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Volodymyr Zelensky
Zelensky risks public anger with new draft plan
Ukraine’s parliament passed this law in May 2023, and former military commander Valery Zaluzhny warned last year that Ukraine needed up to 500,000 more men to repel Russian invaders. In a highly controversial op-ed published in February by CNN, he noted Russia’s “significant advantage … in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.”
Zelensky, who fired Zaluzhny soon after that piece was published, had been reluctant to sign a law he knew would be unpopular. But growing fears that Russia intends to intensify its attacks in coming months have forced his hand.
Ukraine’s president must now hope this move will also signal Ukraine’s urgent need for more weapons and money from its Western allies.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky posted this picture with commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in announcing his replacement on Thursday Feb 8, 2024.
Ukraine’s president fires his top general
After a week of confusion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pulled the trigger. He announced Thursday that he had fired Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, 10 days earlier.
For now, the divorce appears amicable. Both men posted a social media photo of the two exchanging smiles and a handshake. Zaluzhny wrote that “A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy.” Zelensky posted his gratitude for his general’s “two years of protecting Ukraine.”
The new top general will reportedly be Colonel GeneralOleksandr Syrsky, a man some experts warn is “widely disliked” by many of Ukraine’s frontline troops.
The shake-up isn’t a shock. Zelensky signaled earlier this week that he wants “a reset, a new beginning” for both his government and military. Last year’s deeply disappointing counteroffensive exposed differences between the president and his lead general. It also demanded a political move to reinvigorate public confidence that Ukraine can still win the war.
Will this move yield results? A number of Russian military reshuffles since the invasion have done little more than create an increasingly dangerous battlefield stalemate that encourages the taking of bigger risks on both sides.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gives a speech at the World Economic Forum.
Zelensky fights for funding
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in many ways battling two wars at once – one against Russian invaders, and another to maintain financial and military support from Western allies. Lately, he’s been facing a deadlock in both.
On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke in front of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and implored the West to ramp up aid. The Ukrainian leader presented the war as a threat not just to his country but to Europe as well, making the case that strengthening Ukraine’s economy would strengthen European security.
"If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken,” Zelensky said.
Frozen conflict, frozen funding. The frontline in the war has barely moved in recent months, as Ukraine creeps toward the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion. But Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin will keep wanting more. “Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products,” Zelensky said
Zelensky’s address came as internal debates in the US and EU continue to delay new aid packages to Kyiv, which has been heavily reliant on outside assistance. But the Ukrainian leader also noted that he’d seen “positive signals” that more EU funding would come soon.
The EU has moved to send €50 billion in economic assistance to Ukraine but has faced a roadblock in the form of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Still, EU leaders have signaled they might take steps to bypass Hungary’s veto when the bloc meets for a summit on Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, there seems to be less hope that the US Congress, which is currently working to avoid a partial government shutdown and has been divided over issues like border security, will be sending more aid to Ukraine anytime soon. But US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday told Zelensky in Davos that the Biden administration is “determined to sustain [its] support for Ukraine and [is] working very closely with Congress in order to work to do that.”
Macron to the rescue. As Ukraine anxiously awaits large aid packages from the EU and US, French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday said that Paris in the near future would provide Ukraine with 40 long-range cruise missiles and hundreds of bombs.
US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.
Zelensky had his work cut out for him in Washington DC
After a marathon few days in New York where he attended the UN General Assembly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Washington on Thursday where he attempted to convince US lawmakers that continuing to fund Ukraine’s war effort is an investment worth making. On Friday, Zelensky traveled to Canada for the first time since the war began.
In Washington, Zelensky met with President Joe Biden at the White House, after which a Biden aide said that the administration would continue to provide Kyiv with military aid, emphasizing new air defenses.
But the White House stopped short of committing to provide Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS – ballistic missiles with a range of up to 190 miles that could fit in Ukraine’s existing rocket launchers – that Zelensky has been requesting since last year.
“US reluctance has been driven primarily by concerns that providing ATACMS to the Ukrainians could lead to a jump in US-Russia tensions,” says Eurasia Group’s Russia expert Alex Brideau, noting that this is “either because of the transfer itself, or if Ukraine were to use the missiles on targets on Russian territory.”
The Ukrainian president had his work cut out for him on Capitol Hill, where he was trying to convince lawmakers to green-light $24 billion in military aid requested by the White House. During the visit, Biden confirmed an extra $325 million in military aid would be doled out, but it is a far cry from the total awaiting approval from Congress.
Dealing with growing opposition to additional funds for Ukraine within his caucus, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy refused to let Zelensky address a joint session of Congress, saying he was able to do so last December. While other lawmakers – particular Senate leadership – were much more deferential to Zelensky, one key question kept coming up on the Hill: What is the plan for victory?
Protest in Yerevan following Azerbaijani military operation launch in Nagorno-Karabakh.
UN Security Council debates Nagorno-Karabakh
It was a quieter day at UN headquarters on Thursday. With US President Biden back at the White House – accompanied by Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky – the crowds had thinned somewhat and fewer delegates could be found attending the debate in the UN General Assembly hall.
Much of the focus was on the crisis in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, where this week Azerbaijan launched a fresh assault on ethnic-Armenian separatists there, who then reportedly agreed to surrender and disarm as part of a ceasefire. Azerbaijan now looks set to take control of the enclave that's seen decades of conflict.
(For more on the recent flare up and its historical context, see our write up here.)
This was the focus of an urgent UN Security Council meeting called by the Armenian and French delegation on Thursday afternoon. Though they aren’t currently Council members, both Armenia and Azerbaijan attended the session to voice their grievances.
The focus of the Armenian representative reflected a sentiment that has been heard many times throughout the week, namely, that the UN Security Council is broken.
Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan said that the chamber had failed to respond to previous warnings from Yerevan that the Azeris had been upping their attacks on the enclave. Indeed, this came a day after President Zelensky took aim at the Security Council for falling short of its stated mission by letting Russia torpedo efforts to stop the war. (See GZERO's explainer on Instagram on this ensuing debate.)
Despite Karabakh’s acceptance of a ceasefire, shelling continues, Mirzoyan said. The US, for its part, backed this claim, with UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield telling the Council that the “situation on the ground remains dire.”
What’s on deck tomorrow?
Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu will address the Assembly, along with Dutch PM Mark Rutte, Bangladesh’s PM Sheikh Hasina, and Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is seen on a video monitor in a booth above the United Nations Security Council floor.
Zelensky takes aim at the UN Security Council
It was another big day at the UN General Assembly. Again, much of the attention centered around Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky who attended a prickly meeting at the UN Security Council.
Ukraine, for its part, is not currently a member of the UNSC, but was invited to attend the session where, sitting across from the Russian Ambassador, Zelensky called Russia a “terrorist state.” Zelensky left the chamber before Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sat down, avoiding a potential confrontation.
Still, much of the Ukrainian president’s speech was directed not at the Russian delegation but at the Security Council itself. He joined the chorus of others calling for urgent reform of the powerful body, arguing that Russia's veto power is undermining the Council's mission. “Ukrainian soldiers are doing with their blood what the UN the Security Council should do by its voting,” he said.
While President Joe Biden said this week in his address before the General Assembly that the US supports such reform efforts, it’s hard to imagine that any of the permanent members of the Council that have the veto power– the US, UK, China, Russia, and France – would be willing to dilute their own clout.
Crucially, Zelensky proposed a change to rules that would allow the UN General Assembly – composed of 193 states – to override UNSC resolutions with a two-thirds majority. But as things are currently structured, that vote itself would be subject to … a UN Security Council veto.
Continuing his shuttle-diplomacy efforts, Zelensky met with Chile’s President Gabriel Boric, where he said the two discussed the prospect of coordinating a Ukraine-Latin America summit. Boric’s embrace of Zelensky has been notably different from other Latin American states, including Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, that have in fact abstained from at least one UN resolution condemning Russian aggression.
Finally, Zelensky also met with his German counterpart Chancellor Olaf Scholz in what was broadly seen as an attempt to get Berlin to earmark more military aid for Kyiv.
Another interesting side meeting took place between Biden and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. It was hardly the White House meeting Bibi had been hoping for – particularly after the Biden side released a cool statement saying the two had a “candid and constructive” conversation on issues including “upholding our democratic values.” This was likely a nod to the White House’s disapproval of the Israeli government’s current attempt to gut the power of the independent judiciary that’s led to some of the biggest protests in Israel on record.
Still, in the broader realm of geopolitics it was a pretty good day for Bibi: On Wednesday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a rare interview to FOX News where he said that Israel and Saudi were inching close to a normalization deal, a huge foreign policy priority for the Netanyahu government.
A damaged office building following a reported Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow.
More drone strikes on Moscow
Early Tuesday, a drone struck a Moscow skyscraper that houses Russian government ministries. It was the second drone attack on that building in just 48 hours. Ukraine’s government has not yet acknowledged responsibility, but its military is suspected for obvious reasons.
Though Ukraine has no way of matching the intensity and destructive power of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, there are several reasons why these drone strikes matter.
They demonstrate that authorities in Kyiv, once reluctant to speak publicly about attacks inside Russia, have become less concerned about Putin’s threats of retaliatory escalation. In recent days, senior officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have said publicly that targeting “symbolic centers and military bases” inside Russia is “inevitable, natural and absolutely fair.”
The attacks also make it more difficult for Vladimir Putin’s government to persuade Russians that its “special military operation” in Ukraine will impose few costs and no risks for Russian civilians. They grab the attention of Russia’s political and business elite by hitting targets close to their offices. They undermine confidence in Russia’s military by underlining its repeated failure to prevent attacks on the heart of the capital, which may have been launched from hundreds of miles away.
Finally, they signal that despite stepped-up Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, Ukraine’s government and military are only becoming more aggressive.
US President Joe Biden disembarks Air Force One as he visits Stansted Airport in the UK.
Will Biden meet Zelensky at the NATO summit in Vilnius?
On Sunday, US President Joe Biden kicked off a five-day trip to Europe. His first stop is the UK, where he will meet with King Charles III for the first time since the British monarch’s coronation, as well as PM Rishi Sunak. But the most important leg of Biden's European tour will be July 11-12 in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius for the 74th NATO Summit, where the controversial question of whether Ukraine could (or should) ever join the alliance looms large.
Before departing, the US president made the controversial decision to supply Kyiv with deadly cluster bomb munitions. Washington says the move was necessary because the Ukrainians are running low on ammo, even though the weapons are banned in many countries because they tend to kill or maim large numbers of civilians. Still, it's unlikely this will hamper Biden's efforts to shore up NATO unity on economic and military support for Ukraine. The bigger question is: Will Ukraine be given a path to membership?
Poland and the Baltic states, the alliance’s biggest Russia hawks, want NATO to offer Kyiv a pathway to membership — something that was vaguely promised as far back as 2008. But the US and Germany think that Ukraine isn’t ready yet, politically or militarily, and are worried that welcoming Ukraine would eventually drag the alliance into a direct conflict with Russia. Biden prefers something more like an “Israel” model in which its Western backers help arm Ukraine to the teeth, but not formally accept it into NATO.President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited to the summit, but he is threatening to snub it if there's no progress toward Ukraine joining the club.