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America’s “buy now, pay later” trap
The United States is #winning.
At least that’s how it looks if you’re tracking the economy, market indices, or the parade of countries lining up to cut deals with President Donald Trump. Asian and Gulf countries have pledged trillions of dollars in foreign direct investment in the US during the Trump presidency. The United Kingdom, the European Union, and several Southeast Asian nations have offered non-reciprocal trade deals. Canada folded on its plan to impose a digital services tax. Japan made unilateral concessions on automotive tariffs and Nippon Steel. European pharmaceutical companies are relocating production stateside to avoid punitive tariffs. Consumer confidence may be in the doldrums, but spending remains resilient (driven by the wealthiest Americans). Combined with an artificial intelligence spending boom and massive deficit spending – enabled by the dollar’s ongoing status as the global reserve currency – markets continue betting on American liquidity and growth.
It’s a heady moment. But while the short-term picture looks strong, the United States is systematically trading long-term strategic advantages for immediate tactical gains, with the accumulating costs hiding in plain sight.
Start with immigration. For decades, the cornerstone of America’s technological, economic, and soft-power dominance has been its ability to attract the best and brightest from around the world. Talented engineers, scientists, and entrepreneurs long chose the US because it promised opportunity, freedom, openness, and meritocracy – a fair shot at the American Dream. Now, the welcome mat is fraying. The Trump administration is increasingly hostile to immigrants (whether legal or illegal, skilled or unskilled), nativist sentiment among Americans is growing, and civil liberties (especially for non-white immigrants) feel increasingly uncertain. The numbers speak for themselves: International student arrivals to the US have declined by nearly 20% relative to last year. Meanwhile, China is rolling out new visas explicitly designed to poach high-skilled workers from the United States, and Canada is plastering airports with recruitment pitches. As America becomes a less attractive destination for top global talent relative to its competitors, the long-term economic damage will compound.
Then there are the universities. Yes, many humanities departments had grown intellectually insular and politically captured. Taking on these echo chambers for fringe woke ideology was long overdue. But the Trump administration has gone much further, slashing research infrastructure at America’s (and the world’s) finest universities. These institutions are what keep America at the cutting edge of advanced science and technology and draw the most talented students globally – the ones who become tomorrow’s leading researchers, inventors, and entrepreneurs. Undermining that ecosystem will erode one of the most important pillars of the US economy at a time when public trust in science itself is declining. Growing vaccine skepticism, embrace of conspiracy theories, reflexive rejection of expertise – these aren’t just cultural quirks, they’re a structural disadvantage when competing against countries where faith in science remains strong. They’re making Americans less capable of driving the next wave of technological advances, and therefore less likely to dominate the commanding heights of the world economy and geopolitics.
Consider artificial intelligence. The United States is racing ahead in consumer-facing AI – chatbots, engagement-maximizing social media algorithms, generative tools to produce yet-more-addictive slop, ever-larger language models that claim to be one step closer to superintelligence – because that’s where the money is. But these technologies are also fragmenting society, amplifying misinformation, and possibly contributing to a kind of collective psychosis. China, by contrast, has channeled AI development away from consumer applications in favor of defense and industrial uses, which carry less risk of social fragmentation and more strategic upside.
It’s a similar story when it comes to energy. The United States has become the world’s most powerful petrostate, producing more oil, gas, and coal than any other country. That’s not inherently a problem – fossil fuels will continue to power data centers, agriculture, and heavy industry for decades to come. But the US has effectively ceded leadership on post-carbon energy to China, which already dominates battery technology, solar power, next-generation nuclear, and supply chains for critical minerals. Washington is doubling down on hydrocarbons while letting the future of energy pass it by.
Or take trade policy. The Trump administration is imposing the highest US tariffs in a century – including on major allies, on countries with no bilateral trade imbalances, and on sectors where America lacks capacity to ramp up domestic production quickly enough to avoid shortages or inflation. Following Trump’s Oct. 30 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping – which put escalation on hold for a year and lowered fentanyl tariffs on China from 20% to 10% in exchange for politically-sensitive soybean purchases – the effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports now sits at 32%, close to the rate on ASEAN countries and lower than on its strategic partner India and South America’s largest economy, Brazil, which actually runs a trade surplus with the United States.
The cumulative result is a roughly 17% regressive tax on American businesses and consumers, which are forced to pay more for intermediate inputs and final goods. Paired with a sharp turn toward industrial policy and state capitalism, the US is moving away from the free-market principles that made its economy so competitive in the first place. Targeted government intervention in select sectors (e.g., semiconductors, banking) can sometimes be justified on specific grounds (e.g., national security, financial stability), but history shows that broad protectionism and state direction tend to make economies less, not more, dynamic over time.
This short-term thinking extends to geopolitics. As I wrote last week, most countries are prepared to give the US wins – some pyrrhic, some significant – to avoid open conflict. But these same countries are also working to ensure they’re never in that position again. The EU has finalized trade agreements with Mexico, Indonesia, and the South American trading bloc Mercosur. Brazil is deepening economic ties with Europe, China, and Canada. India is working to stabilize relations with China while accelerating infrastructure projects that reduce its dependence on US markets. Saudi Arabia has signed a nuclear deal with Pakistan to hedge against future security neglect from Washington.
These moves aren’t costless – they require years of political capital, billions in investment, and new institutional architecture. Once built, they’re hard to reverse. But countries have learned the hard way that US policy can change course every election cycle with little in the way of policy continuity or long-term strategic planning, and they’re building alternatives now while accommodating Washington in the short run. Every four years, there’s a 50/50 chance that everything – not just the winners and losers but the rules of the road – shifts. Gone are the days when politics ended at water’s edge. That structural volatility reduces American leverage over time, even as it delivers wins for the world’s largest economy.
So when asking whether the United States will retain its lead over its allies and adversaries, the answer depends on the time horizon. Short-term? Absolutely. America remains by far the world’s most powerful country, so there’s a lot of room for damage before structural decline sets in. Moreover, artificial intelligence is about to change everything, and the US is one of only two games in town (China being the other) and still the preferred partner for most of the West and parts of the Global South.
But long term, the trajectory is troubling. The historical advantages the United States enjoyed over its peers – better physical and institutional infrastructure, superior demographics driven partly by immigration, public tolerance for inequality undergirded by perception of meritocracy, greater capacity for deficit spending – are all heading in the wrong direction, arguably unsustainably so. China, despite being in a weaker overall position, is doing what it can to exploit these shifts. And while Beijing faces severe structural challenges of its own, it benefits from the increasingly accurate perception that it takes the long view while America chases the next election.
Perhaps most worrying is the one thing everyone in a deeply divided America now agrees on: that the country’s biggest threat is domestic. They just disagree on who that threat is. That kind of inward turn ensures the bulk of the national energy and focus will remain on fighting internecine political battles rather than making the deeper, patient investments – in people, institutions, research, and infrastructure – required to keep the United States competitive a generation from now.
America is giving up long-term leadership in exchange for short-term wins. The question isn’t whether the United States will pay for this addiction to immediate gratification. It's only when the bill will come due – and how much it will cost.
Could Israel's Gaza gamble be paying off?
On the latest episode of the GZERO World podcast, the paradox at the heart of Israeli foreign policy today. Militarily, Israel is dominant. Diplomatically, it’s more isolated than ever.
This week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his fourth trip to the White House since President Trump returned to office, standing beside him to unveil what Trump called a “landmark” Gaza peace proposal. But behind the bold language is a growing distance between Israel and the world. Gaza has been devastated, Hamas is on its heels, and yet, the cost to Israel’s global standing continues to rise.
Former US diplomat and Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller joins Ian to unpack the uncomfortable truth: Israel may be winning on the battlefield, but it’s losing support in global capitals, and possibly at home.
“Not a single cost or consequence has been imposed by any Arab state on Israel,” Miller says. “They’ve done nothing. The Arab states are running scared of Trump. They’re either afraid of him or they want something from him.”
From European governments pulling investments and recognizing Palestinian statehood, to rising grassroots pushback across American campuses, Israel’s brand is eroding—even as Netanyahu locks arms more tightly with Trump.
US President Donald Trump displays a signed executive order on gold card visa in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on September 19, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin introduces visa fee, Ransomware flies through European airports, Drone strike in Sudan kills 78, US bombs third boat from Venezuela
$100,000: The Trump administration introduced a $100,000 one-time fee for those who wish to obtain a H-1B visa. The initial announcement sparked upheaval among major US firms, as it appeared to suggest that there would be an annual $100,000 fee for the visa. The White House clarified that it would be a one-off payment, and wouldn’t apply to existing visaholders. The majority of H-1B visaholders are Indian nationals.
140: A ransomware attack that struck several major European airports on Friday continues to sow chaos, with Brussels Airport asking airlines to cancel 140 of the 276 scheduled outbound flights on Monday. The source of the attack remains unclear.
78: A drone strike on a mosque in El Fasher, in North Darfur, on Friday killed 78 people, per a local medic. The rebel Rapid Support Forces have been blamed for the attack, though they deny responsibility. Drones have expanded the scope of Sudan’s civil war, putting more and more civilians at risk – read more here.
3: A pattern is beginning to emerge, as the US military – for the third time in recent weeks – bombed a boat that was reportedly carrying drugs from Venezuela. The attack killed three people on board. US President Donald Trump has argued that the move is legal, since drug cartels in his view are foreign terrorist organizations.
Will the clean energy revolution leave the US behind?
Over the past decade, renewable energy has exploded. Technology is improving. Costs are plummeting. This is now the fastest energy transition in human history. But just as the world goes all in on renewables, the US is doubling down on fossil fuels. Does it risk being left behind in the race to power the future? Environmentalist and author Bill McKibben joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss the sudden and overwhelming surge of clean energy installation and generation over the past two years, China’s push to dominate the renewable market, and whether the Trump administration’s policies will put the US at a disadvantage.
The White House has cancelled funding solar and wind projects and is pushing other countries to buy more oil and gas, but McKibben says the scale and pace of the global energy transformation is just too powerful to ignore. McKibben’s new book, "Here Comes the Sun," argues that renewables aren’t just a climate fix—they’re a political and economic opportunity to reshape our future. He has no doubt that 30 years from now, we’ll run the planet on sun and wind simply because of economics, but also warns the world will face serious problems if it takes that long to get there
“Fossil fuels become harder to get over time. Renewable energy is the opposite,” McKibben says, “We now live on a planet where the cheapest way to make energy is to point a sheet of glass at the sun.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Renewable energy and the case for climate optimism with Bill McKibben
Is the clean energy revolution finally here? Over the past few years, the world has experienced a sudden and overwhelming surge in renewable energy installation and generation, outpacing even the most optimistic predictions from experts. This week on the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer talks to with Bill McKibben, an environmentalist and author, about the stakes and scale of the global energy transformation. His new book, "Here Comes the Sun," argues renewables aren’t just a climate fix—they’re a political and economic opportunity.
Costs from solar and wind have dropped so dramatically in the last 36 months that they’re now the cheapest way to produce electricity worldwide. And energy independence has become a national security issue amid so much global instability. But while China and Europe are pushing ahead in the race to power the future, the Trump administration is doubling down on fossil fuels. What happens if the US puts the brakes on clean energy, just as the rest of the world hits the gas? Or rather... plugs in the solar battery? Do we risk being left in the dark?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published
Will Trump's energy policies set back climate progress?
President Trump has made no secret of his distaste for wind and solar and preference for fossil fuels. His administration has canceled subsidies for renewable projects, lifted drilling restrictions on federal land, and is pressuring allies to buy more American oil and gas. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the reality of the energy transition and whether US policies will slow down global progress in moving toward a renewable future.
No matter what the White House says, the incentives for renewables are hard to ignore. From Texas to Saudi Arabia, India to China, governments all over the world are embracing solar and wind not just for the planet, but for economic and security reasons. Clean energy is now the cheapest power source almost everywhere. And, amid rising instability, energy independence has become a safety and security issue. You can’t embargo the sun. No one controls the wind. Fossil fuels still matter, but the question is no longer if the world will transition. It's how fast.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
A member of Nepal army stands guard as people gather to observe rituals during the final day of Indra Jatra festival to worship Indra, Kumari and other deities and to mark the end of monsoon season.
What We’re Watching: Nepal’s protesters pick a leader, Trump courts Belarus
Nepal’s Gen Z’s protestors pick their woman
Nepal’s “Gen-Z” protest movement has looked to a different generation entirely with their pick for an interim leader. Protest leaders say they want the country’s retired chief justice, Sushila Karki, 73, to head a transitional government. The demand comes just two days after the prime minister resigned amid swelling anti-corruption protests triggered last week by a social media ban. Karki has reportedly accepted, but is currently negotiating with the president and other powerbrokers to find a constitutional path to power. For an explanation of these protests which are not “mid", see GZERO’s feature from yesterday.
Trump’s Belarus courtship continues
The ultra-authoritarian Belarusian regime of Alexander Lukashenko has released 52 prisoners, reportedly at the urging of the White House. Meanwhile, the US says plans are afoot to normalize ties with the deeply isolated country, Russia’s closest ally. The Trump Administration has poured a lot of effort into relations with Lukashenko, whose 31-year reign, crackdowns on dissent, and election-rigging have earned him the moniker “Europe’s last Dictator.” Lukashenko has styled himself as a kind of “Putin Whisperer.” Is Trump seeking a bridge to the Russian president, or a potential wedge against him?
A destroyed streetcar on Lisbon's iconic Gloria funicular railway line after it derailed and crashed, killing 16 passengers and injuring about 20 in one of the deadliest public transport accidents in Portugal, on Sept. 4, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Train tragedy in Lisbon, Painting stolen by Nazis discovered on a listing, US judge rules in favor of Harvard, Armani passes at 91
16: A funicular railway crashed Wednesday evening in Lisbon, Portugal, killing at least 16 people. The renowned yellow cable cars help transport people up the capital city’s steep, cobblestoned streets, and are a favorite for tourists. Foreign nationals account for most of the dead. Officials haven’t confirmed the cause of the crash, though eyewitnesses say a brake failure sent the car hurtling down the street and into a building.
80: A painting looted by the Nazis 80 years ago has been found in Argentina after it was spotted in a listing on an estate agent’s website. Italian painter Giuseppe Ghislandi painted the piece, called Portrait of a Lady, some 300 years ago. The Nazis stole many paintings, often from Jewish people who they imprisoned or killed. The most famous example is Gustav Klimt’s Woman in Gold, which now lies in New York City’s Neue Galerie.
$2.6 billion: A federal judge on Wednesday ruled that the Trump administration’s freeze on $2.6 billion in research funds was illegal. The judge found that the freezes, officially linked to Harvard’s handling of antisemitism, had little to do with its federally funded research and were instead a retaliation for the university refusing to comply with the administration’s demands to end its DEI efforts and screen international students for bias.
91: Legendary Italian designer Giorgio Armani has died at 91. Famous for redefining modern suits and global elegance, his empire spanned fashion, beauty, sport, and luxury hotels. Tributes poured in from leaders and celebrities, hailing him as a tireless pioneer who revolutionized style, elevated red carpets, and championed healthier runway standards.