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The June 2024 LGBTQ Budapest Pride parade in Hungary.
Hard Numbers: Hungary moves to cancel Pride, China seeks to increase consumption, ‘Coalition of the Willing’ takes shape for Ukraine, HIV treatments run low without US aid, Tourists get cheeky at the Great Wall
200,000: Hungary’s ruling Fidesz Party has intensified its crackdown on LGBTQ+ rights by proposing a bill to ban the Budapest Pride March, just as the event approaches its 30th anniversary. The bill, which is likely to pass given the ruling party’s two-thirds majority in parliament, will criminalize those who violate Hungary’s “child protection” legislation that prohibits the depiction or promotion of homosexuality to minors. Event organizers have condemned the proposed fine of 200,000 Hungarian forints ($546) as a blatant assault on freedom of speech and assembly, as Viktor Orban’s Hungary continues its departure from the core values agreed upon by all members of the European Union.
5: China on Monday unveiled a new plan to revitalize its economy struggling to cope with deflation, unemployment, low household income, a property market downturn, and an ongoing trade war with the United States. The government announced steps to “vigorously boost consumption” by increasing the minimum wage and strengthening support for education and healthcare, with hopes to hit the ambitious growth target of “around 5%” for the year laid out by Premier Li Qiang. But the new guidelines lack concrete steps to stimulate domestic demand and are unlikely to upend the economy’s persistent structural issues.
30: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spokesman told reporters on Monday that “more than 30 countries” are ready to send troops to enforce a peace deal in Ukraine. Although he didn’t name names, the UK, France, Australia, Denmark, and Sweden previously signaled their willingness to contribute forces. This “coalition of the willing” doesn’t include the United States, but Starmer and other leaders suggest an American security guarantee is still key to a successful peacekeeping mission.
8: The World Health Organization warned that eight countries are facing the exhaustion of life-saving HIV treatments after the withdrawal of US foreign aid. Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria, and Ukraine are all in danger of running out of supplies in the coming months. At a press conference, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that “disruptions of HIV programs could undo 20 years of progress,” potentially leading to 10 million additional cases of HIV and 3 million deaths.
2: A Japanese man and woman were detained for two weeks and then deported for cheeky behavior at one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations. According to the Japanese embassy, the incident stemmed from a prank in which the woman photographed the man exposing his backside at the Great Wall. Reports say exposing the lower half of the body in a public place violates Beijing’s strict decency laws.
FILE PHOTO: The X account of Elon Musk in seen blocked on a mobile screen in this illustration after Brazil's telecommunications regulator suspended access to Elon Musk's X social network in the country to comply with an order from a judge who has been locked in a months-long feud with the billionaire investor, Sao Paulo, Brazil taken August 31, 2024.
Hard Numbers: X marks the spot in Brazil again, China stocks plummet on stimulus worries, Cameroon insists on presidential signs of life, Hungary embraces the olive
5: X was officially reinstated in Brazil, ending a five week ban of the social media platform, which had failed to comply with court orders to remove accounts that were spreading disinformation. X owner Elon Musk had initially defied the orders and refused to pay related fines, styling himself as a defender of free speech. In the end, Musk and X caved as the ban had caused Brazil’s 40 million X users to start using other sites instead.
7: Mainland China’s benchmark stock index plummeted 7% on Tuesday, in the largest single day drop since February 2020, a time when COVID was first spreading rapidly in the country. Analysts suggested the drop, which snapped a 10-day streak of gains, reflected fading optimism that the Chinese government’s current stimulus policies will be enough to perk up a sluggish economy.
31: He is not dead. Repeat. Not dead. That’s the official word from the Cameroonian government about 91-year old president, Paul Biya, who has not been seen in public in 32 days. Biya, who has held power since 1982, was last spotted leaving a China-Africa summit in Beijing on Sept. 8. Since then, he has missed a number of high profile events, including the entire UN General Assembly in New York.
12.35: Hungary is known for the delicacy of its goulash, the harmonies of Franz Liszt, and the architectural beauties of Budapest. But olive oil? Too chilly right? Not any more. Hungarian farmers are increasingly planting olive trees as climate change shifts the temperate zones of Europe northward and inflicts more frequent droughts on traditional Mediterranean olive habitats like Spain. A mere tenth of a liter of the stuff from Hungary now fetches $12.35 in neighboring Slovenia.Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), President of the European Commission, stands in the plenary chamber of the European Parliament and speaks while Vikor Orban (Fidesz), Prime Minister of Hungary, can be seen in the background.
Von der Leyen lays into Orbán over Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyenhad strong words on Wednesday for Hungary’s strongman, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, about his close relationship with Russia. After listing a fiery litany of grievances over Hungary’s democratic backsliding and undermining of EU support for Ukraine, she addressed Orbán directly. “There are still some who blame this war not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom, so I want to ask them: Would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion in 1956?”
The powerful rhetoric aimed at painful memories of Soviet tanks crushing freedom fighters in Budapest’s burning streets. Orbán, who had just delivered a relatively meek address about his plans for Hungary’s six-month EU presidency, denied von der Leyen’s accusation and denounced her for using the EU executive as a “political weapon.” Some left-wing MEPs sang the anti-fascist anthem “Bella Ciao,” prompting the parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, to remind them “this is not Eurovision.”
Why did the gloves come off? Von der Leyen and her team of 26 commissioners are going before Parliament for confirmation hearings between Nov. 4 and 12. Parliament has taken von der Leyen to task in recent weeks for playing softball with Hungary and is preparing to sue the commission over its decision to unlock billions in frozen funds for Hungary last year. Taking Orbán to task might just be what she needs to smooth things over before the hearings.
We’re watching how her message plays, and whether Orbán might change his tune toward Russia — but we’re not holding our breath.
Asylum seekers wait outside the foreign office in Brussels, Belgium.
Crackdowns against asylum-seekers gain momentum in Europe and the Americas
On both sides of the Atlantic, a range of countries adopted new measures to clamp down on asylum-seekers this week, amid rising concern about the political impacts of immigration.
Panama began US-funded deportation flights as part of an agreement with Washington to stem the flow of hundreds of thousands of people who transit the country annually en route to the US border. Immigration is the number-two top issue for US voters right now.
Brazil announced it will crack down on layovers who request asylum, after finding that many of them simply use refuge in Brazil as a jumping-off point for northward journeys to the US or Canada.
Hanging over all of this: Some 40% of Venezuelans say they may leave the country if Nicolas Maduro remains in power. Their exodus would exacerbate what is already the world’s largest external refugee crisis.
Across the pond, the UK, reeling from recent anti-immigrant violence, pledged a raft of new measures to stop asylum-seekers from coming, staying, or working in the country. Immigration is now the top issue for UK voters — the first time since the European immigration crisis of 2016, which helped fuel Brexit.
And Hungarian PM Viktor Orban took a page from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s book, promising one-way tickets to Brussels for undocumented migrants who arrive in Hungary. The threat comes after the EU fined Budapest for a strict border policy that is out of step with common EU rules.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell attend the informal meeting of European heads of state or government, in Granada, Spain October 6, 2023.
Hungary’s rift with the EU: Losing host privileges amid Ukraine controversy
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced on Monday that Hungary, which holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, has lost the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defense ministers over its stance on the war in Ukraine.
The controversy: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and accused the EU of having a "pro-war policy,” spurring an uproar in Brussels.
Hungary is also upset about Ukraine’s decision last month to adopt sanctions blocking the transit of oil to Central Europe by Lukoil, sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest. Hungary relies on Moscow for 70% of its oil imports — and on Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil firm, for half that amount.
Budapest responded to Borrell by announcing that it would not refund EU members any of the6.5 billion euros they expected for transferring arms to Ukraine unless Kyiv allows oil shipments from Lukoil to resume to Central Europe.
Why it matters: Since Russia's invasion, member states that gave weapons to Ukraine have been able to ask for compensation for transferring munitions, giving Hungary monetary leverage to get the oil it wants. Hungary and Slovakia asked the European Commission on Monday to mediate with Ukraine, and the issue would go to court unless the EU executive body acts within three days.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit | GZERO World
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit
Is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán undermining Europe and Western unity following this year’s critical NATO summit? Just days after Hungary’s nationalist leader met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orbán left the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC to visit former president Donald Trump, a well-known critic of the alliance, at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to ask how NATO members deal with a renegade ally like Hungary and the challenges posed by Orbán’s coziness with authoritarian rulers. Orbán’s rogue trips are a sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, on full display at the summit, but Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO.
“Orbán is freelancing on behalf of Hungary, and that’s not a new thing,” Sikorski says, “He’s been denying Ukraine transit of defense goods, he’s also been vetoing the release of European money for Ukraine.”
Hungary also has a complicated history when it comes to its international borders, and Sikorski worries about any leader who is willing to redraw a border using force, rather than diplomacy. He says any negotiated settlement in Ukraine should be negotiated by the Ukrainians, and warns that thinking a partitioned Ukraine is inevitable is similar to the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s strategy of appeasing Adolf Hitler in the lead-up to WWII.
“We can win this one,” Sikorski insists, “The Russians have advantage in tanks, but the Ukrainians have advantage in drones.”
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U.S. President Donald Trump greets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 13, 2019.
Donald and Viktor reunite at Mar-a-Lago
Former President Donald Trump is hostingViktor Orbán at his Florida resort on Thursday, less than a week after the Hungarian prime minister made controversial visits to Moscow and Beijing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Orbán was in the US this week for the NATO summit in Washington. Though his country is a member of the alliance, Orbán — an anti-immigrant politician who’s extremely popular with the US right wing — is frequently at odds with the West. His amiable demeanor toward the Kremlin, opposition to providing aid to Ukraine, and antidemocratic tendencies have made him an outsider in NATO and the EU.
Trump, a well-known NATO skeptic, has a lot in common with Orbán: He’s nationalistic, isn’t a fan of sending assistance to Kyiv, and has been criticized for palling around with authoritarians like Putin. And Orbán has notably endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Their Mar-a-Lago rendezvous came after NATO leaders spent several days discussing how to defend Ukraine and democracy — and as President Joe Biden desperately tries to salvage his presidential campaign amid calls for him to step aside. The meeting is indicative of what a Trump victory in November might do to boost the global right.
We’ll be watching to see what details emerge from the meeting, and whether it offers more insights on Trump’s plans for US policy on Ukraine if he wins reelection.
Piers Cazalet, director of defense and security cooperation at NATO, downplayed the significance of the Trump-Orbán meeting in comments to GZERO Media on Thursday at an event on the sidelines of the summit in Washington. There are "32 allied leaders" in the US for the summit and “it’s normal” for them to have a “broad range” of meetings “across the US political spectrum,” Cazalet said, adding, “That’s what democracy is about.”
But Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski talked with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the summit for GZERO World and noted how Orbán’s rogue trips are in sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, which was on full display all week. Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO. Watch the interview here.
FILE PHOTO: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attend a European Union leaders' summit in Brussels, Belgium, June 27, 2024.
Austrian, Hungarian, and Czech far-right form new EU coalition
What is this, a Hapsburg revival? Right-wingers from the political core of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire announced Sunday they would form a new Russia-leaning alliance in the EU parliament. Austria’s Freedom Party, Hungary’s Fidesz, and the Czech Republic’s Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, aka ANO, have committed, but the “Patriots of Europe” alliance needs at least one MP from four other EU member states to become an official faction, which they seem confident of obtaining.
The move draws a clear cleavage in the far-right camp between pro- and anti-Ukraine parties on Europe’s far right. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has forged a pragmatic path to electability by leaning heavily into support for Ukraine and the EU while insisting on hardline immigration policies. It’s paid off for her, but her approaches – and meteoric rise – haven’t sat well with some of the Euroskeptic, Russia-friendly old guard. This new alliance is their play for greater relevance in Brussels, to avoid being overshadowed by Meloni’s new kids on the populist bloc.
What we’re watching: Does Alternative for Germany, recently expelled from Marine Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy faction, join them? AfD won 16% of the vote in Germany during this month’s EU Parliament elections, and their allegiance would elevate Patriots for Europe. That said, the far right is already divided between Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy and Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists. Slicing off another piece only helps centrists like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sleep a little easier.