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FILE PHOTO: Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a signing ceremony for an addendum to the works on the Transnordestina railway, at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil November 28, 2024.
Brazil’s Lula goes under the knife. Is he healthy enough to run again?
On Tuesday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva underwent a successful craniotomy in Sao Paolo after complaining of a severe headache. The 79-year-old leader was diagnosed with an intracranial hemorrhage — basically, bleeding in the brain — linked to a fall he suffered in October. He is said to be recovering well and is expected to be able to return to work next week — but the health scare is opening questions about his political future.
Can Lula keep a healthy image? On the campaign trail, he often joked that he had the energy of a 30-year-old, but his vitality will now loom large in public discourse. Running Latin America’s largest country is a stressful, 24/7 job, and with elections looming in 2026, the politicos in Brasilia may start hearing echoes of Joe Biden.
Lula’s approval ratings are considerably higher than Biden’s were during the US campaign — Bloomberg has him at 47% approval — but in the anti-establishment environment that has dominated elections in 2024, the old warhorse might do better out to pasture. That said, most presidents don’t get elected without a healthy ego, and no one expects Lula to see himself out.
Who could step in? If Lula should experience further health problems that lead him to step down before the end of his term, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin would be his constitutional successor, but not a member of Lula's party or popular with his base. Longer term, we’re watching Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, a close ally of Lula’s who is rumored to be the president’s favorite for a running mate in 2026.Police reinforcements patrol before the UEFA Nations League football match between France and Israel at the Stade de France stadium in Saint-Denis, north of Paris, on Nov. 14, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Soccer security à Paris, Deadly Brazil court blast, OECD sees migration uptick, Illegal miners targeted, Velvet Revolution anniversary, Alex Jones vs. The Onion
5,600: France deployed 5,600 police officers and security guards to manage the risk of violence at a soccer match between France and Israel in Paris on Thursday. Pro-Palestinian protests were held nearby, and only minor scuffles were reported from within the stadium, where the match ended in a draw. The police ramp-up was a law enforcement response to violent attacks on Israeli fans last week in Amsterdam.
98: On Wednesday, a man blew himself up in an attempt to attack Brazil's Supreme Court. A former failed candidate for local office, the man had stood for ex-President Jair Bolsonaro’s political party in 2020 and received just 98 votes. The public square near the Supreme Court was also hit by violent protests by Bolsonaro supporters after their candidate lost the last presidential election. A Bolsonaro spokesman responded to the news on X: “There are crazy people everywhere.”
6.5: About6.5 million people moved legally to the 38 OECD countries in 2023 – a sizable jump from the previous record of 6 million who moved to these countries in 2022.
4,000: South Africa’s government has threatened to “smoke out” about 4,000 illegal miners who are reportedly inside an abandoned mine searching for gold in the country’s North West province.
35: On Sunday, Czechs and Slovaks will mark the 35th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution, which ended the 41-year rule of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia.
$3.5 million: A judge temporarily halted the sale of InfoWars to The Onion after the satirical outlet on Thursday said it had won a bankruptcy auction to acquire the website founded by Alex Jones, a well-known conspiracy theorist. The judge moved to put a hold on the sale until a hearing next week after complaints from Jones and a company linked to him that put in a $3.5 million bid for InfoWars.
A member of the cleaning crew walks past a G20 Summit sign outside the Museum of Modern Art, the venue of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2024.
Viewpoint: G20 leaders grapple with global inequality in Trump's shadow
Amid geopolitical tensions fanned by wars in Europe and the Middle East and Donald Trump’s reelection in the US, world heads of state will gather in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 Leaders’ Summit from Nov. 18-19. They will discuss proposals to combat global inequality and climate change and try to agree on a common position toward the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza in a carefully worded closing statement. Following the summit, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host China’s Xi Jinping on a state visit in Brasilia, where the two will announce a series of partnerships in trade and investment.
We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomson to learn more about this year’s G20 Summit.
What items would you highlight on the agenda?
Brazil, which holds the G20’s rotating presidency this year, tried to keep divisive geopolitical issues out of the subject matter meetings held in preparation for the summit, allowing for the approval of communiques with policy recommendations on a wide range of issues. I think those related to global inequality, a priority issue for the Brazilian presidency, are likely to get the most attention when the heads of state meet. There are two main proposals: the creation of a new tax on the super-wealthy and the new launch of a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.
There is not much consensus yet about the tax – what the rate would be, how it would be levied – but the Brazilian presidency considers it a victory to have gotten the issue on the agenda and thinks the proposal can be fleshed out in the coming years. With the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, Brazil aims to export ideas such as the Bolsa Familia program of cash transfers that have been successful at reducing hunger in Brazil. Thirty-one countries have already signed on to the initiative and another 27 have asked to join.
What impact will Trump’s election have on the summit?
The impact will be greatest on the discussion of climate and sustainability policies, another one of Brazil’s priority areas. Brazil and other emerging market countries have been pressing for assistance in financing climate change mitigation efforts from the wealthy industrialized countries that bear more responsibility for the carbon emissions causing global warming. That already fraught conversation will become much more difficult with Trump, a noted climate skeptic, poised to assume the presidency of the world’s largest economy and second-largest carbon emitter next year. I understand that Lula has been updating his planned speech at the summit to reflect this reality. A silver lining for Brazil is that South Africa, another leading global south country, will assume the G20 presidency next year, so the work done this year on this issue will likely continue.
What do you expect G20 leaders to say about the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza?
Drafting the final communique, which will have to mention these issues, will obviously present some challenges. There are stark divisions among G20 members about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. So, the most likely outcome is some vague language about the desirability of peace, as in previous years.
Outside of the G20 agenda, what else do you expect from this gathering of world leaders?
Lula will meet with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines, though Biden’s lame-duck status limits the potential for important outcomes from their conversation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be at the summit, which creates the opportunity to advance the discussions on a trade pact between the EU and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, which is expected to be finalized in the coming months. But there will be much more focus on Xi Jinping’s follow-up state visit to Brasilia. Chinese officials are expected to announce a slew of investments in sectors of the Brazilian economy ranging from satellites to logistics and infrastructure. Xi will be arriving in Brazil after a stop in Peru to attend the APEC Leaders’ Summit and the inauguration of the Chancay port, which is majority-owned by a Chinese company. There are plans to link this Pacific Ocean-facing port to Brazil to open up a lower-cost trade route to China.
So, it sounds like Lula is expecting some good outcomes. Will that help him politically?
There was more optimism at the beginning of the year, when Lula and his team did not foresee a Trump victory and there was this idea that geopolitical conflicts could have eased by now. Still, Brazil sees hosting the G20 as good for its foreign policy agenda, offering the opportunity to dialogue with the world’s main economies. Brazil sees itself as a non-aligned country striving to maintain good relations with the US, China, and Europe.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Graphic Truth: BRICS economies eclipse the G7
In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.
Five years later, reality imitated art when the countries decided to begin meeting regularly at “BRIC summits,” with the latest occurring in Kazan, Russia, this week. The subsequent inclusion of South Africa upgraded the “s” to a capital letter: the BRICS.
The group, which lacks formal treaties or binding obligations, has always been united more by what it opposes — US dominance of global financial systems — than by what it supports.
After all, it’s a hodgepodge: energy exporters (Brazil and Russia) and importers (China and India), democracies (India and Brazil) and non-democracies (China and Russia), allies (Russia ❤️China) and adversaries (India x China).
But the economic clout of the group is, on paper, formidable. With the addition of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates this year, the BRICS+ economies account for 36% of global GDP – while the G7 group of wealthy democracies amount to just 29%. But, of course, there’s a catch: China and the US each contribute more than half of their respective group’s GDP.
Here’s a look at the economic size, and breakdown, of the BRICS+ and the G7 group it hopes one day to eclipse — not only economically but also geopolitically.
FILE PHOTO: The X account of Elon Musk in seen blocked on a mobile screen in this illustration after Brazil's telecommunications regulator suspended access to Elon Musk's X social network in the country to comply with an order from a judge who has been locked in a months-long feud with the billionaire investor, Sao Paulo, Brazil taken August 31, 2024.
Hard Numbers: X marks the spot in Brazil again, China stocks plummet on stimulus worries, Cameroon insists on presidential signs of life, Hungary embraces the olive
5: X was officially reinstated in Brazil, ending a five week ban of the social media platform, which had failed to comply with court orders to remove accounts that were spreading disinformation. X owner Elon Musk had initially defied the orders and refused to pay related fines, styling himself as a defender of free speech. In the end, Musk and X caved as the ban had caused Brazil’s 40 million X users to start using other sites instead.
7: Mainland China’s benchmark stock index plummeted 7% on Tuesday, in the largest single day drop since February 2020, a time when COVID was first spreading rapidly in the country. Analysts suggested the drop, which snapped a 10-day streak of gains, reflected fading optimism that the Chinese government’s current stimulus policies will be enough to perk up a sluggish economy.
31: He is not dead. Repeat. Not dead. That’s the official word from the Cameroonian government about 91-year old president, Paul Biya, who has not been seen in public in 32 days. Biya, who has held power since 1982, was last spotted leaving a China-Africa summit in Beijing on Sept. 8. Since then, he has missed a number of high profile events, including the entire UN General Assembly in New York.
12.35: Hungary is known for the delicacy of its goulash, the harmonies of Franz Liszt, and the architectural beauties of Budapest. But olive oil? Too chilly right? Not any more. Hungarian farmers are increasingly planting olive trees as climate change shifts the temperate zones of Europe northward and inflicts more frequent droughts on traditional Mediterranean olive habitats like Spain. A mere tenth of a liter of the stuff from Hungary now fetches $12.35 in neighboring Slovenia.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers a speech during United Nations Security Council at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, United Sates of America on September 24, 2024.
Zelensky snubs China’s peace push, Trump vows to end war “very quickly”
Switzerland’s foreign ministry expressed support for the peace plan China and Brazil are pushing to end Russia’s war in Ukraine on Sunday, but it’s a non-starter for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said he “cannot understand the logic of Switzerland’s decision.”The plan would require Ukraine and Russia to begin negotiations in an international peace conference without any guarantee of Ukraine retaining its territorial integrity.
After the plan was pitched at the UN General Assembly on Friday, Zelensky said that proposing “alternatives, half-hearted settlement plans, so-called sets of principles” would only allow Moscow to continue waging war. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was equally dismissive of Beijing’s efforts,commenting that “China is allowing its companies to take actions that are actually helping Putin continue the aggression.”
Meanwhile, at Trump Tower…
Zelensky also met with Republican presidential contender Donald Trump on Friday, hoping to shore up his support amid weakening resolve from key Republicans. Trump promised to settle the war "very quickly" if elected in November, claiming a good relationship with both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.Zelensky described the meeting as “very productive,” stating on X: “We share the common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must prevail.”The Telegram logo.
Telegram and X back down
Score this one Nation-States 2, Tech Tycoons 0?
Pavel Durov, the CEO of the messaging app Telegram who was arrested recently in France on charges that his platform facilitated criminal activity and was refusing to help law enforcement investigate, has changed his tune.
After initially claiming it was “absurd” to hold a platform responsible for illicit content, Telegram now says it will share information with law enforcement “in response to valid legal requests.”
The about-face came just days after self-styled “free speech” crusader Elon Muskclimbed down in his battle with Brazil. To refresh: Last month, Musk rejected a Brazilian court order for X to deactivate certain disinformation accounts, refused to pay relevant fines, removed X’s local legal rep, and launched a meme war against Brazil’s controversial disinformation czar.
As a result, X was banned outright in the 200-million-strong country, and that seems to have turned the tables. Now, the company is reportedly ready to take down the accounts, reappoint a rep in Brazil, and pay fines.
Depending on your politics, you may see all of this as a victory for the nation-state (nearly undefeated since the Peace of Westphalia, as GZERO’s Matt Kendrick points out) or as a hit to free speech and privacy. What’s your view? Share with us here.
Three ways to look at Brazil’s fight with Elon Musk
What on Earth is going on in Brazil? The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, is locked in a high-profile, increasingly nasty clash with Latin America’s largest economy, which has recently banned Musk’s X platform.
There are strong feelings and spicy memes. The X boss has accused his main opponent, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, of being “Voldemort” and “Darth Vader.” The dispute has even reached low-Earth orbit, ensnaring Musk’s Starlink satellites.
There are a few different ways to understand the spat – as a fight over speech, over sovereignty, or over egos. Each sheds light on a bigger issue in the increasingly fraught relationship between tech companies and national governments.
But first, the backstory.
For five years, Moraes has been investigating online disinformation and perceived online threats to Brazil’s democracy.
He has focused particular attention on accounts related, or sympathetic, to former President Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing firebrand whose followers – whipped into a frenzy by (false) online allegations of vote rigging – ransacked Congress after he lost the 2022 election.
Moraes – whose prominent brow and perfectly bald pate do give him a bit of an Orlokian air, even if Voldemort is a stretch – has ordered raids on politicians’ homes, frozen their bank accounts, and even got Bolsonaro himself banned from politics for eight years.
His supporters say he’s fighting to protect democracy in an extremely online country that has a recent history of dictatorship. His critics say he’s playing loose with the law, overreaching, and pursuing an ideological agenda that suppresses free speech.
Enter Musk.
Not long ago, Moraes ordered X to suspend several popular accounts without naming them or explaining why. Musk, who now styles himself as a free speech defender (so long as he isn’t doing the defending in, say, India or Turkey, where he has complied with government demands to ban content), said the orders were illegal. He laid off a bunch of local staff rather than comply (while still leaving the service running).
Moraes, in turn, shut down X entirely in Brazil on the grounds that the company now lacked a local legal representative. As of a week ago, X no longer functions there. For X-ers in the rest of the world, the site has run extensive threads on what they say is Moraes’ overreach.
Ordinary Brazilians are split over the ban, but to be fair, X isn’t even among the top five social media apps in the country. (If you know Brazil, you know that if Moraes were to shut down, say, WhatsApp, there would either be a revolution or the country would simply evaporate in 24 hours.) Things could stay like this for a while.
So what’s this all about?
View one: It’s about speech! It’s no secret that governments around the world are grappling with the security and political stability implications of massive, unfiltered communications platforms where the velocity and reach of truth, lies, opinions, and cat memes is simply unprecedented.
“There’s a common thread of governments these days getting impatient with the platforms’ inability to self-police,” says Alexis Serfaty, a technology policy expert at Eurasia Group. “And they’re trying to act against a range of threats that they see, from public safety, to public health, and even to political stability.”
This explains X’s simultaneous legal battle with the EU over content moderation, as well as France’s charges against Telegram, which it accuses of prioritizing free speech over public safety and respect for local laws.
For a democracy, Brazil has especially expansive rules on what the government can try to root out – critics point out that the country now joins Russia, China, and Iran on the list of places where X is banned.
And if companies want to be there, they have to follow those rules, sure. But in the broader perspective, is the opaque policing of speech like this really the best way to preserve a democracy?
View two: It’s about sovereignty! Moraes has said as much. But this isn’t your grandad’s clash between multinational companies and national governments. The big global companies of yore – oil, mining, manufacturing – operated in a small number of sectors and had little direct contact with the public at large. Today’s tech firms, by contrast, shape the discourse, perceptions, politics, commerce, and even romances of billions of people globally all day, every day.
That’s a new kind of power – a very smart and well-known person I work with has dubbed it the “Technopolar world” – and we haven’t figured out yet what the balance of that power is.
View three: It’s about me! Moraes and Musk are two of the biggest egos on the planet. Part of this fight is personal, but not in the way you might think: Each of these men sees the outcome of this conflict as setting a big precedent.
“It’ll be interesting to see what happens in Brazil,” says Serfaty, “because I think if a government has success enforcing a specific action against a specific company – does that encourage more regulatory or other kinds of enforcement action in different countries? Does that kind of give them a little bit of momentum to push that forward?”
Should it? Where are the right lines between speech and safety, companies and countries? Let me know your thoughts here, and I’ll run some of the best responses in an upcoming mailbag.