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The increasing risk of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO
Former US Ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss Russia, NATO, and the countries caught in between. According to Daalder, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought the possibility of an armed conflict between two nuclear-armed powers higher than it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Relations have devolved to the point that Russia sees NATO as an enemy and vice versa. So, is a new Cold War heating up?
It's a difficult situation for countries like Brazil, India, and South Africa, which have strong diplomatic and financial ties to both sides, and whose economies are suffering the effects of high fuel prices and rising global inflation. There is also the issue of Turkey––a NATO member that's used its veto power to block Sweden's membership in the alliance. With both sides digging in for the long haul, between Russia and NATO, how much room for diplomacy is there in the messy middle?
Note: this interview appeared in an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 24, 2023, "Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war"
Russia's narrative win on war in Ukraine - outside the West
As tensions between Russia and NATO continue to escalate, Ian Bremmer and former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder discuss on GZERO World the perspective of non-Western countries, who are walking a complicated geopolitical tightrope between the two sides.
Nations like India, Brazil and South Africa have a strong diplomatic and economic ties to both Russia and the West. They're being put in a difficult position of condemning the war in Ukraine without supporting Western-led sanctions, which are creating high fuel prices and rising inflation for their own citizens.
The West needs to make clear that the negative effects of the war are a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not of the sanctions themselves, Daalder argues. Changing the narrative to emphasize Russia's responsibility for the conflict is crucial if the West wants to maintain support for the long haul, which Daalder says could continue for decades.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war
Erdoğan, NATO & why Turkey's presidential election matters
Turkey's presidential election is on May 14, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not guaranteed to remain in power. How might that impact NATO?
If Erdoğan loses, "it'll matter a lot" for both Turkey and NATO, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder says in a GZERO World interview with Ian Bremmer. Erdoğan's opposition is campaigning on a pro-Western platform, and once in power, Turkey could once again become a helpful alliance member, stop using its veto power so frequently, and finally allow Sweden to join NATO.
"It'll always be there. It's a strategic country in that region," Daalder explains, "but we won't doubt anymore where its bona fides lie."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war
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Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war
Russia's war in Ukraine has significantly increased the likelihood of direct confrontation with NATO. Moscow is rattling the nuclear saber, NATO just added 830 miles of territory on the Russian border, and tensions are higher than ever. Russia now sees NATO as its enemy and vice versa. But does that mean war is inevitable?
On GZERO World, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder warns that Russian military aggression poses a real and present danger, making the current situation arguably worse than its been since the end of the Cold War. The possibility of all-out military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed superpowers is the highest it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, Daalder says in a conversation with Ian Bremmer.
Meanwhile, Russia still has some friends left. And non-aligned countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa remain on the fence because they have strong ties with both Washington and Moscow.
Daalder also highlights the potential impact of Turkey's upcoming election on NATO. President Erdoğan has been blocking Sweden's membership in the alliance, but the opposition candidate is campaigning on a platform of leaning closer to the West. If Erdogan loses reelection, it could mean Turkey becomes a stronger ally and partner at a crucial time for NATO.
Podcast: NATO’s Russia problem: the increasing danger of military confrontation between nuclear powers
Listen: As tensions between Russia and NATO continue to escalate, the world is once again on the brink of a potential nuclear confrontation. On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Ivo Daalder, former US Ambassador to NATO and current President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to discuss the complex geopolitical landscape and the challenges faced by nations caught between Russia and the West
From Moscow's aggressive nuclear saber-rattling to NATO's territorial expansion along the Russian border, the risk of a military clash between two nuclear-armed superpowers is at its highest since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Bremmer and Daalder delve into the possibility of a new Cold War and explore the difficulties faced by countries like Brazil, India, and South Africa, which find themselves trapped in the midst of escalating tensions.
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Odds of NATO-Russia war rising
Russia's war in Ukraine has dramatically raised the odds of a direct confrontation with NATO due to Western sanctions against Moscow. Russia now considers NATO to be its enemy, and vice versa, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. In fact, Daalder explains, Russian military aggression is a very real and present danger.
That makes the current situation in some ways even worse than during the Cold War, when the United States and Soviet Union tried to find ways to coexist and set up arms control agreements.
But now all of that is gone. Russia has even walked away from New Start, the last nuclear weapons treaty between Washington and Moscow.For Daalder, who is also the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the possibility of all-out war between the world's two nuclear superpowers is the highest it's been since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
Watch the full interview on an upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, airing on US public television nationwide. Check local listings.
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Can President Biden convince the average Joe that foreign policy matters?
President Biden may have convinced American allies that the US is back, but will It be difficult for him to convince his fellow Americans that engaging in the world is vital to protect interests at home? Former US ambassador Ivo Daalder believes that the COVID crisis has shown Americans that global problems can become local problems quickly. According to a Chicago Council poll, two-thirds of Americans believe that it is important for the US to play an active role in global affairs. Being involved is "no longer a luxury," Daalder told Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. "That's why a foreign policy for the middle-class is actually a pretty good slogan when you think about it, because it's trying to sell engagement, solving problems together with your friends and partners around the world, as a means to helping you achieve what you want every day - which is to have a good job that pays enough to take care of your family."
Watch the GZERO Worldepisode: Has Biden convinced the G7 "America is back"?
Takeaways from President Biden’s first G7 summit
If the US is really back, as President Biden keeps saying, what is it back to do? That was one of the biggest questions at the G7 summit in the United Kingdom last weekend, the first stop on the first trip abroad of Biden's presidency. The G7 tackled the world's biggest problem by pledging to donate 1 billion doses of the vaccine to COVAX, with 500 million of those coming from the United States. Taxes, climate change, China, and Russia were on the agenda, too. Biden's trip went better than Trump's last big outing, to be sure. Ian Bremmer recaps this year's historic G7 meeting.
Watch the GZERO Worldepisode: Has Biden convinced the G7 "America is back"?