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People walk out of the West Wing of the White House with "The Epstein Files: Phase 1" binders, in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
What We're Watching: Trump under fire for Epstein scandal, Brazil raids Bolsonaro's home, North Korean beaches close to foreigners
Trump, under GOP pressure, orders release of Epstein materials
“Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret,” US President Donald Trump reportedly wrote in a 2003 note to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump says the letter is “fake” and has threatened to sue media mogul Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Journal. But after days of claiming that the Epstein case was a “hoax” – despite promising to publicize the files during his 2024 campaign – Trump instructed the Justice Department to release grand jury testimony from the Epstein prosecution. This falls short of some MAGA demands for the release of all investigative materials, but Trump is under pressure: 62% of Republicans now believe he is hiding Epstein’s “client list.” Could the scandal undermine Trump’s vice-like hold on his own party?
Brazil’s government doubles down against Bolsonaro
Brazilian police on Friday raided the home of former President Jair Bolsonaro and ordered him to wear an ankle bracelet to prevent him from fleeing the country. The rightwing populist is currently on trial for plotting a coup after losing his 2022 re-election bid. The move comes just days after Trump threatened crippling tariffs on Brazil over the “witch hunt” of his pal Bolsonaro. But current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has found that bucking Trump is popular – the leftwing leader’s dismal ratings have leapt as much as 5 points since he shot back at the “gringo” president. Still, Lula must tread carefully: Brazil is deeply polarized and Bolsonaro is popular with as much as 40% of the population.
North Korea closes beaches to foreigners (shucks!)
Just weeks after North Korea unveiled the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone — the summer’s hottest new vacation spot — the government has abruptly closed it to foreigners. No explanation was given. So far, the only tourists allowed in have been Russian. If you were planning to spend your August beachside in North Korea, we hope you booked refundable tickets — and we can at least offer you this banger from Puppet Regime as a consolation prize.
US-Brazil relations in crisis
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down the growing crisis between the US and Brazil, sparked by Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil.
Ian argues Trump’s tariffs are not driven not by trade but by politics.“This is clearly an abuse of executive authority,” Ian says, adding the tariffs have “nothing to do with a national security emergency.” He notes the move targets Brazil over efforts to prosecute former President Jair Bolsonaro and for legislation moving against social media companies.
Ian warns that Trump’s move could backfire badly. “Lula is going to lean into this fight,” he explains, noting it may hurt Bolsonaro’s political chances. Trump’s goal? “Purely a political vendetta… it doesn’t advance the American national interest,” says Ian. He predicts this unprecedented intervention could ultimately “blow up in Trump’s face.”
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky applauds U.S. President Joe Biden during the 78th Session of the U.N. General Assembly.
UN General Assembly debate kickoff
The UN General Assembly debate, where world leaders are given time at the podium to outline their respective global priorities, launched with a bang on Tuesday.
US President Joe Biden spoke to a jam-packed auditorium where he reinforced the US commitment to Ukraine. He also addressed China directly, saying that Washington does not seek to decouple from Beijing but rather to derisk, and emphasized that managing the ensuing rivalry responsibility was his administration's priority.
Meanwhile, Brazil's leftist President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva kicked off by declaring that “Brazil is back,” which is also notably how Biden couched his victory after defeating Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Further evoking comparisons with the US, Lula noted that “Brazil is reconnecting with itself, with the region and with the world” – a dig at his far-right predecessor Jair Bolonsonaro who isolated many Western allies.
Moving to focus on the international arena, Lula also took aim at “permanent members” of the UN Security Council for “waging unauthorized wars” – a likely nod to both Russia for its aggression in Ukraine and the United States for successive military interventions. Indeed, this sentiment encapsulates Lula’s attempt to position himself as a champion of the Global South and its collective interests. As Ian Bremmer noted in a recent interview with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Lula has been pushing a message, shared by others, that the war in Ukraine is largely a European problem and the UN should focus on other issues of global concern.
And Brazil is not alone. Other emerging powers – like South Africa and India – have also made clear that they don’t want to choose between the US and Russia, but rather seek constructive relations with both.
It’s precisely this dilemma – that some observers call political pragmatism while others call it bothsidesism – that was the subtext of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address at the General Assembly.
Wearing his typical olive fatigues, Zelensky seemed more exasperated than at previous global forums – a sign perhaps of his frustration with growing war-weariness, including among allies. The Assembly, it’s worth noting, was also largely empty during his address.
The Ukrainian president will later this week head to Washington amid concerns that Congress might not agree to ratify the White House’s requests to send Kyiv an additional $24 billion in aid. And Kyiv is right to be worried as lawmakers are quite distracted: Republicans are currently wrangling with each other, and with Democrats, on a spending package. If they fail to agree, the subsequent government shutdown would have dire economic consequences.
But Zelensky’s speech took advantage of the global forum. He was mainly pitching to countries in the middle – so-called non-aligned states – that acutely feel the effects of global food disruptions caused by a Russian blockade on Ukrainian ports and Western sanctions on Russian agricultural output. African states, some of which have abstained from previous votes at the UN General Assembly condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, have been particularly hard hit by this supply chain tumult.
On the sidelines of the event, Zelensky met Kenya’s President William Ruto and South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa where, among other things, they discussed the need to resume the now-stalled Black Sea grain deal to ensure global food stability.
Also on the podium on Tuesday was Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi who will be finding an extra $6 billion in the national bank account upon returning home from New York after finalizing a prisoner swap this week with the US that included the release of frozen Iranian oil revenue.
Raisi’s visit, just after the one-year anniversary of the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini that sparked a national women’s and human rights movement – was not without controversy. A large protest attended by some former and current US lawmakers gathered outside the building, calling for the end to the authoritarian Islamic Republic. Though the demonstration was kept away from the UN headquarters by security barriers, the group’s booming chants could be heard well within the grounds.
What’s on deck for tomorrow?
President Zelensky will attend a UN Security Council dedicated to the war waging in his country. More details to follow.
There are two side-conferences to watch as well. The Climate Ambition Summit is meant to revitalize flagging efforts and dampened spirits in the fight against climate change. UN Secretary-General Guterres highlighted it in his recent interview with Ian Bremmer.
The High-Level Dialogue on Financing for Development will also discuss a major factor in climate action, bringing together heads of state and multilateral lenders. The conference aims to untangle some of the financial hurdles toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
An aerial view shows trees as the sun rises at the Amazon rainforest in Manaus, Amazonas State, Brazil.
Lula celebrates big drop in deforestation
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell 66% in August compared to the same month last year – a huge achievement reflecting the ambitious climate goals of President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva. What’s more, cumulative deforestation for the first eight months of 2023 was down 48%.
Lula has staked much of his political capital on environmental priorities, promising to end deforestation by 2030. His administration is using satellites to monitor the forest and sending in police to disrupt illegal logging. The fact that the reductions have come during the Amazonian dry season, when illegal loggers and miners usually take advantage of the weather to push their operations into high gear, is all the more impressive.
Lula also officially recognized two indigenous territories within the forest, granting their inhabitants legal protections from encroachment. Brazil’s indigenous peoples are considered particularly effective custodians of the environment and figure prominently in Lula’s policies.
The bigger, bleaker picture. These efforts, for all their success, are facing headwinds. In June, Brazil’s opposition-controlled legislature rolled back the powers of the environmental and indigenous affairs ministries, and in August, the Senate passed legislation restricting the ability of indigenous people to make land claims, though it faces a Supreme Court challenge.
When leaders from all eight countries that share the Amazon gathered last month, they were able to create a notional alliance to combat deforestation — but they did not agree on goals.
Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres says the “climate breakdown has begun” amid the hottest summer on record, devastating wildfires in the northern hemisphere, collapsing Arctic sea ice, and surging ocean temperatures.
Ecuador's Foreign Minister Gustavo Manrique, Guyana's Prime Minister Mark Phillips, Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Bolivia's President Luis Arce, Peru's President Dina Boluarte, Venezuela's Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and Suriname's Foreign Minister Albert Ramdin at ACTO
Amazon nations can't agree on deforestation goal
Leaders of eight Amazon nations converged in Brazil this week for the first time in 14 years to devise a plan to save the Amazon rainforest, but they appeared to fall short of finding common ground on how to end deforestation.
A joint statement released after the summit implied that countries would set out their own conservation goals rather than adhere to a shared regional policy. There was also no consensus on how to end illegal gold mining in the Amazon.
Ahead of the summit, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva proposed an agreement to end deforestation by 2030.
But a key striking point has been oil exploration. Colombia’s leftist President Gustavo Petro has called for a complete end to oil exploration in the Amazon, which has been a point of contention in Brazil as the country’s state-run Petrobras company has been trying to get a license for an oil drilling project near the Amazon River.
Indeed, ending deforestation comes at a significant cost for Amazon countries, which will have to forgo profits from ranching, agriculture, and new oil and mining projects. Lula says he hopes some of these costs can be offset by international contributions and carbon credits. Norway and Germany are already funding Amazon preservation, and the Amazon nations believe they could convince other countries to contribute if they show a united front -- an effort that appears to have fallen short.
In addition to international contributions, Amazon nations hope to take advantage of the growing carbon market, where an organization that pollutes can buy a credit worth one ton of carbon dioxide, which then goes toward carbon-lowering efforts in Amazonian communities. The World Bank currently estimates that the carbon credit market in the rainforest is worth $210 billion a year.
EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen shakes hands with Brazil's President Lula da Silva in Brasilia.
EU woos Latin America
First, negotiations to ratify a free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, a South American trade bloc, remain stalled. The pact was signed in 2019, but Germany and France still have reservations about Amazon deforestation, which Brazil and Argentina say is unfair and based on mistrust. Meanwhile, Europe is fast losing trade clout to China in Latin America, which could supply many of the critical minerals the Europeans need to depend less on China.
Second, the EU and most of Latin America don't see eye-to-eye on Russia's war in Ukraine. While virtually all of Europe is in the tank for Kyiv, Brazil and Mexico prefer to remain neutral. Summit-loving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky won't be this week in Brussels, where the Europeans will likely hear that they should focus less on doling out weapons to Ukraine and more on pressing Zelensky to negotiate with Russia.
The EU wants to convince Latin America that the two blocs are natural partners. But a stalled trade deal and political bickering over Ukraine are no harbingers of warmer ties to come.
Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro talks with media
Bolsonaro gets benched
Brazil’s electoral court has forbidden former President Jair Bolsonaro from running for public office until 2030. The decision takes a top contender out of the 2026 presidential race after finding Bolsonaro guilty of violating election laws and undermining trust in the country’s electoral system.
Wait, what happened again? Bolsonaro, a far-right populist, rose to power in 2018 by harnessing a conservative “beef, bible, and bullets” voting base. In 2022, he narrowly lost to his left-wing rival, “Lula” da Silva, but not before he had spread baseless claims about problems with Brazil’s voting systems. After he lost, these claims spurred his supporters to storm government offices, hoping to induce a military takeover that would restore Bolsonaro to power.
What does this mean? Depends on whose side you're on. While Lula and the political establishment see the ruling as just punishment for Bolsonaro nearly inciting a coup, Bolsonaro’s followers will perceive it as further evidence that Brazil’s institutions are hopelessly rigged against them. Protests are possible in the coming days.
Making kings from the sidelines. Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula by less than two points, remains the country’s most prominent opposition figure, and his party and its allies have a commanding presence in Brazil’s fractious congress.
While he is likely to appeal the ruling, he has announced that he “won’t push it,” knowing that even if he’s stuck on the bench, he’ll still be able to play a kingmaker role in the upcoming local and presidential elections.
This isn’t Bolsonaro’s only legal headache. He is facing another 15 charges in the electoral court and several criminal investigations related to alleged incitement of his supporters’ riots after the election. Those charges all carry a penalty of disqualification from holding public office as well.
Displaced families from the north of burkina fas.
Hard Numbers: Burkina Faso warns of humanitarian crisis, Afghan girls poisoned at school, Lula unveils Amazon rescue plan, Saudi Arabia makes soccer “sovereign”
2,000: The number of internally displaced people in the West African nation of Burkina Faso has soared by more than 2,000% since 2019 and now surpasses 2 million people. They are mostly women and children who have fled attacks by Islamic extremist groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. The government and aid workers warn of a growing humanitarian crisis.
89: At least 89 schoolgirls and their teachers in Northern Afghanistan appear to have been deliberately poisoned over the weekend. The attacks, which struck two separate schools, underscore the vulnerability of Afghan girls, whose tentatively improving rights and educational opportunities were severely curtailed by the Taliban government when it seized power after the US withdrawal in 2020.
7: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a new plan to end deforestation of the Amazon entirely within seven years. The measures include better tracking and policing of illicit deforestation along with reforestation incentives. Lula, who took office in January, has made the Amazon a priority after his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, overtly neglected rainforest protection. But Brasilia has its work cut out, so to speak: February saw a record for deforestation.
4: The Saudis may be cutting oil production, but they’re looking to boost football output. On Monday, the government gave control over four top domestic teams to its sovereign wealth fund, an investment behemoth with more than $600 billion to splash out on talent. Aging football superstar Cristiano Ronaldo went to the Saudi league earlier this year, and GZERO Daily writer Carlos Santamaria (a die-hard fan of Barcelona) is visibly unnerved about rumors that Lionel Messi may soon join him …