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Can Taiwan defend itself from Chinese invasion?
Can Taiwan defend itself from a Chinese invasion? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at CSIS, to break down Beijing’s increasingly aggressive military maneuvers around the island and what it means for Taipei’s future. Since Taiwan’s pro-independence president William Lai took office in 2024, China has stepped up both the frequency and scale of its military operations, with daily air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone.
It’s an alarming escalation, making the possibility of armed conflict feel closer than ever. China has made clear it’s deadly serious about using military force if it needs to: the People’s Liberation Army recently unveiled two mobile bridges that could be used for an amphibious invasion and is reportedly building a massive underground military facility near Beijing 10x the size of the Pentagon. But despite this pressure, Taiwan’s geographic separation gives it a strategic edge.
“Regardless of how capable you assess the Chinese military,” Lin says, “A Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be the most complex military operation we’ve seen in history, more complex than the Normandy invasion.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Could China invade Taiwan?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks the question keeping diplomats, military experts, and policymakers all over the world up at night: Could China and Taiwan be heading toward war? Tensions are high. The People’s Liberation Army has been staging louder and more frequent military drills around Taiwan and Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to seize the island by 2027. Diplomatic red lines are being tested, and the risk of miscalculation is growing. Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins Ian to break down the current conflict and whether war between China and Taiwan in the near-term is a realistic possibility.
Securing Taiwan is crucial for global stability—the island manufactures over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and nearly half of all container ships pass through the Taiwan Strait. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would upend the global economy, reshape alliances, and likely trigger the most deadly conflict in the Asia-Pacific since World War II. What are China’s goals and how far is Beijing willing to go to achieve them? And, crucially, if China attacked Taiwan, would the Trump administration step in to help defend it?
"The rate and pace of Chinese activities around Taiwan has been increasing quite a bit," Lin warns, "So lots and lots of developments that are showcasing that China's very dead serious about using military force if they need to."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
View of what state media KCNA reported was a test-firing of the weapons system of the new "Choe Hyon-class" warship, in this picture released on April 30, 2025, by the Korean Central News Agency.
The new global arms race: who’s buying, who’s selling, what’s at stake
Welcome to the new global arms race: faster, smarter, more dangerous and more expensive than ever. In 2024, world military spending surged to a record $2.7 trillion, the steepest annual increase since the Cold War's end, driven largely by European, Asian and Middle Eastern nations.
Who's buying?
Faced with threats from Russia, Europe has ramped up defense budgets, with Poland's spending growing by 31% to $38 billion and Sweden’s by 34% to $12 billion in its first year of NATO membership. Germany increased military expenditure by 28% to $88.5 billion, making it the fourth-largest spender globally and rearming the nation that precipitated the two major world wars of the last century.
In the Middle East, Israel's military spending soared by 65% per cent to $46.5 billion, the largest annual rise since 1967, amid its war with Hamas in Gaza and conflict with Hezbollah in South Lebanon. In Asia, China spent 7% more on its military in 2024, adding an estimated $314 billion, raising fears of an imminent operation against Taiwan, which boosted its military spending by 1.8% in 2024 to $16.5 billion. Fellow Asia-Pacific power Japan saw its military budget rise by 21% to $55.3 billion, its largest annual increase since 1952.
Who's selling?
Traditional arms exporters like the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany continue to dominate the market. However, emerging players such as India, Turkey, and Israel are increasing their share. Notably, Israel's defense exports reached a record $14.8 billion in 2024, with Europe accounting for 54% of sales, up from 35% the previous year.
What’s on the wish list?
Today’s arms race is not just about quantity, but technology. Nations are investing heavily in next-generation weapons, including drones, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and space-based systems.
In the US, President Donald Trump’s desire for a “Golden Dome” missile defence system akin to Israel’s “Iron Dome” would add $175 billion to Washington’s arms budget over the next three years. It would also require the cooperation of neighboring Canada, at a price of $61 billion, or 51st statehood – which Prime Minister Mark Carney has made clear is not on the table.
Russia’s recent announcement that it is equipping Belarus with antiballistic Oreshnik missiles capable of striking all of Europe has upped the need for missile defence systems on the continent. The United States, China, France, and Germany have also invested in electromagnetic railguns that shoot projectiles without gunpowder; last year, Japan became the first country to test one at sea.
Strategic implications
All this warmongering could deal a death blow to arms control agreements. The New START treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire in February 2026, with little hope for renewal. It could also see new theatres of war emerge: in the Asia Pacific around Taiwan, in Europe in countries bordering Ukraine, and in cyberspace, through the use of disinformation and propaganda campaigns. And all that military spending will put a dent in national budgets, possibly requiring cuts to social benefits, increased debt, or fewer government services - which won’t make voters happy, and could contribute to political instability.
Taiwan's strategy for countering a Chinese invasion, with Bonny Lin of CSIS
On this week’s GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a look at one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world: the Taiwan Strait. China has been conducting drills around Taiwan for years, but since the current pro-independence president, William Lai, took office in 2024, Beijing has been staging near-daily military exercises near the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before.
Lai has pledged to boost defense spending, strengthen ties with the US, and reduce Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. But Lai faces serious political headwinds at home. His party lost its majority in parliament, and he’ll have to navigate a deeply divided government to get anything done. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping says reunification with Taiwan is a national priority and has made it clear Beijing won’t hesitate to take the island by force if necessary. The stakes are global: A war in the Strait would reshape the world economy, drag in major powers, potentially triggering the deadliest military conflict in the Asia-Pacific since World War II. So how far can China push, and how long can Taiwan hold out, before a crisis becomes inevitable?
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A general view outside Exchange Square in Hong Kong's financial district. Asian stock markets have plummeted amid growing fears of a global trade war, as Donald Trump described his tariffs as ''medicine'' and showed no indication of backing down.
Don’t call it a trade war
In the latest twist of the United States’ trade war with China and the world, US President Donald Trump declared Monday that he would impose an additional 50% levy on Chinese imports on April 9 if Beijing refuses to drop its retaliatory tariff. The Middle Kingdom announced a 34% duty on US imports last week, matching the White House’s new excise on Chinese products.
The US follows through. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs revealed on “Liberation Day” last Wednesday would be a ceiling on other countries, “as long as you don't retaliate.” China’s response forced Trump’s hand and now puts the two superpowers firmly in a trade war — one that is unlikely to benefit either country economically. The 100% tariff that Trump proposed last year is closer to becoming a reality.
No escape in Asia. China isn’t the only major Asian power that is suffering from these tariffs. Several major exporters to the United States — including South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam — were slapped with high levies. The world’s largest continent has been a hub for cheap production for the American market, so these countries have high trade surpluses with the United States — and high tariffs to boot.
The Asian markets have reacted accordingly to the tariffs. Before its rebound on Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei had lost more than any other major stock index worldwide since the US president’s second inauguration. Indices in Shanghai and Hong Kong suffered one of their worst days on record Monday — both recovered some of the losses Tuesday, but remain far behind where they were. Samsung Electronics, by far the biggest firm in South Korea, has lost nearly 10% of its value since April 2.
Will Trump budge? Despite the wholesale market downturn — US stocks also continued their freefall on Monday — Trump hasn’t pulled back yet. The president has dropped occasional hints that he’s flexible to changes and he opened negotiations with Japan yesterday, but that he seems unlikely to moderate his stance with China, according to Eurasia Group’s China Research Director Lauren Gloudeman.
“US-China relations are deteriorating quickly toward unmanaged decoupling, as both sides are engaged in a game of chicken and neither President Trump nor President Xi are likely to blink soon,” said Gloudeman. “We expect China to retaliate in kind, as the leadership has pledged to ‘fight til the end’ against Trump's measures.”
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attends a press conference to announce that he will not run for the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election in September at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on August 14, 2024. As a result, PM Kishida will retire from Prime Minister after a new LDP president is elected in next month.
Japanese PM Kishida steps aside
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced early Wednesday that he will not stand for another term as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party in September, which will clear the way for a new PM. The move is a surprise, though perhaps not a shock, given Kishida’s perennially abysmal approval ratings amid struggles to balance a plummeting yen in a sluggish economy.
Kishida’s departure now will give whoever comes out on top of the LDP’s internal party hierarchy about a year’s runway before the next general elections, which must be held in October 2025. The LDP’s dominance in the Diet is legendary — it has ruled with only two brief interruptions since 1955 — but the new PM will need to use every minute of the next year to make his case to voters.
For all his unpopularity at home, Kishida won admirers in Washington with his efforts to ramp up Japanese defense spending and improve relations with other US allies like South Korea and the Philippines. We’re watching how his successor tackles security strategy, and if that endears him at all to Japanese voters.
Podcast: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Ian Bremmer is in Tokyo, Japan, to check in on America’s “pivot to Asia.” How’s that going? Given that neither Ukraine nor Israel is located in the Asia Pacific, it is not so great!
In 2011, then-President Obama announced on a trip to Australia that US foreign policy would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to curb a rising China. Twelve years later, we’re still pivoting. But if we ever do get there, we will have to take Japan, one of our closest regional allies, along with us. To talk about US-Japan relations, as well as a whole host of sticky policy issues, foreign and domestic, Ian is joined by US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. Ian will also get his take on the Israel-Hamas war and the fighting in Ukraine.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin, and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa pose for a photo prior to the 10th trilateral foreign ministers' meeting in Busan, South Korea, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023.
China, Japan, and South Korea to resume annual trilateral meetings
Amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea and faced with the looming Taiwan election, the foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea held their first in-person talks since 2019 on Sunday, in Busan, South Korea, with hopes of paving the way for resumption of formal annual trilateral summits.
The three countries had begun holding annual summits in 2008 but suspended them four years ago during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contentious issues up for discussion at this preliminary meeting included China’s ban on Japanese seafood due to Tokyo’s discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant, North Korea’s recent spy satellite launch, and Japan and South Korea’s deepening ties with the United States, including their recent move to strengthen their mutual security cooperation.
Next steps: Japan’s Yoko Kamikawa, South Korea’s Park Jin, and China’s Wang Yi agreed to hold a trilateral leaders’ summit at the “earliest” possible time. The three pledged to cooperate in areas of people-to-people exchange, trade, technology, public health, sustainable development, and security, according to South Korean and Japanese statements.
“We three ministers agreed to restore and normalize three-nation cooperation at an early date,” Park Jin told reporters. South Korea had previously indicated that it would like the meeting before year’s end, but with December just around the corner, this may be a tall order.