sectarian tensions. Pro-government gunmen have recently clashed with both the Alawites – the Assad family’s own sect – and the Druze minority, which is backed by Israel. Christian and secular Syrians remain wary of a government still run almost entirely by Islamists close to al-Sharaa. At the same time, efforts to forge a new security force out of the country’s dozens of local militias have slowed.
What’s more, al-Sharaa has yet to follow through on a promise to appoint a new legislative council. The composition of that body will tell us a lot about whether he is willing, or able, to carefully balance the country’s various factions, but it will also serve a more basic function, says al-Assil.
“When we talk about investments and reviving the Syrian economy, that requires new laws to govern those investments, and a space to resolve conflicts so that they aren’t resolved through violence.” To date, that space seems to exist only among a small number of power-brokers close to al-Sharaa.
Lastly, Damascus will have to manage competition among the various outside powers jostling for influence in the new Syria.
The most immediate concern is Syria’s old foe Israel, which since December has moved aggressively to wreck Damascus’s military capabilities and establish its own sphere of influence in Southern Syria. The two sides are now speaking via backchannels, though, giving al-Sharaa the change to reach an understanding with the Israelis that gives him more breathing room.
But even among Syria’s friends there will be friction. The two likely giants on the scene, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have in the past clashed over Istanbul’s support for Islamist political groups. Riyadh and Doha have had similar run-ins. Competing visions for Syria among its biggest patrons could prove destabilizing.
Despite this thicket of challenges, al-Assil is cautiously optimistic.
“Syrians want this to work,” he says, “they want to navigate a way to reconcile their differences, and they recognize how important this opportunity is. And that gives me hope.”
US President Donald Trump is welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
Dollar diplomacy: Finance is the focus as Trump heads to the Gulf
In his first diplomatic overseas trip since returning to office, Donald Trump is embarking on a four-day tour through a trio of Gulf states with the goal of bringing home over $1 trillion in deals and investment pledges – and a free $400 million plane for good measure.
The US president will visit Saudi Arabia – his first overseas trip of his debut term was also to Riyadh – as well as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Trump scored an early diplomatic win ahead of his visit when Hamas released Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander on Monday — a move the paramilitary group framed as a gesture of goodwill toward the president. The release — made without any demands — was aimed at showing the US and Israel that Hamas is serious about pursuing another ceasefire and willing to negotiate, per Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
“Hamas clearly believes that the US is the only country — and Trump is probably the only person — with sufficient leverage over Netanyahu to compel him to make a deal,” Panikoff said.
Alexander’s release comes as Israel threatens to escalate its military campaign in Gaza, warning it may move toward full occupation of the strip after Trump’s visit to the region, if no new ceasefire agreement is reached.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt hinted that the trip would involve peace talks, too, saying that Trump still aims for a “prosperous and successful Middle East” where “extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges.”
But the Gaza War isn’t likely to be high on the agenda for Trump. Despite the Gulf’s support for Palestine, the focus is instead on business.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pledged to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years, which the Trump administration is trying to push up to $1 trillion. The UAE wants to go a step further, committing $1.4 trillion of investment over the next decade, with the majority of the funds going to AI and energy.
While Qatar has not committed to how much it is planning to invest, they’ve set the tone by readying a $400-million gift to the president in the form of a Boeing 747, raising ethics concerns about the US president accepting such a lavish gift from a foreign government.
The meetings are designed to be symbiotic: Gulf nations are opening their sovereign wealth coffers with the expectation of attracting investment from US tech giants — CEOs including Mark Zuckerberg are among those accompanying Trump on the trip. As these countries push to diversify their economies beyond oil, their decade-long investment promises aim to anchor their economic relevance to the US.
“They want it to be a place where the US thinks of trade with the Gulf countries in the same way that we think of trade with Canada, Germany, or Japan,” says Panikoff.
Hidden figures: Even if these investment pledges reach fruition, the Gulf countries would still have a long way to go until they reach the annual foreign direct investment levels from Japan, Canada, and Germany – the three countries which invest the most in the US. In 2023 alone, Japan ploughed $783.3 billion in the US – mostly in the automobile industry – followed by Canada at $749.6 billion, and Germany at $657.8 billion.
And what about Iran? Like Gaza, this isn’t likely to dominate talks. While Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign once thrilled Gulf monarchies, they are now more skeptical of US security guarantees and more interested in stabilizing ties with Tehran. If Iran comes up on Trump’s trip, it will be behind closed doors.
“[The Gulf states have] gone largely onto plan B when it comes to Iran,” says Panikoff. “And plan B is détente.”
A model of the new Air Force One is seen as US President Donald Trump meets with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on July 9, 2019.
HARD NUMBERS: Qatar gifts Trump a jet, Soviet spacecraft comes down to Earth, RSF drone hits Sudanese prison, Past Panamanian president heads for Colombia, Pope calls for “no more war”
400 million: US President Donald Trump is set to accept a$400 million “flying palace” from Qatar’s royal family. Legal experts question whether the luxury Boeing 747-8 jet contravenes restrictions on foreign gifts to US officials, but the White House claims Trump is cleared for takeoff if he transfers the plane to his Presidential Library at the end of his term.
53: After 53 years in orbit, the Soviet-era spacecraft Kosmos 482 made an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere Saturday over the Indian Ocean – though its exact location remains unknown. Designed for a mission to Venus, the spacecraft’s 1-meter titanium-encased lander weighs an estimated 1,000 pounds, but the chances of any injuries from its descent are deemed “exceedingly low.” Phew.
20: A suspected drone strike by Sudan’s rebel paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) hit a prison in Obeid, North Kordofan, on Saturday, killing at least 20 inmates and injuring 50 others. The RSF has ramped up drone strikes recently in its two-year-old war with the Sudanese government army, targeting civilian areas and refugee camps in a conflict that has already killed 24,000 people and displaced 13 million, per the United Nations.
15: After residing for 15 months inside Nicaragua’s embassy in Panama City to avoid a 10-year prison sentence, former Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli is heading to Colombia for asylum. The billionaire businessman was found guilty of money laundering in July 2023. His former running mate José Raúl Mulino, is now the president of Panama.
1: There’s a first for everything: this weekend, Pope Leo XVIdelivered his debut blessing from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome. And there was a hint of politics in his message: the new pontiff called for “no more war”, amid conflict in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Kashmir, and Sudan. He also paid tribute to moms, “including those in heaven,” for Mothers’ Day.Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 2, 2024.
Qatar suspends Hamas-Israel mediation efforts
The Gulf Arab emirate announced this weekend it would stop mediating efforts to broker a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Hamas and Israel until “the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.”
For months, talks have failed, despite efforts by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. Hamas demands a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages, while Israel, which has sworn to destroy Hamas, insists on only a temporary truce and the right to occupy the enclave indefinitely.
Relatedly, reports suggested the Qataris, under US pressure, have asked Hamas political leaders to leave the kingdom, where they have enjoyed a safe haven for more than a decade.
Qatar, a US ally, has long served as a channel for talks with Hamas and other groups listed as terror organizations by the West.
Whether Qatar’s gambit will revive productive talks remains to be seen, but with Benjamin Netanyahu now comfortably awaiting the return of his close ally Donald Trump to the White House, it may put more pressure on Hamas than on the Israelis.
While the group could relocate elsewhere, there are no viable options that would offer channels to the West as direct as Qatar’s. Meanwhile, Trump, who has promised to “end” the conflict, has reportedly spoken with Netanyahu at least three times since the election alone.
For a broader look at how Trump 2.0 might shake up US foreign policy, including on the Middle East, see our recent report here.Demonstrators hold placards as they take part in a rally calling for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 25, 2024.
Palestinian Authority PM resigns amid truce talks for Gaza
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyehtendered his resignation to President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday, in a move that could set the stage for Gaza’s future government. Meanwhile, negotiations for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza have resumed in Doha between “experts” from Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, and representatives of Hamas.
What are the terms?
According to a framework drawn up in Paris on Friday, hostilities would pause for six weeks. Hamas would release approximately 40 hostages, while Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops would be “redeployed” within Gaza, but not fully withdraw as Hamas had demanded. Israel would also enable the return of Palestinian women and children to northern Gaza.
The clock is ticking
March 10 marks the start of Ramadan and is considered the unofficial deadline for the talks. War cabinet minister Benny Gantz has said Israel will expand its offensive into Rafah if there is no hostage release deal by then.
Will a deal stave off operations in Rafah?
Not necessarily. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel’s incursion into Rafah “will be delayed somewhat” if the parties reach a hostage deal but will still happen. According to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, however, “the White House hasn't seen any Israeli plan for an operation in Rafah and for keeping Palestinian civilians safe,” and that no action in Rafah should go ahead in its absence.Why did Shtayyeh resign?
Longer term, the United States has been pressuring the PA to clean up its act. Washington envisions a technocratic PA government overseeing post-war Gaza, but with its reputation for corruption and low esteem in the eyes of West Bank residents, a major government overhaul is seen as indispensable.
The Palestinian Authority has not held elections in nearly two decades, with Abbas ruling by presidential decree since the expiration of his nominally four year long term. The last time they attempted to democratically choose leadership, in 2006, Hamas won control of Gaza and pushed the Palestinian Authority out by force within a year. We have our eye on how the PA decides its future leadership, and whether a return to Gaza is even a feasible proposition.
Israeli soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in this handout picture released on January 28, 2024.
Israel and Hamas may be close to a cease-fire. Has the war already spun out?
A drone attack launched by Iran-aligned militants in Syria on Sunday killed three US soldiers stationed in Jordan, even as CIA Director William Burns was in Paris for high-level talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials over a possible cease-fire and hostage exchange with Hamas. The contours of any deal are not yet clear, but The New York Times reported a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for around 100 remaining hostages.
US President Joe Biden spoke with the Emir of Qatar on Friday, and we’re watching for signs that US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk might be dispatched to the region, which could signal a deal is at hand.
“Burns is pushing for some form of a deal that the Qataris can pressure Hamas to accept,” said Ayham Kamel, a Eurasia Group expert on Middle East policy. The Biden administration is reportedly considering slowing weapons shipments to Israel to build leverage on that side of the negotiations.
A cease-fire can’t come soon enough for the approximately 2 million Gazans reliant on aid to survive after fighting has rendered the vast majority of homes unsafe. Over 26,000 have been killed since the start of the conflict, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.
We’re also watching for how any cease-fire plays out among Iranian proxies. Kamel said the attack on US troops amplified the pressure on Washington to seal a cease-fire, and the Houthis targeted a US destroyer with a missile on Saturday. If the fighting stops in Gaza but continues in the Red Sea and Fertile Crescent, it may be a sign the war has already spun out of hand.
A picture taken on 20 April 2023 shows a general view of the West Bay skyline in Doha corniche at sunrise in Doha,Qatar on 20 April 2023
Qatar: The little country that could
It has one of the highest per capita incomes in the world, is one of the biggest landowners in the UK, boasts a sovereign wealth fund of $475 billion, and even owns a sizable piece of the Empire State Building. And yet its population is smaller than Madrid’s.
Of all the countries in the Middle East, there’s perhaps no other that punches above its weight more than Qatar. The tiny, exorbitantly wealthy Persian Gulf nation of roughly 2.7 million people has garnered incredible regional and even global influence – and constantly seems to be involved in the biggest stories of the day.
In 2022, the eyes of the world were on Qatar as it hosted the FIFA World Cup. More recently, Doha has been at the center of cease-fire negotiations in the Israel-Hamas war that began in October. It’s also been tied to less flattering stories, including new allegations of corruption against US Sen. Bob Menendez, who until recently chaired the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
But how did Qatar become so powerful?
It’s all part of the plan. In the mid-1990s, Qatar set itself on a strategic path to build its wealth and increase its international influence, says Raad Alkadiri, former managing director for energy and climate at Eurasia Group.
Qatar invested heavily in liquified natural gas (LNG), bringing in US and European companies as part of this effort. It’s now one of the top exporters of LNG in the world.
The Gulf state also invited the US to set up an air base within its borders after Saudi Arabia refused. Al Udeid Air Base, which the US has been operating since 2001, is the largest US military base in the Middle East.
All of this was about “national security as much as anything else,” says Alkadiri. Qatar is situated in an often volatile region, and is surrounded by larger, potentially threatening neighbors like Saudi Arabia and Iran. Building relationships with powerful countries such as the US serves as a layer of protection for Qatar.
Hedging its bets. Qatar has been “very careful not to put its eggs in one basket,” says Alkadiri, and “agility” has been key to its success.
Nowhere is this more clear than in its striking diplomatic agility: at the same time that it hosts a major US military presence, it also maintains close ties with Washington’s biggest regional foe: Iran. Qatar and Iran share the world’s largest natural gas field, the North Dome/South Pars, which for years has helped fill Doha’s coffers – giving it ample reason to stay on Tehran’s good side.
Doha has also long cultivated ties with Islamist political groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and the Taliban. Qatar, for example, has pumped millions of dollars into Gaza over the years (with Israel’s approval), while also hosting exiled Hamas political leaders.
By being open to dialogue and engagement with a wide array of actors, Qatar has put itself in a unique position to serve as a mediator in a number of conflicts. Qatar helped foster a temporary cease-fire in Gaza late last year that coincided with the release of hostages taken on Oct. 7. Doha has also served as an interlocutor between Washington and the Taliban, both before and after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Doha has gone hard on soft power too. It’s invested in everything from art to sports as part of a deliberate strategy that gives it the ability to “pull different levers when it needs to.”
Qatar Sports Investments, a subsidiary of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, owns the Paris Saint-Germain Football Club (PSG) in France – one of the most prestigious soccer teams in Europe (Kylian Mbappé, widely considered one of the best players in the world, is on PSG).
The Qatari state also helped put itself on the international map by founding Al Jazeera in the mid-1990s. Al Jazeera’s critical reporting on an array of issues in the region has also made the outlet, and Doha by association, a target of various governments – but it’s also given Qatar outsized influence in its neighborhood and the wider world.
“They have always sought to give themselves room for maneuver and have used energy, the media, money, and long-standing relations with Islamist groups as a way of being able to achieve that,” says Alkadiri.
No absolutes. It’s no secret that Qatar’s insistence on charting its own path has led to blowback from its neighbors at times – most notably in the form of a 2017-2021 blockade involving Saudi Arabia and several other Arab countries.
The blockade was influenced by Qatar’s relatively amicable relations with Iran, a longtime rival of Riyadh. Its relationships with Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, which pushes a conservative interpretation of Islam and is considered to be a terrorist group by the Saudi government, also drove Qatar’s neighbors against it. The US played a role in ending the blockade, which ultimately did little to nothing in terms of altering Qatar’s foreign policy.
Qatar used the various measures at its disposal to ensure it has the level of independence and international support necessary to withstand the blockade, says Alkadiri.
And though Qatar leveraged its connections with Hamas to help secure the release of hostages last year, Israel and the US have also criticized Doha for continuing to host Hamas officials amid the war in Gaza. “The Israelis, up to Oct. 7, were quite happy to rely on Qatar's relations with Hamas as part of Israel's policy in the region,” says Alkadiri.
But Alkadiri also emphasized that none of this is to say that Qatar does not have an “ugly underbelly.”
The Gulf state is, after all, led by an emir who has absolute power and has often faced criticism on human rights issues. But with ample cash to splash out and a diplomatic rolodex that also serves as an invaluable form of currency, Doha has managed to avoid much censure over these issues.
Qatar has “never had absolutes,” says Alkadiri. “It’s always had wavy edges. That’s served it well.”