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Will Iran’s regime survive?

What’s next for Iran’s regime? Ian Bremmer says, “It’s much more likely that the supreme leader ends up out, but the military… continues to run the country.” Despite global speculation, real change will depend on the Iranian people, not foreign intervention, says Ian.

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A satellite image shows the Natanz nuclear facility after an airstrike in Iran, on June 14, 2025.

Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS

What the world thinks of the Israel-Iran conflict

The Israel-Iran conflict continues to rage on: US President Donald Trump called for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” on Tuesday, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out surrendering Wednesday morning. Iran is also considering bombing US bases.

Much of the world’s focus is, understandably, on what the United States will do next (for more, see here) – but there are other major powers with a big stake in this conflict too. Here’s a roundup of their views on the rapidly escalating conflict.

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Kiribati's President and Foreign Minister Taneti Maamau meet after the Third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Xiamen, China, on May 28, 2025.

Tian Yuhao/China News Service/VCG via Reuters Connect

Beijing’s Island Breeze: China makes a play for power in the Pacific

Last week, something highly unusual was spotted off the coast of Japan. In an unprecedented show of naval power, two Chinese aircraft carriers were seen cruising together near the country’s easternmost islands of Minamitori and Okinotori—far out into the Pacific Ocean.

The carrier groups conducted drills alongside one another for the first time in Pacific waters, accompanied by jets, helicopters, and supporting warships.

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Memorial outside the Minnesota State Capitol in honor of Democratic state assemblywoman Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, after a gunman killed them, in St. Paul, Minnesota, U.S., June 15, 2025.

REUTERS/Tim Evans

What We’re Watching: Minnesota assassin suspect captured, New Zealand weighs its superpower alliances

Suspect captured in killings of Minnesota legislators

Minnesota’s massive manhunt ended Sunday with the arrest of 57-year-old Vance Boelter, accused of killing State Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, and injuring State Sen. John Hoffman and his wife. Disguised with a rubber mask and fake badge, Boelter posed as a police officer to enter the Hoffmans’ home, and a list in his car revealed 70 other targets – ranging from politicians to Planned Parenthood centers. State governor Tim Walz said the killings were “politically motivated” but the specifics of Boelter’s beliefs and motivations remain under investigation.

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Graphic Truth: G7 vs BRICS, who has more economic clout?

The G7 countries – the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan – will convene this weekend in Kananaskis, a rural town in the mountains of Alberta, Canada. High on the meeting’s agenda are tariffs, artificial intelligence, and international security, with special focus on Russian sanctions and Israel’s recent attacks on Iran.

While the G7 was originally formed as an informal grouping of the world’s wealthiest democracies, the BRICS – composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – have sought to challenge their dominance of the global agenda.

Here’s a look at how the share of the global economy held by G7 and BRICS nations has evolved over time.

A gas station in Düsseldorf, Germany, on June 10, 2025.

IMAGO/Michael Gstettenbauer via Reuters Connect

HARD NUMBERS: Oil prices spike, China stops drinking, BTS eyes reunion, and more…

12%: Oil prices spiked 12% in early trading on Friday following Israel’s attacks on Iran, reflecting fears that a wider Middle East conflict could restrict access to crude exports. Later in the morning prices softened slightly, but were still up nearly 9%, to more than $75 per barrel.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a discussion on the subject of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024.

REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

What We’re Watching: Bibi on the brink, US-China truce, Elon-Trump detente

Will Israel’s government be dissolved?

The warning signs are flashing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Knesset prepares to vote later today on whether to dissolve his government. The crisis was triggered when a pair of ultra-Orthodox parties in Bibi’s coalition signaled last week they would ditch the coalition over plans to end certain military exemptions. For more on what the collapse of Netanyahu’s government could mean, see here.

US and China reach tariff ceasefire

The United States and China reportedly agreed to a trade truce Wednesday, with US President Donald Trump saying Chinese imports will now face a 55% tariff while Beijing keeps a 10% levy on US products. Importantly, China has restarted its exports of high-tech magnets and rare earth minerals, and the White House reaffirmed Chinese students’ access to US colleges. Still, details of any larger deal covering broader issues of market access and technological competition are far from being ironed out.

Musk v Trump: Is it too late now to say sorry?

Elon Musk appears to be tapping out in his highly-public feud with US President Donald Trump, posting on X (early) this morning that he “regrets” the insults he’s hurled at the president.We’ll be watching to see if the detente holds between these two famously volatile figures. With midterms on the horizon, it matters: Musk’s financial firepower is significant, as we saw here.

For more:Ian Bremmersat down with Semafor Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith to discuss the Musk-Trump beef and what it tells us about political power in America today.

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Can Taiwan defend itself from Chinese invasion?

Can Taiwan defend itself from a Chinese invasion? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at CSIS, to break down Beijing’s increasingly aggressive military maneuvers around the island and what it means for Taipei’s future. Since Taiwan’s pro-independence president William Lai took office in 2024, China has stepped up both the frequency and scale of its military operations, with daily air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone.

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