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Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during an interview with Reuters in Belgrade, Serbia, September 28, 2023.
Kosovo and Serbia to restart talks
Well, even as one of the world’s most intractable conflicts gets steadily worse, there’s at least a chance that another will get slightly better. This Saturday, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo will meet with US and EU officials to try to revive peace talks.
It will be the first time the two have met since tensions spiked last month due to a deadly shootout between Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo and local Kosovar police officers. Kosovo accused Serbia of plotting the attack, while Belgrade briefly mobilized its troops to the border before backing down under US pressure.
Background: Albanian-majority Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, after a decade of war and Serbian attempts at ethnic cleansing. Serbia, which considers Kosovo part of its ancestral heartland, doesn’t recognize the Kosovar government – nor do ethnic Serb communities living in northern Kosovo.
The talks will aim to revive an EU-brokered peace framework that envisions de facto recognition of Kosovo in exchange for Kosovo giving broad autonomy to Serbs in the north.
There is a strong incentive to make progress: The EU will soon begin meetings on enlarging the union. Serbia and Kosovo both want in, but Brussels has been clear that it can’t happen until they make peace.
For more on the “dangerous limbo” of Serbia-Kosovo relations, see our explainer here.
FILE PHOTO: Kosovo police officers patrol, in the aftermath of a shooting incident, in Banjska village, Kosovo September 27, 2023.
Is Serbia really about to do something extreme in Kosovo?
Things are getting hot again between Serbia and Kosovo. The US and NATO have both sounded the alarm after a recent gun battle between Kosovo police and Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo left several people dead, prompting what the White House called an “unprecedented” buildup of Serbian troops along the Kosovo border.
The background, briefly: In 2008, after nearly 20 years of conflict, majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, with US backing. But many ethnic Serbs who still live in Northern Kosovo reject the legitimacy of the Kosovar government, which Serbia itself has never recognized. The outlines of a Serbia-Kosovo agreement call for Kosovo to grant autonomy to ethnic Serb areas. Clashes have periodically erupted over local elections and even license plates.
Is a wider war coming? Kosovo says Serbia is poised to invade Kosovo in what would be an eerie echo of Azerbaijan’s shock move against Nagorno-Karabakh last week — i.e., a long-running ethnic dispute in which the stronger party makes a move while the EU and US are distracted by Ukraine. And yet, over the weekend, Belgrade drew down its forces along the border after getting an earful from both Brussels and Washington.
That’s because Serbia has another interest at stake too. It still wants to see progress on its decade-old EU accession bid when the Union meets to discuss enlargement this winter. Although Serbian views on membership are split, and Belgrade’s cozy Russia ties are a further complication, President Alexander Vučić knows that invading Kosovo would be suicidal for any EU hopes.
But there’s a catch there too: Neither Serbia nor Kosovo — which has also applied to join — has any hope of getting into the EU until they resolve their own conflict first, a prospect that does not look promising at the moment.
Kosovo-Serbia tensions worsen, hurting EU membership hopes
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Stockholm.
Are Serbia and Kosovo heading towards a confrontation?
It looks very bad. What happened in northern Kosovo the other day was distinctly bad. A collection of fairly well-armed and well-organized Serb thugs did an operation that was eventually beaten back by Kosovo police. It follows a cycle of escalation that was initiated on the Kosovo side, has to be said, last year, and has not been brought under control by rather intense diplomacy, both by the Europeans and by the Americans. At the moment, things look very bleak. This, of course, is damaging the EU integration prospects for both Serbia and Kosovo. Let's see what happens.
How can the EU react to what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Well, it was a very blatant military operation by the Azeris that sort of captured, de facto destroyed the autonomous functions of Nagorno-Karabakh. And it has encouraged, or forced, however you want to phrase it, practically all of the Armenians to evacuate in the direction of Armenia. It’s a huge political and humanitarian tragedy. How we can respond remains to be seen at the moment. It's very much a question of trying to alleviate the horrible humanitarian consequences.
Police officers patrol in the aftermath of a shooting, at the road to Banjska village, Kosovo September 24, 2023.
Trouble brews in the Balkans
Is Europe’s tinderbox once again set to explode?
Tensions are running high in Kosovo after three people were killed in a gun battle in a monastery in Leposavic, near the Serbian border. About thirty armed men stormed the building following a battle with police at a road blockade near the village of Banska, in which one officer was killed. Police managed to regain control of the monastery, arrested 6 gunmen, and found "an “extraordinarily large amount of weaponry and ammunition, explosives.”
According to Prime Minister Albin Kurti, police were attacked by "professionals, with military and police background" and police said they had used "an arsenal of firearms, including hand grenades and shoulder-fired missiles.” Kurti blamed "Serbia-sponsored criminals" for the attack. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucicspoke later on Sunday, condemned the attack but accused the Kosovo authorities of “brutal” treatment of the Kosovo Serbs.
Violence has been escalating following the Kosovo government’s decision to install ethnic Albanian mayors in four Serb-majority municipalities in May. Demonstrations ensued, including one in which thirty NATO peacekeepers were injured.
This latest incident comes one week after EU-mediated talks designed to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province ended in stalemate. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, a decade after a bloody war with Serbia that claimed 10,000 lives, but Belgrade has since refused to recognize the country.
As a means of cooling the temperature, Brussels warned both countries that unless they put their differences aside and abide by the EU’s ten-point plan to end the latest round of tensions, they will not be allowed entry into the EU. If what happened this weekend is any indication, however, that goal is still a long way off.
Nervous mood in Russia after drone strikes
Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics (this week from Stockholm).
Will recent drone attacks in Moscow lead to Russian escalation in Ukraine?
I think there's nervousness in Moscow. The drone attacks have been, Putin was trying to play down. He couldn't do very much else. He said our defenses are working, but nothing was perfect. I think there's also nervousness on what might happen on the battlefront. What are Ukrainians up to? Will there be some sort of success in some sort of Ukrainian offensive? A nervous mood, we don't know. The inclination of Putin is always to escalate whenever he can.
Are Serbia-Kosovo relations deteriorating into another conflict?
Well, we are not heading to a new war, but we are clearly heading towards, or we are in a fairly rapid deterioration of the situation. There was a breakthrough in negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo a couple of months ago in Ohrid. It was difficult to move forward on that. It was difficult to move forward also on the measures that needs to be taken on the ground, but that it was moves taken primarily by Pristina that led to the clash that we've seen in northern Kosovo. And now the situation is deteriorating fairly rapidly. NATO's deploying additional forces, but it will require some fairly robust diplomacy to get things back to track. Let's hope for the best but be prepared for something else.
NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) soldiers clash with local Kosovo Serb protesters
Kosovo flareups intensify
NATO is deploying additional troops to its peacekeeping mission in Northern Kosovo after clashes with local ethnic Serb protesters on Monday left dozens injured on both sides.
The Balkan backgrounder: Majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a decade after Serbia waged a brutal war to crush Kosovo’s autonomy. But neither Serbia nor the ethnic Serbian majority in Northern Kosovo recognize Kosovo’s independence.
As a result, in the years since, tensions have often flared over which government is legitimate in the area, and a peace deal that would give local Serbs autonomy has never been implemented. Nearly 4,000 NATO peacekeepers are still stationed in Kosovo to keep things in check.
The latest flare-up: In April, Kosovo held local elections in Northern Kosovo that were boycotted by the local ethnic Serb majority. Over the weekend, the ethnic-Albanian officials who won those votes moved into their offices. Serb protesters tried to block them but were dispersed by Kosovar riot police and NATO troops in clashes that injured at least 30 peacekeepers and 50 protesters.
Serbia is now putting its own troops on alert to defend ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, while Belgrade’s traditional allies in Moscow have blamed Kosovo and the West for the crisis. The US and EU have called for de-escalation, but Washington, normally a strong backer of Kosovo, has also criticized the Kosovan government’s decision to install the ethnic-Albanian officials over Serb objections.
More protests are scheduled for Wednesday…
Protesters against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's plan to reform the electoral authority, in Mexico City, Mexico, February 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Mexicans protest AMLO changes, North Korea seeks grain, Iran hearts Ipanema, a controversial kiss from Kosovo
500,000 or 90,000?: How many people in Mexico City took part in recent mass protests against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s overhaul of the electoral system? Organizers say 500,000 turned out to oppose the changes, which would weaken independent election oversight. But authorities in Mexico City, which is controlled by AMLO’s party, say it was only 90,000.
1 million: North Korea is estimated to be short at least 1 million tons of grain right now because of mismanagement and pandemic-related interruptions of imports from China. That’s equal to about one-fifth of the Hermit Kingdom’s annual consumption. In the past, North Korea has suffered famines so bad that people were forced to eat grass and tree bark.
2: Brazil’s government allowed two Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend, despite demands from the US to turn them away. The move is a reminder that although Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Joe Biden may see eye to eye on a lot, Lula’s perspective — in line with much of the Global South — often differs from Washington’s on key issues such as China, Iran, and Ukraine.
3: The young Kosovo artist Ermira Murati has gotten thousands of threats over her striking, 3-meter tall painting of Kosovo PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic kissing. The two leaders, who famously despise each other, are meeting early this week in Brussels to try to reach a peace deal. Here’s our recent piece on why that’s so hard to do. And, while we’re kissing in the former Eastern bloc, here’s one of the greatest smooches of the 20th century.Commuters ride a subway train during the morning rush hour in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: China’s open door, sticky US border policy, Iran’s “mercy” deficit, Kosovo’s creeping crisis, Nepal’s “Terrible” new top dog
China’s COVID opening worries the neighbors
China’s National Health Commission announced on Monday that beginning January 8, travelers entering China will no longer be required to quarantine for eight days. Hong Kong followed the mainland by similarly relaxing testing requirements for international arrivals. It’s the latest signal that China has abandoned its zero-COVID lockdown-intensive policy, despite evidence the virus is now sweeping through a country where millions remain unvaccinated and even larger numbers have been jabbed only with less effective Chinese-made vaccines. An announcement last week that China will change the way it counts COVID deaths had led to anxiety elsewhere that Beijing has decided it can no longer contain new infections, that the economic cost of its zero-COVID approach is too high, and that it will now hide the true number of infections and deaths across the country to weather domestic and international criticism of its handling of the virus. This worry will feed the fear that much higher rates of transmission across this country of 1.4 billion people will help the virus mutate, spawning new variants that again infect people around the world. It’s no wonder then that Japan’s government has announced that, beginning Friday, it will tighten border controls for all travelers entering Japan from China, while the US is also mulling restrictions for Chinese arrivals.
SCOTUS: Title 42 stays … for now
The legal rigmarole surrounding Title 42 will continue after the US Supreme Court ruled in a 5-4 decision on Tuesday that the Trump-era law can remain in place while appeals make their way through the courts. Quick recap: Title 42 was invoked by the Trump administration in 2020 and allows the US to expel migrants without processing their asylum applications on public health grounds. The highest court in the land agreed to take up the legal appeal being pushed by GOP-led states when it resumes hearing arguments in February 2023. The court’s three liberal justices ruled against the measure, as did Trump-appointed Justice Neil Gorsuch, who dissented on the grounds that “the current border crisis is not a COVID crisis.” The Biden administration, for its part, is likely not too displeased with the ruling. After all, it helps avoids an influx of migrants at the southern border, and Biden can appease progressives with the fact that he tried to ditch a policy many of them deem discriminatory. For now, asylum-seekers will continue to be deported without having their claims heard.
“No mercy” in Iran
The anti-government protests that have now rocked Iran for more than 100 days, the most intense since the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, show no sign of abating, and Iran’s leaders show no sign of softening their response to them. On Tuesday, Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s president, announced that his government will show “no mercy toward those who are hostile” toward their government’s right to rule. International rights groups estimate that more than 500 people have been killed since protests began. An estimated 18,400 have been arrested. Two have been executed, and nine others have so far been sentenced to death. The protests began after a young Kurdish Iranian woman was arrested by morality police for violating a regime-enforced dress code and died in custody. As they have following large-scale protests in the past, Iranian officials accuse foreign governments of feeding the unrest.
Kosovo crisis escalates
Serbia has placed its military on high alert amid rising tensions between ethnic Serbs and the government in neighboring Albanian-majority Kosovo. Meanwhile, ongoing protests on Wednesday prompted Kosovo to shut its main border crossing with Serbia. The center of the action is the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica, in northern Kosovo. Earlier this year, Serbs there refused to adopt Kosovo license plates and set up barricades to keep Kosovar authorities out of their areas. In recent weeks, things have gotten worse with more roadblocks and exchanges of gunfire between Mitrovica Serbs and local police. Kosovo’s government says Serbia, with backing from its friends in Moscow, is deliberately stirring up trouble in the country. Belgrade says it’s merely protecting its ethnic kin across the border. The background? Serbs consider Kosovo their historical heartland, but for centuries the region has been populated chiefly by Albanians who consider it home. In 2008, Kosovo declared independence from Serbia after surviving a brutal 1998-1999 assault by Belgrade. The US and most Western European countries recognize that independence, but a number of countries, including Brazil, China, India, and Russia, do not. The EU has, as usual, called for an elusive calm. No one in Belgrade or Mitrovica seems to be listening.
Nepal’s “Terrible” new Prime Minister
Following a fierce scrum of politicking in the wake of November’s election, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a former Maoist guerrilla, has been appointed Nepal’s prime minister. Dahal — who still goes by his nom de guerre Prachanda, meaning “terrible” or “fierce” — led an insurgency that overthrew the country’s Hindu monarchy 15 years ago. At the time, the establishment of a republic sowed hopes for opportunity and change in one of Asia’s poorest countries. But after seeing 13 governments in the past 14 years, many Nepalese aren’t optimistic about Prachanda’s ability to move the country forward — he has already been PM twice himself. Outside of Nepal, Prachanda will find himself enmeshed in a growing struggle for influence between Nepal’s traditional partners in India, a China that is trying to curry favor by investing in infrastructure, and the US, which has tried to blunt Beijing’s advance with its own recent $500 million investment pledge.