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Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro leads the celebration of the 22nd anniversary of late President Hugo Chavez's return to power after a failed coup attempt in 2002, in Caracas, Venezuela April 13, 2024
Biden reimposes sanctions on Venezuela*
The Biden administrationannounced this week it will reimpose oil sector sanctions on Venezuela because President Nicolas Maduro’s government has backed away from a commitment to hold a free and fair presidential election this year.
The US lifted sanctions six months ago, but Maduro’s government has since banned opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from running for president and blocked her chosen replacement from running too.
Now for the asterisk: US oil giant Chevron will be permitted to keep a joint venture with Venezuela’s national oil company. Why? Look at the calendar. Biden’s got an election to win in seven months. Venezuela is a major oil producer, and the US wants to avoid giving oil markets any more reason to worry.
After all, the threat of a wider war in the Middle East is creating oil supply jitters while a rapidly recovering Chinese economy is expected to start guzzling more crude again this year.
So while Joe Biden can no longer pretend Venezuela’s people will have a real choice in their election, with US inflation still stubbornly high, he’s got to make some hard choices about his own — and this is one of them.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro meets with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (not pictured) at Miraflores Palace, in Caracas, Venezuela February 20, 2024.
Venezuela picks election date
The government of Nicolás Maduro has picked July 28 as the date for the next presidential election.
With the popular opposition candidate María Corina Machado banned from running because of financial impropriety charges that she says are bogus, late July leaves precious little time for Maduro’s opponents to coalesce around an alternative challenger.
That, of course, may be precisely the point.
That leaves two big questions: First, will the US judge that this move violates the “free and fair elections in exchange for sanctions relief” deal struck between Caracas and Washington last year? If so, the Biden administration will have to slap tough sanctions back onto the energy sector in oil-rich Venezuela.
Second, is Maduro overplaying his hand? By squeezing the opposition so brazenly, he risks triggering big protests if the election is seen as a sham.
But five years after surviving street protests of hundreds of thousands (and a mass exodus of millions more) over unfair elections, Maduro is betting that this time around most of those who would challenge him are already either politically exhausted or permanently exiled. Vamos a ver.
FILE PHOTO: Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro attends to a military event in Caracas, Venezuela August 4, 2018.
Is Maduro behind a murder in Chile?
On Sunday, Chilean prosecutors said they had arrested a suspect in the murder of Ronald Ojeda, a 32-year-old Venezuelan ex-lieutenant and vocal critic of the government of President Nicolás Maduro, who was found dead in Santiago on Friday. Authorities said the lack of ransom demands and Ojeda's political history means he may have been abducted and killed by Venezuelan agents.
Ojeda had fled Caracas for Santiago in 2017, where he lived as a political refugee. He was charged with treason by the Venezuelan government in January, just weeks before he was abducted by four armed men on Feb. 21. His body was found encased in cement in a suitcase following a nine-day search. The detained suspect is a 17-year-old Venezuelan national.
While Venezuela denies involvement in Ojeda’s death, Maduro had already begun cracking down on political opponents in advance of this year’s elections, targeting key figures and organizations with accusations and arrests. In late January, Venezuela’s top court upheld an order from the Comptroller’s office barring popular opposition politician María Corina Machado from running for president, leading to accusations he was planning “a fraudulent election.”
In response, the US reimposed some sanctions that had been lifted in exchange for a promise of political reform and the release of political prisoners. Ojeda’s death may now lead Washington to reimpose additional sanctions on Venezuelan energy, mining, and secondary debt trading, despite the possible effect on global oil supplies and migration pressures.A meeting has been called at the Place de la Sorbonne by the collective Abortion in Europe, Women Decide.
Hard Numbers: France enshrines abortion rights, US inflation cools, Venezuela’s many elections, Trump barred from Illinois ballot, House votes to avert shutdown, Dozens killed while seeking aid in Gaza
⅔: France is expected to enshrine the right to an abortion in their constitution next week if the bill achieves a ⅔ majority vote in a joint session of parliament. President Emmanuel Macron proposed the measure in response to the rollback of abortion rights in the US, and it overwhelmingly passed in both houses of the French Parliament.
2.4%: Inflation in the US fell to 2.4% in January, in line with the Federal Reserve’s expectations. However, the Fed has said it won't lower interest rates until inflation has reliably returned to the 2% target.
20: Venezuela’s government proposed 20 potential dates for a presidential election this year, ranging from mid-April through December. It’s still not clear whether candidates previously banned from running for office, including President Nicolás Maduro’s strongest adversary this year, Maria Corina Machado, can participate.
14: Illinois has barred Former President Donald Trump from their ballot on the same 14th amendment grounds as Colorado, which is currently being weighed by the Supreme Court. Trump has appealed Illinois ruling, and the case will likely fall under the Supreme Court’s decision on the Colorado case.
12: In a rare spurt of bipartisan productivity, Congress reached a deal on 12 spending bills and averted a government shutdown that was impending on Saturday. The deal was approved by House and Senate leaders from both parties yesterday, which paved the way for the bills to pass in the House on Thursday. The spending bills are only a stop-gap measure, ensuring that the government keeps the lights for a few more weeks while Congress debates full-year funding bills.
112: At least 112 Palestinians were killed in Gaza on Thursday when Israeli troops opened fire on a crowd of people gathered around aid trucks, Gaza health officials said. President Joe Biden said the incident was likely to complicate cease-fire talks. The Israeli military offered a conflicting account, stating that dozens were trampled and killed as people “stampeded” aid trucks. But the military also said warning shots were fired in a nearby incident, with one spokesperson stating that soldiers fired in self-defense when people kept approaching. The spokesperson did not specify how many were killed, but rejected the toll offered by Gaza officials.
Venezuelan migrants are pat-down before boarding a repatriation flight as a part of an immigration enforcement process, at the Valley International Airport, in Harlingen, Texas, U.S. October 18, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela grabs Biden by the border, EU reaches deal on Ukraine aid, US strike on Houthi drones, Professional trust crisis, ICJ rules on Russia, Amelia Earhart found at last?
14: Venezuela has given the US 14 days to back off its “economic aggression,” or it will stop accepting deportation flights from the US carrying undocumented Venezuelan migrants. Washington has threatened to re-impose oil sanctions on Caracas after Venezuela banned the leading opposition candidate from running for president. But Venezuela is hitting Biden where it hurts: The migration crisis at the US southern border is becoming a major political liability for him, and Venezuelans are the third most common nationality of undocumented migrants apprehended.
50: The EU on Thursday reached a deal on an additional €50 billion in aid for Ukraine, breaking through a deadlock caused by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. "All 27 leaders agreed" on the support package, tweeted Charles Michel, the European Council president. Though Orbán is finally on board, it was not immediately clear what the Hungarian leader gained in exchange for abandoning his objections.
10: A US strike destroyed 10 Houthi drones in Yemen on Thursday, as Washington prepares to retaliate over a deadly attack on US forces in Jordan that the White House blamed on an Iran-backed coalition of militias. The US has repeatedly targeted the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in recent days in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
78: Who do Americans trust? Nurses, that’s who. A whopping 78% of respondents polled said nurses are honest and ethical, the highest of nearly two dozen professions. The bad news? That’s still down 7 points since 2019, amid a wider collapse of trust in all trades. The least trusted? No surprises here: members of Congress, with just 6% – lower than car salespeople! And just one profession is seen as more trustworthy than it was four years ago: Labor union leaders, who rose by one mere percentage point to 25% during that period.
7: After seven years, the International Court of Justice (yes the same court that is handling the Gaza genocide case) on Wednesday ruled that Russia violated a UN anti-terrorism treaty by supporting separatists in Eastern Ukraine, and a minority rights treaty by suppressing the Ukrainian language in Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. But in a setback for Ukraine, which brought the case, the court declined to rule on Russian responsibility for downing the MH17 commercial airliner in 2014.
87: Here’s some good news about America’s most famous missing aviatrix: An explorer claims his sonar imaging technology has found and photographed the remains of Amelia Earhart’s plane, which went missing over the Pacific Ocean 87 years ago as she attempted to become the first female pilot to fly around the world. Not bad. Next up, we’d like to ask this explorer to find us Jimmy Hoffa.Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro addresses supporters at an event, in Caracas, Venezuela January 23, 2024.
Venezuela defies the US on elections
Maybe there was never a good enough carrot to get Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to hold a real election, but with his latest move, the “21st-century socialist” strongman seems willing to suffer the stick rather than face his voters.
Last week, his top court disqualified popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado ahead of presidential elections that must be held later this year. That move violated a 2023 deal with the US in which Washington loosened crippling sanctions on Venezuela’s lucrative oil sector in exchange for a promise to hold a free vote.
That deal aimed to nudge Maduro towards democracy, but also to help stabilize the economy in hopes of stemming a record-high tide of Venezuelan migrants streaming towards the U.S. Southern border.
But Maduro wants no part of Machado, who experts say would beat him in a fair vote, so he’s willing to risk those US sanctions again, says Venezuela expert Risa Grais-Targow at Eurasia Group. They’d force Venezuela to sell more of its oil at a discount to Asia, but Maduro will gladly take the cash flow hit rather than lose an election.
This puts the White House in a bind: Doing nothing makes Biden’s policy look like a failure, but slapping sanctions back isn’t a great option either. They won’t move Maduro on the democracy front, but they could potentially exacerbate the border crisis right as Biden heads into the homestretch of an election campaign where immigration is already a scorching issue.
Is a compromise possible? Maduro might be OK with a free election so long as he’s sure to win. If the move to disqualify Machado causes the opposition to split between people who boycott the election and those who don’t, he might stand a chance. The Biden administration seems keen to explore options – the oil sanctions won’t slap back on until April (in the meantime, Washington has rapped Maduro’s knuckles with sanctions on Venezuelan gold.)
One thing Biden doesn’t have to worry about as much as you’d think? Gas prices. Losing Venezuelan crude might hurt some US oil refiners, says Clayton Allen, a US expert at Eurasia Group, but “It’s not enough for Joe Sixpack to notice at the Circle K.”
Biden's Israel policy hurts his 2024 reelection chances from all angles
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why is Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war hurting his reelection bid?
Well, look, there is virtually no position he can take on Israel and not alienate a significant piece of his own support base in the United States. He is presently stapled to the Netanyahu government and policy, which is really antagonizing more than 50% of committed Democrats, people who say they're going to vote for Biden. On the other hand, strongly pro-Israel Biden, Israel being America's most important ally in the Middle East, is seen as soft on that policy vis-a-vis the Republicans. The only way this is a winning issue for Biden is if it's no longer anywhere close to the headlines when the election hits.
Does France have a terrorism problem?
Well, sure they do, and they also have a radical Islamic extremist problem, and we've seen most recently that someone, a French national but is sworn allegiance with ISIS, knifed and killed one tourist next to the Eiffel Tower, injured a couple others. What they don't have is a major gun violence problem. If this guy had an assault weapon, probably would've killed a couple dozen.
Are Venezuela and Guyana on the brink of war?
I think the answer to that is no, but certainly we're going to hear a lot about major tensions. And the reason for that is because President Nicolás Maduro, who is very far from being a Democrat, his economy has been driven by him and his predecessor, Chávez, into a ditch. He has virtually no support domestically, and the opposition really, really wants to take power. And there has been a lot of pressure, including from the United States, carrots and sticks economically, to move forward on an election. Problem being that Maduro doesn't want to have a free and fair election, and he needs to find a way to rally support. And one thing he can do is Guyana, piece of Guyana, which the Venezuelans claim as their own, is one of the very few things that the Venezuelan people actually agree with Maduro on. So he decided to host a referendum, which the people strongly support, and they say, "We want to take that piece of territory." Now, supporting it and actually taking it are two very different things. First, because the Americans would strongly oppose. The Brazilians would strongly oppose, and you'd see a lot of sticks as a consequence of that against an economy that can't really afford them. But also, China is a partial owner of the massive oil find that is just offshore this territory in Guyana, and they are the only friend that spends real money with the Venezuelans right now. So I think this is a lot of bluff and a lot of bluster, but nonetheless, it's going to drive some headlines as maybe, maybe people worry about violence and another war in another part of the world.
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- Venezuela and Guyana border dispute ›
- Maduro’s weapon of mass distraction ›
- Venezuelan vote puts the neighbors on edge ›
- The Democrats post some wins – but continue to worry about 2024 ›
- Biden's 2024 prospects slip even as Democrats make gains ›
- Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities and strengths ›
- Biden and Israeli war cabinet go public over disagreement in Gaza war - GZERO Media ›
- AI explosion, elections, and wars: What to expect in 2024 - GZERO Media ›
- US inching away from Israel on Gaza war - GZERO Media ›
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Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro shows his ballot during a referendum over Venezuela's rights to the potentially oil-rich region of Esequiba in Guyana, in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 3, 2023.
Maduro’s weapon of mass distraction
Venezuela held a referendum Sunday on proposed statehood for the oil-rich region of Essequibo, currently governed by neighboring Guyana, with more than 95% reportedly voting to approve the proposed takeover.
At 61,600 square miles, Essequibo comprises two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is home to 125,000 of its 800,000 citizens. An international arbitral tribunal awarded the area to Britain in 1899 when the latter controlled British Guiana, but Venezuela has never recognized the ruling. Its contestation took on new life after ExxonMobil discovered oil in Essequibo's offshore waters in 2015, leading to a case before the International Court of Justice at the Hague that remains unresolved.
Venezuela’s referendum asked its citizens five questions, including whether they agreed with creating a new state called Guayana Esequiba, granting its population Venezuelan citizenship and identity cards, and including the new state in the map of Venezuelan territory. While the ICJ urged Venezuela to refrain from “taking any action” on the proposals, it did not ban the holding of the referendum.
Guyana fears the referendum is the first step to a takeover. “This is a textbook example of annexation,” Paul Reichler, an American lawyer representing Guyana, told the ICJ. But Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro disagreed, saying, “We are solving through constitutional, peaceful, and democratic means an imperial dispossession of 150 years.”
Before the vote, his government poured considerable resources into Essequibo-themed music, nationally televised history lessons, murals, events, and social media content to bolster the "Yes" vote. Observers see the referendum as a means of distracting the nation from calls for free and fair conditions in next year’s presidential election, as well as from the US government’s demand that Maduro release political prisoners and wrongfully detained Americans. Analysts say the creation of a Venezuelan state in Essequibo is highly unlikely.
Knowing the referendum would pass, Ian Bremmer tweeted that he was "deeply skeptical we are on the brink of war," especially since China, Venezuela’s close friend, owns a piece of the massive oil find Maduro claims.