We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Tracy Moran
Donald Trump supporters in Huntington Beach, Calif., on July 14, 2024.
While Day Two of the RNC focused on “Making America Safer Once Again,” reports surfaced Tuesday that US authorities had received intelligence in recent weeks about an Iranian plot to kill former President Donald Trump.
The warning reportedly led to increased security for Trump, raising even more alarm and questions over the security breach by would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks last Saturday. Officials said no link has been found between Crooks and a foreign plot.
The Trump campaign would not comment on what it knew before Saturday. But the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the UN had plenty to say: It denied the allegations, noting that while Trump is a criminal in Tehran’s mind “and must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law for ordering the assassination of General Soleimani,” Iran is pursuing only legal recourse.
NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watsonsaid the US has “been tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for years, dating back to the last administration.” She said the threats emanate from Tehran’s desire for revenge over the US drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, who was Iran’s top general, which Trump ordered in January 2020.
Former President Donald Trump, with his face bloodied by a shot that hit his right ear, raises his fist as he's rushed from a rally stage in Butler, PA.
What happened: Shots rang out at a rally for Donald Trump on Saturday in Butler, PA. The former president – who was speaking at the podium – dropped to the ground and was surrounded by the Secret Service before standing with what appeared to be blood dripping from the right side of his face. He then pumped his fist into the air and was whisked away by his guards.
The Secret Service issued a statement Saturday evening indicating that the shooter aimed from atop a nearby rooftop and was “neutralized,” and that one spectator was killed while another two were critically injured. The FBI has identified the suspected shooter as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old registered Republican from Bethel Park, PA.
A few hours after being rushed from the scene, Trump took to Truth Social to thank the Secret Service. His upper right ear was hit by a bullet, he explained. “I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin,” he wrote. “Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”
The United States has not seen this level of political violence since the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan in 1981 in Washington, DC.
President Joe Biden was quick to respond to the violence, saying that he is “grateful to hear that [Trump is] safe and doing well” and that he’s “praying for him and his family and for all those who were at the rally, as we await further information.”
“There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it,” Biden emphasized.
The Biden campaign has reportedly suspended its campaign ads, and elected officials on both sides of the aisle have condemned the shooting, denouncing political violence and hoping for Trump’s recovery.
Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer says it’s essential that everyone across the American political spectrum denounce the violence. “Ideally, that is done in a bipartisan manner, that is done in Congress, in the House, and in the Senate. Not with individual posts, and comments, and tweets, but from the entirety of a joint session condemning it and working for peace,” he says. “That’s what the country needs.”
What to expect: Trump’s quick reaction and defiant fist pump will likely cement his image as a political martyr – and benefit his campaign in the runup to the November election. “That response, and being caught on tape,” says Bremmer, “is going to be a rally for his people for a long time.” All eyes will be on Trump’s appearance at the upcoming Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which gets underway on Monday.
It may also lead to a slew of conspiracy theories that the Democratic Party was responsible, while Democrats are likely to wonder whether it was staged by the Trump campaign to boost him in the polls.
While the motivation of the shooter remains unknown, political tensions have been rising in the United States in recent years. Nearly 25% of Americans agree that “patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” and 75% believe that American democracy is at risk in the 2024 presidential election.
Against that backdrop, and with political extremism and disinformation having been weaponized through the media landscape, especially social media, Bremmer says today’s attempt on Trump’s life means “we should be prepared for more violence.”
Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer walk outside a polling station during the general election in London, Britain, on July 4, 2024.
British voters put a new spin on the Fourth of July today, freeing themselves from 14 years of Conservative rule. Labour won in a historic landslide, making party chief Keir Starmer the United Kingdom’s new prime minister.
In May, following news that inflation had slowed to 2.3%, then-PM Rishi Sunak called for a July election even though he could have waited until the end of the year. He tried to capitalize on the good inflation news and has spent the last six weeks campaigning up and down the country in a bid to win support.
But polls have consistently favored Labour by a wide margin. In the end, Labour secured 412 seats to the Conservatives’ 120. On Friday, King Charles invited Starmer to form a new UK government.
What will change? Domestically, Starmer has pledged to lead a “pro-business and pro-worker” government while facing “hard choices” for public spending. The party plans to work on “wealth creation” and, among other goals, aims to create a new publicly owned clean power company. In terms of foreign policy, Starmer is pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine, like Sunak, but he will take a different approach to the European Union to rebuild trust in the post-Brexit era.
Will the UK rejoin the EU? Not so fast. Starmer says he has no plans for a “Breturn” and does not believe the country will rejoin in his lifetime. That said he’s still looking to reset ties with the EU. According to Ian Bremmer, Starmer has developed a strong rapport with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and intends to expand Britain’s foreign policy cooperation. “He plans to propose a wide-ranging UK-EU security pact as well as bilateral defense agreements with Germany and France,” Bremmer wrote for GZERO.
“Longer term, he wants to return to something akin to a customs union in all but name.”
Hurricane Beryl makes its way to the Caribbean's Windward Islands, in a composite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GOES-East weather satellite June 30, 2024.
1st: Hurricane season’s first big storm has a name: Beryl. Strengthening into a Category 4 storm on Sunday, Beryl is rolling into the Caribbean with 130-mph winds and is expected to reach the Windward Islands in the West Indies early Monday.
18: Suicide bombings have killed at least 18, and possibly as many as 30, people in northeastern Nigeria. No group has claimed responsibility yet, but police say that female bombers struck a wedding and a funeral in Gwoza, in Borno State on Saturday. The region is home to Boko Haram’s Islamist insurgency, which has displaced more than two million people, and Islamic State West Africa Province has carried out similar bombings in Borno state.
55: The West African nation of Mauritania also went to the polls on Saturday, and by Sunday, President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani had was leading with 56% of the vote, according to results from more than 90% of polling stations. His closest rival had garnered just 23% of the vote, so the pro-Western Ghazouani – whose election in 2019 was the country’s first peaceful transition of power since independence in 1960 – looks set for another five-year term.
13: Indian cricket fans are celebrating after the country’s triumph Saturday in the Cricket World Cup, where it beat South Africa by seven runs to end a 13-year dry spell, in a dramatic display of bowling and fielding. This was India’s second T20 World Cup win – the last time it won was in 2007 – and its first international cricket win since clinching the 2011 ICC Cricket World Cup.Iranian women queue to vote at a polling station in a snap presidential election to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, in Tehran, Iran June 28, 2024.
Low voter turnout was expected, and many believed Pezeshkianwould come in first but fail to win the 50% majority needed to prevail outright. Experts like Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew anticipated that Pezeshkian would then meet either Jalili or Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in a runoff.
“Events bore out this expectation,” says Brew, “but with a few interesting twists.” First, voter turnout was even lower than feared – at just 40%. Second, Jalili and Qalibaf combined only won 13 million votes, far less than the 19 million Raisi had in 2021.
Round two looms. If Jalili wins in the second round on July 5, he would simply be another ideological hardliner hostile to the West with “retrograde views on important social issues.” This, says Brew, will ensure “dissatisfaction with the regime increases among ordinary Iranians.”
Pezeshkian would be weak and be easy for the regime to undermine, Brew explains, but “the Supreme Leader has always distrusted and feared the reformists and it’s hard to see him tolerating a reformist president, especially with a succession so close.”
In fact, neither candidate is ideal for the regime’s leadership. “While Jalili is ideologically suitable,” says Brew, “he doesn't appear to have much support from inside the regime.”
Still, one of them will prevail. “I'd say that the odds favor Jalili right now, especially as turnout is going to be even lower next week than it was for Friday's election,” says Brew, noting that if voters do align with Pezeshkian, it would just be to prevent a Jalili government.
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen gives her Constitution Day in Copenhagen, Denmark, on June 5, 2024.
Political violence is surging – even where you’d least expect it.
Danish PM Mette Frederiksen was attacked on a Copenhagen street on Friday, just two days before her country votes in EU Parliament elections. Her Social Democrats are the largest party in Denmark’s government, but they’ve been losing support in recent months.
Following a campaign event, a man reportedly walked up to Frederiksen and hit her in the city center late Friday. She was left in shock, and the assailant was arrested.
Fellow European politicians are taking to social media to offer support and condemn the attack, which comes just weeks after Slovakian PM Robert Fico survived a May 15 assassination attempt.
As we wrote earlier this week, scholars and police have been growing increasingly worried about the risk of political violence in both the US and Canada as both countries head into election cycles this year and next. But Europe is already in the throes of a tumultuous European election in which – amid sharp debates about immigration – the far right is expected to gain seats.
Stay tuned: We’ll be watching to see how Frederiksen bounces back from the attack, and how Danes and Europeans more broadly vote in the days ahead.
Palestinians search for food among burnt debris in the aftermath of an Israeli strike on an area designated for displaced people, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 27, 2024.
“A tragic mistake.” With those words, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahuattempted to mitigate the fallout from last week’s airstrike in Rafah that killed 45 Palestinians sheltering in a refugee camp. The US National Security Council expressed heartbreak over the “devastating images,” and French President Emmanuel Macron called for an immediate cease-fire. Germany and Qatar also criticized the attacks, stressing the need for better protection of civilians.
“We are investigating the case and will draw conclusions because this is our policy,” Netanyahu told the Knesset on Monday. “For us it’s a tragedy, for Hamas it’s a strategy.”
But the deaths have intensified scrutiny of Israel, with the UN and international courts demanding a halt to the Rafah offensive. They also come as three European countries — Ireland, Norway, and Spain — are set to recognize Palestinian statehood on Tuesday. Israel described the decision as “rewarding terrorism” and recalled its envoys from the three countries for urgent consultations.
Amid the chaos, new peace negotiations are apparently set to commence, “led by the mediators, Egypt, and Qatar and with active US involvement,” according to a source who spoke with Reuters. However, Hamas later told the news agency that "there is no date" for the talks to resume.A worker removes a campaign banner of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa after an African National Congress event ahead of the upcoming elections in Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024.
Over 50 parties are vying for the votes of the country’s 28 million citizens, but two of them could take South Africa in radically different directions. The first is the country’s main opposition party, the pro-business, mostly white-led, centrist Democratic Alliance. Leader John Steenhuisen has already gathered smaller opposition parties, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, to form the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa, pledging to combine their votes to challenge the ANC to form a government.
The second is the Marxist, Black-led Economic Freedom Fighters party, whose leader, former ANC politician Julius Malema,is calling for the nationalization of the country’s gold and platinum mines and the seizure of land from white farmers. Malema could be a kingmaker should the ANC need third-party support, a scenario Steenhuisen describes as“doomsday” for South Africa.
And while formerPresident Jacob Zuma cannot run in this year’s election due to convictions for corruption, observers see him as another potential kingmaker, wielding power behind the scenes through hisuMkhonto weSizwe Party.
Whatever the result, a coalition government would be inherently unstable. In the view of Eurasia analystZiyanda Stuurman, “I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.”