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NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war | GZERO World

NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war

In 2022, NATO got its groove back. Sweden and Finland applied for membership after decades of thinking it was safer to stay neutral. Germany announced a huge increase in defense spending, and walked back their own red line of sending weapons to conflict zones. In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and only 3 of NATO’s then-28 members met the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Now, nine countries do, and 19 more have plans to hit 2% by 2024. Still, it’s a hard argument to make as global inflation limits the buying power of those military budgets.

Ian Bremmer spoke with NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană about the lessons learned during year one of the war and what comes next. Despite the cohesion, there’s tension brewing: NATO members have very different ideas about how far to go in supporting Ukraine; they blame each other for delays in weapon deliveries; And Turkey, of course, still holding up Finland and Sweden’s membership; no to mention there’s a limit to global trust and information sharing.

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U.S. President Joe Biden walks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during an unannounced visit, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Reuters

Can the US keep Europe together?

Just days out from the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden is making a splash in Europe. After a surprise stop in Kyiv on Monday, Biden is now in Poland, where he is expected to give a formal address at the Royal Castle gardens in Warsaw on the global state of democracy. He's also set to meet a group of nine eastern European leaders.

Biden’s trip comes amid growing fears in the region of both an imminent military escalation in Ukraine and concern for how long European cohesion on supporting Kyiv will last. This view was reinforced when Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki recently said: “We must admit that it will be a big challenge to keep the EU member countries enthusiastic.”

Over the past year, there’s been much attention on how a united Europe has served as a crucial punitive force against Russia. But as the war lingers, anxiety is growing about whether deviating interests within Europe could, over time, splinter its war response.

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- YouTube

Should Ukraine be offered NATO membership?

Finnish leaders know how to have a good time, which is probably why Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto recently sat down with Ian Bremmer to discuss Finland’s NATO accession.Threats from the Kremlin had kept Finland (and Sweden) from joining the alliance for 75 years. But the invasion of Ukraine changed all that. In May, Finland’s long-serving President Sauli Niinistö rang his old friend, Vladimir Putin. “It’s not me, it’s you,” Niinistö intimated to the Russian leader.

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António Guterres: Ukraine War United NATO, but Further Divided the World | GZERO World

António Guterres: Ukraine war united NATO, but further divided the world

Russia invaded Ukraine with impunity — and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres fears it may not be the last middle-sized power to pick a fight without consequence in the near future because global security governance is largely bankrupt.

"The capacity of deterrence that would exist if the whole powers, with the security council, will be able to say, 'This can't be done,' is not there," he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

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Davos Gets (Geo)Political | Global Stage | GZERO Media

Is the world coming apart? Drama at Davos

After a two-year pandemic hiatus, the World Economic Forum returned Monday to the ski village of Davos in Switzerland, where some 2,000 of the world's most influential leaders gathered this time to talk ... geopolitics.

That's right, for the first time Davos is driven not by business but rather what's happening all over the world — at a time when the general feeling is that globalization is unwinding, GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer said during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.

Indeed, former Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt observes "Davos cannot escape geopolitics anymore" because "things are coming apart" with Russia's war in Ukraine and the global food crisis it has made worse.

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The Goals of the West & Putin | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Authoritarian Russia's lies and the risk of escalation against NATO

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take for you starting off the week. Once again, we're 10 weeks in and I wish I had something, anything good to say about the war in Ukraine. I'll find something for you by the end of this, but most of the signals are really heading negatively and very quickly.

The Russians are taking more territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, the focus of this second phase of their special military operations as they call it. The Ukrainians, having said that, are ramping up their attacks inside Russia. And we're seeing a lot of sabotage, a lot of fires, some strikes across the border. One of the explosions in a tank regiment was outside of Moscow. So this isn't coming from Ukraine directly, but maybe it's sympathizers inside Russia.

We're not, of course, hearing anything from the Russian government explaining any of this, nor should we expect to. Looks like the Russian army chief of staff was actually injured by a Ukrainian strike while he was on the front lines, but on the Russian side.

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US President Joe Biden

Annie Gugliotta

Biden goes to Europe to talk Ukraine. Will it make a difference?

Wars can make or break political careers. They present opportunities for leaders to show off their statesman bonafides, or alternatively, to flounder.

The test is on this week for US President Joe Biden as he heads to Europe to shore up allied resolve against Russia’s assault on Ukraine. Biden likely hopes he can rally European countries to put further pressure on Moscow and force the Kremlin to make some concessions. Can he pull it off?

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A protester holds up a sign calling for NATO to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

USA TODAY NETWORK

Should the West say no to a no-fly zone?

Debates are raging about whether the US and its allies should enforce a no-fly zone over Ukrainian airspace. Some observers say it is the surest way to protect Ukrainians and push back against a Russian air campaign. Others say that such a move would be catastrophic, ushering in a third world war.

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