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Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), celebrate following the early results in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) in Istanbul, Turkey March 31, 2024.
Turkey’s AI elections
Voters across Turkey went to the polls on Sunday for local elections nationwide. While Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wasn’t on the ballot, observers expected the Turkish president to change the constitution to extend his own term limits should his AK Party win with enough of a mandate. Instead, the opposition Republican People’s Party won in a shock victory.
The consequential nature of these elections heightened concerns about disinformation spread with AI-generated media. Earlier this year, an AI-generated voiceover was used to alter a video of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu to show him praising Erdoğan. Imamoğlu is a chief rival of the Turkish president and has served as mayor since 2019.
There have also been allegations of blackmail using AI. One politician, the former professional soccer player Gokhan Zan, withdrew his mayoral candidacy in the province of Hatay after receiving threats to release a video showing him taking bribes, a video he claims was generated with AI.
Erdoğan now faces the prospect of four years in power with an emboldened opposition led by the charismatic Imamoğlu. We’re watching for how each side harnesses AI to scrap for power in one of the world’s most important — and most flawed — democratic systems.
Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition party, celebrate in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 31, 2024.
Turkish voters punish Erdogan in local elections
Turks delivered a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday in local elections amid crippling inflation. The opposition beat Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, in Turkey's five biggest cities, with the biggest result rocking Istanbul's mayoral race
Erdoğan wanted his party’s candidate, former Environment Minister Murat Kurum, to unseat popular opposition Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu in Turkey's largest city. But Imamoğlu was ahead by 10 percentage points early Monday, with most of the ballots counted.
Imamoğlu’s victory in the 2019 elections was a serious rebuke to Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, which had controlled the metropolis since 2004. Erdoğan launched his career in national politics from the mayorship, which he won in 1994 — and he wanted to prevent Imamoğlu from following in his footsteps.
Erdoğan heavily backed Kurum, going so far as to hold two preelection rallies in the city and attend prayers at the deeply symbolic Hagia Sophia mosque just ahead of the vote. The president based much of his appeal to Turkish voters on cultural issues and Islamist policy, in stark contrast to the secularism of the opposition CHP.
It's the economy, stupid. The win bolsters Imamoğlu's position as Erdoğan's main political rival. In the end, it likely came down to lira, as Erdoğan's economic policy has been disastrous. The country is struggling with a 70% inflation rate year-on-year, and interest rates are around 50%, putting tremendous pressure on businesses and families.
"At a time when Erdogan is looking to consolidate his power to rebalance the economy and maintain his foreign policy balancing act, these factors would pose fresh political challenges at home to Turkey's long-serving leader," says Emre Peker, a director for Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. While a general election won't happen anytime soon, Sunday's results will hurt Erdoğan’s hopes of a constitutional reform, leaving him in a weaker negotiating position.