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French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Greek Prime Minister Kiriakos Mitsotakis stand together during NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2024.
Does NATO need to be “Trump-proofed”?
Although Donald Trump isn’t present at the NATO summit this week, his name is everywhere at the event, where the world’s most powerful military alliance is preparing for the (very real) possibility that he could be back in the White House next year.
Trump, of course, hasrepeatedly said that the US should not protect members who do not meet NATO’s guidance of paying 2% of their GDP on defense. That’s a threat that would violate the alliance’s most basic mutual defense obligations. He has alsoquestioned sending military aid to Kyiv and has favored closer relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
To protect the alliance against all of that – Trump-proofing some would say – NATO leaders are taking some steps. For one thing, they have appointed Mark Rutte as the new secretary general – largely because leaders saw the former Dutch PM, who is a veteran of transatlantic politics, expressed a willingness to work with Trump when campaigning for the job. And they have moved majorelements of military aid for Ukraine – from funding to training – away from US command to the NATO umbrella.
But they have also taken steps to address Trump’s primary concern: “freeloading” in NATO. A record 23 of the 32 NATO countries will reach the 2% spending target this year, more than twice as many as in 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is largely to thank for that – an aggressive Kremlin has concentrated minds in Europe – but it’s impossible to ignore Trump’s encouragement of Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members delinquent on defense dues.
The Trump administration’s rhetoric was a wake-up call to European allies, according to NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana. “They were saying, listen European allies, we just cannot continue for you to thrive under our protection. And now I think it's a more balanced relationship,” he told GZERO’s Emilie Macfie at the summit on Wednesday.
As it happens, the NATO members closest to the Russian bear seem surprisingly unflustered by the prospect of Trump 2.0.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda and the defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – all of which share a prickly border with Russia – told GZERO during a meeting with Baltic defense ministers during the NATO summit that under Trump the US increased its military presence in Poland and the Baltics.
The Baltic defense ministers, meanwhile, said that Trump was right to call out NATO spending laggards, and why not: All of the Baltic nations are spending above2%, and Poland leads the alliance at4.1%.
In short: They aren’t the problem, so they aren’t worried – and they are confident that they can communicate that in terms that Trump can understand.
“Trump is a golfer and NATO is a club,” said Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur in response to whether Baltic nations fear Trump regaining power. “When you pay the fee in the golf club, you can play.”
As Russia gains ground in Ukraine, Baltic states worry the war will spread west
In recent weeks, Russia has captured territory in the east and southeast of Ukraine at its fastest pace since the early days of the invasion. A six-month delay in the US sending critical military aid to Kyiv allowed Russia a window of opportunity to make significant advances. Now, military experts fear the war could spread westward to the Baltic states, bringing the specter of war to NATO’s backyard.
On GZERO World, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder joins Ian Bremmer from Tallinn, Estonia, for an update on the mood right now in the Baltic region. Government officials in Estonia say they are worried because it’s clear that Russia, by extension, Vladimir Putin, has realized that their survival depends on a permanent mobilization of the country for war, which the Russian economy is now dependent on for growth. Should Ukraine fall or take serious losses, the war could move past the border and into the Baltics, which are members of NATO. As a former Soviet country, Estonia keenly understands what it’s like to be dominated by Moscow and what it would mean for other NATO allies if Ukraine fell.
“Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, countries on the front line are saying, the United States and Germany need to wake up,” Daalder explains, “This war that you don’t want to fight, it’s right here, right now being fought in Ukraine.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Is Ukraine running out of time? Former US ambassador Ivo Daalder sizes up the Russia-Ukraine war
Listen: Could the last six months be the most pivotal months of the entire Russia/Ukraine war? Over two years into the conflict, Russia is closer to victory in Ukraine than ever before, according to former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. He joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast from Tallinn, Estonia, mere miles from the Russian border.
How much is this battlefield mismatch due to a delay in US support? A big part of it, says Daalder. “Congress refusing to act on the requests that the president first made back in July…and nothing happening until mid-April” was a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses, Daalder says. “And now it just takes time to get stuff to the Front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happen.”
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Ian Explains: What the war in Ukraine looks like inside Russia ›
- Ukraine waits for help as Russia advances ›
- Will China end Russia’s war? ›
- Ukraine will define the future of NATO ›
- Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war? - GZERO Media ›
- At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Will Ukraine ever negotiate with Russia? - GZERO Media ›
Model of natural gas pipeline and Finland flag, July 18, 2022.
Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit!
NATO on Wednesday pledged a “determined” response if recent damage to a critical pipeline linking two of its members is found to have been deliberate.
Earlier this week, the Balticconnector undersea gas and data pipeline between Finland and Estonia suffered interruptions in what local authorities suggested was an intentional attack.
The 100-mile-long pipeline, which traverses the Baltic Sea, opened in 2019 to better integrate Baltic energy markets. It can send gas in either direction between Finland and Estonia depending on their needs.
Finland is NATO’s newest member, having joined the defense alliance in April. The country halted Russian gas imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, making the Balticconnector its only source of the fuel, which accounts for about 5% of Finland’s total energy mix.
Investigators are reviewing recent ship activity in the region. Russia on Wednesday mused that it was “disturbed” by the incident. If a state actor is suspected, NATO will have to determine a response that is firm but proportionate.
The incident comes, of course, barely a year after the apparent sabotage of the Russia-Germany Nord Stream gas pipeline at a Baltic Sea location about 500 miles southwest of the Balticcoonnector. That mystery remains unsolved.
Estonia's digital revolution: a global model of efficiency
In a recent GZERO livestream event presented by Visa, Carmen Raal, a digital transformation advisor and expert from e-Estonia, shared some remarkable insights into the nation's digital transformation. Estonia, often hailed as a digital pioneer, has undergone a profound digitalization process that sets it apart on the global stage. Carmen explained that 99.99% of Estonia’s public services are accessible online, which includes a strong collaboration between the nations’ public and private sectors. Raal points out how this unique partnership has created solutions that are versatile and user-friendly. One example is Estonia's electronic identity and signature system which isn't limited to government use; it extends to online banking across all banks in Estonia.
The emphasis on simplicity has been key to encouraging widespread adoption of digital solutions. This also includes the process of setting up a company in Estonia. Raal highlights that it takes less than three hours to establish a company online, and the world record is a just a hair over 15 minutes. According to Raal, this efficiency, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, has positioned Estonia as an administrative haven, attracting entrepreneurs from around the world under the concept of e-residency, which allows individuals worldwide to obtain a digital identity card, granting them the ability to run an Estonian company without physical presence in the country. This offers access to the European single market, showcasing Estonia's commitment to fostering a global digital community. Raal highlights how Estonia's digital journey underscores the transformative potential of embracing technology, not only for enhancing efficiency but also for fueling economic growth and innovation.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream conversation:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
How is Ukraine doing in the war?
Well, they seem to be making incremental gains on the ground in the south of Ukraine against the Russian occupation forces. But most spectacular, of course, have been the successes they've had with long-range drone attacks in big numbers, where they have been successful in attacking Russian air bases 700 kilometers away from the territory of Ukraine, causing significant damage to significant Russian assets. That's a new dimension of the war. And it shows that Ukraine has the ability to develop new technology on its own, independent of the very important support that they're getting from Europe and from the United States.
- Why Ukraine's strategy is "stretch, starve, strike" ›
- Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink ›
- More drone strikes on Moscow ›
- Tiny drones in Ukraine are destroying tanks ›
- Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow imply they don't fear Russian response ›
- The Graphic Truth: The EU from its origins until now ›
- Ukraine’s long road to EU membership ›
- How Ukrainians learn to pilot kamikaze drones that destroy tanks - GZERO Media ›
NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) soldiers clash with local Kosovo Serb protesters
Kosovo flareups intensify
NATO is deploying additional troops to its peacekeeping mission in Northern Kosovo after clashes with local ethnic Serb protesters on Monday left dozens injured on both sides.
The Balkan backgrounder: Majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a decade after Serbia waged a brutal war to crush Kosovo’s autonomy. But neither Serbia nor the ethnic Serbian majority in Northern Kosovo recognize Kosovo’s independence.
As a result, in the years since, tensions have often flared over which government is legitimate in the area, and a peace deal that would give local Serbs autonomy has never been implemented. Nearly 4,000 NATO peacekeepers are still stationed in Kosovo to keep things in check.
The latest flare-up: In April, Kosovo held local elections in Northern Kosovo that were boycotted by the local ethnic Serb majority. Over the weekend, the ethnic-Albanian officials who won those votes moved into their offices. Serb protesters tried to block them but were dispersed by Kosovar riot police and NATO troops in clashes that injured at least 30 peacekeepers and 50 protesters.
Serbia is now putting its own troops on alert to defend ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, while Belgrade’s traditional allies in Moscow have blamed Kosovo and the West for the crisis. The US and EU have called for de-escalation, but Washington, normally a strong backer of Kosovo, has also criticized the Kosovan government’s decision to install the ethnic-Albanian officials over Serb objections.
More protests are scheduled for Wednesday…
NATO unity & how to end war in Ukraine
What a difference a year makes. As the world marks the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Zelensky's military has performed far better against Russia than even some of its staunchest supporters expected when the war began. And Putin's illegal invasion of a sovereign neighbor has rallied the West to Kyiv's cause.
Ian Bremmer is on the ground in Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference to ask world leaders how much further the West is willing to go in its support for Ukraine.
Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has been called Europe’s new Iron Lady, and says no Russian war crime should go unpunished. And NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană offers a candid assessment of a war that has no clear end in sight. Ian speaks to them both.
Watch "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer" on public television stations across the US. Check local listings.