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Police in and around a high school in Graz, Austria, after a gunman killed nine people at the school, on June 10, 2025.
What We’re Watching: School shooting in Austria, Duterte impeachment update, Crapo shoots for the moon
Shooter kills nine at Austrian school
A gunman killed at least nine people at a school in Graz, Austria, on Tuesday, in what appears to be the worst school shooting in the country’s post-war history. The 21-year-old suspect, who was an ex-student of the school, reportedly took his own life. Austria has relatively liberal gun laws, compared to some other European countries, so we’ll be watching to see if this tragedy prompts any debate about tighter restrictions.
Could Duterte nab an impeachment reprieve?
The Philippines Senate on Tuesday sent impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte back to the House for constitutional clarifications. It’s a reprieve for Duterte, who faces impeachment on allegations of high crimes, including a plot to kill her political (and dynastic) rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The stakes are high: if impeached, Duterte could be blocked from running for president in 2028. The political blowback could be severe, thoug: The vice president’s party outperformed expectations in last month’s midterm elections.
Trump’s Big Bill is now a Crapo-shoot
All eyes in Washington are today on Sen. Mike Crapo, Republican from Idaho who, as chairman of the Finance Committee, will be marking up President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax-and-spending bill. Crapo has his work cut out: A cadre of budget hawk GOP senators have called for cuts to the spending outlined in the House-passed version of the bill, while others are worried that any significant savings will come at the expense of Medicaid or other popular programs. Rock, meet hard place: Over to you, Mike.
Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, speaks during a policy agreement ceremony with the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions at the Korea Press Center in Seoul, South Korea, on May 1, 2025.
South Korean court throws likely next president into jeopardy
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung had a rough day on Thursday. The Supreme Court sent the election law case against him back to a lower court, a move that could extend the country’s political chaos. Lee is the favorite to win the June 3 election, but he could be ousted from office if the court rules against him weeks, months, or even years down the line.
The legal circumstances are murky. If elected, Lee might claim that he’s constitutionally protected from prosecution. But the constitution only gives the sitting president immunity against indictment for crimes — other than treason, as impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol knows all too well. Lee has already been indicted, setting up a contentious debate if the courts rule against him, according to Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
“The conservatives will be saying that he clearly committed this crime and was charged before he became president, and the punishment is that he’s not allowed to seek public office, which would invalidate this whole election,” says Chan. “The left will be saying that the highest law in the land says very specifically that the president should be immune from these types of charges, and should focus on governing.”
The conservative ruling party is still reeling from Yoon’s impeachment after his quixotic attempt at a military coup in December. Nonetheless, acting President Han Duck-soo resigned on Thursday to make way for his own bid for the top job, despite grim polling numbers. The Joong Ang Daily, a conservative paper, found 42% of voters are leaning toward Lee, while only 13% back Han.
Then again, given the sword of Damocles hanging over Lee, Han might be willing to roll the dice.
People celebrate after President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment was accepted, near the Constitutional Court in Seoul, South Korea, on April 4, 2025.
South Korean president ousted, election looms
South Korea’s Constitutional Court on Friday voted unanimously to oust impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol over his decision to declare martial law in December. Supporters of Yoon who gathered near the presidential residence in Seoul reportedly cried out in disappointment as the court’s 8-0 decision was announced. Others cheered the ruling. The center-right leader is now the second South Korean president to be ousted.
South Korean authorities deployed a whopping 14,000 officers and 210 riot units throughout the capital to deal with expected mass protests and potential violence. Yoon did not attend the reading of the verdict, reportedly due to security concerns, but he accepted the decision. He expressed remorse for the way his time in office ended.
“I deeply regret not being able to live up to your hopes and expectations,” the former prosecutor said in a statement.
Yoon’s ouster caps a tumultuous period for South Korea. His martial law declaration marked the first time since 1980 that a South Korean leader had used such powers, and it triggered dark memories of the country’s military rule. Even though the declaration lasted just six hours, the National Assembly impeached Yoon in a bipartisan vote on the grounds that he violated his constitutional duty.
Friday’s ruling starts the clock for a presidential election within 60 days, during which time Han Duck-soo,prime minister and acting president, will remain at the helm.
Yoon faces more legal woes. The former president now faces criminal charges for alleged treason, marking the latest battle between the judicial branch and a political leader — and echoing similar clashes in Brazil, France, Israel, Romania, and the United States. Even if the Constitutional Court had ruled in Yoon’s favor, he still would have faced these charges, but the decision against him makes the case much more likely to proceed.Protesters demanded the ouster of South Korean President Yoon in central Seoul on March 29, 2025.
South Korean leader to learn his political fate on Friday
Controversy on the peninsula. The impeachment case revolves around whether Yoon unconstitutionally declared martial law on Dec. 3, a move that lasted all of six hours. The National Assembly, which is dominated by the center-left Democratic Party, impeached the center-right president 11 days after the incident on the grounds that he violated his constitutional duty (and did so with the support of a handful of lawmakers from Yoon’s own party). While many demonstrated against Yoon’s declaration of martial law, his conservative backers – a small but vocal minority – have taken to the streets in recent months to show their support for the president.
Don’t bet against Yoon’s removal from office. Six of the court’s eight justices need to vote for Yoon’s removal if he is to be removed from office, an outcome that Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan believes is more likely than not.
“Public support for Yoon’s removal remains high, and the legal merits of the case against Yoon are solid. Excusing his martial law declaration would also risk normalizing it for future leaders,” he said.
Should the court rule in Yoon’s favor, he would return to office immediately, but if the court rules against him, as expected, South Korea must hold presidential elections within 60 days. Regardless of the ruling, Yoon still faces criminal charges for alleged treason – the one charge for which a sitting president is not immune. While the legal system may stem the criminal proceedings if he retains his presidential immunity, it is far more likely to proceed if he is removed from office.
Schools will be closed Friday, and police will be out in force in anticipation of mass protests, which are likely no matter how the court rules, says Chan.
Sea change for Seoul? If Yoon’s impeachment is formalized, acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will remain at the helm until an election takes place this spring. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, of the center-left, is the firm favorite to win at the polls. With a more dovish foreign policy stance, South Korea under Lee would likely seek warmer ties with China and North Korea, says Chan.
“Lee is a progressive populist who has been skeptical of the pro-US and pro-Japan tilt that South Korea’s foreign policy took under Yoon,” he said.
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of impeached South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol participate in a rally outside the Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang, South Korea, January 18, 2025.
Yoon dodges questioning after supporters storm court
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeolrefused to accompany police officers for questioning on Monday, after his supporters stormed a court that approved his continued detention on Sunday. Ninety people were detained during the clash, and other people who participated are being identified for prosecution.
The authorities might not have to search that hard. The rioters livestreamed themselves blasting lines of police with foam from fire extinguishers and entering the courthouse by force. They broke into at least one judge’s chamber during the brief incursion.
Yoon said through his lawyers that he found the rampage “shocking and unfortunate” but that he understood the “rage and unfairness” many Koreans felt. His lawyers have argued that his arrest last Wednesday was illegal and that the court has no jurisdiction in this matter.
Politics are in the most precarious place in years. While impeached, Yoon has still not been formally removed from office, and the long delay has allowed his political allies to consolidate. Elections will be held 60 days after Yoon is formally removed by the Constitutional Court.
In the meantime, markets are suffering through the uncertainty, and the central bank downgraded economic growth forecasts for the coming year to between 1.6% and 1.7%.South Korean President Yoon arrested
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested by officers from the national corruption authority after an hours-long standoff on Wednesday morning. His detainment comes six weeks after his short-lived imposition of martial law, for which he was impeached and suspended from office, but his final removal is pending a ruling from the Constitutional Court.
Yoon, the first South Korean president to be arrested while technically still in office, was taken via motorcade to a detention center in the suburbs of Seoul. In a statement posted to social media, Yoon said he chose to submit to arrest to avoid violence, but he reportedly refused to answer questions during police interrogation. Police now have less than 48 hours to formally charge him before they must obtain a warrant to continue holding him.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says Yoon can’t keep dragging his feet. “Now that he has been removed from his official residence, Yoon will likely be unable to avoid answering the questions of CIO investigators, the Constitutional Court, and parliamentary hearings.”
The arrest blows South Korea further into uncharted waters. When former President Park Geun-hye was impeached in 2017, prosecutors waited for her removal before bringing charges and arrest warrants. South Korean presidents may be arrested for insurrection, which is what Yoon is facing, but otherwise enjoy immunity from prosecution.
Part of the rush has to do with opposition leader Lee Jae-myung’s own legal problems. If the Supreme Court rules against him in corruption cases related to his earlier political positions, he could be barred from standing for president — but if he can force Yoon out and hold elections in time, it renders the issue moot.
Still, Lee is looking like much less of a sure bet than he was in mid-December. His party’s support among voters has fallen from 52% in the beginning of December to 42% in January, barely ahead of Yoon’s party at 40%.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae Yul following their talks in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2025.
South Korean authorities get extension to Yoon arrest warrant
South Korean anti-corruption authorities reached a deal with police to extend their warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday after failing to arrest him on Friday. A six-hour standoff with presidential security in the official residence amounted to nothing, and the corruption investigators have asked the National Police Agency to take over the responsibility of detaining Yoon. Authorities have not disclosed the new extension's expiration date.
Police are in uncharted waters, however, as no previous South Korean president has been arrested before being removed from office. Yoon was impeached in December, but vacancies on the constitutional court have prevented his official removal. Meanwhile, his party is playing for time – hoping to stall long enough to allow the high court to rule on a case that could render the opposition leader ineligible to run in elections to replace Yoon.
The gridlock is starting to chafe allies, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had expressed “serious concerns” during talks in Seoul with his counterpart on Monday. But Blinken also praised the strong response of South Korean institutions to Yoon’s attempt to seize power through martial law.
North Korea, which has taken a cautious approach thus far amid Seoul’s domestic upheaval, used Blinken’s visit as an opportunity to test a medium-range missile with a supposedly hypersonic capacity. We’re watching how Pyongyang approaches potential provocations once the Biden administration leaves the scene.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to the nation at the Presidential Office in Seoul, South Korea, December 12, 2024.
South Korean president’s removal slows down over court vacancies
On Tuesday, the floor leader for South Korea’s newly-impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol’s party said it would be inappropriate to fill vacancies on the constitutional court with the powers of an acting president, setting up a fight aimed at slow-rolling Yoon’s final removal from office.
Wait, how is Yoon impeached but not gone? It’s a two-step process. The National Assembly was able to clear the two-thirds supermajority to impeach Yoon on Saturday, and he was immediately suspended from office. Now at least six justices on the constitutional court need to approve the legality of the impeachment — and this isn’t a given. The court overturned the much more controversial impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004. Once that hurdle is cleared, Yoon is gone for good, and a sixty day clock starts ticking down to fresh elections.
There’s just one problem. Three of the court’s nine seats are vacant, meaning the entire bench would need to vote unanimously to remove Yoon. Even though the facts are pretty stacked against Yoon, just one justice could theoretically put him back in office, which is why the liberal opposition wants to fill the three seats.
Ideally, as quickly as possible, because their leader, and presumptive presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung is in legal hot water of his own. He was convicted of violating election laws and handed a one-year suspended sentence in November, which could prevent him from running for president — if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the opposition “recognizes that the longer this drags out, the greater the chances that the Supreme Court will have time to rule on Lee’s conviction,” and possibly keep him out of the race. We’re watching how acting president Han Duck-soo handles the vacancies, as well as how the criminal case against Yoon and his collaborators proceeds.