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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kyiv gets a nugget US peace plan, Election day in Guinea-Bissau, Two men from Queens meet at the White House
A nugget for Kyiv in the US plan for ending the war
The United States’ 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine appears to contain many items from Russia’s wish list, but it has emerged that it also has something for Kyiv: a security guarantee akin to NATO’s Article 5, which says that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. The US and its European allies would be part of this guarantee. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces domestic pressure over a corruption scandal, said on Thursday he’s willing to engage with the plan – although he did draft a statement with European leaders that disavowed parts of the proposal. The Kremlin said it hasn’t formally received the plan.
This West African incumbent may struggle to win reelection
Guinea-Bissau, a West African country of two million people that plays a central role in global cocaine trade, is holding the first round of its presidential election this Sunday. One-term incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo faces fierce competition from opposition leader Fernando Dias, who has centered his campaign on security and keeping soldiers out of politics – a rather tough challenge in a country that has had several military coups. The issue hasn’t gone away, either: there was reportedly a coup attempt this year. Most incumbents have won reelection on the continent this year, often amid reports of vote-rigging. Will it be different in Guinea-Bissau?
Two men from Queens walk into the Oval Office
New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is heading to the White House today to meet with Donald Trump, setting the tone for the relationship between the leader of the US’s biggest city and the US president – and there’s plenty that could go wrong. While they both hail from Queens, they represent movements on vastly different sides of the political spectrum. If things go south, Trump holds a more powerful hand: he has threatened to cut off funding for the city, flood its streets with ICE agents, and send in the national guard. While Mamdani may hesitate to provoke the president, he’ll lose his base if he’s seen as cowing to the president.
A psychologist comforts a resident in front of an apartment building that was hit yesterday by a Russian missile, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Ternopil, Ukraine, November 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: US and Russia’s peace framework, West Africa on edge, Iran asks Saudi Arabia to put in a good word with Trump
Details emerge of US-Russia plan for Ukraine
The proposal would give Russia more territory, cap the size of Ukraine’s military, and grant both the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church official status within Ukraine. While it envisions some US security guarantees for Kyiv, it also prohibits foreign troops and long range weapons on Ukrainian soil. In its current form, some consider it a Kremlin Christmas list, though officials say it’s just an initial “framework.” The Ukrainians see the plan as a non-starter, but the corruption scandal currently engulfing President Volodymyr Zelensky may complicate his ability to push back. Who’s funding Ukraine’s war effort now? See our recent Graphic Truth here.
Military governments continue to struggle with militants in West Africa
Islamist militants with ties to al-Qaeda killed at least 10 government soldiers in western Niger on Wednesday. The attack from the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM) group, which controls a portion of West Africa that spans Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, will likely fuel further fears of these insurgents seizing power in this trio of military-controlled West African countries – the militants already have Mali’s capital surrounded (read more here).
Iran’s leader asks Saudi Arabia to help bring Washington back to the table
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian sent a letter to Saudi Arabia’s leader on the eve of his visit to the White House asking him to pass on a message to Donald Trump: please resume US-Iran nuclear talks. Since the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program during the 12-day war in June, diplomacy has stalled. Iran is getting desperate to return to talks in order to lift the sanctions that are crippling its economy and worsening chronic water and energy shortages. The note marks that Iran’s leadership may be scrambling for a breakthrough with Washington — now we’ll see if Trump bites.
US President Donald Trump and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shake hands as they pose for a photo, at a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Orbán seeks Russian oil carveout from Trump, Nigerien uranium to pass through risky area, Israel hits southern Lebanon
MAGA’s European hero comes to Washington – with a mission
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will visit the White House today to try to convince US President Donald Trump to allow him to continue purchasing Russian oil despite new US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms. Oil refineries in China and India – the largest two buyers of Russian oil – are already exploring alternatives. But Orbán is hoping he can leverage his personal and ideological connection to Trump to gain a carveout. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russian pipelines for nearly 90% of its oil, though other non-Russian import routes via the Balkans are also possible. With the opposition surging ahead of next April’s election, there’s a lot on the line for Orbán. Will Trump give his mate a favor, or put his foot down?
Will Nigerien uranium reach Russia?
French officials believe Russian nuclear giant Rosatom struck a $170-million deal with the ruling military junta in Niger to purchase 1,000 tons of uranium from a mine formerly run by a French firm. The reported deal is the latest sign of Russia’s growing influence in the region, at the expense of the former colonial power, France. The greater concern with this purchase, though, could be that the uranium will have to pass through areas of Burkina Faso that are controlled by jihadist groups. Islamist militants are gaining momentum in West Africa – they have the Malian capital surrounded – sparking concern among governments in the region.
Israel attacks southern Lebanon
Israel temporarily breached its ceasefire deal with Lebanon on Thursday, issuing evacuation orders before bombing buildings in southern Lebanon it claimed were a part of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. One person was killed and three were injured, per media reports. The Israeli military said the strikes were due to Hezbollah rebuilding its military capabilities, despite the Lebanese government agreeing to disarm the group. Fears are rising in Lebanon that Israel may resume major airstrikes if Hezbollah doesn’t give up its weapons soon, but Lebanon's government worries about inflaming local tensions if they push Hezbollah too aggressively.
People gather at a petrol station in Bamako, Mali, on November 1, 2025, amid ongoing fuel shortages caused by a blockade imposed by al Qaeda-linked insurgents.
Mali’s insurgency spells trouble for West Africa
One of the most expansive countries in West Africa is on the precipice of falling to an Islamist group that has pledged to transform the country into a pre-modern caliphate.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM), a militant group that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, has surrounded Mali’s capital Bamako, blocking fuel from entering the city of four million people, with the aim of bringing down the government.
If that happens, it could be a catastrophe for the 25 million people of Mali – particularly the country’s women.
“It would be the end of secular governance and a shift to a theocratic system and sharia law, the abolition of democracy, lots of violence and repression, massive displacements, terrible for women’s rights and deepening ethnic divides,” said Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
And it would be a geopolitical setback for the ruling military junta’s backers in Moscow.. But the damage could also, Ramier says, spread beyond Mali itself.
“It would be very bad for everyone,” Ramier said of JNIM’s potential takeover. “It would definitely affect countries beyond the Sahel and the whole West Africa region.”
Violent extremism has been a major issue across the Sahel for some time – an estimated 51% of all terrorism-related deaths in the world last year were in the region, per the Council on Foreign Relations. JNIM’s success in Mali has prompted similar uprisings in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. The most populous country in the region, Nigeria, has faced jihadist insurgencies from Boko Haram and West African offshoots of ISIS for 16 years. Even countries like Cote d’Ivoire, which has been relatively stable in recent years, hasn’t escaped the violence over the last decade, most notably in 2016 when militants murdered 16 people at a beach resort in Grand Bassam.
So what’s happening in Mali? Once a paragon of democracy in the region, Mali has been going through an internal conflict since 2012 when, in the middle of the Arab Spring, a US-trained Malian colonel overthrew the government.
The country has been under military rule and in flux ever since. A French invasion in 2013, welcomed by many Malians, was initially successful in knocking back Islamist groups that became active around the 2012 coup. But it quickly went awry, as militants reasserted themselves and a military junta that seized power in 2020 severed ties with the French, prompting Paris to withdraw troops later that year and abort the operation altogether in 2022. Russian mercenaries filled the power vacuum when the French left, backing the incumbent military regime which is now on the brink of collapse.
Which other countries are affected? JNIM also has a major presence in neighboring Burkina Faso, where it already controls 40% of the country amid a long running conflict that saw two coups in 2022 alone. Experts believe the momentum that the group has gathered in Mali will only make matters worse there.
Completing the so-called “coup belt” of Sahel countries run by military juntas is Niger, to Mali’s east. The military government there, which seized power in 2023, has also struggled to contain JNIM forces. Like Mali, Niger once had the help of a major outside player in tackling terrorism: the United States had a military presence there in a bid to boost the country’s counterterrorism efforts. US-Niger relations soured after the coup, though, and Washington withdrew all its soldiers from the country last year.
Where else could the jihadist insurgencies spread? Mauritania, Senegal, and even Côte d’Ivoire – all of which border Mali – could be the next targets for radicalization, said Ramier. Coastal states that don’t border Mali, like Ghana and Nigeria, may also be impacted.
Governments in these countries will seek to shore up security to prevent the insurgency spreading. They will deploy soldiers in areas where the militants are rampant. They will beef up border security. They may even seek help from western nations that would want to mitigate a potential migration crisis.
But the question will be whether they can work together to stem the spread. Ramier isn’t hopeful.
“I think the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS] will try to act and take a strong stance, but I think they will probably fail to turn the tide.”
Election season is here
As we race toward the end of 2025, voters in over a dozen countries will head to the polls for elections that have major implications for their populations and political movements globally.
Today, GZERO is highlighting three of them that stand out to us – in the United States, Argentina, and Côte d’Ivoire. The issues each of those electorates face are different, but the results could provide insight into the future of larger political trends.
Democrats seek a glimmer of hope
The United States doesn’t have a nationwide election this fall, but it has plenty of local ones to pique the interest of political nerds. These include the mayoral election in New York City, gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and state Supreme Court races in the purple state of Pennsylvania – Election Day for all them is Nov. 4.
“Democrats probably should win all those races for this election to be to feel like a success for them,” University of Virginia politics expert Kyle Kondik told GZERO.
Though these races are local, they have national implications, as the Democratic Party desperately seeks to build some momentum after a tough year. The party is struggling for leadership, its messaging has been muddled, and it hasn’t been able to even temper – let alone stop – President Donald Trump’s policy agenda.
One Democrat who has brought some life to the party this year is Zohran Mamdani, the nominee for New York City mayor. A democratic socialist, Mamdani rode the waves of a successful social-media campaign to defeat former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the primary, and is now all-but-certain to become the mayor. This doesn’t mean his message, though, will work elsewhere in the country.
“There may be something appealing about Mamdani’s campaigning style – the short videos, that sort of thing.” said Kondik. “But I don’t think staking out left-wing positions is going to suddenly be seen as a winning strategy.”
Can Milei clean up the midterm mess?
Argentine President Javier Milei’s libertarian movement is on the line as the South American country heads to the polls on Sunday in legislative elections.
The economist-turned-politician, replete with his mutton chops and sometimes a chainsaw, has become a figurehead for a global movement to slash the size of government via “shock therapy.” However, he’s faced some roadblocks recently: unemployment is increasing, the economy is slowing, and a corruption scandal sent government bonds tumbling over the summer. It didn’t help matters that his foreign minister resigned on Wednesday. This has all overshadowed the significant progress that Milei has made in cutting the country’s notoriously high inflation rate.
Though Milei isn’t personally on the ballot this year, an ally from afar has tried to throw his party a lifeline: US President Donald Trump pledged to hand Argentina a $20-billion bailout. The money comes with conditions, though. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump said. “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”
So what’s Milei’s target? Milei’s Libertad Avanza party is still nascent – it was only formed in 2021 – so it has only scant representation in the National Congress. What’s more, only a third of senators are up for reelection, and half the Chamber of Deputies. The goal for Milei, then, is simply to nab a third of all seats in the lower chamber, which will be enough to give him veto power.
Will it happen? “The expectation a couple of months ago was the government was expecting to have a very strong performance in the election and win at least a third of the seats.” Juan Cruz Díaz, the managing director of Buenos Aires-based advisory firm Cefeidas Group, told GZERO. “Now the situation is more challenging.”
Another old leader set to retain power on world’s youngest continent
Côte d’Ivoire on Africa’s West Coast is known for many things: it is the world’s largest cocoa producer, it has large gold reserves – particularly important with gold prices sky high – and it has had its share of world-class soccer players, most notably Didier Drogba.
One thing that the country isn’t known for, at least recently, is democracy. The country hasn’t had a peaceful transition of power in decades: two of the last three presidents were forcibly deposed, and the other was assassinated two years after leaving office. Meanwhile the incumbent leader Alassane Ouattara, who is 83 and seeking a fourth term, has clamped down on opposition leaders and restricted mass gatherings on the grounds that it could cause yet another coup.
What’s more, the opposition is fragmented, according to Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
“Nobody has successfully managed to mobilize against the fourth term,” said Ramier. “Whereas, on the contrary, many people are actually advocating for Ouattara because he’s got a good record, because they want stability and peace.”
Ouattara’s impending victory also highlights a trend across Africa: There are several elderly leaders across the continent, and many are set to stay in charge. It’s a remarkable trend on what is the youngest continent in the world – by some distance – and one that is fueling concerns about the state of democracy across it.
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hold a press conference during a visit to the Airbus factory in Stevenage, Hertfordshire, Britain, July 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: UK and Germany sign historic defense pact, US Senate cuts public media funds, Togo heads to polls
UK and Germany sign major bilateral pact
The UK and Germany have signed a wide-ranging pact that covers defense, trade and cultural exchange. The deal is historic – it’s the first ever major bilateral mutual defense agreement between the two countries – and it comes amid wider concerns about the US commitment to defense of its European allies. This is in fact the second big European defense pact that Downing Street has signed recently – it inked a nuclear defense deal with France just last week. The moves suggest that, while last month’s NATO summit ended with smiles, flattery of Trump, and big new spending pledges, Europe’s trust deficit with the US remains significant.
Senate claws back federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting
The US Senate on Thursday approved President Donald Trump’s request to cancel $9 billion in previously-earmarked federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting. The House will likely follow suit before week’s end. $8 billion of the funds will be cut from USAID-related foreign assistance programs, while $1.1 billion will be pulled from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting – a major funder of PBS and NPR. The broadcast decision, based on accusations of liberal bias, could cripple local news in rural areas and smaller communities, where stations typically rely more heavily on federal funding.
Togo to go to the polls
The small West African nation of Togo holds municipal elections today under unusually tight security, owing to protests touched off by the recent arrest of an anti-government rapper. While nominally a democracy, Togo functions as a military dictatorship, run for decades by one family. Youth-led demonstrations calling for the ouster of Faure Gnassingbe, who has ruled since 2005, gained fresh momentum recently in opposition to constitutional changes that could enable him to rule for life. Any instability in Togo could reverberate more widely in West Africa and the Sahel.
Nigeriens gather in a street to protest against the U.S. military presence, in Niamey, Niger April 13, 2024.
Niger Pivots from the Eagle to the Bear
Hundreds demonstrated in Niger's capital, Niamey, on Saturday to demand the removal of US troops, much as they called for the exit of French forces last year. Niger’s military coup in July 2023 has brought changes to the central African nation, including a shift in military alliances. The nation is deepening its relationship with Moscow, as evidenced by the arrival last week of Russian military trainers tasked with bolstering Niger’s air defenses.
The junta has not yet expelled US forces after ordering them to leave last month. Until last year, the US had been a key ally in combating Islamic terrorists in the Sahel region, funding a $100 million drone base and training elite Nigerien counterterrorist units. But with Russia in the picture now, that cooperation looks moribund.
Unfortunately, some of those US-trained forces participated in last summer's coup that deposed elected President Salem Bazoum. Things deteriorated further last month after a US delegation visit led by envoy Molly Phee, when Niger's junta announced on state TV that flights from the American-built airbase were illegal and declared the US military presence as “unrecognized.”
Niger’s regime follows the pattern set by neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which have also distanced themselves from traditional Western allies, cultivated ties with Moscow, and shunned the ECOWAS bloc. We’ll be watching to see whether Niger’s new alliance with Russia emboldens the junta to further delay a return to civilian rule, which is supposed to happen by 2026.Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko listens to the presidential candidate he is backing in the March 24 election, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, as they hold a joint press conference a day after they were released from prison, in Dakar, Senegal March 15, 2024.
Sonko takes the reins in Senegal
Newly inaugurated Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, in his first act in office, appointed his mentor Ousmane Sonko as prime minister on Wednesday. The popular, reform-oriented Sonko will be the driving force behind big changes. Case in point: Faye's manifesto proposed an audit of the oil, gas, and mining sectors, which could bring more cash from natural resource extraction into Dakar’s coffers.
Sonko was banned from running for president in the most recent elections, but Faye subbed in, even using the slogan “Diomaye is Sonko.” Sonko is now calling the shots, says Eurasia Group analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu.
“Faye wasn't really a known political entity prior to his elevation to the PASTEF nomination,” he says, referring to Sonko’s political party. Faye could build a base of power, but Eni-Kalu says “he will likely stick to Sonko’s line, at least in the early stages of his presidency.”
Indeed, Sonko said he would provide a list of ministers for Faye — essentially appointing them himself. And when Senegal holds parliamentary elections, which could happen as soon as later this year, Sonko will be the figurehead voters rally toward.
Once they have a legislative majority, it’s a trickier balancing act to please both voters and investors. Some of Sonko and Faye’s promises raise eyebrows among overseas interests, like the oil and gas audit, but voters are expecting money to flow more widely across society.
“People want change, and Sonko and Faye intend to deliver change,” says Eni-Kalu. “But they’re going to sand down some of their more radical policies to pacify investors.”