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Hard Numbers: Google to build AI data hub in India, Mexican rains kill dozens, Venezuela shuts Norwegian embassy, China puts sanctions on Korean shipbuilder
64: Torrid rains in Mexico last week – the result of an unusual clash of hot and cold fronts – have left 64 dead and another 65 missing. The rain damaged some 100,000 homes, and has left five states without power. The worst-affected areas were in the central parts of the country, as well as along the Gulf Coast.
3: Just three days after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Caracas shut its embassy in Oslo on Monday. The Venezuelan didn’t mention Machado in its statement about the closure. Norway also suffered a diplomatic blow for similar reasons in 2010, when China suspended trade relations after the Nobel Committee awarded its prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.
5: China sanctioned five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding US investigations. The move coincided with new US-China port fees and sent Hanwha shares down nearly 6%. Seoul said it’s assessing the impact as tensions over shipbuilding escalate.Israeli protestors hold up pictures of Israeli soldiers held by Hamas in Gaza during a demonstration earlier this week following the announcement of a Gaza ceasefire proposal by US President Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hard Numbers: Trump sets Hamas deadline, Venezuela vents at US, Diddy awaits fate, Church of England appoints first female leader
2200: Donald Trump has given Hamas until Sunday at 2200 GMT – which is 6pm in Washington, DC –to accept the Gaza deal that he and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu proposed earlier this week. The framework calls for the release of Hamas-held hostages in exchange for Israeli-held Palestinian prisoners, a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops, an internationally-overseen transitional Gaza government, and amnesty for Hamas fighters who lay down arms. If the group refuses, Trump said, “all hell” will break loose.
5: Venezuela accused the US of “provocation” after detecting five US fighter jets near its Caribbean coast on Thursday. The flyover follows Trump telling Congress that the US is in an “armed conflict” and recent US strikes on alleged Venezuela-linked drug-trafficking boats. Caracas fears Washington’s real aim is to oust President Nicolás Maduro – read what that could look like here.
11: Music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs will be sentenced Friday in Manhattan federal court after his recent conviction on charges that he transported women across state lines for prostitution. Acquitted of more serious charges, he faces a wide sentencing range: with the defense seeking no more than 14 months, while prosecutors want 11 years.
1: Dame Sarah Mullally, former chief nursing officer for England, has been appointed the first female archbishop of Canterbury to lead the Church of England. The church did not allow women to become bishops until 2014.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro attends to a military event in Caracas, Venezuela August 4, 2018.
Regime change in America’s backyard?
The Trump administration is moving closer to a direct confrontation with Venezuela, raising the possibility of what the president once vowed to avoid: another US-backed regime change.
Washington has already deployed warships, surveillance planes, and submarines to the Caribbean, and indicated the possibility of a strike inside Venezuela. US forces recently sank Venezuelan boats claiming drug smugglers were aboard, killing 17 people. At the same time, officials have branded Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a cartel boss, “fugitive of American justice,” and threatened to categorize his government as a “state sponsor of terror.”
Behind the scenes, senior officials are actively debating whether to escalate further. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House policy chief Stephen Miller, and CIA Director John Ratcliff are leading the charge for Maduro’s ouster. Their strategy appears to hinge on applying enough military pressure to trigger an internal rupture — splitting the regime and forcing the Venezuelan military to abandon its leader.
“I think the administration has been pretty clearly signaling that they would like to strike,” said Eurasia Group Latin America director Risa Grais-Targow. “If they haven’t yet, it’s less about lack of desire than an inability to identify reliable targets — US intelligence inside Venezuela has long been weak.”
The stakes are high. Though opposition leaders, including recent election winner Edmundo González, have signaled readiness to govern, most analysts doubt a smooth handover is likely. The opposition won the country’s 2024 presidential election but was denied power after Maduro refused to step down, and has been lobbying Washington ever since to put economic and military pressure on Maduro’s regime.
But a more probable outcome would be an initial transition from within the regime itself — perhaps a senior military figure replacing Maduro. But as Grais-Targow cautioned, “Even if Maduro is removed, the transition will be long, messy, and potentially violent. Deep mistrust between the opposition and the military makes a clean break unlikely.”
And there’s always the chance of blowback. Limited US strikes could strengthen Maduro’s grip by rallying regime loyalists and even some ordinary Venezuelans against a foreign threat. For many in Latin America, US-imposed regime change recalls a long history of interventions that left behind bloodshed and instability.
Why risk it? Three drivers appear to be shaping Trump’s calculus. First, drugs: disrupting smuggling routes plays well with voters concerned about fentanyl and cocaine flowing into swing states. Second, ideology: Rubio and other hawks see Maduro’s fall as the first domino in toppling Cuba and Nicaragua next. Third, geopolitics: Trump views Latin America as America’s backyard, where a military buildup is also a show of strength against China, which has become the region's biggest economic partner in recent years.
“Trump sees Latin America as within the US sphere of influence, and he's really keen to exert US dominance in the region vis-a-vis China," says Grais-Targow.
US President Donald Trump displays a signed executive order on gold card visa in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on September 19, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin introduces visa fee, Ransomware flies through European airports, Drone strike in Sudan kills 78, US bombs third boat from Venezuela
$100,000: The Trump administration introduced a $100,000 one-time fee for those who wish to obtain a H-1B visa. The initial announcement sparked upheaval among major US firms, as it appeared to suggest that there would be an annual $100,000 fee for the visa. The White House clarified that it would be a one-off payment, and wouldn’t apply to existing visaholders. The majority of H-1B visaholders are Indian nationals.
140: A ransomware attack that struck several major European airports on Friday continues to sow chaos, with Brussels Airport asking airlines to cancel 140 of the 276 scheduled outbound flights on Monday. The source of the attack remains unclear.
78: A drone strike on a mosque in El Fasher, in North Darfur, on Friday killed 78 people, per a local medic. The rebel Rapid Support Forces have been blamed for the attack, though they deny responsibility. Drones have expanded the scope of Sudan’s civil war, putting more and more civilians at risk – read more here.
3: A pattern is beginning to emerge, as the US military – for the third time in recent weeks – bombed a boat that was reportedly carrying drugs from Venezuela. The attack killed three people on board. US President Donald Trump has argued that the move is legal, since drug cartels in his view are foreign terrorist organizations.
Protesters led by children march in London, United Kingdom, on June 1, 2025, demanding the release of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia and an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Hard Numbers: Russia reportedly indoctrinating kidnapped Ukrainian children, Fed to discuss rate cuts amid political firestorm, Argentina’s Milei presents budget, & More
210: The Kremlin is holding Ukrainian children at 210 different sites across Russia, according to a Yale University report, and forcing them to have re-education sessions and military training. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has regularly cited the abductions as evidence that Moscow is committing genocide in Ukraine. Kyiv estimates that 20,000 children have been taken since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
€1 billion: Poland increased its cybersecurity budget from €600 million ($708m) to €1 billion ($1.18b) after Russian hackers targeted its hospitals and Warsaw’s water supply. The Polish foreign minister said the country faces 20-50 cyber threats to critical infrastructure each day, most of which it thwarts.
3: The US military hit a Venezuela drug boat on Monday, killing three people. The attack marks the second time this month that the US has hit a boat suspected of drug smuggling off the coast of Venezuela.
7: A political storm is clouding the US Federal Reserve as its seven governors meet over the next couple of days to decide whether to cut interest rates – the target range is currently 4.25%-4.5%. Among the seven decision-makers are Lisa Cook, whom President Donald Trump has tried to fire but remains in situ after a court win yesterday, and Stephen Miran, a Trump ally whom the Senate confirmed only yesterday.
1.5%: Argentine President Javier Milei presented his 2026 budget proposal Tuesday to the National Congress, with the aim of having a fiscal surplus of 1.5% next year. The budgets for each of the last two years have been rejected, so the government has instead extended and continued to use the one implemented in 2023. With the midterm election only six weeks away, the budget could have political ramifications for Milei.
Is the US about to invade Venezuela?
Seven warships, a nuclear submarine, over two thousand Marines, and several spy planes. Over the past week, the United States has stacked a serious military footprint off Venezuela’s coast. The White House claims this is a drug enforcement mission. And sure enough, yesterday the US Navy carried out its first – though surely not its last – lethal strike against a boat allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuela, killing 11 members of the Tren de Aragua gang.
But bringing amphibious assault ships and cruise missiles to a drug bust is like using a blowtorch to kill a mosquito: overkill. A deployment of this scale costs taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars, risks miscalculation and accidents, diverts scarce resources from more strategic theaters, and – fundamentally – it’s far more muscle than the stated mission requires.
Either this is history’s most expensive counter-narcotics operation or it’s … something more.
A run of legal and political escalations points to a bigger play. Over the last few weeks, the Trump administration designated Venezuelan cartels as terrorist organizations and Nicolás Maduro as their leader. It doubled the bounty on Maduro’s head to $50 million. It authorized the Defense Department to use force against cartels in Venezuela and Mexico. And it made a point of reiterating that the US does not recognize Maduro as a legitimate head of state protected by US law – a crucial step in creating legal cover to target him directly, if Trump so ordered. These moves happened before the flotilla started steaming south.
Add it all up and this reads like the opening act of a pressure campaign to unseat Maduro.
President Trump is usually – though not always (see Brazil, for example) – skeptical of regime change, but Secretary of State and national security adviser (and acting USAID Administrator, and acting Archivist) Marco Rubio has been pushing for a more active US intervention in Venezuela since his Senate days. For Rubio, whose worldview was shaped by Miami Cuban exile politics, hitting Caracas is about more than drugs, crime, and illegal migrants – it's about taking down what he sees as Cuba's oil-subsidized proxy and the first step in cleaning house across Latin America.
Trump himself has competing impulses. On one hand, he promised voters no new foreign wars and still mistrusts the Venezuelan opposition after getting burned by the Juan Guaidó fiasco in his first term. Unlike Rubio, he also has no principled commitments to the cause of Venezuelan democracy. Even as his administration tightened the screws on Maduro and his circle, it quietly reinstated Chevron’s license to pump Venezuelan oil earlier this year. The license is structured to keep oil moving but on terms that favor American interests rather than PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil monopoly.
On the other hand, Trump is not ideologically averse to all military action – only to politically costly quagmires – and he has plenty of reasons to want to see Maduro gone. Judging by the administration’s recent moves, Rubio may have succeeded in convincing the president that Venezuela offers the perfect opportunity for him to project strength on the global stage and take an easy victory lap at a time when the regime is brittle and some of his other big-ticket foreign policy gambits, such as Ukraine diplomacy, are flopping.
None of this implies boots on the ground. Trump has zero appetite for another Iraq that would be politically toxic and unpopular even with his MAGA base (not to mention that a ground invasion would require a much larger troop deployment).
But military actions against cartel infrastructure, key facilitators, or military assets propping up the regime? That would align with Rubio’s agenda, explain the scale of the buildup, and give Trump easier-to-sell wins that don’t risk messy entanglements. Most likely, the goal isn’t to seize territory or topple the regime in one go (though targeted decapitation strikes can’t be ruled out); it’s to ramp up the pressure on the people keeping Maduro in power, shifting their calculations and eventually threatening his standing.
That’s how most autocracies crack – from within. Venezuela's military has stuck with Maduro (and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez) through the country’s economic collapse and international isolation, but its loyalty is transactional. Fifty million-dollar bounties, a naval blockade, and the prospect of death by Tomahawk create powerful incentives to reconsider.
This isn’t to say the regime is about to collapse. Even if Maduro falls – still a big if – the military and palace power brokers would try to manage the transition and install his successor. Think Vice President Delcy Rodríguez or her brother, National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez, both pragmatic insiders who've negotiated with Washington and the opposition before. The ruling PSUV has far-reaching institutional control; any deal that persuades regime elites to stand down will require extensive power‑sharing and amnesty guarantees. The path to real elections and opposition government would be long, messy, and probably violent.
But that's getting ahead of ourselves. The immediate question is simpler: are we looking at theater or prelude? My bet is it’s a little bit of both, but we will know soon enough. Those around Maduro must be wondering whether he’s still worth the risk of sticking around to find out.
US strike on vessel from Venezuela
Is the US trying to topple Venezuela's leader?
In this episode of ask ian, Ian Bremmer breaks down the recent US military strike on a vessel leaving Venezuela and what it signals for the Trump administration’s broader strategy.
“The United States has now engaged in an initial strike claiming a drug enforcement mission,” Ian explains. But the scale of the operation tells another story: “Seven US warships, a nuclear submarine, over 2,000 Marines, and several spy planes…this is clearly not just a drug interdiction.”
Ian suggests the move could be the start of a blockade or even strikes on gangs and terrorist groups inside Venezuela. While some US officials have long pushed for Nicolás Maduro’s removal, he cautions against assuming regime change. Ian notes, “I’d be very surprised to see boots on the ground.”
The Venezuela policy, Ian remarks, stands in stark contrast to Trump’s approach in Israel, where the US government continues to provide funding and political support, an exception to his ‘America First’ stance.
China's liquid-fueled intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles DongFeng-5C, which have a global strike range, pass through Tiananmen Square during the V-Day military parade in Beijing, China, on September 3, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Xi hosts military parade, Poland’s new prez to meet Trump, US hits drug-carrying Venezuelan ship
China’s giant parade sends a message to the West
Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted a massive military parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square earlier today, featuring 10,000 troops and a show of new weapons, including an intercontinental ballistic missile that could strike the United States mainland. The procession wrapped up a jam-packed week of diplomacy and showmanship, with some 26 foreign leaders – including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – in attendance. Though the display officially marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II – especially China’s war with Japan – the purpose was a little more contemporary: Xi wants to subvert the notion that the US is the lone global hegemonic power.
Poland’s new president comes to Washington to discuss own Russia border
Unlike other European leaders, Polish President Karol Nawrocki won’t be imploring US President Donald Trump to lend more support to Ukraine when he makes his first official White House visit today. He’ll instead focus on his own border with Russia. The Trump administration’s interest in Europe appears to be dwindling, so Poland – which relies heavily on US military support – will be hoping to maintain that backing. Nawrocki, just four weeks into the new job, also faces his own power struggle with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk over everything from foreign policy to social welfare, making this trip a useful opportunity to position himself as the leading Polish voice on the world stage.
Trump escalates pressure on Maduro with Caribbean strike
The US president said a military strike destroyed a drug-laden vessel near Venezuela, killing 11 suspected members of the Tren de Aragua gang. Trump shared a grainy video of the explosion on Truth Social, warning traffickers to “beware.” Caracas dismissed the footage as AI-generated, but Washington insisted it was authentic. The operation comes as Trump escalates pressure on President Nicolás Maduro, recently doubling the bounty to $50 million for information leading to the Venezuelan leader’s arrest on drug charges. Venezuela has vowed to resist US intervention, calling the growing American military presence in the Caribbean the greatest regional threat in a century.