<p><strong>What's the background? </strong>For years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">at odds</a> over the rugged highlands of Nagorno-Karabakh. In the dying days of the USSR, the two sides fought a bloody six-year war to control the enclave, which was part of Muslim-majority Azerbaijan but mainly populated by ethnic Armenian Christians.</p><p>The conflict ended in 1994 with over 30,000 dead, more than one million displaced, and a fragile truce that left Nagorno-Karabakh as a <em>de facto</em> independent state, supported by Armenia but not recognized by other countries, including Azerbaijan. <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan/nagorno-karabakh-risks-new-escalation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Low-level clashes</a> have persisted ever since — including <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/04/05/how-the-crisis-over-nagorno-karabakh-could-get-worse-fast/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">deadly skirmishes in 2016</a> — and both governments often use the conflict to stoke nationalist flames at home.</p><p><strong>Although the trigger for the latest violence is still unclear, bilateral tensions have been rising</strong> since mid-July, when 16 soldiers <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/what-were-watching-uk-ditches-huawei-bolivia-becomes-covid-hotspot-caucasus-clashes-erupt" target="_self">died</a> in border clashes. That violence sparked an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53415693" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">uproar in Azerbaijan</a>, where thousands of Azeris took to the streets calling for the army to "recapture" Nagorno-Karabakh. Now, both sides are accusing each other of throwing the first punch, and have <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/armenia-azerbaijan-declare-martial-law-amid-heavy-clashes-in-nagorno-karabakh/a-55068321" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">declared</a> martial law.</p><p><strong>A war over the enclave would resonate far beyond the region.</strong> The South Caucasus, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are located, has enormous <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/nagorno-karabakh-explainer-conflict-azerbaijan-armenia/27656158.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">strategic importance</a> because it is crossed by two major energy pipelines that carry Azeri oil and Caspian Sea gas to Turkey and Europe.</p><p><strong>Two outside players — Turkey and Russia — are on opposite sides of the conflict. </strong>Turkey has close relations with fellow Turkic Azerbaijan, and historically there is little love lost between Ankara and the Armenians. Moreover, Azerbaijan is Turkey's main oil supplier. Turkey has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-azerbaijan-turkey-syria-idUSKBN26J25A" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">denied</a> reports that it has sent 4,000 Syrians to fight on behalf of the Azeri army, but Turkish President Recep Erdogan's moves here merit close attention.</p><p>Russia is the dominant player in the region. But although it sells weapons to both Azerbaijan and Armenia, Moscow keeps troops garrisoned in Armenia and is, technically, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/Russian_President_Medvedev_To_Visit_Armenia/2131915.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">treaty-bound</a> to defend the country. If things escalate further, Vladimir Putin will have to decide whether to honor that obligation. Doing so could quickly put Ankara and Moscow on opposite sides of another nasty war (they <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-conflict-in-libya-whos-who-and-how-did-we-get-here" target="_self">already back different sides</a> of the civil war in Libya.)</p><p><strong>Finally, Iran also has a stake.</strong> It borders both countries, and Azeris are Iran's largest ethnic minority. Although <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan/shifting-dangers-nagorno-karabakh" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" title="https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan/shifting-dangers-nagorno-karabakh">Tehran</a> has traditionally backed Yerevan, and often bickers with Baku over energy and security in the Caspian Sea, the Iranians <a href="https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/450134/Iran-says-ready-to-mediate-between-Azerbaijan-and-Armenia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" title="https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/450134/Iran-says-ready-to-mediate-between-Azerbaijan-and-Armenia">offered</a> to mediate when the latest tensions began two months ago. Will they try again now?</p>
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