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Wreckage of public transport buses involved in a head-on collision is parked at a police station near the scene of the deadly crash on the Kampala-Gulu highway in Kiryandongo district, near Gulu, northern Uganda, October 22, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Tragic car crash in Uganda, Europe’s largest economy turns east, Peru initiates state of emergency in capital city, & More
46: A horrific multi-vehicle crash on the Kampala-Gulu Highway in Uganda late last night has left 46 people dead. The pile up began after two buses traveling in opposite directions reportedly clashed “head on” as they tried to overtake two other vehicles. President Yoweri Museveni said the government would give five million shillings ($1,430) to each bereaved family.
€163.4 billion: Is Europe’s largest economy shifting east? The numbers would suggest so, as China replaced the United States as Germany’s leading trade partner. The two nations exchanged €163.4 billion ($190.7 billion) worth of products in the first eight months of this year, per Reuters, compared to US-Germany trade of €162.8 billion ($188.6 billion.) Washington has been Berlin’s largest trading partner for the last eight years, but the new US tariffs on the European Union look set to end that streak.
30: On Monday, Peruvian President Jose Jeri declared a 30-day state of emergency in the capital Lima and nearby provinces to battle rising crime. The order follows major Gen-Z led protests for action to combat crime, and similar state-of-emergency declarations under former President Dina Boluarte – she was removed 12 days ago over her inability to get crime under control.
55: Eric Lu became the first American to win the International Chopin Piano Competition in 55 years on Monday. Lu won the “Olympics of piano” after his performance of one of Chopin’s piano concertos and “Polonaise-Fantasie,” entirely from memory.
80: The United Nations isn’t the only organization turning 80 this month: the 80th National Basketball Association season began yesterday, with the defending champions Oklahoma City Thunder defeating the Houston Rockets in overtime in the opening game. The new season has also brought a renewal of US-China basketball ties, as the NBA hosted pre-season games in Macao – the first time in six years that China has hosted games.
Centrist senator and presidential candidate Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), speaks onstage as he celebrates following preliminary results on the day of the presidential runoff election, in La Paz, Bolivia, on October 19, 2025.
Bolivia takes a right turn – will its neighbors follow?
Bolivia elected a new president on Sunday, the centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira. The choice marks a sharp break from nearly two decades of left-wing dominance under the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). It also makes Bolivia the latest Latin American nation to tilt right, as voters across the region tire of high inflation, rampant crime, corruption, and failed reforms. The shift has big implications for both Bolivia and the area’s economic and political future, as well as its relationship with the United States and China.
Why did Bolivia’s voters leave the left?
Bolivia’s economy is in crisis, due to its change in the past few years from an exporter to importer of oil and gas. This resulted in a foreign-currency shortage as the central bank depleted its reserve of US dollars to buy imported fuel. In 2024, GDP growth was an anemic 1%; in 2025, inflation hit 23%. Bolivia now has regular gas shortages, with motorists lining up for hours at filling stations. Voters blamed the MAS government of former President Evo Morales, who nationalized the oil and gas industry in 2006, initially producing prosperity but eventually faltering due to mismanagement and a lack of investment.
Morales also had a slew of personal failings. In 2019, he fled the country following accusations of corruption, only to return a year later. In 2025, he was charged with statutory rape after fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl, and hid in the jungle to avoid arrest. In the wake of the latest scandal, his party imploded, and MAS’ replacement candidate for president scored a mere 3% in the first round of voting in August.
What does the new president promise to do?
Paz pledged to reform the economy, crack down on crime, and cultivate closer ties with Washington. However, he did not go as far as his chief rival, former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who campaigned on austerity measures, an IMF bailout, and extensive spending cuts. Paz promoted more incremental change, including tax incentives for small businesses, and greater fiscal autonomy for local governments. He also promised to phase out fuel subsidies, angering labor unions who oppose any cuts to social programs.
Paz’s Christian Democrat Party (PDC) failed to get a majority of seats, meaning that he will have to compromise on some policies to establish a workable coalition. The PDC won 49 of 130 seats in the lower house and 16 of 36 in the Senate, while Quiroga’s coalition, Freedom and Democracy (Libre), won 43 seats in the lower house and 12 in the Senate. While Paz and Quiroga agree on certain policies, such as foreign affairs, on others Paz could find common ground with the Unity party (Unidad Nacional) of Samuel Doria Medina, whose support was instrumental to Paz’s victory in the runoff election.
Part of a pattern?
Across Latin America, the political pendulum has swung away from the “pink tide” of the early 2000s, led by the late Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as well as socialist parties in Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua. Over the past few years, the governments of Argentina’s Javier Milei, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa have all advanced right-leaning agendas, promoting libertarian economics and security crackdowns. In Brazil’s and Chile’s recent municipal elections, center-right parties also made strong gains.
What this means for the US and China
Bolivia will likely align with Washington on trade and foreign policy, which will have implications for China. Morales had cultivated greater alignment with Beijing, as had much of South America: today China is South America’s largest trading partner and the second largest for Latin America after the US. While the Chinese demand for commodities remains strong, friendly right-of-center governments could provide an opening for Washington to divert more of the continent’s critical mineral exports to the American market.
The rightward swing also portends increased cooperation with the US on migration, security, and crime. The Trump administration already has an ally in Bukele, whose notorious supermax prisons are paid to incarcerate American deportees. US President Donald Trump has also declared war on drugs in the region: the CIA is now conducting operations inside Venezuela, the US has struck smuggling vessels carrying both Venezuelan and Colombian nationals, and Trump has now cut off aid to Colombia, calling its president a “drug leader.” Right-wing governments could potentially be more cooperative with Washington on curbing narcotics production and trafficking.
Upcoming elections
Voters in Colombia, Chile, Peru, and Brazil will be going to the polls within the next twelve months. Their choices could either reinforce or reverse the current trend.
“We’re expecting a broader shift to the right in most upcoming elections due to popular frustration with leftist incumbents,” says Eurasia Group’s Latin America Director Risa Grais-Targow. “While Bolivia fits that trend, the election was driven mostly by economic concerns, while votes in Chile, Colombia, and Peru are likely to be shaped more by security concerns, which has become the main voter concern in much of the region.”
But Latin America’s rightward shift isn’t monolithic: according to Grais-Targow, Brazil’s election looks closer to a toss-up, with Lula currently the slight favorite to win. If Paz succeeds in delivering growth, security and investment in Bolivia, however, this weekend’s vote could set the tone for other elections to come.
Government shutdown and trade tensions test US economy
As the US economy continues to defy expectations, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Global Macro Robert Kahn says the key question is whether a slowdown has been avoided or merely delayed. “The headline here is the impressive resilience of the US, maybe also the global economy over the last six months,” Kahn tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank–IMF Annual Meetings.
He points to an AI-driven boom and tariff dynamics as major short-term supports, while warning that these trends may not be sustainable. Kahn also highlights deep uncertainty in the US–China trade relationship, describing a “fragile” moment of misunderstanding and escalation. Looking ahead, he flags the uneven nature of US growth and a prolonged government shutdown as key risks that could shift the economic outlook heading into the end of the year.
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Trump, Xi, and the new US–China standoff
US–China relations are once again on edge. After Washington expanded export controls on Chinese tech firms, Beijing struck back with new limits on critical minerals. President Trump responded by threatening 100% tariffs, then quickly walked them back.
Ian Bremmer says neither side wants a full trade war: “Trump doesn’t want to risk inflation or crash the markets, and Xi knows both countries have real leverage over each other.”
As Trump and Xi prepare to meet, from TikTok control to Taiwan tensions, Ian explains why “this relationship is tense, but not heading for a blow-up.”
Hard Numbers: Google to build AI data hub in India, Mexican rains kill dozens, Venezuela shuts Norwegian embassy, China puts sanctions on Korean shipbuilder
64: Torrid rains in Mexico last week – the result of an unusual clash of hot and cold fronts – have left 64 dead and another 65 missing. The rain damaged some 100,000 homes, and has left five states without power. The worst-affected areas were in the central parts of the country, as well as along the Gulf Coast.
3: Just three days after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Caracas shut its embassy in Oslo on Monday. The Venezuelan didn’t mention Machado in its statement about the closure. Norway also suffered a diplomatic blow for similar reasons in 2010, when China suspended trade relations after the Nobel Committee awarded its prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.
5: China sanctioned five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding US investigations. The move coincided with new US-China port fees and sent Hanwha shares down nearly 6%. Seoul said it’s assessing the impact as tensions over shipbuilding escalate.Released hostage Evyatar David, who was kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and taken to Gaza, reacts upon arrival at the site of Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Hospital, in Petah Tikva, Israel, on October 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli hostages return home, China snaps back at Trump’s tariff threat, Madagascar’s president flees the country
The Israeli hostages are finally home – but what next for Gaza?
After two years in Hamas captivity, the last 20 living Israeli hostages – all of them men – have returned home from Gaza, sparking jubilant scenes both for the families and across the Jewish state. US President Donald Trump touted their return during a speech to the Knesset, declaring that Israel was “at peace.” As part of the deal, Israel released over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Though the ceasefire is holding in Gaza, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty over the fate of the enclave and its management, as thousands of Palestinians return home to destroyed neighborhoods. Hamas is reappearing on Gazan streets, and has been clashing with rival Palestinian clans in recent days – with dozens killed. Under Trump’s 20-point peace plan, Hamas will have no role in Gaza’s future, yet the US president said over the weekend that the militant group has “approval for a period of time” to run security there. But for how long?
China hits back following Trump’s tariff threat
There might be a ceasefire in Gaza, but the US-China trade war is heating up again, as Beijing pledged to hit back at Washington should Trump follow through with his Friday threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The US president is trying to bring the temperature down again, saying on social media yesterday that he doesn’t want to “hurt” China. He also appeared to retract his threat to cancel his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. Markets swung wildly over the weekend and into Monday amid the latest war of words between the world’s two biggest superpowers.
Madagascar’s president flees the country
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina fled the country on Monday, after the elite CAPSAT military unit joined the Gen-Z led protests that have raged across the country since September. CAPSAT further announced that they are taking over the army. The protests began over water and electricity shortages but have spiraled into grievances like corruption and quality of life. CAPSAT brought Rajoelina to power in a 2009 coup, but on Saturday announced that it would not shoot on the protesters and escorted them into the capital’s main square. The toppling of Madagascar’s government opens questions of who will lead the country next, and mirrors recent protests against ruling elites in countries like Nepal, Indonesia, and Morocco.U.S. President Donald Trump takes part in a welcoming ceremony with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.
What We’re Watching: China increases its trade leverage, Modi and Starmer meet, US undercuts Canada’s auto industry
China cracks down on critical minerals
China has implemented broad new restrictions on exports of rare earth and other critical minerals vital for semiconductors, the auto industry, and military technology, of which it controls 70% of the global supply. The restrictions come after China cut back its purchases of US soybeans, as Beijing seeks to strengthen its negotiating position ahead of trade talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump later this month.
Modi and Starmer cut defense deals in New Delhi
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a posse of 100 business leaders took a trip to India on Monday, where he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled a plan to double their current $56 billion of trade by 2030. During the visit, they announced new defense deals worth over $799 million, marking a push to reduce India’s reliance on Russian arms, even as the two sides differ over Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Starmer confirmed he discussed India’s purchases of Russian oil with Modi but respects India’s strategic independence and sees defense cooperation as key to strengthening their partnership.
Carney and Trump meet to talk tariffs
Washington and Toronto buzzed this week with talk of the Canada-US relationship. On Tuesday Prime Minister Mark Carney joined President Donald Trump in the Oval Office for a warm but inconclusive meeting. There were no breakthroughs on tariffs, just promises to “work quickly” on steel, aluminum, and energy. Trump did reportedly appreciate Carney’s proposal to revive the long-dead Keystone XL pipeline, which Trump had proposed in February.
The next day in Toronto, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told attendees at the Eurasia Group and BMO US-Canada Summit that bilateral tariff deals were possible but that the integration of the two countries’ auto industries was “over.” This provoked angry reaction from Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who threatened to retaliate by cutting off energy and critical-mineral exports to the US.
US-China AI race: Dueling strategies and potential risks
In this episode of "Ask Ian," Ian Bremmer explores the evolving AI landscape and competition between the US and China.
Both countries lead in AI capabilities but differ in strategy. The US focuses on developing foundational Large Language Models (LLMs), aiming for consumer engagement and significant valuation increases. In contrast, China seeks to deploy AI in core industrial sectors like biotechnology and space. Ian notes that China wants “more efficiency, they want better energy use.”
Ian also highlights a shift in US policy, citing Nvidia's deal with Trump on chip sales to China. He contrasts the geopolitical significance of TikTok to Trump's agenda with how Taiwan matters to Xi Jinping.
Lastly, Ian warns of societal risks due to AI's psychological impact, advocating for stringent regulations and cautioning against unchecked consumer AI deployment: "We need far better regulations, and we need far more safety for society and for our mental and emotional well‑being.”