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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Russia's President Vladimir Putin during their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin, Indigenous voters in Bolivia shift right, Lula’s anti-Trump strategy goes global
Trump to meet with Putin, proposes trilateral summit with Putin and Zelensky
The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with US President Donald Trump “in the coming days” to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. The location of the meeting isn’t yet clear. Trump also reportedly told a group of European leaders yesterday he will hold a (so-far unconfirmed) trilateral summit with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump has been trying without success to get Putin to end the war – threatening further sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian trade partners. Will his personal powers of persuasion do the trick?
Amid economic turmoil, Indigenous voters in Bolivia shift right
With the Bolivian election just 10 days away, economic grievances are causing Indigenous voters – who represent 62% of the population – to abandon the ruling Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, which has long acted as their standard-bearer and has held power for most of the last 20 years. Natural gas exports have plummeted and inflation has risen to a 40-year high. MAS now trails conservative rivals in polling. Bolivia’s election could be a bellwether for socialist difficulties elsewhere in the region: ruling left-wing movements in Chile and Colombia also face a challenging path to reelection in the next 12 months.
Brazil’s Lula goes global with anti-Trump stance
But if some LatAm leftists are looking cooked, at least one other is cooking. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is giving no ground in his clash with Trump, telling Reuters he won’t “humiliate” himself by calling the White House. The US president has threatened Latin America’s largest economy with steep tariffs over the prosecution of right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump pal, on charges he plotted a coup after losing the 2022 election. The aging Lula, now in his third term and debating a fourth, has gotten a bounce at home from telling the gringo president to stuff it. But his recent spate of high-profile international media interviews suggests he’s leaning into the “anti-Trump” role at the global level, too. Narendra Modi, take note?
Trump's tariffs are already changing global trade
The Trump administration is imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike—15% on the EU, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India. America has become the main driver of global economic uncertainty and increasingly seen as an unreliable trade partner. So what can countries do? They adapt. If they can’t trade through Washington, they’ll try trading around it.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the new global trade map as allies negotiate their own alliances in ways that make them less vulnerable to US chaos. The biggest power play is coming from the EU, which is pitching itself as a steadfast trade partner—reinforcing ties with the UK, Latin America, and Asia, and even floating the idea of an EU-led alternative to the WTO. The US economy is still the largest in the world, it won’t be excluded from global trade entirely. But global supply chains are sticky, and new trade relationships could long outlast Trump’s presidency. As America walks away from 80 years of economic leadership, does it risk being left behind?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
People walk out of the West Wing of the White House with "The Epstein Files: Phase 1" binders, in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
What We're Watching: Trump under fire for Epstein scandal, Brazil raids Bolsonaro's home, North Korean beaches close to foreigners
Trump, under GOP pressure, orders release of Epstein materials
“Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret,” US President Donald Trump reportedly wrote in a 2003 note to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump says the letter is “fake” and has threatened to sue media mogul Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Journal. But after days of claiming that the Epstein case was a “hoax” – despite promising to publicize the files during his 2024 campaign – Trump instructed the Justice Department to release grand jury testimony from the Epstein prosecution. This falls short of some MAGA demands for the release of all investigative materials, but Trump is under pressure: 62% of Republicans now believe he is hiding Epstein’s “client list.” Could the scandal undermine Trump’s vice-like hold on his own party?
Brazil’s government doubles down against Bolsonaro
Brazilian police on Friday raided the home of former President Jair Bolsonaro and ordered him to wear an ankle bracelet to prevent him from fleeing the country. The rightwing populist is currently on trial for plotting a coup after losing his 2022 re-election bid. The move comes just days after Trump threatened crippling tariffs on Brazil over the “witch hunt” of his pal Bolsonaro. But current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has found that bucking Trump is popular – the leftwing leader’s dismal ratings have leapt as much as 5 points since he shot back at the “gringo” president. Still, Lula must tread carefully: Brazil is deeply polarized and Bolsonaro is popular with as much as 40% of the population.
North Korea closes beaches to foreigners (shucks!)
Just weeks after North Korea unveiled the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone — the summer’s hottest new vacation spot — the government has abruptly closed it to foreigners. No explanation was given. So far, the only tourists allowed in have been Russian. If you were planning to spend your August beachside in North Korea, we hope you booked refundable tickets — and we can at least offer you this banger from Puppet Regime as a consolation prize.Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
US-Brazil relations in crisis
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down the growing crisis between the US and Brazil, sparked by Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil.
Ian argues Trump’s tariffs are not driven not by trade but by politics.“This is clearly an abuse of executive authority,” Ian says, adding the tariffs have “nothing to do with a national security emergency.” He notes the move targets Brazil over efforts to prosecute former President Jair Bolsonaro and for legislation moving against social media companies.
Ian warns that Trump’s move could backfire badly. “Lula is going to lean into this fight,” he explains, noting it may hurt Bolsonaro’s political chances. Trump’s goal? “Purely a political vendetta… it doesn’t advance the American national interest,” says Ian. He predicts this unprecedented intervention could ultimately “blow up in Trump’s face.”
Graphic Truth: The BRICS+ in a "G-Zero" world
The BRICS, a loose grouping of ten “emerging market” economies led by Brazil, Russia, India and China, held their 17th annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, this weekend. While the official readout from the summit emphasized their commitment to multilateralism, the guestlist begged to differ. Five of the 10 leaders were no-shows, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While the group’s declaration took aim at tariffs increases and recent attacks against Iran, it stopped short of mentioning the US or naming President Donald Trump directly. For more, here’s GZERO writer Willis Sparks’ explainer on why the BRICS are a bad bet.Graphic Truth: Mexico and Brazil seek to boost trade ties
Mexico and Brazil are exploring ways to boost their trade ties, and there’s certainly room for improvement: bilateral commerce between Latin America’s two largest economies amounted to just $13.6 billion last year. That’s less than 10% of Brazil’s trade with China, and not even 2% of Mexico’s trade with the US. While the two countries have historically competed for dominance, the Trump administration’s latest tariffs and the election of left-wing leadership in both Brazil and Mexico have motivated closer cooperation.
Here’s a look at where trade between Brazil and Mexico currently stands.
Graphic Truth: G7 vs BRICS, who has more economic clout?
The G7 countries – the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan – will convene this weekend in Kananaskis, a rural town in the mountains of Alberta, Canada. High on the meeting’s agenda are tariffs, artificial intelligence, and international security, with special focus on Russian sanctions and Israel’s recent attacks on Iran.
While the G7 was originally formed as an informal grouping of the world’s wealthiest democracies, the BRICS – composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – have sought to challenge their dominance of the global agenda.
Here’s a look at how the share of the global economy held by G7 and BRICS nations has evolved over time.