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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to press before boarding Marine One to depart for Florida, on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 1, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump peddles scent of “victory,” Iran expels Afghan refugees, Pharma factory fire rages in India, heatwave scorches Europe
$199: For the low low price of $199 you too can wear the scent of the US president. Donald Trump has just released a line of signature fragrances – “for patriots who never back down” – with names like “Fight Fight Fight” and “Victory 47.” For true enthusiasts there’s even a limited edition bottle featuring a golden (and deceptively svelte) statuette of Trump, costing a mere $249. Yes, by the way, it’s legal for the president to sell perfumes.
250,000: Over 250,000 Afghans left Iran last month, after the government ordered the expulsion of all undocumented Afghans – many of whom fled the Taliban – by July 6. The expulsions are part of a broader forcible repatriation effort by Iran and Pakistan that the UN’s Refugee Agency warns could destabilize an already fragile region.
39: More than 39 people have been killed so far in a factory fire in South India’s Telangana state. While the cause is still unclear, Sigachi Industries – the pharmaceutical company which operates the factory – has announced that it will suspend operations for 90 days.
115.9 (46.6): A heat wave is ripping across Europe, with temperatures soaring into the triple digits, reaching 115.9°F (46.6°C) in one Portuguese town on Sunday. The high temperatures are causing all manner of chaos: two Italians have died as a result, and heat-stoked wildfires are ravaging Turkey.
Key takeaways from the 2025 NATO Summit
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt discusses the outcomes of the NATO Summit and where Europe stands with the Israel-Iran conflict.
U.S. President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a NATO leaders summit in The Hague, Netherlands June 25, 2025.
Three takeaways from the NATO summit
But, as the world’s most powerful military alliance moves into a new and more robust phase, here are three things to ponder.
First, this was a win for Trump.
Donald Trump’s Reality TV approach to global politics is working. The US president has leveraged his country’s awesome military power, along with his own personal unpredictability and media savvy, to command the spotlight and advance his “America First” agenda. In this world, international meetings are merely backdrops for the Donald Trump show.
At the G7 summit in Alberta 10 days ago, he wrestled control of the world’s attention by leaving early to respond to the military conflict between Israel and Iran. After bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, he announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that he initially sought to manage in CAPITAL LETTERS on social media. Flying off to the NATO summit, he published an ostensibly private text message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in which the mild-mannered former Dutch prime minister flattered Trump for his “decisive” bombing of Iran and insisted the president was headed to another major triumph at the meeting in The Hague.
“Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win,” Rutte wrote, accurately.
Rutte in fact set up the summit as an extended ceremony of capitulation. He even called Trump “daddy” in an exchange about wrangling peace between Iran and Israel. It looked undignified, and out of step with the attitudes of European voters who are largely hostile to Trump. But it worked. The alliance is paying more for defense, and Trump now seems to be a staunch supporter of NATO again.
Note: Trump is hardly the first US president to demand that NATO members shoulder more of the alliance’s defense burden. But he is the first to get them to actually do it so decisively. The most powerful unscripted drama in the world is playing out in Trump’s favor.
Second, the rearming of Europe has begun.
Europe’s voters, accustomed to social democracies that spend a lot of money on public services, might rather their governments spend money on butter, but they have come to see that they must buy guns. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made it necessary. Last year, Putin spent $149 billion on the Russian military, 7.1% of the country’s GDP, creating a vast and menacing war machine on Europe’s doorstep. And it is not possible to be confident that Russia’s ambitions are limited to Ukraine, since Russians are engaged in sabotage and disruption actions in many countries.
Could Europe contain Russia on its own? Not anytime soon. A recent study found it would take 25 years and a trillion dollars to replace the US presence that has largely kept the peace on the continent since the end of the Second World War.
But the rearmament of the continent has already begun, most swiftly in the parts closest to Russia. Poland, which has the example of Ukraine to consider, increased defense spending by 31% in 2024, to $43 billion, straining its ability to pay. Germany spent $88.5 billion in 2024, removing a legislated debt limit to do so. It is now, for the first time since reunification in 1990, the biggest defense spender in Western Europe. France spent $64.7 billion in 2024, the UK $81.8 billion. On Wednesday, they all agreed to spend a lot more.
Third, higher defense spending is a promise but not yet a reality.
Trump is mollified, arms manufacturers are cheerful, and a clear signal has been sent to the Russians, but only time will tell if NATO members will do as they have said they will. Politicians setting targets is one thing, actually spending the money is another.
After all, there is only so much money to go around and, in democracies where voters can be fickle, it may be hard for leaders to ramp up defense spending consistently over the course of a decade.
Some of them can’t even do it now: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez showed up in the Hague with the right script, but without his checkbook, because he leads a minority government that would not be able to pass a budget if he aimed for the 5% target.
Canadian PM Mark Carney, for his part, promised Canada will hit the target, doubling its budget by 2035, but it is not clear whether voters there — or in Spain or other countries that don’t have Russian troops on their borders — will want to keep spending so much money. And by 2035, most of the current leaders will likely not be in power.
There is another wild card too: Russia. Global military spending increased at 9.4% last year, the steepest increase since the end of the Cold War, which ended when the Soviet Union ran out of money.
If history repeats itself, and Russia is unable to sustain its aggression, voters in NATO countries will no doubt find they have better things to spend on, and there will be no way to hold them to the commitments Trump won this week.
A satellite image shows the Natanz nuclear facility after an airstrike in Iran, on June 14, 2025.
What the world thinks of the Israel-Iran conflict
The Israel-Iran conflict continues to rage on: US President Donald Trump called for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” on Tuesday, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out surrendering Wednesday morning. Iran is also considering bombing US bases.
Much of the world’s focus is, understandably, on what the United States will do next (for more, see here) – but there are other major powers with a big stake in this conflict too. Here’s a roundup of their views on the rapidly escalating conflict.
Russia on the fence. Moscow, long friendly with Tehran, has drawn even closer to the Islamic Republic since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, in large part thanks to Iran’s supply of drones. The two sides even signed a security agreement earlier this year. Yet with Iran now facing a bombardment, the Kremlin has offered little to Tehran other than verbal condemnation of Israel. That’s because… it’s complicated.
Iran’s downfall – coming after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last December – would mean the loss of another major Russian ally in the region. The Kremlin, though, has also long-sought to keep Tehran from going nuclear, and has been reluctant to furnish the Islamic Republic with certain weapons – in part because the Kremlin also maintains good relations with Israel. Putin must tread carefully here, but he is certainly on his back foot.
Risks for Beijing. China has publicly denounced Israel, but a more immediate concern is Iran’s oil supplies. Beijing now sources 16% of its seaborn crude oil imports from the Islamic Republic, and gets it at a discounted price. Smaller Chinese refineries have become reliant on Iranian oil, switching to this energy source in 2022 to protect their margins. If those supplies are cut – either by Israel or by Iran shutting the critical Strait of Hormuz in order to pressure the world into stopping Israel – it would be another hit to China’s already-vulnerable economy.
“China is quietly nervous, but doesn’t want to interfere,” says Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson. “China gets a lot of oil from Iran and is worried Israel will strike the oil facilities. It also knows that Iran is a pariah state for most of the West, so it won’t be very vocal in defending the country.”
Europe backs Israel, but with some caveats On the surface, Europe is wholeheartedly backing Israel. The G7 – which includes four of the strongest and largest European countries – issued a joint statement at their summit this week that condemned Iran.
Still there are some differences of opinion. While Germany has praised Israel for doing the West’s “dirty work” and the UK signaled possible military support for the Israeli Defense Forces, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that regime change in Iran would cause “chaos.” His position has angered Trump.
Conflicted views in the Arab world. In public, countries in the Gulf and the Levant are criticizing Israel’s attacks on Iran. Privately, there may be more satisfaction than they let on. For nearly half a century, many Sunni Arabs have viewed Revolutionary Iran as a meddlesome and disruptive foreign power, fomenting proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and beyond.
Then there’s Syria, where the current government overthrew al-Assad’s brutal, Iran-allied dictatorship just six months ago. It’s no surprise that Damascus’s new leaders, resentful of Iran but also delicately smoothing ties with a belligerent Israel, have gone radio silent.
The one notable exception is Qatar. The oil-rich peninsula maintains cordial relations with Iran, and even shares a gas field with them – Israel bombed it on Saturday.
But if there is any schadenfreude among Arab nations, there is also wariness of the conflict exploding into a wider regional war that draws them in. As the Persian proverb goes: “Those who laugh on Friday will cry on Sunday.”
Is Serbia pivoting towards Ukraine?
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt breaks down Serbia’s evolving foreign policy, and political developments in Poland.
After President Vučić’s visit to Ukraine, Bildt notes, “I think he is in the black book of the Kremlin because of that particular visit,” highlighting shifting alliances in the Balkans.
On Poland, following Donald Tusk’s post-election confidence vote, Bildt explains the challenges ahead: “The president can veto legislation, he can block important appointments.”
As Serbia weighs its EU path and Poland navigates internal politics, Bildt offers timely analysis on regional stability and European security affairs.
View of what state media KCNA reported was a test-firing of the weapons system of the new "Choe Hyon-class" warship, in this picture released on April 30, 2025, by the Korean Central News Agency.
The new global arms race: who’s buying, who’s selling, what’s at stake
Welcome to the new global arms race: faster, smarter, more dangerous and more expensive than ever. In 2024, world military spending surged to a record $2.7 trillion, the steepest annual increase since the Cold War's end, driven largely by European, Asian and Middle Eastern nations.
Who's buying?
Faced with threats from Russia, Europe has ramped up defense budgets, with Poland's spending growing by 31% to $38 billion and Sweden’s by 34% to $12 billion in its first year of NATO membership. Germany increased military expenditure by 28% to $88.5 billion, making it the fourth-largest spender globally and rearming the nation that precipitated the two major world wars of the last century.
In the Middle East, Israel's military spending soared by 65% per cent to $46.5 billion, the largest annual rise since 1967, amid its war with Hamas in Gaza and conflict with Hezbollah in South Lebanon. In Asia, China spent 7% more on its military in 2024, adding an estimated $314 billion, raising fears of an imminent operation against Taiwan, which boosted its military spending by 1.8% in 2024 to $16.5 billion. Fellow Asia-Pacific power Japan saw its military budget rise by 21% to $55.3 billion, its largest annual increase since 1952.
Who's selling?
Traditional arms exporters like the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany continue to dominate the market. However, emerging players such as India, Turkey, and Israel are increasing their share. Notably, Israel's defense exports reached a record $14.8 billion in 2024, with Europe accounting for 54% of sales, up from 35% the previous year.
What’s on the wish list?
Today’s arms race is not just about quantity, but technology. Nations are investing heavily in next-generation weapons, including drones, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and space-based systems.
In the US, President Donald Trump’s desire for a “Golden Dome” missile defence system akin to Israel’s “Iron Dome” would add $175 billion to Washington’s arms budget over the next three years. It would also require the cooperation of neighboring Canada, at a price of $61 billion, or 51st statehood – which Prime Minister Mark Carney has made clear is not on the table.
Russia’s recent announcement that it is equipping Belarus with antiballistic Oreshnik missiles capable of striking all of Europe has upped the need for missile defence systems on the continent. The United States, China, France, and Germany have also invested in electromagnetic railguns that shoot projectiles without gunpowder; last year, Japan became the first country to test one at sea.
Strategic implications
All this warmongering could deal a death blow to arms control agreements. The New START treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire in February 2026, with little hope for renewal. It could also see new theatres of war emerge: in the Asia Pacific around Taiwan, in Europe in countries bordering Ukraine, and in cyberspace, through the use of disinformation and propaganda campaigns. And all that military spending will put a dent in national budgets, possibly requiring cuts to social benefits, increased debt, or fewer government services - which won’t make voters happy, and could contribute to political instability.
Inter Miami Forward Lionel Messi controls the ball during the first half of an MLS match against the Philadelphia Union at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania, on May 24, 2025.
Hard Numbers: It’s called soccer now
The FIFA Club World Cup kicks off on Saturday, with the United States acting as hosts for a competition of the top local teams on the globe, like Real Madrid and River Plate. The expanded tournament will act as a dress rehearsal for next year’s World Cup, the country-on-country tourney that will take place across North America. However, political issues, as well as concerns about audience numbers, are putting a cloud over the competition.
32: There will be 32 football clubs from six continents competing in the Club World Cup, including 12 teams from Europe and six from South America. Inter Miami, a team that counts Lionel Messi in its ranks, earned a free slot as host.
25: The Club World Cup has been running on-and-off for 25 years, dating back to the first competition in 2000. However, this is the first time the tournament will be of such a large magnitude – it usually just comprises seven teams and lasts 10 days. The last seven Club World Cups were hosted in the Middle East and North Africa.
$1 billion: The streaming platform DAZN – owned by former oligarch Sir Len Blavatnik – paid $1 billion for the rights to broadcast the tournament. In an effort to maximize the audience, the platform will air the games for free. $1 billion is, incidentally, also the amount of prize money that will be split among the participants, double the kitty from the last World Cup.
0: US President Donald Trump’s new travel ban, which covers 12 countries, won’t affect any of the players, after the White House made an exemption for athletes and coaches. Admittedly, very few of the players are from one of the countries on the banned list – Mehdi Taremi, Inter Milan’s Iranian striker, is the highest-profile player from a banned nation. Yet Trump’s order defies FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s declaration, made during a White House meeting in May, that “the world is welcome in America.” There’s no exception for the soccer fans from these 12 countries.
A sign calling for the protection of ostriches at the Universal Ostrich Farms is displayed in Edgewood, B.C., Canada, on May 17, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Trump officials fight ostrich culling, Mark Carney wants to ReArm with Europe, Wildfires in Manitoba, Golden Dome price set
300: Senior Trump administration figures, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mehmet Oz, are lobbying Canada to spare over 300 ostriches set to be culled due to bird flu concerns at a British Columbia farm. The farm’s owners dispute the extent of the outbreak, arguing most birds are healthy. Oz has offered to relocate the ostriches to his Florida ranch. Canadian officials insist they must be killed to protect public health and the poultry industry, as avian flu outbreaks spread across both countries.
5: Currently, 75 cents of every dollar Canada spends on defense goes to the US defense industry. But Prime Minister Mark Carney says he wants Canada to join ReArm Europe — a major European defense initiative — by July 1, in order to reduce reliance on US military spending. ReArm Europe aims to increase member nations’ defense spendings to 5% of GDP and, crucially, to do so without heavily importing from US arms manufacturers.
17,000: Over 17,000 people are being evacuated in Manitoba amid the province’s worst start to the wildfire season in years. There are 134 active fires across Canada — half of them burning out of control — in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario, while the country braces for another deadly fire season.
$61 billion: US President Donald Trump says he has told Canada it will have to pay $61 billion to be part of his proposed Gold Dome missile defense system — or it can be included for free if it becomes the “cherished 51st state.”