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Crowds at a rally for Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate, on May 29, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Polling day for Poland, China courts Pacific Islanders, Russia readies more troops
Poles go to the polls
On Sunday, conservative Karol Nawrocki and liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski will face off in the second round of Poland’s presidential election. There isn’t a clear favorite. A Trzaskowski win would give Prime Minister Donald Tusk a key ally for both his domestic reform plans and stable relations with the EU, while victory for Nawrocki would saddle Tusk with a determined political enemy who can block his legislative agenda.
China courts Pacific Islanders
At a gathering in Xiamen, China, on Thursday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told top diplomats from 11 Pacific Island nations that Beijing will provide $2 million to help them adapt to climate change and speed negotiation of trade deals that would open Chinese markets to more of their exports. A joint statement following the meeting did not mention US President Donald Trump by name, but it did stress there are “no political strings attached to China’s assistance, no imposing one’s will onto others, and no empty promises.” Who needs subtlety?
Russia preparing its expected offensive?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Thursday that Russia has massed 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s Sumy region, an area Moscow hasn’t threatened since the early days of the war. It is widely expected that Russia will launch a major offensive this summer to try to seize more territory and degrade Ukrainian defenses in advance of talks to end the war. It’s not yet clear whether Russia is simply creating a buffer zone to protect its Kursk region from future Ukrainian attack or it intends to expand the war into Sumy.
President of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, dressed in the national costume, dances as part of The Day Of Chechen Language celebrations in Grozny April 25, 2010. The Day Of The Chechen Language holiday was established by Kadyrov in 2007 to promote the national language.
Hard Numbers: Chechnya bans beats, Poland’s right stays strong, Biden cancels student debt (again), Argentina battles dengue, “Hardest Geezer” runs Africa
116: Can you feel the beat? If you’re in Chechnya, from now on you are only rocking between 80 and 116 beats per minute. That’s because a new law bans any music faster or slower than that range. The Goldilocks move, taken by the quasi-Islamist dictatorship of Ramzan Kadyrov, aims to shield the North Caucasus republic – which is part of Russia – from insidious Western influences. But don’t worry – as GZERO design captain Ari Winkleman points out, you can still listen to Radiohead’s “Creep” (92 bpm) on repeat in the streets of Grozny.
52.5: Polish PM Donald Tusk’s centrist governing coalition won just 52.5% of the vote in Sunday’s municipal elections, a narrow victory that underscored the persistent strength of the far-right Law and Justice Party, which took close to 34%, the largest share of any single party. Tusk’s coalition ousted Law and Justice from national power in bitterly fought general elections last fall but has continued to clash with the party over rule-of-law issues and appointments ever since.
25 million: The Biden administration on Monday announced a sweeping new program of student debt forgiveness that it said would give relief to some 25 million borrowers, including those who are either facing economic hardship, owe more now than they did at the start of their payback periods, or who have had debt for more than 20 years. The new plan replaces an earlier one that was struck down by the Supreme Court but is expected to face some legal challenges of its own.
232,996: Argentina is facing its biggest-ever outbreak of dengue fever, with some 232,996 cases of the virus already registered this season, nearly double last year’s figure. Experts say that warmer temperatures, potentially linked to global warming, are extending the breeding season for the mosquitos that carry the disease. Dengue is sometimes fatal and never fun – high fevers, severe body aches, vomiting, and it can be more lethal the second time you get it.
9,940: If you think your little 20-minute morning run is something special, consider the feat achieved by the UK’s Russ Cook, otherwise known as “The Hardest Geezer.” Cook just finished running from South Africa to Tunisia – ie, the entire continent of Africa. The 9,940-mile journey, which he ran for charity, took him almost a year to complete. To celebrate, the 27-year-old endurance athlete knocked back a strawberry daiquiri.Donald Tusk, the chairman of the Civic Platform (PO) party.
The showdown continues in Poland
What ignited the current fight? The imprisonment of two members of Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party – which governed for eight years before losing in the autumn election – following their convictions on corruption charges. The political stakes then climbed higher when Poland’s president (and Kaczyński ally), Andrzej Duda, sided with the jailed lawmakers and referred to them as “political prisoners.”
Poland could find itself in a constitutional crisis because the very courts Tusk wants to purge of Kaczyński’s political cronies are ruling against him. They are blocking his attempts to free the country’s political institutions from Kaczyński’s strong arm. It’s not clear how the impasse can be resolved.
Adding to the mess, the EU has pledged to unfreeze funds that Poland badly needs only after Tusk has managed to depoliticize Poland’s courts and state media, but President Duda has the power to veto many of Tusk’s plans, creating a stalemate that undermines Tusk’s popularity.
That’s why this ugly political wrestling match will likely continue at least until 2025, when Duda finishes his final term as president.
Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Zelensky's US visit lead to more aid for Ukraine?
I think so. Unclear why he had to go to Argentina for Milei's inauguration just before. That feels decidedly B-list for a guy that's running a war. But the US trip is important. And of course, he's seeing all of the senate Dems and Republicans, speaker of the House, as well as Biden and a bunch of defense contractors. Biden really wants this to happen. So do leaders of the Democratic and Republican Party. Biden has to compromise for support, both money as well as policy compromise on border security to get the Republicans to support it. I expect that will happen. So on balance, it's close, but I think you're going to get additional military support and cash from the Americans for 2024. That does not allow the Ukrainians to take more territory back, but it does allow them to maintain their existing defenses, which is pretty important.
Will Prime Minister Tusk's return to power help make Poland a leader in Europe?
Absolutely. And I think we're already seeing that in terms of Poland's role on Ukraine. We're seeing it in terms of engagement with von der Leyen on fiscal transfers and on general alignment on where Europe's policies are going on issues like transition energy, industrial policy, AI, you name it. I think that this is a big win for Europe and it's certainly a big win for the Polish people.
Is Prime Minister Sunak on the rocks in Britain?
No much more than he has been, frankly. I mean, he is potentially going to face a no confidence vote because of opposition to his migration, latest migration policy, but it won't pass. He's certainly out in the next election in the coming year and Labor's coming back. But compared to recent prime ministers in the UK, Sunak's been doing a pretty decent job. Essentially, he's a caretaker PM, post-Brexit. That's where we are.
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Can the EU get aid to Gaza?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Milan.
Can Europe help with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza?
Well, in theory, absolutely. The European Commission has tripled the amount of money available for humanitarian help to Gaza. But the problem is, of course, getting it in. For reasons that is beyond me, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is closed. There's a lot of floods of humanitarian help outside that has been flowing into Egypt, waiting to cross, but they are not opening up the border. I would hope that there will be soon an agreement to open up that border and allow the help to get into Gaza. There’re huge numbers, millions of people that are really suffering and need that particular help. Now, that is also politically important, obviously.
What's going to be the effect of the Polish election?
Well, in a rather dark picture, in terms of global and other affairs, this is a bright spot. A rather decisive win for the democratic and European opposition in Poland. Now, it's going to take some time to form a government. The PiS, the outgoing party, is still the largest party in parliament, so they will get a first go at forming a government. And I think they will try all sorts of tricks for a while. That's going to take weeks, but they will fail, and then we will have a new government. With Donald Tusk returning as prime minister, we will have a government in Poland that is decidedly democratic, committed to the rule of law, committed to European integration, committed to helping Ukraine. That is in a dark situation otherwise, distinctly good news.
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