We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Netanyahu losing the PR battle amid public outrage over the IDF strike killing seven aid workers?
I think Israel is losing the information war around the world, not just with the Global South, which was certainly true a few months ago, but increasingly even with Israel's closest allies. I'm hearing from the Germans, from the French, you know, from the Canadians, from the United States, that there is really a lot of upset with the unwillingness to take far greater care about civilian casualties while the Israelis are engaging in massive airstrikes still across Gaza. And of course, especially if we see strikes into Rafah, where well over a million Palestinians are trying to shelter. It's a big problem for the Israelis. It's a big problem for Netanyahu, but no end in sight, right now. And the potential for the war to escalate continues to be very, very real.
What's needed to garner bipartisan support for Speaker Mike Johnson's bill for increased Ukraine aid?
We have bipartisan support. There is overwhelming majority support among Democrats and Republicans to pass aid for Ukraine, likely 60 billion. Could be structured as a loan. Doesn't really matter. It’s not like anyone believes the Ukrainians will be in a position to pay it off any time soon. Makes it more palatable for Trump supporters who have heard the former president say, “not one more dime in direct foreign aid,” has to all be structured as loans in case we don't like them in the future, then they have to pay it back. What if they can't? Who knows? But anyway, that's the structure. The point is that the Ukrainians who have continued to be able to mostly hold their defensive lines, they've lost some territory recently, in part because they don't have enough troops on the ground. They are pushing through more mobilization, but also because they don't have enough artillery and ammunition, enough military equipment. And that is coming some from the Europeans, more soon from the Americans this month, I suspect the next couple of weeks that happens.
What's the significance of Turkey's recent local elections setback for President Erdogan's government?
It is the first time in a couple of decades since Erdogan took power that his party did not win. They didn't get a majority, and instead it was the opposition. And that's a big deal. Even those municipal elections. Look, it doesn't mean the end of Erdogan. He doesn't have to stand for presidential elections, no parliamentary elections until 2028. So it's quite a while. But it does show that elections matter in a country like Turkey as much as Erdogan would like them not to. And it is mostly about lack of comfort with his government's performance on the economy, a lot more pressure to perform adequately. And the mayor of Istanbul is an erstwhile serious challenger to the Turkish president. So, I mean, his ability to change the constitution and consolidate more power, his ability to ensure that his party is going to be in control after 2028 has just gone down quite a bit. And that means he has to be more careful, more cautious and more focused on performing on the economy for his own people.
Mayorkas impeachment: Reps. Lofgren & Spartz on House vote on DHS secretary
The US House of Representatives is voting on a Republican-led resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the immigration crisis on the southern border. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), who both sit on the House Immigration subcommittee, moments before the vote took place for their thoughts on the first impeachment of a cabinet secretary in modern history.
“[The impeachment] has nothing to do with meeting the constitutional standards,” Lofgren, former chair of the Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement, tells Bremmer, “It’s a complete waste of time.”
House Democrats say the vote is unconstitutional and politically motivated, but the GOP, which has a razor-thin three-vote majority in the House, accuse Mayorkas of a “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” and beaching public trust.
“I always believe that ultimate responsibility lays [with] the top executive,” GOP Rep. and Ukrainian American Spartz argues, “We need to send the message that can’t allow executives not to do their duty to the public.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television beginning this Saturday, February 10. Check local listings.
Meet Mike Johnson, US House Speaker & DC's most Googled person
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
Who is Mike Johnson?
Mike Johnson became the most commonly Googled person in Washington, DC, this week when he won a surprising bid for the House speakership after Republicans failed to rally around multiple nominations from across their caucus once they removed former speaker Kevin McCarthy from his seat several weeks ago.
Johnson is a fourth-term congressman from Louisiana who is somewhere in the middle of the Republican conference, If you look at his voting record and ideological positions. He's got a lot of attention from the media for his role, both in trying to overturn the 2020 election results and also some of his comments on Social Security, Medicare, and abortion. But this is really a mainstream Republican House member who is going to struggle in his new role as speaker, having no leadership experience or any experience in passing bills whatsoever.
That lack of experience will be tested almost immediately with the upcoming November 17th government shutdown deadline and a bipartisan push to provide up to $106 billion in additional aid for Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, and, of course, securing the southern border. That package probably would pass the House and Senate overwhelmingly once it comes together out of the Senate. But Johnson himself is trying to leverage his role as speaker, along with his fellow conservatives, to get cuts and appropriate spending starting in 2024.
And that's going to be the big story of early next year, because what's likely to happen is that Johnson will punt government funding and take the threat of a government shutdown off the table into January or maybe even April. And make the rest of this year, this fight about foreign aid.
Speakerless House shows weakness to US adversaries, says Rep. Mike Waltz
It's not a particularly comfortable moment to be a House Republican on Capitol Hill. Unable to agree on a Speaker, the House remains paralyzed and unable to do crucial work on a wide array of domestic and foreign policy priorities. Israel, of course, is at the top of that list. Republican Congressman Mike Waltz worries that the paralysis on Capitol Hill is playing right into the hands of America's adversaries.
"Our adversaries smell weakness in Washington right now," Rep. Waltz tells Ian Bremmer on an episode of GZERO World. "We need to get our act together and move the country forward." And yet, the House remains without a Speaker. What will it take to remove this logjam and get the House back to work?
Watch more on this episode: America's tightrope walk with the Israel-Hamas war
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Paralyzed US House is an “absolute nightmare” - Sen. Chris Murphy
A House (of bickering Republicans) divided against itself, cannot stand. Forgive the redux of Abraham Lincoln's famous quote, but it seems particularly relevant in light of another week of total paralysis on Capitol Hill. Namely, within the House Republican caucus.
According to Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who sat down with Ian Bremmer for an interview on GZERO World, the chaos in the House chamber due to Republicans' inability to nominate a House speaker may, in fact, be a feature, not a bug. "The House is just an absolute nightmare, and it's a really bad look for the United States. It weakens President Biden's credibility abroad."
"Republicans are weakening America and weakening people's faith in government, but it has national security consequences when people don't know whether, even the things we have perfect consensus on, like support for Israel, can actually get a vote and pass."
Watch more on this episode: America's tightrope walk with the Israel-Hamas war
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Jordan’s shot for the speaker, close to no avail ›
- McCarthy is ousted as House speaker. What comes next? ›
- GOP-led US House will get tougher on China — but not as much as you'd think ›
- Paralyzed US House can’t even wave to Israel ›
- Meet Mike Johnson, US House Speaker & DC's most Googled person - GZERO Media ›
What's next after Kevin McCarthy's ouster?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Kevin McCarthy' is out. What's next?
So Kevin McCarthy today became the first speaker in American history to be removed from his job involuntarily, and the House is now going to be plunged into a period of uncertainty, with American governance losing the leader of one of its most important branches.
Patrick McHenry, a representative from North Carolina and an ally of Kevin McCarthy, is going to be the interim speaker and he will have to be able to execute most of the duties of the speaker, at least until there could be a new vote to replace him. But the question is going to be, who on earth has 218 votes to become speaker in this environment?
There's a small group of conservatives who are showing a lot of muscle here by taking McCarthy out, and they could do that to a future speaker as well, all over the issue of spending, and what's likely to happen now is that you get possibly flat funding on spending into next year. And the biggest loser from all of this could end up being Ukraine aid, because the same group that took McCarthy out are among the biggest opponents of additional Ukraine aid in the United States Congress, and that can make funding a new round of Ukraine aid well into 2024 a lot more difficult than the Biden administration was hope for.
So this could potentially have, this is a small vote that started with a disgruntled member from Florida, that could have massive geopolitical consequences that are felt for years.
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy
McCarthy’s promise to Trump could split House Republicans
Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy needs to decide whether to keep his promise to Donald Trump about calling for a vote to expunge the former president's two impeachments, the second of which was for his actions during the Jan. 6 riots.
Such a vote would force GOP House members to publicly denounce Trump or condone his actions – just as Trump is facing possible indictment for allegedly inciting the Jan. 6 riots. But McCarthy made a deal, and Trump is coming to collect.
Here’s the background. Last month, McCarthy found himself in the doghouse after suggesting on TV that Trump may not be the strongest GOP presidential candidate. Trump – who was pivotal in McCarthy’s rise to power – demanded the speaker endorse his campaign. But McCarthy, not ready to tie himself to Trump, stalled by promising to call the vote before Congress adjourns in August.
You’ll recall that McCarthy won the speakership by making the concession that only one GOP member is needed to call for his resignation, giving Trump’s allies in the house – who have threatened to oust McCarthy before – outsized power to hold the speaker to his word.
Many GOP House members, particularly those in Biden-won districts, aren’t keen to revisit the impeachments, especially the one regarding Jan. 6. Polling shows that most Americans disapprove of Trump’s actions during the insurrection. Meanwhile, constitutionally minded conservatives are questioning whether the House has the authority to erase an impeachment.
Jon Leiber, head of Eurasia Group’s US practice, says that “there is no constitutional process for expungement of an impeachment vote,” which gives Republicans a procedural scapegoat.
But regardless of whether McCarthy makes good on his promise, Trump won’t be satisfied until McCarthy endorses his candidacy, and he will continue to use his allies in the House to apply pressure if McCarthy waits too long.
Biden's first midterms: How does he stack up?
The Graphic Truth — Biden's first midterms: How does he stack up?
US midterm elections are always seen as a referendum on the president’s performance. When voters head to the polls this November, it will be the first time they’ve been able to cast a ballot at the national level since Joe Biden won the presidency in 2020. Things aren’t looking great for him: Biden’s approval rating hovers at 42%, and polls suggest that Democrats are slated to lose control of the House of Representatives. But this pessimistic forecast is not unique to Biden. Since Franklin D. Roosevelt occupied the White House (1933-1945), only two presidents (Clinton and W. Bush) have made gains in the lower chamber after midterm elections. We take a look at how Biden stacks up compared to his five predecessors less than two months before the midterms.
- Have Republicans ruined their chances of taking the Senate? - GZERO Media ›
- Herschel Walker's abortion news bad for GOP, but ad spend will determine control of US Senate - GZERO Media ›
- Will US Congress change Social Security? - GZERO Media ›
- Reading the US midterm election tea leaves - GZERO Media ›
- US midterms: Biden, Trump, or abortion/guns/race? - GZERO Media ›
- Can the US get its act together? Susan Glasser & Peter Baker on "the world’s greatest geopolitical crisis" - GZERO Media ›
- Inflation is top issue for US voters ahead of midterms - GZERO Media ›
- US voters think GOP can fix the economy, but can they? Not likely - GZERO Media ›
- "Red wave" coming in US midterms ›