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President Joe Biden and First Lady Dr. Jill Biden greet President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the South Portico of the White House. Zelensky is meeting with Biden following his participation in the United Nations high-level meetings earlier this week.
Ukraine war sees escalation of weapons and words
After a week of high-stakes diplomacy, including stops in Washington, the UN General Assembly in New York, Ottawa, and Lublin, Poland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky returned home amid fresh conflict in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The situation on the Crimean peninsula intensified in recent days with Kyiv launching a series of missile attacks on the port city of Sevastopol. The first targeted Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters, where high-level officials of the Russian navy were meeting, and reportedly killed nine people. This comes after Ukraine recently struck a Russian submarine and landing strip in Sevastopol, a strategic hub for Russia’s navy and one of the largest cities on the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine has been upping its attacks on the peninsula over the past month, aiming to degrade Russia’s defense systems – including its much-lauded S-400 systems – and to undermine Russian morale.
Then on Sunday, Russian air strikes on the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson killed two people and injured several more. Ukraine’s air force claimed that Russia also carried out air attacks on the port city of Odessa and elsewhere in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, were reportedly carried out using Storm Shadow missiles, supplied to Ukraine by the UK and France, prompting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to accuse Western powers of "de facto fighting against us, using the hands and bodies of Ukrainians.” Russia is only going to be more enraged now that the US agreed to give Ukraine ATACMS, which would allow Kyiv to strike Russia well beyond the frontlines.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki embrace during a joint news briefing on a day of the first anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 24, 2023.
Poland’s startling - and deceptive - announcement
Maybe you saw the shock headline – “Poland no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine amid grain row” – and wondered how such close allies had experienced such a significant wartime falling-out.
Early Wednesday, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced the country had stopped weapons shipments to Ukraine, presumably in response to criticism from Ukraine’s President Zelensky over Poland’s refusal to buy Ukrainian grain diverted by war. But the shocked international response to Morawiecki’s message forced Poland’s government to quickly backtrack/clarify its position.
Here’s the critical context:
· Poland will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons it has already promised to deliver.
· Poland’s stock of excess weapons is currently close to depletion, leaving its government with little more to offer, at least for the moment.
· Poland is, and will remain, the path through which arms shipments from other countries reach Ukraine.
One more point to remember: Poland will hold parliamentary elections on October 15. Prime Minister Morawiecki is well aware the far-right Confederation party can pull votes from his center-right party by criticizing the cost of continuing support for Ukraine. By appearing to punish Poland’s eastern neighbor, Morawiecki can try to protect his vote share.
Bottom-line: Don’t be fooled. Poland remains Ukraine’s staunch ally against Russia.Banners ares seen during an anti-government protest in Krakow, Poland
Poland’s PiS caught in cash for visas scandal
A month out from Poland’s parliamentary elections, the governing Law and Justice Party (PiS) is facing a PR nightmare of their own making: the party may be anti-immigration, but it seems they aren’t anti-cash.
There is mounting evidence that several thousand visas were given to migrants from Africa and Asia in exchange for cash– a major scandal for an anti-immigration party.
The scandal was uncovered after other EU states noticed an influx of migrants entering the Schengen area with Polish visas. Seven people have been detained and the deputy foreign minister has been sacked.
PiS is looking to win its third straight general election next month, running on a platform that highlights the party’s success in stemming immigration from Muslim-majority countries and managing ongoing tensions along the Belarusian border.
But PiS is neck and neck with the liberal opposition– former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) – and facing a right flank challenge from the libertarian-nationalist Confederation Party. Right now it’s anyone's game, and could result in no government being formed, prompting a repeat election in early 2024.
With swing voters likely to determine the outcome of a tight election, getting caught hawking visas while running on an anti-immigrant platform could blow up for the PiS when Poles hit the polls next month.
Ukraine-EU farm export dispute: Are there any consequences?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from the airport in Madrid.
What are the consequence of the dispute now between Ukraine and the European Union on farm exports?
It is not really a dispute with the European Union because the commission has said that farm exports are okay. But then suddenly Poland has an election, and Slovakia which has election and Hungary, which has own policy, said, “No, no, we don't allow these particular grain exports from Ukraine because our farmers don't like it.” That runs totally contrary to the common trade policy that the European Union is running, runs totally contrary to the solidarity with Ukraine and support to Ukraine that we have all agreed on. So yeah, we'll see what happens. It’s a serious question.
What's the issue of using Catalan language in the European Parliament and the European Union as well?
Well, this is part of the efforts here in Spain to set up the new government. I mean, the socialists who have a very, very difficult position on negotiating with the Catalan separatists and the Catalan separatists, among other demands, are demanding that both Catalan and the Galician and Basque language should be official languages in the European Union. This brings up a huge number of issues, apart from making the European Union even more of a Tower of Babel than it is at the moment. The cost of translating every single speech, every single document, every single thing into the three languages brings immense costs, immense complexity. So expect the other European governments to say, “Hmm, we've listened to the demand. Let's ask the lawyers. Let's have a working group and let's do nothing.”
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki
Poland’s PM puts Middle East migrants on the ballot
Case in point: Aware that his Law and Justice Party faces a stiff challenge this fall from the opposition Civic Platform, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced plans on Sunday to add the following question to the national election ballot for October 15:
“Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”
If the wording of that question doesn’t make clear which side the prime minister is on, he accompanied the announcement on social media with a video image of a Black man licking a knife, followed by the question, “Do you want to cease being masters of your own country?”
During the height of Europe’s refugee crisis in 2015-2016, the governing Law and Justice Party managed to close Poland’s borders to migration from Africa and the Middle East, though it has welcomed more than three million Ukrainians who have fled Russia’s invasion of their country. More than a million Ukrainians are still there.
Former prime minister Donald Tusk, now leader of the more immigration-friendly opposition, says the referendum idea shows the governing party is running scared and needs an election gimmick to win.A pro-democracy march in Warsaw gathered up to 500,000 participants.
Poles’ democracy push
Around half a million Poles took to the streets of Warsaw on Sunday to protest the right-wing government of President Andrzej Duda in the largest pro-democracy display in Poland since the end of the Cold War. Thousands traveled from across the country – including some from the conservative heartland – to join demonstrators in the capital, while big rallies also formed in other cities, including Krakow.
The mass gathering coincided with the 34th anniversary of Poland's first post-war democratic election. It also comes just days after Duda’s conservative Law and Justice Party offered to amend a newly passed controversial law rather than scrap it entirely, which many Poles had been demanding.
The government says the legislation is aimed at investigating Russian influence over Polish politics and is crucial for the country’s national security. However, critics say that Duda, who has long been accused of eroding democratic norms, is using it to target opposition forces ahead of this fall’s general election (the date has not yet been set).
Duda has backtracked on an earlier version of the bill that allowed for a powerful committee to issue a 10-year ban from public office for those deemed to have any links to the Kremlin. He has since said that the law would not ban anyone from holding public office and that no lawmakers would sit on the decision-making committee.
Crucially, critics say this scheme aims to target Donald Tusk, a former Polish PM (2007-2014) and European Council president who heads the Civic Coalition bloc, Poland’s main opposition faction. During his time in Polish politics, Tusk strengthened energy ties with the Kremlin – making Warsaw reliant on Russian natural gas exports – and many say Duda is trying to use this new law to prevent the pro-European centrist from challenging him.
What now? Duda might be banking on the fact that anti-Russian sentiment remains sky-high in Poland, but has he gone a step too far with legislation that many see as a blatant attempt to quash his rivals? For now, Law and Justice
Satellite image shows smoke and an overview of Khartoum International Airport in Sudan.
What We’re Watching: Sudan on the brink, unwanted Ukrainian grain
Army-militia turf war turns bloody in Sudan
Over the weekend, Sudan's slow and bloody transition to democracy was turned on its head by fierce fighting in Khartoum, the capital, and elsewhere between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group. By Monday, almost 100 civilians had been killed along with unknown numbers from the two warring sides in three days of intense battles.
The backstory. The oil-rich North African nation has been mired in instability since the 2019 coup that ousted dictator Omar al-Bashir after 30 years. A transitional civilian-military government was booted in another coup in 2021, followed by mass street protests brutally repressed by the army. The latest deadline for the army to hand over power to civilians lapsed last week — perhaps a clear sign of what was coming.
The players. On one side we've got Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since leading the 2021 coup. On the other is his former ally and junta deputy Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti, head of the RSF, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur. Both men had close ties to al-Bashir yet worked together to depose him.
Al-Burhan and Hemedti accuse each other of starting the latest fighting. At the heart of the crisis is their personal rivalry over who will ultimately control the armed forces: Al-Burhan wanted to integrate the RSF within the military in two years, but Hemedti says he needs a decade.
So, what happens now? If the warring parties don't back down, the risk of the conflict turning into a full-blown civil war is real. This comes 12 years after the last one ended with the independence of South Sudan. But even just continued violence will surely worsen an economic crisis spurred by sky-high inflation.
There are a lot of outside interested parties. Russia has long been trying to finalize a deal for a Red Sea naval base in Sudan, while the US doesn't want Khartoum to return to supporting international terrorism. Neighboring Egypt also has close ties to Sudan (both countries oppose Ethiopia's controversial Nile dam), while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also want Khartoum under their sphere of influence.
Sudan is in a semi-permanent state of turmoil and, despite its oil wealth, the economy is a shambles. But its geopolitical and strategic value remains as high as low are the odds of the country returning to democracy in the near future.
Polish/Hungarian friendship with Ukraine has limits
The EU on Sunday rejected bans on imports of Ukrainian grain announced by Poland and Hungary on Saturday. Brussels said that individual member states can't conduct trade policy, although it didn't specify how it would respond if the two countries ignore the call.
Meanwhile, Warsaw and Budapest insist they have to protect their farmers from cheap Ukrainian grain. Most of Ukraine's grain is now exported via the Black Sea, thanks to a deal with Russia brokered by the UN and Turkey. But in the early months of the war, large amounts of cheap Ukrainian grain entered Europe by land and got stuck there because of a lack of trucks to move it to ports.
Kyiv, for its part, is not happy but wants to talk things out with the Poles on Monday. Still, Ukraine is hardly in a position to play hardball with Poland, perhaps its strongest European ally since the Russian invasion. (Hungary, of course, is a different story.)Thousands gathered at the Place de la Concorde to denounce the government’s use of a constitutional loophole to pass the pension reform, raising the retirement age without a vote in the National Assembly.
What We’re Watching: France’s fiery response, Poland’s first big step, Israeli president’s “civil war” warning
Macron bypasses the legislature on pension reform
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday made the risky call to bypass the National Assembly, France’s powerful lower house, and push through a very unpopular pension reform scheme.
As expected, protesters responded with anger. More than 300 people were arrested overnight, and on Friday morning demonstrators halted production at a fuel refinery and briefly blocked traffic on a highway outside Paris.
(A brief recap on the proposal that’s sent France into a tailspin: Macron’s government wants to incrementally raise the national retirement age by two years to 64 by 2030. Starting from 2027, workers will need to have worked for 43 years, up from 41, to access a full pension.)
Why’s he doing this? Macron has long said that France's public spending, 14% of which goes toward its pension scheme – the highest of any OECD country after Greece and Italy – is crucial to addressing its growing debt-to-GDP ratio. But this approach is very unpopular in France, where retirement is sacred and government interference is abhorred.
Fearing he wouldn’t have the votes in the lower chamber, Macron triggered a constitutional loophole to get the bill through (it had already passed in the upper chamber). But by taking this route – which his political opponents say renders the bill illegitimate, though it is legal – Macron now opens himself up to serious political blowback.
On Friday, a group of opposition centrist lawmakers — backed by the far-left NUPES coalition — filed a no-confidence vote against the government, while far-right leader Marine Le Pen announced she'll table her own. But any vote would need to pass by an absolute majority to topple the government – meaning PM Élisabeth Borne and the cabinet, not the president. Still, that’s very unlikely to happen, analysts say.
But Macron, who cannot run again after 2027 due to term limits, is not out of the woods. Unions have vowed to make the government pay, and prolonged strikes are expected. Meanwhile, far-left and far-right factions say they’ll intensify efforts to topple the French government.
Bibi rejects judicial compromise. What now?
It’s been another dramatic 24 hours in Israel as the country moves closer toward a constitutional crisis over judicial reform. President Isaac Herzog, whose role is largely ceremonial, came out with a compromise proposal to placate both the government — pushing to limit the power of the courts — and opposition factions that dub the move a judicial coup. Crucially, Herzog warned that the prospect of “civil war” looms large.
Five (out of six) opposition party leaders now say they support Herzog’s proposal, which they can live with despite not being perfect. But Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who’s increasingly powerless as he tries to appease a discordant far-right coalition, rejected the pitch, calling it “one-sided.”
Meanwhile, anti-government protests continued to sweep Tel Aviv and elsewhere, and scores of army reservists said that they will not show up for training in protest.
As the government moves ahead with its plans, the future looks more and more uncertain. What’ll happen if the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, passes a law which then gets struck down by the Supreme Court? Would citizens — and the military — obey the legislature or the courts? When asked what to expect, Tzipi Livni, a former Israeli justice and foreign minister, said: "Anarchy.”
Polish fighter jets for Ukraine
Ukraine finally got its wish — sort of. On Thursday, Poland announced that it’ll supply Kyiv with MiG-29 fighter jets, the first NATO member to do so. That sounds like a big deal, right? Yes and no.
For months, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has been begging the US and its European friends for warplanes to fight Russia. But NATO allies have been slow-walking him because that might push the Russians to escalate on the battlefield. Yet, the Soviet-era MiGs — of which Ukraine has a few dozen relics — are hardly the modern warplanes Zelensky wants, and they’re no match for Russia’s Su-27s.
Still, perhaps Poland's gambit will encourage other NATO countries to follow suit — and maybe even force a rethink on sending Ukraine more high-tech warplanes in the future. After all, that's exactly what happened weeks ago with heavy tanks until the US and Germany changed their mind.