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South Korea's President-elect Lee Jae-myung waves as he leaves to meet his supporters, in Incheon, South Korea, June 3, 2025.
What We’re Watching: South Korea's election results, Ukraine strikes Crimean bridge, Sudan's government disolves
Lee Jae-myung poised for victory in South Korea’s election
Progressive candidate Lee Jae-myung is expected to soundly defeat conservative opponent Kim Moon-soo in the Korean presidential election, with exit polls showing him winning by 12 points. Lee shifted to the center during the campaign, but his political history may indicate otherwise – his victory could also signal a more cozy relationship with long-time rival China. To read more about how his election could realign the Indo-Pacific, click here.
Ukraine strikes key Crimean bridge
Ukraine launched a powerful underwater explosion damaging the Kerch Bridge on Tuesday, a critical road and rail link between Russia and occupied Crimea. The attack, following a drone strike on Russian bombers on Sunday, signals Ukraine’s increasing reach and resolve. Peace talks remain deadlocked, and this attack is unlikely to bridge the gap.
Sudan’s new Prime Minister dissolves government amid ongoing civil war
Sudanese Prime Minister Kamil Idris dissolved the caretaker government on Sunday, just a day after taking office, signaling a major political setback amid a devastating civil war that has so far displaced 14 million people. Idris, who was to be the first civilian leader since 2022, offered no timeline for forming a new government
Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, speaks during a policy agreement ceremony with the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions at the Korea Press Center in Seoul, South Korea, on May 1, 2025.
South Korean court throws likely next president into jeopardy
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung had a rough day on Thursday. The Supreme Court sent the election law case against him back to a lower court, a move that could extend the country’s political chaos. Lee is the favorite to win the June 3 election, but he could be ousted from office if the court rules against him weeks, months, or even years down the line.
The legal circumstances are murky. If elected, Lee might claim that he’s constitutionally protected from prosecution. But the constitution only gives the sitting president immunity against indictment for crimes — other than treason, as impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol knows all too well. Lee has already been indicted, setting up a contentious debate if the courts rule against him, according to Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
“The conservatives will be saying that he clearly committed this crime and was charged before he became president, and the punishment is that he’s not allowed to seek public office, which would invalidate this whole election,” says Chan. “The left will be saying that the highest law in the land says very specifically that the president should be immune from these types of charges, and should focus on governing.”
The conservative ruling party is still reeling from Yoon’s impeachment after his quixotic attempt at a military coup in December. Nonetheless, acting President Han Duck-soo resigned on Thursday to make way for his own bid for the top job, despite grim polling numbers. The Joong Ang Daily, a conservative paper, found 42% of voters are leaning toward Lee, while only 13% back Han.
Then again, given the sword of Damocles hanging over Lee, Han might be willing to roll the dice.