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Axel van Trotsenburg reflects on his 37-year career at the World Bank
As the global economy faces uncertainty, Axel van Trotsenburg, Senior Managing Director of the World Bank, warns that “a wait-and-see attitude” is holding back investment and growth, especially in developing countries. Speaking with GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings, van Trotsenburg highlights human capital and infrastructure as key priorities, with a growing urgency to bridge both the digital and AI divides.
On the role of technology, he stresses the promise of “small AI,” which can empower farmers and small businesses, while cautioning that large-scale AI depends on reliable energy access, a gap Africa must close to unlock opportunity. Reflecting on his 37-year career, he cites the World Bank’s evolution into a truly global institution and the mobilization of resources for the poorest countries as major achievements.
This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Kenya's opposition leader Raila Odinga addresses delegates after President William Ruto signed the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Amendment Bill 2024, backed by the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO), at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre in Nairobi, Kenya, on July 9, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Kenya’s long-time opposition leader dies, World Bank doubles down on agriculture, US revokes visas of Charlie Kirk critics, & more
80: Kenya’s long-time opposition leader Raila Odinga, who unsuccessfully ran for president five times but served as prime minister from 2008 to 2013, died of a heart attack in the Indian city of Kochi on Wednesday, at the age of 80. Though Odinga was generally out of power, his populist ideals and combative style gave him an outsized influence on the East African country.
$9 billion: At the World Bank/IMF annual meetings this week, the Bank pledged to double its annual investment in agriculture and farming to $9 billion. The program, called AgriConnect, will help fund the 500 million smallholder farmers globally who produce 80% of the food consumed, aiming to create more jobs and financing opportunities for the sector.
250,000: El Fasher, Sudan, has been declared “uninhabitable” after 549 days under siege by RSF forces. Ninety percent of homes are destroyed, food and water are nearly gone, and acute malnutrition affects children and mothers. Constant bombardment, hospital attacks, and communication blackouts have left 250,000 civilians trapped and barely surviving inside the paramilitary force’s blockade of the city.
6: The US has revoked the visas of at least six foreigners who “celebrated” the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on “far-left radicals.” The move follows expanded social media vetting by immigration officials and mass visa cancellations. Trump also posthumously awarded Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Tuesday.
3.5 million: In a desperate bid to end France’s short-term political chaos, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said he will delay President Emmanuel Macron’s signature pension reform, a move he says will benefit 3.5 million people. Lecornu hopes that the move will bring Socialist Party deputies onside, ensuring that he lives to fight another day.
Graphic Truth: 2025 global growth projections
The World Bank projects global economic growth will slow to 2.3% in 2025, down from the 2.7% clip forecast in January, as a result of trade wars launched largely by the US. While the global economy will avoid recession, the report also warns that economic growth is on track for its weakest decade since the 1960s. Here’s a look at three key figures from the report.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks during a press briefing on the World Economic Outlook during the 2025 World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings on April 22, 2025 in Washington, DC.
IMF downgrades growth outlook
“Just since January, we’ve entered into a new era,” IMF’s Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the press Tuesday at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. He explained why the IMF had just downgraded global economic growth expectations for 2025, from 3.3% to 2.8%, and global trade growth by more than half, from 3.8% last year to 1.7%.
Why? Global tariff rates are at their highest level since the Great Depression, following Donald Trump’s imposition of a 10% tariff on nearly all imports, along with duties of at least 145% on Chinese goods entering the United States. In a closed-door session with investors at a JP Morgan conference on Tuesday, US Trade Secretary Scott Bessent said that while the US will eventually de-escalate the trade war with China, negotiations with Beijing have yet to begin — and the process, he warned, will be a “slog.”
But an eventual de-escalation won’t alleviate concerns. “Beyond the tariffs themselves, the surge in policy uncertainty — related to trade policy but also more broadly — is a major driver of the economic outlook,” Gourinchas said. As a result, the US saw the sharpest downgrade among wealthy economies, with its expected 2025 growth falling from 2.7% to 1.8%.
Gourinchas notes that the downgrade could be temporary — if tariffs are rolled back and policy stability returns — but the IMF has raised the likelihood of a US recession this year to 40%, up from 25%.
All eyes are now on signals from the White House. Anticipation is building for Wednesday, when the Trump administration is expected to officially weigh in — and potentially upend the conversation. The administration has been hostile to international organizations like USAID and the United Nations, and some fear that the World Bank or the IMF could be next on the chopping block. Bessent is set to address the Institute of International Finance in the morning, followed by a high-stakes dinner with G20 leaders that evening.
GZERO will be watching to see how he responds to the IMF’s downgrade — and whether he offers any guidance to the institution itself. Some expect the Trump administration to urge the IMF to return to its traditional focus on balance of payments and debt crises, moving away from more progressive initiatives like supporting climate adaptation or promoting gender equality.
Rescue personnel walk near a building that collapsed after a strong earthquake struck central Myanmar on Friday, March 28, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Major earthquake strikes Southeast Asia, Israel passes judicial reform, Fox News wins advertisers, Pollution kills, HHS sees massive job cuts, Suspected US strikes hit Houthis
7.7: Two disastrous earthquakes, the first of 7.7 magnitude, struck Myanmar on Friday, destroying vital infrastructure across Southeast Asia. Videos of a collapsed bridge in Mandalay, Myanmar, and a fallen building in Bangkok, Thailand, have emerged. The number of casualties isn’t yet known, although several are feared trapped under a fallen skyscraper in the Thai capital. At least 144 people have been confirmed dead.
71,000: Israel’s right-wing government on Thursday passed a contentious law to allow politicians greater sway in judicial appointments, despite some 71,000 opposition amendments. The move is a part of the judicial overhaul that protesters have been fighting for over a year and comes amid Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial.
125: Since the US election, Fox News has gained 125 new high-profile advertisers as Rupert Murdoch’s cable network continues to draw soaring viewership during President Donald Trump’s second term. Businesses such as Amazon, GE Vernova, JPMorgan Chase, Netflix, and UBS have recently run ads on Fox News for the first time in over two years.
5.7 million: According to a new World Bank study, 5.7 million people are killed annually by air pollution. The global institution is calling on countries to take an integrated approach to halve the number of people breathing unhealthy air by 2040 and points to places like Mexico City, which has successfully curbed pollution, and Egypt and Turkey, which have put financing mechanisms in place to support emission reduction.
20,000: The Trump administration announced Thursday that it will cut 20,000 positions from the Department of Health and Human Services – 10,000 from job cuts and 10,000 from voluntary departures – as part of a major restructuring that its chief, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., says “will do more — a lot more — at a lower cost to the taxpayer.” RFK says the reorganization is intended to help the department prioritize the fight against chronic diseases, but critics fear it could hinder the critical agency, which includes Medicare and the Federal Drug Administration. And throughout the federal government, officials are planning for between 8% and 50% staff cuts, according to an internal White House document obtained by the Washington Post.
19: Two weeks after the Trump administration dropped its first bombs on Houthi rebels in Yemen — details of which were revealed over the now-infamous Signal chat — the United States is believed to have attacked again early Friday, firing at least 19 strikes. The extent of the damage is unclear, although the intensity of the bombardment has increased since the Biden administration first started pounding the Houthis.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks to the media during an International Monetary and Financial Committee press briefing on Friday, Oct. 25, 2024.
IMF and World Bank close annual meetings with urgent call for fragile economies
“The world now faces a low-growth, high-debt trajectory,” said Georgieva. Governments in developing countries now face a “trilemma” of needing to increase spending – sometimes by as much as 14% – while being unable to raise tax revenues as they face fiscal buffers exhausted by the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. And she acknowledged that the Fund’s projections include “a severe, but plausible scenario” in which global public debt could exceed the baseline by some 20%.
That risk is compounded by growing political opposition to free trade, which Georgieva characterized as a “retreat from global economic integration driven by both national security concerns and the anger of those who lost out.” Reduced trade will hamper growth and push countries to borrow more to make up the difference.
These pressures pose the highest risk for sub-Saharan Africa, already struggling with high debt and lacking the levels of growth necessary to get ahead. Speaking at a separate event on Friday, the IMF’s Africa Director Abebe Selassie said the region will likely grow by 4.2% in 2025, well below the 6-7% growth rates enjoyed previously. “This pace is not sufficient to significantly reduce poverty or to recover ground lost in recent years, let alone address the substantial developmental challenges ahead,” he said.
So what can be done? World Bank President Ajay Banga gave an introspective prescription at the closing plenary: Simplify, simplify, simplify. “Development delayed is development denied,” he explained while outlining progress on reducing the time the World Bank takes to approve projects from an average of 19 to 12 months, and faster where possible. The Bank has made a substantial improvement — they’re down to 16 months — but time is money, as the saying goes, and more haste will make the Bank’s programs more effective in Banga’s view.
On the IMF’s side (often more concerned with stabilization than development), Georgieva outlined three tools: rebuilding fiscal buffers in vulnerable economies, investing in growth that can ease debt burdens, and taking a cooperative approach across borders.
Of course, much depends on factors outside the control of these development finance institutions. We’re watching how the results of the US election, the roiling debt and property market problems in China, and the conflicts in Ukraine, the Levant, Sudan, and elsewhere affect the outlook.
Hot topics at the IMF-World Bank meetings
Delegates at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings have been giving rosy outlooks to the press while the cameras are rolling, but GZERO Senior Writer Matthew Kendrick heard a different story in private settings. He told Tony Maciulis that the global outlook depends heavily on US policy continuity — which is highly unlikely under a second Trump administration — and successful efforts in China to revive its own floundering economy.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Delegates are eager to point to success stories, including in Ukraine and Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting how the world’s leading development banks can make a real impact on some of the most fragile economies and vulnerable populations.
Watch to learn more about what Matt heard on the ground.
Watch more from Global Stage.
Global economy at risk if Middle East conflict expands, says World Bank's Ayhan Kose
While the global economy shows signs of growth and decreasing inflation, the near future involves risks, including the escalation in the Middle East impacting oil prices, strained China-US relations, and an increasingly challenging tariff and trade environment, said Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist. He discussed the geopolitical tensions influencing the global economy with GZERO's Tony Maciulis at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, in a GZERO Global Stage interview. Kose also addressed the other major economic gathering happening this week: Russia’s 16th annual BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, largely seen as a counterweight to Western-led order. While acknowledging the widening economic and geopolitical divide, Kose emphasized the need for international cooperation. He expressed concern about “the increase in the number of protectionist measures and consequences of that for global trade.” Kose also emphasized the "urgent and important" need for World Bank member nations to continue to support development in poorer countries, a more difficult conversation today as many face their own economic headwinds and the world awaits the results of the 2024 US presidential election.