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NATO is "back to basics" defending Europe from an aggressive Russia
NATO’s renewed strength and commitment to its original mission of countering an aggressive Russia in Europe was on full display at the alliance's 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Poland Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to discuss the mood among NATO allies and Sikorski’s assessment of the battlefield two and a half years into a bloody, brutal war with no end in sight. Sikorski, whose country shares a 300+ mile border with Ukraine, remains optimistic that Russian defeat is inevitable.
“Putin misjudged us. He thought Ukraine would just cave in and he’d walk into a victory parade,” Sikorski says, “I don’t think in his worst dreams he anticipated we’d be spending hundreds of billions on arms and ammunition and that two years on, he’d still be controlling only 20% of Ukrainian territory.”
Sikorski says that Putin’s war crimes, including attacks on civilian infrastructure and a children’s hospital, have only strengthened Western resolve. He points to the heavy casualties and economic strain Russia faces, predicting a potential collapse of the Russian economy if the war continues. He notes Ukraine’s strategic victories against a much larger army, such as taking out the Russian fleet in the Black Sea without a navy. Sikorski says it’s in NATO’s best interest to keep sending weapons and financial aid to Kyiv because the cost of not sending assistance will ultimately be much higher.
“It's the cheapest and most effective way to signal to Putin, but also to others,” Sikorski insists, “that regaining what you regard as a renegade province is harder than you think."
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
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At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war
Listen: Does Ukraine have the strength, stamina, and support to win the war against Russia? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, for his perspective on the war, European unity, and whether NATO allies can remain united long enough to see Ukraine through to victory. Despite uncertainty about the 2024 US election, Ukraine’s struggle to recruit new troops, and rogue alliance member Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán meeting with Putin, Sikorski is confident Ukraine will ultimately prevail.
Poland is an important part of that defense strategy. The country, which has a 300-mile border with Ukraine, contributes a larger percentage of its GDP to defense spending than any other NATO member, including the US, and has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees. Sikorski says that NATO is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling and defending against an aggressive Russia and that Putin severely misjudged the strength of European and NATO unity in the lead-up to the invasion. Two and a half years into a bloody, brutal war with no end in sight, making sure that unity remains rock solid for as long as Ukraine needs is an urgent priority.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Is Russia winning the war in Ukraine?
What would Ukraine’s defeat look like? Over two years into this bloody conflict, Russia has never been as close to victory as it is today. “When the history of this war is written,” former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder tells Ian Bremmer, “I think we’ll look back on the last six months as really… the turning point." Daalder joins Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World from Tallinn, Estonia, just a couple hundred miles from the Russian border.
"We need to start having a conversation about how serious this is, and are we going to accept this?" In a sobering and wide-ranging interview, Daalder outlines Russia's advantage on the battlefield today. “They just have more people, they have more guns, and importantly, it looks like they have more and better morale, which makes them willing to do things that otherwise people aren't willing to do."
How much is this battlefield mismatch due to a delay in US support? A big part of it, says Daalder. “Congress refusing to act on the requests that the president first made back in July…and nothing happening until mid-April” was a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses, Daalder says. “And now it just takes time to get stuff to the front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happen.”
Is it too late for the West to help Ukraine ward off total defeat? And what would lasting peace, as remote as it might seem now, look like?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Is Ukraine running out of time? Former US ambassador Ivo Daalder sizes up the Russia-Ukraine war
Listen: Could the last six months be the most pivotal months of the entire Russia/Ukraine war? Over two years into the conflict, Russia is closer to victory in Ukraine than ever before, according to former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. He joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast from Tallinn, Estonia, mere miles from the Russian border.
How much is this battlefield mismatch due to a delay in US support? A big part of it, says Daalder. “Congress refusing to act on the requests that the president first made back in July…and nothing happening until mid-April” was a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses, Daalder says. “And now it just takes time to get stuff to the Front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happen.”
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Ian Explains: What the war in Ukraine looks like inside Russia ›
- Ukraine waits for help as Russia advances ›
- Will China end Russia’s war? ›
- Ukraine will define the future of NATO ›
- Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war? - GZERO Media ›
- At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Putin's Ukraine gamble
Is Ukraine losing the war? A year and a half ago, Russia was in bad shape. Moscow was struggling to resupply troops on the front lines, its naval fleet in the Black Sea was decimated, and troop casualty estimates were as high as half a million. However, a disappointing Ukrainian counteroffensive and a six-month delay in crucial US military aid gave Moscow an opportunity to rearm and regroup.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer examines the state of the battlefield in Ukraine and unpacks how Russia has been able to take territory in recent weeks at a faster clip than at any point during the war. In a sign of just how badly the situation is deteriorating, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky abruptly canceled all international trips to focus on the Russian offensive, a huge problem for a leader who needs to lobby governments for military and economic aid individually.
All eyes will be on this year’s NATO Summit in Washington, DC, where Western leaders are trying to lock in as many security guarantees for Kyiv as possible ahead of the alliance’s 75th anniversary. The problem is that they don’t have much time to figure it out.
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television this weekend (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Why was Slovakia's Prime Minister attacked?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tallinn, Estonia.
What was the background to the attempted assassination of the Prime Minister of Slovakia?
Well, we don't know everything. A person, 71-year-old man has been apprehended. But the background seems to be that the attempt was triggered by the climate of polarization that has been there in Slovak policies for quite some time, notably this year with elections, presidential one, last year with parliamentary elections, but even before that. So the lesson of this horrible act is that we have to be careful with the political culture and the political climate in our democracies. Otherwise, there's a risk-averse, triggering actions by individuals of this sort.
Are there really risks of a new wave of Russian attempts to destabilize Europe?
Well, what's been happening in the last few weeks is that it's been put out warnings by NATO itself, as a matter of fact, by individual countries in NATO that they have seen indications that Russia has started to encourage recent acts of sabotage, of violence, of different sorts of disturbing and destabilizing activities throughout Europe in a way that we haven't seen to the same extent before. It is, of course, if that is the case, and this seems to be the case, a sign of the desperation of the regime in Moscow, and how it’s trying to, in different ways, escalate their confrontation with the countries of Europe. We'll see how much this will have an effect, and we'll see how much the countermeasures that will be taken will also have an effect.
With a Rafah invasion, is the Israel-Hamas cease-fire dead?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Israel beginning its invasion of Rafah, is the recent Hamas agreed to cease-fire dead?
No. Though, of course, it was never really alive. Wasn't alive because the Israelis didn't agree to the terms that the Palestinians and Hamas did. But they are still negotiating and Israel's initial foray across the border to take over the crossing in Gaza is not, considered a redline, by the Americans, though it is disrupting humanitarian aid, and it's certainly not a full fledged invasion. So, I mean, again, escalation, lots of warnings, expectation that invasion is going to ensue quickly. But still a possibility that you get a short term cease-fire, a short term cease-fire. We'll see.
Will widespread flooding in Brazil lead to a larger crisis in the region?
Not in the near term. It is going to put some fiscal pressure on Brazil. You know, about 100 looks like dead and missing, and horrible floods, very costly. A result of an El Nino this year which we're seeing in a lot of places. And Brazil is going to have to continue to spend on this. And a lot of countries are and those costs, of course, a lot easier for the developed countries to manage than developing. And loss and damages from natural disasters is not a well funded effort by the wealthy on the planet at this point.
Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine endure as long as Putin, who begins his fifth term as president, remains in office?
While it's been going on since 2014. And so we're in our second decade of Russian invasion of Ukraine. I don't think the fighting has to continue as long as Putin is in office. I am hopeful that at some point, a negotiation can end this conflict. But it's not going to lead to peace between Russia and Ukraine as long as Putin is in office. It's not going to lead to a reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Russia and NATO countries as long as Putin is in office. And, it also isn't going to lead, to the Ukrainians taking all their land back as long as Putin is in office. So those are the problems. And, that's going to be with us for a while.
The Graphic Truth: How NATO absorbed its old foes
For almost half a century, NATO and the Soviet-backed Warsaw Pact alliance glowered at each other from across the Iron Curtain. But after the USSR collapsed, NATO expanded eastward by welcoming former Eastern Bloc members – a development Moscow viewed as a direct challenge to its sphere of influence.
This dynamic has again been a massive point of contention since Moscow unleashed a war against Ukraine, causing states like Finland and Sweden to submit hurried bids to join the defense alliance. Finland joined in the spring. And this week, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had been holding up Sweden's bid, finally gave Stockholm the green light. Here's a look at the history of the alliance's expansion.
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- Greece's PM on NATO, Navalny, and the wake-up call to Europe - GZERO Media ›
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