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A drone view of rescue workers conducting a rescue operation at a collapsed building in the aftermath of a 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Bogo, Cebu, Philippines, on October 1, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Earthquake rocks the Philippines, UN expands Haiti mission, Moscow cuts military budget, & More
69: A 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck off Cebu, Philippines, late Tuesday night, killing at least 69 and injuring hundreds. The quake caused landslides, building collapses, and power outages in a region still recovering from recent storms.
5,500: The UN has approved expanding its Haiti security mission into a 5,500-strong force to combat rampant gang violence. Backed by the US and Panama, the decision will add to the current 1,000 officers, mostly from Kenya, already deployed to support Haitian police.
$156 billion: Russia’s military budget next year is set to be $156 billion, down from the $163 billion this year, marking the first drop since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Still, the military budget remains high – it’s nearly four times larger than in 2021. To help fund the war effort, the government is also set to increase the value-added tax from 20% to 22%.
15: South African opposition leader Julius Malema – who heads the far-left, black nationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – was found guilty of publicly discharging a firearm, an offense that carries a maximum sentence of 15 years. Malema fired 14 to 15 rounds in front of 20,000 supporters during an EFF celebration in the Eastern Cape in 2018.
The Palestinian flag is raised as the Palestinian mission to the United Kingdom holds a ceremony after the UK government announced on Sunday the country's formal recognition of a Palestinian state, at the mission's headquarters in London, United Kingdom, on September 22, 2025.
What We’re Watching: More Western nations recognize Palestinian state, Southeast Asian unrest spreads to the Philippines, Putin wants to de-facto extend nuclear arms deal
Troupe of Western nations recognize Palestinian state ahead of UN meeting
Australia, Canada, Portugal, and the United Kingdom all followed through with pledges to recognize a Palestinian state on Sunday, just in time for the start of the United Nations General Assembly’s main meetings. France is set to formally follow suit today. The move is an effort to pressure Israel to end its war in Gaza, but it seems to have had the opposite effect: citing the news, several Israeli ministers urged the military to annex the West Bank. Not every major Western nation was on board with the plan: Germany said recognition should come at the end of the peace process, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said recognizing Palestinian statehood now would be “counter-productive.”
Philippine protests turn violent
The Philippines became the latest country in Southeast Asia to face disorder, as 33,000 people gathered in Manila on Sunday to decry the government’s reported misuse of funds allocated for flood relief efforts. The protests also took a violent turn, as police arrested dozens of people suspected of hurling various makeshift weapons at officers stationed near the presidential palace. The unrest began earlier this month when a wealthy couple that leads many flood-control projects showed off their luxury cars during media interviews – this was especially painful for Philippine citizens, since the country is regularly hit with storms and many live in poverty.
Russia tacks another year onto key nuclear arms treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia will observe the last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms pact for one more year. The so-called “New START” Treaty of 2010, which limits the number of warheads and bombers each side can hold and deploy, is set to expire in February. Bilateral inspections collapsed several years ago due to the Ukraine war and no new treaty has been negotiated; at least theoretically, New START remains in effect. Putin’s decision is welcome, but it merely punts two key questions: will the US and Russia reach a new pact to limit the world’s most destructive weapons, and how will any new arms control system take into account the growing nuclear arsenal of China?
Police officers disperse protesters during riots in front of the House of Representatives building in Jakarta, Indonesia, on August 30, 2025.
Why Asia’s “Gen Z” revolts matter
Across South and Southeast Asia, something unusual is brewing.
Massive economic protests in Indonesia were inflamed in late August when a police car rammed into a taxi and killed the young driver. “Gen Z” demonstrators in Nepal earlier this month burned the parliament and forced the prime minister to resign. And this week in Timor-Leste, protestors – including many students – set cars ablaze in objection to a government plan to buy vehicles for politicians.
A common thread among widely different contexts? Young people are fed up with corruption by entrenched leaders. The Indonesian unrest was touched off when young people struggling with high living costs learned all 580 members of the House of Representatives were receiving a housing benefit – President Prabowo Subianto has replaced certain high-level ministers in a desperate bid to quell the unrest.
Protestors in Timor-Leste – including many students – fumed about a similar proposal in their country, where lawmakers already make 10 times the country’s median income. Nepal’s young people have suffered from a stagnant economy, and when the government banned most social media as part of a broader crackdown on speech, it tipped them over the edge, beginning what has been dubbed the “Gen Z revolt.”
These upheavals have only added to the pile of political crises in the region. Three weeks ago a court removed Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office over a deferential phone call with a leading Cambodian politician during a border dispute. Myanmar is in perpetual crisis as a military junta fights a grinding civil war against multiple armed groups. In the Philippines, the House speaker has just resigned over a corruption scandal amid a broader battle between two ruling families.
Though young people are at the heart of the latest protests in Indonesia, Nepal, and Timor Leste, it’s not an issue that’s specific to Southeast Asia, according to Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“I don’t think it has to do with the region,” Kurlantzick told GZERO. “You can see that in tons of other places around the world, young people are completely fed up with politics… The center is falling apart in all of these places.”
Though the domestic ramifications of each of these revolts are unclear – Prabowo remains in charge in Indonesia, while Nepal is still trying to determine its next leader – one thing is certain: the region’s collective foreign policy is now under strain, lacking any coherent vision at a time when the rivalry between United States and China is white hot.
“It definitely has an effect on regional politics and leadership,” said Kurlantzick. “You don’t have the region’s most-powerful countries being devoted to foreign or regional policy. That is a huge problem.”
This has major economic ramifications, as the countries are dealing with Washington and China on a one-to-one basis, weakening their bargaining position against these two superpowers.
“In the past, the 10 Southeast Asia states negotiated trade agreements with other powerful countries, like Japan and China.” Kurlantzick added. “They could have all worked together and rejected the Trump administration’s transshipment tariffs, and you have a billion people and huge exporters in this region, but they couldn’t.”
Senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay (photo) died on August 11, after being the victim of an attack last Saturday, June 7, while attending a political rally in the Modelia neighborhood of Bogotá.
Hard Numbers: Colombian presidential candidate dies after June shooting, Al Jazeera journalists killed in Gaza, South Korean military dropoff, Chinese ship hits its own man
39: At the age 39, center-right presidential candidate Miguel Uribe died on Monday, nine weeks after he was shot by a 14-year-old boy during a campaign rally in Bogota, the Colombian capital. Before his death, the shooting had catapulted Uribe to the top of the polls for next year’s election. The incident has revived fears in Colombia of a return to political violence, which was endemic in the 1980s and 1990s – read more here.
5: Five Al Jazeera journalists – and one freelance reporter — were killed in an Israeli strike on al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City on Sunday, including prominent Arabic-language correspondent Anas al-Sharif. The Israeli military accused al-Sharif of leading a Hamas cell, a claim that Al Jazeera, the Committee to Protect Journalist and a UN expert have denied.
20%: South Korea’s paltry birthrate is now affecting the size of its military ranks, which have dropped 20% in the past six years to 450,000 troops. This is less than half of North Korea’s military, which numbers 1.2 million. South Korea has conscription – even soccer star Son Heung-min had to complete a military training, albeit a shortened one.
3104: There was some friendly fire, so to speak, in the South China Sea on Monday, as a Chinese warship accidentally rammed a Chinese coast guard ship – Coastguard Vessel 3104 – as it was chasing after a Philippine boat. The South China Sea has been a major area of dispute between Beijing and Manila, ever since China seized the Scarborough Shoal area in 2012.Police in and around a high school in Graz, Austria, after a gunman killed nine people at the school, on June 10, 2025.
What We’re Watching: School shooting in Austria, Duterte impeachment update, Crapo shoots for the moon
Shooter kills nine at Austrian school
A gunman killed at least nine people at a school in Graz, Austria, on Tuesday, in what appears to be the worst school shooting in the country’s post-war history. The 21-year-old suspect, who was an ex-student of the school, reportedly took his own life. Austria has relatively liberal gun laws, compared to some other European countries, so we’ll be watching to see if this tragedy prompts any debate about tighter restrictions.
Could Duterte nab an impeachment reprieve?
The Philippines Senate on Tuesday sent impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte back to the House for constitutional clarifications. It’s a reprieve for Duterte, who faces impeachment on allegations of high crimes, including a plot to kill her political (and dynastic) rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The stakes are high: if impeached, Duterte could be blocked from running for president in 2028. The political blowback could be severe, thoug: The vice president’s party outperformed expectations in last month’s midterm elections.
Trump’s Big Bill is now a Crapo-shoot
All eyes in Washington are today on Sen. Mike Crapo, Republican from Idaho who, as chairman of the Finance Committee, will be marking up President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax-and-spending bill. Crapo has his work cut out: A cadre of budget hawk GOP senators have called for cuts to the spending outlined in the House-passed version of the bill, while others are worried that any significant savings will come at the expense of Medicaid or other popular programs. Rock, meet hard place: Over to you, Mike.
Members of US and Russian delegations, led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin, attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Putin and Zelensky’s diplomatic dance
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have called for direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul this Thursday.
Behind these calls for talks, though, is a battle over whether the US will continue funding Zelensky’s army.
Here’s the bottom-line: Putin won’t stop the war. He hopes instead that US President Donald Trump will grow frustrated (or bored) with the quagmire and withdraw support for Kyiv. That, Putin believes, would allow Russia to seize more of Ukraine.
Zelensky will keep calling for a ceasefire to persuade Trump – who toyed with the idea of coming to Istanbul on Thursday – that Putin’s the problem, in hopes of keeping some US support in place.
In the Philippines, Duterte edges latest edition of family feud
The battle for power in the Philippines is fought between two families: the Marcoses and Dutertes. Monday’s midterm elections favored the latter.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s partners look set to retain the Senate, but allies of Vice President Sara Duterte – who faces an impeachment trial – won more seats than expected. Duterte’s conviction is now less of a surefire bet.
In spite of the politics, House Republicans seek extra Medicaid requirements
When one House committee released its plan for adjusting Medicaid, it omitted the cuts that some ardent deficit hawks in the Republican Party sought. However, it still includes changes that could leave millions of recipients uncovered.
Politically, this is a risky move – polls show huge support for the welfare program. Fiscal conservatives in the GOP, though, will feel that the party must do it now, while they hold unified control of Congress.
A voter casting a ballot in front of the Philippines flag.
Philippine midterms are next episode in Marcos-Duterte drama
The Philippines will hold midterm elections on May 12, with all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half the 24-member Senate, and various provincial, city, and municipal positions up for grabs. The winners will take office on June 30, with terms of six years for the senators and three years for all other officeholders.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hopes to maintain his control of Congress as he seeks to advance his legislative agenda and expand his influence at the expense of former president Rodrigo Duterte’s political faction. In July, the new Senate will hold an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is the former president’s daughter and has repeatedly clashed with Marcos.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford what to watch for in this weekend’s vote.
What are the most important races?
The focus is really on the 12 Senate seats up for election; the House tends to align with the sitting president regardless of its composition. Marcos’s coalition currently consists of six parties in the Senate and nine in the House. Political parties have long been weak in the Philippines, so the concept of a “majority” is very fluid, especially in the Senate, which often acts independently of the president. Officially, the Senate is broken down into “majority bloc,” “minority bloc,” and independents – but “majority” refers to those senators who support the Senate president. This maps roughly, but not precisely, onto the coalition supporting Marcos (or not). There are members of the same party in both the majority and minority blocs, for example. It is therefore easier, but more subjective, to map out the senators who support Marcos and those who do not.
So, what are the stakes in the Senate races?
There are two main implications. First, and more significant for Marcos’s agenda, is whether Marcos retains majority support in the upper house; failure to do so would make it harder to pass proposed economic legislation, including a power sector overhaul aimed at lowering high electricity prices and modest revenue-raising measures designed to trim the large budget deficit and provide more resources for social spending priorities. Second, Duterte-Carpio’s political future is at stake following her impeachment by the House earlier this year on charges of high crimes related to death threats against the president and betrayal of public trust related to alleged misuse of intelligence funds (please see more below).
What are the most important issues for voters heading into these elections?
Surveys show that cost-of-living concerns are by far the biggest issue for voters. The Philippines has been grappling with relatively high inflation in recent years, with food prices a particular concern; price rises have slowed in recent months but that has not yet translated into shifts in public opinion. According to a recent poll, 79% of Filipinos disapprove of the administration’s efforts to control inflation, with just 3% approving. After cost-of-living, voters’ main concerns are pay, corruption, crime, and poverty.
How do the candidates propose to address these concerns?
They have made generic promises about tackling poverty but offered little in terms of specific measures. Philippine elections, especially those for congress, are primarily driven by the personalities and name recognition of the candidates. Many voters will be casting their ballots on the basis of who they know and like, rather than the policy or ideological views of the candidates. It’s worth noting that six of the top 12 candidates in polls are show business personalities; another popular figure is the former boxer Manny Pacquiao, a senator who is running for reelection.
How does the feud between the Marcos and Duterte clans play into election dynamics?
The battle for influence between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties sets the backdrop for the midterms. The upcoming polls will not have an impact on how long Marcos serves as president: He is bound by a single six-year term limit and is very unlikely to be impeached or removed by a coup before his terms ends in 2028. But the outcome of the upcoming Senate poll will determine whether Duterte-Carpio is removed from office and banned from running for public office again. Duterte-Carpio is the early favorite for the 2028 presidential election and the Marcos clan likely hopes she is prevented from running, making it easier for a member of the president’s family or another ally to succeed him.
Duterte-Carpio’s Senate trial is due to begin in late July. If two-thirds (16) of the senators vote against the vice president, she will be removed from office and probably barred from holding other government offices in the future (there is some debate about whether the latter would automatically apply if she is found guilty). She needs only nine senators to vote against or abstain. In addition, the outlook is complicated by the fact that some senators counted in the “pro-Marcos” majority, as they tend to support the administration’s bills, are actually closer to the Dutertes and will likely oppose her removal. That said, the president could press allies to vote against her.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
U.S. President Donald Trump salutes as he attends the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on April 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Trump rolls real eggs, UAE seeks AI’s help, White House nixes safety jobs, South China Sea gets battle-tested, Gold rush, Senior US official robbed
30,000: Rising egg prices don’t seem to have hit the White House, as nearly 30,000 real eggs adorned the White House lawn Monday morning for the 147th annual Easter egg roll. Donald Trump paid tribute to Pope Francis, defended embattled US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and shared photos with the Easter bunny.
1: Hey ChatGPT, can you propose some new legislation for the United Arab Emirates? Yes, the Emirati nation plans to become the first country to harness the power of artificial intelligence to propose new legislation.
875: Out of the roughly 1,000 National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health jobs, the Trump administration has cut 875 of them as part of its broader effort to slash the number of federal employees. This move could especially harm former coal miners – who often suffer from lung disease – as NIOSH has helped them find work outside the mines.
14,000: More than 14,000 American and Filipino soldiers – 9,000 from the US, 5,000 from the Philippines – are participating in a “full battle test” this year, amid mounting tensions in the South China Sea. The coordinated drill will also feature soldiers from Australia, Canada, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The exercise, which started on Monday, will run for three weeks.
$3,400: An age-gold problem: The price of gold surpassed $3,400 on Monday amid fears over the future of the global economy and concerns for the Federal Reserve’s independence. A year ago today, the price of gold was at $2,384.
$3,000: A thief swiped US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s bag while she was having dinner in Washington, DC, on Sunday night, taking her passport, makeup bag, checkbook, and $3,000 in cash. Police officers have not yet caught the thief, believed to be a white male.