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A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014.
China and Philippines sign South China Sea deal
Manila announced Sunday it had reached a “provisional agreement” with Beijing aimed at establishing an arrangement in the South China Sea that both sides can live with — without renouncing territorial claims. The text of the deal has not yet been released.
The agreement builds off last week’s announcement of the establishment of presidential hotlines and signals a desire for de-escalation by both countries – following a serious clash on June 17. But the key word in this agreement is “provisional” as both Beijing and Manila are already showing irreconcilable differences in their positions.
China had previously told Manila it could not bring construction materials to the wreck of the Sierra Madre, a decrepit hulk deliberately beached on the South Thomas Shoal by Manila to give it de facto control. Without repairs, the ship will likely break apart soon. But Beijing claims Manila agreed to give China advanced notice and allowed inspections of shipments sent to the marines it keeps stationed there carrying food and supplies. A senior Filipino official told the Associated Press that the final deal did not require the Philippines to pre-notify the Chinese of shipments.
What to watch? A deal to cool temperatures in the South China Sea would be welcome news for all parties, including the US. “The next big test,” says Eurasia Group senior China analyst Jeremy Chan, “will be how both Manila and Beijing behave on future resupply missions, and whether either side can cede any ground.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr review the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 4, 2023
Can a hotline prevent war in South China Sea?
I know when that hotline bling, that can only mean one thing: Beijing and Manila are beefing over uninhabitable rocks again. China and the Philippines have reportedly set up a bilateral hotline meant to help them avoid a deadly incident in the disputed South China Sea.
The effort to improve communications follows a particularly violentconfrontation on June 17, when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded Filipino vessels wielding bladed weapons. One Filipino sailor lost his finger, and the fear is that should someone lose their life, Manila could activate its mutual defense treaty with the United States.
The Biden administration has struck a nuanced position, assuring Manila that it would honor the treaty fully while also attempting to signal to China that they aren’t handing out carte blanche to the Philippines. Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says proactive communication after the June 17 incident has helped lower the temperature.
“Beijing interpreted the June 28 call between Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and China's Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu in particular as a clear signal that Washington does not support Manila in pushing its territorial claims too aggressively,” he said.
Being able to quickly pick up the phone and talk through future incidents is a useful pressure release valve, but longer term, the South China Sea and the shoals used to mark de facto control will remain a tension point. We are watching how it will affect US and Chinese efforts to stabilize their own relationship.
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China tells NATO to butt out
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine. The foreign ministry’s comments come amid increasing cooperation between NATO and US allies in the Pacific, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Washington and its allies accuse China of helping Russia skirt arms controls by shipping so-called “dual use” goods that can be applied in both civilian and military contexts. In turn, China gets access to heavily discounted Russian oil and gas — a desirable asset at any time, but advantageous for China’s economy at a moment when it appears particularly shaky.
At home, however, Beijing has signaled not to expect “strong medicine” to boost the economy at next week’s upcoming Third Party Plenum, scheduled for July 15-18 behind closed doors.
These meetings are closely watched because past leaders have used them to deliver big news. Deng Xiaoping announced the earth-shaking “Opening and Reform” policy, for example, at the 1978 session.
Xi Jinping isn’t expected to announce any major policy shifts, according to experts at Eurasia Group. So we’ll be watching for language intended to boost consumer confidence battered by the roiling debt crisis, but little by way of decisive policy.Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine's Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro shake hands after signing the reciprocal access agreement, at the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, July 8, 2024.
Can Japan afford to muscle up?
Japan and the Philippines signed a new defense pact on Monday, allowing the mutual deployment of forces to each other’s territory for training – part of a larger mutual effort to stave off China. But while Tokyo’s diplomats are sealing deals with much-needed allies, its defense officials are stressing that a weak yen threatens to eat up their budgets.
Before the Filipino deal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reached similar defense agreements with Australia and the UK, and he has established historically warmer ties with South Korea, improving political and military cooperation. He is also trying to double defense spending by 2027, which would make Japan the world’s third-largest military spender. So why is Tokyo slashing orders for new airplanes and warning of more cuts?
FILE PHOTO: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. looks on as he meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, March 19, 2024.
Manila-Beijing talks: Can they agree over South China Sea clashes?
Representatives from China and the Philippines met for crucial talks in Manila on Tuesday to put some guardrails on escalating tension in the South China Sea following a serious confrontation last month. Three of Manila’s ships were damaged on June 17 when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded them while wielding edged weapons, and one Filipino sailor lost a finger.
Manila had hoped China would promise to pay for the damage they caused during the most recent incident. But the meeting ended without any substantial agreement beyond affirming a joint “commitment to de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions.”
Still, Washington is likely relieved both sides agreed to keep talking about ways to tone down the increasingly violent confrontations. The US has repeatedly warned China that it will honor its mutual defense treaty obligations to the Philippines if needed.
Neither side wants war, but both Beijing and Manila see the South China Sea issue as one of core sovereignty – both sides feel this is their territory – and don’t find much room for compromise. We’ll be watching any future negotiations that might keep a lid on things until the US election in November, which could cause strategic re-evaluations if Donald Trump wins.Chinese sailors armed with axes and machetes threaten Filipino sailors on a supply run, 17 June, 2024.
Marcos cools temperature in South China Sea
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attempted to de-escalate tensions between Manila and Beijing this Saturday following last week’s violent maritime confrontation during a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese forces last Monday rammed Philippine navy boats, confiscated rifles and inflatable craft, and attacked sailors with axes and machetes.Five seamen were treated for injuries including one who lost a thumb.
“We are not in the business of instigating wars,” Marcos said at a ceremony awarding medals to soldiers involved in the mission, but added: “We will never be intimidated or oppressed by anyone.”
Marcos refused to invoke his country’s 1951 mutual defense treaty with the US,which condemned China’s actions, as did the European Union, Japan, Australia, and other Western and Asian nations. Washington has made it clear to Beijing thatthe treaty requires it to defend Philippine forces if they are attacked.
In what some are calling a concession to China, Marcos also approved a recommendation by the Philippine National Maritime Council to publicize the navy’s schedule for supply runs to the Shoal. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin suggested that China’s lack of prior knowledge about the latest missionmay have triggered the confrontation. We’ll be watching whether improved communication can keep a lid on Beijing’s aggression in the area.Members of the Indian Navy on board the vessel INS Kadmatt (F29) (L) and INS Satpura (F48) arrive for a four-day goodwill visit which aims to strengthen ties between India and the Philippines, at the Pier 15 in Port Are, metro Manila, Philippines October 3, 2017.
India sends ships to South China Sea as it builds naval strength
When Indian warships steamed into Manila Harbor on Monday, they sent a message to Beijing. With its land borders cut off by archrival Pakistan, wartorn Myanmar, and an increasingly hostile Beijing, New Delhi is committed to becoming a world-class naval power. The port call in the Philippines followed similar stops in Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia as India attempts to build stronger bonds with Southeast Asian partners, many of whom share anxieties about China’s territorial ambitions.
New Delhi has a long way to go. The Indian fleet is only around a third the size of China’s (the world’s largest by number of vessels), but it has over five dozen ships under construction. By 2050, New Delhi hopes to have 200 ships afloat, ideally built at home — a plan that looks all the more feasible given India’s recent economic growth.
And a navy will be key to maintaining those high, export-driven growth rates by keeping the seas safe for Indian traffic. In just the last nine months, the Indian Navy has come to the aid of four ships that were attacked while transiting the Red Sea. We’re watching how a more capable India throws its weight around on the high seas, and how China responds.Enrique A. Manalo
Great power politics. Sort of.
Canada launched its Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2022 and has since experienced a tough go of things with China and India. Since it kicked off, India kidnapped two Canadians and was found responsible for the extrajudicial killing of a Canadian on domestic soil. But Manolo says as far as the Phillipines is concerned, relations between it and Canada have “really grown in the past two years.”
Now the challenge will be for Canada to navigate growing its relationship with the Philippines without further alienating Beijing, which has a tense relationship with Jakarta, or straying too far from US geopolitical goals. With Canada’s foreign policy goals less than realized in recent years, these will be rocky shoals to traverse. Canada must balance its core relationship with the US and its secondary relationships with regional partners while managing relations with growing powers such as India and China with whom it shares strategic goals, such as trade and climate action, but against whom it often competes on security.