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U.S. President Joe Biden gestures, as he and Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda and Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama attend NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2024.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Will he stay or will he go? The Biden-shaped elephant at NATO

While foreign allies have been respectfully circumspect on the subject during this week’s NATO summit in Washington, President Joe Biden has seen members of his own party increasingly express their doubts about his continued leadership. On Wednesday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi implied doubt by saying he had a “decision” to make — and George Clooney, a major fundraiser, wrote an op-ed arguing Biden should step aside.

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NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies
NATO Summit: US allies focus on Biden's uncertain political future | World In :60

NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

What are you watching for at the NATO summit?

Well, first and foremost, it's how all of these allies are responding to a very real political crisis in the United States. US, of course, the country they rely on for leading NATO, by far the biggest military power in the world, their principal ally. And they now know that the likelihood that Biden is going to be able to win, is a lot lower than it was the last time they saw him. And they've been seeing him. They saw him at the G7. They saw him in Normandy. They saw him, you know, at the United Nations and some in bunch of bilats and and everyone I've spoken to, says that they're not all confident that he can win. They certainly don't think he can serve out four more years. And they're deeply worried, especially because what a Trump administration might mean for them, with the exception of Viktor Orbán, almost all the NATO allies are very worried. They know that NATO, the EU, the war in Ukraine, all of that much more uncertain if Trump were to come back as president. So that's what I'm watching for and see how that plays out.

How will the UK's new PM, Keir Starmer, lead Britain?

Economically, not all that different. He's focused unusually for labor, focused on a pro-growth policy. He's promised that he isn't going to raise the major taxes like income tax and VAT. And so, he will probably find some more money in things like inheritance tax, he’s going to try to get more private sector investment into the economy. Certainly, wants to have a consistent policy on Ukraine, consistent policy on the United States as the previous conservative governments. Big change will be tried to reestablish stronger relations with the European Union and particularly Ursula von der Leyen, expected to get the nod for another five years running the EU. Keir Starmer spent a lot of personal time working on that over the past months.

As a Russian missile struck a children's hospital in Kyiv is there still no end in sight for the war in Ukraine?

No, no, there's no end in sight. in fact, while that was happening, Narendra Modi, the Indian PM was being quite friendly in Moscow on his visit with Putin. This is a partner of the United States. Putin feels like right now, especially if Trump is elected that his bet on this invasion in Ukraine will work out well for him. And that is not what NATO allies want Putin to be thinking right now. There's been success in getting them a lot of support, the Ukrainians, over the course of the last six months, and certainly they're going to have more money over the next year. But longer term, there's a huge question about how that plays out. And Putin is showing impunity right at the beginning of the NATO summit by sending all those missiles at civilian targets, including sick kids in Ukraine. Not a surprise. but still pretty sickening.

Marines conduct combat rubber raiding craft operations from the well deck of the USS Green Bay in the Philippine Sea, Feb. 6, 2022. The US commander-in-chief said on Feb 22, 2022 he had authorised the movement of additional forces and equipment to bolster NATO allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as Russian troops being ordered to eastern Ukraine following Vladimir Putin recognition of the independence of two separatist regions.

EYEPRESS via Reuters Connect

NATO’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific

NATO was founded in 1949 as a counterweight to the Soviet Union, but 75 years on, the alliance’s gaze is shifting toward China. Its members are increasingly concerned about the evolving security dynamic in the Indo-Pacific and Beijing’s growing influence around the globe, which helps explain why leaders from New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Australia — countries that are partners with the alliance — are attending the NATO summit in Washington this week.

NATO in recent years has begun to see China as a “potential threat” and a shared challenge to be addressed amid efforts by Beijing to “undermine institutions in Europe” and “potentially threaten European infrastructure,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told GZERO Media on Tuesday at a meeting on the sidelines of the summit.

“There is a growing concern among NATO allies about PRC activities, and having Indo-Pacific countries at the summit this week is a great way to share perspectives on what they’re seeing,” Kirby added. “They’re actually feeling and seeing the threats by the PRC in a much more real, tangible way, in some cases, than NATO is.” Relatedly, Australia on Tuesday accused China-backed hackers of targeting government and private sector networks with cyberattacks.

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Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine, with his wife Olena Zelenskiy on the left, surrounded of Heads of State in the NATO Summit hosted in Vilnius, Lithuania.

REUTERS/ Celestino Arce

What to expect at the NATO summit

The 2024 NATO Summit is set to begin on Tuesday in Washington, DC, and it comes at a historic but precarious moment for both the alliance and host nation. NATO is dealing with an ongoing war in Ukraine, preparing to welcome Mark Rutte as its new chief, and bracing for the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.

As a result of the war in Ukraine, which pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO’s arms, the alliance is larger than ever, and tensions between the West and Russia have reached levels not seen since the Cold War. Sustaining support for Ukraine as the country creeps toward the three-year mark of Russia’s 2022 invasion will be a major issue on the agenda at the summit, as alliance members increasingly struggle to make the case for throwing more weapons and money at a conflict that has no end in sight. And while Kyiv’s ambitions of joining NATO will be discussed at the summit, the continued fighting between Ukraine and Russia means it’s not happening anytime soon.

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Keir Starmer Downing Street Leader of the Labour Party Sir Keir Starmer with his wife Lady Victoria Starmer arrives in Downing Street to take the keys to No10 after an audience with King Charles lll as he becomes the UKs Prime Minister after winning yesterdays General Election and taking control after 14 years of Conservative rule.

IMAGO/Martin Dalton via Reuters Connect

Starmer storms No. 10 – what’s next?

On Saturday, newly elected UK PM Keir Starmer convened his first cabinet meeting and later told reporters that “We have a huge amount of work to do, so now we get on with our work.” Starmer appointed 25 ministers, 11 of whom are women, a record for the UK. Another first: Most of the appointees hail from the state education system, unlike the mostly private-educated cabinet of former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.
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Russia's war: no end in sight
No end is sight: Russia's war | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Russia's war: no end in sight

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hey everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a happy Monday to you. A Quick Take to kick off your week. Wanted to talk latest on the Russia War.

Seen both sides, significant new attacks. From the Ukrainians, a drone successfully hitting an office tower in Moscow. From Russia, a drone attacking a grain storage and infrastructure facility right on Ukraine's Romanian border. The Ukrainians wanting to show Russia that they can continue to hit deep inside the country, even right at the capital. The Russians wanting to show that they can and will cripple Ukrainian agricultural capabilities now that they have stepped out, the Russians have stepped out of the Black Sea grain deal. Both of these things showing that 500 plus days in the war is not over. It's continuing to cause grave damage to both populations and both also showing that there's very little substantial progress either towards victory of one side, defeat of the other or towards a ceasefire and a breakthrough in negotiations.

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Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan attends the NATO leaders summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

How Erdogan won the NATO Summit

This week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius is now over. So, who won?

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Jess Frampton

NATO summit, the future of US-China, Elon vs. Zuck, and more: Your questions, answered

It's summer in the Northern Hemisphere, which means: you get to ask me anything.

That's right — it's the time of the year when I take your best questions on anything politics, geopolitics, and personal. Want to know what I think about the 2024 US elections? The war in Ukraine? The meaning of life? Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn and look out for future AMAs if you want a chance at getting your question answered.

I picked 10 questions this time. Some of them have been slightly edited for clarity.

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