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Ukraine accepts EU trade restrictions to appease Poland
In an attempt to ease tensions with their Polish neighbors, Kyiv says it is prepared to accept EU restrictions on Ukrainian agriculture exports.
The situation: Following Russia’s invasion two years ago, the EU showed solidarity to Kyiv by slashing agriculture tariffs on Ukraine, a leading grain exporter. As a result, Ukrainian grain flooded Poland and other neighboring markets, undercutting local prices.
Polish farmers and truckers have been protesting in response. Ukraine is keen to stay on good terms with one of its biggest military backers, and is only asking for EU sanctions on Russian agricultural products in return for accepting restrictions.
Poland’s prime minister has backed that compromise, but an EU-wide ban would be difficult to achieve, as several member states fear it would destabilize global markets and aggravate economic and social crises in developing countries. Russia is, after all, the world’s largest exporter of grain, and its global exports rose 36% last year, including 1.54 million tonnes of grain to the EU itself.
Officials from the two countries will meet again next Monday and hope to resolve the dispute before the end of the month.
NATO bares its teeth
Almost two years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s existential battle continues. The static frontlines look a lot like a stalemate, and US public and political opinions toward further funding for Ukraine are in doubt, but fears of regional escalation remain. Just this week, for example, the Belarusian defense minister said he would put forward a new military doctrine allowing for the use of nuclear weapons.
In response to possible aggression falling into NATO territory, the alliance is hellbent on preparedness. Addressing fellow NATO leaders in Brussels on Wednesday, Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee, warned of the need to prepare for an era “in which anything can happen at any time. An era in which we need to expect the unexpected.” Bauer and his colleagues are meeting to discuss attempts to do just that with Steadfast Defender, the largest military exercise in Europe since the Cold War.
Showing off friendly muscle. The NATO training exercises, to be held from February to June in Germany, Poland, and the Baltics, will involve more than 40,000 troops from across the 31-nation alliance (plus pending member Sweden). The work will test the troops’ ability to quickly mobilize in case of a Russian attack while showing off the alliance’s strength and unity.
Not to be outdone, Russia will also host military drills this year with “Ocean-2024,” bringing together all branches of the Russian Armed Forces and units of “foreign states,” according to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
The showdown continues in Poland
What ignited the current fight? The imprisonment of two members of Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party – which governed for eight years before losing in the autumn election – following their convictions on corruption charges. The political stakes then climbed higher when Poland’s president (and Kaczyński ally), Andrzej Duda, sided with the jailed lawmakers and referred to them as “political prisoners.”
Poland could find itself in a constitutional crisis because the very courts Tusk wants to purge of Kaczyński’s political cronies are ruling against him. They are blocking his attempts to free the country’s political institutions from Kaczyński’s strong arm. It’s not clear how the impasse can be resolved.
Adding to the mess, the EU has pledged to unfreeze funds that Poland badly needs only after Tusk has managed to depoliticize Poland’s courts and state media, but President Duda has the power to veto many of Tusk’s plans, creating a stalemate that undermines Tusk’s popularity.
That’s why this ugly political wrestling match will likely continue at least until 2025, when Duda finishes his final term as president.
Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Zelensky's US visit lead to more aid for Ukraine?
I think so. Unclear why he had to go to Argentina for Milei's inauguration just before. That feels decidedly B-list for a guy that's running a war. But the US trip is important. And of course, he's seeing all of the senate Dems and Republicans, speaker of the House, as well as Biden and a bunch of defense contractors. Biden really wants this to happen. So do leaders of the Democratic and Republican Party. Biden has to compromise for support, both money as well as policy compromise on border security to get the Republicans to support it. I expect that will happen. So on balance, it's close, but I think you're going to get additional military support and cash from the Americans for 2024. That does not allow the Ukrainians to take more territory back, but it does allow them to maintain their existing defenses, which is pretty important.
Will Prime Minister Tusk's return to power help make Poland a leader in Europe?
Absolutely. And I think we're already seeing that in terms of Poland's role on Ukraine. We're seeing it in terms of engagement with von der Leyen on fiscal transfers and on general alignment on where Europe's policies are going on issues like transition energy, industrial policy, AI, you name it. I think that this is a big win for Europe and it's certainly a big win for the Polish people.
Is Prime Minister Sunak on the rocks in Britain?
No much more than he has been, frankly. I mean, he is potentially going to face a no confidence vote because of opposition to his migration, latest migration policy, but it won't pass. He's certainly out in the next election in the coming year and Labor's coming back. But compared to recent prime ministers in the UK, Sunak's been doing a pretty decent job. Essentially, he's a caretaker PM, post-Brexit. That's where we are.
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2: Brazilian police detained two people with links to Hezbollah on suspicion of planning terrorist attacks against Jews in Brazil. Lebanon-based Hezbollah has long been known to operate financial and smuggling networks in South America, in particular in the so-called Tri-Border Area, a semi-lawless region where the frontiers of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil meet. For more on who Hezbollah are, see our explainer here.
24: A former CIA agent pleaded guilty to drugging and sexually assaulting at least 24 women over the course of foreign postings in Latin America and elsewhere. The 47-year-old agent kept hundreds of photos and videos documenting his crimes. He faces up to 30 years in prison.
3: Polish truckers are blocking three Ukrainian border crossings, demanding that Warsaw limit the number of Ukrainian trucks that are allowed to enter the country. Poland has supported Ukraine militarily and absorbed more than a million refugees from the conflict, but has also tightly restricted imports of Ukrainian grain to protect Polish farmers. The truckers say Ukrainians are secretly violating those agreements. The move comes as Poland’s new centrist government prepares to take over from the right-wing Law and Justice party.
125,000: Hot enough for ya? Scientists say 2023 will almost certainly be the warmest year since a break between two major ice ages 125,000 years ago. The warming warning comes after this past October became the warmest on record, smashing the previous mark set in October 2019 by nearly half a degree Celsius.
Can the EU get aid to Gaza?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Milan.
Can Europe help with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza?
Well, in theory, absolutely. The European Commission has tripled the amount of money available for humanitarian help to Gaza. But the problem is, of course, getting it in. For reasons that is beyond me, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is closed. There's a lot of floods of humanitarian help outside that has been flowing into Egypt, waiting to cross, but they are not opening up the border. I would hope that there will be soon an agreement to open up that border and allow the help to get into Gaza. There’re huge numbers, millions of people that are really suffering and need that particular help. Now, that is also politically important, obviously.
What's going to be the effect of the Polish election?
Well, in a rather dark picture, in terms of global and other affairs, this is a bright spot. A rather decisive win for the democratic and European opposition in Poland. Now, it's going to take some time to form a government. The PiS, the outgoing party, is still the largest party in parliament, so they will get a first go at forming a government. And I think they will try all sorts of tricks for a while. That's going to take weeks, but they will fail, and then we will have a new government. With Donald Tusk returning as prime minister, we will have a government in Poland that is decidedly democratic, committed to the rule of law, committed to European integration, committed to helping Ukraine. That is in a dark situation otherwise, distinctly good news.
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Poles push populists out at polls
Exit polls from Sunday’s Polish national election show the ruling Law and Justice party, or PiS, failing to secure enough support to form a third majority government.
While it won the most seats, opposition leader Donald Tusk is claiming victory as his Civic Coalition looks to build a government with the Third Way and the Left, who scored a combined 248 seats, surpassing the 231 needed for a majority. The Third Way performed better than expected with 13% of the vote, while the far-right Confederation party, on whose support PiS depended, got only 6.2%, which the party called a defeat.
Turnout was the highest since 1989 when voters turfed the ruling communist party. Some 73% of Poles voted, compared to the expected 55-60%, suggesting that the liberal opposition mobilized enough voters in the last two weeks of the campaign to turn the tide in its favor.
“The outcome is good news for Poland’s domestic political and economic trajectory as well as its position in the EU,” says Eurasia Group expert Anna-Carina Hamker. “The incoming liberal opposition government will take steps to restore the rule of law and depoliticize state institutions while adopting a more consensus-oriented approach towards Brussels and other European capitals.”
Poles to the polls!
This weekend, Poles go to the polls in a Poland that is as polarized between political poles — ok, ok, we’ll stop. But the election is a supremely big deal for the EU’s fifth most populous country, a nation that is aiming to become the military superpower of Eastern Europe.
The ruling Law and Justice Party, aka PiS, which has held power since 2015, is hoping that its mix of Catholic-inflected nationalism and generous social welfare payments will help it to carry the day, despite an increasingly sluggish economy. PiS is currently leading the polls, at 37%
The main opposition party, Civic Platform, known by its Polish initials "PO", says the current government’s ultra-conservative social values are out of touch with today's Poland, and it warns that the PiS's abuse of democratic norms is distancing the country from the rest of Europe — the EU has already withheld money from Warsaw over the government’s moves to undermine the judiciary. PO, led by former Prime Minister and one-time European Commission president Donald Tusk, is polling at 30%.
“Fundamentally the election is about this age-old Polish question of ‘what is Poland?’,” says Aaron Korewa, director of the Atlantic Council’s Warsaw office. “Is it going to be more like the Western European countries, which is what the opposition proposes, or is it going to go in its own special direction, which is what the current government is all about?”
Is Ukraine part of this story? Yes. While most Poles are united in supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia, Korewa says, the war’s impact on the domestic scene in Poland is a different story. Over Kyiv’s objections, Warsaw has banned imports of Ukrainian grain to protect Polish farmers, and there has been grumbling about the costs of supporting and integrating the more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees currently in Poland.
Small parties, big impact. While PO and PiS are the heavyweights, analysts say the election will hinge on the performance of two smaller parties: One is Confederation, an upstart mashup of libertarians and ultranationalist Euroskeptics that is challenging PiS from the far right. Confederation has risen to 10% in the polls, in part by calling for a rollback of support for Ukrainian refugees.
The other party to watch is Third Way, a center-right liberal party whose platform is closer to Tusk’s. If Third Way surpasses the 8% threshold of the vote that is needed to enter parliament, analysts say, this will give PO a much stronger chance of forming a government. Third Way heads into the election polling at 11%.
There’s also a juicy personal feud at the heart of the election: PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and PO’s Tusk publicly despise each other.
A generation ago, both men worked alongside famed dissident Lech Wałęsa to bring down communism, but by the mid-2000s they were bitter rivals. Kaczyński sees Tusk as a traitor who will sell out Poland’s interests to Brussels and Berlin. It doesn’t help that he thinks Tusk was involved in the 2010 airplane crash in Russia that killed his twin brother Lech, who was then Poland’s president. Tusk sees the reclusive Kaczyński, meanwhile, as an out-of-touch eccentric who poses a danger to the country’s democracy.
What’s likely to happen? Given the fragmentation of the vote, and Poland’s deep polarization, analysts expect a hung parliament in which no party is strong enough to form a government. In that case, says Eurasia Group’s Anna Carina-Hamker, Confederation could be the kingmaker.
The results? Should be known by early next week. See you then.