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15th January 2024 Geert Wilders arrives at palace on the Dam for the Dutch Kings annual New Years Reception.
Wilders in the wilderness: Far-right Dutchman drops PM bid
Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders will not become prime minister of his country, despite getting the most votes in last year’s election.
Although Wilders’ PVV party swept to victory on a scorching anti-Islam and anti-migrant “Dutch First” message, he still needed coalition partners to form a government. Months of talks with a handful of center-right parties ended this week without support for Wilders as PM.
The result prolongs the political uncertainty for the Netherlands, which looks headed for a bizarre “extra-parliamentary cabinet” headed by a technocrat cabinet in which none of the ministers is from the PVV or the other three parties.
On the one hand, the episode is another example of the practical limits for European far-right parties, despite their rising electoral fortunes. (We saw something similar in Portugal last weekend, where the far-right Chega party was sweet at the polls but still too toxic for a coalition.)
But watch closely. Wilders has said he would “like a right-wing cabinet.” Will Wilders, given his obvious popularity, be able to pull policy rightward even from outside the government?
People wait for Socialist Party (PS) Secretary General Pedro Nuno Santos to arrive for a campaign rally ahead of the snap elections in Afurada, Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal, March 4, 2024.
Portugal election after corruption scandal fuels far-right
“A good place to stash books. Or to stash 75,800 euros." So reads a bold IKEA bookcase ad with a wink to the scandal of that amount of cash being discovered in books in Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa's office. That tells you everything you need to know about the country’s election this Sunday.
Portugal’s vote is all about corruption, and we think IKEA’s marketing team deserves a raise.
The discovery brought down the center-left government and fueled the hard-right populist party, Chega, which is expected to double its seats thanks to voters disenchanted with mainstream political parties. One of Western Europe’s poorest countries, Portugal has shifted right due to economic malaise over stagnated wages and inflation.
The center-right Democratic Alliance is expected to win the most votes but fall short of a parliamentary majority, positioning Chega as the kingmaker of the right-wing coalition.
The historical irony: The election takes place on the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution that swept away the right-wing dictatorship that had kept the country in shackles for four decades.
Chega’s rising popularity is a sign that Portugal may not be immune to rising populism across Europe, which is expected to result in major gains for the far-right in European elections in June.
Dutch far-right politician and leader of the PVV, Geert Wilders, reacts as he meets the press in November 2023.
Who will work with Wilders?
That process isn’t going well. Success began looking less likely Tuesday evening when the center-right New Social Contract party announced it would not join a PVV-led government. The NSC’s leader explained that Wilders has made economic promises his party can’t keep, though the NSC also has concerns about the Islamophobic rhetoric that’s central to Wilders’ political brand.
Wilders will continue to try to form a right-wing government. If he fails, the Netherlands might see a Labour-Green alliance that shifts the country’s government to the left. Failing that, they might hold new elections. The talks were supposed to produce a report to parliament before it breaks for recess on Feb. 16, but it’s not clear that deadline can be met.
As in some other European countries – Germany, for example – far-right parties are surging, but few will partner with them to form governments.Protesters march while carrying placards and chanting slogans in the "Feminists March Against Femicide" in Kenya.
Hard Numbers: Kenyans march against femicide, Corruption costs Ukrainian defense, Germans protest far right, Evergrande tries to avoid liquidation (again), Say more than ‘Oui’ to Paris!
14: So far this year, 14 women have been murdered as a result of gender-based violence in Kenya, and thousands took to the streets in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, on Saturday in response. Nearly a third of Kenyan women face physical violence at some point in their lives, while 13% are victims of sexual violence, according to a 2023 government report.
40 million: The country’s security service, SBU, says five employees from a Ukrainian arms company have been charged with conspiring with officials to embezzle nearly $40 million from defense coffers. The money, meant for buying mortar shells to aid the fight against Russia, has been seized and returned to the defense budget. But the incident signals how Ukraine’s battle against corruption continues.
100,000: Protests were held in 30 German cities on Saturday, with up to 100,000 people demonstrating against far-right extremism in Deutschland. The protests – coincidently held on International Holocaust Remembrance Day – were a rebuke of the anti-immigrant rhetoric peddled by the increasingly popular Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, just months ahead of three major regional elections in eastern Germany where the AfD tends to do well.
$300 billion: A court in Hong Kong ordered Chinese property development giant Evergrande to liquidate as it struggles to restructure debts to service over $300 billion in liabilities. It is unclear whether China will allow foreign investors to seize Evergrande assets, and there are fears of major ramifications for the Chinese economy as a whole.
A2-B1: If you dream of moving to Paris, you’ll need to dust off your Petit Larousse and embrace the subjunctive. While French competence was previously only required for those seeking French citizenship, a new law passed on Saturday requires anyone applying for multi-year residency to prove they understand French at the A2 level (advanced beginner). And a 10-year residency card now requires a B1 (intermediate) level of proficiency.Tucker Carlson, Liberator?
Tucker Carlson visited Canada this week to “liberate” it from … from what exactly?
Well, that’s what thousands of people – including the premier of Alberta – came to Calgary and Edmonton to hear in packed arenas.
Tucker’s two-day liberation tour from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s “authoritarian dictatorship” is timed perfectly around two political pieces of populist kindling: Trump’s march to victory in the US presidential primaries and a Canadian judge’s ruling that the Liberal government’s invocation of the Emergencies Act during the Trucker pandemic protest was “unreasonable” and unconstitutional.
It all sent a message: The populist forces are gathering and ready to take down Trudeau (and Biden) and save Canada from “disgusting decline.”
Here are the things destroying Canada, according to Liberator Carlson: mass immigration, medical assistance in dying (“genocide”), legalized pot, transgender people, the woke folks, the media, big tech, a “metrosexual” prime minister, anti-Christian groups, solar panels … and then, the great biggie, the authoritarian state itself, which exposed itself during the pandemic. “This is a destruction of you and your culture and your beliefs and your children and your future,” Tucker breathlessly summarized.
Pause for a moment on that sentence, because in it lies, perhaps, the most challenging dynamic facing democracies worldwide: hate disguised as anger. The stark casting of politics as a personal, apocalyptic battle over the imminent destruction of … everything. Your culture. Your beliefs. Your children. Your future.
In Tucker’s End-of-Days casting, this is not a mere election cycle, a debate of ideas, or even a culture war. It is a war. Period. Mao Zedong once said “politics is war without bloodshed,” but as the rhetoric keeps getting hotter and political opponents are increasingly viewed as personal enemies, the lines between politics and war are dangerously blurred. And it raises the question, how to respond to this?
The first thing to establish is that a fierce debate of ideas is the core of democracy. Freely disagreeing with others is the whole shemozzle here, so protecting and defending the right of people to say things you disagree with (outside of hate speech, etc.) is foundational. Disagreement doesn’t make someone the enemy; it makes them a partner in democracy. That’s why the arrest of a commentator from Rebel News as he chased down a Canadian minister was fundamentally wrong. And why having Carlson come to Canada is perfectly normal. It may have a political impact, but it was not and should not be banned. Questioning power and protecting speech is core democratic stuff.
It's also why debates and court cases over, say, the government’s use of the Emergencies Act in Canada are critical.
But contrary to Carlson’s distorted mirror, this happens all the time. That’s why willfully twisting facts, playing footsie with hate speech – Carlson’s stock in trade as he profits from paranoia – needs an equally robust response.
For example, the Emergencies Act is a controversial tool, but the fact is, it was heavily scrutinized when invoked. There was a vote in Parliament, a built-in sunset clause (it was only in use for nine days), an inquiry headed by Justice Paul Rouleau (whose scope included access to confidential cabinet documents), and court cases from civil liberties groups … who just won!
Hardly the hallmarks of a dictatorship. It is the robust debate about a government’s use and overuse of powers, which is ongoing in any democracy. Torquing this stuff as some kind of fascistic conspiracy erodes the hard work it took to build these check and balance systems in the first place.
On one hand, the media and politicians have to be extra transparent, open, and fair, and they should take criticism about their own biases and assumptions. On the other hand, they can’t be scared to check facts, call bullshit, and avoid promoting hate.
For example, as Carlson raged about the government’s overreach on COVID – “hey Canada forcing people to take an untested medicine is not a good idea” – he left out the fact that in January, February, and March of 2020, HE was one of the leading voices calling on the government to do MORE. “People you know will get sick …Some may die. This is real,” he said. In March, he actually visited Donald Trump in the White House to urge him to take stronger action. “Anybody who imagined that this was just media hype turned out to be wrong,” Carlson said. “Feb. 3 is the day that it was confirmed to me by a US government official that this was a huge problem and that a lot of people could die. That’s when I learned it. And that’s the night we went on the air and said, "Wow this is something you really need to worry about.’”
Did Tucker mention any of this during his liberation tour? Is calling out his own call for action against the dangers of COVID political bias or just fact-checking
the revisionist history he’s peddling?
I guess this used to be called “standards,” but standards of shame, debate, and humanity have been abolished by the anonymous shield of social media, the political efficacy of disinformation, and the profitability of anger. Both the far right and the far left, among other culprits, bear responsibility. This is not bothsidesism. The fringes of both political spectrums have destroyed the middle ground on a host of issues – the pandemic, Ukraine, Israel-Gaza – and made reasonable dialogue a helluva lot harder.
Where does it end up?
Look, people are scared about where we are headed, but let’s not arm up.
Maybe it’s just good to remind folks that in the US and Canada, though there are real and deep problems, we have it pretty darn good next to, well, almost anywhere.
In the US this week, inflation was 3%, wage growth was 3% and employment was 3%. Look around the world. That’s not bad.
It sure as heck doesn’t look like the apocalypse or like your children will be destroyed.
Wars require liberators. Democracies require candidates.
Dutch far-right politician and leader of the Freedom Party Geert Wilders gestures as he meets with party members after the parliamentary elections in The Hague, Netherlands, on Nov. 23, 2023.
Dutch voters take hard-right turn: Will more of the EU follow?
Wilders has long promoted anti-Muslim policies, including a ban on Islamic schools, Qurans, mosques, and the wearing of hijab inside government buildings. Wilders has now tempered these pledges, saying he will “continue to moderate” his policies as coalition talks resume on Monday.
Wilders’ Freedom Party is expected to obtain 37 seats in the 150-seat Parliament, which falls short of the 76 needed under the Netherlands’ proportional representation system to secure a majority of seats. He must cement alliances with enough other parties to do so, and his dance card includes the center-right New Social Contract Party, with 20 seats, as well as the right-leaning People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, aka VVV, which formed the previous government, now with 24 seats.
Outgoing VVV Prime Minister Mark Rutte says he will not join Wilders’ coalition but could back a “centre-right” government. NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt said he could not enter a coalition with Wilders unless he recanted the Quran and mosque ban. And Wilders wants to cut EU funding and promised a referendum on membership, while Omtzigt opposes a “Nexit.”
Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán toasted Wilder’s win, saying “The winds of change are here!” Far-right Flemish independence leader Tom Van Grieken, who is leading in the polls for Belgium’s June 2024 elections, also congratulated Wilders, saying “Parties like ours are on their way in the whole of Europe.”
But perhaps the most significant beneficiary could be Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National, who also cheered Wilders’ victory. Rassemblement National is leading opinion polls in France for next June’s elections to the European Parliament, with 28% of the vote compared to 19% for French President Emmanuel Macron’s party and its allies. A shift to the right could reverse the EU’s stand on policies related to climate action, EU reform, and weapons for Ukraine, while also impacting migration policies.
At a civic march against antisemitism in Paris this weekend, a far-right political procession saw Marine Le Pen, president and deputy of the Rassemblement National group (center) demonstrate along with her deputies, including Sebastien Chenu (left) and Jordan Bardella, president of the RN (right).
Will Gaza-related protests shake up national politics?
Israel’s war against Hamas inspired a weekend of international protests. In London, more than 300,000 people marched on Saturday, calling for a cease-fire in Gaza. In the United States, pro-Palestine marchers gathered near President Joe Biden’s home in Delaware, chanting “Biden, Biden you can’t hide. We charge you with genocide.”
Meanwhile, in Paris on Sunday, a 100,000-person march against antisemitism saw Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, take part, while Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing France Unbowed refused to attend because he felt it was a "rendezvous for unconditional supporters of the massacre [of Gazans]."
Will divisions over Israel’s war have electoral implications? In Britain, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is favored to win the next election, but his refusal to call for a cease-fire has provoked a rebellion within his party. One shadow minister recently remarked that Labour was “hemorrhaging Muslim votes massively – enough to lose seats if there was an election tomorrow.”
In the US,Biden’s handling of the Gaza crisis has split Democrats, with nearly half disapproving of his approach. Meanwhile, support for the president among Arab and Muslims has plummeted – one recent poll showed support for him dropping from 59% to just 17% among Arab Americans – potentially putting him in electoral jeopardy in key swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania which are home to sizable Arab and Muslim populations.
We’ll be watching to see whether politicians on the left are punished for their pro-Israel stances in upcoming elections and whether this will lead to a longer-term realignment.
Can a far-right populist win in Argentina?
For the first time ever, someone unaffiliated with either of Argentina’s two main political blocs is making a serious run at the presidency. In fact, Javier Milei is not a traditional politician but an eccentric economist and TV provocateur who promises radical measures to rescue an economy in shambles and tame an annual inflation rate hovering over 100%. He claims to not have brushed his hair since he was 13 and is famous for antics like auctioning off his paycheck. With six months to go to the Oct. 22 election, Milei's message is resonating especially with young voters fed up with a political establishment that has long been unable to solve the country’s problems. Let's learn more about this guy from Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov.
Who is Javier Milei?
A former university professor and corporate economist, the 52-year-old Milei first captured the public’s attention as a conservative pundit on television talk shows. His unruly hair, wild eyes, and inflammatory statements – for example, calling politicians “thieves” and “criminals” – made him a charismatic figure. In 2021, Milei won a seat in congress. Now, he is running for president as the head of his Liberty Advances party.
What are Milei’s political views?
His views have a lot in common with those of far-right populists such as Donald Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Milei believes politics is a no-holds-barred contest between the “good guys” and the “bad guys,” the latter represented by traditional political parties from the left to the center right of the political spectrum, which he calls the “caste.” He opposes feminism and abortion as part of a crusade against “cultural Marxism” that he believes has awarded minority groups with too many rights, to the detriment of what he considers ordinary people. And he promises a return to an early-20th-century golden era when Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world thanks to its booming agricultural and beef exports.
Milei calls himself an “anarcho-capitalist” – what does that mean?
Anarcho-capitalists seek the dismantling of the state and the creation of a society regulated solely by the free interactions of individuals and their property. But given the impossibility of implementing this vision in the real world, Milei wants to reduce the state’s presence to a bare minimum. He has proposed eliminating several ministries, privatizing state-owned companies, dollarizing the economy, and shuttering the central bank.
Why is Milei so popular?
He is a gifted demagogue who has effectively tapped into a rising tide of antiestablishment sentiment. Opinion surveys show that his popularity is driven more by his vehement criticism of the political elite than by his radical policy proposals and references to economic theories most people have never heard of. Yet the simplicity of the solutions he offers to intractable problems also has appeal for many voters – especially his proposal to replace the country’s currency with the dollar as a remedy for runaway inflation.
What are his main strengths and weaknesses as a candidate?
Novelty is his biggest strength. He has not previously been in government, so he can freely criticize the two main political coalitions, blaming them for all the country’s problems. Yet his rhetoric is too radical to win over many voters, and he lacks an organization capable of conducting an effective national campaign. Nor does he have a team ready to assume office if he wins.
What do the polls say about his chances?
Polls in Argentina do not have a good track record, so they need to be taken with a pinch of salt. The latest polling is tied to the Aug. 13 primaries (everyone running for president in Argentina is required to participate in the primaries, even if they are their parties’ only candidates, as in Milei’s case). Recent surveys show that about 20% of respondents say they would vote for Milei in the primaries, second only to the share supporting Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (25%), who is not running. That said, the two potential candidates for the Together for Change opposition have a combined vote share of about 30%. The ruling Everybody’s Front has about 25%. President Alberto Fernández — no relation to his Veep — is not running for reelection.
The polling suggests that Milei has a good chance of a second-place finish in the Oct. 22 election, which could force a runoff between the top two finishers on Nov. 19. A runoff is required if the election’s winner fails to obtain at least 45% of the vote or 40% of the vote and at least a 10 percentage point lead over the second-place finisher.
What does Milei’s fame tell us about the state of Argentinian politics and the country today?
It reflects the failure of the political class to agree on basic policies to get the country moving again and end an economic crisis that has gone on for far too long. It also shows that, even though memories of the country’s 1976-83 military dictatorship remain fresh, Argentines are not immune to the appeal of far-right populism and politicians of dubious democratic credentials.
Is Milei an authoritarian?
He has made numerous comments that suggest he might not respect the rules of democracy were he to win the election. He has enthusiastically praised leaders such as Trump and Bolsonaro, who sought to undermine the rule of law in their countries, and has said he would resort to popular consultation mechanisms if congress were to reject his reform plans. When talking about Argentina’s golden era, he links its end to the election of Hipólito Yrigoyen as president in the country’s first free and fair vote in 1916. And though Milei condemns the recent military dictatorship, he disputes the official number of 30,000 people killed or kidnapped by the regime.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.