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President of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, dressed in the national costume, dances as part of The Day Of Chechen Language celebrations in Grozny April 25, 2010. The Day Of The Chechen Language holiday was established by Kadyrov in 2007 to promote the national language.
Hard Numbers: Chechnya bans beats, Poland’s right stays strong, Biden cancels student debt (again), Argentina battles dengue, “Hardest Geezer” runs Africa
116: Can you feel the beat? If you’re in Chechnya, from now on you are only rocking between 80 and 116 beats per minute. That’s because a new law bans any music faster or slower than that range. The Goldilocks move, taken by the quasi-Islamist dictatorship of Ramzan Kadyrov, aims to shield the North Caucasus republic – which is part of Russia – from insidious Western influences. But don’t worry – as GZERO design captain Ari Winkleman points out, you can still listen to Radiohead’s “Creep” (92 bpm) on repeat in the streets of Grozny.
52.5: Polish PM Donald Tusk’s centrist governing coalition won just 52.5% of the vote in Sunday’s municipal elections, a narrow victory that underscored the persistent strength of the far-right Law and Justice Party, which took close to 34%, the largest share of any single party. Tusk’s coalition ousted Law and Justice from national power in bitterly fought general elections last fall but has continued to clash with the party over rule-of-law issues and appointments ever since.
25 million: The Biden administration on Monday announced a sweeping new program of student debt forgiveness that it said would give relief to some 25 million borrowers, including those who are either facing economic hardship, owe more now than they did at the start of their payback periods, or who have had debt for more than 20 years. The new plan replaces an earlier one that was struck down by the Supreme Court but is expected to face some legal challenges of its own.
232,996: Argentina is facing its biggest-ever outbreak of dengue fever, with some 232,996 cases of the virus already registered this season, nearly double last year’s figure. Experts say that warmer temperatures, potentially linked to global warming, are extending the breeding season for the mosquitos that carry the disease. Dengue is sometimes fatal and never fun – high fevers, severe body aches, vomiting, and it can be more lethal the second time you get it.
9,940: If you think your little 20-minute morning run is something special, consider the feat achieved by the UK’s Russ Cook, otherwise known as “The Hardest Geezer.” Cook just finished running from South Africa to Tunisia – ie, the entire continent of Africa. The 9,940-mile journey, which he ran for charity, took him almost a year to complete. To celebrate, the 27-year-old endurance athlete knocked back a strawberry daiquiri.Residents of Avellaneda protest against the DNU (Decree of Necessity and Urgency) and the Omnibus Law promoted by the government of Javier Milei.
The masses test Milei with major protest
Starting mid-day Wednesday, Argentina’s most powerful unions will stop work to demonstrate against the financial overhauls proposed by new President Javier Milei, as his omnibus spending bill works its way through Congress. An impressive turnout is expected for the march to the national Congress in Buenos Aires, with smaller solidarity protests across the country. Workers everywhere – from banks to domestic airlines to those informally employed – say they will join the strike.
Union leaders recognize the need for economic reform (with 211% inflation rates and 40% of Argentines living in poverty, who wouldn’t?) but object to the working class being tasked with carrying so much of the burden. Milei has already used his executive powers to slash subsidies for transport and energy, among other areas, but his administration says increases to childcare and food aid benefits are meant to prevent catastrophe for impoverished citizens. The radical cuts proposed in the omnibus bill are all but certain to be moderated in Congress, where Milei’s party holds only a small minority of seats — but no one expects a painless experience.
Is Milei’s honeymoon period ending? It’s one thing to wave a chainsaw around and yell about the “communist shits” in power, but it’s quite another to reverse Argentina’s century-long economic decline. A strong turnout against the cuts could put pressure on lawmakers to ease up, but don’t expect a collapse of the overhaul effort even in the case of a massive showing. The economic situation demands change – even unpopular change – and Milei’s rivals from former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s party are only too happy to let Milei’s approval rating take a beating before they make their move.Javier Milei, president of Argentina, reacts during a plenary session in the Congress hall as part of the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, WEF, in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 17, 2024.
Milei makes fiery Davos debut
Javier Milei’s first foray onto the international stage wasn’t so much to deliver a maiden speech as to give a “brazen hussy of a speech,” to use Winston Churchill’s memorable phrase.
The newly elected Argentinian president blazed into Davos like a comet and delighted libertarians around the world with his unabashed advocacy of free markets. He concluded with a rallying cry for the world’s wealth creators: “Long live freedom, dammit!”
The Western world is facing a significant threat because its leaders have been coopted by socialism, which leads to poverty and economic deprivation, he said. Motivated by good intentions, or the desire to belong to a “privileged caste,” leaders have abandoned the model of freedom for different versions of collectivism.
“We are here to tell you that collectivist experiments are never solutions to problems that affect citizens,” he said. “Trust us, no one is better than us Argentinians to provide testimony on these issues.”
Milei was elected to power at a time when inflation in Argentina is running at 140% annually and GDP is forecast to shrink 2.5% this year. The South American country defaulted on its debt in 2020. Milei has promised radical reforms, including deregulation and devaluation of the currency.
There was no evidence that he is prepared to dilute his agenda in his speech in Davos on Wednesday.
Social justice is not just, he said, and does not contribute to the well-being of the country. The state is financed by coercion, in the form of taxes. “The higher the tax burden, the higher the coercion.”
Milei outlined his version of libertarianism as comprising private property markets free from state intervention, regulation, and “the radical feminist agenda.”
He was scathing about “neo-Marxists” who have “coopted the common sense of the Western world” when it comes to the climate change agenda. “Fortunately, there are more and more of us who are daring to make our voices heard because we see that if we don’t truly, decisively fight against these ideas, the only possible fate is for us to have increasing levels of state regulation, socialism, poverty, and less freedom, and therefore worse living standards.”
“The market is a discovery process in which capitalists will find the right path as they move forward,” he continued, arguing that states should not interfere in the discovery process of capitalists. Punishing them “will produce less, and the (economic) pie will be smaller,” he said, calling successful entrepreneurs “social benefactors” for contributing to society’s well-being. “Ultimately, a successful entrepreneur is a hero.”
Perhaps not surprisingly, this argument had Davos billionaires rattling their Rolexes in agreement.
Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza coalition holds a placard depicting a dollar bill with his face on it, during a campaign rally in La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina, September 12, 2023.
Chainsaw cuts path to new Argentina-IMF deal
Argentine President Javier Milei’s dramatic spending cuts have provoked protests at home, but they’ve won him plaudits from abroad. On Thursday, an IMF delegation lands in Buenos Aires, reportedly to restart a $44 billion bailout program for the crisis-wracked country.
The eccentric, “anarcho-capitalist” Milei, who at times campaigned wielding a chainsaw, promised to slash spending to address an economic crisis that has driven inflation above 150% and plunged almost half of the population into poverty.
Since taking office, he’s halved the number of government ministries, devalued the currency by more than 50%, and deregulated dozens of industries. He’s now asking Congress for another 600 changes that would filet government regulations, expand presidential powers, and crack down on protests.
The IMF, which suspended its lending to Argentina last August after the previous government missed key reform targets, says his actions to date are “bold.” A fresh deal would unlock about $3 billion more in assistance, and not a moment too soon: Argentina owes the fund roughly that amount over the next two months.
The bigger question: Milei’s party has few seats in a largely hostile Congress – his power comes from a popular mandate for change. Keeping that mandate – which he will need to continue his one-man radical reform program – will require him to show, soon, that the economic shock and pain he is inflicting on society is worth it. The clock is ticking.
Demonstrators protest against Argentina's new President Javier Milei's adjustment policy, outside the National Congress in Buenos Aires, Argentina December 21, 2023. The banner reads, "For Sale".
Extreme economic makeover: Milei edition
Ten days after his inauguration, President Javier Milei set out to turn Argentina from a nanny state to a bastion of free market capitalism, announcing a sweeping set of economic reforms that uproot major sectors of the economy and have enraged the country’s powerful labor unions.
The decrees will privatize state-owned companies and strike down regulations in the housing market, export controls, the food industry, and other sectors to encourage competition. Worker benefits, from severance packages to maternity leave, will also be cut.
Thousands of protesters poured onto the streets of Buenos Aires on Thursday in response to the reforms. They were met with a massive show of force from the police, and no signs of backtracking from Milei, who said the participants “suffer from Stockholm syndrome … smitten with the [economic] model that impoverishes them” as he announced that further austerity measures were on the way.
Argentina’s constitution gives presidents the authority to act with authority on most areas of policy during times of crisis, which Milei argues fits the current moment since he devalued the country's currency by 50% last week.
But implementing these reforms will be an uphill battle. The reforms can’t stand if either house of Congress votes against them, which is likely given Milei’s lack of a majority and the opposition in the streets. Milei likely included so much in the decrees with the knowledge that much of it would be struck down – and in the hopes that if he threw enough at the wall, something would stick.
Argentine President-elect Javier Milei
Is Milei moderating? Argentina’s president-elect takes power
After running a scorching campaign that promised to turn Argentina into a Utopia of free-market capitalism by any means necessary, President-elect Javier Milei is cooling things down a bit ahead of his inauguration on Sunday.
Milei won last month’s election in a landslide by blasting the economic policies of the outgoing Peronist government, promising to slash government spending, cut taxes, eliminate most ministries, close the central bank, and dollarize Argentina’s economy.
But now he is aligning himself closer to the Peronist party he derided and hiring mainstream figures to help him shape his economic agenda, conceding that he can’t topple the central bank overnight. He is also moderating his promises to cut social spending, as powerful labor unions and working class movements line up against him.
Milei comes to power during the worst economic crisis in decades, with two out of five Argentines living in poverty and inflation up 147% since last year. But he’ll also be governing without a majority in Congress. His last-minute moves to moderate are at least partly due to the realization that he’ll have to win friends and influence people if he wants to make progress on his domestic policy promises.
FILE PHOTO: Brazilian president Lula da Silva hugging Ursula von der Leyen the President of the European Commission at the 3rd EU-CELAC Summit in Brussels, Belgium on 17 July 2023.
EU and Mercosur near trade deal (at last)
It has been a long four years since the free trade deal between Brussels and Latin America’s largest trade bloc was agreed in principle, but all sides now, finally, look close to signing on the dotted line.
European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plan to meet on the sidelines of the COP28 summit in Dubai to push through the final hurdles. If all goes well, the European Commission’s vice president for trade may attend the Mercosur summit in Rio de Janeiro on December 7 and bring an early Christmas present home for EU exporters.
The deal would create an integrated market of over 780 million consumers, one of the largest in the world. The European Commission estimates it will save over $4.4 billion in tariffs alone, and give Europe better access to minerals crucial for renewable energy applications. Farmers in Mercosur countries meanwhile – that’s Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, with Venezuela suspended, and Bolivia joining soon – are expected to get a nice boost, too, especially for their exports of beef, coffee, and soybeans to the EU.
So what’s the holdup? Environmental concerns, mostly. Some European member states have pushed for stricter external monitoring and protections against Amazon deforestation than Brasilia can stomach.That said, Lula has signaled he is ready to compromise in order to make good on his earlier pledges to revitalize Mercosur as a formidable trade power.
And Brussels has its own reasons to be flexible: after failing to land big potential deals with India and Australia, a third major trade failure could pose problems for the centrist coalition presently in charge as it tries to fend off surging right-wing challengers in upcoming EU parliamentary elections.
The effort could still fall short, but Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomson says all sides are aware the moment of opportunity is ephemeral.
“Even if they can't get everything they're expecting,” she says, “negotiators will try to advance the deal.”
But if they don’t, she warns, “it will probably go back into the fridge and take ages to be rediscussed.”
Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei gestures during the closing event of his electoral campaign ahead of the November 19 runoff election, in Cordoba, Argentina, November 16, 2023.
Milei’s win raises pressure for completion of EU-Latin America trade deal
Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election could rapidly accelerate negotiations for a trade treaty between the Mercosur trade bloc and the EU. Milei, a self-declared anarcho-capitalist, vowed to pull Argentina from Mercosur altogether if he won. His victory raises questions about the future of the bloc and talks surrounding the treaty.
A trade pact between the bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — and the EU has been in the works for years, and the two sides reached an agreement in principle in 2019. But talks have been stalled ever since thanks to disagreements over environmental commitments pushed by the EU.
The Milei effect: There now appears to be a mad dash to complete an agreement before Argentina inaugurates Milei, a far-right libertarian who’s drawn comparisons to former US President Donald Trump. Diplomats involved in the negotiations told the Financial Times they’re hoping to wrap things up by early December.
“The talks are moving ahead fast,” a Brazilian official taking part in the negotiations told Reuters.
As a climate-change denier, the Argentine president-elect could complicate negotiations on environmentally related matters. While it would be tough to finalize the deal before his inauguration, this might be the incentive all parties need to get to the finish line. We’ll be watching to see whether they can reach a deal before Milei takes office on Dec. 10.