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U.S. President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a NATO leaders summit in The Hague, Netherlands June 25, 2025.

REUTERS

Three takeaways from the NATO summit

The two-day NATO summit at the Hague wrapped on Wednesday. The top line? At an event noticeably scripted to heap flattery on Donald Trump, alliance members agreed to the US president’s demand they boost military spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade. Trump appeared pleased and now says he fully supports NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause, a commitment he had previously declined to make.
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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a televised message, after the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, in Tehran, Iran, June 26, 2025.

Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

What We’re Watching: Khamenei emerges from bunker, North Korea opens beach resort, & More

Iran’s leader reappears, but big challenges await

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has finally emerged from his bunker, delivering a public video message for the first time since the United States bombed three key nuclear sites in his country last weekend. The Ayatollah claimed “victory” and sought to downplay the effects of the US strikes. His week-long absence had reportedly left many Iranians worried. He faces a myriad of challenges now, including reasserting his power in the wake of Israel’s wave of assassinations of top commanders and aides. He also will need to decide what’s next for Iran’s damaged nuclear program.

Putin and Xi to miss BRICS summit

In a week where the alliance between Europe and the US rebounded at the NATO summit, the premier Global South grouping appears to be trending in the opposite direction: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip the BRICS summit, which starts on July 6. Putin is wary of his outstanding war crimes arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, while Beijing says Xi won’t go because he’s already met Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva twice in the last year. Brasilia sees this as a snub.

North Korea to open… a beach resort.

Looking for a last-minute summer get-away? Seeking a quiet spot that’s off the beaten track? The new Wonsan Kalma beach resort in North Korea might be just the place for you! Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un hopes the coastal enclave, formerly a missile-testing site, will help to boost tourism. The idea was born seven years ago, in part because of Donald Trump’s musings about the appeal of North Korean beaches. The resort will officially open on July 1.

By the way, it just so happens that GZERO’s puppet satire series PUPPET REGIME actually has a song about this – you can rock along on Instagram or YouTube.

Zohran Mamdani gestures as he speaks during a watch party for his primary election to become the Democratic candidate for New York City mayor on June 25, 2025.

REUTERS

What We’re Watching: Far-left upstart wins NYC mayoral primary, NATO members to boost defense spending, Iran nuclear damage in doubt

Upstart wins mayoral primary in New York

In a stunning political upset with national implications, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year old Democratic Socialist, won New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, defeating centrist former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. In heavily blue NYC, the Democratic primary winner usually wins the November general election. Mamdani, though, will face a strong backlash from Wall Street power brokers and centrists like current Mayor Eric Adams, who will likely challenge him as an Independent. National-level Dems are closely watching the race. As the party seeks a path back from the wilderness, it faces a widening internal rift between progressives and establishment-oriented centrists.

NATO summit agrees to massive defense spending increases

The 32-member alliance formally agreed to US President Donald Trump’s demand that they boost defense-spending targets from 2% to 5% of GDP, with the goal of achieving this by 2035. Some countries appear to be getting a headstart: Germany pledged a 70% increase in spending by 2029, the United Kingdom is buying jets that can drop nuclear weapons, while Poland wants to get close to the 5% target this year. However, the steep costs could increase pressure on European government budgets, which are renowned for upholding their end of the social contract.

How badly damaged is Iran’s nuclear program?

Four days after US President Donald Trump’s Midnight Hammer struck three key Iranian nuclear facilities, the effects are still unclear. A new US intel report says the mission set back Tehran’s atomic ambitions by only a few months – Trump disputes this. It’s also uncertain what Iran did with the uranium it has already enriched. The stakes are high: if Tehran can in fact revive its program in short order, the US-Israeli assault will be seen as a costly and risky failure.
Canadian flag with missiles.
Luisa Vieira

Carney pledges massive military spending: What’s it for?

In 2023, the Washington Post embarrassed Justin Trudeau when it published a leaked Pentagon report bemoaning Canada’s “widespread defense shortfalls.” They were so bad, the paper said, they were “straining partner relationships and alliance contributions.”

For years, NATO allies were frustrated that the Canadians persistently failed to meet the 2% spending target that is supposed to be the cover charge for being a member of the world’s most powerful military alliance.

But this week, newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney sought to put an end to all of that, announcing a new defense budget of CA$62.7 billion between 2025 and 2026. That’s a 17% increase over the current budget, and it would get Canada to the NATO benchmark this year.

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Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election? | GZERO World

Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election?

What do NATO allies think of conversations among US voters about President Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term? Are they worried a second Trump presidency will negatively impact the war in Ukraine? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in DC for his take on a potential second Biden or Trump administration. Sikorksi says Poland will have a partner and ally in whoever ends up in the Oval Office.

“Once you start interfering in the internal party, political affairs of other countries, you’re on a very slippery slope,” Sikorski warns, “Poland wants to have the best possible relations with the US, whoever is your president goes without saying.”

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Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM

Do NATO allies have the strength, patience, and unity to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to win the war and defeat Russia? According to Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski, the answer is a resounding yes. On GZERO World, Sikorski sat down with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, to talk about NATO’s strength, Putin’s missteps, and why continuing to send crucial military and economic assistance to Kyiv is a top priority for western allies and the future of NATO.

“Ukraine is heroically defending us before this evil man at a cost to us of less than 1% of our GDP,” Sikorski explains, “We can afford this."

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At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war


Listen: Does Ukraine have the strength, stamina, and support to win the war against Russia? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, for his perspective on the war, European unity, and whether NATO allies can remain united long enough to see Ukraine through to victory. Despite uncertainty about the 2024 US election, Ukraine’s struggle to recruit new troops, and rogue alliance member Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán meeting with Putin, Sikorski is confident Ukraine will ultimately prevail.

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Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit | Ian Bremmer Explains | GZERO World

Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit

The White House has a long, storied tradition of hiding the medical issues of the president from the American public. Ronald Reagan’s administration hid signs of his dementia; FDR hid his paralysis for years; Woodrow Wilson spent his last year and a half as president debilitated by a stroke that left him blind in one eye while his wife worked as a “shadow president.”

On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer explains why allies worry about the growing concerns around President Biden’s health, fitness for office, and stamina to lead the country for another four years. While there’s no evidence Biden is suffering from a distinct illness like Wilson or FDR, his disastrous debate performance last month made many question his ability to lead the country and the world for a second term.

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