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What We’re Watching: South Korea's election results, Ukraine strikes Crimean bridge, Sudan's government disolves

​South Korea's President-elect Lee Jae-myung waves as he leaves to meet his supporters, in Incheon, South Korea, June 3, 2025.

South Korea's President-elect Lee Jae-myung waves as he leaves to meet his supporters, in Incheon, South Korea, June 3, 2025.

REUTERS/Kim Soo-hyeon
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Lee Jae-myung poised for victory in South Korea’s election

Progressive candidate Lee Jae-myung is expected to soundly defeat conservative opponent Kim Moon-soo in the Korean presidential election, with exit polls showing him winning by 12 points. Lee shifted to the center during the campaign, but his political history may indicate otherwise – his victory could also signal a more cozy relationship with long-time rival China. To read more about how his election could realign the Indo-Pacific, click here.

Ukraine strikes key Crimean bridge

Ukraine launched a powerful underwater explosion damaging the Kerch Bridge on Tuesday, a critical road and rail link between Russia and occupied Crimea. The attack, following a drone strike on Russian bombers on Sunday, signals Ukraine’s increasing reach and resolve. Peace talks remain deadlocked, and this attack is unlikely to bridge the gap.


Sudan’s new Prime Minister dissolves government amid ongoing civil war

Sudanese Prime Minister Kamil Idris dissolved the caretaker government on Sunday, just a day after taking office, signaling a major political setback amid a devastating civil war that has so far displaced 14 million people. Idris, who was to be the first civilian leader since 2022, offered no timeline for forming a new government

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian displays a memorandum of understanding after signing it in Tehran, Iran, on June 18, 2026.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian displays a memorandum of understanding after signing it in Tehran, Iran, on June 18, 2026, after the document was signed by US President Donald Trump.

Iranian Presidency via ZUMA Press
What does the US-Iran deal mean for Tehran? The interim agreement to end the war, signed by both sides on Wednesday, appears to tilt toward Iran: it lifts the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, grants sanction waivers for Iranian oil products – meaning Tehran no longer has to sell oil at a discount – and gives the Islamic Republic access to [...]
People walking along the Dubai Creek Harbour

People walk along Dubai Creek Harbour, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 6, 2026.

REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File Photo
Will the Gulf pay for its own protection from Iran? Iran could reportedly receive up to $300 billion in a reconstruction fund for its battered economy as part of its interim peace deal with the US, which is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. While the structure and management of the potential fund are unclear, US President [...]
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at a news conference

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a news conference, following a US-Iran deal, in Jerusalem, June 15, 2026.

REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/Pool
US-Iran deal could spell disaster for NetanyahuIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was already struggling in polls ahead of elections later this year, but his situation might get worse after Washington and Tehran agreed to a deal (pending its signing on Friday). Why the issue with ending the war? Israel ploughed resources into the war, its [...]
A man holds an Iranian flag on a street while reading a newspaper

A man holds an Iranian flag on a street, after U.S. and Iranian officials said they had reached a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2026.

Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS
Is the US-Iran deal the real deal? The United States and Iran said Sunday that they had reached an interim agreement that could end the months-long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Officials are expected to sign the deal in Switzerland on Friday, following the G7 summit in France. If signed, it would mark the biggest diplomatic breakthrough [...]