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President of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, dressed in the national costume, dances as part of The Day Of Chechen Language celebrations in Grozny April 25, 2010. The Day Of The Chechen Language holiday was established by Kadyrov in 2007 to promote the national language.
Hard Numbers: Chechnya bans beats, Poland’s right stays strong, Biden cancels student debt (again), Argentina battles dengue, “Hardest Geezer” runs Africa
116: Can you feel the beat? If you’re in Chechnya, from now on you are only rocking between 80 and 116 beats per minute. That’s because a new law bans any music faster or slower than that range. The Goldilocks move, taken by the quasi-Islamist dictatorship of Ramzan Kadyrov, aims to shield the North Caucasus republic – which is part of Russia – from insidious Western influences. But don’t worry – as GZERO design captain Ari Winkleman points out, you can still listen to Radiohead’s “Creep” (92 bpm) on repeat in the streets of Grozny.
52.5: Polish PM Donald Tusk’s centrist governing coalition won just 52.5% of the vote in Sunday’s municipal elections, a narrow victory that underscored the persistent strength of the far-right Law and Justice Party, which took close to 34%, the largest share of any single party. Tusk’s coalition ousted Law and Justice from national power in bitterly fought general elections last fall but has continued to clash with the party over rule-of-law issues and appointments ever since.
25 million: The Biden administration on Monday announced a sweeping new program of student debt forgiveness that it said would give relief to some 25 million borrowers, including those who are either facing economic hardship, owe more now than they did at the start of their payback periods, or who have had debt for more than 20 years. The new plan replaces an earlier one that was struck down by the Supreme Court but is expected to face some legal challenges of its own.
232,996: Argentina is facing its biggest-ever outbreak of dengue fever, with some 232,996 cases of the virus already registered this season, nearly double last year’s figure. Experts say that warmer temperatures, potentially linked to global warming, are extending the breeding season for the mosquitos that carry the disease. Dengue is sometimes fatal and never fun – high fevers, severe body aches, vomiting, and it can be more lethal the second time you get it.
9,940: If you think your little 20-minute morning run is something special, consider the feat achieved by the UK’s Russ Cook, otherwise known as “The Hardest Geezer.” Cook just finished running from South Africa to Tunisia – ie, the entire continent of Africa. The 9,940-mile journey, which he ran for charity, took him almost a year to complete. To celebrate, the 27-year-old endurance athlete knocked back a strawberry daiquiri.
Putin using Moscow attack as excuse to intensify war on Ukraine
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
A Quick Take to kick off your week. Lots we could be talking about. But I want to go to Russia, where we have had a major terrorist attack with over 130 Russian citizens gunned down, killed by terrorists.
The United States has warned the Russians both publicly so that American citizens would know about the concern, but also with actionable intelligence privately over the past couple of weeks that ISIS was planning an attack on an area with major crowds in Moscow. Putin publicly dismissing that, kind of wish he hadn't, but that we are where we are. And Putin has now spoken to the nation. There have been a number of gunmen that have been rounded up and arrested four, that we know of, Tajik citizens and Putin did not mention that ISIS has taken credit for this terrorist attack, nor that they then released videos of some of the attackers as they were engaging in terrorism inside the rock concert venue.
Instead, he spoke implausibly about links to Ukraine that don't actually exist. Why would ISIS-K do this? I mean, the main reason is because one of their two home bases, Syria and Iraq, in Syria, destroyed by Bashar al-Assad with the direct help from Putin and the Russian military. Nobody else doing that with Assad on the ground. And there have been many terrorist attempts against Russians as a consequence in that regard, but none with spectacular success for them like we've just witnessed.
Why wouldn't Ukraine be responsible? Well, first of all, because they haven't actually been targeting civilians at all. In fact, the one time that they engaged in terrorism and it was terrorism was an attempt to kill an individual, high level Russian extremist, but who was not a political figure. He had been informally an inspiration to the Kremlin and been calling for pogroms against Ukraine, which he said shouldn't exist as a nation. And they didn't get him. Instead, they got his daughter and the United States and other NATO allies were quite angry about the fact that Ukrainians were engaged in that. But aside from that, it's been attacks on critical infrastructure. That's another thing. And certainly, if you want to talk about the Nord Stream pipeline, highly unlikely the Russians would have blown up their pipeline. Much more likely the Ukrainians either by themselves with support would have been responsible for that. The investigations have been inconclusive. That strikes me as not enormously plausible.
Also, Ukraine has been hitting a lot of refineries, Russian refineries, and that's a pretty big deal. About 5% of Russian exports are now offline. Oil exports. That could go up a lot. It could be more than half easily in coming weeks to months of over 3 million barrels a day that the Russians export. If Ukraine starts hitting Black Sea facilities, which they're certainly capable of doing. So global economic impact of this war continues to be very significant. Ability and willingness of the Ukrainians to hit targets inside Russia as well as occupied Crimea, Ukrainian territory, but the Russians annexed it back in 2014 illegally, all of that is certainly par for the course. But the idea that the Ukrainians would be involved in large scale terrorism or support it is not only implausible on the basis of the evidence, but also implausible in terms of what they've been doing historically. But of course, that doesn't matter to Putin, who now intends to use this to drive more military efforts against Ukraine, more civilian casualties.
And that's what we saw in the initial 48 hours after the attack. Unprecedented levels of missiles being sent against the capital, Kyiv, with lots of civilian targets as well as west Ukraine, Lviv in particular. We are seeing that Putin is indifferent to civilian deaths, those of the Ukrainians and, of course, those of his own people. And we probably do now see a much more mobilization from Russia, especially now that the election, the so-called election, is over and more Russian weapons that are going to be used against the Ukrainian people.
The most concerning piece of all of this, I mean, leaving aside the fact that Russia now has a second front they need to fight on, they have, you know, a concern with radical Islamic terrorism that has grown in terms of the capabilities and whether or not Putin says he's going to fight it, he's going to need to fight it. And that's going to take away scarce resources for him and it's going to put more Russian civilians at risk. But the bigger concern, the global concern, of course, is the potential for this war to expand. And there are a couple of incidents that should raise those warning bells. First, the fact that just over this weekend, of all of the missiles that were launched by Russia against Ukraine, one went through Polish airspace for less than a minute, something like 40 seconds, but nonetheless, a Russian missile that actually went through the airspace of a NATO ally. Clearly wasn't targeting that NATO ally.
But Polish and other NATO allied aircraft scrambled. And that is not something we have seen so far since the war started a couple of years ago. Also, the fact that there were a missile explosion targeting Odessa just a couple of weeks ago when President Zelensky was there, in addition to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. And it was literally only a few hundred yards away that this missile exploded while those two men, those two leaders were on the ground and exposed very clearly. I don't believe that Mitsotakis was targeted, but the fact that he could have been hit as an NATO leader would have also put us in unprecedented danger in terms of the geopolitical order.
Certainly since anything we'd seen since 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis. What's behind that? Well, I mean, I think the most likely thing behind is that Putin doesn't have complete and operational control over everything that's going on on the ground. His military is badly trained and organized. And this was probably a mistake. Woops. But, you know, the fact is that when you have lots of people go into Ukraine and borders, look, you know, they look very defined on a map, but they're very porous in real life. And the potential for mistakes to lead to extraordinary escalation, pretty high. And certainly the willingness to allow for those mistakes to be made is higher than you would like it to be. The checks and balances there don't seem to be all that concerning for the Kremlin or for Vladimir Putin. Of course, a worse explanation would be that Putin actually is prepared to take those risks to brush NATO back. And that, of course, would lead to much more likelihood that we would have escalation that would bring a NATO ally into the war, something that clearly nobody out there wants to see.
But it's worth talking about in the context of all of this, it's much more likely the Ukrainians are now going to get their 60 billion of support. That would be the largest piece of military support so far from the United States, approved likely in mid to late April. They're seeing more ammunition, more economic, more military support from the Europeans, even though the lion share of the military support is from the US and the war continues to be dangerous, continues to be unstable and continues to be no end in sight.
So that's where we are after some very unfortunate headlines and events over the last couple of days. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Farmers Gather To Protest In Warsaw. Polish farmers hold a banner that reads Stop poisoned food from Ukraine in Polish shops in Warsaw, Poland, on February 27, 2024.
Ukraine accepts EU trade restrictions to appease Poland
In an attempt to ease tensions with their Polish neighbors, Kyiv says it is prepared to accept EU restrictions on Ukrainian agriculture exports.
The situation: Following Russia’s invasion two years ago, the EU showed solidarity to Kyiv by slashing agriculture tariffs on Ukraine, a leading grain exporter. As a result, Ukrainian grain flooded Poland and other neighboring markets, undercutting local prices.
Polish farmers and truckers have been protesting in response. Ukraine is keen to stay on good terms with one of its biggest military backers, and is only asking for EU sanctions on Russian agricultural products in return for accepting restrictions.
Poland’s prime minister has backed that compromise, but an EU-wide ban would be difficult to achieve, as several member states fear it would destabilize global markets and aggravate economic and social crises in developing countries. Russia is, after all, the world’s largest exporter of grain, and its global exports rose 36% last year, including 1.54 million tonnes of grain to the EU itself.
Officials from the two countries will meet again next Monday and hope to resolve the dispute before the end of the month.
Admiral Rob Bauer, seen here in Tallinn, Estonia, in September 2022.
NATO bares its teeth
Almost two years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s existential battle continues. The static frontlines look a lot like a stalemate, and US public and political opinions toward further funding for Ukraine are in doubt, but fears of regional escalation remain. Just this week, for example, the Belarusian defense minister said he would put forward a new military doctrine allowing for the use of nuclear weapons.
In response to possible aggression falling into NATO territory, the alliance is hellbent on preparedness. Addressing fellow NATO leaders in Brussels on Wednesday, Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee, warned of the need to prepare for an era “in which anything can happen at any time. An era in which we need to expect the unexpected.” Bauer and his colleagues are meeting to discuss attempts to do just that with Steadfast Defender, the largest military exercise in Europe since the Cold War.
Showing off friendly muscle. The NATO training exercises, to be held from February to June in Germany, Poland, and the Baltics, will involve more than 40,000 troops from across the 31-nation alliance (plus pending member Sweden). The work will test the troops’ ability to quickly mobilize in case of a Russian attack while showing off the alliance’s strength and unity.
Not to be outdone, Russia will also host military drills this year with “Ocean-2024,” bringing together all branches of the Russian Armed Forces and units of “foreign states,” according to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Donald Tusk, the chairman of the Civic Platform (PO) party.
The showdown continues in Poland
What ignited the current fight? The imprisonment of two members of Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party – which governed for eight years before losing in the autumn election – following their convictions on corruption charges. The political stakes then climbed higher when Poland’s president (and Kaczyński ally), Andrzej Duda, sided with the jailed lawmakers and referred to them as “political prisoners.”
Poland could find itself in a constitutional crisis because the very courts Tusk wants to purge of Kaczyński’s political cronies are ruling against him. They are blocking his attempts to free the country’s political institutions from Kaczyński’s strong arm. It’s not clear how the impasse can be resolved.
Adding to the mess, the EU has pledged to unfreeze funds that Poland badly needs only after Tusk has managed to depoliticize Poland’s courts and state media, but President Duda has the power to veto many of Tusk’s plans, creating a stalemate that undermines Tusk’s popularity.
That’s why this ugly political wrestling match will likely continue at least until 2025, when Duda finishes his final term as president.
Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Zelensky's US visit lead to more aid for Ukraine?
I think so. Unclear why he had to go to Argentina for Milei's inauguration just before. That feels decidedly B-list for a guy that's running a war. But the US trip is important. And of course, he's seeing all of the senate Dems and Republicans, speaker of the House, as well as Biden and a bunch of defense contractors. Biden really wants this to happen. So do leaders of the Democratic and Republican Party. Biden has to compromise for support, both money as well as policy compromise on border security to get the Republicans to support it. I expect that will happen. So on balance, it's close, but I think you're going to get additional military support and cash from the Americans for 2024. That does not allow the Ukrainians to take more territory back, but it does allow them to maintain their existing defenses, which is pretty important.
Will Prime Minister Tusk's return to power help make Poland a leader in Europe?
Absolutely. And I think we're already seeing that in terms of Poland's role on Ukraine. We're seeing it in terms of engagement with von der Leyen on fiscal transfers and on general alignment on where Europe's policies are going on issues like transition energy, industrial policy, AI, you name it. I think that this is a big win for Europe and it's certainly a big win for the Polish people.
Is Prime Minister Sunak on the rocks in Britain?
No much more than he has been, frankly. I mean, he is potentially going to face a no confidence vote because of opposition to his migration, latest migration policy, but it won't pass. He's certainly out in the next election in the coming year and Labor's coming back. But compared to recent prime ministers in the UK, Sunak's been doing a pretty decent job. Essentially, he's a caretaker PM, post-Brexit. That's where we are.
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Israeli take part in a gathering and prayer by the Western Wall in the Old City of Jerusalem, Judaism's holiest prayer site, calling for the release of the hostages taken by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in the October 7 attack, in Jerusalem, November 7, 2023
Hard Numbers: The Hamas hostage deal that wasn’t, Brazil nabs Hezbollah agents, former US spook pleads guilty to sex crimes, Polish truckers block Ukrainian border, global warming reaches new record (again)
2: Brazilian police detained two people with links to Hezbollah on suspicion of planning terrorist attacks against Jews in Brazil. Lebanon-based Hezbollah has long been known to operate financial and smuggling networks in South America, in particular in the so-called Tri-Border Area, a semi-lawless region where the frontiers of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil meet. For more on who Hezbollah are, see our explainer here.
24: A former CIA agent pleaded guilty to drugging and sexually assaulting at least 24 women over the course of foreign postings in Latin America and elsewhere. The 47-year-old agent kept hundreds of photos and videos documenting his crimes. He faces up to 30 years in prison.
3: Polish truckers are blocking three Ukrainian border crossings, demanding that Warsaw limit the number of Ukrainian trucks that are allowed to enter the country. Poland has supported Ukraine militarily and absorbed more than a million refugees from the conflict, but has also tightly restricted imports of Ukrainian grain to protect Polish farmers. The truckers say Ukrainians are secretly violating those agreements. The move comes as Poland’s new centrist government prepares to take over from the right-wing Law and Justice party.
125,000: Hot enough for ya? Scientists say 2023 will almost certainly be the warmest year since a break between two major ice ages 125,000 years ago. The warming warning comes after this past October became the warmest on record, smashing the previous mark set in October 2019 by nearly half a degree Celsius.
Can the EU get aid to Gaza?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Milan.
Can Europe help with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza?
Well, in theory, absolutely. The European Commission has tripled the amount of money available for humanitarian help to Gaza. But the problem is, of course, getting it in. For reasons that is beyond me, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is closed. There's a lot of floods of humanitarian help outside that has been flowing into Egypt, waiting to cross, but they are not opening up the border. I would hope that there will be soon an agreement to open up that border and allow the help to get into Gaza. There’re huge numbers, millions of people that are really suffering and need that particular help. Now, that is also politically important, obviously.
What's going to be the effect of the Polish election?
Well, in a rather dark picture, in terms of global and other affairs, this is a bright spot. A rather decisive win for the democratic and European opposition in Poland. Now, it's going to take some time to form a government. The PiS, the outgoing party, is still the largest party in parliament, so they will get a first go at forming a government. And I think they will try all sorts of tricks for a while. That's going to take weeks, but they will fail, and then we will have a new government. With Donald Tusk returning as prime minister, we will have a government in Poland that is decidedly democratic, committed to the rule of law, committed to European integration, committed to helping Ukraine. That is in a dark situation otherwise, distinctly good news.
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