We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives at the Beijing Capital International Airport, in Beijing, China, April 25, 2024.
Blinken meets with Xi, but no breakthroughs
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought up concerns over China's support for Russia with his counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing on Friday, before meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Blinken’s visit is largely meant to advance the mutual goal of stabilizing the relationship, and Xi said he wants to be "partners, not rivals" with the United States.
As Blinken landed in Shanghai for the first leg of his trip earlier this week, the Biden administration signed bills providing Taiwan with $8 billion in military aid and starting a process that could result in a ban of the popular video app TikTok in the US unless its Chinese owner, ByteDance, sells. The day before, the State Department released its annual human rights review, which criticized Chinese treatment of Muslim minorities.
Once he landed, Blinken pressed Shanghai Communist Party Secretary Chen Jining on treating US companies fairly. Meanwhile, he told students at NYU’s Shanghai campus that the cultural ties being built between both countries are of utmost importance.
Despite the many possible pratfalls during the first leg, China’s response has been fairly milquetoast. Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, “We hope that the US side will respect the principle of fair competition, abide by WTO rules, and work with China to create favorable [trade] conditions.” Hardly “Wolf Warrior” stuff, and Wang said Friday that ties are “beginning to stabilize.”
Officials attend the opening ceremony for the North Korean Embassy in Tehran, Iran in this undated photo released on August 5, 2017 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang.
If North Korea and Iran hook up, will China be jealous?
Pyongyang’s Minister of External Economic Relations Yun Jong Ho became the first North Korean official to visit Iran in half a decade on Tuesday. The trip is officially about economic ties, but the US State Department said it was “incredibly concerned” about possible missile and nuclear technology cooperation.
There’s precedent: Tehran has borrowed Pyongyang’s missile designs for its own weapons and admitted to using North Korean missiles during its 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Today, North Korea has intercontinental ballistic missiles that Tehran can’t yet field.
“Given Iran's preoccupation with its strategic position, searching for increased deterrence against both Israel and the United States, the fact that it would welcome a North Korean delegation right now is significant,” said Eurasia Group Iran analyst Greg Brew. “It's also significant that this visit is taking place while Iran's national security advisor is in Moscow,” he added, noting that Russia has been the glue in ties between all three countries.
Both Iran and North Korea have shipped Moscow weapons to use in Ukraine, which Eurasia Group labeled one of its Top Risks for 2024. There’s a political benefit for North Korea on top of the aid Moscow reciprocates: attention from China. Wary of losing influence over Pyongyang, China responded to the closer Russo-Korean ties by launching its own diplomatic press, including a visit to Pyongyang from politburo member Zhao Leji this month. Pyongyang may be trying to run the same play with Tehran.
“From North Korea’s perspective, if all they have to do is bat their eyelashes at another suitor for China to roll out the diplomatic red carpet, that seems like a well they can go back to with Iran,” says Eurasia Group North Korea expert Jeremy Chan.
Xi Jinping's solution to his "Taiwan problem"
"Xi has made it clear he plans to go solve the Taiwan problem while he's still in office." That's New York Times national security correspondent and New Cold Wars author David Sanger on why China's leader is setting his sights on the slender island off its eastern coast. Xi Jinping has made no secret of his belief that Taiwan belongs to China and that it is a national security imperative to bring it under Chinese sovereignty. But it's also an American national security imperative to prevent Xi from doing so, says Sanger. That's because the small island nation still manufactures the vast majority of the critical semiconductor microchips that power our modern world in both China and the United States.
"What Biden has done here in the semiconductor field of trying to choke the Chinese of the most advanced chips, but also the equipment to make those chips while trying to build up here, is the right step." At the same time, however, the Biden administration's push to manufacture more chips in the United States may also imperil the "silicon shield" that currently protects Taiwan from its Chinese neighbor. Nevertheless, Sanger argues that it's not just an industrial imperative for the United States to become self-sufficient in this area. It's a national defense imperative one as well."For our long-term security, it is much more important to build those [semiconductor factories] fabs than it is to build those aircraft carriers."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Javier Milei, the President of Argentina, speaks at the final day of the conservative conference on February 24, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Argentina in the money, China-Libya drones plot in Canada, Recording Gaza’s casualties, Arms spending peaks
0.2: Argentina is in the black for the first time since 2008. The South American country is starting Q2 with a 0.2% fiscal surplus in quarterly revenues. President Javier Milei took a victory lap and promised to continue his fiscal austerity program, causing bond valuations to jump.
2: Two former UN employees in Montreal were charged with participating in a conspiracy to sell Chinese military equipment to Libya, including large drones capable of carrying multiple missiles. The men are accused of violating sanctions related to the Libyan civil war (2014-2020) between 2018 and 2021. One of the suspects was arrested Tuesday, but the other remains at large.
80,000: The US State Department’s annual human rights assessment found that nearly 80,000 people in Gaza have been killed or injured during the Israeli offensive, amounting to some 3% of the population.
2.4 trillion: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found that global military expenditures reached an all-time high of $2.4 trillion, a year-over-year increase of 6.8%. The United States alone made up 37% of that spending, and with China spending another 12%, the two leading military powers cumulatively spent just under half of the world’s entire military budget.
Why the US is sending aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week. A big $90 billion package that has been approved by the US House of Representatives, going through the Senate shortly after months of debate and, all of the package, all three major pieces of it, have some significant, complicated features.
First of all, the biggest piece for Ukraine, $60 billion, massive military support.
They had been in danger of losing significant more territory. This certainly shores them up. It helps the Ukrainians. It makes the Europeans panic less, but, you know, can they longer term hold on? What is the end game? The Ukrainians are, of course, running short not just of material to fight, but also air defense capabilities and, critically, people, soldiers. It's much harder for them to get people for the front lines than it is for the authoritarian, and much larger populated Russia. And so, the intention is that the Ukrainians don't fall apart, but of course, longer term, the idea that the US will continue to be able to provide 60 billion in support year after year. Certainly not true if Trump becomes president, probably not true if Biden wins a second term. What you really want to do is try to find a way to get them in a better position so that negotiations, inevitably, that need to occur with Russia, can be more productive and more constructive from the Ukrainian side, from the European side, from the NATO side. The US kick the can on this last year when the Americans, were in much better position supporting Ukraine. Now it's harder. Always is the case is that you think that things are going to get better. You don't feel like taking the political risk and as a consequence you extend and pretend. And now they're in a worse position. So I'm glad that the money came through. I'm glad the Ukrainians, are still fighting courageously and want to fight courageously. But of course, longer term, this war leads to some degree of partition where the Ukrainians are losing their land.
Israel, closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. Some 17 billion in military support for Israel, also some 9 billion in humanitarian aid in Gaza in this plan.
But, of course, increasingly, the United States does not support Israel continuing to fight against Hamas in Gaza. They want to see a lot more protection for Palestinian civilians, which the Israelis have been reluctant to put in place. They don't want to see a ground offensive into Rafah. Over a million Palestinians shelter in there. The Israelis are fully intent on continuing with that, proceeding with it. They did want to see a cease-fire that was linked directly to a hostage release. Now, increasingly, the US is talking about those two things as critical but delinked. And at the same time as the US is providing all this money, you have sanctions being placed by the United States on battalions of the Israeli Defense Forces engaged in human rights violations. This shows just how impossible this position is for President Biden to maneuver domestically, not to mention internationally. The US is overwhelmingly, the one country that is most supportive of Israel. Biden is overwhelmingly the political leader that is most supportive of Israel. But most of his constituents are not. And this is absolutely going to hurt him, even though it's a foreign policy issue and they don't usually play that heavily in recent decades in the election coming up in November. And you’ll see it, of course, across campuses all over the country, including my own at Columbia.
And then finally Taiwan. And this is in a sense the least controversial, because everyone on the Democratic and Republican side pretty much supports more support for Taiwan, is opposed to China. It's very easy to get lots of legislation that makes life more difficult for China. At the same time, though, the long term strategy of the United States is to make Taiwan less important, less important for the Americans in making sure that semiconductor production, moves from Taiwan to the United States, to other allies, not just a few miles off of the mainland Chinese coast, but also export controls that prevent the Chinese from getting advanced semiconductors from Taiwan as well. In other words, the big US strategy is not just arming the Taiwanese and helping them defend themselves, but also making Taiwan fundamentally less important to mainland China. and one of the main reasons that the Chinese would not be interested in attacking Taiwan long term or squeezing them hard economically long term, is because they're so indispensable to the Chinese economy. This is not going to be the case long term.
In all three of these areas, you've got the United States with friends, but they are less aligned with strategically than they are tactically. And that means that this money that we see going forward is all about kicking the can on short term gains that make sense politically for the US right now. But long term do not resolve the challenges that exist for the US with these countries.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Tiktok ban and foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan passes in the House ›
- Split the difference: Johnson to push separate bills for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan ›
- Europe welcomes US Ukraine package, but pushes to add even more aid ›
- How the US election will change the world ›
- Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in ›
- Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election? ›
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is received by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the State Guest House.
Hard Numbers: Germany arrests suspected spies for China, Europe heats up, Biden nods to sun to win young votes, Major floods hit China and East Africa
3: Germany has arrested three German nationals suspected of spying for China. They’re accused of passing along sensitive military intelligence to the Ministry of State Security, China’s powerful spy agency. The timing is awkward, given that Berlin is trying to reset trade relations with Beijing.
2.3: If you’ve had a summer vacation in Europe recently, you may have felt like it was unbearably hot – that’s no coincidence. Europe is the fastest-warming continent on the planet, according to a new report from two leading climate-monitoring organizations. Temperatures there are now 2.3° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, per the latest five-year averages, compared to 1.3° Celsius globally. But Europe’s not alone: The entire planet’s surface temperature is rising.
7 billion: President Joe Biden celebrated Earth Day on Monday by announcing $7 billion in federal grants for solar power projects in residential areas that will power over 900,000 households in low-income and disadvantaged communities and help save $8 billion in energy costs, according to EPA estimates. Biden is promoting his environmental policy as he vies to woo young voters – a crucial voting bloc – at a time when many in this demographic express concern over the economy and outrage over his approach to the war in Gaza.
110,000: Flooding in China’s Guangdong province caused by heavy rains has seen 110,000 people evacuated from their homes. The extreme weather led over a million people in the province to lose power over the weekend. Flooding from relentless rain has also devastated East Africa, affecting over 200,000 in Burundi, one of the world’s poorest countries.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 10, 2024.
Maldives vote moves it closer to China
On Sunday, the South Asian archipelago of the Maldives held parliamentary elections, widely viewed as a referendum on the pro-China policies of President Mohamed Muizzu. Preliminary returns have Muizzu’s People’s National Congress Party leading with 66 of 93 seats up for grabs (with 86 declared), with 73% of 284,000 eligible voters casting ballots.
India out, China in. Muizzu came to power last September on an “India Out” campaign, repudiating his country’s historical ties to New Delhi in favor of closer links with Beijing. Since then, Muizzu ordered the expulsion of Indian military personnel and awarded significant infrastructure projects to Chinese companies. Earlier this year, Muizzu traveled to China to strike a deal that boosted Chinese tourism by 200%, in the wake of a 40% drop in Indian tourism caused by derogatory remarks made by Maldivian deputy ministers about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Muizzu was considered a proxy candidate for former President Abdulla Yameen, who held power between 2013 and 2018 and whose 11-year jail term on bribery charges was overturned last week. Under Yameen, the Maldives joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. Both India and China view the Maldives as a strategic maritime hub in the Indian Ocean due to its location on major east-west international shipping routes.
FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies before the House Approbations Subcommittee on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 11, 2024.
Is China’s typhoon headed for America?
FBI Director Christopher Wray has called out a Chinese cyber threat named Volt Typhoon that is targeting US water, power, and telecommunications companies, including23 pipeline operators.
In an address at Vanderbilt University late last week,Wray warned that "Chinese government-linked hackers have burrowed into US critical infrastructure and are waiting for just the right moment to deal a devastating blow."
The goal? To induce panic and potentially deter the US from supporting Taiwan in the event of an attack on the island by China.
How might Volt Typhoon strike? "You might find your companies harassed and hacked, targeted by a web of corporate CCP proxies," Wray told world leadersearlier this year. “You might also find PRC hackers lurking in your power stations, your phone companies, and other infrastructure, poised to take them down ..."
An escalating threat. The FBI director has been warning about China’s cyber capabilities for months in speeches and in testimony before Congress, calling the Chinese Communist Party "the defining threat of our generation.” Chinese hackers, he says, outnumber FBI cyber personnel 50 to 1.
Beijing has denied state involvement in Volt Typhoon, attributing the hacking to criminal ransomware groups. However, Wray cites evidence of the operation using extensive botnets to mask its cyber trail,as well as investigations by Microsoft and Google tying the campaign to China.