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Is Europe finally ready to defend itself?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano, Italy.
How serious is Europe about really beefing up its defense and rearming?
It is very serious indeed, although it's different in different parts of Europe. If you look at the EU countries, they have been increasing their defense spending over the last few years by roughly a third. That's a hell of a lot of money.
And if you look forward, I think there's a division between, say, Germany, Poland, Nordic Baltic states. You will see substantial further increases in defense spending there. There's more a question mark in the Mediterranean region, Greece support, where there is more hesitancy to do the rapid buildup of forces that is required.
Then, there is the problem of integrating defense industries and integrating command and control efforts. But we are undoubtedly at the new stage when it comes to developing serious integrated European defense capabilities, hopefully, to operate them together with the United States. But, as things are, also have the ability to operate them in the future more independently.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk attends a European Union leaders special summit to discuss Ukraine and European defense in Brussels, Belgium, on March 6, 2025.
Might Poland go nuclear?
As Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky was in Saudi Arabia Monday ahead ofUS-Ukrainian talks, his military launched its largest drone attack on Moscow overnight, killing two people. And if you ask Elon Musk, he was also busy attacking X. On Monday, Musk claimed without evidence that his social media platform went dark yesterday because it was targeted by a “massive cyberattack” traced to “the Ukraine area.”
Meanwhile, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made waves in recent days.
When Poland joined NATO in 1999, it appeared the country could count on the most successful military alliance in history to protect its borders against future threats. At the time, an American renunciation of NATO was hard to imagine.
On Friday, Tusk warned his country that a “profound change of American geopolitics” forces his government to prepare to double the size of its military and to “reach for opportunities related to nuclear weapons.” In the past, Poland’s leaders have suggested hosting the nuclear weapons of others, but the hint that Poland might develop its own arsenal in response to potential Russian aggression and a feared US retreat from Europe is something new.
Tusk’s jarring comments reflect a spiral in relations between Tusk’s government and the Donald Trump administration. A series ofaccusations and insults flew over the weekend between Poland’s foreign minister, Trump adviser Elon Musk, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio over the Musk-owned Starlink satellite system that supports Ukraine’s forces on the battlefield.
The PM’s suggestion that Poland might look to nuclear weapons in part reflects political worries. Poland will hold a first round ofpresidential elections in May, and Poles look likely to back a leader they believe can stand up to both Trump and Vladimir Putin.
But acquiring nuclear weapons would be time-consuming, politically fraught, and enormously expensive for Poland.
Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski speaks during a press conference.
Poland sounds the Russia cyber alarm
Georgia, a former Soviet republic that’s now independent, has facedpolitical crisis and social unrest over claims that Russia is manipulating its politics. Romania was forced to void an election result andrerun the vote late last year on similar charges of Russian meddling.
The charge isn’t new. Ukraine’sOrange Revolution (2004-05) began in response to an election result that protesters asserted had been determined by Vladimir Putin. And the charges of Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential race made headlines, though there was no evidence the Russians were successful enough to determine the outcome.
Today, Europeans are particularly on edge, because new elections are coming in both Germany and the Czech Republic. Russia has suffered more than700,000 casualties in Ukraine, according to US officials. Its ability to wage conventional war has sustained enormous damage. All the more reason, European officials fear, for Russia to use cyber strikes and sabotage attacks to pressure their governments to cut their backing for Ukraine.Polish Minister for European Affairs Adam Szlapka speaks during the presentation of the program for the 2025 Poland's Presidency of the Council of the European Union in Warsaw, Poland, on Dec. 10, 2024.
Poland calls for security self-reliance for Europe
With Donald Trump set to take office as US president on Monday, Poland is beginning its six-month presidency of the European Union with a warning: This is “the right time to say loudly that it’s time [for Europe] to take responsibility for our future and our security,” Poland’s Europe minister, Adam Szłapka, told the Guardian on Wednesday. Poland holds the rotating presidency from Jan. 1 to June 30, 2025.
Poland has long warned that many fellow EU members underestimate the threat that Russia poses for Europe, and with Trump now promising to broker a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, Poland’s government wants to be sure Europeans understand the longer-term risk.
Szłapka warned of “a very difficult time” ahead. And though Polish officials are careful not to criticize Trump directly, at least until his approach to Russia, Ukraine, and the future of NATO becomes clear, Poland continues to insist that Europe can’t outsource its security to the United States indefinitely.
In fact, Poland’s defense minister has welcomed the incoming US president’s call for NATO member states to spend 5% of their GDP on defense. Poland is already NATO’s biggest defense spender – with 4.12% of GDP in 2024 and an expected jump to 4.7% this year.
It’s a reminder that while many Europeans are casting a wary eye toward Washington, Poland’s attention remains firmly focused on the Kremlin.
Leaders of Poland, Nordic & Baltic countries affirm strong support for Ukraine
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
What was the purpose of the big leaders meeting in Sweden today?
Well, it was not entirely unique, but highly important meetings of the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries, and Poland. It's eight countries in total that came together on the leaders level in order to, first, of course, to say that we do support Ukraine and we are ready to do more, to say that we are ready to do more for defense. And these are countries, you should know, that they're all well above the 2% target of defense spending. Poland is above 4%, even. These are also the countries in the world that are the highest in terms of their proportion of GDP in terms of supporting Ukraine.
So the fact that they came together today to say this, "We are ready to do more to support Ukraine, we are ready to do more to reinforce our defense and security," was, of course, a strong signal of reassurance to Ukraine, a signal of some sort of political deterrence to Russia, but of course was also a signal of sorts to the United States and the incoming Trump administration that, "Here we are. We ready to do our part. We've already done it and we're ready to do more."
What is the nature of the political transition ongoing in the European Union?
Well, it's going amazingly well, against expectations, I have to say. All of the proposed members of the European Commission have been approved by the European Parliament. The entire commission has now been approved in a vote. So the commission comes into force, the sort of second Ursula von der Leyen Commission on the 1st of December. That's also the date when the new president of the European Council, António Costa, takes over. So by December 1st, the entire European Union transition is there, and the European Union is institutionally ready for the next five years. It will be demanding, yes.
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Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk gestures while speaking during the weekly Ministerial meeting in Warsaw.
Poland scraps right to asylum
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in recent days unilaterally suspended the right to asylum for migrants crossing into Poland from neighboring Belarus. Tusk said the move is temporary, meant to stop Russia from directing flows of migrants towards Poland in an effort to destabilize the country. In recent years, Poland and Belarus have nearly come to blows over the issue.
The decision, which has raised concerns among human rights groups, comes just before a major EU summit focused in part on crafting a coherent migration policy that balances the bloc’s supranational human rights laws with national-level concerns about rapid immigration from the Global South. In recent weeks, Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, imposed fresh border checks of its own.
Note: Tusk is no ultra-nationalist. A centrist former European Council president, Tusk was elected last year on a wave of discontent with the long-ruling, far-right Law and Justice party. But in Poland – as elsewhere in the decade since a wave of refugees from the Syrian civil war arrived – calls for tighter immigration policy have moved from the right-wing fringe to the mainstream discourse.
All of this as the numbers are actually falling. Illegal crossings detected byEU border authorities fell 42% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period last year, authorities say. Migrant voyages via the Mediterranean fell drastically, but they in fact rose along eastern routes into the Czech Republic and Poland.
Looking ahead: EU leaders will meet to discuss the issue on Wednesday and Thursday.Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris shakes hands with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, as they meet in the Vice President's Ceremonial Office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus in Washington, on Sept. 26, 2024.
Hard Numbers: US sends billions to Ukraine, Poland’s PM takes aim at beavers, NYC adopts new tool to battle rats, Japan finds longtime death row inmate innocent
120,000: You’ve heard of the war on drugs, the war on poverty, the war on terror. But what about the war on beavers? Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is publicly blaming the country’s 120,000 beavers for exacerbating the deadly floods that battered central Europe and killed at least 16. Tusk called on Poles to “do whatever” to protect dikes, after saying beaver dams can damage riverbanks and weaken levees. “Beaver experts” (yes, they’re a thing) say that only a small percentage are problematic and that their dams can actually help slow river flows.
12: Speaking of a war on rodents, New York City is getting a new tool for its war on rats (a war it’s always losing). The city council passed a bill introducing rat contraceptives in a 12-month pilot problem. The bill’s sponsor, Council Member Shaun Abreu, says, “We can’t poison our way out of the rat problem, but we can certainly do a lot of damage trying.”
46: The world’s longest-serving death row inmate — Japan’s Iwao Hakamada — was acquitted after decades in solitary confinement for the alleged murders of his boss, the man’s wife, and their children. After 46 years of living on death row, he was freed in 2014 and granted a retrial. That trial has now proven that investigators fabricated the original evidence used against him. Japan and the United States are the only members of the G7 who still use the death penalty.