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Members of the military police special unit detain suspected drug dealers during a police operation against drug trafficking at the favela do Penha, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Massive drug raid in Brazil, Five Republicans vote to scrap Brazil tariffs, Wildlife charity eyes duke’s estate, & More
64: A massive police raid targeting a drug-trafficking organization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, yesterday has left at least 64 people dead, including four police officers. The state governor said it was the “biggest operation” in Rio’s history. More than 40 bodies were seen strewn on the streets of the Penha favela on Wednesday.
5: Five Republican senators crossed party lines to vote to end the Trump administration’s 50% tariff on Brazil. The resolution is unlikely to pass the House, but the vote signaled growing resistance in the Republican ranks to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff and trade agenda.
750,000: Cuba evacuated 750,000 people before Hurricane Melissa made landfall on the Caribbean island on Wednesday. The storm only adds to a torrent of challenges for the communist-ruled country, which has faced economic collapse, frequent blackouts, and a mass exodus of its citizens. The category 5 storm has weakened to category 2 since wreaking havoc in Jamaica, which is still assessing the cost.
99.9%: Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates today? Futures markets this morning gave a 99.9% chance of a 25 basis-point cut (that’s 0.25 percentage points). This would be the second consecutive month of rate cuts. Trump has pushed the Fed for deeper and faster rate cuts than that.
£30 million: After seven centuries of family control, the son of a British duke is looking to sell his family’s estate in north-east England, and one of the interested buyers is… a wildlife charity. The Wildlife Trusts already bought the western part of the estate last year, but the plot thickens: it’s now looking to buy the remaining 3,839 hectares for £30 million ($40 million). The charity would try to conserve and rewild the area, which is rich with wildlife. Editor’s note: People outside the UK may wonder why we included this fascinating number – but GZERO’s Zac Weisz assures us it’s a real banger for his fellow Brits.
Trump orders Lula to free Bolsonaro
Trump tries Brazil. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME here!
Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars.
Despite conviction, Bolsonaro’s shadow looms over Brazilian politics
Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars. (Though if he makes it to 105, he might still be viable in American politics.)
The decision was hardly surprising – the only thing unexpected was Justice Luiz Fux's dissent in the five-judge panel. The evidence against Bolsonaro was overwhelming, making a successful appeal unlikely. This marks the first time in Brazil’s history that a coup plotter has been brought to justice – a staggering win for the rule of law in a country that only returned to democracy in 1985 after two decades of military dictatorship.
But anyone expecting this moment to turn the page on the radical polarization of the Bolsonaro era and heal Brazil’s political wounds is in for a rude awakening. If anything, the ruling will deepen Brazil’s existing divides and further erode trust in institutions – courts, the media, political parties – heading into next year’s presidential election. The country remains as hopelessly divided as ever, with 51% of Brazilians approving the conviction while 43% see it as political persecution – reflecting partisan opposition to and support for Bolsonaro.
And also no surprise: US President Donald Trump is pouring gasoline on the fire. Bolsonaro’s friend and ideological ally has called the trial a “witch hunt” and weaponized American leverage to bully Brazil into dropping the charges. Even before the verdict came down, the White House had slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, revoked travel visas for government officials and Supreme Court justices, and hit Alexandre de Moraes – the lead judge on the case – with Magnitsky sanctions typically reserved for the world’s worst human-rights abusers. Following the conviction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised America would "respond accordingly" to what he called an "unjust" ruling. More visa suspensions, expanded Magnitsky sanctions, and potential penalties against state-owned Banco do Brasil are on the way.
But Trump's attempts to help Bolsonaro will continue to do the exact opposite. The ex-president’s son Eduardo, a congressman close to Steve Bannon who moved to Texas and has been lobbying the White House for tougher measures against his own country, is now hugely unpopular at home and faces potential criminal charges. By contrast, President Lula has seized the moment to rally Brazilians around the flag, casting himself as the defender of national sovereignty against Trump and the Bolsonaro clan. His defiance has boosted his popularity and, together with easing inflation, makes him a narrow favorite heading into 2026.
Meanwhile, both countries will lose as US-Brazil relations sink further, especially if Lula’s retaliation leads to a tit-for-tat escalatory spiral. But Brasilia, like most other world capitals, is already hedging away from US leverage – deepening ties with Europe, China, the Middle East, Mexico, Canada, and potentially ASEAN to make sure Washington is less able to hurt it in the future (more on this here). The ultimate casualty may be the century-old partnership between the Western Hemisphere's two largest democracies.
What about a get-out-of-jail-free card? Bolsonaristas have been pushing for an amnesty bill that would pardon everyone involved in the January 8 coup attempt, including the former president. But the bill faces (very) long odds. Never mind that more than half of Brazilians oppose full clemency for Bolsonaro – so does most of the Senate leadership. Plus, the Supreme Court has already signaled that crimes against democracy aren’t pardonable, rendering any blanket amnesty law unconstitutional. Lawmakers might agree to reduce sentences for the 1,600 rank-and-file Jan. 8 rioters in order to break the current congressional deadlock. But, for now at least, Bolsonaro and his inner circle look set to do serious time.
And yet, even from behind bars, the ex-president will remain the undisputed leader of the opposition. He’s still competitive with Lula in hypothetical head-to-head polls, and his martyr status with his base guarantees he’ll be the kingmaker of the Brazilian right in 2026. Whoever he anoints to succeed him will almost certainly make it to the run-off. His goal will be to install someone who is likely to both beat Lula and secure his freedom.
But wait – didn’t I just say that Bolsonaro can’t be pardoned? Yes, but here’s the twist: Though the current Supreme Court says pardons for anti-democratic crimes are unconstitutional, the next president will have a chance to reshape the court’s composition, and Justice Fux's dissenting vote suggests that a different court might view the ex-president’s case more favorably. That means Bolsonaro’s path to freedom may depend less on today’s legal rulings than on the outcome of the next election.
So, who will get the nod to lead the right in 2026? Bolsonaro is torn between loyalty and electability. His first choice, a family member (whether one of his three sons or his wife, Michelle), guarantees the former but is a tougher sell to swing voters, especially given their associations with Trump's politically toxic penalties. The other option is São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who has real national appeal and polls better against Lula. Popular, pragmatic, and disciplined, Freitas has been making all the right noises for the convicted ex-President, criticizing the court, pushing Congress for amnesty, and vowing to pardon Bolsonaro on day one. Justice Fux’s dissent strengthens the case, however thin, for Freitas to argue that he’s better placed to negotiate a future pardon with a reconstituted Supreme Court and therefore that he’s Bolsonaro’s best shot at freedom.
Yet Bolsonaro also knows that if Freitas backtracks on his promise or his pardon hits a judicial wall, the former president could be left to rot in jail while his successor consolidates power. That’s why, even if Freitas looks like the logical choice today, Bolsonaro will likely keep his cards close to his chest right up to the filing deadline, when he could go either way.
Brazil’s democracy emerged from its coup attempt stronger than before. Institutions held firm, justice was served, and the rule of law carried the day. That’s more than the United States can say. But it’s only half the battle. Courts can send a former president to prison; they can’t send him into political oblivion or unite a country that’s split right down the middle. Bolsonaro may spend the rest of his life behind bars, but his influence – and the nation’s bitter divides – will continue to shape Brazilian politics for years to come.
US President Donald Trump, King Charles III, First Lady Melania Trump and Queen Camilla during the ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle, Berkshire, on day one of the president's second state visit to the UK, on September 17, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump’s UK state visit begins, Brazil court fines Bolsonaro for racist comment, Ecuadorians protest new gold mine, & More
150: Pageantry will dominate the first day of US President Donald Trump’s state visit to the United Kingdom on Wednesday, culminating with an exclusive 150-person white-tie state banquet, featuring a toast to the president by King Charles III. The harder-edged politics will come on Thursday, when Trump meets with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
1 million: Days after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for fomenting a coup, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is in trouble with the law again. A federal court ordered him to pay a fine of 1 million reais ($188,865) for a racist comment he made to a Black supporter in 2021, telling him that his hair was a “cockroach breeding ground.”
$400 million: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is investing $400 million in satellite internet in a bid to improve the country’s drastically low connectivity rate. Only one in three Congolese is connected to the mobile internet. The company completing the project is co-owned by the Turkmenistan government.
90,000: An estimated 90,000 protestors took to the streets of Cuenca in central Ecuador to protest the construction of the Loma Larga gold mine there. Local residents are concerned the Canadian-run project will contaminate a critical water reserve.
47: Ben & Jerry’s co-founder Jerry Greenfield is leaving the ice cream giant that he founded 47 years ago in protest against its parent company Unilever for limiting his firm’s social activism. Greenfield is an outspoken progressive, and previously tussled with Unilever when Ben & Jerry’s refused to sell ice cream to Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Brazil sentences Bolsonaro: What it means for democracy and US-Brazil relations
Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn the 2022 election and allegedly conspiring to assassinate President Lula. In this week's "ask ian," Ian Bremmer says the verdict highlights how “your response… has nothing to do with rule of law. It has everything to do with tribal political affiliation.”
While amnesty for junior coup plotters is likely, Bolsonaro himself appears headed for jail, unless his allies return to power. Meanwhile, US sanctions and tariffs have fueled backlash inside Brazil. As Ian puts it, “Brazil is doing everything they can to hedge away from the United States.”
Former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro is inaugurating Route 22 in eight cities in Rio Grande do Norte, starting with the cities of Extremoz, Natal, Parnamirim, and Mossoro, in Natal, Brazil, on August 16, 2024.
Brazil’s ex-President Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for coup plot
Brazil’s Supreme Court has convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup to stay in power after losing the 2022 election — a historic first in a country that’s lived through 15 coups.
Four of the court’s five justices voted to find Bolsonaro and seven allies, including his running mate and top military officials, guilty of conspiring to overturn the result and hatching a plan to kill their opponent, current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro, who had already been banned from seeking public office again, has been sentenced to a 27-year prison sentence. He is expected to appeal.
How we got here. Bolsonaro, a former army captain far-right firebrand who was elected president in 2018, spent the 2022 re-election campaign spreading claims of election fraud that were disproven by official investigations. After losing to his leftwing nemesis Lula, his supporters stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court, and presidential palace on Jan. 8, 2023, demanding the military step in and overturn the results.
In recent weeks, the US has put pressure on Brazil over the trial. Bolsonaro is a close ally – and stylistic emulator – of US president Donald Trump, who has publicly pressured Lula to force the court to drop the charges, threatening high tariffs, sanctions on court justices, and other punitive measures on Latin America’s largest economy.
Those attacks have seemingly backfired – boosting the popularity of the aging and unpopular Lula, who has styled himself as a defender of Brazilian honor and sovereignty. The court justices, meanwhile, appear not to have been swayed by American pressure.
But Bolsonaro’s movement isn’t going away. Eurasia Group Brazil expert Silvio Cascione warns this is not the “turning of the page” many of Bolsonaro’s opponents may hope for. The ruling “crystallizes Brazil’s deep polarization rather than resolving it,” he said. Public opinion is split almost evenly: 43% say the trial was unfair, 51% back the conviction.
“The real concern isn't massive street protests,” Cascione says, “but rather the continued erosion of institutional trust that's been poisoning Brazilian politics for years. Courts, media, and political parties all suffer from a credibility deficit.”
Bolsonaro is still the kingmaker of the Brazilian right. Polls still show he’d be the strongest challenger to Lula in next year’s presidential election, so his endorsement could still shape the race. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas has already emerged as a top heir to Bolsonaro’s movement, courting the former president’s base and floating an amnesty bill in Congress.
The conviction is set to roil relations with Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the ruling a “witch hunt” and signaled possible retaliation, including sanctions on the justices who voted to convict.
If so, Brazil is unlikely to hit back directly, as an actual trade war with the world’s largest economy – and a major source of investment – could get ugly fast.
But tensions with Washington could still have a political upside for Lula. “In what promises to be a highly competitive race,” says Cascione, “playing the victim of American bullying could actually help Lula
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, speaks during a press conference, after Brazil's Supreme Court issued a house arrest order for his father, in Brasilia, Brazil, August 5, 2025.
Bolsonaro’s trial opens as Brazil braces for fallout
Brazil’s Supreme Court on Tuesday began the final phase of the historic trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Prosecutors say he conspired with allies to overturn the result, sought military backing, and even weighed assassinating rivals. If convicted, he could face more than 40 years in prison.
The trial is expected to run about 10 days, following months of arguments and witness testimony. Bolsonaro himself skipped the opening session, with lawyers citing a debilitating bout of hiccups – a lingering complication from a 2018 stabbing.
Why it matters: For a country scarred by coups and dictatorship, prosecuting a former leader is a democratic stress test. Analysts expect a conviction, which would inflame Bolsonaro’s base and deepen political tensions.
“Some analysts and political leaders hope that the trial will reduce polarization and pacify the political landscape. However, that is wishful thinking.” says Eurasia Group Managing Director and Brazil expert Chris Garman. “Keep in mind that roughly 40% of the electorate still believes that Bolsonaro won the 2022 election, and a large share of voters are still likely to see the trial as political persecution.”
What remains of Bolsonaro’s movement? Banned from seeking office until 2030, Bolsonaro has left his populist-right movement alive but adrift. Supporters are planning nationwide protests on Sept. 7, Independence Day, and Garman says that the “anti-establishment sentiment that got Bolsonaro elected in 2018 will persist.”
“Despite already being ineligible to run in 2026, several polls show Bolsonaro as the strongest candidate to challenge President Lula in 2026. That means whoever he endorses to run in his place will have a good shot of making it to a run-off against Lula.”
But no clear successor has emerged. “Pressure is high for Bolsonaro to crown São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas as his heir, instead of a family member.” says Garman. “In the coming months, all eyes will be on Bolsonaro’s decision on who to support in 2026. His martyr status will cement his “kingmaker” role in next year’s electoral cycle.”
The US angle: Bolsonaro has found an ally in US President Donald Trump, who views the trial as an anti-democratic witch hunt. His administration slapped a 50% tariff on Brazil and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice handling the case. Garman expects “the conviction will trigger more US sanctions on Brazilian individuals,” and that, “the US may also classify Brazil’s organized crime groups as terrorist organizations, increasing compliance risks for financial institutions.”
If Washington escalates, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – who has gained some political momentum thanks to Trump’s heavy-handed interventions – may pivot harder toward China, the Middle East, and the EU, where the long-stalled trade deal between the EU and South America’s largest trading bloc, Mercosur, is finally moving forward.A service member of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops near a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine August 20, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Russia continues bombarding Ukraine, UK councils seek more refugee hotel removals, Brazil’s ex-leader accused of Argentina escape plan, Conservationist charged with smuggling rhino horns, NYC mayor’s aide hands cash to reporter
614: For all the US efforts to end it, the Russia-Ukraine war is showing no signs of slowing down, as Moscow fired 614 drones and other missiles at its neighbor. Kyiv said it intercepted 577 of the weapons, but some of them still landed on Ukrainian soil – one person died in Lviv, while 15 were reported wounded in the south-west region of Transcarpathia.
32,000: The living arrangements of 32,000 asylum seekers who live in United Kingdom hotels may be threatened, as a raft of local councils seek to use a High Court ruling from Tuesday as precedent to oust more refugees from local homestays. Around 80 councils, run by a range of political parties, are considering such a move.
170: Brazilian police have handed in a 170-page report accusing former President Jair Bolsonaro of planning to flee to Argentina ahead of his sentencing. The report is based on messages in Bolsonaro’s phone. He is facing a 40 year sentence for allegedly plotting a military coup.
$14 million: It’s often the ones you least expect. South African authorities have charged a leading conservationist with smuggling $14 million of rhino horns from the Rainbow Nation through to Southeast Asia. John Hume denied the allegations and said he has “nothing to hide.”
$100: An adviser to New York City Mayor Eric Adams handed a journalist a potato chip bag stuffed with a $100 bill, and a number of $20 bills, following a campaign event in the Harlem area of New York City on Wednesday. The intent behind the transfer is unclear, but the adviser’s lawyer said it was “a gesture of friendship and gratitude.” It’s not the only rough news for an Adams associate: several of the mayor’s aides and supporters are set to face corruption charges in the coming days.