Last week, US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) became the latest American conservative to voice support for Somaliland, as he publicly urged the Trump administration to recognize it as a country.
“Somaliland remains committed to forging closer ties with the US and is actively engaged in enhancing military cooperation, counterterrorism efforts, and economy and trade partnerships,” Cruz wrote in a letter to the White House. “To do so to the greatest effect and the greatest benefit to American national security interests, it requires the status of a state.”
So why is Cruz interested in a small, de facto state on the east coast of Africa?
First, a refresher on Somaliland. Even if you didn’t know already, you may have guessed from the name that Somaliland is formally part of Somalia, sitting in the northern part of the country and bordering Djibouti and Ethiopia.
It was originally a British protectorate, while the rest of Somalia was an Italian one, but the areas were lumped together when Somalia gained independence in 1960. Thirty-one years later, Somaliland separatists helped to depose the Somali military leader Siad Barre, and they seized on the opportunity to declare independence.
The country, now with a population of roughly six million people, has been operating as an autonomous region ever since. In 2001, voters approved the constitution, establishing a democratic state. Though the functioning of the democracy isn’t perfect, opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi won last year’s election and there was a smooth transition of power – not everyone can say that, whether in East Africa or other parts of the world.
However, not a single country has formally recognized Somaliland as a state, drastically limiting what it can achieve financially – it is ineligible for loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, even though it is more economically and politically stable than Somalia.
So why is Cruz interested? First, Somaliland’s location gives it strategic importance. It lies along the Gulf of Aden, right next to the narrow Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly a third of the world’s shipping passes. It is also across the water from Yemen – if the US had a presence in Somaliland, it could keep a closer eye on the anti-American Houthi rebels who operate there.
“Somaliland has emerged as a critical security and diplomatic partner for the United States, helping America advance our national security interests in the Horn of Africa and beyond,” Cruz wrote in his letter.
But this is also about China, which Cruz references in his note. Somaliland’s location also puts it in close proximity to the growing Chinese military presence in Djibouti. What’s more, Somaliland’s own claims to independence mirror those of Taiwan, who have become an ally to the de jure nation – a top Taiwanese official attended Abdullahi’s inauguration in December. With China positioning itself as a defender of Somalia’s overall sovereignty of the area, Cruz – and many of his fellow Republicans – wants to be at the other end of that.
There’s just one problem. Somalia and its neighbors are littered with security issues, with extremist groups like Islamic State and al-Shabaab – both Houthi allies – sowing chaos in the region, and wars raging nearby in Sudan and Ethiopia. If the US recognizes Somaliland, it could undermine efforts to keep a lid on violence in the region.
There are two reasons for this. First, recognition could undermine the Somali state’s attempts to root out extremism – the government is already a weak one, and al-Shabaab would use such a move to recruit more foot soldiers, something the Biden administration feared.
Next, the US might find itself on the sidelines in terms of tackling extremism in the area. Washington has worked closely with Mogadishu to limit threats from militant groups, especially al-Shabaab. If it legally approves of Somaliland’s status as a country, it will anger Somalia – and potentially one or two other states – and potentially push Mogadishu to focus on issues outside of counterterrorism.
On top of all this, there is a melange of interests in the Horn of Africa from some Middle East & North Africa countries that the US won’t want to anger. In particular, Egypt is a major ally to Somalia, and Trump wouldn’t want to dismantle his relationship with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with whom he shares a close bond.
All to say: it won’t be such a “Cruz” in the park for the US to recognize Somaliland.
