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Warplanes strike Russian drones inside Poland
In this episode of GZERO Europe, Carl Bildt discusses Russia’s drone incursions into Poland.
Nineteen drones crossed into Polish airspace with some intercepted and shot down by warplanes. Bildt says the move by Russia was intentional and warns that “this is a clear act of aggression."
If tolerated, Bildt cautions it risks setting “a pattern where Russia step by step is going to up and increase this sort of direct, indirect attacks … not only against Ukraine… but also against NATO countries.”
Here’s what you missed while you were away
As summer winds down this weekend, here are the geopolitical stories you may have missed while your inbox was on “out of office” — the ones we expect will have the biggest impact this fall.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes. But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts: Sudan.
With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
Is Sudan a sign of future of warfare? Read more here.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
When a gunman shot Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June, it sparked memories of the deadly decades-long internal conflict from late last century when political assassination attempts were a common occurrence.
Fast forward nearly three months, Uribe is now dead, and the violence between dissidents and the military has intensified – there have been multiple reports of mass kidnappings of government soldiers. Left-wing President Gustavo Petro has pledged to clamp down on the violence, but he can’t seem to put a lid on things: the number of kidnappings and killings of human rights activists have soared over the last few years.
This will likely cost the left, politically speaking. The rising violence is prompting more and more Colombians to seek a tough-on-crime leader, damaging Petro’s hopes that a socialist candidate will win next year’s presidential election – the incumbent leader can’t run again.
The shift in Colombia’s politics is also something of a proxy for the rest of South America. Other countries with left-wing leaders, like Bolivia and Chile, have also tilted right, seeking leaders who will keep them safe. Bolivians ousted the socialists from power for the first time in decades. Chile’s elections in November will be the next test for the South American left, before Colombia’s election next May.
Will the rising violence hurt the Colombian left? Read more here.
Is MAGA bailing on Bibi?
In early July, there were some rumblings of discontent within the Trump administration at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An Israeli shell had struck a church in Gaza, settlers had attacked a Christian Palestinian village, and the Israeli Defense Forces had bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus – against the White House’s wishes.
But the disquiet was only the tip of the iceberg: Trump supporters, especially younger ones, are becoming more and more critical of Israel, questioning the US’s support for the Jewish State. Though younger Republicans aren’t nearly as critical as younger Democrats, this trend is a concerning one for Israel, as the country has relied heavily on US military aid. Republicans have been particularly sympathetic toward Israel in recent history, so to lose their backing would be drastic.
Soon after the piece was published, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – a MAGA firebrand – became the first House Republican to label Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” affirming that the GOP is no longer united behind supporting Israel. Read the original GZERO report here.
Is AI why college grads can’t find jobs?
The kids are not alright. Since we opened the Pandora’s Box of chatbots, new grads have faced higher unemployment than the national average for the first time in decades. Which raises the question: are they the canaries in the coal mine that AI-driven job disruption has begun?
“It just seems like there’s not any more entry-level roles,” reports James Kettle, a 25-year-old Columbia University graduate who’s been on the job hunt since May. His experience is echoed in a new Stanford study, which found hiring in AI-exposed occupations for early-career workers is down 13%.
Even if we can’t be certain AI is totally to blame for stealing young people’s existing jobs (yet), it’s making it harder for them to get hired in the first place. Delia Thompson, a 23-year-old University of Virginia graduate who’s been on the hunt for seven months, describes the job process today as “shouting into the void,” as she and other candidates send thousands of AI-assisted resumes through LinkedIn, only for companies to use their own algorithms to sift through the pile – a loop of bots talking to bots. “It makes it feel like a total lottery,” says Thompson.
This is reshaping their political views and how many young people are viewing AI overall. Read more here.
Enaam Abdallah Mohammed, 19, a displaced Sudanese woman and mother of four, who fled with her family, looks on inside a camp shelter amid the ongoing conflict between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army, in Tawila, North Darfur, Sudan July 30, 2025.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes.
But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts.
In Sudan, a country of 50 million people in the Sahel region of Africa, a brutal civil war is taking place between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Now drones are exacerbating the crisis.
Back up a second: how did this war begin? The Sudanese Civil War pits two army leaders – Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Dagalo – against each other. While the pair were once allied in ousting Sudan’s long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir, a bitter rivalry between them erupted in 2023, plunging the country into an all-out civil war that has claimed as many as 150,000 lives and left an estimated 14 million displaced. Half of the country is in desperate need of food assistance, and there are reports of an ongoing genocide in the western region of Darfur.
“It’s really the full set of a catastrophe,” says Sarra Majdoub, a Sudan analyst for the UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts. “Everyone is really struggling, the humanitarian needs are huge.”
A growing disaster. With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
“There’s this race for militarization and getting more and more weaponry,” says Majdoub.
In May, the RSF launched several drone strikes on the Red Sea city of Port Sudan, where thousands had sought refuge from fierce fighting in Khartoum. The following month, five members of a UN aid convoy were killed in an aerial strike while delivering life-saving assistance to the famine-stricken North Darfur.
How did high-tech drones make it to Sudan? “Drones are often delivered in pieces, disguised as civilian goods or humanitarian aid, and reassembled,” says Dr Andreas Krieg, a Middle East and North Africa expert at King’s College London.
But understanding why UAVs ended up in the hands of SAF and RSF fighters requires a broader look at the region – and the external powers fueling the war.
Situated along the Red Sea, Sudan occupies a strategic geographic position with access to valuable natural resources, including fertile agricultural land and precious minerals like gold. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have invested billions in Sudan’s agriculture sector, while Egypt – which shares a 793-mile border with Sudan – sees its own security as closely linked to its southern neighbor.
“The conflict is geopolitically embedded,” Majdoub adds.
Despite a partial UN arms embargo on Sudan, foreign weapons continue to play a significant role in the conflict.
High-impact UAVs are especially attractive because they can be produced at scale, are low cost, and are easily smuggled through clandestine supply networks.
While analysts like Krieg accuse Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and Russia of helping build up the SAF’s aerial capabilities, several reports suggest the RSF is receiving covert support from the UAE – a claim Abu Dhabi denies.
“We’re seeing the emergence of a new kind of warfare – one in which surrogate forces can be armed and equipped to wage high-tech battles, without ever having to be officially recognized or formally allied,” adds Krieg.
Caught in the crossfire. As foreign powers appear to advance their competing agendas, and drones flood the zone, it is Sudan’s civilians who are bearing the costs.
“Drones have made the war feel omnipresent. They strike without warning, often in places that were once considered safe,” says Krieg. “This sense of constant, inescapable threat has become part of daily life in many parts of Sudan.”
Ukraine drone strikes deep inside Russia
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt provides an update on the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Bildt highlights Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on Russian bomber bases that was “beyond what you see in James Bond movies.” The bold Ukrainian operation comes amid a shifting geopolitical landscape that may be encouraging Russia to double down. Bildt notes that Russia’s maximalist demands and Trump’s apparent withdrawal of pressure on Putin have emboldened Moscow to continue military operations. Bildt warns, “we are facing further tragic months of war in the East of Europe."
Leading Republican senators during their weekly briefing in the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: “Big Beautiful” bill heads for the Senate, UK gives up Chagos Islands, Taiwan pivots to drones
House passes Trump’s tax agenda, but senators will now have their say
By a margin of just one vote, the US House early on Thursday passed a budget bill containing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda, which centers on making his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some last-minute changes to the bill helped to get it over the line: House Republicans increased the SALT-cap to $40,000 and accelerated the introduction of work requirements for Medicaid. But can the GOP get the bill through the US Senate? Lawmakers in the upper chamber are already plotting changes to the legislation...
You can Chagos your own way: UK hands islands back to Mauritius, leases back base
More than two centuries after taking the Chagos Islands from France, the United Kingdom relinquished the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius, but will continue to lease a US-UK military base there, on the island of Diego Garcia, for another 99 years. The UK says the deal, which creates a 24-mile buffer zone around the base, is meant to ensure its long-term security amid growing Chinese aggression in the area. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the deal.
Taiwan adds new drone units as part of shifting military strategy
Ever wary of a potential Chinese invasion, Taiwan announced that it will introduce its first-ever drone units this year. The move is part of Taipei’s evolving strategy of effectively deterring Beijing rather than preparing for a direct fight. “Overall, the cross-strait military balance still tilts toward China’s favor, since China spends a lot more on defense,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. “So it’s more pragmatic for Taiwan to be a ‘porcupine,’ so to speak.”North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervises the test of suicide drones with artificial intelligence at an unknown location, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on March 27, 2025.
North Korea preps new kamikaze drones
This development, which broke late last week, follows trends in militarization around the world, particularly in the United States and China. We’re already seeing them on the battlefield in the war between Ukraine and Russia. AI-powered drones are handling 80% of strikes, according to our recent interview with former Ukrainian defense advisor Kateryna Bondar, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. However, she stressed that humans are still needed in the loop and that we’re a long way away from “killer robots.”
North Korea has traditionally lagged behind the major superpowers on military development, but AI presents another opportunity to level the playing field if it can get access to the right technology and materials.
Hard Numbers: US and Mexico reach water deal, Russia and Ukraine smash drone records, US students look abroad after Trump win, Indonesia’s new president walks non-aligned line, Haiti's interim leader fired
18: After 18 months of talks, the US and Mexico announced on Saturday that they have reached a new water-sharing agreement. The accord revises and makes more flexible a decades-old pact under which Mexico provides water from the Rio Grande to the US Southwest in exchange for water from the Colorado River. The breakthrough comes amid growing concerns about water scarcity on both sides of the border. (For more on the complicated (geo)politics of the Colorado River, see our report here).
84 and 145: Russia and Ukraine each launched their largest drone attacks ever against the other side this weekend. Moscow said it intercepted at least 84 Ukrainian drones, at least 34 of which were aimed at the capital city itself, while Kyiv said Russia had launched at least 145 unmanned craft of its own. Both sides said they shot down the majority of the other’s drones. The barrages come as both sides try to game out the impact of Trump 2.0, with the president-elect having pledged to end the war in “24 hours” when he returns to office.
500: The number of US students seeking to study abroad has spiked in the days since Donald Trump won the presidential election. A leading provider of information on foreign education opportunities reported that average inquiries jumped nearly 500% to 11,000 a day since last Tuesday night. College students were one of the few demographics that overwhelmingly supported Kamala Harris, with polls showing more than 70% favoring the vice president.
10 billion: Indonesia’s new president hailed cooperation with China, signing $10 billion in new business and security deals with the country at a forum in Beijing on Sunday. Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and businessman who took office last month, has praised China’s emergence as a “civilizational power” but also said Indonesia would remain “non-aligned.” His first trip abroad as president will take him from Beijing to Washington, DC, and then to South America and the UK.
6: Haiti’s interim Prime Minister Garry Conille was fired on Sunday after just six months on the job. The country’s transitional council, established to restore democratic order amid increasing gang violence, signed a decree to dismiss Conille, replacing him with businessman Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, the former president of Haiti’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The decree is set to be published on Monday.
An FPV drone with an attached portable grenade launcher is seen during a test flight conducted by Ukrainian servicemen of the 'Bulava' Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Unit of the Separate Presidential Brigade at their position near a frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, on Oct. 11, 2024.
Ukraine deploys AI-powered drones against Russia
Instead, these new drones use software from the Ukrainian company NORDA Dynamics, which uses computer vision — a type of artificial intelligence technology — to direct the drones to their targets. An unnamed Ukrainian official told Reuters this summer that the hit rates of manually controlled drones had fallen to 30–50%, and predicted at the time that the new drones could achieve 80% hit rates if successful.
Russia and Ukraine are racing toward automating their militaries — and sometimes that means drones vs. drones. For instance, the Ukrainian military is using drones to take down Russian camera reconnaissance drones that help Russian forces identify targets on the ground in Ukraine. The Washington Post has also reported that Russian drones have indiscriminately targeted civilians in the Ukrainian city of Kherson. It’s unclear whether Ukraine’s new drones can down these exact drones yet, but it’s clear that the two warring countries are already engaged in a drone-on-drone war.