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Israel attacks and targets Hamas leadership in Qatar
How will Israel's attack in Qatar strain US alliances?
In this episode of Ask Ian, Ian Bremmer unpacks Israel’s attack against Hamas leadership in Qatar.
“Recent attacks on Qatar, a major ally of the United States, didn’t succeed in taking out Hamas’ leadership,” Ian explains. But that move, he notes, has “agitated President Trump pretty significantly,” given America’s close ties to Qatar and the wider Gulf states.
While the US shows no signs of breaking from Israel, evidenced by refusing to grant visas to Palestinian officials, Ian warns that the Trump administration’s support carries risks. With Israel shifting from “deterrence to threat removal,” US allies like the UAE are drawing red lines, even threatening to exit the Abraham Accords, which Ian says "would be a big slap to President Trump directly."
A damaged building, following an Israeli attack on Hamas leaders, according to an Israeli official, in Doha, Qatar, September 9, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israel strikes Hamas leaders in Qatar, Nepal prime minister resigns, Norway election results
Israel strikes Hamas leaders in Qatar
Israel on Monday conducted a brazen assassination attempt on senior Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital of Doha. As of now, their fate is unknown. Qatar and other Gulf Arab monarchies condemned the strike, which came as the Hamas leaders were discussing a Gaza ceasefire proposal from Donald Trump. The US president on Sunday had issued a “last warning” to Hamas to accept his terms, which he said Israel had agreed to. Israel says it carried out the operation entirely on its own, but what the US or others knew about it and when is a big question. Another question: will Qatar continue to act as a mediator between Israel and Hamas after this?
Nepal’s prime minister steps down amid growing protests
Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli resigned on Tuesday, while protestors set the parliament on fire and attacked politicians’ homes, a day after at least 19 demonstrators were killed on Monday in ongoing protests over corruption and a social media ban. Oli, the leader of Nepal’s Communist Party, has run the Himalayan nation for much of the last decade, and his exit leaves a dizzying power vacuum. The “Gen Z” protest movement wants youth representatives to lead an interim government. Army leaders have called for calm. But no one has stepped in with a plan, risking a deeper descent into violence.
Norway’s center-left party wins again
Norway’s governing Labor Party claimed victory in Monday’s general election, with the center-left bloc winning 87 of 169 seats. The campaign centered largely on the country’s wealth tax, which Labor vows to preserve. The result bucked the trend of establishment center-left incumbents getting hammered at the polls in Europe, but it also underscored the rising appeal of the right: Norway’s anti-immigration, Eurosceptic Progress Party surged to its best-ever result. Labor will now have to rely on a coalition of smaller left-wing parties to pass its agenda.
Iran's retaliation shows strategic weakness
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer unpacks Iran’s carefully calibrated retaliation against the United States after a major American strike on its nuclear program. Tehran launched missiles at a massive US base in Qatar, but warned Washington ahead of time, resulting in no casualties.
“It shows incredible weakness on the part of the Iranian government,” Ian notes, emphasizing the Islamic Republic’s desire to avoid provoking further US escalation.
Ian calls the moment “the biggest foreign policy win for President Trump” so far in his second term, as Iran appears increasingly isolated and risk averse. He also highlights how the regime's top leadership is in hiding, further hampering its ability to coordinate or negotiate.
While the immediate threat of escalation has eased, Ian still warns that “rogue actors” within Iran’s military still pose a risk. For now, though, oil prices are down and the region is holding its breath.
Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and US President, Donald Trump, meet with the Syrian president Ahmad Al-Sharaa
Trump pledged to lift Syria sanctions, can Damascus seize the moment?
When US President Donald Trump promised to lift sanctions on Syria this week, the streets of Damascus erupted in celebration.
“It was a huge, huge day for Syrians,” says Ibrahim al-Assil, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., who is from the Syrian capital.
“Many people, my relatives and friends in Damascus, they are saying the same thing: ‘this is the second biggest day in my life after the fall of the regime!’”
For a country battered by more than a decade of war and mass emigration, Trump’s announcement has flung open a window of opportunity that few thought possible as recently as December. That was when current president Ahmed al-Sharaa, a one-time Al-Qaeda member, led a coalition of militias that overthrew the Assad dictatorship.
The reconstruction needs are huge. A recent UN report says Syria’s 14-year civil war cost the country at least $800 billion in lost GDP – the country’s annual output plunged from $67.5 billion in 2011 to just $23.62 billion in 2022. Estimates of the cost to rebuild the country’s infrastructure run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Trump’s move now opens the way for powerful foreign players like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to help foot that bill, without fear of running afoul of US law.
Hold up, those sanctions didn’t vanish just yet. There are numerous restrictions on the books. The president can lift some, but others require Congress. US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has already questioned the wisdom of scrapping sanctions before it’s clear al-Sharaa and his allies have fully shed their jihadist pedigree.
Still, Trump’s personal commitment to sanctions relief, and the strong interest of US allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey in seeing it happen, means the measures are likely to come off sooner rather than later.
“There were some very strong dissenting voices within the administration,” says Firas Maksad, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East practice. “But this was one of those times where the president just went over and above those differences.”
But even if the sanctions are scrapped, al-Sharaa still faces huge challenges if he wants to make good on the promise of Trump’s move.
For starters, he must tamp down long-standing sectarian tensions. Pro-government gunmen have recently clashed with both the Alawites – the Assad family’s own sect – and the Druze minority, which is backed by Israel. Christian and secular Syrians remain wary of a government still run almost entirely by Islamists close to al-Sharaa. At the same time, efforts to forge a new security force out of the country’s dozens of local militias have slowed.
What’s more, al-Sharaa has yet to follow through on a promise to appoint a new legislative council. The composition of that body will tell us a lot about whether he is willing, or able, to carefully balance the country’s various factions, but it will also serve a more basic function, says al-Assil.
“When we talk about investments and reviving the Syrian economy, that requires new laws to govern those investments, and a space to resolve conflicts so that they aren’t resolved through violence.” To date, that space seems to exist only among a small number of power-brokers close to al-Sharaa.
Lastly, Damascus will have to manage competition among the various outside powers jostling for influence in the new Syria.
The most immediate concern is Syria’s old foe Israel, which since December has moved aggressively to wreck Damascus’s military capabilities and establish its own sphere of influence in Southern Syria. The two sides are now speaking via backchannels, though, giving al-Sharaa the change to reach an understanding with the Israelis that gives him more breathing room.
But even among Syria’s friends there will be friction. The two likely giants on the scene, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have in the past clashed over Istanbul’s support for Islamist political groups. Riyadh and Doha have had similar run-ins. Competing visions for Syria among its biggest patrons could prove destabilizing.
Despite this thicket of challenges, al-Assil is cautiously optimistic.
“Syrians want this to work,” he says, “they want to navigate a way to reconcile their differences, and they recognize how important this opportunity is. And that gives me hope.”
US President Donald Trump is welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
Dollar diplomacy: Finance is the focus as Trump heads to the Gulf
In his first diplomatic overseas trip since returning to office, Donald Trump is embarking on a four-day tour through a trio of Gulf states with the goal of bringing home over $1 trillion in deals and investment pledges – and a free $400 million plane for good measure.
The US president will visit Saudi Arabia – his first overseas trip of his debut term was also to Riyadh – as well as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Trump scored an early diplomatic win ahead of his visit when Hamas released Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander on Monday — a move the paramilitary group framed as a gesture of goodwill toward the president. The release — made without any demands — was aimed at showing the US and Israel that Hamas is serious about pursuing another ceasefire and willing to negotiate, per Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
“Hamas clearly believes that the US is the only country — and Trump is probably the only person — with sufficient leverage over Netanyahu to compel him to make a deal,” Panikoff said.
Alexander’s release comes as Israel threatens to escalate its military campaign in Gaza, warning it may move toward full occupation of the strip after Trump’s visit to the region, if no new ceasefire agreement is reached.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt hinted that the trip would involve peace talks, too, saying that Trump still aims for a “prosperous and successful Middle East” where “extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges.”
But the Gaza War isn’t likely to be high on the agenda for Trump. Despite the Gulf’s support for Palestine, the focus is instead on business.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pledged to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years, which the Trump administration is trying to push up to $1 trillion. The UAE wants to go a step further, committing $1.4 trillion of investment over the next decade, with the majority of the funds going to AI and energy.
While Qatar has not committed to how much it is planning to invest, they’ve set the tone by readying a $400-million gift to the president in the form of a Boeing 747, raising ethics concerns about the US president accepting such a lavish gift from a foreign government.
The meetings are designed to be symbiotic: Gulf nations are opening their sovereign wealth coffers with the expectation of attracting investment from US tech giants — CEOs including Mark Zuckerberg are among those accompanying Trump on the trip. As these countries push to diversify their economies beyond oil, their decade-long investment promises aim to anchor their economic relevance to the US.
“They want it to be a place where the US thinks of trade with the Gulf countries in the same way that we think of trade with Canada, Germany, or Japan,” says Panikoff.
Hidden figures: Even if these investment pledges reach fruition, the Gulf countries would still have a long way to go until they reach the annual foreign direct investment levels from Japan, Canada, and Germany – the three countries which invest the most in the US. In 2023 alone, Japan ploughed $783.3 billion in the US – mostly in the automobile industry – followed by Canada at $749.6 billion, and Germany at $657.8 billion.
And what about Iran? Like Gaza, this isn’t likely to dominate talks. While Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign once thrilled Gulf monarchies, they are now more skeptical of US security guarantees and more interested in stabilizing ties with Tehran. If Iran comes up on Trump’s trip, it will be behind closed doors.
“[The Gulf states have] gone largely onto plan B when it comes to Iran,” says Panikoff. “And plan B is détente.”
A model of the new Air Force One is seen as US President Donald Trump meets with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on July 9, 2019.
HARD NUMBERS: Qatar gifts Trump a jet, Soviet spacecraft comes down to Earth, RSF drone hits Sudanese prison, Past Panamanian president heads for Colombia, Pope calls for “no more war”
400 million: US President Donald Trump is set to accept a $400 million “flying palace” from Qatar’s royal family. Legal experts question whether the luxury Boeing 747-8 jet contravenes restrictions on foreign gifts to US officials, but the White House claims Trump is cleared for takeoff if he transfers the plane to his Presidential Library at the end of his term.
53: After 53 years in orbit, the Soviet-era spacecraft Kosmos 482 made an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere Saturday over the Indian Ocean – though its exact location remains unknown. Designed for a mission to Venus, the spacecraft’s 1-meter titanium-encased lander weighs an estimated 1,000 pounds, but the chances of any injuries from its descent are deemed “exceedingly low.” Phew.
20: A suspected drone strike by Sudan’s rebel paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) hit a prison in Obeid, North Kordofan, on Saturday, killing at least 20 inmates and injuring 50 others. The RSF has ramped up drone strikes recently in its two-year-old war with the Sudanese government army, targeting civilian areas and refugee camps in a conflict that has already killed 24,000 people and displaced 13 million, per the United Nations.
15: After residing for 15 months inside Nicaragua’s embassy in Panama City to avoid a 10-year prison sentence, former Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli is heading to Colombia for asylum. The billionaire businessman was found guilty of money laundering in July 2023. His former running mate José Raúl Mulino, is now the president of Panama.
1: There’s a first for everything: this weekend, Pope Leo XVI delivered his debut blessing from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome. And there was a hint of politics in his message: the new pontiff called for “no more war”, amid conflict in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Kashmir, and Sudan. He also paid tribute to moms, “including those in heaven,” for Mothers’ Day.Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 2, 2024.
Qatar suspends Hamas-Israel mediation efforts
The Gulf Arab emirate announced this weekend it would stop mediating efforts to broker a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Hamas and Israel until “the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.”
For months, talks have failed, despite efforts by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. Hamas demands a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages, while Israel, which has sworn to destroy Hamas, insists on only a temporary truce and the right to occupy the enclave indefinitely.
Relatedly, reports suggested the Qataris, under US pressure, have asked Hamas political leaders to leave the kingdom, where they have enjoyed a safe haven for more than a decade.
Qatar, a US ally, has long served as a channel for talks with Hamas and other groups listed as terror organizations by the West.
Whether Qatar’s gambit will revive productive talks remains to be seen, but with Benjamin Netanyahu now comfortably awaiting the return of his close ally Donald Trump to the White House, it may put more pressure on Hamas than on the Israelis.
While the group could relocate elsewhere, there are no viable options that would offer channels to the West as direct as Qatar’s. Meanwhile, Trump, who has promised to “end” the conflict, has reportedly spoken with Netanyahu at least three times since the election alone.
For a broader look at how Trump 2.0 might shake up US foreign policy, including on the Middle East, see our recent report here.Demonstrators hold placards as they take part in a rally calling for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 25, 2024.
Palestinian Authority PM resigns amid truce talks for Gaza
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh tendered his resignation to President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday, in a move that could set the stage for Gaza’s future government. Meanwhile, negotiations for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza have resumed in Doha between “experts” from Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, and representatives of Hamas.
What are the terms?
According to a framework drawn up in Paris on Friday, hostilities would pause for six weeks. Hamas would release approximately 40 hostages, while Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops would be “redeployed” within Gaza, but not fully withdraw as Hamas had demanded. Israel would also enable the return of Palestinian women and children to northern Gaza.
The clock is ticking
March 10 marks the start of Ramadan and is considered the unofficial deadline for the talks. War cabinet minister Benny Gantz has said Israel will expand its offensive into Rafah if there is no hostage release deal by then.
Will a deal stave off operations in Rafah?
Not necessarily. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel’s incursion into Rafah “will be delayed somewhat” if the parties reach a hostage deal but will still happen. According to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, however, “the White House hasn't seen any Israeli plan for an operation in Rafah and for keeping Palestinian civilians safe,” and that no action in Rafah should go ahead in its absence.Why did Shtayyeh resign?
Longer term, the United States has been pressuring the PA to clean up its act. Washington envisions a technocratic PA government overseeing post-war Gaza, but with its reputation for corruption and low esteem in the eyes of West Bank residents, a major government overhaul is seen as indispensable.
The Palestinian Authority has not held elections in nearly two decades, with Abbas ruling by presidential decree since the expiration of his nominally four year long term. The last time they attempted to democratically choose leadership, in 2006, Hamas won control of Gaza and pushed the Palestinian Authority out by force within a year. We have our eye on how the PA decides its future leadership, and whether a return to Gaza is even a feasible proposition.