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Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell attend the informal meeting of European heads of state or government, in Granada, Spain October 6, 2023.
Hungary’s rift with the EU: Losing host privileges amid Ukraine controversy
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced on Monday that Hungary, which holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, has lost the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defense ministers over its stance on the war in Ukraine.
The controversy: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and accused the EU of having a "pro-war policy,” spurring an uproar in Brussels.
Hungary is also upset about Ukraine’s decision last month to adopt sanctions blocking the transit of oil to Central Europe by Lukoil, sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest. Hungary relies on Moscow for 70% of its oil imports — and on Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil firm, for half that amount.
Budapest responded to Borrell by announcing that it would not refund EU members any of the6.5 billion euros they expected for transferring arms to Ukraine unless Kyiv allows oil shipments from Lukoil to resume to Central Europe.
Why it matters: Since Russia's invasion, member states that gave weapons to Ukraine have been able to ask for compensation for transferring munitions, giving Hungary monetary leverage to get the oil it wants. Hungary and Slovakia asked the European Commission on Monday to mediate with Ukraine, and the issue would go to court unless the EU executive body acts within three days.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit | GZERO World
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit
Is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán undermining Europe and Western unity following this year’s critical NATO summit? Just days after Hungary’s nationalist leader met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orbán left the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC to visit former president Donald Trump, a well-known critic of the alliance, at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to ask how NATO members deal with a renegade ally like Hungary and the challenges posed by Orbán’s coziness with authoritarian rulers. Orbán’s rogue trips are a sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, on full display at the summit, but Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO.
“Orbán is freelancing on behalf of Hungary, and that’s not a new thing,” Sikorski says, “He’s been denying Ukraine transit of defense goods, he’s also been vetoing the release of European money for Ukraine.”
Hungary also has a complicated history when it comes to its international borders, and Sikorski worries about any leader who is willing to redraw a border using force, rather than diplomacy. He says any negotiated settlement in Ukraine should be negotiated by the Ukrainians, and warns that thinking a partitioned Ukraine is inevitable is similar to the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s strategy of appeasing Adolf Hitler in the lead-up to WWII.
“We can win this one,” Sikorski insists, “The Russians have advantage in tanks, but the Ukrainians have advantage in drones.”
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U.S. President Donald Trump greets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 13, 2019.
Donald and Viktor reunite at Mar-a-Lago
Former President Donald Trump is hostingViktor Orbán at his Florida resort on Thursday, less than a week after the Hungarian prime minister made controversial visits to Moscow and Beijing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President XiJinping.
Orbán was in the US this week for the NATO summit in Washington. Though his country is a member of the alliance, Orbán — an anti-immigrant politician who’s extremely popular with the US right wing — is frequently at odds with the West. His amiable demeanor toward the Kremlin, opposition to providing aid to Ukraine, and antidemocratic tendencies have made him an outsider in NATO and the EU.
Trump, a well-known NATO skeptic, has a lot in common with Orbán: He’s nationalistic, isn’t a fan of sending assistance to Kyiv, and has been criticized for palling around with authoritarians like Putin. And Orbán has notably endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Their Mar-a-Lago rendezvous came after NATO leaders spent several days discussing how to defend Ukraine and democracy — and as President Joe Biden desperately tries to salvage his presidential campaign amid calls for him to step aside. The meeting is indicative of what a Trump victory in November might do to boost the global right.
We’ll be watching to see what details emerge from the meeting, and whether it offers more insights on Trump’s plans for US policy on Ukraine if he wins reelection.
Piers Cazalet, director of defense and security cooperation at NATO, downplayed the significance of the Trump-Orbán meeting in comments to GZERO Media on Thursday at an event on the sidelines of the summit in Washington. There are "32 allied leaders" in the US for the summit and “it’s normal” for them to have a “broad range” of meetings “across the US political spectrum,” Cazalet said, adding, “That’s what democracy is about.”
But Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski talked with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the summit for GZERO World and noted how Orbán’s rogue trips are in sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, which was on full display all week. Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO. Watch the interview here.
FILE PHOTO: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attend a European Union leaders' summit in Brussels, Belgium, June 27, 2024.
Austrian, Hungarian, and Czech far-right form new EU coalition
What is this, a Hapsburg revival? Right-wingers from the political core of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire announced Sunday they would form a new Russia-leaning alliance in the EU parliament. Austria’s Freedom Party, Hungary’s Fidesz, and the Czech Republic’s Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, aka ANO, have committed, but the “Patriots of Europe” alliance needs at least one MP from four other EU member states to become an official faction, which they seem confident of obtaining.
The move draws a clear cleavage in the far-right camp between pro- and anti-Ukraine parties on Europe’s far right. Italian Prime Minister GiorgiaMeloni has forged a pragmatic path to electability by leaning heavily into support for Ukraine and the EU while insisting on hardline immigration policies. It’s paid off for her, but her approaches – and meteoric rise – haven’t sat well with some of the Euroskeptic, Russia-friendly old guard. This new alliance is their play for greater relevance in Brussels, to avoid being overshadowed by Meloni’s new kids on the populist bloc.
What we’re watching: Does Alternative for Germany, recently expelled from Marine Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy faction, join them? AfD won 16% of the vote in Germany during this month’s EU Parliament elections, and their allegiance would elevate Patriots for Europe. That said, the far right is already divided between Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy and Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists. Slicing off another piece only helps centrists like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sleep a little easier.Donald Tusk, the chairman of the Civic Platform (PO) opposition party, surrounded by party members, speaks during a press conference in Krakow.
EU drops democracy dispute with Poland
After six years of acrimonious disputes with Warsaw over allegations that the Polish government was rolling back democracy and eroding the rule of law, Brussels is now dropping the issue.
The spat began under the previous Polish government, which was controlled by the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice Party. It introduced judicial reforms that the top EU court ruled had curbed judicial independence. The EU imposed fines, partly blocked access to European budget funds, and initiated sanctions that could have jeopardized Poland’s EU voting rights.
The standoff was complicated by the fact that even as Warsaw squabbled with Brussels over domestic issues, Poland took a lead in supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia, a major EU foreign policy priority.
Burying the hatchet. The European Commission said Monday that in light of changes made by the centrist Polish government of Donald Tusk, which was elected last year after a season of deeply polarizing campaigns, it would drop the claims, confident that “today marks the opening of a new chapter for Poland.”
That leaves Hungary, governed by the proudly “illiberal” Viktor Orbán, as the only EU country still facing sanctions over rule-of-law violations.
China's President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan disembark at Orly Airport, south of Paris, on May 5, 2024.
Xi goes on (short) European tour
This week marks President Xi Jinping’s first trip to Europe in five years. The Chinese leader will only visit France, Serbia, and Hungary – three countries where he’s likely to find the friendliest ears – and meet with EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade tensions and China’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine.
Xi, who landed in Paris on Sunday, will also have a tete-a-tete with Emanuel Macron for the second time in as many years. You’ll remember that the French president raised continental eyebrows last year with a state visit to Beijing, where he declared that Europe should not be drawn into a standoff between China and the US over Taiwan. Macron’s independent foreign policy approach left a positive impression on Beijing.
This time, the French leader is looking beyond tensions in the Taiwan Strait. He told The Economist that it’s “in our interest to get China to weigh in on the stability of the international order.” Xi seemed to agree, issuing a statement that Sino-French relations “have established a model for the international community of peaceful coexistence.”
The two will discuss trade and security, with France wanting increased access to the Chinese market for its agricultural exports and protection for intellectual property rights for the French cosmetic industry. Macron will reiterate that China should stop exporting dual-use goods that power Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But we’re not holding our breath for any positive signals on that since the Chinese leader will then visit Hungary and Serbia, two countries with close ties to Russia. Xi’s visit to Serbia will focus on deepening trade relations – and it happens to coincide with the 25th anniversary week of NATO’s fatal bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. In Hungary, Xi wants to cement his relationship with autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has stymied EU efforts to hold China to account on human rights issues.Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban attends a European Union summit in Brussels, Belgium February 1, 2024.
Hungarian government roiled by sex abuse scandal
Don’t look now, but one of Europe’s biggest defenders of family values is embroiled in a scandal over the sexual abuse of children. In recent days, Hungary’s proudly “illiberal” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has seen his president and justice minister – both women – resign over the pardon of an orphanage director accused of covering up sexual abuse claims.
The justice minister’s husband has since accused Orbán of “hiding behind skirts” and blasted the government for corruption. Orban’s allies say this is just the yelping of “amoral lying bastards.” Spicy!
It’s not the first time that Orbán, who opposes LGBTQ rights, has run into the buzzsaw of hypocrisy. Remember when Brussels police caught one of his closest allies shimmying down a drainpipe to escape a gay orgy with drugs in his backpack?
Experts doubt the scandal itself will hurt Orbán, whose Fidesz Party won its fourth consecutive election back in 2022. Orbán’s grip on the media, coupled with the opposition’s weakness, will shield him, says Anna-Carina Hamker at Eurasia Group.
But the corruption accusations could prove more of a headache, she says, particularly if “they incite others to step up and speak out.”
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden attend a European Union summit in Brussels, Belgium February 1, 2024.
The EU stares down Orban
Serial political blackmailer Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, upset other EU leaders in December by vetoing a plan meant to provide Ukraine with a multi-year €50 billion EU aid package. The EU must, Orban insisted, pledge to revisit the plan each year the money was scheduled for disbursement – with any member retaining the right to veto the plan midstream.
This is money Kyiv needs to keep the lights on, and to pay pensions and salaries, as its war with Russia grinds on. Growing uncertainty over the future of US aid for Ukraine tied to America’s November elections added urgency to the request.
Leaders of the other 26 EU member states had decided that Orban wanted to use future veto threats to give himself more long-term negotiating leverage to win new EU concessions, and at a summit meeting on Thursday, they drew a line. Possibly in exchange for quicker disbursement of the remainder of €20 billion in EU funds already earmarked for Hungary – money currently locked up over corruption and human rights concerns – Orban accepted a plan that allows for future reviews of the Ukraine plan, but without a future veto.
In short, the EU played hardball, and Orban caved.