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Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers
Israel's global image wanes after killing of aid workers | Ian Bremmer | World In :60

Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Is Netanyahu losing the PR battle amid public outrage over the IDF strike killing seven aid workers?

I think Israel is losing the information war around the world, not just with the Global South, which was certainly true a few months ago, but increasingly even with Israel's closest allies. I'm hearing from the Germans, from the French, you know, from the Canadians, from the United States, that there is really a lot of upset with the unwillingness to take far greater care about civilian casualties while the Israelis are engaging in massive airstrikes still across Gaza. And of course, especially if we see strikes into Rafah, where well over a million Palestinians are trying to shelter. It's a big problem for the Israelis. It's a big problem for Netanyahu, but no end in sight, right now. And the potential for the war to escalate continues to be very, very real.

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Jess Frampton

Turkey’s sultan Erdogan is not going anywhere

Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan is … strong.

Despite most opinion polls predicting a win for main-opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a soft-spoken technocrat who leads the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), President Erdogan received 49.5% of the votes in Sunday’s presidential election compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. Erdogan’s Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its People’s Alliance coalition, meanwhile, defied expectations to retain majority control of Turkey’s 600-member parliament.

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Expect another Erdogan presidency for Turkey
Expect another Erdogan presidency for Turkey | Europe In :60 | GZERO Media

Expect another Erdogan presidency for Turkey

Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.

How was the outcome of the Turkish election?

Well, we haven't seen the end of it, but the first round, which was not decisive concerning the presidency. Erdogan just short of 50%, but his coalition did capture the majority in parliament and that will be decisive advantage when it goes to the second round for the presidency on May 28th. Erdogan managed to mobilize the nationalists more conservative, more sort of proud Turkish, somewhat more rural Turks against the more modern, Western, younger. We'll see. But in all likelihood, May 28th for Erdogan.

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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Ermine Erdogan, greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey.

Reuters

Why is Erdogan still popular?

By many measures, things aren’t great in Turkey right now.

Inflation is at 44% (down from 85% in October), and analysts say it’s likely higher than official numbers suggest. Meanwhile, the lira, Turkey’s currency, is tanking, having fallen 76% during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest term in office (since 2018).

That’s to say nothing of the 1.5 million people left homeless by February’s devastating earthquake, which killed 50,000 in the country’s south and exposed the depths of Ankara’s cronyism and corruption. The list goes on.

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Erdogan likely to win Turkish election
Erdogan likely to win Turkish election | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Erdogan likely to win Turkish election

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. Beautiful Monday morning in New York. And elections, important elections in Turkey. We've been talking about them for a while, and the first round, results are now in. Erdogan not quite at 50%, but really close. You're going to have a second round, but it's almost certain now that he is going to win. Turnout's very high, almost 90%. That seems unheard of, inconceivable for Americans or Europeans, but actually normal turnout in Turkish elections are about 85%, higher this time around because a lot was at stake. You had consolidation around a single major opposition candidate and a lot of people unhappy with the economy, but a lot of nationalism at play too.

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Supporters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Turkey's main opposition alliance, attend a rally ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Reuters

Turkey headed to round two

Turkey's presidential election is almost surely headed to a runoff. With more than 99% of domestic ballots and 84% of overseas votes in on Monday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is just short of the 50% he needs to avoid a May 28 second-round contest with Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a technocrat who heads an opposition made up of six parties.

What's more, the president's Islamist Justice and Development Party also looks set to win a majority in parliament.

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People look on from a balcony with a banner with the image of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Erdogan’s moment of truth

Perhaps no election in 2023 will have as much global impact as Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary votes, which begin this Sunday.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a ceremony to mark the delivery of nuclear fuel to the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which is being built by Russia, in Ankara.

Murat Cetinmuhurdar/PPO/Handout via REUTERS

Turkey's looming crisis

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the man who has dominated Turkey’s politics for a generation, was once mayor of Istanbul, and that job helped vault him to national leadership. “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey,” he once said.

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