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Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election?
What do NATO allies think of conversations among US voters about President Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term? Are they worried a second Trump presidency will negatively impact the war in Ukraine? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in DC for his take on a potential second Biden or Trump administration. Sikorksi says Poland will have a partner and ally in whoever ends up in the Oval Office.
“Once you start interfering in the internal party, political affairs of other countries, you’re on a very slippery slope,” Sikorski warns, “Poland wants to have the best possible relations with the US, whoever is your president goes without saying.”
Despite concerns from Democratic voters about Biden’s stamina and cognitive abilities, Sikorski says that at a recent summit, he found Biden “focused, strategic, and actually quite amusing.” He also notes that the Polish government has good relations with both candidates and disputes the idea that a second Trump term would limit further US aid to Ukraine. He concedes that Donald Trump was right on many issues, like the necessity of all NATO members to meet requirements for defense spending. Ultimately, Trump responds to strength and power, and accepting defeat or a settlement on Putin’s terms in Ukraine may not align with the image he wants to project on the global stage.
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Do NATO allies have the strength, patience, and unity to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to win the war and defeat Russia? According to Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski, the answer is a resounding yes. On GZERO World, Sikorski sat down with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, to talk about NATO’s strength, Putin’s missteps, and why continuing to send crucial military and economic assistance to Kyiv is a top priority for western allies and the future of NATO.
“Ukraine is heroically defending us before this evil man at a cost to us of less than 1% of our GDP,” Sikorski explains, “We can afford this."
Sikorski says that despite rogue alliance members like Hungary’s Victor Orbán, NATO remains united and is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling an aggressive Russia. Bremmer and Sikorski also discuss Ukraine’s ongoing challenges, such as ensuring Kyiv can keep sending weapons and new troops to the front lines. Sikorski remains optimistic that Ukraine will prevail and win the war, with the help of Western allies and NATO, particularly Poland, which has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees and is helping train troops to NATO standards.
Bremmer pushed Sikorski on his conviction that Ukraine would win, pointing out that a potential second Donald Trump administration could severely limit further military assistance for Kyiv and the sheer amount of force required to get all of Ukraine’s territory back just isn’t available, but Sikorski held firm in his conviction.
“There is never a shortage of pocket Chamberlains willing to give up other people’s land or freedom for their own peace of mind,” Sikorski said, “I think we can win this one.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit | GZERO World
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit
Is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán undermining Europe and Western unity following this year’s critical NATO summit? Just days after Hungary’s nationalist leader met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orbán left the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC to visit former president Donald Trump, a well-known critic of the alliance, at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to ask how NATO members deal with a renegade ally like Hungary and the challenges posed by Orbán’s coziness with authoritarian rulers. Orbán’s rogue trips are a sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, on full display at the summit, but Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO.
“Orbán is freelancing on behalf of Hungary, and that’s not a new thing,” Sikorski says, “He’s been denying Ukraine transit of defense goods, he’s also been vetoing the release of European money for Ukraine.”
Hungary also has a complicated history when it comes to its international borders, and Sikorski worries about any leader who is willing to redraw a border using force, rather than diplomacy. He says any negotiated settlement in Ukraine should be negotiated by the Ukrainians, and warns that thinking a partitioned Ukraine is inevitable is similar to the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s strategy of appeasing Adolf Hitler in the lead-up to WWII.
“We can win this one,” Sikorski insists, “The Russians have advantage in tanks, but the Ukrainians have advantage in drones.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Polish soldiers and a local dog walk along the border fence on the Polish-Belarusian border in Usnarz Gorny, Poland.
Poland boosts defenses, Lithuania secures leadership win
The Eastern front isn’t taking any chances. Faced with cyberattacks, arson attempts, and a migrant crisis manufactured by Minsk, Poland said Monday that it will spend US$2.5 billion on the Shield-East system to beef up its 700-kilometer eastern border with Russia and Belarus. Construction is to be completed by 2028. Shield-East will include anti-drone towers, anti-tank barriers, bunkers, and space for potential minefields, designed to deter possible aggression by Russia.
Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamyszdescribed it as “… the largest operation to strengthen Poland’s eastern border, NATO’s eastern flank, since 1945.” Shield-East will be part of a regional defense infrastructure built jointly with neighboring NATO nations Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
With over 4% of its GDP already allocated to defense, Poland is also seeking financial support from the European Union to strengthen the 27-member bloc’s eastern border. The Shield-East announcement comes just two weeks before elections to the European Parliament, in which Poland’s Foreign MinisterRadoslaw Sikorski accused Russia of interfering to “destabilize Europe” – and his country’s security.
Also watching those elections will be newly reelected Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, who defeated Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė with 74.5% in Sunday’s vote. A moderate conservative, Nausėda is a strong supporter of Ukraine and has provided safe haven to refugees fleeing Belarusian and Russian repression. In his victory speech, Nausėda highlighted the country's alignment with allies including the US, Germany, and Poland, with whom his country also shares a 104-kilometre border, the scene of joint military drills in April of this year.Donald Tusk, the chairman of the Civic Platform (PO) opposition party, surrounded by party members, speaks during a press conference in Krakow.
EU drops democracy dispute with Poland
After six years of acrimonious disputes with Warsaw over allegations that the Polish government was rolling back democracy and eroding the rule of law, Brussels is now dropping the issue.
The spat began under the previous Polish government, which was controlled by the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice Party. It introduced judicial reforms that the top EU court ruled had curbed judicial independence. The EU imposed fines, partly blocked access to European budget funds, and initiated sanctions that could have jeopardized Poland’s EU voting rights.
The standoff was complicated by the fact that even as Warsaw squabbled with Brussels over domestic issues, Poland took a lead in supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia, a major EU foreign policy priority.
Burying the hatchet. The European Commission said Monday that in light of changes made by the centrist Polish government of Donald Tusk, which was elected last year after a season of deeply polarizing campaigns, it would drop the claims, confident that “today marks the opening of a new chapter for Poland.”
That leaves Hungary, governed by the proudly “illiberal” Viktor Orbán, as the only EU country still facing sanctions over rule-of-law violations.
President of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, dressed in the national costume, dances as part of The Day Of Chechen Language celebrations in Grozny April 25, 2010. The Day Of The Chechen Language holiday was established by Kadyrov in 2007 to promote the national language.
Hard Numbers: Chechnya bans beats, Poland’s right stays strong, Biden cancels student debt (again), Argentina battles dengue, “Hardest Geezer” runs Africa
116: Can you feel the beat? If you’re in Chechnya, from now on you are only rocking between 80 and 116 beats per minute. That’s because a new law bans any music faster or slower than that range. The Goldilocks move, taken by the quasi-Islamist dictatorship of Ramzan Kadyrov, aims to shield the North Caucasus republic – which is part of Russia – from insidious Western influences. But don’t worry – as GZERO design captain Ari Winkleman points out, you can still listen to Radiohead’s “Creep” (92 bpm) on repeat in the streets of Grozny.
52.5: Polish PM Donald Tusk’s centrist governing coalition won just 52.5% of the vote in Sunday’s municipal elections, a narrow victory that underscored the persistent strength of the far-right Law and Justice Party, which took close to 34%, the largest share of any single party. Tusk’s coalition ousted Law and Justice from national power in bitterly fought general elections last fall but has continued to clash with the party over rule-of-law issues and appointments ever since.
25 million: The Biden administration on Monday announced a sweeping new program of student debt forgiveness that it said would give relief to some 25 million borrowers, including those who are either facing economic hardship, owe more now than they did at the start of their payback periods, or who have had debt for more than 20 years. The new plan replaces an earlier one that was struck down by the Supreme Court but is expected to face some legal challenges of its own.
232,996: Argentina is facing its biggest-ever outbreak of dengue fever, with some 232,996 cases of the virus already registered this season, nearly double last year’s figure. Experts say that warmer temperatures, potentially linked to global warming, are extending the breeding season for the mosquitos that carry the disease. Dengue is sometimes fatal and never fun – high fevers, severe body aches, vomiting, and it can be more lethal the second time you get it.
9,940: If you think your little 20-minute morning run is something special, consider the feat achieved by the UK’s Russ Cook, otherwise known as “The Hardest Geezer.” Cook just finished running from South Africa to Tunisia – ie, the entire continent of Africa. The 9,940-mile journey, which he ran for charity, took him almost a year to complete. To celebrate, the 27-year-old endurance athlete knocked back a strawberry daiquiri.
Putin using Moscow attack as excuse to intensify war on Ukraine
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
A Quick Take to kick off your week. Lots we could be talking about. But I want to go to Russia, where we have had a major terrorist attack with over 130 Russian citizens gunned down, killed by terrorists.
The United States has warned the Russians both publicly so that American citizens would know about the concern, but also with actionable intelligence privately over the past couple of weeks that ISIS was planning an attack on an area with major crowds in Moscow. Putin publicly dismissing that, kind of wish he hadn't, but that we are where we are. And Putin has now spoken to the nation. There have been a number of gunmen that have been rounded up and arrested four, that we know of, Tajik citizens and Putin did not mention that ISIS has taken credit for this terrorist attack, nor that they then released videos of some of the attackers as they were engaging in terrorism inside the rock concert venue.
Instead, he spoke implausibly about links to Ukraine that don't actually exist. Why would ISIS-K do this? I mean, the main reason is because one of their two home bases, Syria and Iraq, in Syria, destroyed by Bashar al-Assad with the direct help from Putin and the Russian military. Nobody else doing that with Assad on the ground. And there have been many terrorist attempts against Russians as a consequence in that regard, but none with spectacular success for them like we've just witnessed.
Why wouldn't Ukraine be responsible? Well, first of all, because they haven't actually been targeting civilians at all. In fact, the one time that they engaged in terrorism and it was terrorism was an attempt to kill an individual, high level Russian extremist, but who was not a political figure. He had been informally an inspiration to the Kremlin and been calling for pogroms against Ukraine, which he said shouldn't exist as a nation. And they didn't get him. Instead, they got his daughter and the United States and other NATO allies were quite angry about the fact that Ukrainians were engaged in that. But aside from that, it's been attacks on critical infrastructure. That's another thing. And certainly, if you want to talk about the Nord Stream pipeline, highly unlikely the Russians would have blown up their pipeline. Much more likely the Ukrainians either by themselves with support would have been responsible for that. The investigations have been inconclusive. That strikes me as not enormously plausible.
Also, Ukraine has been hitting a lot of refineries, Russian refineries, and that's a pretty big deal. About 5% of Russian exports are now offline. Oil exports. That could go up a lot. It could be more than half easily in coming weeks to months of over 3 million barrels a day that the Russians export. If Ukraine starts hitting Black Sea facilities, which they're certainly capable of doing. So global economic impact of this war continues to be very significant. Ability and willingness of the Ukrainians to hit targets inside Russia as well as occupied Crimea, Ukrainian territory, but the Russians annexed it back in 2014 illegally, all of that is certainly par for the course. But the idea that the Ukrainians would be involved in large scale terrorism or support it is not only implausible on the basis of the evidence, but also implausible in terms of what they've been doing historically. But of course, that doesn't matter to Putin, who now intends to use this to drive more military efforts against Ukraine, more civilian casualties.
And that's what we saw in the initial 48 hours after the attack. Unprecedented levels of missiles being sent against the capital, Kyiv, with lots of civilian targets as well as west Ukraine, Lviv in particular. We are seeing that Putin is indifferent to civilian deaths, those of the Ukrainians and, of course, those of his own people. And we probably do now see a much more mobilization from Russia, especially now that the election, the so-called election, is over and more Russian weapons that are going to be used against the Ukrainian people.
The most concerning piece of all of this, I mean, leaving aside the fact that Russia now has a second front they need to fight on, they have, you know, a concern with radical Islamic terrorism that has grown in terms of the capabilities and whether or not Putin says he's going to fight it, he's going to need to fight it. And that's going to take away scarce resources for him and it's going to put more Russian civilians at risk. But the bigger concern, the global concern, of course, is the potential for this war to expand. And there are a couple of incidents that should raise those warning bells. First, the fact that just over this weekend, of all of the missiles that were launched by Russia against Ukraine, one went through Polish airspace for less than a minute, something like 40 seconds, but nonetheless, a Russian missile that actually went through the airspace of a NATO ally. Clearly wasn't targeting that NATO ally.
But Polish and other NATO allied aircraft scrambled. And that is not something we have seen so far since the war started a couple of years ago. Also, the fact that there were a missile explosion targeting Odessa just a couple of weeks ago when President Zelensky was there, in addition to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. And it was literally only a few hundred yards away that this missile exploded while those two men, those two leaders were on the ground and exposed very clearly. I don't believe that Mitsotakis was targeted, but the fact that he could have been hit as an NATO leader would have also put us in unprecedented danger in terms of the geopolitical order.
Certainly since anything we'd seen since 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis. What's behind that? Well, I mean, I think the most likely thing behind is that Putin doesn't have complete and operational control over everything that's going on on the ground. His military is badly trained and organized. And this was probably a mistake. Woops. But, you know, the fact is that when you have lots of people go into Ukraine and borders, look, you know, they look very defined on a map, but they're very porous in real life. And the potential for mistakes to lead to extraordinary escalation, pretty high. And certainly the willingness to allow for those mistakes to be made is higher than you would like it to be. The checks and balances there don't seem to be all that concerning for the Kremlin or for Vladimir Putin. Of course, a worse explanation would be that Putin actually is prepared to take those risks to brush NATO back. And that, of course, would lead to much more likelihood that we would have escalation that would bring a NATO ally into the war, something that clearly nobody out there wants to see.
But it's worth talking about in the context of all of this, it's much more likely the Ukrainians are now going to get their 60 billion of support. That would be the largest piece of military support so far from the United States, approved likely in mid to late April. They're seeing more ammunition, more economic, more military support from the Europeans, even though the lion share of the military support is from the US and the war continues to be dangerous, continues to be unstable and continues to be no end in sight.
So that's where we are after some very unfortunate headlines and events over the last couple of days. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Russia is winning? Winning what? ›
- Putin "wins" Russia election, but at what cost? ›
- Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow imply they don't fear Russian response ›
- Moscow terror attack: What happens next? ›
- US-Israel rift over UN resolution: more drama than long-term impact - GZERO Media ›
- Does Europe face a resurging terrorist threat after the Moscow attack? - GZERO Media ›
Farmers Gather To Protest In Warsaw. Polish farmers hold a banner that reads Stop poisoned food from Ukraine in Polish shops in Warsaw, Poland, on February 27, 2024.
Ukraine accepts EU trade restrictions to appease Poland
In an attempt to ease tensions with their Polish neighbors, Kyiv says it is prepared to accept EU restrictions on Ukrainian agriculture exports.
The situation: Following Russia’s invasion two years ago, the EU showed solidarity to Kyiv by slashing agriculture tariffs on Ukraine, a leading grain exporter. As a result, Ukrainian grain flooded Poland and other neighboring markets, undercutting local prices.
Polish farmers and truckers have been protesting in response. Ukraine is keen to stay on good terms with one of its biggest military backers, and is only asking for EU sanctions on Russian agricultural products in return for accepting restrictions.
Poland’s prime minister has backed that compromise, but an EU-wide ban would be difficult to achieve, as several member states fear it would destabilize global markets and aggravate economic and social crises in developing countries. Russia is, after all, the world’s largest exporter of grain, and its global exports rose 36% last year, including 1.54 million tonnes of grain to the EU itself.
Officials from the two countries will meet again next Monday and hope to resolve the dispute before the end of the month.