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Is Serbia pivoting towards Ukraine?
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt breaks down Serbia’s evolving foreign policy, and political developments in Poland.
After President Vučić’s visit to Ukraine, Bildt notes, “I think he is in the black book of the Kremlin because of that particular visit,” highlighting shifting alliances in the Balkans.
On Poland, following Donald Tusk’s post-election confidence vote, Bildt explains the challenges ahead: “The president can veto legislation, he can block important appointments.”
As Serbia weighs its EU path and Poland navigates internal politics, Bildt offers timely analysis on regional stability and European security affairs.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reacts after a vote of confidence for his center-left coalition government, in Warsaw, Poland, June 11, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Polish PM’s gamble pays off, UK sanctions Israeli government ministers, Taiwan indicts Chinese “spies”, and more
33: Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk survived a no-confidence measure on Wednesday by a margin of 33 votes in the 460 seat legislature. Tusk had called the vote himself in a bid to reinforce his mandate after an ally of his lost the presidential election to a rightwing challenger late last month.
4: Taiwanese prosecutors indicted four former members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party over allegations of spying for China. One of the alleged suspects worked as an assistant to former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, who is now the secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council.
0.1%: The US’ annual inflation index rose by 0.1 points from 2.3% last month—an early indication that Trump’s tariffs are having only a modest impact on consumer prices so far.
5: Five western countries – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK – imposed sanctions on two of Israel’s far-right ministers on Tuesday, accusing Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich of “inciting extremist violence” in the West Bank and denying essential aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar pledged a response to the “outrageous” move.
40%: US National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharyadefended his agency during a Senate hearing on Tuesday after the Trump administration proposed a 40% budget cut to it. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) slammed the proposed cuts, which would lower the NIH’s total budget to $27.5 billion for the next fiscal year.
1,200: Russia and Ukraine began a major prisoner swap earlier this week, with each side expected to hand over at least 1,200 prisoners. However, prospects for a ceasefire remain distant: Kyiv and Moscow have exchanged ferocious aerial assaults in recent days.
Crowds at a rally for Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate, on May 29, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Polling day for Poland, China courts Pacific Islanders, Russia readies more troops
Poles go to the polls
On Sunday, conservative Karol Nawrocki and liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski will face off in the second round of Poland’s presidential election. There isn’t a clear favorite. A Trzaskowski win would give Prime Minister Donald Tusk a key ally for both his domestic reform plans and stable relations with the EU, while victory for Nawrocki would saddle Tusk with a determined political enemy who can block his legislative agenda.
China courts Pacific Islanders
At a gathering in Xiamen, China, on Thursday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told top diplomats from 11 Pacific Island nations that Beijing will provide $2 million to help them adapt to climate change and speed negotiation of trade deals that would open Chinese markets to more of their exports. A joint statement following the meeting did not mention US President Donald Trump by name, but it did stress there are “no political strings attached to China’s assistance, no imposing one’s will onto others, and no empty promises.” Who needs subtlety?
Russia preparing its expected offensive?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Thursday that Russia has massed 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s Sumy region, an area Moscow hasn’t threatened since the early days of the war. It is widely expected that Russia will launch a major offensive this summer to try to seize more territory and degrade Ukrainian defenses in advance of talks to end the war. It’s not yet clear whether Russia is simply creating a buffer zone to protect its Kursk region from future Ukrainian attack or it intends to expand the war into Sumy.
EU pressures Israel over Gaza, Romania surprises, Poland vote ahead
In this episode of Europe In 60 Seconds, former prime minister of Sweden Carl Bildt checks in from Dayton, Ohio, with sharp insights on two key developments: The EU’s decision to review its association agreement with Israel amid mounting criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, and a surprise turn in Romania’s presidential race where a centrist victory defied populist expectations.
Plus, all eyes turn to Poland for a critical second-round election on June 1. What’s at stake for Europe’s political future?
An Iranian newspaper with a cover photo of US President Donald Trump and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, is seen in Tehran, Iran, on May 11, 2025.
What We’re Watching: US and Iran near mini-deal, Europe election extravaganza, Diss tracks at Eurovision
US and Iran edge toward “mini-deal” on nukes
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that the US and Iran have “sort of” agreed on terms for a nuclear deal, one day after a top Iranian adviser said Tehran is willing to eliminate weapons-grade uranium, limit enrichment, and allow international inspections — if sanctions are lifted immediately. But dismantling their nuclear program or ability to enrich uranium, as per the Iran nuclear deal negotiated in 2015, is off the table.
“While a full-scale deal like the [2015 deal] appears unlikely, both sides are showing interest in a limited ‘mini-deal’ that reduces tensions and creates more space for diplomacy,” says Eurasia Group Iran expert Gregory Brew. “A win for Trump and for his new friends in the Gulf.”
Election extravaganza: Big weekend for Europe
There will be a trio of elections on the continent this Sunday. Here’s a quick roundup of who’s voting and where.
Poland: The first round of the presidential election takes place this weekend, pitting Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a centrist, against the right-wing Law and Justice leader Karol Nawrocki. The election will be a harbinger of Poland’s alignment with the European Union at a vital time for the bloc. Polls have Trzaskowski ahead, but well short of 50%, which means there will likely be a runoff between the two front-runners on June 1.
Portugal: The Iberian nation is holding its third election in as many years, leaving some of the electorate fed up with its stagnant government. Polls suggest the situation isn’t about to get better: Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance is ahead but doesn’t have enough support to gain a working majority.
Romania: Of all the elections this weekend, it’s the one in Bucharest that is garnering the most attention, after the Romanian Constitutional Court barred nationalist candidate Călin Georgescu from running over allegations of Russian meddling. George Simion has filled Georgescu’s shoes and will seek to triumph over the pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan. With polls tied, the race is on a knife-edge.
At Eurovision 2025: Glitter, geopolitics, and a sauna diss track
Europe’s glitter-soaked, pyrotechnic-powered music competition fever dream — otherwise known as the Eurovision Song Contest — takes place Saturday at 9 p.m. CET (3 p.m. ET). It’s part talent show, part geopolitical popularity contest, and fully unhinged fun.
Unlike in the past two years, politics is taking a relative back seat this time around. However, there are two diss tracks. Sweden’s “Bara Bada Bastu” — the odds-on favorite — roasts Finland’s love of saunas, while Estonia’s viral “Espresso Macchiato” mocks Italian language and American work culture. Mamma mia!
How will the Trump presidency influence elections in Europe?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
How do you believe that the Trump presidency will influence elections in Europe?
Well, of course we don't know. But what we've seen during the last week with important elections in Canada and Australia, not Europe, but fairly similar in other ways, is that the Trump factor has been very important. It has boosted the incumbent governments. It has boosted the center-left. It has boosted those who are seen as standing up to American pressure, and thus produced results both in Canada, primarily in Canada, but also in Australia. Very different from what practically everyone expected a couple of months ago.
Europe, different place. But still we have two important elections coming up, within slightly more than 10 days. We have the first round of the presidential election in Poland. That's very important for the future possibilities of the Tusk government to continue reforming that particular country. And we have the second round of the presidential election in Romania. An important country often forgotten. But there of course, we had gross interference from Russia and TikTok, and a candidate was banned. In both of these cases, we see the Trump presidency acting. They received, in the White House the other day, the opposition candidate. The extreme right nationalist opposition candidate the other day. And they've been making distinct noises in favor of the same political alternative in Romania. Will this backfire in the way it did in Canada, Australia? Remains to be seen. Very important elections both of them. Watch this space.
Is Europe finally ready to defend itself?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano, Italy.
How serious is Europe about really beefing up its defense and rearming?
It is very serious indeed, although it's different in different parts of Europe. If you look at the EU countries, they have been increasing their defense spending over the last few years by roughly a third. That's a hell of a lot of money.
And if you look forward, I think there's a division between, say, Germany, Poland, Nordic Baltic states. You will see substantial further increases in defense spending there. There's more a question mark in the Mediterranean region, Greece support, where there is more hesitancy to do the rapid buildup of forces that is required.
Then, there is the problem of integrating defense industries and integrating command and control efforts. But we are undoubtedly at the new stage when it comes to developing serious integrated European defense capabilities, hopefully, to operate them together with the United States. But, as things are, also have the ability to operate them in the future more independently.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk attends a European Union leaders special summit to discuss Ukraine and European defense in Brussels, Belgium, on March 6, 2025.
Might Poland go nuclear?
As Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky was in Saudi Arabia Monday ahead ofUS-Ukrainian talks, his military launched its largest drone attack on Moscow overnight, killing two people. And if you ask Elon Musk, he was also busy attacking X. On Monday, Musk claimed without evidence that his social media platform went dark yesterday because it was targeted by a “massive cyberattack” traced to “the Ukraine area.”
Meanwhile, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made waves in recent days.
When Poland joined NATO in 1999, it appeared the country could count on the most successful military alliance in history to protect its borders against future threats. At the time, an American renunciation of NATO was hard to imagine.
On Friday, Tusk warned his country that a “profound change of American geopolitics” forces his government to prepare to double the size of its military and to “reach for opportunities related to nuclear weapons.” In the past, Poland’s leaders have suggested hosting the nuclear weapons of others, but the hint that Poland might develop its own arsenal in response to potential Russian aggression and a feared US retreat from Europe is something new.
Tusk’s jarring comments reflect a spiral in relations between Tusk’s government and the Donald Trump administration. A series ofaccusations and insults flew over the weekend between Poland’s foreign minister, Trump adviser Elon Musk, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio over the Musk-owned Starlink satellite system that supports Ukraine’s forces on the battlefield.
The PM’s suggestion that Poland might look to nuclear weapons in part reflects political worries. Poland will hold a first round ofpresidential elections in May, and Poles look likely to back a leader they believe can stand up to both Trump and Vladimir Putin.
But acquiring nuclear weapons would be time-consuming, politically fraught, and enormously expensive for Poland.