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Members of the Hargeisa Basketball Girls team wrapped in the Somaliland flags walk on Road Number One during the Independence Day Eve celebrations in Hargeisa, Somaliland, on May 17, 2024.
Why does a US senator want to recognize Somaliland?
Last week, US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) became the latest American conservative to voice support for Somaliland, as he publicly urged the Trump administration to recognize it as a country.
“Somaliland remains committed to forging closer ties with the US and is actively engaged in enhancing military cooperation, counterterrorism efforts, and economy and trade partnerships,” Cruz wrote in a letter to the White House. “To do so to the greatest effect and the greatest benefit to American national security interests, it requires the status of a state.”
So why is Cruz interested in a small, de facto state on the east coast of Africa?
First, a refresher on Somaliland. Even if you didn’t know already, you may have guessed from the name that Somaliland is formally part of Somalia, sitting in the northern part of the country and bordering Djibouti and Ethiopia.
It was originally a British protectorate, while the rest of Somalia was an Italian one, but the areas were lumped together when Somalia gained independence in 1960. Thirty-one years later, Somaliland separatists helped to depose the Somali military leader Siad Barre, and they seized on the opportunity to declare independence.
The country, now with a population of roughly six million people, has been operating as an autonomous region ever since. In 2001, voters approved the constitution, establishing a democratic state. Though the functioning of the democracy isn’t perfect, opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi won last year’s election and there was a smooth transition of power – not everyone can say that, whether in East Africa or other parts of the world.
However, not a single country has formally recognized Somaliland as a state, drastically limiting what it can achieve financially – it is ineligible for loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, even though it is more economically and politically stable than Somalia.
So why is Cruz interested? First, Somaliland’s location gives it strategic importance. It lies along the Gulf of Aden, right next to the narrow Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly a third of the world’s shipping passes. It is also across the water from Yemen – if the US had a presence in Somaliland, it could keep a closer eye on the anti-American Houthi rebels who operate there.
“Somaliland has emerged as a critical security and diplomatic partner for the United States, helping America advance our national security interests in the Horn of Africa and beyond,” Cruz wrote in his letter.
But this is also about China, which Cruz references in his note. Somaliland’s location also puts it in close proximity to the growing Chinese military presence in Djibouti. What’s more, Somaliland’s own claims to independence mirror those of Taiwan, who have become an ally to the de jure nation – a top Taiwanese official attended Abdullahi’s inauguration in December. With China positioning itself as a defender of Somalia’s overall sovereignty of the area, Cruz – and many of his fellow Republicans – wants to be at the other end of that.
There’s just one problem. Somalia and its neighbors are littered with security issues, with extremist groups like Islamic State and al-Shabaab – both Houthi allies – sowing chaos in the region, and wars raging nearby in Sudan and Ethiopia. If the US recognizes Somaliland, it could undermine efforts to keep a lid on violence in the region.
There are two reasons for this. First, recognition could undermine the Somali state’s attempts to root out extremism – the government is already a weak one, and al-Shabaab would use such a move to recruit more foot soldiers, something the Biden administration feared.
Next, the US might find itself on the sidelines in terms of tackling extremism in the area. Washington has worked closely with Mogadishu to limit threats from militant groups, especially al-Shabaab. If it legally approves of Somaliland’s status as a country, it will anger Somalia – and potentially one or two other states – and potentially push Mogadishu to focus on issues outside of counterterrorism.
On top of all this, there is a melange of interests in the Horn of Africa from some Middle East & North Africa countries that the US won’t want to anger. In particular, Egypt is a major ally to Somalia, and Trump wouldn’t want to dismantle his relationship with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with whom he shares a close bond.
All to say: it won’t be such a “Cruz” in the park for the US to recognize Somaliland.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan poses with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed following a press conference in Ankara, Turkey, December 11, 2024.
Turkey mediates key agreement to defuse Ethiopia-Somalia conflict
Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced a critical agreement to end a yearlong dispute over Ethiopia’s access to the Arabian Sea. The leaders announced the deal in Ankara after marathon talks mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is increasingly emerging as a key player in the Horn of Africa.
What’s the conflict all about? Ethiopia has been the most populous landlocked country in the world since Eritrea broke away in 1993, and the lack of a major seaport has held back development. In January, Ethiopia signed a deal to lease a port from a breakaway region in Somalia, Somaliland, in exchange for recognizing its independence. In response, Somalia threatened to expel Ethiopian troops that are in the country to fight al-Shabab terrorists, and some feared the conflict could escalate into an echo of the devastating 1977-78 Ogaden War.
Why is Turkey involved? Ankara has deep ties to both sides in the conflict and an abiding interest in keeping the peace between them. Turkey’s largest overseas military base is in Somalia, where Turkish troops have trained thousands of their Somali peers. Turkey also backed the Ethiopian government during the 2020-22 Tigray war by providing feared Bayraktar drones.
“The agreement will help make Turkey into an even more relevant power in the region, with Ankara pitching itself as a security partner for African countries,” says Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
Turkish businesses have invested over $2 billion in Ethiopia as well, a figure surpassed only by China.
“Aside from expanding its diplomatic and political clout in Africa, the deal will also help Turkey build more commercial inroads in the region,” says Peker. “Ethiopian access to Somali ports could facilitate more trade, and Turkish businesses will benefit from potential preferential treatment on marquee infrastructure projects.”
What now? Representatives will meet again in February for “technical talks” that are meant to hammer out the details of port access.Oil tanker SCF Primorye, owned by Russian state shipping company Sovcomflot, transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, April 29, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Russia’s oil slump, South Africa mine rescue, Somaliland opposition wins election, Japan buys out workers
3.28 million: Russian exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.28 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to Nov. 17, with shipments from western ports mostly serving Turkey and India falling by nearly 30%. Russia has been trying to restrict flows of oil in coordination with OPEC standards to buoy prices and has pledged further production cuts between March and September of next year.
350: South African authorities are mulling whether to try rescuing at least 350 illegal miners who are hiding in underground shafts at the Stilfontein mine to the southwest of Johannesburg. The miners have remained underground to avoid arrest amid a crackdown on artisanal mining, which is often controlled by gangs. A court order on Monday instructed police to allow those within the mine to leave. Locals say there may be as many as 4,000 miners in the shaft, and authorities are not sure it is safe to send a mission. Some miners have emerged looking frail and malnourished.
63.92: The opposition leader of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahu — better known as “Irro” — won the presidency of the quasi-independent state with 63.92% of the vote, a clear mandate over incumbent Muse Bihi. Irro is promising to boost economic opportunities in Somaliland, especially for women, and hopes to persuade incoming US President Donald Trump to recognize his government independently of Somalia.
9,219: Over four dozen of Japan’s largest companies have paid out 9,219 employees with early retirement and voluntary severance in 2024, roughly triple last year’s numbers. Japanese corporations are historically very reluctant to fire workers, but the yen’s weakness and sluggish growth are forcing companies to streamline with buyouts.FILE PHOTO: Somali supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan hold Turkey's flag during celebrations after the second round of the presidential election, in Mogadishu, Somalia May 29, 2023.
Somalia signs defense pact with Turkey amid tensions with Ethiopia
Turkey confirmed Thursday that it has signed a defense agreement with Somalia. The deal commits Ankara to defending Somali waters and to helping Mogadishu build up its navy against “foreign interference” – a veiled reference to rising tensions with Ethiopia.
Last month, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway state of Somaliland allowing Ethiopia to utilize the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, so securing sea access is vital, but Mogadishu says the deal is an unacceptable violation of its sovereignty.
Could it come to war? The United States is certainly concerned, with Washington’s top Africa diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee, shuttling between meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and telling reporters “the region can ill-afford more conflict.” The European and African Unions, the Arab League, and Egypt are all echoing US and Turkish calls for Somali sovereignty to be respected.
But we’ve got our eye on the United Arab Emirates, which previously facilitated ties between Ethiopia and Somaliland and could lean on its growing military influence in the Horn of Africa to sway the course of events – particularly with African Union troops set to pull out of Somalia this year.