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Ian Bremmer: Russia, China and other factors are driving geopolitical recession
In a Global Stage livestream discussion from the 79th UN General Assembly, Ian Bremmer explained the concept of a "geopolitical recession," a term he uses to describe the growing disconnect between global power dynamics and existing international frameworks.
Bremmer identified three main factors driving this shift: First, Russia, which remains at odds with the core principles of the UN, was not fully integrated into the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Second, while China was successfully brought into global structures, it has maintained its authoritarian, state-capitalist model, causing discomfort, particularly in the West. Lastly, citizens in advanced democracies, especially the US, feel their leaders have neglected their needs, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.
These factors, Bremmer argues, are fueling global instability and dissatisfaction, contributing to what he calls a "geopolitical recession."
Bremmer spoke during GZERO’s Global Stage livestream, “Live from the United Nations: Securing our Digital Future,” an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft.
A person takes photos of the waves as Typhoon Krathon approaches in Kaohsiung, Taiwan October 2, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Taiwan prepares for treacherous Typhoon, Benin crushes alleged coup attempt, Vietnamese sailors injured in South China Sea clash, Old US bomb makes a bang in Japan
2: At least two people are dead in Taiwan, and 70 injured, from weather attributed to Typhoon Krathon, which is expected to make landfall on the densely populated west coast of the Island on Thursday. Thousands have been evacuated from areas at risk of floods or landslides. One elderly man fell off a ladder while pruning a tree near his house in preparation for the storm, and another crashed into fallen rocks while driving. Western Taiwan is usually sheltered from major storms by its east coast mountain ranges and Taipei has put 40,000 troops on standby for expected rescue operations.
2: Two high-profile Beninese political figures were arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of plotting a coup against President Patrice Talon, allegedly having attempted to bribe the head of the Republican Guard. Benin is one of the most stable democracies in West Africa — even the communist dictatorship that ruled 1975-1990 handed over power peacefully — and was not previously believed to be at risk of extralegal regime change.
40: Vietnamese media reported Wednesday that some Vietnamese fishermen were severely injured in a clash near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea after around 40 foreign sailors boarded their vessels and beat the crews with iron bats on Sunday. The hull numbers of the alleged aggressors correspond with local Chinese maritime patrols, and Beijing confirmed an operation against Vietnamese fishermen near the Paracels but denied Hanoi’s version of events.
80: A long-forgotten US bomb dating back to World War II buried deep beneath a taxiway at Japan’s Miyazaki Airport suddenly exploded on Wednesday, causing a large crater and the cancellation of at least 80 flights. No one was harmed, thankfully, though hundreds of unexploded US bombs remain buried in Japan and are sometimes dug up during construction projects.
Japan’s new PM: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will there be political fallout in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene?
Lots of fallout for the lives and livelihoods of the people of the Carolinas and elsewhere, but the biggest damage is in both rural areas that largely vote "red" and urban areas that largely vote "blue." And frankly, that's a wash. Horrible morbid pun there, but the reality, I don't think it's going to be much impact come November.
What were the big takeaways from President Xi's speech celebrating the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China?
Well, first of all, very interesting. He didn't mention trade war, didn't mention the United States or other potential adversaries on the economic, technological military front by name. Did mention Taiwan, talked about the need to end the separatists and reunify, but nothing new there compared to other statements that he and other leaders have made. I would say the most important thing he talked about are the expectations of serious challenges going forward for the Chinese people. This is coming from a leader who is starting to move towards stimulus as opposed to just sort of incremental responses to economic challenges. A recognition that if they want to hit anywhere close to the 5% plus growth they want, they're going to need to do a lot from the fiscal side as the government. But he's messaging that this is going to be a hard time and it's structural. It's not a matter of a few months, it's a matter of years. And especially with the politics around the world and in the United States not working so well for China right now, that's a message that I think was more for domestic consumption than for international.
Finally, as Japan's new Prime Minister assembles his government, how will he set himself apart from former PM, Kishida?
Well, he's not a "pro-Abenomics" guy. This is someone that I think is going to be challenging from a market perspective. He's going to be fiscally very cautious. He's going to look to raise more revenue, and he's not really loved by the business community. It was the fifth time he tried to become Prime Minister, the former Minister of Defense. Fifth time's the charm apparently in the LDP. I'm not so concerned about potential changes on the international front. He's talked about an "Asian NATO" which is kind of a non-starter from the perspective of the United States. He does want joint control of bases in Okinawa,. That's changed the status quo. But ultimately, if the US pushes back, he'll accept that. The interesting thing about Japan is it's basically a single-party democracy. The Liberal Democratic Party really runs the show. They have an absolute majority in the Diet. They're likely to continue that after snap elections coming up real soon. And so it's really a question of which of the various factions inside that party who largely agree on worldview and on domestic policies ends up running the government. And this time around it is the former Minister of Defense.
- Hard Numbers: Helene hits hard, Zuckerberg enters the big leagues, US strikes Islamic State in Syria, Majority of Argentines live in poverty ›
- Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat ›
- Viewpoint: How Abe still casts a shadow over Kishida in Japan ›
- Viewpoint: Kishida makes way for fresh face as his party's fortunes fade in Japan ›
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers a speech during United Nations Security Council at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, United Sates of America on September 24, 2024.
Zelensky snubs China’s peace push, Trump vows to end war “very quickly”
Switzerland’s foreign ministry expressed support for the peace plan China and Brazil are pushing to end Russia’s war in Ukraine on Sunday, but it’s a non-starter for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said he “cannot understand the logic of Switzerland’s decision.”The plan would require Ukraine and Russia to begin negotiations in an international peace conference without any guarantee of Ukraine retaining its territorial integrity.
After the plan was pitched at the UN General Assembly on Friday, Zelensky said that proposing “alternatives, half-hearted settlement plans, so-called sets of principles” would only allow Moscow to continue waging war. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was equally dismissive of Beijing’s efforts,commenting that “China is allowing its companies to take actions that are actually helping Putin continue the aggression.”
Meanwhile, at Trump Tower…
Zelensky also met with Republican presidential contender Donald Trump on Friday, hoping to shore up his support amid weakening resolve from key Republicans. Trump promised to settle the war "very quickly" if elected in November, claiming a good relationship with both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.Zelensky described the meeting as “very productive,” stating on X: “We share the common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must prevail.”FILE PHOTO: Shigeru Ishiba, the newly elected leader of Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holds a press conference after the LDP leadership election, in Tokyo, Japan September 27, 2024.
Is Japan ready for a populist PM?
Japan’s new prime minister-elect is no conventional politician by Tokyo standards. Shigeru Ishiba, 67, has sought the top job five times during his 40-year political career, but his candor was unappreciated by colleagues. After a slew of scandals and resignations, however, the Liberal Democratic Party desperately needed change, and Ishiba’s no-nonsense approach and pledge to clean up the party won the day in Friday’s runoff election.
Described as a “plainspoken populist,” Ishiba’s blunt style put him on the outs with former PM Shinzo Abe,and he was reportedly hated by former PM Taro Aso. Ishiba also openly criticized outgoing PM Fumio Kishida, a no-no in Japan’s conservative political culture. Some of Ishiba’s policy positions, such as agreeing that women should inherit the imperial thrones — were highly controversial and opposed by many in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, including his chief female rival, Sanae Takaichi, whom Ishiba defeated last week.
What’s next?
Ishiba faces serious challenges at home and abroad. Japan’s middle class is struggling with stagnant wages, a weak yen, and soaring food prices. Hefavors maintaining loose fiscal policy, combined with targeted spending to boost wages and to support households struggling with inflation. Hehas also pledged “large-scale regional development” to revitalize Japan’s depopulating countryside by attracting innovators and entrepreneurs.
On foreign policy, Ishiba also walks to the beat of his own drum. He has proposed an Asian version of NATO and favors Japan developing its own nuclear deterrent, both of which go further than what Washington considers practical. Ishiba’s tough defense stance includes building up a more independent capability, and he has called for revising the two countries’ 1960 security agreement on US military bases, arguing it feels outdated and reminiscent of post-war occupation.
Ian Explains: Will China invade Taiwan?
President Xi Jinping has made it clear he wants to bring Taiwan under Chinese control. But how would he actually send troops to the island? And after watching Russia get bogged down in two years of grinding war in Ukraine, has his calculus changed? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer lays out Xi’s strategies for achieving his primary political goal: reunification with Taiwan.
Overall, the chances of an all-out Chinese invasion are slim to none. It would be a huge political and military risk for China, and its economy can’t afford the hit of global sanctions. Beijing is also deeply dependent on Taiwan for its technology infrastructure: Taiwan’s TSMC manufactures more than half of the world’s computer chips that power things like phones and electric cars. But Taiwan’s economy is also dependent on China, its largest trading partner. So Xi could still apply plenty of pressure without sending a single troop to the island. Will Xi try to solve his “Taiwan problem” before he leaves office?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US
Technology is rapidly changing how modern wars are being fought, and the United States needs to reevaluate its national security priorities to adapt. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the transformation of war, China’s calculus in Taiwan, and the biggest threats facing the US, both inside the border and abroad. Stavridis warns China is still intent on pursuing its expansionist goals and territorial claims in the South China Sea. He also thinks President Xi Jinping may be looking at Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion, as well as the global reaction to it, and wondering whether military action in Taiwan is in China’s best interest. Stavridis predicts a “new triad” of warfare–unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and cyber special forces–will lead armies around the world to shift their focus from personnel and artillery to unmanned systems and AI. While it will lead to reduced costs for traditional militaries, it’s also empowering terrorist groups and malefactors in an increasingly high-stakes game of asymmetrical warfare. Stavridis’ newest book, The Restless Wave, is out October 8.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
A worker is assembling auto parts on a production line at the Li Auto Manufacturing base in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, China, on March 27, 2024.
Canada in lockstep on Chinese auto software
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freelandannounced Tuesday that Canada may ban Chinese-made software in vehicles, following a similar plan from the US government.
Canada recently announced a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, along with 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel. China has announced it will challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization, where it could succeed. A security-based ban on software would potentially represent a surer way of closing the door on Chinese electric vehicles, which threaten to overwhelm North American manufacturers.
Governments in both Canada and the United States have sunk tens of billions into tax credits, rebates, and subsidies for EV manufacturers, but China, which has had a huge head start, looks able to outcompete the North Americans unless they are prevented by trade barriers.
The announcement by Freeland is another sign that those trade barriers are likely to be imposed in unison, since the Canadians want to be in lockstep to ensure continued access to the enormously important US market. The protectionist measures will slow the electrification of North America passenger vehicles, but leaders in both countries seem to have decided that it is politically impossible to surrender their markets to China.