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With a Rafah invasion, is the Israel-Hamas cease-fire dead?
Rafah invasion: Did Israel violate any cease-fire agreement? | Ian Bremmer | World In :60

With a Rafah invasion, is the Israel-Hamas cease-fire dead?

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

With Israel beginning its invasion of Rafah, is the recent Hamas agreed to cease-fire dead?

No. Though, of course, it was never really alive. Wasn't alive because the Israelis didn't agree to the terms that the Palestinians and Hamas did. But they are still negotiating and Israel's initial foray across the border to take over the crossing in Gaza is not, considered a redline, by the Americans, though it is disrupting humanitarian aid, and it's certainly not a full fledged invasion. So, I mean, again, escalation, lots of warnings, expectation that invasion is going to ensue quickly. But still a possibility that you get a short term cease-fire, a short term cease-fire. We'll see.

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The Graphic Truth: How NATO absorbed its old foes

For almost half a century, NATO and the Soviet-backed Warsaw Pact alliance glowered at each other from across the Iron Curtain. But after the USSR collapsed, NATO expanded eastward by welcoming former Eastern Bloc members – a development Moscow viewed as a direct challenge to its sphere of influence.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin against the backdrop of NATO, Ukrainian and US flags.

GZERO Media/ Jess Frampton

No, the US didn’t “provoke” the war in Ukraine

Is the US to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

That’s what Jeffrey Sachs thinks. In a recent op-ed titled “The War in Ukraine Was Provoked,” the Columbia University professor – a man I’ve known and respected for a solid 25 years, who was once hailed as “the most important economist in the world” and who’s played a leading role in the fight against global poverty – argues that the United States is responsible for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine 15 months ago.

This claim is morally challenged and factually wrong, but it is not a fringe view. Many other prominent figures such as political scientist John Mearsheimer, billionaire Elon Musk, conservative media star Tucker Carlson, and even Pope Francis have made similar assertions, echoing the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is but a victim of Western imperialism.

This strain of Putin apologia has taken root in China, pockets of the US far left and far right, and much of the developing world, making it all the more important to debunk it once and for all.

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From foes to friends: NATO's history of absorbing its enemies
From foes to friends: NATO's history of absorbing its enemies | GZERO World

From foes to friends: NATO's history of absorbing its enemies

NATO and Russia have been enemies since the beginning of the Cold War. But could there be a time in the future where Russia is a partner, maybe even an ally? That's not happening any time soon, but if history is any indication, it's not such a crazy idea: alliance has absorbed its enemies before.

GZERO World goes back in time to the height of the Cold War, nuclear paranoia, and the formation of the Warsaw Pact in 1955.

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Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war
Russia vs NATO: Heightened risk of war | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war

Russia's war in Ukraine has significantly increased the likelihood of direct confrontation with NATO. Moscow is rattling the nuclear saber, NATO just added 830 miles of territory on the Russian border, and tensions are higher than ever. Russia now sees NATO as its enemy and vice versa. But does that mean war is inevitable?

On GZERO World, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder warns that Russian military aggression poses a real and present danger, making the current situation arguably worse than its been since the end of the Cold War. The possibility of all-out military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed superpowers is the highest it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, Daalder says in a conversation with Ian Bremmer.

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Odds of NATO-Russia war rising
Will NATO & Russia go to war? | GZERO World

Odds of NATO-Russia war rising

Russia's war in Ukraine has dramatically raised the odds of a direct confrontation with NATO due to Western sanctions against Moscow. Russia now considers NATO to be its enemy, and vice versa, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. In fact, Daalder explains, Russian military aggression is a very real and present danger.

That makes the current situation in some ways even worse than during the Cold War, when the United States and Soviet Union tried to find ways to coexist and set up arms control agreements.

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NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war
NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war | GZERO World

NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war

In 2022, NATO got its groove back. Sweden and Finland applied for membership after decades of thinking it was safer to stay neutral. Germany announced a huge increase in defense spending, and walked back their own red line of sending weapons to conflict zones. In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and only 3 of NATO’s then-28 members met the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Now, nine countries do, and 19 more have plans to hit 2% by 2024. Still, it’s a hard argument to make as global inflation limits the buying power of those military budgets.

Ian Bremmer spoke with NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană about the lessons learned during year one of the war and what comes next. Despite the cohesion, there’s tension brewing: NATO members have very different ideas about how far to go in supporting Ukraine; they blame each other for delays in weapon deliveries; And Turkey, of course, still holding up Finland and Sweden’s membership; no to mention there’s a limit to global trust and information sharing.

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U.S. President Joe Biden walks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during an unannounced visit, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Reuters

Can the US keep Europe together?

Just days out from the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden is making a splash in Europe. After a surprise stop in Kyiv on Monday, Biden is now in Poland, where he is expected to give a formal address at the Royal Castle gardens in Warsaw on the global state of democracy. He's also set to meet a group of nine eastern European leaders.

Biden’s trip comes amid growing fears in the region of both an imminent military escalation in Ukraine and concern for how long European cohesion on supporting Kyiv will last. This view was reinforced when Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki recently said: “We must admit that it will be a big challenge to keep the EU member countries enthusiastic.”

Over the past year, there’s been much attention on how a united Europe has served as a crucial punitive force against Russia. But as the war lingers, anxiety is growing about whether deviating interests within Europe could, over time, splinter its war response.

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