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A police officer gets his shoes shined as he and fellow officers stand outside the prosecutor's office before the arrival of Peru's President Dina Boluarte, in Lima, Peru March 7, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Peru declares crime emergency, EU cuts Somalia aid, Chinese weddings dwindle, McCarthy tests his majority, oil prices surge
160,200: Peruvian President Dina Boluarte declared a state of emergency in two districts of the capital, Lima, and one in the northern city of Talara amid a devastating wave of violent crime. Lima police collected 160,200 crime reports last year, up 33% from 2021, part of a larger spike in violence in South America.
7 million: The European Union has suspended funding for the World Food Program’s operations in Somalia, which last year amounted to over $7 million, after a United Nations investigation discovered widespread theft by local power brokers, armed groups, and even aid workers themselves. The graft has macabre costs: Somalia barely avoided a famine last year amid a drought that killed 43,000 people — half of them children under 5.
6.8 million: Love is decidedly not in the air in China, as the country registered just 6.8 million weddings in 2022, a drop of some 800,000 compared to 2021 and the lowest figure on record. Meanwhile, even those who are tying the knot are more hesitant to have children, a factor contributing to China’s first population decline in 60 years, and a major long term headache for policy planners in Beijing.
4: US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is gambling that he can push through a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, despite fierce blowback from within his own GOP caucus. His margin is slim: he can afford to lose just only 4 GOP votes if he wants the measure to pass.
95: The price of oil hit $95 dollars per barrel, climbing some 26% for the quarter as Saudi Arabia and Russia have cut production to boost prices. Higher oil prices are likely to prop up inflation, complicating matters not only for households, but also for central bankers who had been hoping to ease off of interest rate hikes sooner than later.
Internally displaced Somali women stand in a queue waiting for relief food to be served south of Mogadishu, September 5, 2011.
Famine looms in Somalia
The effects of the global food crisis have hit some parts of the globe harder than others. Prone to drought and largely reliant on food imports, the Horn of Africa is reeling, and Somalia, in particular, is facing an acute crisis.
The UN warned this week that “famine is at the door” of the 17 million-strong country, cautioning that several provinces in the southern Bay region could be in the throes of a deadly famine by the end of the year.
Somalia’s current predicament is a cautionary tale for other East African states that have also been pummeled in recent decades by extreme weather events and social and political instability.
First, what constitutes famine?
The UN, in conjunction with national governments, will give a famine designation when 20% of households in a given area are facing an extreme lack of food – and if 30% of children in those areas suffer from acute malnutrition. Technically, it means two adults or four children out of every 10,000 people are dying daily. Parts of Somalia could reach these grim milestones as early as next month, the UN says, with more than 850,000 Somalis living in affected areas.
How did Somalia get here?
Drought and climate change. Somalia has long been prone to drought as a result of arid conditions and irregular rainfall that also affects the wider Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia and Kenya. The problem has been exacerbated by climate change, which has led to more prolonged dry spells that have decimated livestock and water supplies and pummeled the agriculture trade.
The collapse in domestic food crops in Somalia – and surging demand as a result of urbanization – has led to a massive increase in food imports over the past three decades. In 2015, agriculture imports in Somalia rose 18 times to $1.5 billion, up from $82 million in the late 1980s. Indeed, this reliance on outside food sources has made the country increasingly vulnerable to global economic shocks and rising food prices. What’s more, government ineptitude and corruption led to vast underinvestment in the agriculture sector, which in 2018 accounted for 75% of Somalia’s total gross domestic product.
But would an official famine designation drive up foreign funding? Eurasia Group Africa analyst Connor Vasey says that is unlikely.
"The UN designation is important – it provides a bigger platform for the food security issue and increases the perceived urgency – but it comes at a time where other serious crises are still unfolding," Vasey says, adding that "many of the big financial players are primarily concerned with what is going on in the western hemisphere, which is not encouraging."
The Russia-Ukraine factor. Before the war in Ukraine, Somalia imported 90% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe. As Ukrainian supplies have been choked off by a Russian blockade at its Black Sea ports, Mogadishu has been forced to compete for limited global supplies with other major wheat importers (like Turkey and Egypt) that have deeper pockets.
Conflict. Thirty years since Somalia’s brutal civil war ended, the country is still rife with violence and mired in sectarian conflict.
Al-Shabab, the terror group affiliated with al-Qaida, has wreaked havoc throughout Somalia – and the region – since 2006, targeting civilians in deadly suicide bombings as part of its anti-government insurgency. The group also controls large swaths of territory, particularly in southern and central Somalia, and has often targeted UN aid workers, which has made it difficult to get food aid to those who need it.
In recent years, some aid organizations have balked at having to negotiate with – and pay off – al-Shabab militants to deliver food aid, while other groups say it’s too dangerous to send their staff into such volatile areas. Indeed, the UN World Food Programme has previously suspended its operations in southern Somalia because of an uptick in Islamist violence.
"Access issues are major hindrance to the deployment of humanitarian assistance," Vasey says.
"On the one hand this is created by al-Shabaab itself and its activities, but it is further complicated by the efforts of pro-government forces (and others) to neutralize al-Shabaab. Recent rhetoric from the government suggests an increase in the latter issue, with hard-to-reach areas becoming, well, harder to reach."
Moreover, aid organizations and foreign governments are fearful of running afoul of US laws preventing the financing of terror organizations. (Washington in 2008 designated al-Shabab a Foreign Terrorist Organization, which prohibits “economic transactions” with the group.) Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre recently tapped a former high-ranking al-Shabab militant to serve in his cabinet in hopes of healing internal strife, but al-Shabab violence remains rampant.
A perfect storm. With the UN General Assembly set to kick off next week, followed in November by the UN’s Climate Change Conference in Cairo, many politicians will use the UN podium to draw attention to the geopolitics of climate change and the inequities of the related food crisis. (Pakistan, for its part, is still reeling from deadly floods that have killed more than 1,300 people, while India recently experienced a once-in-a-generation heatwave.)
Meanwhile, parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and elsewhere, are also facing acute food shortages, raising fears of famine, according to the WFP.
Somalia is at the frontline of the current food calamity. But sadly, many countries appear to be destined for a similar fate.
Somalia appoints former al Shabaab spokesperson as minister in Mogadishu
What We're Watching: Somalia's new cabinet, takeaways from US primaries, Peru's president in peril
Somalia appoints former al-Shabab militant to cabinet
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has named former al-Shabab spokesperson, Muktar Robow, as Somalia’s minister for endowment and religious affairs. A veteran of the Afghan war, who was training with al-Qaida in Afghanistan during 9/11, Robow helped found al-Shabab, which is fighting to overthrow the Somali government in a bid to invoke a strict interpretation of Sharia law. The militants have killed tens of thousands since 2007, and they’ve recently been involved in cross-border attacks in Ethiopia. Robow (aka Abu Mansour), who once had a $5 million bounty on his head, broke from the al-Qaida-linked militants back in 2017. Arrested by Somali authorities in 2018 to prevent him from running for office, Robow had been under house arrest in Mogadishu until last year, when he was taken back into custody. This week, he was released just before his new role was announced. As the new face of Somalia’s war against al-Shabab, Robow is tasked with helming the ideological battle against the terrorists. Some believe this will strengthen the government’s hand against al-Shabab, but critics fear it could lead to sectarian violence.
Key takeaways from US primaries
Five US states – Arizona, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, and Kansas – held primaries on Tuesday, giving an indication of the public mood in parts of the country just 12 weeks out from midterm elections. So, what happened? Trump-aligned candidates did pretty well. In Michigan, Rep. Peter Meijer – a freshman and one of just a handful of Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump – was defeated by an extreme pro-Trumper who has spread conspiracy theories (read lies) that Dems engaged in satanic rituals. In Arizona’s nail-biter GOP gubernatorial primary, Keri Lake, a Trump-backed TV presenter who propagates the former president’s lies about election fraud, was polling ahead of her rival with more than 80% of ballots counted. A slate of other Trump-aligned candidates also won primaries throughout the Grand Canyon state. Some Democrats will be happy with these outcomes, believing that far-right candidates will be easier to beat in battleground states this fall, but others have been critical of the strategy. Meanwhile, in Kansas, abortion-rights supporters were celebrating after 59% of voters rejected an amendment to the State Constitution to allow the state to regulate – or ban – abortion. High turnout in the Sunflower State suggests that abortion rights could indeed be an energizing issue for Democrats this fall.
Peru’s president in peril
Amid widening criminal investigations centered on President Pedro Castillo, Prime Minister Anibal Torres quit on Wednesday. Torres, a longtime Castillo ally, said he just wanted to go back to a quiet life of “legal research.” The resignation is the latest crumble of the cookie for Castillo, an upstart leftwing populist who stunned the country by winning the presidency last year, but who has been beset by scandals, missteps, and a fractious Congress since taking office. He is currently under investigation for alleged treason and for running a criminal enterprise from the presidential palace. Small wonder that his approval rating has plunged to below 20%, and our friends at Eurasia Group say it’s “only a matter of time” before lawmakers force him out. If this sounds topsy turvy, it is, but it’s also not unusual for Peru, where political parties are plentiful but weak, and presidents rarely have solid majorities in the legislature. The country went through a period in 2020 where there were three different presidents in the space of a month.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman fist bumps US President Joe Biden in Jeddah.
What We're Watching: Biden-MBS fist bump, Xi in Xinjiang, Kenya-Somalia thaw
Biden’s Saudi trip fallout
Engagement with would-be pariahs may cost you politically, but it's necessary for the national interest. Over the weekend, US President Joe Biden got panned — mostly by fellow Democrats — for fist-bumping with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, during Biden's controversial Middle East trip. (The CIA believes MBS ordered the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Kashoggi.) Still, the White House said the president returned from the region with some important agreements, such as progress on ending the war in Yemen or making a joint pledge with Israel to stop Iran from getting nukes. But did he really achieve much else? Riyadh announced that it'll increase oil production, but not enough to tame rising gas prices and inflation in America before the November midterms. The Saudis are also nowhere near joining the Abraham Accords, and peace between Israel and the Palestinians remains as elusive as it was under Biden's predecessors. So, why go at all then? The short answer is: as long as the US wants to continue being a player in the Middle East, you simply can't afford to ignore the Saudis, or MBS himself.
Xi Jinping "inspects" Xinjiang
China's President Xi Jinping wrapped up a surprise visit to Xinjiang on Friday, his first in eight years, in a bid to demonstrate national unity in a region where Beijing has been accused of systematically violating the human rights of the Uyghur ethnic minority. Xi reaffirmed his commitment "to the correct and Chinese way to address ethnic issues" in Xinjiang. Although the one million Uyghurs who human rights groups say China has put in internment camps there may beg to differ, Xi clearly has no intention of changing tack in Xinjiang. Still, the visit is relevant for two reasons. First, it had been two weeks since Xi was seen in public following his trip to Hong Kong – his first trip outside mainland China since 2019 – to mark the 25th anniversary of the city’s handover (rumors swirled about him possibly catching COVID from a lawmaker who tested positive after meeting Xi there). Second, Xi seems to be making a big splash to show off his accomplishments in China's most restive regions as he prepares to secure a norm-defying third term as head of the ruling Communist Party in November. Will Tibet be his next destination?
Kenya and Somalia patching things up
Frenemy neighbors Kenya and Somalia took a big step toward warmer ties on Friday, by signing a slew of cooperation deals during Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's first visit to Nairobi since being elected in May. Mohamud and Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta agreed to reopen the border, resume flights between the two countries, and lift a ban on trading khat, a mild stimulant that’s one of Somalia’s few exports. The two sides have been at odds for years over a bunch of issues. Kenya complains that Somalia doesn't do enough to stop al-Shabab militants from carrying out deadly attacks across the border, and has threatened to shut down Somali refugee camps in response. For their part, the Somalis resent Kenya for hosting the leader of Somaliland, a breakaway region whose independence is not recognized by Mogadishu. The relationship further deteriorated last October, when the UN's top court ruled in favor of Somalia in its long-running maritime border dispute with Kenya over an Indian Ocean triangle region presumably rich in offshore oil and natural gas. Still, the current déténte could be scrapped by whoever wins the presidential election to replace the outgoing Kenyatta on Aug. 9.Pro-Trump rioters storm the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Jan 6. hearings begin, Beijing’s Zero bet & Somalia famine warning
House holds first public Jan. 6 hearing in prime time
The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol held its first public hearing on Thursday night, with most news channels airing it in prime time (notably not Fox News). Viewers were shown graphic, never-before-seen footage to demonstrate how, as Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) said, former President Donald Trump “lit the flame of this attack.” The hearing aired revelatory clips of testimony from former US Attorney General William Barr, who told Trump that claims about a stolen election were “bullshit,” and from Trump's daughter Ivanka, who said she’d accepted Barr’s perspective. And some participants in the attack testified that they were on hand because Trump had asked them to be there in Washington, DC, on that day. Will the hearings change hearts or minds? Unlikely in such a polarized environment, but Eurasia Group’s lead US analyst Jon Lieber says Democrats hope the hearings will help keep the focus on Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections, which are slated to be a washout for Democrats. Republicans, for their part, would rather make midterms a referendum on President Joe Biden and kitchen-table issues like inflation. The hearings — a culmination of one of the Justice Department’s largest-ever FBI investigations, which has led to more than 800 arrests across nearly all 50 states — will continue next week.
China doubles down on Zero
Beijing has reportedly ordered regional and city governments to begin building additional hospitals and COVID-19 quarantine facilities. Experts say the decision shows China is furthering its commitment to zero-COVID, despite the massive social and economic disruptions the policy entails. In Shanghai, residents were largely trapped in their homes for more than two months. Although the government declared victory against the virus and lifted restrictions there earlier this month, sections of the city have already been ordered to resume lockdowns and mass testing again. Public health experts doubt the policy can be maintained successfully, given the transmissibility of the omicron-related variants. But low vaccination rates among the elderly, questions about vaccine efficacy, and a political attachment to proving that zero-COVID can work have compelled President Xi Jinping to double down on the policy, particularly as he heads for “re-election” at a Party Congress this fall.
Somalia’s new president issues dire warning
Somalia’s newly tapped President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was inaugurated on Thursday, and his message to the international community was clear: help us stave off a dire famine. East Africa has long been plagued by a terrible drought that's decimated crops, and Mohamud’s plea comes as the United Nations warned this week that more than 200,000 Somalis are on the brink of starvation. Indeed, Mohamud – a former academic who served as president from 2012-2017 – says he will foster “political stability” in the notoriously volatile country. He has his work cut out for him: Al-Shabab, a jihadist militant group linked to al-Qaida, has long wreaked havoc there, including during the recent vote, and controls swaths of the country. The deteriorating security situation recently prompted the Biden administration to return US troops to Somalia two years after then-President Donald Trump withdrew nearly all of the 700 US troops stationed there.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article stated that vaccination rates in China are low. In fact, it is the vaccination rate among China's elderly that is low -- fewer than half of Chinese over 70 are fully vaccinated and boosted.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during their meeting in Budapest.
What We're Watching: Hungarian holdout, hope in Shanghai, US troops return to Somalia
Is Hungary holding the EU “hostage”?
The European Commission is pushing hard for a bloc-wide ban on Russian oil imports. But one member state — Hungary — has gone rogue and is holding up the embargo. At a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday, Lithuania’s representative accused Hungary of holding the bloc “hostage,” after PM Viktor Orbán demanded that Brussels dole out hundreds of millions of dollars to offset losses from moving away from cheap Russian fossil fuels. Orbán is buddies with Vladimir Putin and has been trying to expand Hungary’s economic relationship with the Kremlin in recent months, so he is driving a hard bargain, saying that ditching Russian oil would be an “atomic bomb” for his country’s economy. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russia for around 45% of its total oil imports, and finding alternative sources could lead to shortages and price hikes at a time when Hungarians are already grappling with sky-high inflation. Still, Brussels says Budapest is being greedy because Hungary has already been given a longer window — until the end of 2024 — to phase out Russian imports. But Orbán is hoping to get more concessions ahead of a big EU summit on May 30, when the bloc aims to find a political solution to this stalemate.
Shanghai’s June bloom
Officials in China’s most populous city say they are planning for life to return to normal by June 1 following a draconian COVID lockdown that has kept most of Shanghai’s 26 million residents cooped up since early April. China’s zero-COVID policy, which imposes harsh restrictions in response to even the smallest outbreaks of the virus, has wreaked havoc not only on the lives of tens of millions of people in Shanghai and other Chinese cities but on global supply chains too. When the world’s second-largest economy buys and makes fewer things, the world quickly feels it. Public health experts, including the head of the World Health Organization, have said that zero-COVID is unsustainable due to the high transmissibility of omicron, but Beijing remains unmoved. Given the low vaccination rates among China’s elderly (and most vulnerable) population and questions about the efficacy of Chinese-made jabs more broadly, researchers warn that if omicron were left to spread freely in China, more than 1 million people could die in the coming months. That’s something that Xi Jinping seems keen to avoid ahead of this fall’s 20th Party Congress, where he’s aiming to be re-“elected” to an unprecedented third term as party boss and president. Will Shanghai soon find a way out of lockdown, and will the city become a model for other Chinese urban centers looking to get back to normal?
US troops return to Somalia
The Biden administration has approved a Pentagon request to redeploy US troops to conflict-ridden Somalia. This comes less than two years after the Trump administration withdrew almost all 700 US ground troops from the East African nation as part of a broader effort to pull back from “forever wars” in faraway places. Fewer than 500 troops will be stationed in Somalia, according to the US Department of Defense, which says that since Trump’s pullback, al-Shabab — a militant group loosely aligned with al-Qaida — has expanded its reach across the country. As part of Washington’s new counterterrorism mission, President Joe Biden has also reportedly authorized the targeting of al-Shabab leaders. It remains unclear, however, whether this will allow the US military to conduct airstrikes inside Somalia. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia’s newly tapped president, welcomed the US’ return, but many Americans who supported Biden’s pledge to end US involvement in foreign conflicts might not feel the same way, particularly given the symbolism associated with the previous (and disastrous) US presence in Somalia.Kalush Orchestra from Ukraine appear on stage after winning the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest in Turin, Italy.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine wins Eurovision, Somalia’s new prez, Venezuela woos investors, CDU victory
439: Ukraine won the popular Eurovision Song Contest in Italy thanks to a late surge of 439 fan votes from across the continent early Sunday. President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated the winner, vowing to hold next year's edition in the besieged city of Mariupol.
3: Somali lawmakers (finally!) elected Sunday a new president after three rounds of indirect voting, conducted in a Mogadishu airport hangar. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a former president who lost re-election in 2017, will get his old job back.
10: Venezuela plans to offer private investors stakes of up to 10% in multiple state-run companies that Caracas nationalized years ago in the name of socialism. With its economy still a shambles and under crippling US sanctions, the Maduro regime is desperate to attract foreign investment.
35.7: In a major upset for the ruling SPD party, the opposition CDU won 35.7% of the vote in Sunday's election in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state. Good news for the CDU, which governed the country for 16 years under former Chancellor Angela Merkel until it lost the 2021 federal election.El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele present the plan of "Bitcoin City."
What We’re Watching: Bukele’s crypto bomb, Somalia needs a president
Has El Salavdor’s crypto experiment bombed?
Mass protests erupted last fall after Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s youthful, tech-savvy president with an authoritarian streak, announced that the country would begin accepting Bitcoin as legal tender. Many Salvadorans said Bukele’s embrace of the volatile currency would spur inflation and financial instability. Those warnings have proven prescient. In recent days, the crypto world has been caught in a tailspin, in part because global inflation has lowered investors’ tolerance for risk. Bitcoin and Etherium, the biggest cryptocurrencies, have both declined in value by 20-25% this week – and El Salvador is recording losses of about 37% based on what it forked out for crypto in a series of purchases. This has proven to be a disaster for Bukele: two major credit rating agencies predict El Salavdor will default on its loans. San Salvador has an IMF repayment due in January worth a whopping $800 million, and amid ongoing negotiations earlier this year the international lender warned that “Bitcoin should not be used as an official currency with legal tender status.” Still, the enigmatic Bukele continues to double down: this week, he released plans for the Bitcoin city he touted last fall – a smart city based on the use of the flailing currency.