Saudi fans watching the World Cup first-round match against Poland at a fan zone in Doha.
REUTERS/Ibraheem Al Omari
World Cup in Doha: Ghost city by day, party town for Arabs by night
November 27, 2022
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Iran Nuclear Deal Is Dead | World In :60 | GZERO Media
Iran nuclear deal is dead
November 22, 2022
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Iran has announced it will enrich more uranium. Is the nuclear deal dead?
Yeah, it is pretty dead at this point. It is inconceivable to me that the Americans or allies would be prepared to cut a nuclear deal for an Iranian regime that is under this much domestic pressure and repressing its civilian population to this degree. Not to mention the fact that there's been attacks into Kurdish territories in Iraq over the last several days. There's been enormous amounts of state police repression with lots of instability. It's only growing, frankly. I can't imagine a nuclear deal getting cut here.
And that leads to the question of what the Israelis are going to do in response? What the Americans are going to do? What the Gulf States going to do in response? Because of course, none of these countries want the Iranians to go nuclear. There're nuclear breakout capabilities if they want to go that direction is a matter of weeks. So it's something we're going to watch carefully.
India now takes over as G-20 chair. What are the risks and opportunities for Modi?
Well, I mean, kind of like the Indonesians, it is an opportunity to showcase a country that's doing fairly well. And both Indonesia and India are. India in particular, investing an enormous amount of money in digital infrastructure after having not invested for decades in conventional infrastructure. I think showing off India's growth, India's demographics, India's technology, and India's willingness to play a greater leadership role on the global stage, all something Modi wants to do, and also from the perspective of a pretty strong and politically stable government with about 70% approval ratings across the country right now. There are very few leaders and governments in the position that Modi and India are in right now. That makes it a great time for them to be hosting the G-20.
Will MBS pump more oil after the Saudis shocked Argentina in the World Cup?
No. If anything, they're probably going to reduce because prices have been still on the downside over the course of the last several weeks, even though OPEC took a million barrels off their total production. And that is because of concerns of global recession, Chinese economy under producing, not as much demand. That's still where we are as we look into 2023. The bigger question is whether the Argentines or the Iranians have a tougher reception at home. The Iranians, of course, very, very brave, courageous in refusing to sing the national anthem given what's happening on the ground in Iran. The Argentines had no problem singing the national anthem. They just had a problem performing against the Saudis. And I mean, this is a country that really... they don't do many things well on the global stage, but football is right up there, and they just got crushed by the Saudis two to one. Oof. Not fun if you're in Buenos Aires right now.
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Salem Al-Dawsari celebrates scoring Saudi Arabia's second goal against Argentina.
REUTERS/Marko Djurica
Saudi shocker is a victory for all Arabs — and a PR coup for MBS
November 22, 2022
Saudi Arabia's stunning victory over Argentina on Tuesday was one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history. The lowly Saudis defeated the mighty Argentines, overcoming odds so great that if you'd bet $100 on the Saudis, you'd have walked out with more than $2,200 in beer money. (Oops, you can't actually buy any beer at Qatar 2022.)
More importantly, it made the kingdom proud — and sent long-awaited ripples of soccer joy throughout the Arab world. Why?
For one thing, soccer is immensely popular across the Middle East and North Africa. Cafés everywhere from Cairo to Damascus celebrated the Saudi win as one of their own in a part of the world that often gets more attention from conflict and political turmoil than from its achievements on the world stage. What's more, for the first time the tournament is being hosted by Qatar, which has made a big deal out of this being the World Cup for the Arab world.
For another, MENA countries have traditionally underperformed at the World Cup. Only three countries — Morocco in 1986, Saudi Arabia in 1994, and Algeria in 2014 — have ever made it to the knockout stage, despite having a rich soccer tradition and many players in top European leagues. For connoisseurs, MENA teams play a beautiful attacking game but get bested by the superior physical and tactical skills of the squads from Europe or South America that have long dominated the sport.
What’s more, 40 years ago Arabs around the world felt cheated when squeaky-clean Austria and Germany agreed to draw 0-0 to kick out Algeria from the last 16 in Spain 1982. One of the biggest scandals in World Cup history left a bitter taste in the mouths of those who dreamed Algeria would go far.
And then there's the politics of it all. Watching in the presidential box in Doha was none other than Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who less than two years ago was still leading a blockade of Qatar. MBS must have been on cloud nine as his men beat Argentina, a two-time World Cup winner led by Leo Messi — (arguably, for some) the sport's GOAT.
It turns out Messi is also (!) tourism ambassador for Saudi Arabia, whose human rights record makes Qatar's look like child's play. Hardly a surprise that the Paris Saint-Germain star got a lot of flak over it.
MBS is basking in the glory. Four years ago, the world turned its back on the Saudi de-facto ruler after US intelligence suggested he ordered the killing and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi, a dissident journalist and Saudi critic. Now, he's welcomed everywhere and will likely escape US prosecution after being named PM.
When Saudi Arabia reached the knockout stage in USA '94, then-King Fahd gifted the team's best player with a luxury car. This time, perhaps the sky's the limit for MBS if the Saudis advance in Qatar.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
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Annie Gugliotta
World Cup politics go way beyond Qatar
November 21, 2022
The 2022 World Cup now underway in Qatar is the most political edition of the tournament in decades. But it's also playing out politically far away from the host country in parts of the globe where fans often pay more attention to the sport than to their elected officials.
For instance, in Brazil, supporters of left-wing President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva want to reclaim the yellow jersey from the fans of outgoing far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilian progressives say Bolsonaro’s supporters co-opted the color of their five-time winning national side during the recent presidential election campaign.
Let’s find more examples from a few Eurasia Group soccer nuts, ahem, experts.
South America. Argentina has the best odds to go all the way in Qatar along with Brazil. It also has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, expected to top 100% by the end of the year (and you thought 8% in the US was bad!).
"Naturally, Argentines are not happy about their rapidly declining purchasing power, and they’re ready to kick President Alberto Fernández to the curb," says global macro analyst Sebastian Strauss. “Yet instead of fighting tooth and nail to tame inflation and hold onto power, the government is betting the house on a rather more unconventional way to make voters happy: winning the World Cup."
When asked to pick between victory and reining in inflation, Minister of Labor Kelly Olmos did not hesitate. One month won't really matter, and she can get around to inflation later — after the Albiceleste brings home the trophy. But if that happens, Strauss says, "it’ll be thanks to Leo Messi and company’s heroics in Qatar — not to Fernández and his posse watching in Buenos Aires.”
“Alas, they may still be rewarded for it," he adds. (Argentina’s next presidential election is in exactly one year.)
Africa. After winning the African Cup of Nations in January for the first time, Senegal was looking good to go far in Qatar. But national optimism has been dampened by Ballon d'Or runner-up and national hero Sadio Mané having to stay home due to a last-minute injury. Still, the team is stacked with stars playing in Europe — especially Chelsea full-back Kalidou Koulibaly and tireless Everton midfielder Idrissa Gueye.
What's more, ahead of the presidential election in 2024, the performance of the Teranga Lions may be of political significance, says Africa analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu.
"The ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition has lost voter support over the last 18 months, so officials are hoping that a deep run in the tournament will indirectly boost domestic perceptions of their stewardship, particularly as President Macky Sall continues to mull an unconstitutional third-term bid," End-Kalu explains. "Unfortunately for Sall, recent history suggests that a potential [approval] rating bump will be short-lived at best.”
Indeed, he adds, the wild celebrations in February did not prevent the ruling coalition from losing its parliamentary majority a few months later: "Food for thought."
Europe. If you're a Serbia fan, the last thing you want is for this World Cup to get political again, says Matejic Strahinja from the office of the president. He has bitter memories of Russia 2018: Serbia lost to Switzerland with goals by two players originally from Kosovo who celebrated by flapping the double eagle from the Albanian flag to taunt Serbia, which fought a bitter war in Kosovo and refuses to recognize its independence.
In Qatar 2022, Strahinja looks forward to ditching the bitter Belgrade club rivalry between Red Star and Partizan to support Serbia as one.
"Support for one or the other runs in families, while neighborhoods or entire cities are split across fan club lines. However, one event stops all of that and unites Serbian fans every so often," he adds. "The World Cup is when these divisions turn into collective energy [behind supporting] the national team with the hopes that this time around, the guys might at least advance to the knockout stage.”
That is … until striker Alexsandar Mitrović misses a clear opportunity. After all, Strahinja — a Red Star diehard supporter — points out, “he used to play for Partizan."
Middle East & North Africa. “There’s a lot of excitement and buzz in the region over the first World Cup hosted by an Arab country, despite human rights issues in Qatar having become a focal point," says MENA analyst Sofia Meranto.
The emirate is using its hosting of the tournament to project regional soft power, with Qatari sports channel BeIN Sports broadcasting all matches for free. More broadly, she adds, the World Cup is “helping cement Qatar’s standing" in the region, where less than two years ago it was still under a blockade by four neighboring countries. This week, the opening ceremony was attended by the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. And in another first, the Qataris even allowed flights to bring in Israeli fans.
Meranto says to watch out for the Saudis, who "are probably eyeing closely what’s happening in Qatar as they’re hoping to host the World Cup in 2030, possibly with Egypt and Greece."This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
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A sculpture of the World Cup trophy is pictured in front of Khalifa International Stadium in Doha.
Reuters
Will politics or soccer win Qatar's World Cup?
November 16, 2022
Sunday is the day half the world has been eagerly awaiting for four years. The men's soccer World Cup — the most-watched event of the most popular sport on the planet — kicks off in, of all places, Qatar.
Hold up. A World Cup in a tiny country with zero soccer tradition that’s never qualified for the tournament? Yep. And that’s just one reason why, so far, this particular edition has grabbed more headlines over its scandals than the Beautiful Game.
First, Qatar has been called out for its dismal human rights record, especially regarding migrant workers. In February 2021, a bombshell report by The Guardian claimed that more than 6,500 guest laborers from South Asia had died while building the stadiums. (The Qataris, of course, deny it all.)
And then there's how Qatar treats LGBTQ people. Same-sex relationships are strictly banned, transgender people must undergo conversion therapy, and until a couple of months ago LGBTQ people were still being detained for no reason other than, well, being LGBTQ. Doha has tried to downplay it, but the tournament's official ambassador did it no favors when he told German TV that homosexuality is "damage in the mind."
Second, it all reeks of corruption. And that's on both sides: Qatar and FIFA, the governing body of world soccer, with a long and checkered history of being riddled with graft.
Ever since it awarded the 2022 tournament to Qatar — and the 2018 edition to Russia — over higher-merit bids almost 12 years ago, FIFA hasn't been able to shake the widely held suspicion that bribes were taken. The scandal blew wide open in 2015, when the FBI indicted some top officials for running FIFA like a mafia and forced longtime President Sepp Blatter to step down.
But even after FIFA admitted missing red flags like the sizzling temperature, it decided to keep Qatar as host. The consequence? For the first time, the World Cup was rescheduled for the winter months, requiring domestic soccer championships everywhere to take a two-month break in the middle of the season (allegedly) thanks to gas-rich Qatar's deep pockets.
FIFA got away with it because, quite simply, it has too much global sway. Indeed, the political power that comes with deciding who gets to host the most-followed sporting event on the planet cannot be understated.
Qatar, for its part, is using the World Cup to pitch itself as a peace-loving Middle Eastern country that wants to attract more tourism and foreign investment, sell more of its plentiful natural gas, and project more soft power in a notoriously volatile region.
There's been (some) backlash. In the run-up to the tournament, Qatar has become toxic for celebrities. While singers like Rod Stewart or Dua Lipa were praised for turning down hefty sums to headline the opening ceremony, Nicki Minaj got flak for recording the tournament’s theme song following the social media outcry over Qatar's anti-LGBT laws.
Meanwhile, in Europe activist fans have piled on by calling for a boycott. Whether that means not watching in person or not watching at all is unclear, but so far the strongest national team reaction has come from Denmark, whose players will wear "toned-down" uniforms in Qatar.
Yet, despite all the controversy, the vast majority of soccer nuts around the globe will still tune in. Why?
For one thing, it's not the first time a World Cup host has had a dodgy human rights record. After all, Argentina won its first trophy at home in 1978 while the country was run by a fearsome military junta. For another, the political stuff usually stops when the ball starts rolling.
Once the tournament is underway, most fans’ attention will switch quickly from human rights to the human magic expected from the feet of megastars like Leo Messi, Kylian Mbappé, or Neymar. (We'd mention Cristiano Ronaldo too, but he's in a bit of a slump these days.)
So, dear reader, let's kick the question over to you: Will the story of Qatar 2022 be scandal or soccer? And while we're at it, who do you think will win? The smart money seems to be on Argentina and Brazil, but there are plenty of underdogs — hello, Senegal — with a shot at going all the way.
Let us know your thoughts on either here.This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
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A model of a natural gas pipeline, a Euro banknote and a torn EU flag placed on a Russian flag.
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic
Hard Numbers: EU gas price dip, Swedish camera thieves, Myanmar festival attack, Qatar vs. LGBTQ
October 24, 2022
100: The cost of burning natural gas to produce a megawatt hour of electricity in Europe has dipped below 100 euros ($99) for the first time since Russia began cutting supplies to the EU earlier this year. Experts say milder-than-expected weather and topped-up storage units are to thank for the price relief. Can it last?
160: Swedish police are investigating at least 160 recent midnight thefts of speed trap cameras on public roads. No one is sure who’s doing it, but the fact that thieves are routinely making off with specific camera parts has given rise to a weird theory: Is heavily sanctioned Russia behind the heists as a way to get dual-use technology for its drones?
60: Myanmar’s military junta sent fighter jets to attack a festival held by the ethnic separatists of the Kachin Independence Army, killing as many as 60 of the group’s members late Sunday. Since seizing power almost two years ago, the dictatorship has faced stiff resistance from an array of ethnic militias.
6: Authorities in Qatar, where homosexuality is illegal, have detained and abused at least six LGBTQ Qataris for “immoral activity” since 2019, according to Human Rights Watch. The 2022 FIFA World Cup begins in the Gulf kingdom next month.
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The logo of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project is seen at a rolling plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia.
REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
What We're Watching: Russian gas pipeline problems, China's economic slump, the other mobilization
September 27, 2022
Did someone blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
The operator of the two Nord Stream gas pipelines, which run from Russia to Western Europe under the Baltic Sea, reported “unprecedented” leaks and massive pressure drops on Tuesday, stoking fears of foul play. Nord Stream was not actually carrying gas to Europe at the time — the EU froze approvals for the new Nord Stream 2 line after Russia invaded Ukraine, and Russia halted existing flows through Nord Stream 1 in August, blaming Western sanctions. But the incident comes as Europe bundles up for winter with substantially reduced shipments of Russian gas. Seismologists recorded explosions in the area on Monday, and European officials have suggested sabotage, but so far there is no hard evidence. Russian officials, for their part, lamented the incident’s impact on “energy security,” while some pro-government outlets have suggested American sabotage. If it were deliberate, who’d benefit most from blowing up a non-operational pipeline? Apart from the geopolitical intrigue, there are environmental concerns too — the line is now leaking gargantuan amounts of methane, churning up the sea off the Danish island of Bornholm.
China turns from Asia’s economic leader to laggard
The bad news just keeps coming in what has been the worst year for China's economy since Xi Jinping took over in 2012. The World Bank predicts that China's GDP will expand this year by just 2.8% — half the government's modest target of 5.5% and less than the average for the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990. What a turnaround for “the world’s factory,” which for decades led the region with double-digit annual GDP growth. How did we get here? Well, Xi's stubborn refusal to relax the zero-COVID policy has certainly done a number on the economy and global supply chains. A real estate sector crisis, piling debt, and an ongoing energy crunch have only made things worse. What can Xi do? Implement broad structural reforms that could upend the Chinese economic model. But don’t expect that anytime soon. Right now, Xi is only thinking about next month's 20th Congress of the ruling Communist Party, where he'll get a third five-year term as CCP boss. Watch to see whether Xi appoints more economists and technocrats over loyalists to senior party posts, which might indicate that fixing the economy takes priority over ensuring loyalty to him at all costs.
What We're Drafting: Security guards for the World Cup
Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization of reservists to fight in Ukraine has grabbed global headlines, but there’s another draft in the works for a less nefarious purpose. Two months out from the men’s soccer World Cup in Qatar, Doha is calling up hundreds of civilians for mandatory military duty as ... security guards. The drastic recruitment drive reflects the scale of effort needed as the Gulf nation of 2.8 million — only 380,000 of whom are citizens — prepares for an influx of 1.2 million people for (arguably) the world's biggest sporting event. The conscripts, including diplomats recalled from overseas, will do their “patriotic duty” by frisking fans for weapons, drugs, and (gasp!) booze — a big no-no in a Muslim country. (But Qatar will allow ticketed fans to drink Budweiser, an official sponsor, outside of stadiums before and after matches.) The security guards are being trained with hour-long marches to keep fit and have been told to treat all fans equally, based on the UN Declaration of Human Rights, which clearly did not apply to the thousands of migrant workers who died while building the World Cup stadiums.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
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Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani meets Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt, June 2022.
Amiri Diwan via Reuters
Hard Numbers: Egypt-Qatar bonding, Thai activist jailed for dressing up, Hungary's ‘fetal heartbeat’ law, fatal kangaroo incident, Ken Starr dies
September 13, 2022
5: Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah-el Sisi visited Qatar on Tuesday for the first time in five years. In 2017, Egypt – along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain – cut diplomatic ties with Doha, citing its support for terror groups, which Qatar denied. Mired in an economic crisis, Cairo now wants to boost economic ties with Qatar and other wealthy Gulf states.
2: A Thai activist has been jailed for two years for the crime of … dressing like the queen. The charges are linked to a 2020 demonstration in Bangkok, where she donned a silk pink dress that authorities say mocked the queen’s attire. Thailand has notoriously strict laws banning criticism of the monarchy.
12: Hungary’s parliament has passed a new ‘fetal heartbeat’ law requiring all women to listen to their fetus’s heartbeat before proceeding with an abortion, which is legal in Hungary up until 12 weeks (sometimes later for health complications). Hungary’s conservative PM Viktor Orbán has long sought to bolster “traditional family values” and boost the country’s birthrate.
86: An Australian man has been killed by a kangaroo, marking the first fatal kangaroo attack Down Under in 86 years. The man, living in Western Australia, was reportedly keeping the marsupial as a pet, and it’s unclear whether he had a permit to do so. Authorities said the animal was killed by police because it was preventing paramedics from reaching the injured man.130: Kenneth Starr died at age 76 yesterday. A well-known legal mind, Starr became a household name in the 1990s with his investigation of President Bill Clinton, which led to the first impeachment of a US president in 130 years. He also represented Big Tobacco, Jeffrey Epstein, and former President Donald Trump.
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