We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
China's top diplomat Wang Yi speaks at a meeting with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Park Jin, in Busan, South Korea, on Nov. 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine and China talk Russia, France prepares for terrorist attempts at Olympics, New Zealand abuse scandal, Hunger expected to spike in Africa
12: Ukraine’s top diplomatmet with China’s foreign minister on Wednesday, signaling that China would like to play a more central role in finding a diplomatic end to the conflict. The talk comes after China’s previous attempt to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, a 12-point plan put forward in 2023, wasquickly dismissed by European leaders for being pro-Russia.
1,000: Ahead of Israel’s opening football match against Mali at the Olympic Games on Wednesday night, around1,000 French police officers formed an “anti-terror perimeter.” The game, along with a match between Ukraine and Iraq, have both been given the designation of high-risk because of their connections to global conflicts.
200,000: In New Zealand, an independent investigation found that more than200,000 people are estimated to have been abused by state organizations entrusted with their care. Many of the victims were children in foster care, and the abuse included sexual assault, electric shocks and chemical restraints, sterilization, starvation, and beatings.
600 million: UN officials said that levels of hunger are set to remain “shamefully” high in a report that predicts almost600 million people will be undernourished by 2030 – half of which will be in Africa, putting it on track to overtake Asia as the continent with the most hunger in the world. Hunger rates have jumped in the wake of COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and are likely to only worsen as climate change progresses.
Chinese retirement home.
Hard numbers: China raises retirement age, Cocaine found in sharks, Russia and Belarusian athletes accused of supporting Ukraine war, Deadly Ethiopian mudslides
13: In the real-life sequel to “Cocaine Bear,” 13 sharks have tested positive for cocaine off of the coast of Brazil – at a level 100 times higher than other aquatic life. Experts believe cocaine is getting into the water via illegal labs illegally manufacturing the drug, or through excrement of drug users.
17: A human rights law firm has accused the International Olympic Committee of negligence for allowing 17 Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete in the Summer Games in Paris even though the competitors have shown support for the war in Ukraine in breach of Olympic rules. Russia and Belarus have been banned from sending official teams to Paris. Still, some sports allow athletes to compete as individuals if they have passed a special IOC test of neutrality – which the law firm’s suit alleges they violated.
229: At least 229 people have died in mudslides this week following heavy rains in southwestern Ethiopia in the deadliest such disaster recorded in the Horn of Africa country. Most of the victims were rescue workers who were buried in a mudslide on Monday as they searched the steep terrain for survivors of another mudslide the previous day.A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014.
China and Philippines sign South China Sea deal
Manila announced Sunday it had reached a “provisional agreement” with Beijing aimed at establishing an arrangement in the South China Sea that both sides can live with — without renouncing territorial claims. The text of the deal has not yet been released.
The agreement builds off last week’s announcement of the establishment of presidential hotlines and signals a desire for de-escalation by both countries – following a serious clash on June 17. But the key word in this agreement is “provisional” as both Beijing and Manila are already showing irreconcilable differences in their positions.
China had previously told Manila it could not bring construction materials to the wreck of the Sierra Madre, a decrepit hulk deliberately beached on the South Thomas Shoal by Manila to give it de facto control. Without repairs, the ship will likely break apart soon. But Beijing claims Manila agreed to give China advanced notice and allowed inspections of shipments sent to the marines it keeps stationed there carrying food and supplies. A senior Filipino official told the Associated Press that the final deal did not require the Philippines to pre-notify the Chinese of shipments.
What to watch? A deal to cool temperatures in the South China Sea would be welcome news for all parties, including the US. “The next big test,” says Eurasia Group senior China analyst Jeremy Chan, “will be how both Manila and Beijing behave on future resupply missions, and whether either side can cede any ground.”
Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly speaks during a reception honouring the visit of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada October 26, 2022.
Canadian foreign minister heads to China amid tough tariff talk
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly made a surprise visit to Beijing on Thursday as Canada and the United States are both considering new barriers to trade with China.
Canada-China relations have gone from bad to terrible since 2018, when Canada held Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou for extradition to the United States and the Chinese government responded by detaining Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Wanzhou and the two Michaels were released in 2021, but a Canadian public inquiry into foreign interference continued to put a strain on relations. Then came the suspected Chinese spy balloon surveillance in US and Canadian airspace in 2023.
Still, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China was open to improving relations earlier this year.
But this week, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said she would be talking to Canadian business and labor groups about erecting new trade barriers with China. Washington sent a similar message as Joe Biden told allies on Wednesday that he is considering taking fresh action to block Chinese chip manufacturing. Meanwhile, in Milwaukee this week, Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, said China is the “biggest threat” facing the United States.
The Chinese likely want to talk to Joly about avoiding new trade barriers with Canada, since China’s economy is struggling and any new limits on exports could further slow growth. Joly will no doubt listen politely, but Canada is unlikely to jeopardize its crucial trade relationship with the United States by making any side deals with Beijing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr review the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 4, 2023
Can a hotline prevent war in South China Sea?
I know when that hotline bling, that can only mean one thing: Beijing and Manila are beefing over uninhabitable rocks again. China and the Philippines have reportedly set up a bilateral hotline meant to help them avoid a deadly incident in the disputed South China Sea.
The effort to improve communications follows a particularly violentconfrontation on June 17, when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded Filipino vessels wielding bladed weapons. One Filipino sailor lost his finger, and the fear is that should someone lose their life, Manila could activate its mutual defense treaty with the United States.
The Biden administration has struck a nuanced position, assuring Manila that it would honor the treaty fully while also attempting to signal to China that they aren’t handing out carte blanche to the Philippines. Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says proactive communication after the June 17 incident has helped lower the temperature.
“Beijing interpreted the June 28 call between Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and China's Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu in particular as a clear signal that Washington does not support Manila in pushing its territorial claims too aggressively,” he said.
Being able to quickly pick up the phone and talk through future incidents is a useful pressure release valve, but longer term, the South China Sea and the shoals used to mark de facto control will remain a tension point. We are watching how it will affect US and Chinese efforts to stabilize their own relationship.
Why Trump really wanted JD Vance as running mate
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How did JD Vance, who once called Trump “America's Hitler,” become his VP pick?
Well, of course, that isn't exactly what he said. He said that he goes back and forth between thinking that Trump is either a cynical asshole like Richard Nixon, who could actually be good for the country, or he could be America's Hitler. How come no one's actually reporting the actual quote? And it's because the media's freaking horrible is why. And because the algorithms promote stupidity and fake news, and disinformation. But the answer to the question is because Vance is really smart, very aligned with Trump. He's very, let's say, situationally ideological and wants to win, doesn't bring a lot of votes for Trump, but Trump doesn’t think he needs them. Last time around, when Trump was running and picked Mike Pence, he was looking for an establishment figure that would get him more votes and that would make Trump seem more approachable and attractive to a larger group of voters. Trump now thinks he can win the election either way, so he's picking the person he really wants. That's what's going on.
Will the EU reelect Ursula von der Leyen as president?
Almost certainly, yes. There are still questions about where exactly she's getting the votes for. She can't afford to lose a lot of people from the parties that, in principle, support her in a secret ballot. But there aren't good options for her, and everyone I talk to in positions of leadership in the EU thinks that she is a layup there.
Why did Orbán choose to visit Russia and China despite knowing it would upset EU leaders?
Well, mostly because he wants to portray himself and not just in the six-month rotating chair of the European Union, but more broadly as the person who can represent the Chinese and the Russian view, that gives him more leverage, especially if Trump becomes president. That’s why he went to Mar-a-Lago right after NATO, saying, I'm the one in the EU that knows what these people are saying. I'm the person that can connect with you. It's not like he's trying to leave the European Union. He needs their money, but he wants to position himself more strongly and as the outlier, that's the easiest way for him to do it.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Trump's pick for VP: JD Vance ›
- Who is JD Vance, Trump’s VP pick? ›
- Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit ›
- Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech ›
- Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways ›
- Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next? - GZERO Media ›
Chinese pilots deplane from a JH-7 fighter-bomber in preparation for the 9th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, known as Airshow China 2012, in Zhuhai city, south Chinas Guangdong province, 10 November 2012.
Hard Numbers: China rattles the saber, Egypt’s inflation falls, Japan props up yen, Spain wins Euros
30: Taiwan’s defense ministry recorded 30 Chinese combat jets and seven warships in the skies and waters around the islandon Saturday and said it was monitoring “waves” of missile tests in Inner Mongolia province. These are the third large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan this week.
27.5: Inflation rates in Egypt have dropped for the fourth straight month to 27.5%, down from an agonizing 38% peak in September. However, economists warn that fuel, medicine, fertilizer, and naturalgas markets remain volatile, and Egypt’s most needy families are smarting from a 300% increase in the price of subsidized bread.
22 billion: A Bloomberg analysis of the Bank of Japan’s accounts found it had likely spent approximately $22 billion propping up the anemic yen, which has lost 11% of its value this year, on Thursday. This would mark the third time the central bank has directly intervened in the currency market — an expensive practice, but Tokyo has few other options while the difference between US and Japanese interest rates remains so vast.
2-1: Spain beat England 2-1 in a thrilling final of the Euro 2024 championship on Sunday, marking their fourth time bringing home the cup. England, the country that invented modern football, has never won. In Miami, Argentina won the Copa America 1-0 against Colombia, but the event was marred by botched security that saw scenes of panic as unticketed fans rushed and overwhelmed barriers.China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China tells NATO to butt out
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine. The foreign ministry’s comments come amid increasing cooperation between NATO and US allies in the Pacific, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Washington and its allies accuse China of helping Russia skirt arms controls by shipping so-called “dual use” goods that can be applied in both civilian and military contexts. In turn, China gets access to heavily discounted Russian oil and gas — a desirable asset at any time, but advantageous for China’s economy at a moment when it appears particularly shaky.
At home, however, Beijing has signaled not to expect “strong medicine” to boost the economy at next week’s upcoming Third Party Plenum, scheduled for July 15-18 behind closed doors.
These meetings are closely watched because past leaders have used them to deliver big news. Deng Xiaoping announced the earth-shaking “Opening and Reform” policy, for example, at the 1978 session.
Xi Jinping isn’t expected to announce any major policy shifts, according to experts at Eurasia Group. So we’ll be watching for language intended to boost consumer confidence battered by the roiling debt crisis, but little by way of decisive policy.