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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan poses with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed following a press conference in Ankara, Turkey, December 11, 2024.
Turkey mediates key agreement to defuse Ethiopia-Somalia conflict
Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced a critical agreement to end a yearlong dispute over Ethiopia’s access to the Arabian Sea. The leaders announced the deal in Ankara after marathon talks mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whois increasingly emerging as a key player in the Horn of Africa.
What’s the conflict all about? Ethiopia has been the most populous landlocked country in the world since Eritrea broke away in 1993, and the lack of a major seaport has held back development. In January, Ethiopia signed a deal to lease a port from a breakaway region in Somalia, Somaliland, in exchange for recognizing its independence. In response, Somalia threatened to expel Ethiopian troops that are in the country to fight al-Shabab terrorists, and some feared the conflict could escalate into an echo of the devastating 1977-78 Ogaden War.
Why is Turkey involved? Ankara has deep ties to both sides in the conflict and an abiding interest in keeping the peace between them. Turkey’s largest overseas military base is in Somalia, where Turkish troops have trained thousands of their Somali peers. Turkey also backed the Ethiopian government during the 2020-22 Tigray war by providing feared Bayraktar drones.
“The agreement will help make Turkey into an even more relevant power in the region, with Ankara pitching itself as a security partner for African countries,” says Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
Turkish businesses have invested over $2 billion in Ethiopia as well, a figure surpassed only by China.
“Aside from expanding its diplomatic and political clout in Africa, the deal will also help Turkey build more commercial inroads in the region,” says Peker. “Ethiopian access to Somali ports could facilitate more trade, and Turkish businesses will benefit from potential preferential treatment on marquee infrastructure projects.”
What now? Representatives will meet again in February for “technical talks” that are meant to hammer out the details of port access.Performers at the Paris 2024 Paralympics opening ceremony on Aug. 28, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Paralympic Games open in Paris, Slovaks re-up their air defenses, Ethiopia’s electrifying news, Mexico’s coalition close to supermajority
6: Slovakia is going to buy six mobile air defense systems from Israel in a deal worth about $600 million. The systems will replace ones that were sent by the previous Slovak government to neighboring Ukraine. The current government has clashed with its NATO allies over the wisdom of supporting Kyiv but has stressed the importance of defensive strength within the alliance.
1,550: Dam, that’s a lot of electricity. Ethiopia says that the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which straddles the Blue Nile and has stoked severe tensions with downstream neighbors Egypt and Sudan, is now generating 1,550 megawatts of power, nearly double the output when it first opened in 2022. Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, sees the dam as the cornerstone of its long-term economic development.
1: Mexico’s ruling coalition is now just one seat shy of a supermajority in the Senate after two opposition lawmakers joined the Morena-led coalition of outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and his incoming successor, Claudia Sheinbaum. A supermajority, or two-thirds control, would permit changes to the constitution, no small issue as the incoming Congress takes up a controversial judicial overhaul that would see the direct election of all justices.
Lots of foreign traveler are seen at Fushimi Inari-taisha Shrine in Kyoto City, Kyoto Prefecture on April 20, 2023. The number of tourists coming to Japan is increasing as the pandemic of new coronavirus COVID-19 has calmed down.
Hard Numbers: Foreign travel to Japan surges, Ethiopian diplomat expelled, Safari turns deadly, ABBA’s winning ‘Waterloo’
89: Japan’s weak yen is leading to a tourism surge, with foreign visitors jumping a whopping 89% in February — to 2.78 million people — compared to a year ago. Hotels, in turn, are fuller, and the day rates for stays are up roughly 25% since last year.
72: Ethiopia's ambassador has 72 hours to leave Somalia amid a spat over Ethiopian plans to build a naval base in the de facto autonomous region of Somaliland. Mogadishu is also closing two Ethiopian consulates and pulling its ambassador from Addis Ababa. Tensions between the two countries boiled over when Ethiopia offered possible recognition of Somaliland as part of the port deal, which Somalia sees as a move to annex part of Somalia to Ethiopia.
1: An 80-year-old American woman died while on a safari in Zambia this past weekend after a bull elephant charged at the vehicle she was in, flipping it. The tour company says the truck was blocked by the terrain and couldn’t get away from the agitated pachyderm. Last month, a similar attack took place in South Africa when a bull elephant lifted a 22-seat safari truck several times before letting it drop. There were no deaths reported in that incident.
50: It’s been 50 years to the day since ABBA won their first Eurovision song contest with “Waterloo.” Semifinal rounds for this year’s contest kick off next month, and, despite the competition's goal of staying apolitical, controversy over Israel's participation is already front and center.Smoke rises after what the Iranian media said was an Israeli strike on a building close to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria April 1, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Aid group pauses Gaza operations, South Africa’s water crisis, Chinese manufacturing growth, New British Museum probe, Japan’s royal Insta debut
½: About half of Johannesburg’s 5.5 million residents have suffered water shortages, or even full outages, over the past several weeks. This is a major political problem for the African National Congress, which has led South Africa’s government since the end of apartheid in 1994 and now faces a national election next month.
6: Chinese manufacturing activity grew in March for the first time in six months. News of a possible economic upturn will be welcomed by many around the world because China’s weakness has been a major drag on global economic expectations in recent months.
11: A nonprofit information watchdog says the British Museum should return 11 sacred Ethiopian altar tablets looted by British soldiers following the Battle of Maqdala in 1868. Over more than 150 years in the museum’s collection, the wood and stone tablets have never been displayed publicly, and internal debates over their future have remained secret. For more on the debate about “Who Owns Art?”, see our recent GZERO Reports piece, which begins with an Egyptian obelisk in a snowstorm.
FILE PHOTO: Somali supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan hold Turkey's flag during celebrations after the second round of the presidential election, in Mogadishu, Somalia May 29, 2023.
Somalia signs defense pact with Turkey amid tensions with Ethiopia
Turkey confirmed Thursday that it has signed a defense agreement with Somalia. The deal commits Ankara to defending Somali waters and to helping Mogadishu build up its navy against “foreign interference” – a veiled reference to rising tensions with Ethiopia.
Last month, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway state of Somaliland allowing Ethiopia to utilize the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, so securing sea access is vital, but Mogadishu says the deal is an unacceptable violation of its sovereignty.
Could it come to war? The United States is certainly concerned, with Washington’s top Africa diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee, shuttling between meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and telling reporters “the region can ill-afford more conflict.” The European and African Unions, the Arab League, and Egypt are all echoing US and Turkish calls for Somali sovereignty to be respected.
But we’ve got our eye on the United Arab Emirates, which previously facilitated ties between Ethiopia and Somaliland and could lean on its growing military influence in the Horn of Africa to sway the course of events – particularly with African Union troops set to pull out of Somalia this year.An Ethiopian family in search of food from fleeing remote villages where wells have dried up due to drought arrives in Korom, northeast Ethiopia.
Hard Numbers: Ethiopia is starving, US allies killed, Earth’s near miss, Paris parking drama, Myorkas impeachment vote
3,000,000: At least three million Ethiopians are at acute risk of hunger in the north of the country, where the federal government and ethnic Tigrayan separatists fought a grinding war from 2020 to 2022. The UK government says it is setting aside £100 million ($125.4 million) to aid people at risk of starvation in the region.
6: A drone attack early Monday killed six Kurdish fighters allied to the US on a military base housing US troops in Syria. No US deaths or injuries were reported, and the Biden administration says it will continue to target Iranian proxies in the region.
1,700,000: Did you feel that impending sense of doom over the weekend? It wasn’t (only) the Sunday Scaries. A skyscraper-sized meteorite is hurtling toward Earth and will come within just 1.7 million miles of our little blue marble on Friday. Scientists say we’ll be fine … but the asteroid is swinging back around in 2032.
18: The good people of Paris have voted to triple parking fees for SUVs, which will now run you €18 ($19.50) an hour in the city center and €12 further out. Mayor Anne Hidalgo celebrated the measure as an environmentalist victory – but at least one woman in the fashionable 8th arrondissement told Voice of America she’s sick of the mayor’s “diktats.”
2: The House will vote on whether to impeach Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, on charges that he has willfully refused to enforce border laws and breached the public trust. The vote marks an escalation of Republicans’ efforts to attack President Joe Biden and Democrats over immigration. Because of the GOP's thin majority, they can only afford to lose 2 lawmakers, but If they succeed, Mayorkas would become the only sitting cabinet member to be impeached in American history.
Somali people march against the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal at the Yarisow stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia January 3, 2024.
Somaliland shakes up the Horn of Africa
Ethiopia and Somalia’s relationship is in free fall, and Addis Ababa is taking steps toward recognizing Somaliland – a breakaway de facto country Somalia considers its own – in exchange for access to the Red Sea. Somalia has deemed the agreement illegal, but that is unlikely to deter landlocked Ethiopia, which is militarily dominant and desperate for port access.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been calling for sea access for months. After initially pressuring neighboring Eritrea, it realized it had more leverage over Somaliland, which granted it access to the UAE-developed Port of Berbera in exchange for a vague promise of eventual recognition and a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. Ahmed hopes the port partnership may help Ethiopia's dwindling economy, which he blames on its lack of ports.
Somaliland is divided on the deal. While it promises international recognition and economic gains, it has triggered protests across Somaliland over fear that it compromises their sovereignty. The defense minister resigned because the agreement grants Ethiopia permission to develop a naval base and station troops on the coast.
For Somalia, which lost control of Somaliland in 1991, Ethiopia’s recognition is opening a door that could greatly weaken the government if more countries follow suit.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has called on his nation’s youth to prepare to defend the country, “by all means necessary.” But Ethiopia’s military is a goliath compared to Somalia’s, and right now Mogadishu appears to be seeking international diplomatic support, not head-to-head conflict.
Hundreds of Muslim activists gather to protest in solidarity in the wake of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip outside the US embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 20, 2023
Hard Numbers: Malaysia backs Hamas, Democrats win key races, fighting in Ethiopia's Amhara region, South Africa’s highway terror, Europe invests in space
77 billion: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim jeopardized his country’s $77 billion trade relationship with the United States this week by coming out hard in support of Hamas, with which Malaysia has long maintained ties. Anwar, who compared the group to Nelson Mandela, could run afoul of the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act and invite US sanctions on his country — but the rise of the Islamist PAS party and the fragility of his multi-ethnic coalition are pushing him to appeal to such sentiment despite his reputation as a liberal reformer.
3: Democrats won three major off-cycle elections in the US last night, taking the Kentucky governorship, keeping the Virginia state senate, and winning a ballot measure in Ohio to protect abortion rights. The wins come despite weak poll numbers for President Joe Biden, and seem to reinforce the view that GOP overreach on abortion helps turn Democrats out on voting day. For more on the long term consequences, read Eurasia Group expert Kylie Milliken's take.
3,000: Fighting between federal troops and local militias in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has displaced 3,000 people in recent months, according to the Ethiopia Human Rights Commission. From 2020-2022, Amharan troops helped the government to put down a rebellion by militants in the Tigray region, but since then they have refused orders to integrate with national security forces. As a result, government forces have begun cracking down on people suspected of supporting the Amharan militias.
280,000: South Africans suffered 280,000 carjackings between April 2022 and March 2023 (the latest period for which statistics are available) amid an epidemic of violent crime on the roadways that recently ensnared the country’s transport minister. More shocking: The figure for 2021/22 was even higher, with carjackings totaling 330,000.
340 million: France, Germany, and Italy agreed to jointly put up €340 million ($365 million) annually for European space exploration company Arianespace to launch its Ariane 6 rocket at least four times per year and another lighter launcher at least three times. The investment is intended to make Europe’s space sector more competitive with American firms like SpaceX.