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As Russia gains ground in Ukraine, Baltic states worry the war will spread west
In recent weeks, Russia has captured territory in the east and southeast of Ukraine at its fastest pace since the early days of the invasion. A six-month delay in the US sending critical military aid to Kyiv allowed Russia a window of opportunity to make significant advances. Now, military experts fear the war could spread westward to the Baltic states, bringing the specter of war to NATO’s backyard.
On GZERO World, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder joins Ian Bremmer from Tallinn, Estonia, for an update on the mood right now in the Baltic region. Government officials in Estonia say they are worried because it’s clear that Russia, by extension, Vladimir Putin, has realized that their survival depends on a permanent mobilization of the country for war, which the Russian economy is now dependent on for growth. Should Ukraine fall or take serious losses, the war could move past the border and into the Baltics, which are members of NATO. As a former Soviet country, Estonia keenly understands what it’s like to be dominated by Moscow and what it would mean for other NATO allies if Ukraine fell.
“Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, countries on the front line are saying, the United States and Germany need to wake up,” Daalder explains, “This war that you don’t want to fight, it’s right here, right now being fought in Ukraine.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Is the US aid to Ukraine too little, too late?
Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder says the last six months of Ukraine's war with Russia may have been a critical juncture. He underscores Ukraine's urgent need for additional capabilities, especially manpower and ammunition, which the US has been slow to supply.
"[The Russians] just have more people, they have more guns, and they, importantly, it looks like they have more and better morale, which makes them willing to do things that otherwise people aren't willing to do."
Daalder calls for a serious discussion about the West's role in aiding Ukraine and the potential consequences of inaction. To put it simply, Daalder says there's much more that the US could be doing. "We have military power, we have capabilities; we could send in larger quantities. We have troops."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Is Russia winning the war in Ukraine?
What would Ukraine’s defeat look like? Over two years into this bloody conflict, Russia has never been as close to victory as it is today. “When the history of this war is written,” former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder tells Ian Bremmer, “I think we’ll look back on the last six months as really… the turning point." Daalder joins Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World from Tallinn, Estonia, just a couple hundred miles from the Russian border.
"We need to start having a conversation about how serious this is, and are we going to accept this?" In a sobering and wide-ranging interview, Daalder outlines Russia's advantage on the battlefield today. “They just have more people, they have more guns, and importantly, it looks like they have more and better morale, which makes them willing to do things that otherwise people aren't willing to do."
How much is this battlefield mismatch due to a delay in US support? A big part of it, says Daalder. “Congress refusing to act on the requests that the president first made back in July…and nothing happening until mid-April” was a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses, Daalder says. “And now it just takes time to get stuff to the front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happen.”
Is it too late for the West to help Ukraine ward off total defeat? And what would lasting peace, as remote as it might seem now, look like?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Is Ukraine running out of time? Former US ambassador Ivo Daalder sizes up the Russia-Ukraine war
Listen: Could the last six months be the most pivotal months of the entire Russia/Ukraine war? Over two years into the conflict, Russia is closer to victory in Ukraine than ever before, according to former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. He joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast from Tallinn, Estonia, mere miles from the Russian border.
How much is this battlefield mismatch due to a delay in US support? A big part of it, says Daalder. “Congress refusing to act on the requests that the president first made back in July…and nothing happening until mid-April” was a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses, Daalder says. “And now it just takes time to get stuff to the Front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happen.”
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Would Trump give Ukraine to Putin?
Speaking to Ian Bremmer from Tallinn, Estonia, for the latest episode of GZERO World, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder outlines the potential impact of a Trump win on the Ukraine conflict. Daalder underscores Europe's concern about Trump's promise to end the war swiftly, noting that "Trump has said that he is going to end the war in 24 hours" by telling Putin he can keep his gains. This approach would effectively allow Putin to win the war and would have disastrous consequences, not just for Ukraine but for all of Europe. “It's been now pretty clear for the last few months,” Daalder tells Ian, that the Europeans “feel themselves squeezed between Putin and Trump. Trump as a country that is no longer willing and able reliably to help Europe and in its own defense in the way it has done for 75 years.” European leaders, Daalder says, are increasingly questioning how much they can rely on the support of the United States to defend democracy in the West. “That's the question Europe faces,” Daalder says. “It isn't going away with this election.”
Look for the full interview with Ivo Daalder on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, airing on US public television soon (check local listings.)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
The increasing risk of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO
Former US Ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss Russia, NATO, and the countries caught in between. According to Daalder, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought the possibility of an armed conflict between two nuclear-armed powers higher than it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Relations have devolved to the point that Russia sees NATO as an enemy and vice versa. So, is a new Cold War heating up?
It's a difficult situation for countries like Brazil, India, and South Africa, which have strong diplomatic and financial ties to both sides, and whose economies are suffering the effects of high fuel prices and rising global inflation. There is also the issue of Turkey––a NATO member that's used its veto power to block Sweden's membership in the alliance. With both sides digging in for the long haul, between Russia and NATO, how much room for diplomacy is there in the messy middle?
Note: this interview appeared in an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 24, 2023, "Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war"
Russia's narrative win on war in Ukraine - outside the West
As tensions between Russia and NATO continue to escalate, Ian Bremmer and former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder discuss on GZERO World the perspective of non-Western countries, who are walking a complicated geopolitical tightrope between the two sides.
Nations like India, Brazil and South Africa have a strong diplomatic and economic ties to both Russia and the West. They're being put in a difficult position of condemning the war in Ukraine without supporting Western-led sanctions, which are creating high fuel prices and rising inflation for their own citizens.
The West needs to make clear that the negative effects of the war are a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not of the sanctions themselves, Daalder argues. Changing the narrative to emphasize Russia's responsibility for the conflict is crucial if the West wants to maintain support for the long haul, which Daalder says could continue for decades.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war
Erdoğan, NATO & why Turkey's presidential election matters
Turkey's presidential election is on May 14, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not guaranteed to remain in power. How might that impact NATO?
If Erdoğan loses, "it'll matter a lot" for both Turkey and NATO, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder says in a GZERO World interview with Ian Bremmer. Erdoğan's opposition is campaigning on a pro-Western platform, and once in power, Turkey could once again become a helpful alliance member, stop using its veto power so frequently, and finally allow Sweden to join NATO.
"It'll always be there. It's a strategic country in that region," Daalder explains, "but we won't doubt anymore where its bona fides lie."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war
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