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US President Donald Trump, King Charles III, First Lady Melania Trump and Queen Camilla during the ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle, Berkshire, on day one of the president's second state visit to the UK, on September 17, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump’s UK state visit begins, Brazil court fines Bolsonaro for racist comment, Ecuadorians protest new gold mine, & More
150: Pageantry will dominate the first day of US President Donald Trump’s state visit to the United Kingdom on Wednesday, culminating with an exclusive 150-person white-tie state banquet, featuring a toast to the president by King Charles III. The harder-edged politics will come on Thursday, when Trump meets with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
1 million: Days after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for fomenting a coup, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is in trouble with the law again. A federal court ordered him to pay a fine of 1 million reais ($188,865) for a racist comment he made to a Black supporter in 2021, telling him that his hair was a “cockroach breeding ground.”
$400 million: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is investing $400 million in satellite internet in a bid to improve the country’s drastically low connectivity rate. Only one in three Congolese is connected to the mobile internet. The company completing the project is co-owned by the Turkmenistan government.
90,000: An estimated 90,000 protestors took to the streets of Cuenca in central Ecuador to protest the construction of the Loma Larga gold mine there. Local residents are concerned the Canadian-run project will contaminate a critical water reserve.
47: Ben & Jerry’s co-founder Jerry Greenfield is leaving the ice cream giant that he founded 47 years ago in protest against its parent company Unilever for limiting his firm’s social activism. Greenfield is an outspoken progressive, and previously tussled with Unilever when Ben & Jerry’s refused to sell ice cream to Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Brazil sentences Bolsonaro: What it means for democracy and US-Brazil relations
Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn the 2022 election and allegedly conspiring to assassinate President Lula. In this week's "ask ian," Ian Bremmer says the verdict highlights how “your response… has nothing to do with rule of law. It has everything to do with tribal political affiliation.”
While amnesty for junior coup plotters is likely, Bolsonaro himself appears headed for jail, unless his allies return to power. Meanwhile, US sanctions and tariffs have fueled backlash inside Brazil. As Ian puts it, “Brazil is doing everything they can to hedge away from the United States.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures during a joint press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We're Watching: Modi defies Trump on Russian oil, Bolsonaro put under house arrest, Israel proposes full occupation of Gaza
India digs in heels amid Trump’s tariff threat
US President Donald Trump has doubled down on his tariff threat against India, warning he will “substantially” raise the duty on Indian imports in order to stop Delhi from buying Russian oil. India is unmoved, though, calling the threat “unjustified.” This spat might not just be about oil, though – amid ongoing trade talks, Washington is pressing India to open up its massive agricultural markets, a bitter pill for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to swallow.
Brazil’s top court puts Bolsonaro under house arrest
Brazil has placed former President Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest, after he violated the terms of a previous court order by posting on social media. The right-wing leader and Trump ally is on trial for allegedly planning a coup after his 2022 election loss. The latest move is certain to heighten US-Brazil tensions – last month Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, blasting current leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro.
Netanyahu to propose full Gaza occupation
With Gaza ceasefire talks once again going nowhere, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly seek approval to fully occupy the strip at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday evening. Israel already controls 75% of the enclave, and the head of the Israeli military has warned that a full occupation could put soldiers and the remaining hostages, 20 of whom are still believed to be alive, at risk. Israel first took control of Gaza during the Six Day War in 1967, but formally withdrew its military and settlers in 2005 for security reasons. Netanyahu opposed that move at the time.
Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
US-Brazil relations in crisis
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down the growing crisis between the US and Brazil, sparked by Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil.
Ian argues Trump’s tariffs are not driven not by trade but by politics.“This is clearly an abuse of executive authority,” Ian says, adding the tariffs have “nothing to do with a national security emergency.” He notes the move targets Brazil over efforts to prosecute former President Jair Bolsonaro and for legislation moving against social media companies.
Ian warns that Trump’s move could backfire badly. “Lula is going to lean into this fight,” he explains, noting it may hurt Bolsonaro’s political chances. Trump’s goal? “Purely a political vendetta… it doesn’t advance the American national interest,” says Ian. He predicts this unprecedented intervention could ultimately “blow up in Trump’s face.”
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro walks after the Supreme Court voted that he should stand trial for allegedly attempting a coup after his 2022 electoral defeat, in Brasilia, Brazil, on March 26, 2025.
Brazil’s top court greenlights Bolsonaro trial
Much like Jair Bolsonaro’s beloved Seleção, which lost its soccer match to Argentina this week, the former Brazilian president has reason to be concerned about his own defensive strategy. On Wednesday, the country’s Supreme Court ordered him to stand trial for his alleged efforts to overturn the last election. The ruling raises the prospect of the 70-year-old ending up behind bars and imperils his hopes of running for office in 2026.
The case at hand: Brazil’s Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Bolsonaro and 33 others in February with attempting a coup on Jan. 8, 2023, and accused them of forging a plot to poison President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and kill a Supreme Court justice. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing.
It is “highly likely” that the court will also find Bolsonaro guilty, said Eurasia Group Managing Director Chris Garman, but that wouldn’t stop him from holding significant sway at the next election in 2026.
“From an electoral point of view, he will remain a kingmaker on the right for the 2026 presidential election,” said Garman. “Polls consistently show his public support hasn’t dropped since the last presidential election, and he will be seen as a martyr among the conservative voters who will agree with claims he is being politically persecuted.”
Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is Trump's long-term play with apparently treating Putin like a friend rather than an adversary?
His play is to end the war in Ukraine. His play is to be seen as a great deal-maker and also a return to what we call the law of the jungle, where the most powerful countries are the ones that deserve to be at the table, and if you're not at the table you're being served for dinner. That is where I think we're going. I don't think that Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted to be there, but he's much more... He's going to be loyal, and I think the Republican senators have pushed back hard on Gaza but not so much on this. We'll see. Certainly from Riyadh, from what we've heard from Elon, what we've heard from Trump, they are working very hard to get a full reconciliation between the United States and Russia, between Trump and Putin, irrespective of what the Europeans have to say about it. And the Ukrainians are going to be pressed very, very hard to accept the deal or be left all by themselves. We'll see how the Europeans and the Ukrainians play it, but that is what they're looking at.
How likely would the release of all remaining captives, as proposed by Hamas, actually lead to a permanent truce with Israel?
Well permanent truce with Israel implies you can agree on what governance in Gaza is going to look like. The Israelis, of course, refuse to accept a state for the Palestinians. The Israelis refuse not only for Hamas to participate in any government, not surprisingly. But, of course, also the Palestinian authority participate in government. That's very different from what the Gulf states, what the Egyptians, what the Jordanians, all America's allies, are planning to propose for Gaza. I think we can get an extended ceasefire. That ceasefire might last essentially permanently, but the Israelis would still have a buffer zone, you wouldn't be heading towards statehood, and the Israelis would reserve the right to continue to engage in selected strikes if they see targets of opportunity that they consider to be militants working with for Hamas. So that's where I think we are, but very unlikely at this point that I think you'll see a restart of the war that has been lasting for well over a year at this point. I think full-blown military incursion on the ground is now on the rear-view mirror.
Does Bolsonaro's indictment for an alleged coup plot signal tough times ahead for Brazil?
I think it does. It's very likely that Bolsonaro is going to end up imprisoned. That case is going to take a while to work through the courts. Probably won't be resolved until 2026 with all the appeals that will end up happening, but he won't be able to run again. Now you can still announce you're going to run and then pull out your candidacy at the last minute like Lula did, who served time in jail himself in the past, so this isn't completely new uncharted territory for the Brazilians. But keep in mind that if Bolsonaro is refused to be allowed to run, he is completely supported by Trump. He's completely supported by Elon Musk, and that will get stronger. The Supreme Court in Brazil is politicized and is also seen by Trump and Musk as root of all evil in Brazil, so they'll be going after that. And will that be tied to tougher tariffs on Brazil? I expect it will. So, I think Brazil is going to be in a lot of trouble here, and I think that their economy is probably going to take a hit on the back of what we're going to see politically inside Brazil and the nature of the relations with the United States. Okay, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Brazil's X ban becomes a rallying cry for Bolsonaro
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Haven't spoken in a while about Brazil, and thought I might, given the demonstrations going on over the weekend and the big fight that is going on around democracy, around free speech, around the social media site that is known as Twitter/X. The issue here is that as in the United States, politics in Brazil exceptionally polarized and divided lots of issues questioning the future of the country's democracy, whether or not you can have a free and fair transition. January 8th in Brazil has the resonance for part of its population the way that January 6th does in the United States, participants seen as patriots by the other part of the population. You see where we're going here. One big difference between Brazil and the United States is in the United States, the Supreme Court, while it has at times a liberal and presently a conservative bent, is still an independent organization that is very separate from the executive.
In Brazil, it is much more politicized and corrupt. And specifically the effort to take down Twitter / X, in Brazil as well as freeze the accounts of Starlink for example, also owned by Elon Musk, has been overreach, politicized overreach by one specific Supreme Court member, Alexandre de Moraes, and has been approved by the Supreme Court as a whole. Now the issue here is a number of accounts that were disseminating disinformation, fake news, and claimed by the government needed to be taken down by Twitter / X. Twitter / X has refused to do so. And that angered those on the left in Brazil, especially because when other demands are made to remove individual accounts in other countries, like in Turkey or the UAE, which are made with similarly, I would say, tenuous justification, but if that's what the political leaders are saying in that country, that amounts to an order by a relevant authority.
Twitter / X has historically overwhelmingly complied and, indeed, taken down those accounts. We've seen that in a number of countries, not all the time but most of the time, and that hasn't been the case in Brazil. Is the reason why Elon Musk and Twitter refuse to remove these accounts because he's politically aligned or sympathetic with them? Certainly that would be the argument that is being made in Brazil. But there is an opportunity here from the conservatives, including from former President Bolsonaro to use this and the opposition to freedom of speech as a rallying call. And that was what we saw in these demonstrations over the weekend. They were significant. You might've seen the photos. About 50,000 total on Brazil's Independence Day, that's September 7th, in Sao Paulo attending the rally. They're small historically in context. I mean, Bolsonaro back in February got almost 200,000 protesters, so about four times as many to attend a rally also in Sao Paulo.
But it was significant because it does show that the defense of liberty and democracy is a rallying cry of the opposition in the next presidential election that's coming up in 2026, which is not so far away. And both Bolsonaro's speech as well as most of the conservative leaders that appeared with him, like the Sao Paulo governor for example, had heavy, heavy criticism of the Supreme Court ruling and specifically of Justice de Moraes, as we've seen from Elon. And they are accusing the Supreme Court of undermining freedom of speech. With the ongoing court investigations both about disseminating false information about the electoral system and about the January 8th attacks in Brasilia. And the fact that X has now been banned from Brazil after Elon has refused to comply. And by the way, I mean it's not the most important, it's a comparatively small social media site in Brazil.
There are others that are much more popular. But still this is getting a lot of attention because it is such a political grenade, and that is helping the conservative opposition in Brazil say that individual freedoms are being undermined. And the interesting point here is this is related to the United States. Both sides of the aisle in Brazil just like both sides of the aisle in the United States believe that the other side is a threat to democracy in ways that you don't see in Canada, or the UK, or France, or Germany, or Japan, or South Korea. I would say Brazil is the one major democracy that most feels like the United States in terms of this level of political dysfunction. But what's interesting is that it is the Bolsonaro-led opposition that is using the defense of democracy and liberty to mobilize its base before the 2026 elections. This has historically been much more of a calling card of the left. And in the United States democratic voters care more about the issue of defending democracy as a political issue than Republicans do, in Brazil conservative voters care more about defense of democracy than voters on the left. And this fight that was started by the Supreme Court is playing into that narrative. So interesting, worth talking about, getting a lot of attention. Thought I would throw my own two cents in, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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- Lula vs Bolsonaro: A clash of titans in Brazil ›
- Brazil vs. Musk: Now in low Earth orbit ›
- Three ways to look at Brazil’s fight with Elon Musk ›
- Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment? - GZERO Media ›
- Is free speech under attack in Europe? Roberta Metsola weighs in - GZERO Media ›
- How did 'free speech' become a partisan weapon in America? - GZERO Media ›
- Free speech in Trump's America with NYT journalist Jeremy Peters and conservative scholar Ilya Shapiro - GZERO Media ›