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Putin's drone battle for Ukraine's skies
The battlefield in Ukraine has moved from the ground to the skies, with Russia ramping up drone production and launching bigger, more powerful aerial attacks across the border. As Moscow leans further into drone warfare, how much longer can Ukraine hold out? Christopher Miller, chief Ukraine correspondent at the Financial Times, joins Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World to discuss how drones have changed life on the front lines and in Ukraine’s cities.
The war looks very different from the one Vladimir Putin launched over three years ago, when tanks rolled across the border and soldiers advanced in heavy columns. Now, thousands of attack-style drones and smaller tactical and FPV drones swarm Ukraine’s skies, redefining how nations fight and how civilians live. Putin has reoriented Russia’s military and entire economy to become an industrial drone powerhouse, eroding Ukraine’s early advantage. Can Kyiv regain its edge? How long can Ukraine hold out and is a peace deal at all a possibility?
“There are now tens of thousands of drones in the air at any given time in eastern Ukraine and southern Ukraine being used by both the Russian and Ukrainian armies,” Miller says, “That has changed everything.”
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President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a briefing, Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2025.
Elections coming in Ukraine?
But speculation is growing that Zelensky may be changing his mind. Ukraine’s president could promise elections in return for a ceasefire from Putin and move ahead with a national vote as early as this summer. Ukrainian officials have dismissed a recent report from The Economist that plans are under active consideration in Kyiv, and the man considered Zelensky’s strongest potential rival, former commander of Ukraine's army and now Ukraine’s ambassador in London, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has refused to comment.
But a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 69% of Ukrainians say they trust Zelensky, a small rise from the previous month. With Ukraine’s future uncertain as Russia continues to push for new battlefield gains, Zelensky might be as popular now as he’s likely to get.
If elections were held and Zelensky won, the Ukrainian president’s credibility would be strengthened both inside and outside Ukraine, pushing the focus of peace negotiations back onto the Kremlin’s intransigence.
UK leaders meet to discuss European security
Europe to “spend, spend, spend” on defense – but how?
EU leaders met in Brussels on Thursday to answer two big questions: How can Europe defend Ukraine in the short term and defend itself in the long term?
“We are very thankful that we are not alone,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was celebrated at the summit just a week after his disastrous visit to the White House.
The context? Trump. He has cut support for Ukraine to force the country into possible peace talks with Russia, browbeaten the EU over free speech, and threatened it with tariffs while raising doubts about the US commitment to European defense.
To muscle up, the EU must “spend, spend, spend,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed an $860 billion “ReArm Europe” plan, including new loan facilities of about $160 billion.
But finding that money won’t be easy, particularly after years of debt-fueled pandemic stimulus. The bloc is considering loosening strict limits on debt levels so that member states can borrow money for defense spending.
What’s more, tariff jitters are adding to concerns about Europe’s sluggish economies. On Thursday, the ECB cut rates for the sixth time in nine months in a bid to boost growth.
And the bloc faces a familiar problem: spoilers. The 27 member states all support more robust military spending, but Hungary, the bloc’s most Russia-friendly member, opted out of the summit statement supporting Ukraine.
What’s next: Another EU summit in about 10 days.
A civilian enterprise in Kharkiv, Ukraine, after being struck by a Russian drone, on January 28, 2025.
Why it matters that Putin won't talk to Zelensky
If it didn’t concern one of the world’s deadliest conflicts, it would read like a bad soap opera: Russian President Vladimir Putin says he’s ready for peace talks regarding the Ukraine war but that he’ll only talk directly to US President Donald Trump, not Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Meanwhile Zelensky, for his part, says Putin is simply “afraid.”
Putin’s position is that because Zelensky postponed the Ukrainian election that was scheduled for last year, he is not a “legitimate” president. The election was canceled, of course, due to the war that began when Putin invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago.
But this all complicates things. Zelensky worries Putin is seeking to “manipulate” Trump into mediating a deal that is unfavorable to Ukraine. He has reason to be worried at least in one respect: Trump has much more pull with Ukraine than he does with Russia.
If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine, it would immediately cripple Kyiv. But with Russia, he has less leverage. His recent tariff threat against Russia was, as we noted here, hollow (Russia exports almost nothing to the US), and further sanctions on the world’s most sanctioned country would hardly move the needle.
Meanwhile, adding to the soap drama, Trump and Putin are signaling that they’re interested in having a phone call, but that each is waiting for the other to reach out.
The terrible TV of it aside, it’s a reminder that although Trump campaigned in part on a promise to swiftly end the Ukraine war, there are major challenges, even for the Artist of the Deal himself.
Meanwhile, the conflict rages on: Russia this week seized another key town near the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, while Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Russian energy infrastructure.
Photos published by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Jan 11, 2025 shows two North Korean military personnel captured by Ukraine forces soldiers in the Kursk region. Two soldiers, though wounded, survived and were transported to Kyiv, where they are now communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine, Zelenskyy said. This was not an easy task: Russian forces and other North Korean military personnel usually execute their wounded to erase any evidence of North Korea’s involvement in the war against Ukraine, he said. I am grateful to the soldiers of Tactical Group No. 84 of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as our paratroopers, who captured these two individuals.
North Korean troops reportedly face brutal treatment in Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Saturday that his troops had captured two North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region and released a video of them describing their experience fighting for Russia. Zelensky said, “This was not an easy task: Russian forces and other North Korean military personnel usually execute their wounded to erase any evidence of North Korea’s involvement in the war against Ukraine.”
The two soldiers are now receiving medical attention in Kyiv. Video of interviews with them shows one with a facial wound and one with a broken leg. One claimed he had believed his unit was going to Russia for training, not to fight Ukrainians, and showed that he had been issued false Russian documents.
Ukrainian forces fighting the North Koreans have described them as highly motivated and professional, but their outdated tactics and habit of committing suicide to avoid capture have led to high casualties. A North Korean diary published by Ukraine’s military described using soldiers as bait to draw in drones that other troops could then shoot down, a risky tactic that, if used widely, has likely contributed to between 1,000 and 4,000 casualties out of the roughly 12,000 who were originally deployed.
That attrition rate is simply not sustainable, and though Pyongyang has over 1.2 million military men, there are few highly indoctrinated and capable special forces. That might not be a big issue if incoming US President Donald Trump ends the war promptly as he has promised, but we’re watching for signs of impatience from Pyongyang.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and Republican presidential nominee former US President Donald Trump, meeting on September 27, 2024 in New York City, NY, USA.
For Ukraine, a Trump victory could mean defeat
While Justin Trudeau is likely to be nervously watching the US election, the stakes will be considerably higher for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country’s war against Russian invaders depends on sustained American military assistance.
The Financial Times reported this week that Trump plans to freeze the conflict along the current front line, keep Ukraine out of NATO, and have Europeans enforce the peace. He has previously said the war could be ended within 24 hours, without elaborating on how he’d accomplish this. The Ukrainians might not have much choice but to go along with a Trump plan, given their reliance on US aid, but the Russians have said halting the war might not be so easy.
Zelensky is no doubt hoping for a Harris victory, which would likely mean continued US support for the Ukrainian resistance. But there is tension between the two countries. The Ukrainian leader complained Wednesday that the United States leaked information about Ukraine’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles, which the Americans consider unrealistic.
The war is escalating just as the US election takes place. North Korean troops are reportedly already in Kursk, the Russian border province where Ukraine has captured 250 square miles of territory. Ukraine is pushing for US approval to fire long-range missiles into Russia, but Washington, afraid of escalating the conflict, has so far refused.
Ukraine’s August surprise attack on Kursk captured headlines and bolstered Zelensky’s argument that Ukrainian forces can win. But the Kursk offensive has not stopped Russia’s advance within Ukraine, as he had hoped. With fresh soldiers from North Korea potentially joining the fight alongside Russia, Ukraine will be under pressure to hang onto its foothold, while hoping Harris wins and provides more powerful weapons.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi emplanes for two-nation state visit to Poland and Ukraine, in New Delhi on Wednesday.
India’s Modi makes first-ever visit to Kyiv
India’s balancing act. New Delhi has long-standing economic and military ties to Moscow and has called for diplomacy but refused to condemn the invasion. India continues to buy Russian oil at a discount.
But India is also an important ally of the United States, owing to their shared concerns about China. Modi’s visit to Kyiv is meant in part to ease concerns in Washington while also showing Russia that he has his own prerogatives. Putin will not love the fact that Modi is in Kyiv while Ukraine still occupies Russian territory and is swarming Moscow with drones.
Could India make progress towards peace? It’s a long shot. The US, and especially China, are better equipped to offer the necessary economic and security guarantees. Still, India will play an important supporting role in any settlement. Modi’s trip is at least partly about exploring what that might be.Ukrainian service members ride an Armoured Personnel Carrier, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the Russian border in Sumy region, Ukraine August 11, 2024.
Russia warns of “tough response” to Ukraine offensive
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed this weekend that Ukraine is conducting a cross-border offensive into Russia’s western Kursk region, marking the deepest incursion into Russian territory since that country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ukrainian forces have advanced more than six miles inside Russia, prompting the evacuation of over 76,000 people from border areas.
Zelensky said the move was designed to “restore justice” and exert pressure on Moscow. According to a senior Ukrainian security official, “The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses, and to destabilize the situation in Russia,” adding “There is no idea of annexation.”
Russia's foreign ministry has warned of a “tough response” to the incursion. As of Sunday evening, Russia’s army claimed to have halted Ukraine’s advance, hitting targets in areas up to 20 miles from the Russian border, and stepped up attacks on Kyiv, killing a father and son on Saturday. Moscow’s Defense Ministry reported the destruction of 14 Ukrainian drones and four Tochka-U missiles over Kursk, denouncing the operation as “barbaric” and lacking military sense.
Russia has raised concerns about potential attacks on the Kursk nuclear plant, located just 37 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has called for both sides to “exercise maximum restraint to prevent a nuclear accident with severe radiological risks.” In response, Ukrainian officials assured, “We absolutely will not cause problems for nuclear security. This we can guarantee.”