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Graphic Truth: The Big, Beautiful, Expensive Bill
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned that the House-passed Republican tax and spending bill (the “Big, Beautiful Bill”) would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, raising concerns it will further exacerbate the US’s debt issue. Senate Republicans do plan to revise the bill: some push for deeper tax cuts – which would increase the cost of the bill – while others seek to scale back Medicaid and clean-energy benefits, which offset some of the costs.
Leading Republican senators during their weekly briefing in the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: “Big Beautiful” bill heads for the Senate, UK gives up Chagos Islands, Taiwan pivots to drones
House passes Trump’s tax agenda, but senators will now have their say
By a margin of just one vote, the US House early on Thursday passed a budget bill containing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda, which centers on making his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some last-minute changes to the bill helped to get it over the line: House Republicans increased the SALT-cap to $40,000 and accelerated the introduction of work requirements for Medicaid. But can the GOP get the bill through the US Senate? Lawmakers in the upper chamber are already plotting changes to the legislation...
You can Chagos your own way: UK hands islands back to Mauritius, leases back base
More than two centuries after taking the Chagos Islands from France, the United Kingdom relinquished the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius, but will continue to lease a US-UK military base there, on the island of Diego Garcia, for another 99 years. The UK says the deal, which creates a 24-mile buffer zone around the base, is meant to ensure its long-term security amid growing Chinese aggression in the area. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the deal.
Taiwan adds new drone units as part of shifting military strategy
Ever wary of a potential Chinese invasion, Taiwan announced that it will introduce its first-ever drone units this year. The move is part of Taipei’s evolving strategy of effectively deterring Beijing rather than preparing for a direct fight. “Overall, the cross-strait military balance still tilts toward China’s favor, since China spends a lot more on defense,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. “So it’s more pragmatic for Taiwan to be a ‘porcupine,’ so to speak.”After voters elected her to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, liberal candidate Judge Susan Crawford celebrates with Wisconsin Supreme Court Judge Ann Walsh Bradley at her election night headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 1, 2025.
Republicans expand House majority, but Musk’s man suffers in Wisconsin
What was all the fuss for? Republican Randy Finecruised to a 14-point victory over Democrat Josh Weil in Tuesday’s special election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, quashing the quixotic liberal dream of flipping a seat that US President Donald Trump won by 30 points in the 2024 presidential election. Combined with Jimmy Patronis’ Tuesday triumph in Florida’s 1st District, the GOP increased their House majority to 220-213 — heady days for US Speaker Mike Johnson.
The Fine print. Republicans will be relieved that Fine pulled through, but the margin of his victory may worry them. Fine’s supporters outspent pro-Weil groups on ads by a four-to-one ratio, amid concerns that the seat could be in play. Yet the Democrat still cut the victory margin in half, compared to where it was just five months ago. In the 1st District, Patronis also won by just 14 points — a paltry showing in an area that more closely resembles Alabama than parts of Florida.
Musk misfires. Despite plowing $25 million into the race, Elon Musk couldn’t help conservative candidate Brad Schimel over the line in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election yesterday, as liberal candidate Susan Crawford cruised to a 10-point victory. The result ensures that liberals maintain their 4-3 majority on the court with a suite of court hearings upcoming on abortion access, district maps, and collective bargaining.
“There is an unelected billionaire who should not and will not have a greater voice than the working people of Wisconsin,” former Vice President Kamala Harris said last night, a pointed remark against Musk.
The Tesla CEO wasn’t the only one who spent big on the race, as Crawford’s campaign committee raised $17 million as of March 17 and helped to make it the most expensive judicial election in US history. The greater concern for Musk isn’t the loss of cash — he has plenty left in the bank — but rather the political repercussions. Crawford and her supporters relentlessly attacked Trump’s right-hand man in their ads, and the bet paid off. Republicans’ private grumblings about the tech entrepreneur might just start to get louder.
Donald Trump will take office with unprecedented power
Donald Trump’s 2024 election win gives him a powerful mandate from voters frustrated with government gridlock and bloated bureaucracy. That, along with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential power, means Trump will take office in January with unprecedented impunity to enact his agenda, radically remake the Federal government, and rewrite institutional norms. So what happens next? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Molly Ball, senior political reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Nicole Hemmer, a political historian specializing in conservative media, discuss the implications of a second Trump presidency and how he plans to fulfill promises to voters frustrated with the status quo. Trump will be reined in by the Constitution, but beyond that, will face little accountability, giving him near-total power to enact sweeping changes to democratic institutions.
“I think a lot of people are frustrated with the feeling that our institutions are so calcified and bottle-necked that they don’t allow anything to get done,” Balls says, “So I think there is a mandate for Trump to actually execute on his agenda.”
“I think the idea that the president has free rein does have more popular support than I think many liberals and proponents of rule of law would hope,” Hemmer adds, “The idea that there are levers that can be pulled that will suddenly snap into place an accountability regime, those levers don't exist.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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What's next after MTG fails in bid to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we're watching in US Politics this week: More turmoil in the House.
Georgia member Marjorie Taylor Greene, who's made quite a name for herself as an outspoken opponent of Republican leadership and a prolific fundraiser online, this week triggered another motion to vacate the speaker. The second this year. Only this time it was against Mike Johnson, the speaker who replaced Kevin McCarthy after he was removed during a motion to vacate earlier in the year.
The big change this time was that Democrats rallied to Johnson's side, defending him against the Republicans that tried to take him out and resoundingly defeating the measure, which really takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of future rebellions against the Republican speaker at least for the rest of 2024. Democrats and moderate Republicans are both tired of this level of chaos and want to defang the Republicans, who want to make life harder for the leader of the House of Representatives. That doesn't mean they're all allies now however. Mike Johnson is going to spend the rest of the year pushing very partisan measures across the floor of the House of Representatives in order to draw a contrast between Republicans and Democrats that voters understand when they go to cast a ballot in November. There will be a very small number of must pass legislation coming up.
Right now, Congress is working on reauthorization of the FAA. Later in the year, they're going to have to once again pass a budget bill to keep the government funded. Those will probably be very bipartisan measures. And one of the big ironies of the extreme polarization that's happening in the House, including within the Republican faction, is that the House is now effectively functioning more like the bipartisan Senate, which requires a supermajority of 60 senators, and which is always a bipartisan coalition in order to get almost anything done.
That's now the situation that the House finds itself in. The House is typically the significantly more partisan body. But because of the Republican dissenters against Johnson, they've turned the House into a much more bipartisan place, which really won't get much done this year. So one lesson from Marjorie Taylor Greene this week is that if she comes to the king, she better not miss, she came for the king and she missed. And now she's going to find herself on the outs with the Republicans, probably for the rest of the year.
Thanks for watching. Tune in next week.
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Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Netanyahu losing the PR battle amid public outrage over the IDF strike killing seven aid workers?
I think Israel is losing the information war around the world, not just with the Global South, which was certainly true a few months ago, but increasingly even with Israel's closest allies. I'm hearing from the Germans, from the French, you know, from the Canadians, from the United States, that there is really a lot of upset with the unwillingness to take far greater care about civilian casualties while the Israelis are engaging in massive airstrikes still across Gaza. And of course, especially if we see strikes into Rafah, where well over a million Palestinians are trying to shelter. It's a big problem for the Israelis. It's a big problem for Netanyahu, but no end in sight, right now. And the potential for the war to escalate continues to be very, very real.
What's needed to garner bipartisan support for Speaker Mike Johnson's bill for increased Ukraine aid?
We have bipartisan support. There is overwhelming majority support among Democrats and Republicans to pass aid for Ukraine, likely 60 billion. Could be structured as a loan. Doesn't really matter. It’s not like anyone believes the Ukrainians will be in a position to pay it off any time soon. Makes it more palatable for Trump supporters who have heard the former president say, “not one more dime in direct foreign aid,” has to all be structured as loans in case we don't like them in the future, then they have to pay it back. What if they can't? Who knows? But anyway, that's the structure. The point is that the Ukrainians who have continued to be able to mostly hold their defensive lines, they've lost some territory recently, in part because they don't have enough troops on the ground. They are pushing through more mobilization, but also because they don't have enough artillery and ammunition, enough military equipment. And that is coming some from the Europeans, more soon from the Americans this month, I suspect the next couple of weeks that happens.
What's the significance of Turkey's recent local elections setback for President Erdogan's government?
It is the first time in a couple of decades since Erdogan took power that his party did not win. They didn't get a majority, and instead it was the opposition. And that's a big deal. Even those municipal elections. Look, it doesn't mean the end of Erdogan. He doesn't have to stand for presidential elections, no parliamentary elections until 2028. So it's quite a while. But it does show that elections matter in a country like Turkey as much as Erdogan would like them not to. And it is mostly about lack of comfort with his government's performance on the economy, a lot more pressure to perform adequately. And the mayor of Istanbul is an erstwhile serious challenger to the Turkish president. So, I mean, his ability to change the constitution and consolidate more power, his ability to ensure that his party is going to be in control after 2028 has just gone down quite a bit. And that means he has to be more careful, more cautious and more focused on performing on the economy for his own people.
Mayorkas impeachment: Reps. Lofgren & Spartz on House vote on DHS secretary
The US House of Representatives is voting on a Republican-led resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the immigration crisis on the southern border. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), who both sit on the House Immigration subcommittee, moments before the vote took place for their thoughts on the first impeachment of a cabinet secretary in modern history.
“[The impeachment] has nothing to do with meeting the constitutional standards,” Lofgren, former chair of the Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement, tells Bremmer, “It’s a complete waste of time.”
House Democrats say the vote is unconstitutional and politically motivated, but the GOP, which has a razor-thin three-vote majority in the House, accuse Mayorkas of a “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” and beaching public trust.
“I always believe that ultimate responsibility lays [with] the top executive,” GOP Rep. and Ukrainian American Spartz argues, “We need to send the message that can’t allow executives not to do their duty to the public.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television beginning this Saturday, February 10. Check local listings.
Meet Mike Johnson, US House Speaker & DC's most Googled person
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
Who is Mike Johnson?
Mike Johnson became the most commonly Googled person in Washington, DC, this week when he won a surprising bid for the House speakership after Republicans failed to rally around multiple nominations from across their caucus once they removed former speaker Kevin McCarthy from his seat several weeks ago.
Johnson is a fourth-term congressman from Louisiana who is somewhere in the middle of the Republican conference, If you look at his voting record and ideological positions. He's got a lot of attention from the media for his role, both in trying to overturn the 2020 election results and also some of his comments on Social Security, Medicare, and abortion. But this is really a mainstream Republican House member who is going to struggle in his new role as speaker, having no leadership experience or any experience in passing bills whatsoever.
That lack of experience will be tested almost immediately with the upcoming November 17th government shutdown deadline and a bipartisan push to provide up to $106 billion in additional aid for Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, and, of course, securing the southern border. That package probably would pass the House and Senate overwhelmingly once it comes together out of the Senate. But Johnson himself is trying to leverage his role as speaker, along with his fellow conservatives, to get cuts and appropriate spending starting in 2024.
And that's going to be the big story of early next year, because what's likely to happen is that Johnson will punt government funding and take the threat of a government shutdown off the table into January or maybe even April. And make the rest of this year, this fight about foreign aid.
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