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A view of the city of Tehran, Iran, amid pollution.
Hard Numbers: Tehran’s pollution closes schools, Social media swing vote, Militia controls Myanmar-Bangladesh border, Signs of Assad-era torture, Big boost for Ukraine
10 million: Officials in Tehran, a city of more than 10 million people, closed elementary schools and kindergartens on Saturday and Sunday because of dangerous levels of air pollution. On Tuesday, they announced the closure of all governmental offices, universities, and schools on Wednesday and Thursday. Schools will move classes online. In Iran, schools are generally open from Saturday to Wednesday.
45: A new survey found that 45% of “Swing voters” in the US presidential election reported getting most of their news from social media. Just 39% cited local news as their primary source of information, and 38% cited broadcast news.
168: A militia fighting on behalf of the Buddhist Rakhine minority group has driven Myanmar’s army out of its last outpost along the country’s 168-mile border with Bangladesh. This rebel group now claims control of the northern part of Rakhine state, where locals have pushed for independence.
40: The HTS rebels who now control Syria’s government say their search of a hospital morgue has discovered 40 bodies that show signs of torture by former dictator Bashar Assad’s security forces. Human rights groups say more than 100,000 people have disappeared since Assad ordered the 2011 crackdown on protests that ignited the country’s civil war.
20 billion: The US confirmed that it has sent $20 billion to Ukraine from seized Russian assets as part of a $50 billion G7 package to make Russia “bear the costs of its illegal war, instead of taxpayers," in the words of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The US Treasury transferred the $20 billion to a World Bank fund; money handled by the World Bank cannot be used for military purposes. Instead, it is intended to be used for hospitals and emergency services. The move comes weeks before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has said he would cut aid to Ukraine.
FILE PHOTO: At a secret jungle camp in Myanmar's eastern Karen state, a fitness coach and other civilians are training with armed ethnic guerrillas to fight back against the country's military takeover.
Myanmar junta calls for peace talks with minority militias — not pro-democracy fighters
After a year of rebel victories that have left Myanmar’s ruling junta on the defensive, its chairman, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, invited ethnic minority armies to peace talks in a state television broadcast on Tuesday. The junta's invitation likely aims to divide these groups from pro-democracy fighters from the ethnic Burmese majority.
About half of Myanmar’s 21 armed ethnic militias signed onto a cease-fire agreement between 2015 and 2018 during a period of democratic reform, but heavy hitters like the United Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Army stayed in the fight, and former signatories have since returned to combat.
Divide and conquer? Myanmar has experienced civil war since 1948, but the military has historically maintained control of the fertile and densely populated lowlands, even while minorities resisted in the hills and mountains. Only when ethnic Burmese rose up with the backing of the Buddhist clergy in 1988 and 2007 did the generals cede some political power.
But after the military toppled the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, her supporters formed the so-called National Unity Government and set up armed People’s Defense Forces. They’re believed to have up to 100,000 fighters, and the PDF has cooperated with allies from the highlands to wrest approximately 86% of Myanmar’s townships from junta control, including major border crossings.
So far, none of the major militias seem eager to take part, but we’re watching what measures of autonomy the junta might offer them to achieve a cease-fire — and to free up resources to crush the PDF.
FILE PHOTO: Myanmar's army chief General Min Aung Hlaing inspects troops during a parade to mark the 67th anniversary of Armed Forces Day in Myanmar's capital Naypyitaw March 27, 2012. The event commemorates the Burmese army's rising up against Japanese occupiers in 1945.
Myanmar launches census that rebels say will be used against them
On Tuesday, Myanmar’s ruling junta officially launched a census aimed at creating election rolls for a promised vote next year, but the armed opposition tied to the former democratic government of Aung San Suu Kyi, known as the National Unity Government, is urging citizens to comply with caution. They allege the military is using the census to collect information on the whereabouts of potential political dissidents as well as create lists of men eligible for military conscription.
The survey seems virtually impossible to complete accurately. The junta set a deadline of Oct.15 for most of the country but says it will wait until December for areas with intense fighting. They’ve hired just 42,000 employees to process over 56 million people, usually going door-to-door, when over half the country is under the control of hostile militias. If the junta creates voter rolls without a reliable census, it would delegitimize the election but may allow the military to retain power with a veneer of popular mandate.
The junta is hoping to change the dynamic of the war, which has shifted against them over the last year. Ethnic militias have united to seize border areas crucial for trade, and urban rebel groups are bringing violence into the junta’s core areas. A day before the census began, two bombs in the commercial capital Yangon injured 11 people in administrative offices. A guerilla organization known as Mission K claimed responsibility and specifically said it was over the census. We are watching whether the survey attracts more violence.Refugees from the Myanmar civil war near the Thailand-Myanmar border in June 2024.
Hard Numbers: Escalating war crimes in Myanmar, UN climate pact ignores fossil fuels, Waves of people leave New Zealand, Mpox spreads in Africa, US approves big arms deal for Israel
900: UN investigators in a new report on Tuesday warned that the Myanmar military is committing war crimes at an “alarming rate” as a devastating civil war continues to consume the country. The report, based on information collected from over 900 sources, says that thousands have been arrested and many have been “tortured or killed in detention.”
77: Dozens of former world leaders and Nobel Prize winners — 77 in total — signed an open letter protesting the exclusion of any mention of fossil fuels in the draft of a UN Climate Pact. “The extraction and burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of the climate crisis,” the letter states.
131,200: People are leaving New Zealand in droves, according to new government stats. Between June 2023 and June 2024, 131,200 people left the country – roughly a third went to Australia. This comes as New Zealand faces an array of economic problems, including high interest rates and rising unemployment.
15,000: The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday declared an outbreak of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has spread to other countries, a “public health emergency of continental security.” Over 15,000 mpox cases and 461 deaths have been reported in Africa so far this year. Overall, 18 countries have reported cases. The Africa CDC says it needs 10 million doses of the vaccine to deal with the outbreak, yet currently only has 200,000 and plans to secure more.
20 billion: The US has approved $20 billion in arms sales to Israel, the State Department said Tuesday, including dozens of F-15 fighter jets, tactical vehicles, and advanced air-to-air missiles. But it could be years before Israel gets many of the weapons, as the package is designed to increase the Jewish state’s long-term security capabilities, and it takes time to fulfill sales of this size. The announcement of the massive arms deal comes less than a week before the beginning of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which is expected to be met with protests over US support for Israel amid the war in Gaza.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken shakes hands with Chinese Communist Party's foreign policy chief Wang Yi during their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, Thursday, July 13, 2023.
Top diplomats meet in Laos to discuss Myanmar & South China Sea
On Thursday, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Vientiane, Laos, to kick off a three-day summit focused on resolving Myanmar’s violent civil war and cooling tensions in the South China Sea. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are also attending – each with their own interests in mind.
In Myanmar, ASEAN nations have failed to make progress toward their “five-point consensus” unveiled in April 2021, two months after a military coup. Since then, the country has spiraled into a humanitarian crisis – with over 3 million displaced and more than 5,400 Burmese killed. ASEAN’s plan seeks an immediate cessation of violence, which has largely been ignored by junta leaders, calling into question the efficacy of the bloc amid fears of regional spillover.
This week’s talks hope to revive the much-criticized plan but are likely to face significant obstacles as competing geopolitical interests leave countries – including the US and China – supporting opposing factions.
On the South China Sea sovereignty issue, ASEAN is hoping to capitalize off the progress made on Sunday’s deal between China and the Philippines and to finalize a similar agreement of their own – a protracted code of conduct including China. Still, pessimism looms over how much these nations can achieve to ease these protracted issues in the region.
Joseph Nyuma Boakai, Liberia's Vice President and presidential candidate of the Unity Party (UP), speaks during a campaign rally in Monrovia, Liberia December 24, 2017.
Hard Numbers: Liberian president cuts his own pay, Myanmar civilian deaths reach record pace, STDs surge among seniors, “Jewelrygate” in Brazil
40: Amid a rising cost-of-living crisis in his country, Liberian President Joseph Boakai, who took office in January, has slashed his own salary by 40%. The gesture of solidarity, which echoes a similar move by his predecessor, will bring his yearly pay down to $8,000. Liberia’s GDP per capita is about $800 a year, among the lowest of any country in the world.
359: Airstrikes by Myanmar’s military junta killed at least 359 civilians between January and April, putting the regime on pace to kill more noncombatants in 2024 than in the previous three years combined. In the three years since it took power in a coup, the junta has been waging war against a patchwork of regional and ethnic militias. The US has tried to sanction the sale of jet fuel to the Myanmar regime, but China and Vietnam have skirted those efforts. For the historical background, see here.
24: Grandma! Grandpa! What are you DOING in there??!! During the pandemic, diagnoses of sexually transmitted diseases among US senior citizens jumped by nearly 24%, new data show. That’s the highest of any age group. And to think, staying inside was supposed to “stop the spread”? (OK, we’ll just stop there.)
1.2 million: Federal police in Brazil say a crime group with links to right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro tried to illegally sell $1.2 million worth of jewels, watches, and other luxury gifts from foreign leaders. The cash was allegedly funneled into accounts controlled by Bolsonaro and his family. The populist Bolsonaro, a one-time political outsider, won the 2018 election in part by promising to tackle Brazil’s rampant corruption, but watchdogs say he was part of the problem.
Myanmar military troops take part in a military exercise at Ayeyarwaddy delta region in Myanmar, February 3, 2018.
Myanmar’s military moves into Rakhine villages
Myanmar’s military has begun expelling residents from villages surrounding Rakhine’s state capital Sittwe in response to threats from the rebel Arakan Army. The junta is reportedly moving into these villages, planting landmines, and bombing roads that lead into the city to inhibit the AA’s advances as it takes an increasingly defensive stance in its three-year-old civil war. The military has also been accused of murdering 76 people and burning down villages on the outskirts of Sittwe, allegations it denies.
Rakhine is home to the overwhelmingly Buddhist country’s largest Muslim population, which has been subjected to ethnic cleansing in recent years, and the state has once again become a hotbed for escalating ethno-religious violence. The AA, a largely Buddhist rebel group, launched a major offensive seven months ago and has allied itself with other ethnic militias nationwide. They’ve made great advances, capturing nine of the 17 Rakhine townships.
What we’re watching: Will the military be able to hold on against the AA? The capture of Sittwe would be a devastating loss for the junta – it would be the first state capital to come under rebel control, representing a major morale victory for the embattled rebels.
The military seems scared of the prospect.They’ve recently been entering refugee camps across the Bangladesh border to forcefully recruit Rohingya Muslims, a group they once massacred, in a desperate bid to augment their bruised military.Vice-Senior General Soe Win takes part in a military parade to mark the 74th Armed Forces Day in the capital Naypyitaw, Myanmar March 27, 2019.
Myanmar junta leader MIA as rebels make gains
Deputy Prime Minister Gen. Soe Win has not been seen in public since April 3, with unconfirmed reports alleging he was injured in a drone attack — or purged from leadership. Either explanation for his long absence comes down to the same root cause: six months of rebel victories and, as of April, daring air strikes on junta strongholds.
The rebel offensive: Starting in October, a loose coalition of ethnic minority militias backed by the People’s Democratic Forces (supporters of the overthrown democratic government) launched offensives that have seized almost all of Myanmar’s frontiers with India, China, and Thailand. With trade routes cut off, the junta is feeling pressure on its military supply chains and key sources of revenue.
Will the military fall? It’s hard to imagine. They may be on the back foot, but the feared Tatmadaw has a $2.7 billion budget while some rebels are building their own artisanal firearms (talk about scrappiness).
That said, the recent rebel drone strikes on the capital and other key junta sites reportedly caused tension among the cabinet (and possibly left Soe Win incommunicado). If it is true that the rebels are chipping away at the regime’s internal cohesion, that may be their most consequential victory yet.