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Ukraine warns of escalation after Putin’s talk of a ‘sanitary zone’
Fresh off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “victory” of a fifth term, the Kremlin on Monday said it would move to establish a buffer zone in Ukrainian territory for the sake of Russia’s security. Putin suggested creating a “'sanitary zone' in the territories today under the Kyiv regime.”
What’s this all about? While the bulk of the fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war has occurred within Ukrainian territory, Kyiv has regularly launched strikes against targets in Russia proper as well. The border city of Belgorod has been a frequent target. The Kremlin said a buffer zone would aim to ensure “any means that the enemy uses to strike us are out of range."
Moscow already illegally annexed four Ukrainian territories — Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia — in 2022 (despite not fully controlling these regions). But Russia in recent months has ramped up strikes on Kharkiv, a region along the Ukraine-Russia border. Talk of a buffer zone could signal that Russia will increasingly prioritize seizing territory in Kharkiv.
Ukraine raises the alarm. Kyiv says this signals that Russia is planning to escalate the conflict, which has largely been stalemated over the past year, though Russia last month seized Avdiivka — giving it new momentum in 2024.
Ukraine is still standing two years after Russian invasion
From Kyiv, Ukraine, Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Europe in 60 Seconds. This is Carl Bildt in Kyiv, Ukraine. At this time, there's only one question here. This is two years after Mr. Putin unleashed the entire might, military might of Russia against Ukraine, trying to get rid of Mr. Zelensky, effectively get rid of Ukraine. He failed. Ukraine is still standing. Life in Kyiv goes on. But, of course, there's a horrible, brutal attrition war going on in the east and the south part of the country.
And the question is, what will happen?
Resources are being thrown in. Western support is absolutely essential for Ukraine. They are fighting and they are determined that they're going to win this fight. But they are also very much dependent upon the support by the Europeans and by the Americans. And to give that support from the European point of view, it’s essential for our future security. And from the wider point of view globally, in order to send a clear message to others who might be contemplating military expeditions elsewhere in the world, it’s bound to fail.
- Can Ukraine win the war? ›
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- What Ukraine needs after two years of war with Russia ›
- What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains ›
- Russia-Ukraine: Two Years of War ›
- Moscow terror attack: What happens next? - GZERO Media ›
Russia-Ukraine: Two Years of War
It's been two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and the war is still raging. GZERO looks back at the pivotal moments of the past 24 months.
The Latest:
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Feb. 24, 2022: Russia launches “special military operation” in Ukraine
On Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launches a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, labeling it a "special military operation." The aim? The "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, according to Putin, who warns of inevitable clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Any bloodshed, he says, would be on Ukraine’s hands.
- Ian Bremmer: This is a turning point in the global order
- Russia-Ukraine crisis: What you need to know
Feb. 28, 2022: The ruble nosedives
Days after Russian troops invade eastern Ukraine, the country's currency plummets, shedding up to 30% of its value against the US dollar. This drastic decline follows allied sanctions, specifically targeting Russia’s central bank and major lenders. Such a sharp depreciation of the ruble has occurred only twice before: during the 1998 Russian financial crisis and again in late 2014.
March 2022: Putin = Common denominator
Putin Past the Point of No Return | Putin's Europe Problem | GZERO World with Ian Bremmerhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer/putins-europe-problem
While NATO forces aren't directly engaged, the US and its allies support Ukraine through arms, financial aid, and stringent sanctions against Moscow. Vladimir Putin's approach, reminiscent of past-century warfare, falters in the modern era of global PR and social media dominance. The repercussions extend far beyond Ukraine, capturing the attention of countries like Finland, transitioning from neutrality to NATO hopeful. Former Finland PM Alexander Stubb, reflecting on Putin's stance and China's hesitance to fully support Russia, highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics. On this award-winning episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Stubb, who once helped broker Russia's 2008 cease-fire with Georgia and believes Putin has backed himself into a corner but won't back down on Ukraine.
- Putin only understands power and force, says Finland’s former PM
- Civilians gear up: “This is not a suicide mission” – the Wolverines of Ukraine
April 2022: Russia retreats from Kyiv, Bucha massacre uncovered
Is Putin's war in Ukraine genocide?https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/is-putin-s-war-in-ukraine-genocide
As Ukrainian forces retake Kyiv and Russian troops begin retreating to eastern and southern Ukraine, gruesome images surface from Bucha, a Kyiv suburb, revealing that civilians – women, children, and elderly – lay dead in the streets. Ukrainian officials and independent sources share horrific accounts of rape, torture, and execution by Russian soldiers, and hundreds of victims are found in mass graves. Russia denies responsibility and instead points fingers at Ukraine.
- Is Putin's war in Ukraine a genocide?
- The price of Russian defeat
- Zelensky wants justice over Russian war crimes
- Russian military on the ropes
June 2022: Russia withdraws from Snake Island
Russia retreats from Snake Island, with the Kremlin calling it a "gesture of goodwill" to disprove the hindrance of Ukrainian food exports, but Ukrainians credit their missile strikes. The blockade disrupted Ukraine's monthly grain exports of five million metric tons, spiking global food prices and sparking famine fears in Africa. Zmiinyi Island, 22 miles off Ukraine's coast, offers strategic advantages, but its capture hindered Kyiv's defense of the southwestern coast and Odesa port. While a Ukrainian victory, naval weakness hampers food export resumption, underscoring Kremlin's Donbas focus.
August 2022: Fighting around Zaporizhzhia power plant raises fears
Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant in Peril | US Energy Secretary Granholm | GZERO Worldhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-clips/us-en...
Artillery duels erupt at Europe’s largest nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia, southern Ukraine, now under Russian occupation. Both sides accuse the other of instigating the conflict. The IAEA raises concerns over the potential for a nuclear catastrophe, as shelling severely damages radiation sensors near a spent fuel storage unit. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemns the situation as “Russian nuclear terror.”
Sept. 11, 2022: Ukraine pushes back, reclaims over a thousand square miles
On the 200th day of the war, the Ukrainian military achieves its most significant gains against Russia since the invasion began. President Volodymyr Zelensky declares the liberation of over 1,000 kilometers of territory, pledging to "de-occupy" completely.
Sept. 21, 2022: Russia calls up reservists
Russia calls up reservistshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-iran-protests-spread-putin-mobilizes-ny-sues-trumps-china-faces-slow-growth
Vladimir Putin dramatically ups the ante and orders the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian defiance persists, with Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, reaffirming their commitment to pressure Putin's government and military. Meanwhile, Russia grapples with internal unrest, evident in protests and a surge of draft-age men fleeing the country. While Putin stops short of full mobilization, ongoing setbacks in the "special military operation" raise concerns about future escalations.
- The script for conscripts: Inside Putin’s (partial) mobilization
- QuickTake with Ian Bremmer: Putin cornered
- António Guterres: Ukraine war united NATO but further divided the world
Sept. 26, 2022: Who blew up Nord Stream?
Who blew up Nord Stream? Ian Bremmer
The controversial Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany and Europe are sabotaged, leading to multiple investigations into whodunnit.
- Did someone blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
- Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit
- Who blew up Nord Stream?
September 2022: Russia holds referenda in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine
Russian annexationshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-russian-annexations-the-india-pakistan-us-tango
Putin’s sham referenda in four regions of Ukraine officially moves forward to annexations. Yet, with ongoing clashes, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson remain battlegrounds. Securing control amid Ukrainian resistance could provide Putin with a strategic land bridge from southeastern Ukraine to Crimea, annexed in 2014. While Russia holds Luhansk and Kherson, and portions of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, Ukrainian forces persist in gaining ground. The referenda offer Putin a pretext, framing Ukrainian/Western attacks as assaults on Russia. Amid a faltering war, Putin terms it an "anti-colonial movement." In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks accelerated NATO accession.
Oct. 8, 2022: Kerch Bridge blast
Russia launches a series of airstrikes targeting major Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and even Lviv, previously deemed a haven. The attacks, hitting civilian areas during rush hour, inflict considerable damage to infrastructure, causing power outages and driving civilians into bomb shelters. While the death toll remains unconfirmed, casualties are expected to be substantial. This military escalation follows Saturday's explosion on the Crimea-Russia Kerch bridge, which Putin attributes to Ukrainian "terrorists." The strikes were ordered before Putin's National Security Council meeting, suggesting retaliation planning. Though the Kremlin has yet to comment officially, Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov expresses satisfaction, advocating for reprisals against Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Putin lashes out after Crimea bridge blast
- Russian revenge vs. Ukrainian resolve
- Following Ukraine’s Crimea bridge attack, expect Putin to escalate "until he collapses"
January 2023: US and Germany offer tanks
Ukraine tanks uphttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-tanks-up
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces Germany's decision to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, following pressure from NATO countries led by Poland. Berlin initially resisted, concerned about antagonizing Russia and awaiting US action on supplying Abrams tanks. Two tank battalions, totaling roughly 80 Leopard 2 tanks, will be deployed to Ukraine, with training for Ukrainian soldiers commencing in Germany. However, US tank shipments may not arrive until spring, as the Ukrainian military lacks Abrams operation knowledge and maintenance supply lines and faces fuel consumption concerns.
- Ukraine tanks up
- Ukraine's killer dune buggies
- Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant at risk of disaster, says top nuclear watchdog
- Putin’s war crimes solidify West’s military support for Ukraine
- Russian unpredictability & Finland's border threat
February 2023: Biden visits Kyiv
Biden’s visit to Ukraine signals US commitment, but war gets tougher | Quick Take | GZERO Mediahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/quick-take/biden-visit-to-ukraine-signals-us-commitment-but-war-gets-tougher
President Biden makes a surprise trip to Kyiv, just before the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. It's significant as the first visit by an American president since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and intervention in Southeast Ukraine. This underscores continued US commitment symbolically, boosts Ukrainian morale, and reassures NATO of America's unwavering prioritization of Ukraine, despite substantial aid and a year of conflict. The trip holds immense importance for diplomatic relations, emphasizing the enduring support for Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions with Russia.
June 8, 2023: Ukraine launches counteroffensive
Ukraine ups the antehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-ups-the-ante
The New York Times reports that Ukraine's nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is ramping up in the southeast, per two anonymous Pentagon officials. Thousands of previously held-back reserves are now deploying to the front lines. Both Ukrainian and Russian reports corroborate this escalation. Whether Ukraine gains strategic ground or not marks a pivotal juncture in the war.
June 24, 2023: Prigozhin stages mutiny
Russia’s aborted coup, explainedhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/russias-aborted-coup-explained
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin stages a failed mutiny against Vladimir Putin. Ian Bremmer predicts the move will be the beginning of the end of Prigozhin. According to Bremmer, Prigozhin, in the lead-up to his mutiny, had become increasingly erratic, indicative of his declining political influence. What's more, he directed fury at Russia’s Ministry of Defense, accusing them of sending thousands of soldiers to their deaths due to corruption, incompetence, and cowardice.
- Russia’s aborted coup, explained
- Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous”
July 2023: Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Deal
Russia's exit from Black Sea grain deal will drive up food prices | Europe In: 60https://www.gzeromedia.com/in-60-seconds/europe/russias-exit-from-black-sea-grain-deal-will-drive-up-food-prices
Russia announces its exit from the Black Sea grain deal, a move GZERO's Europe In :60 host and former Sweden PM Carl Bildt predicts would have severe consequences on global food prices. Continuous attacks on grain terminals near the Ukrainian-Romanian border aggravate the situation. Meanwhile, the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive slows down due to extensive Russian fortifications and mines. The Ukrainian army, largely composed of mobilized individuals with limited training, faces significant challenges.
Aug. 23, 2023: Prigozhin dies in plane crash
Wagner's Prigozhin dieshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/wagners-prigozhin-presu...
Russian state media reports a private aircraft crash outside Moscow, killing all 10 aboard, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group warlord behind a failed mutiny against the Kremlin in June.
September 2023: Peace in Ukraine is world's priority, says UN chief António Guterres
November 2023: US govt avoids shutdown, cuts Ukraine funding
Shutdown averted, but deal contains no aid for Ukrainehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/shutdown-averted-but-deal-contains-no-aid-for-ukraine
Ukraine's funding struggle continues as a divided US House finally reached an agreement to avoid a government shutdown but notably did not include military aid for either Ukraine or Israel. Democrats had tried to lump aid for Israel - which received bipartisan support - together with that of Ukraine, which faced resistance from Republicans. The decision is a significant blow to Ukraine, whose somewhat successful resistance against the Russian offensive relied heavily on US funding. What's more, their hopes of getting assistance from the EU face threats from Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—an ally of Vladimir Putin.
February 2024: Russia recaptures Avdiivka
Pro-Russia blogger commits suicide, Russia recaptures Avdiivkahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/news/hard-numbers/hard-numbers-pro-russia-blogger-commits-suicide-uk-nuclear-missile-test-fails-biden-slashes-student-debt-iran-gives-russia-missiles
In mid-February 2024, Russian forces in Ukraine scored their first major victory in months, taking the strategic town of Avdiivka. A pro-Russian blogger who reported that 16,000 Russian troops had died in the effort faced a huge backlash and committed suicide.
- What Ukraine needs after two years of war with Russia - GZERO Media ›
- What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine is still standing two years after Russian invasion - GZERO Media ›
- Two years of war in Ukraine: Power players at the Munich Security Conference weigh in - GZERO Media ›
- Greece's PM on NATO, Navalny, and the wake-up call to Europe - GZERO Media ›
- A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari - GZERO Media ›
- Moscow terror attack: What happens next? - GZERO Media ›
Yes, Vladimir Putin is winning.
It’s been two years since Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which makes it as good a time as any to ask a simple question: Is he winning?
Here’s the best argument we can think of for why the answer is “da.”
Just to be clear, it’s true that if Vladimir Vladimirovich thought it would take barely a week to topple the Ukrainian government, conquer Kyiv, and ram the country back into the Kremlin’s own courtyard of influence — he was wrong. In fairness, he’s certainly not the first Russian leader to misjudge the likelihood of a “short victorious war.”
Still, the lines in the steppe are what they are. Even after Ukraine’s successful pushback against the initial invasion, Russia controls more than twice as much Ukrainian land as it did at the start of the war, when Moscow already held Crimea and a decent swath of the Donbas. Russian boots are currently on the ground in about a fifth of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory. In EU terms, that would be like an occupation of France and most of Spain.
Ukraine’s vaunted counteroffensive of 2023, of course, fell short and the situation today is a grinding battle of attrition in which the Kremlin, grimly and simply, has more bodies to throw at the front. Just last week, Russian forces made their first breakthrough in months, taking the strategic Donbas city of Avdiivka.
It’s true that even small advances have taken a huge toll on the lumbering and inefficient Russian military. But even an estimated total of 45,000 Russian dead – and as many as eight times as many wounded, totals that dwarf any Russian losses since World War II – hasn’t rattled popular support in a country where the Kremlin controls the media, most of the casualties are from remote regions, and penalties for protests are severe.
What about the economy? Russia has weathered severe Western financial and technology sanctions – in part because it’s been able to continue selling oil and gas to the world, and in part because Putin has dragged his country onto a war footing, tripling pre-war defense expenditures. All of that helped GDP to expand by 3% last year, and the IMF predicts 2.6% this year – not bad for a country under quite literally thousands of sanctions.
When it comes to weapons, two years of war have certainly depleted Russia’s arms caches, but pariahs like Iran, North Korea, Belarus, and Syria have happily sent Putin the shells, drones, and missiles he needs to keep firing at the front lines. Just this week, it emerged that Tehran has been sending hundreds of ballistic missiles to Moscow.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is in a tough spot. Kyiv is increasingly struggling to find the men and the ammo to defend its current positions, let alone push back Russian forces.
Part of the reason Kyiv can’t get the weapons it needs, of course, is that Ukraine’s once-united Western backers are now suffering from “Ukraine fatigue.”
The EU just barely pushed through a fresh financial support package that will help Kyiv to keep the lights on. And Putin can only delight in the ongoing failure of the US Congress to approve further military aid for Ukraine.
To date, the $42 billion in US military aid dwarfs that of all other countries combined. So while those pesky Czechs may now be scrounging together a few months’ worth of artillery shells for Ukraine, Putin believes that without Uncle Sam’s help, Kyiv would fold within “a week.”
Add to all of that the very real possibility of the world’s most prominent Putinophile, Donald Trump, returning to the US presidency this fall, and it’s not hard to see why Putin really is, despite everything, kind of sort of… winning.
He just needs to do one thing: wait.
The way things are headed now, it’s not unreasonable for him to assume that, before long, Ukraine will suffer a deficit not only of men, money, and materiel, but also morale. That will open the way to further gains that can force Kyiv and its Western backers to accept Putin’s terms.
That all, at least, is the argument for why Russia – despite all – is “winning.” Stay tuned for tomorrow’s counterpoint, which will ask: What exactly is Vladimir Putin really “winning”?
- Russia is winning? Winning what? - GZERO Media ›
- What Ukraine needs after two years of war with Russia - GZERO Media ›
- What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains - GZERO Media ›
- Putin wins another classic Soviet election - GZERO Media ›
- Putin "wins" Russia election, but at what cost? - GZERO Media ›
Ukraine extends its reach ... and to some strange places
With the frontlines stuck, and its conventional munitions dwindling, Kyiv is looking to expand its reach against Russian interests – both near and far.
Ukraine’s army is now working with private companies to boost the production of a new class of kamikaze drones that can fly up to 1,000km (621 miles) – far enough to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
That’s in addition to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pledge to build millions more “First Person View” drones – consumer models adapted with explosives – which have helped Ukraine to even the playing field against a larger enemy.
The drones expand Kyiv’s menu of options, says Alex Brideau of Eurasia Group. “They could attempt to hit Russian export facilities for oil and grain in an attempt to choke off revenues that support the war effort.” In recent days, Ukraine has done just that.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also taking its fight against Russia to ... Sudan? Ukrainian forces are reportedly helping the Sudanese army in its civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which are allegedly backed by Wagner Group.
That certainly sends a strong “we’ll fight you everywhere” message – but it’s not clear how much it helps with Kyiv’s core issues: entrenched front lines and uncertainty about US aid.
Ukraine’s president fires his top general
After a week of confusion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pulled the trigger. He announced Thursday that he had fired Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, 10 days earlier.
For now, the divorce appears amicable. Both men posted a social media photo of the two exchanging smiles and a handshake. Zaluzhny wrote that “A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy.” Zelensky posted his gratitude for his general’s “two years of protecting Ukraine.”
The new top general will reportedly be Colonel GeneralOleksandr Syrsky, a man some experts warn is “widely disliked” by many of Ukraine’s frontline troops.
The shake-up isn’t a shock. Zelensky signaled earlier this week that he wants “a reset, a new beginning” for both his government and military. Last year’s deeply disappointing counteroffensive exposed differences between the president and his lead general. It also demanded a political move to reinvigorate public confidence that Ukraine can still win the war.
Will this move yield results? A number of Russian military reshuffles since the invasion have done little more than create an increasingly dangerous battlefield stalemate that encourages the taking of bigger risks on both sides.
Zelensky fights for funding
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in many ways battling two wars at once – one against Russian invaders, and another to maintain financial and military support from Western allies. Lately, he’s been facing a deadlock in both.
On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke in front of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and implored the West to ramp up aid. The Ukrainian leader presented the war as a threat not just to his country but to Europe as well, making the case that strengthening Ukraine’s economy would strengthen European security.
"If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken,” Zelensky said.
Frozen conflict, frozen funding. The frontline in the war has barely moved in recent months, as Ukraine creeps toward the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion. But Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin will keep wanting more. “Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products,” Zelensky said
Zelensky’s address came as internal debates in the US and EU continue to delay new aid packages to Kyiv, which has been heavily reliant on outside assistance. But the Ukrainian leader also noted that he’d seen “positive signals” that more EU funding would come soon.
The EU has moved to send €50 billion in economic assistance to Ukraine but has faced a roadblock in the form of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Still, EU leaders have signaled they might take steps to bypass Hungary’s veto when the bloc meets for a summit on Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, there seems to be less hope that the US Congress, which is currently working to avoid a partial government shutdown and has been divided over issues like border security, will be sending more aid to Ukraine anytime soon. But US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday told Zelensky in Davos that the Biden administration is “determined to sustain [its] support for Ukraine and [is] working very closely with Congress in order to work to do that.”
Macron to the rescue. As Ukraine anxiously awaits large aid packages from the EU and US, French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday said that Paris in the near future would provide Ukraine with 40 long-range cruise missiles and hundreds of bombs.
Russian hackers knock millions of Ukrainians offline
Russian ground forces haven’t made much progress in Ukraine. Nearly two years after an invasion that was supposed to quickly and easily deliver Kyiv to Kremlin control, the Russian military controls just 18% of Ukraine’s territory and must resort to embarrassing stunts to keep adding new soldiers to the fight. Moscow, for example, is offering foreign nationals Russian citizenship in exchange for fighting in Ukraine.
But you might have missed this story about the true Russian talent that can still dramatically change the game for Ukraine and its allies. Ukraine's head of cybersecurity told Reuters this week that Russian hackers managed to burrow into Kyivstar, Ukrainian biggest telecoms company, as of May 2023, and knocked 24 million users offline for several days last month. In the process, it also wiped clean thousands of virtual servers and personal computers. The spy chief says the attack was probably the work of Sandworm, a Russian military intelligence cyber warfare unit with a long history of successful strikes.
This story reminds us of two important points: Ukrainian officials continue to make the case in Western media that Russia can do to others what it has done in Ukraine, and Russia still wields formidable, sophisticated unconventional weapons that bolster its struggling conventional forces.