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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki embrace during a joint news briefing on a day of the first anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 24, 2023.
Poland’s startling - and deceptive - announcement
Maybe you saw the shock headline – “Poland no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine amid grain row” – and wondered how such close allies had experienced such a significant wartime falling-out.
Early Wednesday, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced the country had stopped weapons shipments to Ukraine, presumably in response to criticism from Ukraine’s President Zelensky over Poland’s refusal to buy Ukrainian grain diverted by war. But the shocked international response to Morawiecki’s message forced Poland’s government to quickly backtrack/clarify its position.
Here’s the critical context:
· Poland will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons it has already promised to deliver.
· Poland’s stock of excess weapons is currently close to depletion, leaving its government with little more to offer, at least for the moment.
· Poland is, and will remain, the path through which arms shipments from other countries reach Ukraine.
One more point to remember: Poland will hold parliamentary elections on October 15. Prime Minister Morawiecki is well aware the far-right Confederation party can pull votes from his center-right party by criticizing the cost of continuing support for Ukraine. By appearing to punish Poland’s eastern neighbor, Morawiecki can try to protect his vote share.
Bottom-line: Don’t be fooled. Poland remains Ukraine’s staunch ally against Russia.
UN chief: We must avoid the mistakes that led to World War I
Winston Churchill once said: "Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Those words ring as true today as they did in 1948. Churchill, who served in the First World War before he led Britain through the Second, knew all too well the miscalculations that presidents and prime ministers made leading up to the Great War.
A century later, the UN's top diplomat, Secretary-General António Guterres, fears that world leaders today are making the same mistakes that got us into WWI. In an exclusive interview for GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Guterres explains what makes him so wary of this moment in geopolitics.
"We really need stronger and reformed multilateral institutions to be able to coordinate on what is becoming a multipolar world," Guterres tells Bremmer. "I would remind you that Europe, before the First World War, was multipolar. But because there was no multilateral governance institutions at the European level, the result was the First World War."
Watch the full GZERO World interview: UN Chief on mounting global crises: "Hope never dies"
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
- UN Chief on mounting global crises: "Hope never dies" ›
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- Podcast: David Petraeus on Putin's war games ›
- Podcast: UN Secretary-General António Guterres explains why peace in Ukraine is his top priority ›
Lightning and USB-C cables are seen with European Union flag reflected on Apple iPhone in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on September 25, 2021.
How the EU designed the new iPhone
Earlier this week, Apple unveiled the iPhone 15. The camera is better. The design is sleeker. The glass is less breakable. It comes in pink.
But the detail that caught our eye was down at the bottom: the charging port has changed from a lightning port to a USB-C port (that’s the one that looks, to us at least, like an M-dash).
The story of why Apple made that change takes us not to Cupertino, but to Brussels. Last October, the EU passed a law that required most kinds of portable electronics sold in Europe to have the same charging port – the USB-C.
The move will reduce the Babel of incompatible chargers to one single standard. Smartphones and tablets have to make the change by 2024, other devices by 2026.
Tech companies grumbled about it – they had refused to agree on a standard voluntarily – but ultimately they went along with it. Why?
Because they didn’t want to get shut out of a market of 450 million consumers (the largest among advanced economies) and it made little sense to make different phones for different regions.
The USB-C story is a nice example of how the EU, lacking tech juggernauts of its own, is nevertheless trying to shape the global technology industry as a “consumer first” regulator.
While the US and China duke it out for supremacy in both hardware and software, Europe has developed some of the strictest laws in the world governing online privacy, content moderation, and competition.
Just last week the EU unveiled another set of regulations targeting the six biggest tech companies with new competition rules.
This is the same approach that Europe is taking when it comes to AI — seeking to jump out in front with smart regulation rather than the most advanced AI modules as such.
For it to continue to work, Brussels has to bet that the allure of its market is greater than the bother of adapting to strict rules. So far it’s working.
EU support for Ukraine holding up better than anyone expected
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Kyiv this week.
How is European support for the war in Ukraine holding up?
I think it's holding up fairly well. If you look at the latest figures that are out, it shows that total European support is substantially higher than American support. Of course, the American is more important, the US on the military side. But the European figures are higher and new multi tens of billion dollar packages coming from the European Union. It is holding up much better than anyone could have thought.
With both Putin and Xi Jinping absent, what's so significant and what's going to be the outcome of the G-20 summit in India?
Yes, both are absent. Putin for fairly obvious reasons. Xi Jinping, a lot of speculation why he is, for the first time ever, not part of the G-20 summit. It could be a snub to India. Could be also that he has domestic worries that it needs to take care of. But it will be important to see if they manage to bridge the gap over primarily the Russia war against Ukraine in the summit communique. A year ago in Indonesia, they managed to get to communicate together, but it's not been successful so far. So India is up for a big test of his global ambitions. Can they get something together from the G-20? Let's see.
Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
How is Ukraine doing in the war?
Well, they seem to be making incremental gains on the ground in the south of Ukraine against the Russian occupation forces. But most spectacular, of course, have been the successes they've had with long-range drone attacks in big numbers, where they have been successful in attacking Russian air bases 700 kilometers away from the territory of Ukraine, causing significant damage to significant Russian assets. That's a new dimension of the war. And it shows that Ukraine has the ability to develop new technology on its own, independent of the very important support that they're getting from Europe and from the United States.
- Why Ukraine's strategy is "stretch, starve, strike" ›
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- More drone strikes on Moscow ›
- Tiny drones in Ukraine are destroying tanks ›
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- The Graphic Truth: The EU from its origins until now ›
- Ukraine’s long road to EU membership ›
Sweden at higher risk of terrorism after Quran burnings
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What is the story about the new terrorist threat against Sweden?
Well, it is worrying. The security authorities back home have now elevated the threat level from three to four on a scale of five. And that's the consequences, of course, of the Quran burnings that have happened in both Sweden and Denmark during the past few weeks. And that had led to, understandably so, a very strong reaction, primarily in the Muslim countries. These are irresponsible acts done by isolated individuals. The authorities in both countries are seeing what legal actions could be taken, but in the meantime, a very difficult situation that needs to be handled by the Swedish and Danish authorities.
What is the European reaction to the different legal troubles of Donald Trump?
Well, I think Europeans are following this with interest, needless to say, without necessarily going into all of the legal details, which are quite complicated from a European point of view. But the main thing is, of course, that what we see is that Donald Trump, in spite of all of this, seems to be sailing towards being nominated to be the Republican nominee for the presidency. And the possibility that he will, in fact, be elected a year and a half from now or something like that. And that is a prospect that fills most Europeans, most, not necessarily all, but certainly most Europeans with, what can only be described as sheer horror.
Russia's exit from Black Sea grain deal will drive up food prices
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the consequences of Russia exiting the Black Sea grain deal?
Severe, no question about that. It is obvious that Russia intends to completely stop all Ukraine grain exports over the Black Sea anyhow, as far as they can. It's not only exiting the agreement, it's also sustained attacks against the grain export terminals in Ukraine, and also those very close to the border with Romania. Upward pressure on global food prices, no question about that, that's going to be the consequences, and Russia is responsible.
How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?
Well, it's a hard slog. These areas have been extensively fortified and mined by the Russians, and we should also be aware of the fact that the Ukrainian army and the Russian army today is a different army. There's a lot of mobilized people, they have training for just some months. So I think it is going to take some time. So give it a month, or somewhat more than that, and we can make a more accurate assessment of how far they can achieve.
- Hungry countries vs. Russia ›
- Russia kills Ukraine grain deal ›
- Is Ukraine picking up the pace? ›
- Ukraine’s counteroffensive: Prospects for success, unity, and peace ›
- Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, Sudan & the power of diplomacy - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Why is Russia trying to starve the world? - GZERO Media ›
Ukraine's NATO & EU ambitions
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
First question, is Ukraine going to be a member of NATO?
Well, eventually it will. There's no question about it. There was no even formal limitation issued in the news for fairly obvious reasons. The country is in war at the moment. But at the same time, no question, there were substantial commitments by NATO, even more substantial commitment by the different G-7 nations to build up the armed forces of Ukraine long term, integrate them into NATO. And no question that Washington Summit next year is going to be a lot of discussions on when NATO formally has go to admit Ukraine as a member.
Second question, will Ukraine be a member of the European Union?
Well, same answer. It will be at some point in time, but that's going to be somewhat more drawn out process necessarily. I would hope that by the autumn of this year, that we will have first opinion by the European Commission to say yes and a decision by the heads of government, heads of state and government of the European Union in December to start accession negotiations.