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Jordan Bardella, president of Rassemblement National or National Rally, gives a speech and flies French flags at a rally in support of Marine le Pen after her conviction on April 6, 2025.
Could Jordan Bardella become France’s youngest president?
Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old president of France’s far-right National Rally, aka RN, has announced his readiness to run for the country’s presidency in 2027 if current party leader Marine Le Pen remains barred from contesting the race.
Le Pen was convicted in March of embezzling European Parliament funds and received a five-year ban from public office, a €100,000 fine, and a four-year sentence, partially under house arrest. She is appealing the verdict, with a decision expected in summer 2026. Supporters of Le Pen decried the decision as political and an attempt to bar her from running.
Is age an issue? French law only requires that a candidate for president be over the age of 18. Current President Emmanuel Macron holds the title of youngest head of state, having defeated Le Pen in 2017’s presidential contest when he was 39. He is now 47.
What are Bardella’s chances? The 2027 contest is widely seen as giving France’s far right its best shot at power. Macron is required to step down after two terms in office, and polling published on April 5 places RN in first place, under either Le Pen or Bardella. Should Bardella be the presidential candidate, he would, according to today’s polls, win between 31% and 35.5% of the first-round vote.Marine Le Pen spoke at a support rally organized in Paris on Sunday.
Le Pen supporters protest her electoral ban in Paris
Approximately 15,000 supporters of France’s far right gathered at Place Vauban in Paris on Sunday to support Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party. The three-time presidential candidate was recently convicted of embezzling European Union funds to pay staff, resulting in a five-year ban on holding public office, effectively barring her from France’s 2027 presidential election.
The event was described by French media as more of a campaign launch than a protest. Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old president of the National Rally and Le Pen’s protégé, delivered a fiery speech accusing the judiciary of creating “a system determined to crush dissent,” while across the Seine, a small counter demonstration called for “No Trumpism in France.”
In a video address to an Italian far-right party before the protest, Le Pen invoked the legacy of American civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. as the inspiration for her “nonviolent, democratic struggle” against what she calls a politically motivated “witch hunt.” At the protest, she declared her intention to appeal the ruling, with a decision expected by summer 2026.
The timing of Le Pen’s appeal is critical for the future of France’s nationalist party. If her conviction and ban are upheld, she will be unable to run for president in 2027. While Bardella is popular, he does not have as devoted a following as Le Pen, and his youth and inexperience could work against him.French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, member of parliament of the Rassemblement National party, leaves the courthouse on the day of the verdict of her trial alongside 24 other defendants over accusations of misappropriation of European Union funds, in Paris, France, on March 31, 2025.
Le Pen barred from running from office after embezzlement conviction
Oh là là! A French court on Monday found National Rally leader Marine Le Pen guilty of misappropriating European funds to her far-right party, and barred the three-time presidential candidate barred from running for office for the next five years. Le Pen has denied wrongdoing and said last November, “It’s my political death that’s being demanded.”
Les détails: French authorities accused Le Pen of hiring assistants while she was a member of the European Parliament and using them to perform party operations, even as the European Parliament was paying their wages. As well as barring her from running for office, the judge sentenced the anti-immigrant politician to four years in jail — two are suspended and the other two must be served with an electronic tag. Le Pen will speak on French TV at 8 p.m. CEST (2 p.m. EST).
Plus ça change ... Le Pen is the latest far-right politician to run into legal trouble in recent years. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of corruption, the Brazilian Supreme Court ruled last week that former President Jair Bolsonaro must stand trial over his alleged efforts to overturn the 2022 election, and US President Donald Trump was convicted last year of falsifying business records in a bid to influence the 2016 election — he escaped punishment by winning reelection.
After a third-place finish in the 2012 presidential election, Le Pen made it through to the head-to-head runoff in both 2017 and 2022 but lost to President Emmanuel Macron on both occasions. She is expected to appeal this ruling, with a retrial likely taking place just months before the 2027 election. If she is allowed to run for a fourth time, she may be in her strongest position yet.
A boy holds a sign reading "Calin Georgescu President" during an anti-government rally in Bucharest, Romania.
Romania’s leading presidential candidate appeals ban
Georgescuhas appealed his exclusion.
The background: Last year, Georgescu – a once-fringe figure – won the first round of the presidential election after an 11th-hour flood of TikTok videos boosted his views: He opposes NATO’s help for Ukraine and admires Romania’s 20th-century fascist leaders. Authorities blamed a Russian influence campaign, without providing clear evidence, and canceled the results.
Why it matters: Foreign policy is one area where Romania’s mostly ceremonial presidency has real power. Romania, a NATO member, borders Ukraine and is a key piece of the alliance’s support for Kyiv.
Georgescu’s ban drew sharp reactions. Hundreds of his supporters clashed with police in Bucharest, and even Georgescu’s main opponent, pro-NATO candidate Elena Lasconi, who called the election annulment “an affront to the very essence of democracy,” has spoken out against the ban.
What’s next: Romania’s Constitutional Court will rule on the appeal by Wednesday.
The bigger question: Is it OK for a democracy to ban a leading candidate in the name of … democracy?
A man gestures toward security forces during an anti-government rally in Bucharest, Romania, March 1, 2025.
Tumult as Romanians defend far-right leader
Tens of thousands of far-right demonstrators gathered in Bucharest on Saturday to protest the Romanian government’s decision to call off a second round of national elections, deeming it an assault on democracy. A rerun of the first round is now scheduled for May 4, but the protesters want the government to reinstate the original result and hold a run-off instead.
Why was the vote canceled? The Romanian courts annulled the pro-Russia, anti-vaccine populist Calin Georgescu’s first-round victory late last year over allegations of Russian interference. A month later, protesters took to the streets, and in February, US Vice President JD Vanceslammed the decision as anti-democratic during his contentious address at the Munich Security Conference.
Last Friday, Romania’s pro-European coalition government survived a vote of no confidence, after a trio of hard-right parties accused the coalition powers of corruption. Authorities had detained Georgescu on Wednesday – notably, as he was en route to register as a candidate again – and charged him with giving “false information, false statements,” setting up an organization with “fascist, racist, or xenophobic characteristics” and forming an antisemitic organization, among allegations.
What’s next? The dissent means that, as GZERO Media’s senior writer Willis Sparkswrote on Wednesday, the once-obscure Georgescu now “may not need alleged Russian backing to win” in May – should he remain on the ballot.Romanian far-right presidential election candidate Calin Georgescu delivers a press statement at the Bucharest Court of Appeal, in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 19, 2024.
What to do with Romania’s Georgescu?
Last November, a Romanian election generated shock headlines across Europe when an obscure pro-Russia, anti-vaccine populist named Călin Georgescu finished first in the initial round of voting. Authorities determined that his rise to sudden prominence was fueled by a well-financed, slickly produced campaign on social media platform TikTok – and they blamed the Russian government, so far without proof, for funding it.
The Romanian government then annulled the election result, drawing criticism from US Vice-President JD Vance during a controversial speech earlier this month on threats to democracy in Europe.
But Romanian authorities face a problem: They’ve annulled the election but haven’t yet found a way to annul Georgescu’s candidacy for the election re-run scheduled for May. Now that he is no longer obscure, he may not need alleged Russian backing to win.
On Wednesday, Georgescu was taken into custody by police as part of an investigation into possible violations of an anti-extremism law. His detention makes clear that over the next three months, Romania will be on the frontlines of the fight between hard-right populists and political establishments, many of them unpopular, across Europe.
Ten thousand protesters gather in front of Duesseldorf Central Station to march against the AfD's upcoming afternoon rally in Duesseldorf, Germany, on Feb. 15, 2025.
Viewpoint: Far right surges to prominence ahead of German elections
Amid a deep economic crisis and renewed migration concerns, the far-right party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is poised to double its vote share in this weekend’s general elections. As a series of random attacks by Middle Eastern or Afghan migrants have increased the appeal of the party’s harsh anti-migration stance, its gains have caught the eye of officials in US President Donald Trump’s administration. In highly unusual interventions, presidential adviser Elon Musk has urged Germans to “move past” the guilt associated with World War II and vote for the extremist AfD, while Vice President JD Vance criticized the refusal of mainstream political leaders to work with the party.
Eurasia Group expert Jan Techau says the AfD has no path to government at present, but its increasing strength is transforming German politics. We sat down with him to learn more.
What are the main issues in these elections?
Two issues stand out. The first is the economy. With terms like “de-industrialization” being bandied around, this is no cyclical adjustment but a profound economic crisis caused by a decline in productivity, high energy prices, and high taxation. Every single party has acknowledged this, even the ones that don’t typically run on economic platforms. The second is migration, which had faded into the background a little, but has been revived in the last couple of months by a series of horrific incidents. In the last one, a rejected Afghan asylum seeker, who, for whatever reason still had a residence permit, drove a car into a crowd.
The war in Ukraine also preoccupies voters, but to a lesser extent at present. The issue is expected to gain prominence during the government formation talks after the elections, especially given US President Donald Trump’s recent outreach to Russia’s Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks.
What has been the impact of Vance’s and Musk’s interventions in favor of the AfD?
The AfD’s strong polling is mainly the result of the recent attacks that have stoked concerns over uncontrolled migration, not these interventions by external players. Still, their comments help the AfD by normalizing it and giving it more visibility and air time. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference sent a clear signal to the foreign policy establishment assembled there: The new US government seeks friendship with far-right nationalists in Europe and considers them its real allies. This has not yet translated into better polling for the AfD but has clearly strengthened its confidence.
How do you expect the AfD to perform in the elections?
The party appears on track to win 21% or 22% of the vote, doubling its share from the last elections and finishing second behind the center-right Christian Democrats, or CDU, which is polling at about 30%. The AfD won’t be able to enter government given the aversion of mainstream parties to working with it, but it will lead the opposition, allowing it to partially set the agenda from the political fringes. The AfD’s strategy will be to adopt an obstructionist stance to make the government look bad and improve the party’s position even further ahead of the 2029 elections.
The CDU recently took a risk by accepting AdF support for a proposed bill of harsh migration measures, which was rejected by parliament. Does that mean the gambit failed?
I think it's too early to make a final judgment on whether this move was strategically successful. The aim was to create more space for centrist parties to advance stricter migration policies without being accused of pandering to the far right. What we can say is that the move has not affected the CDU’s comfortable lead in the polls despite the harsh criticism received from other mainstream parties. So, we’ll see if the next government, which the CDU is expected to lead, can advance stricter migration policies. It's interesting to note that the Christian Democrats are one of the few center-right parties that remain competitive in Europe. In most other countries they have been eclipsed by formations advocating more radical policies on migration. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is trying to avoid this fate.
So, do you expect the CDU to rule in coalition with other parties, and if so, what does that mean for governance?
Yes, we expect the CDU to form a coalition with the Social Democrats and, if necessary, another party as well. Single-party majorities or minority governments are very uncommon in the German system. Of course, coalition means compromise, which could lead to an indecisive reform agenda that is not sufficient to address the issues we see at the moment. But maybe this time will be different and the mainstream parties can rise to the occasion. They know that the AfD is waiting in the wings and eager to capitalize on any governmental dysfunction in the 2029 elections.
When will we get some indication about the cohesion and strength of the next government?
The post-election coalition talks that will start shortly after the elections will give us an idea about what the next government wants to do and what – beyond the parties’ campaign rhetoric – is really possible. The war in Ukraine will also start to have an impact at this point, as the new government will have to contemplate the policy implications of Trump’s push to broker a cease-fire and get European countries to assume more responsibility for Ukraine’s security. The German mindset is very domestically focused, and the government will very likely be faced early on with requests to shoulder a massive new military exposure.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Spanish Vox party leader Santiago Abascal presided over the European Patriots Summit in Madrid over the weekend. The event brought together numerous conservative leaders from across Europe under the banner of "Make Europe Great Again."
From MAGA to MEGA? Europe’s far-right rallies in Madrid
Who are the Patriots and what do they want? Formed after the May 2024 European election, the bloc includes 86 members from 14 countries, representing 19 million votes. It is the third largest group in the 720-seat European Parliament, and it opposes green policies, migration, gender and family diversity, and “population replacement.” It wants to change the EU’s governance structure to one based on national sovereignty and boost Europe's economic competitiveness.
Could the Patriots make it happen? Other right-wing parties, including Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, or FI, Poland’s Law and Justice, and the German AfD have so far refused to join. However, in a letter sent in late January, the European Conservatives and Reformists group, home to Italian Prime Minister and FI leader Giorgia Meloni, urged the center-right European People’s Party to ally with the Patriots. And as tariffs loom, Le Pen claims that the group is the only one that can “talk with the new Trump administration.”
We’ll be watching whether the AfD or other parties change their tune about joining the Patriots – and how this impacts the EU’s ability to negotiate with Trump.