Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Carney pledges massive military spending: What’s it for?
In 2023, the Washington Post embarrassed Justin Trudeau when it published a leaked Pentagon report bemoaning Canada’s “widespread defense shortfalls.” They were so bad, the paper said, they were “straining partner relationships and alliance contributions.”
For years, NATO allies were frustrated that the Canadians persistently failed to meet the 2% spending target that is supposed to be the cover charge for being a member of the world’s most powerful military alliance.
But this week, newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney sought to put an end to all of that, announcing a new defense budget of CA$62.7 billion between 2025 and 2026. That’s a 17% increase over the current budget, and it would get Canada to the NATO benchmark this year.
It’s a sea change in priorities for a country that—bound on three sides by vast oceans, one of which is permanently frozen, and on the other by a long undefended border with the United States—hasn’t had a compelling reason to spend on defense.
But ever since 2022, when the Russians made their failed thunder run to Kyiv, the world has become more dangerous, and opinion has shifted. At last year’s NATO summit, Trudeau finally gave in to pressure and promised that Canada would hit the target—but not until 2032. This year, Canada was to spend just 1.37% of GDP on defense.
It’s not yet clear where all the money will go, and whether all of it will meet NATO’s definition of military spending, but Canadians are finally doing what their allies want, because they have to.
“A new imperialism threatens,” Carney said. “Middle powers must compete for interests and attention, knowing that if they’re not at the table, they’re on the menu.”
Canadians have reluctantly concluded they have to pony up. A recent poll shows that 65% of voters want more military spending, up from 34% in 2022.
Russian aggression and erratic American leadership have shaken up the old calculations about the wisdom of relying on the Americans to provide continental defense.
“The United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony,” Carney said, “charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security.”
But there is another factor: Trump. In his first term, the US president derided allies as freeloaders and urged them to spend more, but yielded limited results. In his second term, Trump has been more belligerent and threatening, and he is getting what he (and, to be fair, most NATO militaries) wants: bigger defense budgets.
In fact, he has upped the ante, demanding a new benchmark of 5%, a target that many NATO countries have tentatively agreed to—and are expected to confirm when they meet in the Netherlands later this month. As in Canada, the policy of increased defense spending enjoys broad approval in most of Europe, as voters worry about Russian aggression and American unpredictability.
In Canada, the new spending feels overdue. The Canadian Armed Forces have been understaffed for a decade, and, as Carney pointed out Monday, only one of the country’s four submarines is operational. Having relied on Uncle Sam for so long, Canada is now unable to protect the sovereignty in its territorial waters and the Arctic on its own.
The spending may also help Carney smooth relations with Trump, who has imposed job-killing tariffs on Canada and threatened to annex the country. Carney won the recent election by promising to stand up to Trump, resist American aggression, and assert Canadian sovereignty. He has said he wants to join the nascent European rearmament plan, and has ordered a review of Canada’s CA$19-billion (US$15 billion) deal to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets from US defense firm Lockheed Martin.
Carney, and Canada, have a lot riding on working out an arrangement with Trump. By boosting military spending, Carney has removed a long-standing irritant and improved his negotiating position in the make-or-break negotiations ahead.
Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election?
What do NATO allies think of conversations among US voters about President Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term? Are they worried a second Trump presidency will negatively impact the war in Ukraine? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in DC for his take on a potential second Biden or Trump administration. Sikorksi says Poland will have a partner and ally in whoever ends up in the Oval Office.
“Once you start interfering in the internal party, political affairs of other countries, you’re on a very slippery slope,” Sikorski warns, “Poland wants to have the best possible relations with the US, whoever is your president goes without saying.”
Despite concerns from Democratic voters about Biden’s stamina and cognitive abilities, Sikorski says that at a recent summit, he found Biden “focused, strategic, and actually quite amusing.” He also notes that the Polish government has good relations with both candidates and disputes the idea that a second Trump term would limit further US aid to Ukraine. He concedes that Donald Trump was right on many issues, like the necessity of all NATO members to meet requirements for defense spending. Ultimately, Trump responds to strength and power, and accepting defeat or a settlement on Putin’s terms in Ukraine may not align with the image he wants to project on the global stage.
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden ›
- Ukraine accepts EU trade restrictions to appease Poland ›
- Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- US election security and the threats of foreign interference: CISA Director Jen Easterly discusses - GZERO Media ›
Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Do NATO allies have the strength, patience, and unity to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to win the war and defeat Russia? According to Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski, the answer is a resounding yes. On GZERO World, Sikorski sat down with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, to talk about NATO’s strength, Putin’s missteps, and why continuing to send crucial military and economic assistance to Kyiv is a top priority for western allies and the future of NATO.
“Ukraine is heroically defending us before this evil man at a cost to us of less than 1% of our GDP,” Sikorski explains, “We can afford this."
Sikorski says that despite rogue alliance members like Hungary’s Victor Orbán, NATO remains united and is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling an aggressive Russia. Bremmer and Sikorski also discuss Ukraine’s ongoing challenges, such as ensuring Kyiv can keep sending weapons and new troops to the front lines. Sikorski remains optimistic that Ukraine will prevail and win the war, with the help of Western allies and NATO, particularly Poland, which has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees and is helping train troops to NATO standards.
Bremmer pushed Sikorski on his conviction that Ukraine would win, pointing out that a potential second Donald Trump administration could severely limit further military assistance for Kyiv and the sheer amount of force required to get all of Ukraine’s territory back just isn’t available, but Sikorski held firm in his conviction.
“There is never a shortage of pocket Chamberlains willing to give up other people’s land or freedom for their own peace of mind,” Sikorski said, “I think we can win this one.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Ukraine will define the future of NATO ›
- Does NATO need to be “Trump-proofed”? ›
- NATO’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific ›
- Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit ›
- NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies ›
- Czech president Petr Pavel: Ukraine war fatigue weakening NATO unity against Russia - GZERO Media ›
- Leaders of Poland, Nordic & Baltic countries affirm strong support for Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war
Listen: Does Ukraine have the strength, stamina, and support to win the war against Russia? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, for his perspective on the war, European unity, and whether NATO allies can remain united long enough to see Ukraine through to victory. Despite uncertainty about the 2024 US election, Ukraine’s struggle to recruit new troops, and rogue alliance member Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán meeting with Putin, Sikorski is confident Ukraine will ultimately prevail.
Poland is an important part of that defense strategy. The country, which has a 300-mile border with Ukraine, contributes a larger percentage of its GDP to defense spending than any other NATO member, including the US, and has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees. Sikorski says that NATO is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling and defending against an aggressive Russia and that Putin severely misjudged the strength of European and NATO unity in the lead-up to the invasion. Two and a half years into a bloody, brutal war with no end in sight, making sure that unity remains rock solid for as long as Ukraine needs is an urgent priority.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit ›
- NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies ›
- Podcast: Why Putin will fail: former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb ›
- Is Ukraine running out of time? Former US ambassador Ivo Daalder sizes up the Russia-Ukraine war ›
- Czech president Petr Pavel: Ukraine war fatigue weakening NATO unity against Russia - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit
The White House has a long, storied tradition of hiding the medical issues of the president from the American public. Ronald Reagan’s administration hid signs of his dementia; FDR hid his paralysis for years; Woodrow Wilson spent his last year and a half as president debilitated by a stroke that left him blind in one eye while his wife worked as a “shadow president.”
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer explains why allies worry about the growing concerns around President Biden’s health, fitness for office, and stamina to lead the country for another four years. While there’s no evidence Biden is suffering from a distinct illness like Wilson or FDR, his disastrous debate performance last month made many question his ability to lead the country and the world for a second term.
Trump is now leading Biden in most major polls, but European allies overwhelmingly prefer the old-school, post-WWII institutionalist world order the current administration represents. Trump’s isolationist, “America First” worldview is skeptical of treaties and alliances, which could seriously jeopardize future military assistance to Ukraine, whose fate may very well hinge on the US presidential election.
Watch more on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, in which Poland's Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski discusses the future of NATO under a Biden or Donald Trump presidency, Ukraine's chances against Russia, and Viktor Orbán's rogue moves.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- NATO has a Trump problem ›
- NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies ›
- Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech ›
- Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways ›
- At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM - GZERO Media ›
- Why Trump really wanted JD Vance as running mate - GZERO Media ›
U.S. President Joe Biden holds a press conference during NATO's 75th anniversary summit, in Washington, U.S., July 11, 2024.
Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways
Joe Biden’s “big boy” press conference at the end of Thursday’s NATO summit was a high-stakes mixed bag.
The president, facing growing calls to drop his reelection bid over concerns about his age and poor polling, made a few social media-friendly gaffes (he called Kamala Harris his “Vice President Trump” after earlier introducing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “Putin”) but otherwise gave reasonably coherent answers to a range of domestic and foreign policy questions.
Crucially, he insisted repeatedly he would stay in the race, beat Donald Trump, and “finish the job” — but also left open a very thin sliver of possibility that he could step down if his staff showed him that winning was impossible. But “no poll shows that,” he said, contradicting several recent studies.
In all, the performance may dispel some of the gravest concerns about his neurological condition but will likely do little to assuage broader doubts about whether Biden can in fact defeat Trump in November or serve as president until 2028.
Expect further prominent Democrats to call for Biden to step down in the coming days. But the earliest moment at which he would signal any change in his thinking would probably be next week, when an announcement would perfectly upstage Trump’s coronation at the Republican National Convention.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit | GZERO World
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit
Is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán undermining Europe and Western unity following this year’s critical NATO summit? Just days after Hungary’s nationalist leader met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orbán left the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC to visit former president Donald Trump, a well-known critic of the alliance, at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to ask how NATO members deal with a renegade ally like Hungary and the challenges posed by Orbán’s coziness with authoritarian rulers. Orbán’s rogue trips are a sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, on full display at the summit, but Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO.
“Orbán is freelancing on behalf of Hungary, and that’s not a new thing,” Sikorski says, “He’s been denying Ukraine transit of defense goods, he’s also been vetoing the release of European money for Ukraine.”
Hungary also has a complicated history when it comes to its international borders, and Sikorski worries about any leader who is willing to redraw a border using force, rather than diplomacy. He says any negotiated settlement in Ukraine should be negotiated by the Ukrainians, and warns that thinking a partitioned Ukraine is inevitable is similar to the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s strategy of appeasing Adolf Hitler in the lead-up to WWII.
“We can win this one,” Sikorski insists, “The Russians have advantage in tanks, but the Ukrainians have advantage in drones.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
U.S. President Joe Biden gestures, as he and Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda and Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama attend NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2024.
Will he stay or will he go? The Biden-shaped elephant at NATO
While foreign allies have been respectfully circumspect on the subject during this week’s NATO summit in Washington, President Joe Biden has seen members of his own party increasingly express their doubts about his continued leadership. On Wednesday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi implied doubt by saying he had a “decision” to make — and George Clooney, a major fundraiser, wrote an op-ed arguing Biden should step aside.
The president has been on a blitz since his performance at the first debate deeply undermined voter confidence in him. After appearing weak and at times confused during his faceoff with Donald Trump, Biden has attempted to change impressions with more energetic rallies and interviews, as well as public statements and letters indicating he is committed to remaining the Democratic nominee. It hasn’t paid off: A steady stream of increasingly senior Democrats have questioned him publicly, including eight members of the House of Representatives, and Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut. Behind the scenes, there is even more discontent: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is reportedly going to relay privately expressed concerns from his caucus — particularly members in battleground states — to the White House.
Late Wednesday, Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont went a step further than his colleagues: He publicly called on Biden to end his presidential campaign. “For the good of the country,” he wrote in an op-ed for the Washington Post, “I’m calling on President Biden to withdraw from the race.”
And that’s to say nothing of overseas concerns. NATO allies (with the likely exception of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán) are hardly eager to see Trump return given bad memories of his antipathy toward the alliance and fondness for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden hopes to reassure them, as well as his domestic critics, with a solo press conference from the summit on Thursday. We’ll be watching to see how he performs and whether it can ease the pressure.