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File photo - Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at National League at the Democracy (NLD) headquarters, address journalists and supporters in Yangon, Myanmar on April 2, 2012.
Hard numbers: Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest, Hugh Grant settles Sun case, Russian death toll in Ukraine, Boeing whistleblowers testify
3,000: Myanmar’s detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, 78, has been moved from prison to house arrest in a bid to protect her health amid severely hot weather. The junta also granted amnesty for more than3,000 prisoners to mark this week’s traditional Thingyan New Year holiday.
66 million:Hugh Grant says he has settled a high court claim against the publisher of TheSun newspaper, News Group Newspapers, for“an enormous sum of money.” Grant accused the paper of phone hacking, unlawful information-gathering, landline tapping, bugging his phone, and burgling his flat and office. His case was meant to go to trial alongside Prince Harry and other high-profile individuals next year. NGN, which has rejected any wrongdoing, said of the settlement with Grant that it was "in both parties' financial interests not to progress to a costly trial.” Last year, The Sun paid £66 million to victims of its illegal information-gathering.
50,000: Over50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the Ukraine conflict, with the death toll in the second year of fighting nearly 25% higher than the first, according to the BBC. BBC Russian, Mediazona, and volunteers focused on open-source information and new graves to conduct the count, and the total is eight times higher than Russia's official figures.
98.7: Multiple whistleblowers testified before a US Senate panel on Wednesday, alleging widespread manufacturing and safety issues within Boeing, as Congress and regulators try to hold Boeing accountable following a mid-air blowout on a 737 MAX 9 jet in January that reignited safety concerns. The whistleblowers alleged that the company failed 98.7% of the time to fill tiny gaps between components in the aircraft's fuselages, which could eventually cause fatigue failure. Boeing said that while it has taken “important steps to foster a safety culture that empowers and encourages all employees to raise their voice,” it knows there is “more work to do.”
Protesters hold up a portrait of Aung San Suu Kyi and raise three-finger salutes
Myanmar’s 200 years of troubles
On March 5, 1824, the British governor-general of India, Lord Amherst, declared war on the Burmese empire. The ensuing Anglo-Burmese Wars marked the end of a golden age for what is now Myanmar – and laid the early roots of its present troubles 200 years later.
A rising power. While Myanmar finds itself weak and geopolitically isolated today, it was then a dominant force in Southeast Asia. The Konbaung dynasty had risen from simple village chiefs to conquer the Irrawaddy valley and surrounding highlands, fended off four invasions from Qing China, and fought a bitter series of wars against their Thai archrivals.
By the 19th century, the kings in Ava had turned their eyes westward, taking Manipur and Assam (both in modern India) – and threatening the British base of power in Bengal. In 1823, Burmese troops began skirmishing with British forces along their undefined border.
Costly hesitation. After Amherst’s declaration, 10,000 Burmese troops routed the forces defending Cox’s Bazar in what is now Bangladesh and were expected to march to the capital of Calcutta. But fearing overextension, they declined to advance – a fatal error.
Holding back allowed British forces to regroup and launch a naval invasion of Burma. The Burmese resisted for two years, killing 15,000 British troops and causing an economic crisis in India. But they could not hold out forever and gave up territory and a massive indemnity for peace. The British then helped themselves to the rest of the country in two short wars in 1852 and 1885.
Exploitation and revolution. The British disrupted Burmese society. Indians and Brits formed the administrative core, pushing out Burmese elites, while major landowners imported Indian labor to exploit the fertile soil for rice exports, undermining ordinary farmers. British missionaries spread Christianity, particularly among the ethnic groups in the highlands, disrupting the millennia-old Theravada Buddhist order.
During World War II, the Japanese were only too happy to exploit deep Burmese resentment. They backed a puppet regime of Burmese nationalist revolutionaries, including a young communist named Aung San. But when it became clear that Japan would lose, Aung San shrewdly switched sides and fought for the British, who didn’t dare suppress the popular leader after the war.
His efforts to unite the country seemed promising, and he managed to sign an agreement with all the highland minorities to form a multiethnic, democratic Union of Burma in February 1947, but he was assassinated just five months later, throwing the country into chaos.
Within a year, ethnic militias — many trained and armed by the Allies — were in open conflict with the central government, which has never ceased. To make matters worse, in 1950, Chinese nationalist troops fleeing Mao Zedong’s People’s Liberation Army crossed into northern Burma, where they turned to the heroin trade for support and flooded the highlands with drugs and weapons. In 1962, the military seized power and has remained in a dominant political role since.
Today, the ethnic conflict overlaps with the civil war that broke out after the 2021 military coup overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi (Aung San’s daughter), whose triumph in the 2015 elections seemed to promise better days ahead.FILE PHOTO: Rebel Bamar People's Liberation Army soldiers in full armor marching. April 15, 2023.
Myanmar’s democratic rebels set terms for talks. Will the Junta engage?
An alliance of fighters loyal to the former democratic government and ethnic minority militias has opened the door to talks with the junta in Myanmar over building a civilian-led federal government. The plan comes just ahead of the three-year anniversary of the coup against Aung San Suu Kyi and her brief democratic experiment, and follows three months of successful rebel offensives to take key border crossings to India, China, and Thailand.
What’s the plan? The so-called National Unity Government and its partners outlined six principles they hold to be nonnegotiable. In brief, the military must leave politics and subordinate itself to civilian control, a new constitution representing all stakeholders must be written, and a process of transitional justice must be set up to reconcile the grieving nation.
If the junta agrees, the NUG says it will negotiate “with the responsible leadership of the Myanmar military to terminate military rule and for peaceful transition of power.” If not, it will keep pressing the junta politically and militarily.
Will it work? The military didn’t immediately jump at the opportunity for talks, instead extending an official state of emergency by six months and delaying promised elections again. It’s not unexpected: Even if they struggle to control the border regions now, the feared Tatmadaw forces outgun and outnumber the NUG and any individual ethnic militia.
What’s more, militias from the Three Brotherhood Alliance that did the lion’s share of the fighting to seize those border regions didn’t sign on to NUG’s statement. If the best rebel fighters aren’t aligned on the peace plan, the junta may feel little compulsion to consider it seriously.
That said, officials in foreign capitals have worried that a collapse of the military regime could lead to the collapse of the state and exacerbate violence. Laying out a peace plan publicly – in English as well as Burmese – could be aimed as much at enticing political support overseas as domestically.
Law enforcement surround the Mississippi State Capitol
Hard Numbers: Bomb threats rattle state capitols, Egypt expands new desert metropolis, Myanmar junta springs prisoners, poll shows popular Jan. 6th conspiracy theory, “Bladerunner” walks out of jail
28: For several years now Egypt has been building a slick new capital city on a swathe of desert land 28 miles east of teeming, chaotic Cairo. Now officials plan to double the size of the undertaking. Supporters say the government needs a modern seat of power, and a new city to help absorb some of Egypt’s fast-growing population. Critics say it’s just a Neo-Pharaonic boondoggle that’s busting the country’s fragile finances and enriching President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s cronies.
9,652: Myanmar’s military government announced it will release 9,652 prisoners, including 114 foreigners, in an attempt to salvage foreign relations that have suffered since it seized power in a 2021 coup. Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, however, remains in prison, where she is serving a 27-year sentence for corruption that the United Nations regards as bogus.
25: Polling shows that 25 percent of Americans believe it is “definitely or probably true” that the FBI was behind the Jan 6th riot at the US Capitol. Supporters of Donald Trump are overrepresented among the group that believes this. The investigation into Jan 6th is ongoing, with 1,240 people connected to the attacks arrested so far. Trump has promised to pardon those who have been sentenced if he is re-elected later this year.
11: Throwback alert! Remember Oscar Pistorius, the South African paralympic superstar with carbon fiber legs who dazzled the world at the 2012 Games before he was convicted of killing his girlfriend by shooting her through a bathroom door? “Bladerunner”, as he was known, is getting out of jail on Friday, after serving 11 years for the killing.
Volunteer members of Karenni insurgent forces walk in Moe Bye in Kayah State, Myanmar November 12, 2023.
A rebel alliance makes Myanmar’s junta sweat
Yesterday marked one month since the start of Operation 1027, a joint offensive by the Three Brotherhood Alliance ethnic minority rebels in Myanmar that has pushed junta forces out of key border crossings with China. They’ve made common cause against the military junta that took over in 2021 with the People’s Defense Forces, paramilitaries organized by members of the former democratic government — but they face a tough fight to overthrow the regime.
The offensive has left about 40% of Myanmar’s access to China under rebel control and halted hundreds of millions of dollars in trade across the frontier. Their successes have spurred other ethnic paramilitaries to attack, with offensives making ground in the states of Shan and Kayah in eastern Myanmar, and Rakhine in the West. The People’s Defense Forces have also disrupted military control in Sagaing and Magwe, pitting fighters from the ethnic majority Bamar against the military they have traditionally supported.
What will it take to topple the junta? Despite recent successes, the junta’s forces still outgun the rebels and enjoy complete air superiority. Taking the big cities would likely require more military might than the rebels can muster.
And there’s the question of Beijing, which cautiously re-engaged with the junta last year after the coup strained ties. The Three Brothers Alliance is trying to earn goodwill by specifically targeting centers run by organized crime syndicates that often essentially enslave Chinese citizens to run phone scams, which Beijing had urged the junta to crack down upon.
Finally, while the People’s Defense Forces and Three Brothers Alliance are cooperating for now, their long-term interests are not wholly aligned. Myanmar’s ethnic minority militias have fought for autonomy from the central government for decades, and it won’t be easy to persuade them they’ll be better off supporting some sort of return to power of the former democratic government, even if they do manage to jointly kick out the junta.A general view of damage due to volcanic activity at a golf course, in Grindavik, Iceland Nov. 11, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Iceland's eruption alert, Scott's campaign ends, Myanmar junta's challenge, Japan's evacuation drill, Aussie's Tuvalu deal, Djibouti's first satellite
12: All eyes are on Iceland as the island nation braces for a volcanic eruption on a 12-mile stretch of the Reykjanes Peninsula. The town of Grindavik, population 3,000, has been evacuated after hundreds of earthquakes rattled the country within 48 hours and amid fears that it could be completely obliterated.
7: Sen. Tim Scott on Sunday suspended his campaign for the presidency just four days after the latest presidential debate in Miami and amid reported fundraising woes. Scott's departure leaves 7 contenders vying for the Republican presidential nomination.
50,000: A Myanmar fighter jet crashed Saturday near the country’s border with Thailand during fighting between military forces and the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, who claimed responsibility for downing the plane. The ruling junta, installed after a 2021 coup, says the jet crashed due to a technical problem. The military is battling rebels on numerous fronts, including in Shan State on the border with China, where 50,000 people have fled since an anti-junta offensive was launched last month by three ethnic minority insurgent groups.
200: Japan held a tsunami evacuation drill on Yonaguni, its westernmost island, which sits just 68 miles from Taiwan. In anticipation of that country’s presidential elections in January and amid fears of Chinese aggression, Tokyo twinned the exercise with a drill to help residents respond to any attempt by Beijing to take control of Taiwan. About 200 Yonaguni officials and members of Japan's Self-Defense Force took part in the exercise.
280: Under a new treaty called the Falepili Union, Australia will grant 280 visas per year to residents of the low-lying island nation of Tuvalu, which is at risk from rising seas thanks to the effects of climate change. It marks the first time Australia has offered residency to foreign nationals based on this threat. The treaty also commits Australia to defend Tuvalu from military aggression and obliges Tuvalu to forgo other defense pacts unless it obtains Australia’s prior approval.
1A: In collaboration with engineers at the French Centre Spatial Universitaire de Montpellier, the African Republic of Djibouti launched its first satellite this weekend from the Vandenberg Space Force Base. Djibouti 1A will collect national, real-time data from climatological and seismic stations, including temperature, rainfall, river depth, and hydrometry, to help boost agricultural production and monitor environmental changes.
FILE PHOTO: Voting booths are set up at the Shawnee County Elections Office
Hard Numbers: The world gets set to vote, Myanmar rebels make gains, Uganda nabs terror boss, Israel’s Cabinet tangles over West Bank taxes, Jury convicts SBF
40: If you love to “get out the vote,” then next year is your time to shine. No fewer than 40 different countries, representing more than 40% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP, will go to the polls in 2024. Some of the standout elections include those in Taiwan, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, possibly Ukraine, the European Parliament, and the United States.
4: Myanmar’s military junta has lost control of four towns along the Chinese border, including a key trade hub, as ethnic militias in the area ramp up their insurgency against the government. Beijing on Thursday called for a cease-fire in the conflict, which the UN fears has displaced thousands of people.
6: Ugandan forces say they’ve captured the leader of an Islamic State-linked insurgent militia in a raid earlier this week that killed six of his henchmen. The commander is accused of murdering two foreign tourists and their guide in a national park several weeks ago.
30: After a heated Israeli cabinet debate about whether to release tax revenue that it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, the government agreed late Thursday to transfer the funds -- but there's a catch. At least 30% of the money, a portion destined for bureaucrats in the Gaza Strip who are still on the PA payroll, will be withheld. The decision was a compromise between hardliners who wanted to withhold the funds entirely because the PA hasn't explicitly condemned Hamas and pragmatists who thought it unwise to further weaken the PA at a time of rising West Bank unrest.
7: On Thursday, a New York federal jury found crypto exchange FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of stealing billions of dollars from customers, convicting him of all seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. He now awaits sentencing -- set for March 28, 2024 -- and faces up to 115 years in prison.
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich stands behind a glass wall of an enclosure for defendants before a court hearing
Hard Numbers: Gershkovich to remain in Russian prison, Myanmar refugee camp airstrike, Micheal Jordan pumpkin breaks records, fall of the Argentine peso
9: Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter detained by Russian authorities earlier this year, lost his appeal on Tuesday and will remain in a Russian prison until at least Nov. 30. At that point, he will have spent 9 months behind bars for allegations of espionage. Espionage trials in Russia can be lengthy, and the country’s Foreign Ministry says it will not consider a prisoner swap until after a verdict is reached.
29: In Myanmar, an artillery strike on a refugee camp near the Chinese border killed 29 people. Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war since a military coup in 2021, but several ethnic insurgents, including the Kachin Independence Organization – which controlled the area where the strike occurred – have been fighting for self-rule for decades.
2,749: A new record has been set for the world's largest pumpkin. Named Michael Jordan because it resembled a basketball early on, the large orange squash weighed in at a whopping 2,749 pounds. It was planted in April by a horticultural teacher in Minnesota, who put $15,000 into the pumpkin’s care to win himself $30,000 in prize money.
17: Javier Milei, the frontrunner in Argentina’s election race who seeks to dollarize Argentina’s economy, continued his attacks on the peso this week, discouraging Argentinians from holding any investments in the currency. As a result, the peso has fallen 17% since Monday, further driving up prices amid the country’s worst financial crisis in two decades.