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Why Russia is fighting in Ukraine without any allies
When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Russia stands alone.
From the Russian perspective, the Ukraine invasion is a battle for the survival of the country against NATO and the collective West, who, the Russia says, wants to destroy Russia and eliminate its influence around the world. But given the fact that virtually no allies have joined Russia in a fight it views as perfectly legitimate, does the Kremlin need a sense of reality and be more modest about what it thinks it can accomplish in the region?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and Kremlin ally, Dmitri Trenin, lays out the Russian view of the war and why the Kremlin feels it is fighting a war of existential importance.
“Russian is being ganged up against because of its determination to protect and defend its own national interest,” Trenin argues, “That’s how it’s seen.”
According to Trenin, Russia had no expectation of its formal allies, like Kazakhstan, picking up arms and fighting in Ukraine. The same goes for China, who Trenin says is major supporter of the Russian economy, but needs to protect its own interests militarily. Despite being increasingly isolated on the national stage, Trenin says that the stakes are so high, Russia will likely keep fighting until the bitter end.
“Either it protects its national security interest in Ukraine and wide in Europe’s east,” Trenin says, “Or the future of Russia will be very bleak.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television nationwide. Check local listings.
Putin's endgame in Ukraine
We still have a lot more questions than answers about Vladimir Putin’s political future and Russia’s war in Ukraine after Wagner Group head Yevgevny Prigozhin’s 24-hour attempted mutiny and subsequent exile to Belarus.
On the first episode of GZERO World’s newest season, Ian Bremmer spoke with former Carnegie Moscow Center director and Kremlin ally Dmitri Trenin about the Russian view of the war and Putin’s endgame in Ukraine, just hours before Prigozhin announced his armed rebellion.
According to Trenin, Putin has strong public support to continue fighting in Ukraine because the Russian people see the war as an existential battle with NATO and the collective West for the future of Russia itself.
“Russia is being ganged up against because of its determination to protect and defend its own national interest,” Trenin says, “That's how it's seen.”
Before the war, Trenin was known as someone who could speak evenhandedly, even critically about Russia and translate its motivations for a western audience. But after the invasion––and after months of saying it wouldn’t happen––he rebranded himself as a hardliner and deeply support’s the Kremlin’s view of the war in Ukraine.
GZERO World strives to present a diverse range of views. Many will strongly disagree with Trenin's opinions, but hearing Russia’s perspective on the war could bring a better understanding of the paths to compromise.
Tune into GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television stations nationwide. Check local listings. Watch our previous episodes at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
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Podcast: Russia's view of the Ukraine war: a Kremlin ally's perspective
Listen: After months of grueling warfare, heavy casualties, costly equipment losses, and with little to show for it, what are Russia’s goals heading into the Ukrainian counteroffensive? Is there any hope for resolution in a conflict the Kremlin describes as an existential battle with NATO for the future of Russia itself?
On the first episode of the GZERO World podcast’s newest season, Ian Bremmer sat down with former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and Kremlin ally, Dmitri Trenin, to hear the Russian perspective of the war in Ukraine.
Bremmer and Trenin spoke just hours before Wagner Group head Yevgevy Prigozhin led an armed rebellion that made it within 125 miles of Moscow, a crisis that represented the single most brazen challenge to the Kremlin’s authority in post-Soviet Russia.
On the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer podcast, Trenin gives his opinion of Prigozhin’s role in Russia’s military, Russia’s goals in the war, its relationships with allies like China and Belarus, nuclear deterrence, and more. GZERO World strives to present a diverse range of views. Many will strongly disagree with Trenin's opinions, but hearing Russia’s perspective on the war could bring a better understanding of the paths to compromise.
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Russia-US nuclear war is no fantasy, says Kremlin ally
Russia has the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. But from Moscow's perspective, the atomic deterrent was not enough to keep the US and its NATO allies from backing Ukraine against Russia.
That was unexpected since the Kremlin views this as a Western intervention in a proxy war that is strategically vital to Russia, Dmitri Trenin, an ex-Russian intelligence colonel and former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
For Trenin, all nuclear bets are off if the trajectory of the conflict leads to direct military conflict between Russia and NATO.
"If there is such a collision, then (...) a nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States may not be seen as a fantasy," he says. "This is my worry."
Watch the full interview with Trenin in the season premiere of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer's sixth season. airing on US public television nationwide. Check local listings.
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Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous”
President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest challenge to his power in decades as Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin led thousands of his men toward Moscow this weekend in what Putin himself called an “armed rebellion.”
Wagner forces appeared to take control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, a major logistical base of operations for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin vowed swift action to crush the uprising. Prigozhin then made a deal to "avoid bloodshed" and called the whole thing off.
On next week’s Season 6 premiere of “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer,” Dmitri Trenin, former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and former Russian intelligence colonel, explains the view of the war from inside Russia. Speaking just hours before Prigozhin began his march, Trenin told Bremmer that it’s “ludicrous” to believe there is any serious threat to the Kremlin.
The fact that a former Russian intelligence officer and Putin ally didn’t see Prigozhin as a “challenge” hours before the Wagner chief launched his rebellion raises questions about whether the Kremlin and those closest to Putin seriously underestimated Prigozhin’s threat. The events of the last 24 hours certainly show that the Russian president’s grip on power may not be as iron-tight as previously believed.
Tune in to “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer” on US public television starting this Friday, June 30, to watch the full interview. Check local listings.