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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures during a joint press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We're Watching: Modi defies Trump on Russian oil, Bolsonaro put under house arrest, Israel proposes full occupation of Gaza
India digs in heels amid Trump’s tariff threat
US President Donald Trump has doubled down on his tariff threat against India, warning he will “substantially” raise the duty on Indian imports in order to stop Delhi from buying Russian oil. India is unmoved, though, calling the threat “unjustified.” This spat might not just be about oil, though – amid ongoing trade talks, Washington is pressing India to open up its massive agricultural markets, a bitter pill for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to swallow.
Brazil’s top court puts Bolsonaro under house arrest
Brazil has placed former President Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest, after he violated the terms of a previous court order by posting on social media. The right-wing leader and Trump ally is on trial for allegedly planning a coup after his 2022 election loss. The latest move is certain to heighten US-Brazil tensions – last month Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, blasting current leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro.
Netanyahu to propose full Gaza occupation
With Gaza ceasefire talks once again going nowhere, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly seek approval to fully occupy the strip at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday evening. Israel already controls 75% of the enclave, and the head of the Israeli military has warned that a full occupation could put soldiers and the remaining hostages, 20 of whom are still believed to be alive, at risk. Israel first took control of Gaza during the Six Day War in 1967, but formally withdrew its military and settlers in 2005 for security reasons. Netanyahu opposed that move at the time.
Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
US-Brazil relations in crisis
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down the growing crisis between the US and Brazil, sparked by Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil.
Ian argues Trump’s tariffs are not driven not by trade but by politics.“This is clearly an abuse of executive authority,” Ian says, adding the tariffs have “nothing to do with a national security emergency.” He notes the move targets Brazil over efforts to prosecute former President Jair Bolsonaro and for legislation moving against social media companies.
Ian warns that Trump’s move could backfire badly. “Lula is going to lean into this fight,” he explains, noting it may hurt Bolsonaro’s political chances. Trump’s goal? “Purely a political vendetta… it doesn’t advance the American national interest,” says Ian. He predicts this unprecedented intervention could ultimately “blow up in Trump’s face.”
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro walks after the Supreme Court voted that he should stand trial for allegedly attempting a coup after his 2022 electoral defeat, in Brasilia, Brazil, on March 26, 2025.
Brazil’s top court greenlights Bolsonaro trial
Much like Jair Bolsonaro’s beloved Seleção, which lost its soccer match to Argentina this week, the former Brazilian president has reason to be concerned about his own defensive strategy. On Wednesday, the country’s Supreme Court ordered him to stand trial for his alleged efforts to overturn the last election. The ruling raises the prospect of the 70-year-old ending up behind bars and imperils his hopes of running for office in 2026.
The case at hand: Brazil’s Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Bolsonaro and 33 others in February with attempting a coup on Jan. 8, 2023, and accused them of forging a plot to poison President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and kill a Supreme Court justice. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing.
It is “highly likely” that the court will also find Bolsonaro guilty, said Eurasia Group Managing Director Chris Garman, but that wouldn’t stop him from holding significant sway at the next election in 2026.
“From an electoral point of view, he will remain a kingmaker on the right for the 2026 presidential election,” said Garman. “Polls consistently show his public support hasn’t dropped since the last presidential election, and he will be seen as a martyr among the conservative voters who will agree with claims he is being politically persecuted.”
Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is Trump's long-term play with apparently treating Putin like a friend rather than an adversary?
His play is to end the war in Ukraine. His play is to be seen as a great deal-maker and also a return to what we call the law of the jungle, where the most powerful countries are the ones that deserve to be at the table, and if you're not at the table you're being served for dinner. That is where I think we're going. I don't think that Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted to be there, but he's much more... He's going to be loyal, and I think the Republican senators have pushed back hard on Gaza but not so much on this. We'll see. Certainly from Riyadh, from what we've heard from Elon, what we've heard from Trump, they are working very hard to get a full reconciliation between the United States and Russia, between Trump and Putin, irrespective of what the Europeans have to say about it. And the Ukrainians are going to be pressed very, very hard to accept the deal or be left all by themselves. We'll see how the Europeans and the Ukrainians play it, but that is what they're looking at.
How likely would the release of all remaining captives, as proposed by Hamas, actually lead to a permanent truce with Israel?
Well permanent truce with Israel implies you can agree on what governance in Gaza is going to look like. The Israelis, of course, refuse to accept a state for the Palestinians. The Israelis refuse not only for Hamas to participate in any government, not surprisingly. But, of course, also the Palestinian authority participate in government. That's very different from what the Gulf states, what the Egyptians, what the Jordanians, all America's allies, are planning to propose for Gaza. I think we can get an extended ceasefire. That ceasefire might last essentially permanently, but the Israelis would still have a buffer zone, you wouldn't be heading towards statehood, and the Israelis would reserve the right to continue to engage in selected strikes if they see targets of opportunity that they consider to be militants working with for Hamas. So that's where I think we are, but very unlikely at this point that I think you'll see a restart of the war that has been lasting for well over a year at this point. I think full-blown military incursion on the ground is now on the rear-view mirror.
Does Bolsonaro's indictment for an alleged coup plot signal tough times ahead for Brazil?
I think it does. It's very likely that Bolsonaro is going to end up imprisoned. That case is going to take a while to work through the courts. Probably won't be resolved until 2026 with all the appeals that will end up happening, but he won't be able to run again. Now you can still announce you're going to run and then pull out your candidacy at the last minute like Lula did, who served time in jail himself in the past, so this isn't completely new uncharted territory for the Brazilians. But keep in mind that if Bolsonaro is refused to be allowed to run, he is completely supported by Trump. He's completely supported by Elon Musk, and that will get stronger. The Supreme Court in Brazil is politicized and is also seen by Trump and Musk as root of all evil in Brazil, so they'll be going after that. And will that be tied to tougher tariffs on Brazil? I expect it will. So, I think Brazil is going to be in a lot of trouble here, and I think that their economy is probably going to take a hit on the back of what we're going to see politically inside Brazil and the nature of the relations with the United States. Okay, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Brazil's X ban becomes a rallying cry for Bolsonaro
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Haven't spoken in a while about Brazil, and thought I might, given the demonstrations going on over the weekend and the big fight that is going on around democracy, around free speech, around the social media site that is known as Twitter/X. The issue here is that as in the United States, politics in Brazil exceptionally polarized and divided lots of issues questioning the future of the country's democracy, whether or not you can have a free and fair transition. January 8th in Brazil has the resonance for part of its population the way that January 6th does in the United States, participants seen as patriots by the other part of the population. You see where we're going here. One big difference between Brazil and the United States is in the United States, the Supreme Court, while it has at times a liberal and presently a conservative bent, is still an independent organization that is very separate from the executive.
In Brazil, it is much more politicized and corrupt. And specifically the effort to take down Twitter / X, in Brazil as well as freeze the accounts of Starlink for example, also owned by Elon Musk, has been overreach, politicized overreach by one specific Supreme Court member, Alexandre de Moraes, and has been approved by the Supreme Court as a whole. Now the issue here is a number of accounts that were disseminating disinformation, fake news, and claimed by the government needed to be taken down by Twitter / X. Twitter / X has refused to do so. And that angered those on the left in Brazil, especially because when other demands are made to remove individual accounts in other countries, like in Turkey or the UAE, which are made with similarly, I would say, tenuous justification, but if that's what the political leaders are saying in that country, that amounts to an order by a relevant authority.
Twitter / X has historically overwhelmingly complied and, indeed, taken down those accounts. We've seen that in a number of countries, not all the time but most of the time, and that hasn't been the case in Brazil. Is the reason why Elon Musk and Twitter refuse to remove these accounts because he's politically aligned or sympathetic with them? Certainly that would be the argument that is being made in Brazil. But there is an opportunity here from the conservatives, including from former President Bolsonaro to use this and the opposition to freedom of speech as a rallying call. And that was what we saw in these demonstrations over the weekend. They were significant. You might've seen the photos. About 50,000 total on Brazil's Independence Day, that's September 7th, in Sao Paulo attending the rally. They're small historically in context. I mean, Bolsonaro back in February got almost 200,000 protesters, so about four times as many to attend a rally also in Sao Paulo.
But it was significant because it does show that the defense of liberty and democracy is a rallying cry of the opposition in the next presidential election that's coming up in 2026, which is not so far away. And both Bolsonaro's speech as well as most of the conservative leaders that appeared with him, like the Sao Paulo governor for example, had heavy, heavy criticism of the Supreme Court ruling and specifically of Justice de Moraes, as we've seen from Elon. And they are accusing the Supreme Court of undermining freedom of speech. With the ongoing court investigations both about disseminating false information about the electoral system and about the January 8th attacks in Brasilia. And the fact that X has now been banned from Brazil after Elon has refused to comply. And by the way, I mean it's not the most important, it's a comparatively small social media site in Brazil.
There are others that are much more popular. But still this is getting a lot of attention because it is such a political grenade, and that is helping the conservative opposition in Brazil say that individual freedoms are being undermined. And the interesting point here is this is related to the United States. Both sides of the aisle in Brazil just like both sides of the aisle in the United States believe that the other side is a threat to democracy in ways that you don't see in Canada, or the UK, or France, or Germany, or Japan, or South Korea. I would say Brazil is the one major democracy that most feels like the United States in terms of this level of political dysfunction. But what's interesting is that it is the Bolsonaro-led opposition that is using the defense of democracy and liberty to mobilize its base before the 2026 elections. This has historically been much more of a calling card of the left. And in the United States democratic voters care more about the issue of defending democracy as a political issue than Republicans do, in Brazil conservative voters care more about defense of democracy than voters on the left. And this fight that was started by the Supreme Court is playing into that narrative. So interesting, worth talking about, getting a lot of attention. Thought I would throw my own two cents in, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Yes, a January 6 could happen in Brazil ›
- Lula and the new Brazil: big plans, short honeymoon ›
- Lula vs Bolsonaro: A clash of titans in Brazil ›
- Brazil vs. Musk: Now in low Earth orbit ›
- Three ways to look at Brazil’s fight with Elon Musk ›
- Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment? - GZERO Media ›
- Is free speech under attack in Europe? Roberta Metsola weighs in - GZERO Media ›
- How did 'free speech' become a partisan weapon in America? - GZERO Media ›
- Free speech in Trump's America with NYT journalist Jeremy Peters and conservative scholar Ilya Shapiro - GZERO Media ›
Joseph Nyuma Boakai, Liberia's Vice President and presidential candidate of the Unity Party (UP), speaks during a campaign rally in Monrovia, Liberia December 24, 2017.
Hard Numbers: Liberian president cuts his own pay, Myanmar civilian deaths reach record pace, STDs surge among seniors, “Jewelrygate” in Brazil
40: Amid a rising cost-of-living crisis in his country, Liberian President Joseph Boakai, who took office in January, has slashed his own salary by 40%. The gesture of solidarity, which echoes a similar move by his predecessor, will bring his yearly pay down to $8,000. Liberia’s GDP per capita is about $800 a year, among the lowest of any country in the world.
359: Airstrikes by Myanmar’s military junta killed at least 359 civilians between January and April, putting the regime on pace to kill more noncombatants in 2024 than in the previous three years combined. In the three years since it took power in a coup, the junta has been waging war against a patchwork of regional and ethnic militias. The US has tried to sanction the sale of jet fuel to the Myanmar regime, but China and Vietnam have skirted those efforts. For the historical background, see here.
24: Grandma! Grandpa! What are you DOING in there??!! During the pandemic, diagnoses of sexually transmitted diseases among US senior citizens jumped by nearly 24%, new data show. That’s the highest of any age group. And to think, staying inside was supposed to “stop the spread”? (OK, we’ll just stop there.)
1.2 million: Federal police in Brazil say a crime group with links to right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro tried to illegally sell $1.2 million worth of jewels, watches, and other luxury gifts from foreign leaders. The cash was allegedly funneled into accounts controlled by Bolsonaro and his family. The populist Bolsonaro, a one-time political outsider, won the 2018 election in part by promising to tackle Brazil’s rampant corruption, but watchdogs say he was part of the problem.
GZERO Top 5 political animals of 2023
GZERO End-of-the-Year lists: Top 5 political animals of 2023
1. Sally the Sea Lion

Sally the Sea Lion | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
If there haven’t already been children’s books written about Sally the Central Park Sea Lion’s grand day out, there soon will be. In September, unusually heavy rains and flooding helped Sally escape her enclosure to explore other parts of the Central Park Zoo, a favorite for the city’s kids. As zoo workers watched over her, Sally then took a self-guided tour of her surroundings. Sensibly, she decided that Central Park itself is better suited for joggers, cyclists, and weirdos than for sea lions, and she returned to the comforts of her enclosure and the companionship of the other two sea lions who lived there.
2. Cocaine hippos

Cocaine hippos | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Less adorable – and far less trustworthy – are the late Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar’s “cocaine hippos.” Before his predictably violent death in 1993, Escobar had acquired zebras, giraffes, hippos, kangaroos, and rhinoceroses as pets. After his death, most of the animals perished or were moved to zoos. But hippopotamuses are not so easy to handle, so four of them stayed put. By October 2023, they had multiplied, as hippos do, to about 170 roaming freely in the countryside. Colombian officials recently announced plans to sterilize and cull some of them and relocate the rest to sanctuaries overseas. And no, unlike their infamous owner, these hippos aren’t in the drug game — they’ve just won a narcotic nickname.
3. First Dog

First Dog | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Unlike Escobar’s largest pets, President Biden's dog Commander will not be allowed to roam the countryside unattended, but the German shepherd was evicted from his home at the White House in October for attempting to answer an age-old question: Do all Secret Service agents taste the same? In less than two years, Commander has bitten about a dozen people – that we know of. Another Biden family pet, Major, was exiled to Delaware following a number of biting incidents. Commander, like Major, has now retreated from public life.
4. Panda-monium

Panda-monium | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Escalating tensions between the US and China led Beijing to take back its pandas Tian Tian, Mei Xiang, and their cub Xiao Qi Ji from their home in the National Zoo in Washington, DC. The move marks the beginning of the end of Panda Diplomacy between the two countries, with the Atlanta Zoo’s pandas (the last in the US) expected to be returned to China next year. Panda diplomacy began with President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China and Chairman Mao Zedong’s gift of two giant pandas to the United States as a sign of warming bilateral ties. The “gift” agreements, however, stipulate that Beijing still owns the pandas and any of their offspring, which they can take back at any time.
5. Humpback harassment

Bolsonaro whales | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Finally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is enjoying his court-ordered hiatus from politics with a new hobby: Jetskiing around whales. “Captain Chainsaw,” the nickname Bolsonaro earned for his anti-environmental policies and devastation of the Amazon, was spotted on his Jet Ski close to a humpback whale that was showing signs of distress. Adding to his long list of misdeeds on land, Bolsonaro is now under investigation for allegedly harassing a surfacing cetacean.
- Hard Numbers: South China Sea war games, Chinese sour on America, US chipmaking labor shortage, Ya Ya breaks the internet ›
- Hard Numbers: Yeltsin’s defense/undermining of “democracy,” Gaetz's ouster bid, Pandas’ exodus from the US, Bangladesh’s dengue crisis, UK’s minimum wage boost ›
- DOTUS: Dogs of the United States ›
- Why biodiversity loss from climate change matters ›
- Top 10 game changers of 2023 - GZERO Media ›
- 2023 game changers that weren’t - GZERO Media ›