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Released hostage Evyatar David, who was kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and taken to Gaza, reacts upon arrival at the site of Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Hospital, in Petah Tikva, Israel, on October 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli hostages return home, China snaps back at Trump’s tariff threat, Madagascar’s president flees the country
The Israeli hostages are finally home – but what next for Gaza?
After two years in Hamas captivity, the last 20 living Israeli hostages – all of them men – have returned home from Gaza, sparking jubilant scenes both for the families and across the Jewish state. US President Donald Trump touted their return during a speech to the Knesset, declaring that Israel was “at peace.” As part of the deal, Israel released over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Though the ceasefire is holding in Gaza, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty over the fate of the enclave and its management, as thousands of Palestinians return home to destroyed neighborhoods. Hamas is reappearing on Gazan streets, and has been clashing with rival Palestinian clans in recent days – with dozens killed. Under Trump’s 20-point peace plan, Hamas will have no role in Gaza’s future, yet the US president said over the weekend that the militant group has “approval for a period of time” to run security there. But for how long?
China hits back following Trump’s tariff threat
There might be a ceasefire in Gaza, but the US-China trade war is heating up again, as Beijing pledged to hit back at Washington should Trump follow through with his Friday threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The US president is trying to bring the temperature down again, saying on social media yesterday that he doesn’t want to “hurt” China. He also appeared to retract his threat to cancel his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. Markets swung wildly over the weekend and into Monday amid the latest war of words between the world’s two biggest superpowers.
Madagascar’s president flees the country
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina fled the country on Monday, after the elite CAPSAT military unit joined the Gen-Z led protests that have raged across the country since September. CAPSAT further announced that they are taking over the army. The protests began over water and electricity shortages but have spiraled into grievances like corruption and quality of life. CAPSAT brought Rajoelina to power in a 2009 coup, but on Saturday announced that it would not shoot on the protesters and escorted them into the capital’s main square. The toppling of Madagascar’s government opens questions of who will lead the country next, and mirrors recent protests against ruling elites in countries like Nepal, Indonesia, and Morocco.Bedouin women walk on a road in the Nuseirat refugee camp area in the Gaza Strip on September 29, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Hamas ponders Gaza proposal, US government shutdown is nigh, “Gen Z” revolt in Madagascar, US-Africa trade deal to expire
All eyes on Hamas after Trump and Netanyahu announce Gaza deal
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday announced a proposal to end the war in Gaza. Under the plan, Israel would withdraw from Gaza in phases, and a group of Arab and Muslim-majority nations would oversee a Palestinian administration of the strip. Hamas would return all the remaining hostages and its fighters would get amnesty if they disarm. There was only a vague reference to Palestinian statehood. Arab and European leaders lauded the proposal but Netanyahu’s far right coalition partners have slammed it. The key question: will Hamas accept? The militant group said it would look at the deal in “good faith,” but has also suggested the deal is too favorable for Israel. The clock is ticking: Trump gave Hamas until Thursday to accept, warning that otherwise he would give Netanyahu “full backing” to continue his attempt, so far unsuccessful, to eliminate Hamas.
This US government shutdown could be different
With yet another federal government shutdown looming at midnight tonight, talks between congressional Democrats, Republicans, and the White House have stalled. Republicans want a short-term funding bill before negotiating one for the full fiscal year, while Democrats want to reinstate certain health care subsidies. Since any funding bill requires 60 votes in the Senate, the Democrats still have leverage even though the GOP has 53 seats. Under a shutdown, “non-essential” federal workers (think park rangers and social security administrators) are suspended until a deal is reached. But this time could be different: Trump is threatening to use any shutdown as an excuse to permanently fire thousands of federal employees. Who will blink first?
Madagascar’s Gen Z protests force government shake-up
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina says he’ll dissolve his government after days of “Gen Z” protests over chronic water and power outages. The demonstrations, led mostly by young people under the slogan “We want to live, not survive,” have spread to eight cities in the African island nation, and turned deadly. The UN says at least 22 people have been killed and 100 injured in clashes with security forces, though Madagascar’s government disputes those numbers. The protests mark the biggest test of Rajoelina’s rule since winning reelection in 2023. He apologized for government failures and promised a new cabinet within days.
Major US-Africa deal expires today
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a 25-year old trade deal that has given African exporters preferential access to the US market, is set to expire today, leaving billions of dollars of trade and hundreds of thousands of jobs across the continent in limbo. Read Zac Weisz’s recent explainer on the economic (and geopolitical!) implications here.
Kenyan workers prepare clothes for export at the New Wide Garment Export Processing Zone (EPZ) factory operating under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), in Kitengela, Kajiado County, Kenya, on September 19, 2025.
Is the US set to terminate a 33-country trade deal?
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade pact that allows many products from 32 sub-Saharan African states to have free access to US markets, is set to expire in less than a week.
The White House still hasn’t said whether it will renew it.
First signed in 2000 by then-US President Bill Clinton, who saw it as a way to spread democratic ideals in parts of Africa, the deal hasn’t always lived up to expectations. Trade between the countries involved did initially rise, but has since dropped. For most of the countries involved, exports under AGOA account for less than 1% of GDP.
“AGOA’s highly imperfect. It’s a trade regime, and some countries have clearly done better than others,” Brookings Institution senior fellow Witney Schneidman, who was involved in passing and implementing AGOA, told GZERO. “But it needs to be strengthened, not killed.”
Which African nations are the main beneficiaries? South Africa has been by far the biggest beneficiary in terms of raw numbers, exporting nearly $56 billion in non-petroleum products under AGOA from 2001-2022 – specifically, car manufacturers based in South Africa have benefitted immensely. Renewing AGOA was a big reason why South African President Cyril Ramaphosa travelled to Washington in May. Nigeria, the next biggest partner, exported $11.2 billion under AGOA in that timeframe.
As a proportion of output, the country most reliant on AGOA is one that reportedly “nobody has ever heard of”: Lesotho. This landlocked country in southern Africa has built a significant textiles and garments sector on the back of AGOA, such that exports under the trade agreement account for 10% of its total GDP. An end to AGOA, on top of the 15% tariffs implemented at the start of August, would devastate the country’s two million people.
“Lesotho is the biggest beneficiary today, with the least alternative to fill the economic gap,” Ronald Osumba, a political strategist who once ran to be Kenya’s vice president, told GZERO.
For other countries, the importance of AGOA revealed itself when they were no longer included in the pact. Ethiopia was suspended from the pact in 2022 over “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” during the Tigray War. Exports to the United States have plummeted since, several firms have left the country, and over ten thousand jobs are now gone. It was even worse for Madagascar when it was temporarily suspended from the pact in 2010: its GDP dropped 11%.
So what’s in AGOA for the US? Put simply, counterbalancing China and Russia.
“Africa is shifting east,” said Osumba. “China and Russia are having more influence on the continent today than any other time.” Renewing AGOA could help the US balance that influence.
Why does it matter? AGOA nations hold a sizable chunk of the world’s rare-earth minerals. Five of the top 15 sources of rare-earth minerals worldwide are in AGOA. In particular, the Democratic Republic of the Congo produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, a mineral that is needed for the production of electric minerals. If AGOA isn’t extended, Osumba warned, Washington’s access to these critical minerals could be curtailed.
“There’s a concern there for the US in terms of access to natural resources.”
For Schneidman, it’s not just access to critical minerals: It’s also about leaving business opportunities on the table. He argued that, when it comes to using “trade over aid,” the Trump administration isn’t putting its money where its mouth is, vacating the area to its own detriment.
What’s stopping the US from renewing? US President Donald Trump’s general approach to trade and tariffs provides some hints. He is unafraid to use levies as a way to punish countries who he believes distort markets – the high levies he placed on countries including Brazil, China, India, and South Africa are a testament to this. AGOA grants members states tariff-free to US markets, but doesn’t give American firms anything in return, so it’s possible that Trump sees this as unfair. Plus, his “America First” foreign policy suggests he doesn’t share Clinton’s desire for democracy to spread worldwide.
But Frank Matsaert, an African trade & infrastructure expert at the Tony Blair Institute, believes the punt on AGOA renewal goes beyond this: he believes there’s an information gap.
“They’re not as aware of the potential effects of not renewing it,” Matsaert told GZERO. “If AGOA isn’t renewed, that could threaten $42 billion of bilateral trade.”
Is there any chance of a last minute change? Osumba isn’t hopeful.
“If it was to be done, this conversation should have already started a long time ago.”
Matsaert, meanwhile, retains some hope, providing that someone tells the US president the value of AGOA to his nation.
“This has had a big, positive impact on Africa. It could continue to have a positive impact, particularly at a time when the US is trying to diversify its supply chains,” said Matsaert. “The US consumer benefits, Africa benefits. Why not extend this?”
Ukrainians visit a monument to Holodomor victims during a commemoration ceremony marking the 90th anniversary of the famine of 1932-33, against a backdrop of Russian drones attacking Kyiv.
Hard Numbers: Russian drones, Malagasy election, Ireland's clashes, China's illnesses, breakaway iceberg
75: Russia launched its biggest-ever drone attack on Kyiv on Saturday, firing 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones at the Ukrainian capital, and all but one were shot down. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack, noting that it came on the commemoration of the 1932-1933 Holodomor famine, engineered by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, which killed several million Ukrainians.
58.9: Madagascar’s incumbent President Andry Rajoelina is poised for a new term in office after garnering 58.9% of the vote in last week’s elections. Only 46% of voters cast a ballot after 10 of 12 rival parties refused to campaign and called for a boycott. They now refuse to recognize the results, which have to be formally validated by the country’s constitutional court.
34: Thirty-four people have been arrested in Dublin, Ireland, following clashes between right-wing protesters and police that saw widespread looting and rioting. The violence erupted after a man, who was falsely described as a foreign national, was taken into custody following last Thursday's stabbing of three schoolchildren outside a primary school.
13,000: Videos of Chinese hospitals overflowing with parents and children have circulated on social media. Beijing Children’s Hospital was admitting 7,000 patients daily as of late last week, and the largest pediatric hospital in Tianjin broke a record on Saturday, receiving more than 13,000 children. China told the World Health Organization the surge is due to the relaxing of COVID-19 restrictions and an increase in COVID-19, influenza, mycoplasma pneumoniae, and respiratory syncytial virus, not a novel virus.
1,500: One of the world’s largest icebergs is drifting beyond Antarctic waters after being grounded for more than three decades, according to the British Antarctic Survey. The iceberg is three times as large as New York City and over twice as big as Greater London, measuring around 1,500 square miles.Israelis protest in front of the Ministry of defense to free hostages taken by Hamas terrorist on October 7th 2023.
Hard Numbers: Gaza hostage talks continue, Brazilians bake, Thais toke, Record-scratch in Madagascar election
50: Negotiations to release some of the Hamas-held hostages in Gaza continued Wednesday, as Qatari mediators reportedly sought the release of 50 civilians in exchange for Israel agreeing to a three-day cease-fire. Hamas kidnapped more than 230 people during its Oct. 7 rampage. For more on the challenges facing hostage negotiations, here are comments from somebody who knows a thing or two about the subject.
100: More than 100 million people in Brazil are sweating it out amid one of the country’s worst heat waves in recent memory. Nearly 3,000 towns and cities are currently under heat alerts as temps climb above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Experts say the El Niño climate phenomenon is partly to blame. We say it’s a great excuse to watch the sweltering 1955 Brazilian neo-realist classic “Rio, 40 Degrees.” (Celsius, celsius!)
6,000: Thailand’s Parliament is looking to roll up the country’s nascent cannabis industry, as weed shops bloom across the country. Last year, Thailand became the first Asian country to decriminalize cannabis, but in the absence of clear rules for a legal marijuana industry, more than 6,000 weed dispensaries have opened. Fearing widespread addiction, lawmakers have rewritten draft laws to restrict recreational use, and focus on medicinal applications.
10: At least 10 of 12 opposition candidates are boycotting Madagascar’s presidential election, which is set to take place Thursday. They’re all rivals, but their main beef now is with President Andry Rajoelina, who they say should have been stripped of his Malagasy passport when he took French citizenship in 2014. They also say Rajoelina, a 49-year-old former DJ running for reelection, has packed the courts with allies and weakened the electoral authorities. Weeks of protests have met with violent crackdowns. With a boycott of this size, will the election even be seen as legitimate?Pro-Palestine protesters march in London.
Hard Numbers: Pro-Palestinian protests rock London, Machado prevails in Venezuela, drone shortage woes, Madagascan opposition, joint aerial exercise with Asian allies, a great Great Lake discovery
100,000: In London, 100,000 protesters chanted “Stop bombing Gaza” and waved Palestinian flags as they marched from Hyde Park to Whitehall on Saturday. Officials asked Brits to be mindful of the Jewish community, with Metropolitan Police reporting a 13-fold uptick in reports of antisemitic offenses this month compared to last year.
93: Industrial engineer Maria Corina Machado declared victory in the opposition's presidential primary in Venezuela late Sunday. With 26% of ballots counted, she had 93% of the vote. The question now is whether Nicolás Maduro will allow Machado — who's been officially banned from running for office — to challenge him in the 2024 presidential election.
10,000: Ukraine loses 10,000 drones a month in its war with Russia and is now facing a shortage of parts due to export restrictions by China. Concerns about the impact on Ukrainian defense capabilities have prompted a search for alternatives made elsewhere, including by domestic startups.
50,000: Madagascar’s opposition parties held a rally with 50,000 people to protest what they call an “illegitimate” election process ahead of general elections in November. Last month, the country’s constitutional court dismissed appeals to have President Andry Rajoelina’s candidacy declared void over his dual French nationality, angering opposition politicians who say voters do not want “foreigners” running the country.
1: South Korea, the United States, and Japan have held their first joint aerial exercise in the face of an escalating North Korean nuclear threat and a recent visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Pyongyang. South Korea and Japan host 80,000 American troops and are key American allies in the region.
128: A documentary about the invasive quagga mussel’s impact on the Great Lakes led to the discovery of a 128-year-old shipwreck. Filmmakers came across the Africa, a steamship that went missing in October 1895 while carrying coal from Ohio to Ontario, on the bottom of Lake Huron.
An artillery fire competition in North Korea.
Hard Numbers: North Korea lashes out, Cuba accepts US aid, UK/EU inflation skyrockets, Madagascar FM fired, MPs want Truss out
350: North Korea has fired more than 350 rounds of artillery shells at a buffer zone that was established in 2018 to ease tensions over the disputed border with South Korea. Kim Jong Un is furious about Seoul's latest military exercises, which include joint drills with US and Japanese forces.
2 million: Cuba has accepted a US offer of $2 million in humanitarian assistance to help the island recover from Hurricane Ian. The storm knocked out the power last month, sparking rare protests against the socialist regime.
10.1 & 10.9: UK year-on-year inflation reached 10.1% in September, yet another 40-year high, while Eurozone inflation jumped to 10.9%. Rising prices might give both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank no choice but to keep jacking up interest rates until inflation is brought under control.
143: Madagascar's foreign minister was canned for being one of the 143 UN member states that voted against Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian regions. The southern African island nation had until now always abstained on UN resolutions about the war in Ukraine, like many of Moscow's friends on the continent.
13: That's the number of British MPs who've already called for embattled Prime Minister Liz Truss to resign. Truss is now hanging on to a thread after a chaotic vote in the House of Commons and the departure of Home Secretary Suella Braverman.
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