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Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hold a press conference during a visit to the Airbus factory in Stevenage, Hertfordshire, Britain, July 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: UK and Germany sign historic defense pact, US Senate cuts public media funds, Togo heads to polls
UK and Germany sign major bilateral pact
The UK and Germany have signed a wide-ranging pact that covers defense, trade and cultural exchange. The deal is historic – it’s the first ever major bilateral mutual defense agreement between the two countries – and it comes amid wider concerns about the US commitment to defense of its European allies. This is in fact the second big European defense pact that Downing Street has signed recently – it inked a nuclear defense deal with France just last week. The moves suggest that, while last month’s NATO summit ended with smiles, flattery of Trump, and big new spending pledges, Europe’s trust deficit with the US remains significant.
Senate claws back federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting
The US Senate on Thursday approved President Donald Trump’s request to cancel $9 billion in previously-earmarked federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting. The House will likely follow suit before week’s end. $8 billion of the funds will be cut from USAID-related foreign assistance programs, while $1.1 billion will be pulled from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting – a major funder of PBS and NPR. The broadcast decision, based on accusations of liberal bias, could cripple local news in rural areas and smaller communities, where stations typically rely more heavily on federal funding.
Togo to go to the polls
The small West African nation of Togo holds municipal elections today under unusually tight security, owing to protests touched off by the recent arrest of an anti-government rapper. While nominally a democracy, Togo functions as a military dictatorship, run for decades by one family. Youth-led demonstrations calling for the ouster of Faure Gnassingbe, who has ruled since 2005, gained fresh momentum recently in opposition to constitutional changes that could enable him to rule for life. Any instability in Togo could reverberate more widely in West Africa and the Sahel.
Nigeriens gather in a street to protest against the U.S. military presence, in Niamey, Niger April 13, 2024.
Niger Pivots from the Eagle to the Bear
Hundreds demonstrated in Niger's capital, Niamey, on Saturday to demand the removal of US troops, much as they called for the exit of French forces last year. Niger’s military coup in July 2023 has brought changes to the central African nation, including a shift in military alliances. The nation is deepening its relationship with Moscow, as evidenced by the arrival last week of Russian military trainers tasked with bolstering Niger’s air defenses.
The junta has not yet expelled US forces after ordering them to leave last month. Until last year, the US had been a key ally in combating Islamic terrorists in the Sahel region, funding a $100 million drone base and training elite Nigerien counterterrorist units. But with Russia in the picture now, that cooperation looks moribund.
Unfortunately, some of those US-trained forces participated in last summer's coup that deposed elected President Salem Bazoum. Things deteriorated further last month after a US delegation visit led by envoy Molly Phee, when Niger's junta announced on state TV that flights from the American-built airbase were illegal and declared the US military presence as “unrecognized.”
Niger’s regime follows the pattern set by neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which have also distanced themselves from traditional Western allies, cultivated ties with Moscow, and shunned the ECOWAS bloc. We’ll be watching to see whether Niger’s new alliance with Russia emboldens the junta to further delay a return to civilian rule, which is supposed to happen by 2026.Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko listens to the presidential candidate he is backing in the March 24 election, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, as they hold a joint press conference a day after they were released from prison, in Dakar, Senegal March 15, 2024.
Sonko takes the reins in Senegal
Newly inaugurated Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, in his first act in office, appointed his mentor Ousmane Sonko as prime minister on Wednesday. The popular, reform-oriented Sonko will be the driving force behind big changes. Case in point: Faye's manifesto proposed an audit of the oil, gas, and mining sectors, which could bring more cash from natural resource extraction into Dakar’s coffers.
Sonko was banned from running for president in the most recent elections, but Faye subbed in, even using the slogan “Diomaye is Sonko.” Sonko is now calling the shots, says Eurasia Group analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu.
“Faye wasn't really a known political entity prior to his elevation to the PASTEF nomination,” he says, referring to Sonko’s political party. Faye could build a base of power, but Eni-Kalu says “he will likely stick to Sonko’s line, at least in the early stages of his presidency.”
Indeed, Sonko said he would provide a list of ministers for Faye — essentially appointing them himself. And when Senegal holds parliamentary elections, which could happen as soon as later this year, Sonko will be the figurehead voters rally toward.
Once they have a legislative majority, it’s a trickier balancing act to please both voters and investors. Some of Sonko and Faye’s promises raise eyebrows among overseas interests, like the oil and gas audit, but voters are expecting money to flow more widely across society.
“People want change, and Sonko and Faye intend to deliver change,” says Eni-Kalu. “But they’re going to sand down some of their more radical policies to pacify investors.”
A farmer opens a cocoa pod at a cocoa farm in Azaguie, Ivory Coast, October 22, 2019. Picture taken October 22, 2019.
Why Easter chocolate cost so much this year
The Easter Bunny is sweating over his chocolate bill this year thanks to rising prices. A ton of cocoa runs you a cool $10,000 today, double what it cost a month ago and triple what it cost this time last year. Still, the West African farmers who grow the world’s favorite treat have yet to see a windfall.
The culprit? Three straight years of bad harvests have led one manufacturer to estimate the supply of cocoa will fall some 500,000 tons short of demand in 2024. That’s about a 10% deficit – and part of the reason cocoa is growing in value faster than bitcoin.
Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana grow more than half of the world’s cocoa, mostly on small family farms. A combination of changing weather patterns and a growing problem with diseases are yielding fewer and fewer beans from each tree.
Farmers usually don’t benefit from higher prices on commodity exchanges in New York and London, since the governments in Accra and Yamoussoukro set fixed prices ahead of each growing season. This year, that was roughly $1,600 a ton. The practice has long left farmers underpaid and leads to underinvestment in their farms, which compounds dwindling productivity.
Long term, analysts say chocolate prices for consumers could double. With no easy way to boost production, this means the Easter Bunny may face an even bigger hop into next year’s baskets.Dakar, Senegal.- In photos taken on March 24, 2024, Bassirou Diomaye Faye (photo), leader of the main opposition party casts his vote during the presidential elections.
Opposition candidate Faye wins Senegal’s presidency in landslide
Preliminary results on Monday showed opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye winning Senegal’s presidential election outright with 53% of the vote. Incumbent party candidate and former Prime Minister Amadou Ba conceded to Faye ahead of official results, meaning the country will avoid a runoff vote.
Faye is a close ally of the popular opposition figure Ousmane Sonko, who was barred from standing because of a defamation conviction, but is expected to play a major role in Faye’s administration. Outgoing President Macky Sall delayed elections from their intended February date, in part to buy time to improve his party’s standing against Sonko, but was checked by the country’s Constitutional Council.
Tochi Eni-Kalu, a Eurasia Group analyst, says the delay backfired. “Strong turnout from Sonko's base, anti-establishment sentiment among voters in part driven by the election delay, and the eleventh-hour endorsement from the fellow opposition Senegalese Democratic Party” were what pushed Faye to victory.
Now, Sall will be expected to hand over power when his mandate ends on April 2. If all goes peacefully, it will underline Senegal’s reputation as the most stable democracy in West Africa, and run counter to the trend of military control and weakening democratic institutions from Mali to Niger.
However, Faye’s victory portends changes for Senegal, who like Sonko champions a more nationalist path. We’re watching how Faye approaches foreign relations, particularly with former colonial overlord France, which Sonko has criticized heavily.
FILE PHOTO: A supporter of Senegalese presidential candidate Amadou Ba holds a poster during his campaign rally in Guediawaye on the outskirts of Dakar, Senegal March 10, 2024.
Election delay fuels close contest in Senegal
Voters in Senegal face a choice between continuity or a new direction for West Africa’s most stable democracy as they head to the polls Sunday.
The country’s reputation for fair and peaceful transitions of power looked like it was at risk last month when President Macky Sall called for a 10-month delay of elections scheduled for Feb. 25. The move was an attempt to buy time to bolster support for his party and its candidate, Amadou Ba, but it backfired, according to Eurasia Group analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu.
"The Constitutional Council pushed back against proposals to delay the election beyond the end of Sall's mandate on 2 April, leaving him with no choice but to accept their rulings in the face of opposition and public pressure" he says.
Opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye is now riding a wave of momentum thanks to anger over the delay, but it likely won’t be enough to get him over the 50% mark he needs to win outright. If Ba also falls short, they go to a runoff, and that’s where it gets interesting. Unlike other close elections in Senegal, in 2000 and 2012, the opposition isn’t necessarily unified against the incumbent.
“The key thing to watch is how the other big fish align,” says Eni-Kalu.
If Ba and his BBY party remain in power, Eni-Kalu expects broad continuity with Sall’s administration. A Faye victory could see Senegal take on a more nationalist tack, though it’s not clear how far he can push the most radical proposals, like leaving the CFA Franc currency union.
File Photo: Nigerien troops, May 23, 2022.
Niger wants US troops out
Niger’s military junta announced Saturday that it would end the agreement that allows US troops to operate in the country. Niamey said the pact was “profoundly unfair,” and cited a “condescending attitude” and alleged violations of diplomatic protocol during a high-level visit last week.
Washington has been trying to find ways to work with the military governments that have seized power in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali to combat extremist militants in the region. But at the same time, the Biden administration has pressured Niamey to set a timeline to restore democratic control and reportedly raised alarm at a possible deal to sell uranium to Iran, which seems to have led to the rupture.
What happens now? The US has about 1,000 troops in Niger and operates a drone base monitoring suspected militants in the north of the country. The State Department is aware of the demand but has not commented on next steps.
If US troops do pull out of their base in Niger, it would remove a major obstacle for Niger to expand its relationship with Russia, as juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have. The former Wagner Group mercenaries have been absorbed into Moscow’s Defense Ministry and rebranded the Africa Corps, which is expected to deploy on the continent this summer.
A boy holds a sign to protest against, what a teacher, local councilor and parents said, the kidnapping of hundreds school pupils by gunmen after the Friday prayer, in Kaduna, Nigeria March 8, 2024.
Hundreds of children kidnapped by extremists in Nigeria
Over 300 children have been abducted at gunpoint in northern Nigeria in recent days. On Thursday, gunmen kidnapped at least 287 children from a school in Kaduna state, and another 15 pupils were taken on Saturday. Militants are suspected of kidnapping around 200 women and children from Borno state as well. No group has claimed responsibility, but the region is plagued by Islamic extremism.
Nigeria’s army is mounting an operation to locate and retrieve the victims, but locals fear their loved ones may never return. A decade after Boko Haram attacked and kidnapped 276 schoolgirls sitting their physics exams in Chibok, 100 remain missing, and over 1,400 children have been abducted since then.
Why schoolchildren? Boko Haram, the most menacing terrorist group in the region, targets Western-style schools, which they see as contrary to their radical Islamist beliefs, and often holds survivors for years, ending their education. Female survivors recount being repeatedly raped by militants they were forced to marry, and many fell pregnant. Copycat terrorists now also target schools to extract ransoms from families.
What we’re watching: President Bola Tinubu has sworn to rescue the children, and Nigeria’s army is the best in the region — but the local governor said there weren’t enough boots on the ground. Similar violence from Islamist extremists has driven coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which Nigeria and the regional bloc ECOWAS have struggled to contain.