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Hungarian government roiled by sex abuse scandal
Don’t look now, but one of Europe’s biggest defenders of family values is embroiled in a scandal over the sexual abuse of children. In recent days, Hungary’s proudly “illiberal” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has seen his president and justice minister – both women – resign over the pardon of an orphanage director accused of covering up sexual abuse claims.
The justice minister’s husband has since accused Orbán of “hiding behind skirts” and blasted the government for corruption. Orban’s allies say this is just the yelping of “amoral lying bastards.” Spicy!
It’s not the first time that Orbán, who opposes LGBTQ rights, has run into the buzzsaw of hypocrisy. Remember when Brussels police caught one of his closest allies shimmying down a drainpipe to escape a gay orgy with drugs in his backpack?
Experts doubt the scandal itself will hurt Orbán, whose Fidesz Party won its fourth consecutive election back in 2022. Orbán’s grip on the media, coupled with the opposition’s weakness, will shield him, says Anna-Carina Hamker at Eurasia Group.
But the corruption accusations could prove more of a headache, she says, particularly if “they incite others to step up and speak out.”
The EU stares down Orban
Serial political blackmailer Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, upset other EU leaders in December by vetoing a plan meant to provide Ukraine with a multi-year €50 billion EU aid package. The EU must, Orban insisted, pledge to revisit the plan each year the money was scheduled for disbursement – with any member retaining the right to veto the plan midstream.
This is money Kyiv needs to keep the lights on, and to pay pensions and salaries, as its war with Russia grinds on. Growing uncertainty over the future of US aid for Ukraine tied to America’s November elections added urgency to the request.
Leaders of the other 26 EU member states had decided that Orban wanted to use future veto threats to give himself more long-term negotiating leverage to win new EU concessions, and at a summit meeting on Thursday, they drew a line. Possibly in exchange for quicker disbursement of the remainder of €20 billion in EU funds already earmarked for Hungary – money currently locked up over corruption and human rights concerns – Orban accepted a plan that allows for future reviews of the Ukraine plan, but without a future veto.
In short, the EU played hardball, and Orban caved.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela grabs Biden by the border, EU reaches deal on Ukraine aid, US strike on Houthi drones, Professional trust crisis, ICJ rules on Russia, Amelia Earhart found at last?
14: Venezuela has given the US 14 days to back off its “economic aggression,” or it will stop accepting deportation flights from the US carrying undocumented Venezuelan migrants. Washington has threatened to re-impose oil sanctions on Caracas after Venezuela banned the leading opposition candidate from running for president. But Venezuela is hitting Biden where it hurts: The migration crisis at the US southern border is becoming a major political liability for him, and Venezuelans are the third most common nationality of undocumented migrants apprehended.
50: The EU on Thursday reached a deal on an additional €50 billion in aid for Ukraine, breaking through a deadlock caused by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. "All 27 leaders agreed" on the support package, tweeted Charles Michel, the European Council president. Though Orbán is finally on board, it was not immediately clear what the Hungarian leader gained in exchange for abandoning his objections.
10: A US strike destroyed 10 Houthi drones in Yemen on Thursday, as Washington prepares to retaliate over a deadly attack on US forces in Jordan that the White House blamed on an Iran-backed coalition of militias. The US has repeatedly targeted the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in recent days in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
78: Who do Americans trust? Nurses, that’s who. A whopping 78% of respondents polled said nurses are honest and ethical, the highest of nearly two dozen professions. The bad news? That’s still down 7 points since 2019, amid a wider collapse of trust in all trades. The least trusted? No surprises here: members of Congress, with just 6% – lower than car salespeople! And just one profession is seen as more trustworthy than it was four years ago: Labor union leaders, who rose by one mere percentage point to 25% during that period.
7: After seven years, the International Court of Justice (yes the same court that is handling the Gaza genocide case) on Wednesday ruled that Russia violated a UN anti-terrorism treaty by supporting separatists in Eastern Ukraine, and a minority rights treaty by suppressing the Ukrainian language in Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. But in a setback for Ukraine, which brought the case, the court declined to rule on Russian responsibility for downing the MH17 commercial airliner in 2014.
87: Here’s some good news about America’s most famous missing aviatrix: An explorer claims his sonar imaging technology has found and photographed the remains of Amelia Earhart’s plane, which went missing over the Pacific Ocean 87 years ago as she attempted to become the first female pilot to fly around the world. Not bad. Next up, we’d like to ask this explorer to find us Jimmy Hoffa.US approves F-16s for Turkey, moving Sweden NATO membership closer
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How are things proceeding with the ratification of the Swedish membership in NATO?
Well, it’s been some back and forth. But now Turkey has ratified and that is important. That has to do with also the agreement with the US on deliveries of F-16s and modification kits of F-16s and deliveries of F-35s to Greece. A major package has been negotiated, so that should be okay. Now, remaining with Hungary. Prime Minister Orban is a slightly unpredictable fellow, but I would guess that he can't hold off for very long. So I would hope, expect this process to be wrapped up within a couple of weeks.
What about British generals and others warning for the danger of a major war in Europe?
There have been a couple of such voices. I don’t think they signify anything that is imminent in terms of dangers, but they signify a concern. What might happen if the war between Russia, the aggression, if that continues? If we don't have sufficient support for Ukraine, if Ukraine doesn't succeed, then that could well be the beginning of a much more major war and a much more severe security challenge for all of Europe. So I think what you hear, from different generals, should be seen in that rather serious light.
Sweden's NATO membership is imminent after Turkey's approval
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week from Davos on World In :60.
With the Turkish parliament officially approving Sweden's membership of NATO, will Hungary remain the lone holdout?
I don't expect it. I think that Sweden is joining. Erdogan still has to sign. So, I mean, isn't done done done until the signatures on. But NATO is being sold very, very effectively by Vladimir Putin, continues to expand.
How will the West react to North Korea arming Russia for the war in Ukraine?
Well, the interesting thing, it's not just that North Korea is arming Russia, that Russia is helping North Korea in return, including advancing their ICBM program, which historically was a red line for the Americans. But what are they going to do about it now? I also notice the North Koreans just kind of blew up their big monument for reunification with the South Koreans. They’re saying the South Koreans are permanent enemy, that reunification is no longer an interest of theirs. You know, the North Koreans now have more room to cause trouble because the Chinese aren't the only country out there that is liking them and restraining them. The Russians provide support and they're much more of a chaos actor. It would not surprise me if we're going to see more trouble from the North Koreans in the coming months.
Is a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas likely in exchange for the release of all remaining hostages?
Well, the US would love to see that. Qatar would love to see that. The Israelis are now willing to consider deals that even a couple of weeks ago they were not. Things are not going as well for them on the ground. They don't really have a strategic endgame in Gaza or with Hamas right now. And there’s even more internal dissent within the war cabinet. I don't see Hamas, though, supporting giving away all of the hostages, which is leverage for them in return for a short-term ceasefire. They're taking a maximalist view. Israel has to pull all of their troops out if they would consider that. And the ceasefire has to be more than a couple of months. You know, functionally permanent. It does not seem at all to me that we are close to a deal. Let's put it that way.
Sweden is confident it will finally become a NATO member
Sweden’s top diplomat is optimistic that the nearly year-long delay in his country’s NATO accession caused by Turkey and Hungary will soon be over. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom says that Turkey could approve Sweden’s NATO membership “within weeks,” and he expects Budapest to follow Ankara’s lead.
Billstrom met this week with his Turkish counterpart and spoke with Hungary’s foreign minister. “We expect white smoke from Budapest the moment there’s white smoke from Ankara,” he said, using the metaphor for conclaves signaling they’ve selected a pope.
Sweden and Finland broke long-standing policies of neutrality and moved to join NATO last year after Russia invaded Ukraine. Finland is now a member of the alliance, but Turkey and Hungary have obstructed Sweden’s bid. Expanding NATO requires the approval of all current members.
Turkey initially objected to Sweden’s application over allegations that Stockholm supported Kurdish groups that Ankara considers to be terrorists. Ankara also took issue with an arms embargo that Sweden imposed on Turkey, though that has since been lifted. At the NATO summit in July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reversed course and said he’d support Sweden’s bid after getting assurances that Stockholm would work to address Ankara’s security concerns.
Meanwhile, Hungary's governing Fidesz Party has accused Sweden of spreading “blatant lies” about the state of democracy in the Central European country and has stood in the way of a parliamentary vote on the matter. A senior Fidesz lawmaker recently said there’s “little chance” parliament will vote on Sweden’s NATO bid this year.
Similarly, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban in September said that his country is in “no rush” to ratify Swedish accession. Despite Sweden’s apparent confidence this issue will soon be resolved, it seems the Scandinavian country may have to wait until 2024. But we’ll be watching to see whether Billstrom is right – that Sweden could be added to the alliance in the more immediate future.
Viktor Orbán plays the ethnic card as part of his EU “schtick”
The Hungarian prime minister said Monday he’ll cut all support for Kyiv unless Ukraine addresses the grievances of ethnic Hungarians who live in the country.
Wait, there are Hungarians in Ukraine? Yes, roughly 150,000 of them, mostly in the far-Western region of Zakarpattia (Transcarpathia) along the Hungarian border. Before World War I, Zakarpattia was part of the Austro-Hungarian empire. After that it was kicked around between various powers — Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and the Soviet Union – before becoming part of independent Ukraine in 1991.
In 2014 — when popular protests ousted Ukraine’s pro-Russian president and Moscow illegally annexed Crimea — the new Ukrainian government cracked down on minority language rights in a clumsy effort to curb Russian influence. The measures affected Hungarians in Zakarpattia, creating grievances that Orbán is now exploiting.
Laments about the lost territories of “greater Hungary” are nothing new for the nationalist Orbán. But why is he suddenly losing sleep over the Transcarpathian Hungarians? The answer may have more to do with what’s happening in Brussels than what’s happening in Uzhgorod, the Transcarpathian capital.
For one thing, Hungary is perennially in danger of losing EU funds over Orban’s erosion of democratic norms, so he is always looking for leverage to stop that. Threatening to hold up EU support for Kyiv is a big pressure point and he knows it.
But this winter the European Union will also decide when to welcome new members and whether Ukraine should, at some point, be one of them. As part of that, the Union is drawing up new fiscal rules and may move to scrap the requirement of unanimous agreement by all 27 member states on key issues. Orban does not want that to happen, because it would vaporize his pull within the Union.
So alongside threatening to cut support for Ukraine, he’s also slow-rolling Budapest’s approval for Sweden to join NATO. It’s part of a pattern.
“It's basically blackmail,” says Mij Rahman, Europe director at Eurasia Group. “That's Orban's whole schtick in the EU now.”
Ukraine-EU farm export dispute: Are there any consequences?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from the airport in Madrid.
What are the consequence of the dispute now between Ukraine and the European Union on farm exports?
It is not really a dispute with the European Union because the commission has said that farm exports are okay. But then suddenly Poland has an election, and Slovakia which has election and Hungary, which has own policy, said, “No, no, we don't allow these particular grain exports from Ukraine because our farmers don't like it.” That runs totally contrary to the common trade policy that the European Union is running, runs totally contrary to the solidarity with Ukraine and support to Ukraine that we have all agreed on. So yeah, we'll see what happens. It’s a serious question.
What's the issue of using Catalan language in the European Parliament and the European Union as well?
Well, this is part of the efforts here in Spain to set up the new government. I mean, the socialists who have a very, very difficult position on negotiating with the Catalan separatists and the Catalan separatists, among other demands, are demanding that both Catalan and the Galician and Basque language should be official languages in the European Union. This brings up a huge number of issues, apart from making the European Union even more of a Tower of Babel than it is at the moment. The cost of translating every single speech, every single document, every single thing into the three languages brings immense costs, immense complexity. So expect the other European governments to say, “Hmm, we've listened to the demand. Let's ask the lawyers. Let's have a working group and let's do nothing.”