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Police in and around a high school in Graz, Austria, after a gunman killed nine people at the school, on June 10, 2025.
What We’re Watching: School shooting in Austria, Duterte impeachment update, Crapo shoots for the moon
Shooter kills nine at Austrian school
A gunman killed at least nine people at a school in Graz, Austria, on Tuesday, in what appears to be the worst school shooting in the country’s post-war history. The 21-year-old suspect, who was an ex-student of the school, reportedly took his own life. Austria has relatively liberal gun laws, compared to some other European countries, so we’ll be watching to see if this tragedy prompts any debate about tighter restrictions.
Could Duterte nab an impeachment reprieve?
The Philippines Senate on Tuesday sent impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte back to the House for constitutional clarifications. It’s a reprieve for Duterte, who faces impeachment on allegations of high crimes, including a plot to kill her political (and dynastic) rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The stakes are high: if impeached, Duterte could be blocked from running for president in 2028. The political blowback could be severe, thoug: The vice president’s party outperformed expectations in last month’s midterm elections.
Trump’s Big Bill is now a Crapo-shoot
All eyes in Washington are today on Sen. Mike Crapo, Republican from Idaho who, as chairman of the Finance Committee, will be marking up President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax-and-spending bill. Crapo has his work cut out: A cadre of budget hawk GOP senators have called for cuts to the spending outlined in the House-passed version of the bill, while others are worried that any significant savings will come at the expense of Medicaid or other popular programs. Rock, meet hard place: Over to you, Mike.
Members of US and Russian delegations, led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin, attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Putin and Zelensky’s diplomatic dance
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have called for direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul this Thursday.
Behind these calls for talks, though, is a battle over whether the US will continue funding Zelensky’s army.
Here’s the bottom-line: Putin won’t stop the war. He hopes instead that US President Donald Trump will grow frustrated (or bored) with the quagmire and withdraw support for Kyiv. That, Putin believes, would allow Russia to seize more of Ukraine.
Zelensky will keep calling for a ceasefire to persuade Trump – who toyed with the idea of coming to Istanbul on Thursday – that Putin’s the problem, in hopes of keeping some US support in place.
In the Philippines, Duterte edges latest edition of family feud
The battle for power in the Philippines is fought between two families: the Marcoses and Dutertes. Monday’s midterm elections favored the latter.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s partners look set to retain the Senate, but allies of Vice President Sara Duterte – who faces an impeachment trial – won more seats than expected. Duterte’s conviction is now less of a surefire bet.
In spite of the politics, House Republicans seek extra Medicaid requirements
When one House committee released its plan for adjusting Medicaid, it omitted the cuts that some ardent deficit hawks in the Republican Party sought. However, it still includes changes that could leave millions of recipients uncovered.
Politically, this is a risky move – polls show huge support for the welfare program. Fiscal conservatives in the GOP, though, will feel that the party must do it now, while they hold unified control of Congress.
A voter casting a ballot in front of the Philippines flag.
Philippine midterms are next episode in Marcos-Duterte drama
The Philippines will hold midterm elections on May 12, with all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half the 24-member Senate, and various provincial, city, and municipal positions up for grabs. The winners will take office on June 30, with terms of six years for the senators and three years for all other officeholders.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hopes to maintain his control of Congress as he seeks to advance his legislative agenda and expand his influence at the expense of former president Rodrigo Duterte’s political faction. In July, the new Senate will hold an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is the former president’s daughter and has repeatedly clashed with Marcos.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford what to watch for in this weekend’s vote.
What are the most important races?
The focus is really on the 12 Senate seats up for election; the House tends to align with the sitting president regardless of its composition. Marcos’s coalition currently consists of six parties in the Senate and nine in the House. Political parties have long been weak in the Philippines, so the concept of a “majority” is very fluid, especially in the Senate, which often acts independently of the president. Officially, the Senate is broken down into “majority bloc,” “minority bloc,” and independents – but “majority” refers to those senators who support the Senate president. This maps roughly, but not precisely, onto the coalition supporting Marcos (or not). There are members of the same party in both the majority and minority blocs, for example. It is therefore easier, but more subjective, to map out the senators who support Marcos and those who do not.
So, what are the stakes in the Senate races?
There are two main implications. First, and more significant for Marcos’s agenda, is whether Marcos retains majority support in the upper house; failure to do so would make it harder to pass proposed economic legislation, including a power sector overhaul aimed at lowering high electricity prices and modest revenue-raising measures designed to trim the large budget deficit and provide more resources for social spending priorities. Second, Duterte-Carpio’s political future is at stake following her impeachment by the House earlier this year on charges of high crimes related to death threats against the president and betrayal of public trust related to alleged misuse of intelligence funds (please see more below).
What are the most important issues for voters heading into these elections?
Surveys show that cost-of-living concerns are by far the biggest issue for voters. The Philippines has been grappling with relatively high inflation in recent years, with food prices a particular concern; price rises have slowed in recent months but that has not yet translated into shifts in public opinion. According to a recent poll, 79% of Filipinos disapprove of the administration’s efforts to control inflation, with just 3% approving. After cost-of-living, voters’ main concerns are pay, corruption, crime, and poverty.
How do the candidates propose to address these concerns?
They have made generic promises about tackling poverty but offered little in terms of specific measures. Philippine elections, especially those for congress, are primarily driven by the personalities and name recognition of the candidates. Many voters will be casting their ballots on the basis of who they know and like, rather than the policy or ideological views of the candidates. It’s worth noting that six of the top 12 candidates in polls are show business personalities; another popular figure is the former boxer Manny Pacquiao, a senator who is running for reelection.
How does the feud between the Marcos and Duterte clans play into election dynamics?
The battle for influence between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties sets the backdrop for the midterms. The upcoming polls will not have an impact on how long Marcos serves as president: He is bound by a single six-year term limit and is very unlikely to be impeached or removed by a coup before his terms ends in 2028. But the outcome of the upcoming Senate poll will determine whether Duterte-Carpio is removed from office and banned from running for public office again. Duterte-Carpio is the early favorite for the 2028 presidential election and the Marcos clan likely hopes she is prevented from running, making it easier for a member of the president’s family or another ally to succeed him.
Duterte-Carpio’s Senate trial is due to begin in late July. If two-thirds (16) of the senators vote against the vice president, she will be removed from office and probably barred from holding other government offices in the future (there is some debate about whether the latter would automatically apply if she is found guilty). She needs only nine senators to vote against or abstain. In addition, the outlook is complicated by the fact that some senators counted in the “pro-Marcos” majority, as they tend to support the administration’s bills, are actually closer to the Dutertes and will likely oppose her removal. That said, the president could press allies to vote against her.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
U.S. President Donald Trump salutes as he attends the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on April 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Trump rolls real eggs, UAE seeks AI’s help, White House nixes safety jobs, South China Sea gets battle-tested, Gold rush, Senior US official robbed
30,000: Rising egg prices don’t seem to have hit the White House, as nearly 30,000 real eggs adorned the White House lawn Monday morning for the 147th annual Easter egg roll. Donald Trump paid tribute to Pope Francis, defended embattled US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and shared photos with the Easter bunny.
1: Hey ChatGPT, can you propose some new legislation for the United Arab Emirates? Yes, the Emirati nation plans to become the first country to harness the power of artificial intelligence to propose new legislation.
875: Out of the roughly 1,000 National Institute for Occupational Safety and Healthjobs, the Trump administration has cut 875 of them as part of its broader effort to slash the number of federal employees. This move could especially harm former coal miners – who often suffer from lung disease – as NIOSH has helped them find work outside the mines.
14,000: More than 14,000 American and Filipino soldiers – 9,000 from the US, 5,000 from the Philippines – are participating in a “full battle test” this year, amid mounting tensions in the South China Sea. The coordinated drill will also feature soldiers from Australia, Canada, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The exercise, which started on Monday, will run for three weeks.
$3,400: An age-gold problem: The price of gold surpassed $3,400 on Monday amid fears over the future of the global economy and concerns for the Federal Reserve’s independence. A year ago today, the price of gold was at $2,384.
$3,000: A thief swiped US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s bag while she was having dinner in Washington, DC, on Sunday night, taking her passport, makeup bag, checkbook, and $3,000 in cash. Police officers have not yet caught the thief, believed to be a white male.Filipino activists hold candles during a protest vigil supporting former President Rodrigo Duterte's arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, March 11, 2025.
Duterte arrested for drug war
Philippine authorities on Tuesday arrested former President Rodrigo Duterte in Manila on an International Criminal Court warrant for alleged crimes against humanity linked to his deadly drug crackdown. He was reportedly put on a plane headed for The Hague within hours of being detained.
Duterte’s drug war started during his 22-year reign as the mayor of Davao and ramped up after he became president in 2016. An estimated 30,000 Filipinos were killed by police throughout that period, which led the ICC to start looking into the killings back in 2018. Shortly after the court’s probe got underway, Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC.
This has led to questions about the ICC’s jurisdiction. But Rutgers Law professor Adil Haque says “the court retains jurisdiction over crimes committed before the Philippines’ withdrawal in 2019.”
It is less clear, however, whether Philippine law allows him to be extradited to The Hague. And the former president still has lots of support back home, says International Crisis Group’s Georgi Englebrecht. “As of now, there are several rallies in cities in Mindanao — Davao, Cotabato, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro as well as online outcry about the decision. I think we can expect more rallies,” he said.
Will there be much political fallout? Experts do not believe serious upheaval is likely or that the arrest will have much impact on the midterm elections in May.
But one thing is clear: The massive rift between the country’s political dynasties, the Marcos and Duterte families, is alive and well.
A Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy Harbin Z-9 helicopter sits on CNS Yulin during a display of warships ahead of an exhibition at Changi Naval Base in Singapore on May 18, 2015.
China’s “dangerous” helicopter maneuver escalates tensions with US and Philippines
A Chinese naval helicopter flew nearly 10 feet from a Philippine patrol plane on Tuesday over a contested reef in the South China Sea, escalating tensions with Manila and Washington in the airspace over international waterways Beijing claims as its own.
The move, which the US condemned as a “dangerous maneuver,” comes months after a series of seaborne attacks in which Chinese coast guard vessels rammed Philippine ships.
Both Beijing and Manila claim the Scarborough Shoal – known in China as Huangyan Island and in the Philippines as Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc – located less than 150 miles off the west coast of the main Philippine island of Luzon. But China has controlled the waters around the unpopulated reef since 2012. In recent months, the Philippines and the US have sought to assert Manila’s sovereignty by flying air patrols over the shoal.
In a tense 30-minute standoff on Tuesday, a gray People’s Liberation Army naval Harbin Z-9 chopper hovered just over the wing of a Philippine C-208 light utility plane after Beijing said the Philippines “illegally invaded the airspace” over the shoal. Washington rebuked the move against its ally, whose 74-year mutual defense treaty both the Biden and Trump administrations have sought to reinforce over the past year.
“We condemn the dangerous maneuvers by a PLA Navy helicopter that endangered pilots and passengers on a Philippine air mission,” MaryKay Carlson, the US ambassador to Manila, wrote in a post on X. “We call on China to refrain from coercive actions and settle its disputes peacefully in accordance with international law.”
Flashback to a heated summer: Last June, Chinese coast guards wielding knives and axes rammed their ship into a Filipino vessel, injuring eight sailors and severing the thumb of one. The attack was intended to halt a resupply mission to a Philippine outpost in the Sierra Madre, a rusting World War II vessel run aground years ago on the shoal to mark Manila’s claim. China accused the Philippines of secretly hauling equipment to reinforce the decaying ship among food and water supplies for Philippine marines stationed on the outpost.
The bottom line: “While scary, this is more a continuation of near-boiling point tensions, where neither Beijing nor Manila wants the dispute to spill over into outright conflict,” said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group. But Tuesday’s incident, he added, is “increasing the risk for both China and the Philippines that there could be some kind of aerial collision between the two countries.”
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte attends a legislative inquiry into her office's use of public funds at the House of Representatives, in Quezon City, Philippines, on Nov. 25, 2024.
Philippines’ vice president impeached
The charges aren’t yet public but Duterte has previously been accused of misappropriating public funds and threatening to kill the president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
She denies the allegations and says they are politically motivated. The legislature is controlled by a Marcos ally who is positioning himself to run for president after Marcos’ term ends in 2028.
The background: It’s a clash between the country’s two most powerful political families. Duterte’s father is former President Rodrigo Duterte, a rough-spoken China-friendly populist who held power from 2016 until 2022. Marcos Jr. is the son of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who was deposed in a 1986 popular revolution.
In the 2022 elections, the two scions joined forces. They won handily but soon fell out over key issues, especially foreign policy: Duterte wants to maintain her father’s pro-China reorientation. Marcos Jr., wary of Beijing’s designs on Philippine territorial waters, wants to roll those policies back and follow a more traditional pro-US line.
What’s next: The Senate will schedule an impeachment trial. If found guilty, Duterte would be barred from office, upending politics ahead of this spring’s midterm elections and the 2028 presidential vote in which she’s an early frontrunner.
Why it matters: Political upheaval now looms in a key regional player on the frontlines of the US-China rivalry.U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poses with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr during a courtesy call at the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, November 18, 2024.
Philippines locks in enhanced defense deal with US to deter China
Manila’s top defense official Gilberto Teodorosigned a treaty with the US on Monday that will allow the Philippines to access more closely-held military intelligence and purchase more advanced technology to defend itself from China. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the agreement was meant to display Washington’s commitment, saying, “We are more than allies. We are family.”
Unlike some other US allies, Manila feels quite confident that its relationship with Washington will stay strong under incoming President Donald Trump. Trump and Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. spoke over the phone on Tuesday about strengthening the alliance, which Marcos said was “very productive.”
Trump is pledging a hawkish approach to China, and the Philippines is eager to upgrade its own defenses given ongoing conflicts over the South China Sea. The strong alignment on shared interests and Marcos’praise for Trump’s “robust leadership” seem promising, as long as he can make the case to Trump that the US is coming out ahead in the transaction.
How is China preparing for Trump? President Xi Jinping attempted to set boundaries in the relationship at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru over the weekend. He drew “four red lines” for Trump to avoid: undermining the Communist Party, pushing China toward democracy, stifling China’s economic rise, and encouraging Taiwanese independence.
“These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations,” he said. But with Trump promising punitive tariffs up to 60% on Chinese goods, and appointing China hardliners like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, confrontation looks likely.