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Watching Mitch McConnell

The US House of Representatives voted on Wednesday to impeach President Trump a second time. The outcome was a bit different this time because 10 House Republicans (of 211 total) voted in favor.

But there's a far more consequential difference between this impeachment and the one early last year. This time, there's a genuine possibility that when the article is sent to the Senate, two thirds of senators will vote to convict Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors. That would be a first in American history.

The outcome hinges on one man: Republican Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

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Quick Take: President Trump should be removed from office

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here on the beginning of this extraordinary week, with the United States dominating international news, and the way we think about the future of the global order. You can say we dodged a bullet last week though. We are certainly not through the political crisis in the United States. Certainly, I also think about how it could have been a lot worse. How close we were to the vice president, his family, members of Congress, getting injured or killed. Frankly in terms of the election, if the house had turned to the GOP, and it was close to doing so, how the election response to a Biden win could have been contested much more easily, and you then have indeed a constitutional crisis. Or if the vote was much closer than it was, as opposed to the seven million and significant electoral count difference, about how the president could have been more successful, in his consistent efforts to overturn the outcome.

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Trump impeachment 2.0

After last week's storming of the US Capitol building, we asked whether Congress would act to hold President Trump responsible for inciting the insurrection to overturn the result of the 2020 election. We now know the answer: House Democrats on Monday unveiled an article of impeachment against Trump.

But though the House will vote in the coming days to begin the process, Trump — the first US president to be impeached twice — will no longer be in office by the time a trial begins in the Senate. So, why do it? Here are a few arguments for and against.

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Is the US–Iran crisis over?

Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, offers his analysis on today's big stories in US Politics:

Is the US-Iran crisis over?

I would say no, it's not over. It certainly de-escalated with some help from the Swiss as intermediaries. But Iran could still look to strike back really at any moment, on US oil interests, through cyberattacks. The nuclear deal is still nowhere. So, de-escalated, not over.

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First GOP Congressman Says Trump’s Conduct Is Impeachable

Will Congressman Justin Amash's call for impeachment change anything?

I don't think it fundamentally changes anything. It gives Democrats a little cover to say there's bipartisan support for impeachment but not a lot of Republicans are going to jump on that train.

Can Joe Biden win in the industrial Midwest?

He absolutely can. He's got a lot of blue collar support. Trump's trade war is hurting him across the industrial Midwest. So Biden's a real threat to Trump there, if he gets the nomination.

Will abortion be a big issue in 2020?

Well now it will, with the restrictive law in Alabama and elsewhere. That's going to galvanize the women's vote. Probably get some evangelicals even more excited for Trump. So yes, big issue 2020.

Final question today is - The Rant. And my rant is on President Trump tweeting today about how all of Wall Street wanted to do business with him but he just liked Deutsche Bank better than the rest. Simply not true. Banks across Wall Street stopped doing business with Trump because he was too much of a risk. And they just didn't want his business. So surprise, surprise, Trump is tweeting things that aren't accurate.

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