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Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition party, celebrate in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 31, 2024.
Turks delivered a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday in local elections amid crippling inflation. The opposition beat Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, in Turkey's five biggest cities, with the biggest result rocking Istanbul's mayoral race
Erdoğan wanted his party’s candidate, former Environment Minister Murat Kurum, to unseat popular opposition Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu in Turkey's largest city. But Imamoğlu was ahead by 10 percentage points early Monday, with most of the ballots counted.
Imamoğlu’s victory in the 2019 elections was a serious rebuke to Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, which had controlled the metropolis since 2004. Erdoğan launched his career in national politics from the mayorship, which he won in 1994 — and he wanted to prevent Imamoğlu from following in his footsteps.
Erdoğan heavily backed Kurum, going so far as to hold two preelection rallies in the city and attend prayers at the deeply symbolic Hagia Sophia mosque just ahead of the vote. The president based much of his appeal to Turkish voters on cultural issues and Islamist policy, in stark contrast to the secularism of the opposition CHP.
It's the economy, stupid. The win bolsters Imamoğlu's position as Erdoğan's main political rival. In the end, it likely came down to lira, as Erdoğan's economic policy has been disastrous. The country is struggling with a 70% inflation rate year-on-year, and interest rates are around 50%, putting tremendous pressure on businesses and families.
"At a time when Erdogan is looking to consolidate his power to rebalance the economy and maintain his foreign policy balancing act, these factors would pose fresh political challenges at home to Turkey's long-serving leader," says Emre Peker, a director for Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. While a general election won't happen anytime soon, Sunday's results will hurt Erdoğan’s hopes of a constitutional reform, leaving him in a weaker negotiating position.