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Taiwanese soldiers stand guard as a Chinook Helicopter carrying a tremendous Taiwan flag flies over a military camp, as part of a rehearsal for the flyby performance for Taiwan’s Double-Ten National Day Celebration, amid rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei and threats from China, in Taoyuan, Taiwan 28 September 2021.
China tries to shape Taiwan’s Elections
As Taiwan’s election season gets into swing, China is attempting to use its economic clout to swing the vote away from the ruling, independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party and toward the more Beijing-friendly Kuomintang.
The background: Beijing insists that self-governing Taiwan is part of China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to “reunite” the island with the mainland, by force if necessary.
On Tuesday, China announced a plan for “integrated development” with Taiwan, which Chinese state media hailed as a step toward peaceful reconciliation. Meanwhile, in a less peaceful signal,Beijing deploying a carrier strike group off the island’s southern tip.
It’s a carrot and stick dynamic the world ought to get used to as Beijing attempts to frame the Taiwanese election as a choice between economic and political tensions with China under the DPP, or prosperous and peaceful cross-strait relations under the KMT.
The carrot: China’s new proposals would allow citizens of Taiwan to work and live in Fujian, a province with strong cultural ties to Taipei, and allow them to access government services there. The plan would also “pair” the mainland cities of Xiamen and Fuzhou with the Taiwanese-controlled islets of Kinmen and Matsu, and encourage Taiwanese to buy property in Fujian.
Rick Waters, formerly the U.S. State Department’s top China policy official and now a managing director at Eurasia Group, said Beijing’s proposal will likely backfire, as it will remind voters of how Beijing recently diluted Hong Kong’s autonomy by grouping it together with several other mainland cities.
“In Taiwan’s elections, that won't sell well,” Waters wrote in a text interview.
The stick: In addition to those aircraft carriers, Beijing also recently announced an investigation of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, a free trade agreement that gives certain privileges to Taiwan. When it was originally signed under KMT president Ma Ying-jeou, it was seen as an important step towards integrating the economies of China and Taiwan.
The investigation, which could result in revision of the agreement, is due to wrap up in January, just after the election. Waters says the timing sends a clear signal: if voters back pro-independence candidates, they could lose mainland market access — but he doubts Beijing’s gambit will pay off as Taiwanese voters have had a front-row seat as Beijing has crushed Hong Kong’s democracy and economic independence, formal guarantees of autonomy be damned.
“For now,” says Waters, “the mainland is exhausting the options short of an invasion, no matter how unlikely they are to succeed.
The geopolitics of "Barbie"
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a special update, Quick take, I know you need to hear about this. The geopolitics of "Barbie".
"Barbie" is coming out. No, not in that way. Next week in the United States and the United Kingdom, massive launch. You've seen the dreamhouse, you've seen the buses, you've seen the excitement, and now you've seen the geopolitical backlash. It was not what you were expecting. I certainly don't remember there ever being a political science Barbie. Uh, there is a campaign manager Barbie that they made. That's, that's pretty much the opposite when you think about it. And there's also a Chief Sustainability Officer Barbie, that was of course, made of plastic naturally. But never a geopolitical analyst Barbie. Well, maybe that was a mistake, turns out there's a problem.
In the movie, there's a world map behind Barbie. Unclear why Barbie requires a scene with the world map. I'm sure we're all gonna learn this in a couple of weeks or maybe not. But there it is. World map in crayon. And you can see Greenland that's in yellow of course, and sort of a nine-dash line. Might there be a nine-dash line around Southeast Asia? Well, that's the big question. Vietnam banned the movie from its market saying that that indeed was what was being depicted. The upside is that China has not, it's the largest global movie market at the box office. And Hollywood Studios, of course, very frequently tailor movies to ensure that they get approval from the sensors. Now, the Philippines was also going to ban "Barbie." They've now decided against it as long as the map is blurred. So here's the map. Take a look again. Is Barbie supporting Chinese Neocolonialism? And would Ken approve?
Of course critical question here. Warner Brothers says that "this is a child-like crayon drawing" and it was not intended to make any type of statement that alleged nine-dash line is neither clearly located in the South China Sea region, nor does it have nine dashes. We look carefully. It's only eight. Only eight dashes. That's one fewer dash. Heck it's not even the only dashed line on the map. If you look closely, you'll also see that there's a Cambodia-sized turtle that's located nearby, right on the Asian landmass. And I'm pretty sure that that's already been eaten. But I do think the Warner Brothers folks did know what they were doing. I mean, you know, you're trying hard to get access to the Chinese market, but you don't wanna alienate anyone. So by putting these eight dashes off of Asia, it's an effort to get favor from the Chinese sensors, but also not antagonize the Southeast Asians.
Barbie, you think you're so clever. But this has happened before in 2022. Vietnam and the Philippines both banned Sony Pictures action movie "Uncharted" over their nine-dashed depiction. And that was pretty clear. It was very brief, it was very clear depiction. Also, they stopped screenings both countries of Dreamworks animated film "Abominable" in 2019 due to a scene that showed the nine-dash line. Malaysia made the studio cut the scene from "Abominable," and that's no joke. What the hell are all these people doing with nine-dash lines? Well, you know, all we can say, Fox News had a host that asked, is Barbie a communist? You be the judge. Pics on the spectrum, but it should help "Oppenheimer" at the box office.
That's it for me. Talk to you real soon.
A map showing countries in Africa and Asia that criminalize same-sex acts, by degree of punishment.
The Graphic Truth: Criminalizing LGBTQ love
Last week, Uganda’s parliament passed legislation that criminalizes identifying as LGBTQ, which puts individuals at risk of life imprisonment, or in some cases, even death. Similarly, draconian legislation over identifying as LGBTQ is under consideration in Ghana, and VP Kamala Harris’s visit to Zambia this week – for a summit celebrating democracy – is stoking anti-LGBTQ rhetoric. As of 2023, many parts of the world are still unsafe for the LGBTQ community, as same-sex acts are deemed illegal in 65 countries, from Latin America to Oceania. The death penalty is a possibility in 11 countries worldwide. We look at the range of penalties in Africa and Asia, the two continents with the highest number of countries criminalizing same-sex acts.
The Graphic Truth: How is Russian oil selling?
Russian oil has been selling at a massive discount since the war in Ukraine began last February, which has been a double-edged sword for the Kremlin. On the one hand, it brings in some much-needed revenue and makes Russian crude an attractive buy at a time of global inflation. On the other hand, selling at a discount means selling at a loss in revenue to a dwindling number of buyers. Adding to Russia’s woes, on Dec. 5, the EU instituted an embargo on Russian crude shipments at sea, leading to a massive drop-off in exports across the board, even to markets it depends on in Asia — chiefly China, India, and Turkey. The G7, Eu, and Australia also placed a $60 per barrel cap on Russian oil, so the discount is likely to remain in place as Russia tries to ship over long distances to Asia. We look at the discount for Russian crude today vs. when Russia invaded Ukraine, and how much each of Russia’s top three customers has been buying since the war began.
US President Joe Biden takes questions from reporters in Washington, DC.
Hard Numbers: Dems vs. Biden, Indian population vs. China's, Ukrainian army vs. Russia, Asian Vegas vs. COVID
64: With friends like these … A new poll says 64% of US Democratic voters — and nearly all of those under the age of 30 — don't want President Joe Biden to run for re-election in 2024. Biden, who would be almost 82 at the time, says he will do so. Let’s see how this plays out as the presidential contest heats up.
1: Sometime next year India will surpass China as the no. 1 most populous nation in the world, according to a UN report released on World Population Day. China’s falling birthrate has cooled its population growth for years.
1 million: Ukraine's defense minister says his country is amassing a million-strong army equipped with NATO weapons to fight Russia. The Ukrainians are racing against time to launch a counteroffensive to take back parts of the eastern Donbas region and Black Sea ports captured by Russian troops.
1,526: Macau, China's gambling mecca, shut down all its casinos on Monday for the first time in two years after logging 1,526 COVID infections since mid-June. Although it's much smaller than Las Vegas, Macau actually brings in six times more revenue than Bugsy Siegel’s desert dreamtown — including a lot of illicit cash from the mainland.What We're Watching: Blinken goes to Southeast Asia
Blinken tours Southeast Asia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken kicks off on Monday his first Southeast Asian trip as America's top diplomat with stops in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Following similar tours by VP Kamala Harris and Defense chief Lloyd Austin, Blinken wants to bolster US defense cooperation with ASEAN, an economic bloc made up of Southeast Asian countries, to build a bulwark against China in the South China Sea. He will also pitch Joe Biden's vision for US-led Indo-Pacific trade as an alternative to doing more trade with China, and talk up Southeast Asia as an alternative business destination for US companies looking to abandon China. But what ASEAN really wants is tariff-free access to the US market, a non-starter for Biden because he says big trade deals with low-wage countries will hurt low-skilled American workers. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries are in a bind of their own: doing more business with the US as an alternative to China will create jobs, but the Chinese won't be happy about it — and nowadays they carry a lot more economic sway in the region than America does.
Japan's "third way" capitalism
Capitalism must further evolve, Kishida says during an exclusive address to our parent company Eurasia Group's 2021 GZERO Summit. And Japan can help lead the way along with other advanced democracies like the US and European countries in an increasingly G-Zero world.
But what does Japan's "third way" capitalism actually entail?
A big part is combating rising inequality, one of several market-based distortions that have led to electoral populism and "narrow-minded nationalism."
It's also about investing big in climate, digital transformation, and economic security — including health — for all citizens.
Kishida plans to detail his vision for a new capitalism in the spring.
In the meantime, the prime minister has already committed Japan to spending $4.4 billion on COVID vaccines and treatment, and to cut greenhouse gas emissions by a whopping 46 percent by the end of the decade in order to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Watch Kishida's speech and insights from other participants on Day 2 of the event on the GZERO Summit website.
Net zero emissions by 2050 "lacks sense of urgency" — Suntory CEO
Like many other big corporations, Japanese brewer and distiller Suntory want to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But that's not enough for CEO Tak Niinami. "It's far away and lacks the sense of urgency," he says. Niinami predicts that especially after COP26 people will be wary of greenwashing, so it's essential for corporations to "to be transparent, showing society what we are doing and how much progress we are making" on climate.
Suntory CEO Tak Niinami spoke during the first of a two-part Sustainability Leaders Summit livestream conversation sponsored by Suntory. Watch here.