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Protest in Yerevan following Azerbaijani military operation launch in Nagorno-Karabakh.
UN Security Council debates Nagorno-Karabakh
It was a quieter day at UN headquarters on Thursday. With US President Biden back at the White House – accompanied by Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky – the crowds had thinned somewhat and fewer delegates could be found attending the debate in the UN General Assembly hall.
Much of the focus was on the crisis in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, where this week Azerbaijan launched a fresh assault on ethnic-Armenian separatists there, who then reportedly agreed to surrender and disarm as part of a ceasefire. Azerbaijan now looks set to take control of the enclave that's seen decades of conflict.
(For more on the recent flare up and its historical context, see our write up here.)
This was the focus of an urgent UN Security Council meeting called by the Armenian and French delegation on Thursday afternoon. Though they aren’t currently Council members, both Armenia and Azerbaijan attended the session to voice their grievances.
The focus of the Armenian representative reflected a sentiment that has been heard many times throughout the week, namely, that the UN Security Council is broken.
Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan said that the chamber had failed to respond to previous warnings from Yerevan that the Azeris had been upping their attacks on the enclave. Indeed, this came a day after President Zelensky took aim at the Security Council for falling short of its stated mission by letting Russia torpedo efforts to stop the war. (See GZERO's explainer on Instagram on this ensuing debate.)
Despite Karabakh’s acceptance of a ceasefire, shelling continues, Mirzoyan said. The US, for its part, backed this claim, with UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield telling the Council that the “situation on the ground remains dire.”
What’s on deck tomorrow?
Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu will address the Assembly, along with Dutch PM Mark Rutte, Bangladesh’s PM Sheikh Hasina, and Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry.
“Health is a human right”: How the world can make up progress lost to COVID
The state of public health in the developing world bears some deep scars from the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the past three years, immunization rates have dropped to levels not seen in three decades. 2 billion people are facing "catastrophic or impoverishing" health spending worldwide according to the World Health Organization. And governments in the Global South are taking on more and more debt at the expense of investment in health and social services.
Kate Dodson, the Vice President of Global Health Strategy at the UN Foundation, is on the frontlines of the fight to give the most vulnerable people in the world access to proper healthcare. She works to connect experts and innovators with the UN, and find resources to support their work.
She’s calling on governments to invest in basic elements of public health, including primary care access, and properly remunerating healthcare workers — the majority of whom are women, worldwide. And more fundamentally, she wants leaders to treat health as a human right that all deserve to enjoy.
More from Global Stage: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/
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Scared of rogue AI? Keep humans in the loop, says Microsoft's Natasha Crampton
It’s a trope of many a pulpy sci-fi story: Artificial intelligence runs amok, unleashing havoc and chaos on the hubristic humans who made it.
Melodramatic, maybe, but it’s becoming a serious concern with rapid advances in artificial intelligence, and Microsoft’s Chief Responsible AI Officer Natasha Crampton is tasked with keeping these powerful new tools on the rails.
She told GZERO’s Tony Maciulis her team is focused on keeping humans in the decision-making loop, ready to step in should the technology begin displaying unintended behaviors.
But it raises the question of whose hands are on the switch, and what tech companies need to accomplish alongside governments and regulators to ensure a safe environment and level playing field.
See more from Global Stage.
Eddie Ndopu: "People with disabilities need to be in leadership"
As many as 98% of disabled children in the developing world “never see the inside of a classroom” or go to school at all, says Eddie Ndopu. He could have been one of that vast majority. Born in Namibia, he was diagnosed with Spinal Muscular Atrophy and expected to live for only five years. Now 33, Ndopu is a leading advocate for human rights and accessibility for all.
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis caught up with Ndopu at the UN General Assembly this week. The two discussed his role as one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Advocates, a prominent position he shares alongside leaders including Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados, and Microsoft’s Vice Chair and President Brad Smith. He hopes to bring a “fresh” perspective to the discussion of global development and help leaders understand the needs of the most vulnerable people, including those with disabilities.
Ndopu credits his success to his fiercely strong single mother, who never gave up on him despite all odds, and he continues to pay it forward and find new ways to raise awareness of the need for greater inclusion. He describes his recent memoir "Sipping Dom Perignon through a Straw" as “equal parts cheeky and incisive.” Just like him.
More from Global Stage: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/
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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is seen on a video monitor in a booth above the United Nations Security Council floor.
Zelensky takes aim at the UN Security Council
It was another big day at the UN General Assembly. Again, much of the attention centered around Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky who attended a prickly meeting at the UN Security Council.
Ukraine, for its part, is not currently a member of the UNSC, but was invited to attend the session where, sitting across from the Russian Ambassador, Zelensky called Russia a “terrorist state.” Zelensky left the chamber before Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sat down, avoiding a potential confrontation.
Still, much of the Ukrainian president’s speech was directed not at the Russian delegation but at the Security Council itself. He joined the chorus of others calling for urgent reform of the powerful body, arguing that Russia's veto power is undermining the Council's mission. “Ukrainian soldiers are doing with their blood what the UN the Security Council should do by its voting,” he said.
While President Joe Biden said this week in his address before the General Assembly that the US supports such reform efforts, it’s hard to imagine that any of the permanent members of the Council that have the veto power– the US, UK, China, Russia, and France – would be willing to dilute their own clout.
Crucially, Zelensky proposed a change to rules that would allow the UN General Assembly – composed of 193 states – to override UNSC resolutions with a two-thirds majority. But as things are currently structured, that vote itself would be subject to … a UN Security Council veto.
Continuing his shuttle-diplomacy efforts, Zelensky met with Chile’s President Gabriel Boric, where he said the two discussed the prospect of coordinating a Ukraine-Latin America summit. Boric’s embrace of Zelensky has been notably different from other Latin American states, including Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, that have in fact abstained from at least one UN resolution condemning Russian aggression.
Finally, Zelensky also met with his German counterpart Chancellor Olaf Scholz in what was broadly seen as an attempt to get Berlin to earmark more military aid for Kyiv.
Another interesting side meeting took place between Biden and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. It was hardly the White House meeting Bibi had been hoping for – particularly after the Biden side released a cool statement saying the two had a “candid and constructive” conversation on issues including “upholding our democratic values.” This was likely a nod to the White House’s disapproval of the Israeli government’s current attempt to gut the power of the independent judiciary that’s led to some of the biggest protests in Israel on record.
Still, in the broader realm of geopolitics it was a pretty good day for Bibi: On Wednesday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a rare interview to FOX News where he said that Israel and Saudi were inching close to a normalization deal, a huge foreign policy priority for the Netanyahu government.
Clean energy sources amid a futuristic landscape.
The false trade-off between climate action and economic growth
World leaders are flooding New York this week for the 78th United Nations General Assembly and Climate Week NYC, less than two months before the landmark COP28, the UN Climate Change Conference, is set to begin in Dubai. With climate being at the top of the agenda and top of mind, I thought I’d use today’s newsletter to debunk a myth that pervades an annoying amount of climate doomerism.
Most climate change discussions frame the issue in cost-benefit terms. Would we rather save the planet or keep our living standards? Save the planet or increase profits? Save the planet or lift people out of poverty? In other words, how much are we willing to sacrifice to stop climate change?
In rich countries like the US, both sides of the aisle assume this tradeoff between climate action and economic prosperity exists. The difference between them is that most of the political right wants to prioritize growth at the expense of climate action, while the “de-growth” and anti-capitalist parts of the left want to halt growth for the sake of climate action.
Meanwhile, the consensus in developing nations – which today account for two-thirds of global carbon emissions but are only responsible for about one-fifth of historical emissions – is that poorer countries have the right (indeed, the obligation) to put economic development above climate action. This view is also premised on the assumption that economic growth can only be powered by fossil fuels, and therefore, that saving the planet requires economic sacrifice.
But that is a false dilemma. In 2023, there is no longer a systemic trade-off between decarbonization and economic growth.
A technological revolution in the making
The reason for this is that technological advances have made clean energy – especially solar power, wind power, and battery storage – cheaper than fossil fuels.
Until quite recently, high-polluting fossil fuels (especially coal) were by far the cheapest sources of energy available. Renewables didn’t come close. But in the past decade, the unsubsidized price of electricity from solar and wind declined by 89% and 69%, respectively. And the cost of lithium-ion batteries – which are needed to smooth out the intermittent supply of solar and wind energy – has declined by 90%. As a result, new solar power plants have gone from being 710% more expensive than the cheapest fossil-fueled plants in 2010 to being 29% cheaper now, and new onshore wind plants have gone from being 95% more expensive to being 52% cheaper than the cheapest fossil-fueled plants in the same period.
Today, when you compare the lifetime cost of building and operating new power plants, renewable energy sources like solar and wind are already the cheapest options for most of the world. In some places, building new solar and wind plants is even cheaper than keeping existing coal plants running!
This price advantage explains why the world’s largest carbon emitters are quickly moving away from coal and toward wind and solar power, and why renewable power has more than tripled as a share of global power generation in the last decade. In Europe, wind and solar generate more power than coal and gas. And solar, wind, and battery storage account for 82% of planned generating capacity additions in the US this year.
Interests trump politics
A common refrain is that these renewable technologies are being forced on unwilling Americans and Europeans by woke politicians and activists. But ask yourself, why would countries like China and India, states like Texas and Florida, and companies like BP and Total be building so much solar, wind, and battery storage capacity if not out of self-interest?
China and India certainly have little inclination to make national sacrifices for the planet’s benefit. Texas and Florida are Republican bastions — not exactly tree-huggers. And, like all corporations, BP and Total seek to maximize profits for shareholders. If you think Greta Thunberg is pushing developing countries as diverse as Brazil, Chile, Vietnam, India, and Morocco to deploy solar power at scale, I’ve got a coal mine to sell you…
The truth is that the world is adopting clean energy because it’s cheaper than the alternative. Even countries and companies that don’t care about climate change at all are finding it worthwhile to switch to renewables. And thanks to these technologies’ uniquely steep learning curves, the more they get deployed, the cheaper they’ll become, and the cheaper they become, the more they’ll get adopted everywhere.
At the same time that the increased adoption of renewables will reduce carbon emissions and deadly pollution, falling energy prices will lead to a rise in real incomes and standards of living. The advent of cheap, abundant, and widely available energy will free up income for people to spend on other things and allow poor countries to turbocharge their development while leapfrogging fossil fuels. If it sounds like a win-win, it’s because it is.
The invisible hand still needs a policy push
Although technological ingenuity and self-interest are making the energy transition an unstoppable reality, these forces alone aren’t enough to get the world all the way to net zero emissions in time to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.
For starters, there are still powerful vested interests and inertia holding back decarbonization, despite its increasingly obvious economic advantages. Many actors with political pull benefit from the carbon-intensive status quo, which generates up to $2 trillion in economic rents every year. These incumbents – ranging from petrostates and Big Oil to retail gas stations and fossil fuel workers – are fighting tooth and nail to slow down the energy transition and latch on to their power. Moreover, fossil fuels still make up 77% of the world’s energy production, and for now the cost of operating existing fossil fuel plants is lower than the cost of building new renewable plants in most (but not all) places. Absent policy action, that will remain the case for some years yet.
Then there’s the fact that electricity – the problem that solar, wind, and batteries solve – only accounts for about 40% of global carbon emissions. Cutting the remaining 60% will require addressing the other sources of emissions: transportation, commercial and residential buildings, and industrial processes. Some of this can be achieved by electrifying more of our energy use – like we are already doing by switching to electric vehicles, heat pumps, and induction stoves – while continuing to decarbonize electricity. But some – such as greening harder-to-abate, heat-intensive processes like cement and steel production – will require investment and incentives to invent, develop, and adopt new technological solutions.
Finally, while switching to renewables pays for itself in the long run, building new infrastructure while retiring fossil-fuel assets early can bring large upfront costs. This problem is especially acute for developing nations, which will generate most of the demand for new electricity in the coming decades but lack the fiscal space and access to long-term finance needed to meet the upfront costs of deploying clean energy systems. It’s in these countries’ economic interest to lock in low-carbon infrastructure now rather than get stuck with fossil-fuel assets that are already being phased out in the developed world and will be stranded in a matter of years. But they will need massive financing from rich countries to do that.
The bottom line is that although there’s a lot governments can do to help speed up the energy transition, even without government action the transition is most definitely happening. And it is happening without a reduction in our living standards. You don’t have to stop driving or ration electricity or eat bugs. Poor countries don’t have to stay poor. The opposite is true: stopping climate change will make most everyone richer.
That’s great news because if the fate of the planet depended on everyone agreeing to voluntarily impoverish themselves, you can bet your sweet bippy humanity would be 100% cooked.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky applauds U.S. President Joe Biden during the 78th Session of the U.N. General Assembly.
UN General Assembly debate kickoff
The UN General Assembly debate, where world leaders are given time at the podium to outline their respective global priorities, launched with a bang on Tuesday.
US President Joe Biden spoke to a jam-packed auditorium where he reinforced the US commitment to Ukraine. He also addressed China directly, saying that Washington does not seek to decouple from Beijing but rather to derisk, and emphasized that managing the ensuing rivalry responsibility was his administration's priority.
Meanwhile, Brazil's leftist President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva kicked off by declaring that “Brazil is back,” which is also notably how Biden couched his victory after defeating Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Further evoking comparisons with the US, Lula noted that “Brazil is reconnecting with itself, with the region and with the world” – a dig at his far-right predecessor Jair Bolonsonaro who isolated many Western allies.
Moving to focus on the international arena, Lula also took aim at “permanent members” of the UN Security Council for “waging unauthorized wars” – a likely nod to both Russia for its aggression in Ukraine and the United States for successive military interventions. Indeed, this sentiment encapsulates Lula’s attempt to position himself as a champion of the Global South and its collective interests. As Ian Bremmer noted in a recent interview with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Lula has been pushing a message, shared by others, that the war in Ukraine is largely a European problem and the UN should focus on other issues of global concern.
And Brazil is not alone. Other emerging powers – like South Africa and India – have also made clear that they don’t want to choose between the US and Russia, but rather seek constructive relations with both.
It’s precisely this dilemma – that some observers call political pragmatism while others call it bothsidesism – that was the subtext of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address at the General Assembly.
Wearing his typical olive fatigues, Zelensky seemed more exasperated than at previous global forums – a sign perhaps of his frustration with growing war-weariness, including among allies. The Assembly, it’s worth noting, was also largely empty during his address.
The Ukrainian president will later this week head to Washington amid concerns that Congress might not agree to ratify the White House’s requests to send Kyiv an additional $24 billion in aid. And Kyiv is right to be worried as lawmakers are quite distracted: Republicans are currently wrangling with each other, and with Democrats, on a spending package. If they fail to agree, the subsequent government shutdown would have dire economic consequences.
But Zelensky’s speech took advantage of the global forum. He was mainly pitching to countries in the middle – so-called non-aligned states – that acutely feel the effects of global food disruptions caused by a Russian blockade on Ukrainian ports and Western sanctions on Russian agricultural output. African states, some of which have abstained from previous votes at the UN General Assembly condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, have been particularly hard hit by this supply chain tumult.
On the sidelines of the event, Zelensky met Kenya’s President William Ruto and South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa where, among other things, they discussed the need to resume the now-stalled Black Sea grain deal to ensure global food stability.
Also on the podium on Tuesday was Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi who will be finding an extra $6 billion in the national bank account upon returning home from New York after finalizing a prisoner swap this week with the US that included the release of frozen Iranian oil revenue.
Raisi’s visit, just after the one-year anniversary of the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini that sparked a national women’s and human rights movement – was not without controversy. A large protest attended by some former and current US lawmakers gathered outside the building, calling for the end to the authoritarian Islamic Republic. Though the demonstration was kept away from the UN headquarters by security barriers, the group’s booming chants could be heard well within the grounds.
What’s on deck for tomorrow?
President Zelensky will attend a UN Security Council dedicated to the war waging in his country. More details to follow.
There are two side-conferences to watch as well. The Climate Ambition Summit is meant to revitalize flagging efforts and dampened spirits in the fight against climate change. UN Secretary-General Guterres highlighted it in his recent interview with Ian Bremmer.
The High-Level Dialogue on Financing for Development will also discuss a major factor in climate action, bringing together heads of state and multilateral lenders. The conference aims to untangle some of the financial hurdles toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
Watch our livestream: Reimagining Tomorrow: LIVE from the UN General Assembly
The climate crisis looms large, affecting at least 3.3 billion people directly. In 2023 alone, almost 340 million individuals need emergency support globally, over 100 million are displaced in search of sustainable refuge, and the shadow of hunger extends to more than 230 million people. How can we leverage technological breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI), analytics, and data ecosystems to shape a more resilient and optimistic tomorrow?
Watch our virtual livestream, Reimagining Tomorrow: Breakthroughs in Data and AI for a More Resilient World, LIVE from the United Nations General Assembly on September 21 at 10 am ET. Hosted by GZERO Media in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative, the event will bring together global leaders and change-makers to envision a world where the power of data, analytics, and AI is harnessed to pave the way for a sustainable and resilient future.
This special conversation will be moderated by Nick Thompson, CEO, The Atlantic; and feature Melinda Bohannon, Director General of Humanitarian and Development at the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office; Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Vilas Dhar, President and Trustee, Patrick J. McGovern Foundation; Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of International Crisis Group; Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction; Amina Mohammed, UN Deputy Secretary-General; Amandeep Singh Gill, UN Envoy on Technology; Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President, Microsoft; Axel van Trostenburg, World Bank Managing Director; Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of International Crisis Group; and Anne Witkowsky, Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations at the U.S. Department of State.
LIVE from the United Nations General Assembly
Reimagining Tomorrow: Breakthroughs in Data and AI for a More Resilient World
Thursday, September 21, 10am ET
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