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Hard Numbers: Slave labor gets free pass, China probes fried chicken blast, Fresh beef over origins of meat, Windfarms vs. farmlands, Record numbers at US-Canada border
0: Is Canada complying with its obligation, under the revamped NAFTA accords, to stop importing goods that are made with forced labor? A Politico report earlier this week suggested Canadian border services officials were starting to detain shipments from Western China, where Beijing is accused of using slave labor among the Uighur population. But the Globe and Mail reports that zero imports have so far been rejected. Of particular concern are exports of relatively inexpensive Chinese solar panels, which have helped businesses and homes wean themselves off fossil fuels without breaking the bank.
7: Speaking of China, authorities are probing the cause of a massive explosion on Thursday at a fried chicken restaurant near Beijing that left at least 7 people dead and 27 injured. The incident comes amid a big safety crackdown on restaurants following a fatal gas explosion at a barbecue restaurant last year. Crispy fact: Fried chicken is wildly popular in China – KFC was the first US fast food chain to open in China when the country opened up in 1978.
795,000: The US imports an average of about 795,000 head of cattle from Canada every year, but there’s a fresh beef this week over new meat labeling requirements in the US. The Biden administration on Monday issued new rules that permit sellers to label their products as “made in the USA” only when the animals were born, raised, slaughtered, and packaged within the 50 states. The Canadian meat industry says the new rules will depress Canadian exports and raise prices for American meat-lovers.
1: A study in Alberta has determined that even if renewable energy sources grew rapidly, they would still take up less than 1% of the sprawling province’s land two decades from now. The findings come amid a frothy local debate about the merits of giving precious farmland to cows, crops, or wind farms. The government recently imposed a moratorium on the use of any prime land for renewables until a consensus is reached.
7,000: Border patrol in the Swanton Sector, which touches the US states of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, arrested some 7,000 migrants trying to cross illegally into the United States last year, more than in the past 12 years combined. With so much attention on the US southern border, migrants (and human traffickers) are setting their sights up north. To put those 7,000 in perspective, in December alone, US border agents encountered 250,000 undocumented migrants entering from Mexico.Clock ticks on TikTok
The US House voted to ban Chinese-owned video-sharing app TikTok on Wednesday, sending the bill to the Senate, where it faces an uncertain fate. Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer has not committed to bringing it to a vote.
Republican and Democratic representatives — who voted 352 to 65 to pass the bill — argue that China could use TikTok’s algorithm to feed propaganda to Americans and collect intelligence about users. Intelligence experts have warned for years that Westerners should be skeptical of assurances that the company does not share intelligence with the Chinese government. TikTok says such concerns are ridiculous.
The bill would force Beijing-based ByteDance to sell the company to a buyer approved by the US government or have it removed from US phones in six months.
Biden has said he would sign the bill, but Donald Trump, who tried and failed to shut down TikTok, recently reversed himself and now opposes banning the app.
Also this week, Canada's Liberals acknowledged that they had ordered a national security review of the popular app last autumn without making it public.
Canada has not said whether it would follow Washington's lead if it is banned, but last year Ottawa banned TikTok from government devices. Tech analyst Carmi Levy told CTV that Canada would likely follow an American ban. “We can’t afford to be out of sync with them on issues of digital policy that are this important.”
In the meantime, the Canadian government says TikTok will be under "enhanced scrutiny," under the Investment Canada Act's new policy on foreign investments in digital media.
The truth behind China’s growth facade
Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced on Tuesday at the annual Two Sessions meeting that Beijing would seek to grow its economy by about 5% in 2024. China will also aim to create 12 million new urban jobs and keep inflation around 3%.
While it seems ambitious, Rick Waters, managing director for China at Eurasia Group, says Beijing will hit 5% – by hook or by crook.
“The bigger question is whether the Chinese economy will transition to sustainable drivers of lower but healthier growth,” he says. China is betting on high-tech industries, from renewable energy to electric vehicles, but these sectors will not easily replace the ailing property sector as a driver of growth or aid in the transition to a consumption-led growth model, even as Xi attempts to tighten control of both politics and the economy.
One side effect is that economic data is now becoming politically sensitive, with Beijing withholding youth unemployment numbers and censoring references to deflation.
Just this week, Beijing scrapped the annual tradition of holding a press conference with the premier at the Two Sessions – not just for 2024, but until 2027. That ends one of the only opportunities journalists had to question China’s head of government about the country’s highest-level budget and policy decisions.
“Canceling your quarterly earnings calls isn’t a formula to improve market perceptions. The reality is that market information on the world's second-biggest economy is worsening,” says Waters.
China’s Two Sessions: It’s a Xi show
On Monday, Beijing scrapped a closing press conference for its annual “Two Sessions” meeting of its rubber-stamp parliament, pausing a three-decade long annual tradition for China’s premier (the No. 2 guy). That means the foreign press will lose a rare chance to speak to Premier Li Qiang, one of China’s most powerful people.
But it also robs Li himself of a platform that other Chinese leaders have used to build their own brands. Li’s predecessor, Li Keqiang, earned himself the moniker “the people’s premier” after he railed against pervasive rural poverty during the 2020 Two Sessions presser.
The opacity reflects what Eurasia Group called "Maximum Xi” in its top risks report last year, as President Xi Jinping reacts to increasing challenges by centralizing his power even more.
"Under Maximum Xi, what Li Qiang might have said in the closing presser wouldn't matter anyway,” says Lauren Gloudeman, a China expert at Eurasia Group. “He was only going to say what was approved."
Hard Numbers: Alberta renewables ban, ‘Dirty Harry’ smuggler arrested, Three Amigos at risk, China keeps digging into Canadian mines
0: New regulations from the Alberta government will permitzero new renewable energy projects to be built on private property that has high value for irrigation, specialty crops, or other farming importance, as well as areas where projects would interfere with “pristine viewscapes.” Alberta, which leads Canada in renewables development, has drawn nearly $5 billion into the sector in recent years, stoking concerns about the balance of farmland vs. alternative energy.
25,000: A man has been arrested in Chicago and charged with human trafficking in connection with the death of an Indian family of four that froze to death while trying to cross illegally from Canada into the US in 2022. The 28-year old man, nicknamed “Dirty Harry,” is accused of paying $25,000 to the driver who smuggled the family. With so much attention on the migration situation at the US southern border, the number of migrants seeking to enter the US from Canada has soared in recent years.
2: The so-called “Three Amigos Summit” could wind up with only two amigos this year, after Mexican President Andrés Manual Lopez Obradorthreatened to ditch the North American Leaders meeting. AMLO, as the left-populist leader is known, said that he wouldn’t show up unless his country got “respectful treatment.” The remark comes as AMLO’s administration blasts possible new US and Canadian tariffs on Mexican steel, but it probably doesn’t help that last week it emerged that the US had spent “years” investigating ties between AMLO and drug cartels.
2.2 billion: Tighter restrictions on Chinese investment in Canada’s critical minerals industry appear not to have had much deterrent effect, according to a new study which shows that Chinese firms plowed at least C$2.2 billion into the sector last year. That came even after Ottawa forced three Chinese companies to sell their stakes in Canadian businesses in 2022. Copper miners were a particular focus, according to the report.
America’s first data security executive order ... underwhelms
President Joe Biden issued an executive order last week targeting entities that affect every web user, whether they realize it or not. The order empowers the Justice Department to stop companies called data brokers from collecting and selling Americans’ personal data to “countries of concern” like China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba.
What data brokers do: Compile massive amounts of sensitive user data (browsing history, biometric scans, geolocation) and sell it to advertisers. One study showed that Facebook took in personal data on a single user from 48,000 companies, a reflection of how the social media giant attempts to track down every detail of a potential consumer’s lifestyle and habits.
Why that’s dangerous: As AI improves, bad actors’ ability to sift through vast amounts of this data to track and pry into the personal lives of Americans — including service members and government officials — will also improve. The Biden administration is hoping to prevent “intrusive surveillance, scams, blackmail, and other violations of privacy.”
What’s missing: Concrete regulations, like Europe’s GDPR framework that requires explicit documentation on how all EU citizens' data is used and stored. Instead, the executive order empowers bureaucrats to start a complex and months long rule making process. We'll only know details about how the executive order will be enforced afterward.
When it comes to data, Americans are still living in the Wild Wild West. While this order aims to prevent privacy violations from some of America’s adversaries, there’s nothing stopping other countries, companies, and the federal government itself from doing the exact same thing.US aid for Israel & Ukraine hangs in the balance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the House pass the Senate-approved aid package for Ukraine and Israel?
Well, certainly not if the Freedom Caucus and the Speaker of the House have anything to say about it. So, I mean, as of today, what the Senate has passed with a lot of Republicans on board looks dead in the House. But of course, the ability to jam the House and force them to accept something or there's no government funding, that is a game of chicken that we've seen before and the Senate may well continue to be ready to play. So it is not dead yet, but aid is looking challenging. And let's be clear, irrespective of what happens for 2024, it's going to be very hard to get any more aid for the Ukrainians going forward. And everybody is deeply aware of that reality.
How likely will Israel proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah in Gaza?
Well, keep in mind, this is right on the border with Egypt. The Egyptians have said that this will blow up their peace agreement with Israel if they decide to go into that space full on with a ground invasion. There's already been some incursions, including one that freed two hostages held by Hamas. So clearly that has huge support from the Israeli population as a whole. The Biden administration has publicly said that they don't want to see a ground invasion, especially because there are no circumstances, at least not set up yet, that the Palestinians who continue to be forced to move and move and move will be safe in this environment. I think that we are very close to a temporary cease fire and more hostages being released. So part of this is pressure from Israel to get that done. If you made me bet right now, I'd say we actually see the deal first. But that is not going to end eventual hostilities from ticking back up between the Israelis and Hamas in Gaza.
What are the wider implications for the Indonesia presidential election?
More state influence over key industries in the economy. Probably a little bit more willingness to blow out the budget from a fiscal perspective. But the likely winner, Prabowo, his vice presidential running mate, is the son of Jokowi, the president of Indonesia. And that implies first geopolitically, very similar orientation to have balanced relations between China economically but the US strategically. I don't see that changing at all. There is still a big question about whether they're going to move the capital. This has been a massive effort with a lot of money that is at play and it's not clear that Prabowo is as convinced that that needs to be the legacy as Jokowi has been. That'll be worth watching very carefully when he becomes president, for those that care. I do, hope you do, too.
- Stalled deal on US border security leaves Ukraine in the lurch ›
- Poll: American support for Ukraine aid is falling ›
- Hard Numbers: March shows solidarity for Israel, US Army overturns convictions of Black soldiers, US inflation cools, EU falls short on artillery shells for Ukraine, House passes funding bill ›
- Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine ›
- US aid for Israel: How much and since when? ›
HARD NUMBERS: New cholera epidemic emerges, House impeaches Mayorkas, US inflation disappoints, Global military spending soars, Oil spill “blackens” Caribbean coastline
4,000: The worst outbreak of cholera in a decade has already claimed at least 4,000 lives in half a dozen countries of central and southern Africa. Experts say the resurgence of the waterborne illness is due to wetter weather, vaccine shortages, and underinvestment in water and sewage infrastructure.
214: The US House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, 214-213, on charges that he has “willfully” refused to enforce border laws and breached public trust. This marks an escalation of Republican efforts to attack President Joe Biden and Democrats over immigration.
3.1: In the latest round of the monthly “did inflation ease more/less than we thought?” sweepstakes, the US came up short, posting annual consumer price growth of 3.1% in January, two-tenths of a point higher than expected. The data suggests the US Fed will chill a bit longer before cutting key interest rates, which currently sit between 5.25% and 5.5% as a result of a two-year-long campaign to tame inflation.
9: A nine-mile stretch of coastline in Trinidad and Tobago is “blackened,” the government says, following an oil spill by an unknown vessel last week. The origin and type of the boat, which ran aground and flipped over off the southwest coast of Tobago, is still unknown, and the situation is “not under control.” The disaster comes as the Caribbean nation prepares for its world-famous carnival, a major tourist draw.
2.2 trillion: There’s hardly a business like the arming business, it seems — global defense spending jumped 9% last year to a record high of $2.2 trillion, according to a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The Ukraine war and NATO’s increased defense spending are a big part of the story, but with China growing more assertive and the Middle East embroiled in fresh conflict, the report warns that we are entering a global “era of insecurity.”