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Two years of war in Ukraine: Power players at the Munich Security Conference weigh in
Listen: It’s been two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While Ukrainians remain steadfast in their fight, political battles and crisis fatigue in the US and EU make a victory much more elusive. How long can Western allies remain united in their support for Kyiv? Does Ukraine have any chance of winning in this environment? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoanǎ for a hard look at progress on the battlefield and Ukraine’s future in NATO, just as news broke of the death of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. Later, Ian talks with another power player at the conference and on the continent, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, about European security, the threat of AI-generated misinformation, and Greece's landmark LGBTQ+ rights law.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 28, 2023.
Ukraine extends its reach ... and to some strange places
With the frontlines stuck, and its conventional munitions dwindling, Kyiv is looking to expand its reach against Russian interests – both near and far.
Ukraine’s army is now working with private companies to boost the production of a new class of kamikaze drones that can fly up to 1,000km (621 miles) – far enough to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
That’s in addition to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pledge to build millions more “First Person View” drones – consumer models adapted with explosives – which have helped Ukraine to even the playing field against a larger enemy.
The drones expand Kyiv’s menu of options, says Alex Brideau of Eurasia Group. “They could attempt to hit Russian export facilities for oil and grain in an attempt to choke off revenues that support the war effort.” In recent days, Ukraine has done just that.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also taking its fight against Russia to ... Sudan? Ukrainian forces are reportedly helping the Sudanese army in its civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which are allegedly backed by Wagner Group.
That certainly sends a strong “we’ll fight you everywhere” message – but it’s not clear how much it helps with Kyiv’s core issues: entrenched front lines and uncertainty about US aid.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomes U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin before their meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine November 20, 2023.
In Ukraine, winter is coming
Ukraine faces a tough winter, and its Western backers know it. That’s why US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday to signal “unwavering US support” for the country’s defense. It’s also why EU leaders will gather next month to set Ukraine on the long and winding road toward eventual union membership.
Despite recent advances across the Dnipro River and some long-distance hits scored against Russian forces in Crimea and the Black Sea, Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive has done little to persuade American and European backers that Ukraine can win an outright victory against Russian forces. Fatigue is reportedly high as temps drop along the frontlines. President Volodymyr Zelensky is rumored to face internal feuds about what to do next.
Meanwhile, in the United States, Ukraine’s most important arms and money supplier, continued support is under heavy political pressure. Some conservative Republicans, including GOP presidential candidates, have begun to publicly demand an end to all funding for Ukraine. GOP presidential favorite Donald Trump wants to condition military and financial help for Ukraine on any and all evidence the FBI, IRS, and Justice Department have on, as Trump puts it, “the Biden Crime Family’s corrupt business dealings.”
For now, Ukraine has the weapons and money it needs to continue the fight. But Russian forces still occupy about 18% of Ukraine’s territory, and Western fears of a costly, long-term stalemate have Ukraine’s leaders hoping for warmer and brighter days ahead.
US-China: Commerce Secretary Raimondo visit a success
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo just visited China. Was it a success?
Yeah, the bar is low, the expectations are low. But the meeting was successful. In particular, we have the announcement of two more lanes of engagement within the US Department of State and Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. One on commercial disputes, one on export controls. And, you know, given that these are sides that were barely talking to each other a year ago, that is an incremental positive. Also on the back of the Chinese economy continuing to underperform and the Chinese response being very incremental, they're not looking for any economic blow up with the US. And Raimondo, like Janet Yellen, who's been there recently, like John Kerry's been there recently, are the warmer, more pro-integration faces of the Biden administration. Haven't heard so much from Kurt Campbell recently. So all of that is nominally positive.
How will the Ukraine counteroffensive unfold?
Well, so far it is also marginal improvement for Ukraine. A little bit more land being taken in the southeast. One of three Russian lines of defense being broken in one place. You know, the Russians are holding pretty well defensively. The more significant counteroffensive is Ukrainian drone capabilities striking more targets inside Russia, in Moscow, in Pskov, in lots of places. And, you know, that's not about Ukraine getting their territory back. That's about Ukraine showing that their military can exact damage to the Russians. You know, on the one hand, that's a positive for Ukraine's capabilities. It's, of course, concerning in terms of the level of escalation that we might end up seeing between Ukraine and Russia and potentially between Russia and NATO. But so far, still relatively limited real news about how the counteroffensive is going.
Finally, what's next for the US economy?
Well, I'm not an economist, so I'm not going to answer that directly. What I will say is the fact that a lot of Americans continue to suffer from high levels of inflation means that even though the performance of the US economy, compared to the rest of the advanced industrial economies is actually quite strong coming out of the pandemic. That's true in terms of low unemployment levels. It's true in terms of comparatively low inflation. It's true in terms of comparative GDP growth. But overall, a lot of working class and middle class Americans still do not feel that the economy is doing well for them. Some of that is political perception, tribalism. Some of that is really suffering and a lot of inequality in the United States that hasn't been structurally addressed and probably won't be. There's more downside here for Biden in the next 12 months than there is upside from getting a Goldilocks economy going. And so on balance, I'd say this is an area of concern. But again, right now, hard to say that this is much more than incremental improvements.
Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
How is Ukraine doing in the war?
Well, they seem to be making incremental gains on the ground in the south of Ukraine against the Russian occupation forces. But most spectacular, of course, have been the successes they've had with long-range drone attacks in big numbers, where they have been successful in attacking Russian air bases 700 kilometers away from the territory of Ukraine, causing significant damage to significant Russian assets. That's a new dimension of the war. And it shows that Ukraine has the ability to develop new technology on its own, independent of the very important support that they're getting from Europe and from the United States.
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Ukrainian servicemen attend a training to use drones in Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukraine tries to wreck Russian morale
Ukrainian drones reportedly hit a Russian super bomber at the Soltsy-2 base outside St. Petersburg, which is a significant 400 miles (650 km) from the Ukrainian border. The Soviet-era bomber, used to carry long-range missiles, has been used throughout the war to flatten Ukrainian cities.
While this lone attack is unlikely to alter Russia’s air capabilities, it is a boon for Kyiv for a few reasons.
First, it reinforces Ukraine's ability to strike the Kremlin’s military targets well inside Russian territory. Importantly, it comes amid reports that US officials are increasingly pessimistic about the state of Ukraine’s counteroffensive – and occurs just weeks before President Joe Biden will need Congress to renew a funding package for Ukraine. Kyiv, for its part, needs to continue to prove that the vast investment is worth it.
What’s more, images of Russia being hit at home give more ammunition to the hardline military bloggers who continue to criticize the Russian military leadership for incompetence and for not hitting Ukraine hard enough. Undercutting Russian morale to destabilize Russia’s armed forces and political echelon has proven to be a key tactic for Ukraine in recent months. Still, Kyiv will need to sow deeper divisions and chaos to wreak havoc within Russian military units in a way that will truly impact the battlefield.
Why Ukraine's strategy is "stretch, starve, strike"
What is Ukraine's war plan? So much talk recently about the long-awaited counteroffensive has been negative, at least in the Western press. Is Ukraine's summer push failing? Not quite, says former US Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch.
"The Ukrainians are doing what the British call: 'stretch, starve and strike.' The stretching part of it is what we're seeing now, which is the probing to find the weak spots in Russian defenses. The starving part is hitting bridges, hitting munitions dumps, hitting railroad tracks, all of that, so that supplies can't get through to the Russians. And the striking part is, once they've made a decision as to where the Russians are weakest, then they will bring in the NATO trained and equipped troops to strike the Russians where they are the weakest," she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch this episode: Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
And watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
In the year and a half since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has felt like the momentum has consistently been with Ukraine and its Western backers. But is that beginning to change? Months into the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive, Kyiv has little to show for its military push. So why hasn't it been more effective?
While it looks like Ukraine’s military has recently launched a major thrust towards the south towards the Sea of Azov, the tide of war has yet to meaningfully change. So why haven’t the Ukrainians managed to do more, and to do it faster? And if a military resolution to the conflict isn’t coming any time soon, could a diplomatic solution be back on the table? Ian Bremmer addresses these questions with former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch on GZERO World.
The two discuss a range of topics, from the state of the counteroffensive to whether a diplomatic resolution to the war is still possible. They also look back at Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed--or aborted, or curtailed--coup. Yovanovitch, for one, doesn't think that story is over by a long shot.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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