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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken shakes hands with Chinese Communist Party's foreign policy chief Wang Yi during their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, Thursday, July 13, 2023.
Top diplomats meet in Laos to discuss Myanmar & South China Sea
On Thursday, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Vientiane, Laos, to kick off a three-day summit focused on resolving Myanmar’s violent civil war and cooling tensions in the South China Sea. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are also attending – each with their own interests in mind.
In Myanmar, ASEAN nations have failed to make progress toward their “five-point consensus” unveiled in April 2021, two months after a military coup. Since then, the country has spiraled into a humanitarian crisis – with over 3 million displaced and more than 5,400 Burmese killed. ASEAN’s plan seeks an immediate cessation of violence, which has largely been ignored by junta leaders, calling into question the efficacy of the bloc amid fears of regional spillover.
This week’s talks hope to revive the much-criticized plan but are likely to face significant obstacles as competing geopolitical interests leave countries – including the US and China – supporting opposing factions.
On the South China Sea sovereignty issue, ASEAN is hoping to capitalize off the progress made on Sunday’s deal between China and the Philippines and to finalize a similar agreement of their own – a protracted code of conduct including China. Still, pessimism looms over how much these nations can achieve to ease these protracted issues in the region.
Joseph Nyuma Boakai, Liberia's Vice President and presidential candidate of the Unity Party (UP), speaks during a campaign rally in Monrovia, Liberia December 24, 2017.
Hard Numbers: Liberian president cuts his own pay, Myanmar civilian deaths reach record pace, STDs surge among seniors, “Jewelrygate” in Brazil
40: Amid a rising cost-of-living crisis in his country, Liberian President Joseph Boakai, who took office in January, has slashed his own salary by 40%. The gesture of solidarity, which echoes a similar move by his predecessor, will bring his yearly pay down to $8,000. Liberia’s GDP per capita is about $800 a year, among the lowest of any country in the world.
359: Airstrikes by Myanmar’s military junta killed at least 359 civilians between January and April, putting the regime on pace to kill more noncombatants in 2024 than in the previous three years combined. In the three years since it took power in a coup, the junta has been waging war against a patchwork of regional and ethnic militias. The US has tried to sanction the sale of jet fuel to the Myanmar regime, but China and Vietnam have skirted those efforts. For the historical background, see here.
24: Grandma! Grandpa! What are you DOING in there??!! During the pandemic, diagnoses of sexually transmitted diseases among US senior citizens jumped by nearly 24%, new data show. That’s the highest of any age group. And to think, staying inside was supposed to “stop the spread”? (OK, we’ll just stop there.)
1.2 million: Federal police in Brazil say a crime group with links to right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro tried to illegally sell $1.2 million worth of jewels, watches, and other luxury gifts from foreign leaders. The cash was allegedly funneled into accounts controlled by Bolsonaro and his family. The populist Bolsonaro, a one-time political outsider, won the 2018 election in part by promising to tackle Brazil’s rampant corruption, but watchdogs say he was part of the problem.
Myanmar military troops take part in a military exercise at Ayeyarwaddy delta region in Myanmar, February 3, 2018.
Myanmar’s military moves into Rakhine villages
Myanmar’s military has begun expelling residents from villages surrounding Rakhine’s state capital Sittwe in response to threats from the rebel Arakan Army. The junta is reportedly moving into these villages, planting landmines, and bombing roads that lead into the city to inhibit the AA’s advances as it takes an increasingly defensive stance in its three-year-old civil war. The military has also been accused of murdering 76 people and burning down villages on the outskirts of Sittwe, allegations it denies.
Rakhine is home to the overwhelmingly Buddhist country’s largest Muslim population, which has been subjected to ethnic cleansing in recent years, and the state has once again become a hotbed for escalating ethno-religious violence. The AA, a largely Buddhist rebel group, launched a major offensive seven months ago and has allied itself with other ethnic militias nationwide. They’ve made great advances, capturing nine of the 17 Rakhine townships.
What we’re watching: Will the military be able to hold on against the AA? The capture of Sittwe would be a devastating loss for the junta – it would be the first state capital to come under rebel control, representing a major morale victory for the embattled rebels.
The military seems scared of the prospect.They’ve recently been entering refugee camps across the Bangladesh border to forcefully recruit Rohingya Muslims, a group they once massacred, in a desperate bid to augment their bruised military.Vice-Senior General Soe Win takes part in a military parade to mark the 74th Armed Forces Day in the capital Naypyitaw, Myanmar March 27, 2019.
Myanmar junta leader MIA as rebels make gains
Deputy Prime Minister Gen. Soe Win has not been seen in public since April 3, with unconfirmed reports alleging he was injured in a drone attack — or purged from leadership. Either explanation for his long absence comes down to the same root cause: six months of rebel victories and, as of April, daring air strikes on junta strongholds.
The rebel offensive: Starting in October, a loose coalition of ethnic minority militias backed by the People’s Democratic Forces (supporters of the overthrown democratic government) launched offensives that have seized almost all of Myanmar’s frontiers with India, China, and Thailand. With trade routes cut off, the junta is feeling pressure on its military supply chains and key sources of revenue.
Will the military fall? It’s hard to imagine. They may be on the back foot, but the feared Tatmadaw has a $2.7 billion budget while some rebels are building their own artisanal firearms (talk about scrappiness).
That said, the recent rebel drone strikes on the capital and other key junta sites reportedly caused tension among the cabinet (and possibly left Soe Win incommunicado). If it is true that the rebels are chipping away at the regime’s internal cohesion, that may be their most consequential victory yet.File photo - Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at National League at the Democracy (NLD) headquarters, address journalists and supporters in Yangon, Myanmar on April 2, 2012.
Hard numbers: Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest, Hugh Grant settles Sun case, Russian death toll in Ukraine, Boeing whistleblowers testify
3,000: Myanmar’s detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, 78, has been moved from prison to house arrest in a bid to protect her health amid severely hot weather. The junta also granted amnesty for more than3,000 prisoners to mark this week’s traditional Thingyan New Year holiday.
66 million:Hugh Grant says he has settled a high court claim against the publisher of TheSun newspaper, News Group Newspapers, for“an enormous sum of money.” Grant accused the paper of phone hacking, unlawful information-gathering, landline tapping, bugging his phone, and burgling his flat and office. His case was meant to go to trial alongside Prince Harry and other high-profile individuals next year. NGN, which has rejected any wrongdoing, said of the settlement with Grant that it was "in both parties' financial interests not to progress to a costly trial.” Last year, The Sun paid £66 million to victims of its illegal information-gathering.
50,000: Over50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the Ukraine conflict, with the death toll in the second year of fighting nearly 25% higher than the first, according to the BBC. BBC Russian, Mediazona, and volunteers focused on open-source information and new graves to conduct the count, and the total is eight times higher than Russia's official figures.
98.7: Multiple whistleblowers testified before a US Senate panel on Wednesday, alleging widespread manufacturing and safety issues within Boeing, as Congress and regulators try to hold Boeing accountable following a mid-air blowout on a 737 MAX 9 jet in January that reignited safety concerns. The whistleblowers alleged that the company failed 98.7% of the time to fill tiny gaps between components in the aircraft's fuselages, which could eventually cause fatigue failure. Boeing said that while it has taken “important steps to foster a safety culture that empowers and encourages all employees to raise their voice,” it knows there is “more work to do.”
Protesters hold up a portrait of Aung San Suu Kyi and raise three-finger salutes
Myanmar’s 200 years of troubles
On March 5, 1824, the British governor-general of India, Lord Amherst, declared war on the Burmese empire. The ensuing Anglo-Burmese Wars marked the end of a golden age for what is now Myanmar – and laid the early roots of its present troubles 200 years later.
A rising power. While Myanmar finds itself weak and geopolitically isolated today, it was then a dominant force in Southeast Asia. The Konbaung dynasty had risen from simple village chiefs to conquer the Irrawaddy valley and surrounding highlands, fended off four invasions from Qing China, and fought a bitter series of wars against their Thai archrivals.
By the 19th century, the kings in Ava had turned their eyes westward, taking Manipur and Assam (both in modern India) – and threatening the British base of power in Bengal. In 1823, Burmese troops began skirmishing with British forces along their undefined border.
Costly hesitation. After Amherst’s declaration, 10,000 Burmese troops routed the forces defending Cox’s Bazar in what is now Bangladesh and were expected to march to the capital of Calcutta. But fearing overextension, they declined to advance – a fatal error.
Holding back allowed British forces to regroup and launch a naval invasion of Burma. The Burmese resisted for two years, killing 15,000 British troops and causing an economic crisis in India. But they could not hold out forever and gave up territory and a massive indemnity for peace. The British then helped themselves to the rest of the country in two short wars in 1852 and 1885.
Exploitation and revolution. The British disrupted Burmese society. Indians and Brits formed the administrative core, pushing out Burmese elites, while major landowners imported Indian labor to exploit the fertile soil for rice exports, undermining ordinary farmers. British missionaries spread Christianity, particularly among the ethnic groups in the highlands, disrupting the millennia-old Theravada Buddhist order.
During World War II, the Japanese were only too happy to exploit deep Burmese resentment. They backed a puppet regime of Burmese nationalist revolutionaries, including a young communist named Aung San. But when it became clear that Japan would lose, Aung San shrewdly switched sides and fought for the British, who didn’t dare suppress the popular leader after the war.
His efforts to unite the country seemed promising, and he managed to sign an agreement with all the highland minorities to form a multiethnic, democratic Union of Burma in February 1947, but he was assassinated just five months later, throwing the country into chaos.
Within a year, ethnic militias — many trained and armed by the Allies — were in open conflict with the central government, which has never ceased. To make matters worse, in 1950, Chinese nationalist troops fleeing Mao Zedong’s People’s Liberation Army crossed into northern Burma, where they turned to the heroin trade for support and flooded the highlands with drugs and weapons. In 1962, the military seized power and has remained in a dominant political role since.
Today, the ethnic conflict overlaps with the civil war that broke out after the 2021 military coup overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi (Aung San’s daughter), whose triumph in the 2015 elections seemed to promise better days ahead.FILE PHOTO: Rebel Bamar People's Liberation Army soldiers in full armor marching. April 15, 2023.
Myanmar’s democratic rebels set terms for talks. Will the Junta engage?
An alliance of fighters loyal to the former democratic government and ethnic minority militias has opened the door to talks with the junta in Myanmar over building a civilian-led federal government. The plan comes just ahead of the three-year anniversary of the coup against Aung San Suu Kyi and her brief democratic experiment, and follows three months of successful rebel offensives to take key border crossings to India, China, and Thailand.
What’s the plan? The so-called National Unity Government and its partners outlined six principles they hold to be nonnegotiable. In brief, the military must leave politics and subordinate itself to civilian control, a new constitution representing all stakeholders must be written, and a process of transitional justice must be set up to reconcile the grieving nation.
If the junta agrees, the NUG says it will negotiate “with the responsible leadership of the Myanmar military to terminate military rule and for peaceful transition of power.” If not, it will keep pressing the junta politically and militarily.
Will it work? The military didn’t immediately jump at the opportunity for talks, instead extending an official state of emergency by six months and delaying promised elections again. It’s not unexpected: Even if they struggle to control the border regions now, the feared Tatmadaw forces outgun and outnumber the NUG and any individual ethnic militia.
What’s more, militias from the Three Brotherhood Alliance that did the lion’s share of the fighting to seize those border regions didn’t sign on to NUG’s statement. If the best rebel fighters aren’t aligned on the peace plan, the junta may feel little compulsion to consider it seriously.
That said, officials in foreign capitals have worried that a collapse of the military regime could lead to the collapse of the state and exacerbate violence. Laying out a peace plan publicly – in English as well as Burmese – could be aimed as much at enticing political support overseas as domestically.
Law enforcement surround the Mississippi State Capitol
Hard Numbers: Bomb threats rattle state capitols, Egypt expands new desert metropolis, Myanmar junta springs prisoners, poll shows popular Jan. 6th conspiracy theory, “Bladerunner” walks out of jail
28: For several years now Egypt has been building a slick new capital city on a swathe of desert land 28 miles east of teeming, chaotic Cairo. Now officials plan to double the size of the undertaking. Supporters say the government needs a modern seat of power, and a new city to help absorb some of Egypt’s fast-growing population. Critics say it’s just a Neo-Pharaonic boondoggle that’s busting the country’s fragile finances and enriching President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s cronies.
9,652: Myanmar’s military government announced it will release 9,652 prisoners, including 114 foreigners, in an attempt to salvage foreign relations that have suffered since it seized power in a 2021 coup. Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, however, remains in prison, where she is serving a 27-year sentence for corruption that the United Nations regards as bogus.
25: Polling shows that 25 percent of Americans believe it is “definitely or probably true” that the FBI was behind the Jan 6th riot at the US Capitol. Supporters of Donald Trump are overrepresented among the group that believes this. The investigation into Jan 6th is ongoing, with 1,240 people connected to the attacks arrested so far. Trump has promised to pardon those who have been sentenced if he is re-elected later this year.
11: Throwback alert! Remember Oscar Pistorius, the South African paralympic superstar with carbon fiber legs who dazzled the world at the 2012 Games before he was convicted of killing his girlfriend by shooting her through a bathroom door? “Bladerunner”, as he was known, is getting out of jail on Friday, after serving 11 years for the killing.