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Palestinians search for food among burnt debris in the aftermath of an Israeli strike on an area designated for displaced people, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 27, 2024.
Rafah refugee deaths draw condemnation
“A tragic mistake.” With those words, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahuattempted to mitigate the fallout from last week’s airstrike in Rafah that killed 45 Palestinians sheltering in a refugee camp. The US National Security Council expressed heartbreak over the “devastating images,” and French President Emmanuel Macron called for an immediate cease-fire. Germany and Qatar also criticized the attacks, stressing the need for better protection of civilians.
“We are investigating the case and will draw conclusions because this is our policy,” Netanyahu told the Knesset on Monday. “For us it’s a tragedy, for Hamas it’s a strategy.”
But the deaths have intensified scrutiny of Israel, with the UN and international courts demanding a halt to the Rafah offensive. They also come as three European countries — Ireland, Norway, and Spain — are set to recognize Palestinian statehood on Tuesday. Israel described the decision as “rewarding terrorism” and recalled its envoys from the three countries for urgent consultations.
Amid the chaos, new peace negotiations are apparently set to commence, “led by the mediators, Egypt, and Qatar and with active US involvement,” according to a source who spoke with Reuters. However, Hamas later told the news agency that "there is no date" for the talks to resume.An Israeli medic walks near soldiers and an ambulance after Hamas claimed responsibility for an attack on the Kerem Shalom crossing near Israel's border with Gaza in southern Israel, on May 5, 2024.
Israel and Hamas deal up in smoke?
Hope for a cease-fire faded again Sunday as Hamas left the talks in Cairo. This came just days after the group said it saw the latest proposal – thought to have included a 40-day pause in fighting in exchange for the release of hostages – “in a positive light.” But Hamas’ insistence that a deal for the hostages bring an end to the war was a non-starter for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Our test is to continue and stand together until we reach victory,” Netanyahu said Sunday. Hamas plans to return to Cairo on Tuesday, but Israel, which is preparing for a ground operation in Rafah that’s set to start “soon,” ordered around 100,000 civilians living in parts of Rafah to evacuate on Monday morning.
Meanwhile, Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' armed wing, fired rockets on the Kerem Shalom crossing from Gaza into Israel on Sunday, killing three IDF soldiers and wounding 11 others. Israel closed the crossing, which will further complicate the flow of humanitarian aid, as the director of the World Food Program declared a “full-blown famine” in northern Gaza – a claim disputed by Israel.
Israel also closed Al Jazeera’s operations on Sunday after Netanyahu reportedly said it was “time to expel the mouthpiece of Hamas.” The Israeli Cabinet ordered a shutdown of the Qatari-owned media company’s local operations “for as long as the war in Gaza continues.” Authorities then raided a hotel room used by the network in Jerusalem, confiscating equipment.
The decision prompted criticism from the Foreign Press Association and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, which urged the Israeli government to overturn the ban.Biden and Trudeau face headwinds … from Gaza
Last Thursday, after Joe Biden promised during his State of the Union to build a pier to deliver aid to Gaza, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet shook the president’s hand, congratulated him on the speech, and urged him to push Israel to do more on “humanitarian stuff.”
Biden, caught on a hot mic, nodded in agreement and said he was pressing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “I told him, Bibi, don’t repeat this, but we are going to have a come-to-Jesus meeting.”
The next day, in the multicultural Toronto suburb of Mississauga, Justin Trudeau's International Development Minister Ahmed Hussenannounced that Canada would resume funding the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. Israel has alleged that 12 employees were involved in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, leading most Western countries to withdraw aid.
Unhappy progressives
Both Biden and Trudeau are responding to pressure to shift their positions on the war in Gaza, which has rattled their electoral coalitions, posing serious challenges for them as they head toward elections in November in the United States and 2025 in Canada.
The White House is aware of the problem. Biden’s aides have had to take steps to avoid pro-Palestinian protests, booking him into smaller venues and holding back event details until the last minute to keep protesters from being able to disrupt him. That is making it hard for him to get his message about student loan relief out on university campuses.
The horrible death toll in Gaza, where thousands of civilians have been killed since October, has led to despair and anger among progressives, not just among people with roots in the Middle East, but among young people and people of color.
There has been a significant generational shift in public opinion. A December New York Times poll found 46% of 18-to-19-year-olds are more sympathetic to Palestinians, compared to 27% who are sympathetic to Israel.
“I tell people all the time, 50 years ago when we had a demonstration from the White House it would be 50 people, all of whom had an Arabic accent, and today it’s tens of thousands of people, and it's a group as diverse as America that's showing up,” says James J. Zogby, founder of the Arab American Institute.
Michigan in the balance
In February’s Democratic presidential primary in Michigan, 13% of voters chose “uncommitted,” sparking similar protest movements in other states, a way for progressives to signal their unhappiness with Biden’s support for Israel in the Gaza war. But unlike the other states, Michigan, home to about 500,000 Arab Americans, is vital if Biden hopes to stay in the White House.
“Michigan had a huge impact because it is difficult to come up with a map where Democrats win the White House without Michigan in the mix, and the percentage of Arab voters in Michigan is high enough to make the difference,” says Zogby.
While the fear isn’t that these voters would flip sides for Donald Trump, the threat is real, says Clayton Allen, US director for the Eurasia Group. “Michigan is a great example where if you see the decline in Arab-American support hold through the election, that would be enough votes — if they would not show up to vote … — that would be enough to erase what had been his margin of victory in 2020.”
Nobody on Trudeau’s side
The situation in Canada is similar. Progressives are so frustrated with the Trudeau government’s position on the war that urban areas once considered safe for the Liberals may now be out of reach for the party.
Trudeau’s fence-sitting on the Gaza war has not endeared him to pro-Israel voters either.
“The Liberal Party has lost, largely, both communities, because they’ve tried to have it both ways,” says pollster Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Research.
“For electoral purposes, it’s not really great to have nobody on your side,” says one Liberal organizer.
The Liberals have been behind in the polls for so long that some would like to replace Trudeau before the election, but a leadership race while the war continues could be dominated by arguments over Gaza, potentially damaging the party.
The war is not causing similar problems for conservatives in either country, because their coalitions don’t include progressives who are angered by the bombing. They can sit back and watch as their progressive opponents struggle to keep their coalitions together.
Both Biden and Trudeau appear to be in no-win positions. They are angering their progressive bases but would anger other constituencies if they move too far the other way.
“Outside of that young progressive block, most US voters, in total, support US military backing of Israel,” says Allen. “So Biden does bear a risk if he skews too hard to the left. Everyone else can attack him for abandoning Israel. I think that's been one of the limiting factors. It's why we see Biden try to walk this tightrope.”
Both leaders would benefit from bringing the temperature down, which will only happen after the bombs stop falling on Gaza. Few outside Canada have much reason to be greatly concerned about Trudeau’s position, but the United States provides $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel every year, which gives Biden leverage over Netanyahu.
He may need to use it soon to give himself time to win back the progressives whose votes he needs to keep Trump out of the White House.
Pro-Palestine protesters march in London.
Hard Numbers: Pro-Palestinian protests rock London, Machado prevails in Venezuela, drone shortage woes, Madagascan opposition, joint aerial exercise with Asian allies, a great Great Lake discovery
100,000: In London, 100,000 protesters chanted “Stop bombing Gaza” and waved Palestinian flags as they marched from Hyde Park to Whitehall on Saturday. Officials asked Brits to be mindful of the Jewish community, with Metropolitan Police reporting a 13-fold uptick in reports of antisemitic offenses this month compared to last year.
93: Industrial engineer Maria Corina Machado declared victory in the opposition's presidential primary in Venezuela late Sunday. With 26% of ballots counted, she had 93% of the vote. The question now is whether Nicolás Maduro will allow Machado — who's been officially banned from running for office — to challenge him in the 2024 presidential election.
10,000: Ukraine loses 10,000 drones a month in its war with Russia and is now facing a shortage of parts due to export restrictions by China. Concerns about the impact on Ukrainian defense capabilities have prompted a search for alternatives made elsewhere, including by domestic startups.
50,000: Madagascar’s opposition parties held a rally with 50,000 people to protest what they call an “illegitimate” election process ahead of general elections in November. Last month, the country’s constitutional court dismissed appeals to have President Andry Rajoelina’s candidacy declared void over his dual French nationality, angering opposition politicians who say voters do not want “foreigners” running the country.
1: South Korea, the United States, and Japan have held their first joint aerial exercise in the face of an escalating North Korean nuclear threat and a recent visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Pyongyang. South Korea and Japan host 80,000 American troops and are key American allies in the region.
128: A documentary about the invasive quagga mussel’s impact on the Great Lakes led to the discovery of a 128-year-old shipwreck. Filmmakers came across the Africa, a steamship that went missing in October 1895 while carrying coal from Ohio to Ontario, on the bottom of Lake Huron.