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People are carrying a banner with political phrases during a rally in support of Nicolas Maduro's campaign in San Cristobal, Venezuela, on July 10, 2024.
Viewpoint: How far will Venezuela’s leader go to retain power?
As Venezuelans prepare to head for the polls on July 28, President Nicolas Maduro is pulling out all the stops to secure a third term in office and extend the Chavismo political movement’s 25-year grip on power. Chosen by the movement’s founder Hugo Chavez to succeed him as president, Maduro first won election in 2013 and has grown steadily more authoritarian.
Though Maduro pledged the coming election would be free and fair under the terms of the Norway-brokered “Barbados Agreement,” he has already reneged on some of its key terms. The agreement represents the latest in a series of attempts by the US and Latin American and European countries to encourage greater democratic opening in Venezuela.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targow what to expect from this weekend’s vote.
Do you think Maduro will do whatever it takes to ensure he remains in office?
It’s pretty clear at this point that Maduro is going to hold this election on his own terms. We’ve seen him bar the participation of the winner of the opposition primary, Maria Corina Machado, and her chosen successor, Corina Yoris. He has also taken steps to limit both credible electoral observation, including that of the EU, and voting by opposition supporters such as Venezuelans living abroad. All of these moves represent a violation of the Barbados Agreement.
On election day, I think the regime is hoping it can rely on various measures to suppress opposition voter turnout and mobilize its own base so that it doesn’t have to resort to ballot tampering to win. But I do think it is willing to do whatever it takes. I don’t think Maduro is going anywhere.
Would an opposition candidate likely win a fair election, and if so, why?
Yes, absolutely. What we’re seeing from credible polls is that Edmundo Gonzalez, the new unified opposition candidate, has an advantage of between 20 and 30 percentage points over Maduro. Maduro has been in power for 11 years and has overseen a substantial deterioration of economic conditions, the result of government mismanagement exacerbated by US sanctions aimed at forcing democratic reforms. Though conditions are finally stabilizing, multiple years of deep economic contraction have triggered massive migration outflows. About 7 million Venezuelans are living abroad today.
What’s more, this is the first presidential election since 2013 that the main opposition forces are all participating and backing a single candidate, which is one of the reasons Gonzalez is polling so well.
What is the likelihood of protests or violence around the election?
I think some level of violence or instability related to the vote could manifest in two ways, and I would say that both of them are somewhat likely. The first would be violence on election day as part of a repertoire of measures to discourage support for the opposition that includes moving polling stations from opposition strongholds or blocking their entrances and deploying the so-called colectivos (regime-affiliated criminal groups) to attack voters.
The second is the potential for unrest after the election, assuming that Maduro claims victory. There’s been a groundswell of support for the opposition, and its voters would probably feel like the election had been stolen. That said, recent polls suggest that voter appetite to take to the streets has waned, probably because of the regime’s violent repression of previous anti-government protests.
How do you think the international community is likely to react if Maduro wins what appears to be a fraudulent election?
This would be a difficult situation for the US, the EU, and some of Maduro’s key allies in the region such as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro. These regional leaders were trying to welcome Maduro back into the fold after the failed Juan Guaido experiment [the former head of Venezuela’s National Assembly claimed in 2019 to be the country’s legitimate president – and won recognition from many countries around the world – but then failed to consolidate his domestic support]. I would be surprised if they fully abandon Maduro and break off ties with him again.
The EU likewise has a bias toward normalization, though its electoral observation mission was uninvited by the regime, and if there is a lot of fraud, it will be forced to condemn the results. In the US, President Joe Biden’s administration also prefers normalization and engagement but will take its cues from how the opposition characterizes the elections. Regardless, I don’t see the US, at least under the Biden administration, going back to what they called the “maximum pressure” sanctions regime that we had in place up until September 2022.
What do you think the continuance of the Maduro regime means for the quality of life in Venezuela?
As I mentioned, the economic situation has stabilized somewhat over the last couple of years. Ironically, in response to the US sanctions, Maduro has become much more pragmatic in terms of economic policy. He has allowed for a dollarization of the economy and stopped printing money, so inflation has really come down. Still, there is a deep divide between those who have access to dollars and can afford to pay for imported goods and those who don’t. So, it’s no longer the case that the shelves in stores are empty, but you have to have the money to pay for them.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Tourist stand in front of Peak Bolivar at the Sierra Nevada in the Andean state of Merida July 30, 2008.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela loses its glaciers, Renewables hit 30, MTG flames out, Thailand smokes cannabis industry, Kenya bulldozes flood-prone homes
6: It may surprise you that Venezuela, located just north of the equator, has glaciers. Well, it had glaciers. The country has just become the first in modern history to lose all of its Andean mountain glaciers, which once numbered six in total. Global warming has caused the last of them, the Humboldt Glacier, to shrink so much that it is now a mere “ice field.”
30: But here’s some good news on the global warming front: Renewable sources reached 30% of total global energy production in 2023. Hydropower is still the reigning renewable champ, accounting for about half of all clean energy – but solar and wind have expanded dramatically over the past decade.
1.2 billion: Thailand’s cannabis industry, projected to reach $1.2 billion by next year, just got smoked. The country’s government has decided to re-list the leaf as a narcotic. The move reverses a decision two years ago to decriminalize recreational pot use. Supporters of the re-listing say that decriminalization was hastily done with poor regulations and has exacerbated youth addiction. Opponents say it will crush small businesses and that it’s unfair so long as alcohol and cigarettes remain legal.
75: As deadly rains continue to swell rivers and cause catastrophic flooding, the Kenyan government is now bulldozing homes in flood-prone areas and giving their owners the equivalent of $75 to move elsewhere. The government had given residents in high-risk zones a deadline to leave or face eviction. Security forces reportedly fired tear gas at some residents who tried to stop the bulldozers in the capital of Nairobi.Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, his wife Cilia Flores, and Vice President of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela Diosdado Cabello participate in a rally during May Day celebrations in Caracas, Venezuela, on May 1, 2024.
Is Venezuela’s election going to be too lopsided to steal?
Until about two weeks ago, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro looked like he’d managed to sideline the opposition enough to ensure a win in this summer’s presidential election.
His government had disqualified the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado. Then, for good measure, it banned her stand-in as well. The familiar specter of division and disorganization hung over the beleaguered opponents of Maduro, who has run Venezuela for more than a decade.
Then the opposition united to name the little-known, 74-year-old former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as their candidate. González has delegated most of his campaigning to Machado, and his popularity has soared. A poll over the weekend showed he already holds a 40-point lead over Maduro, with 62% of respondents saying they’d vote for him.
The government has already recognized him as a candidate, tarring him as an agent of “imperialism” – but that presents a problem. By moving against him, Maduro could overplay his hand in a country already reeling from economic mismanagement and US sanctions. But facing Gonzalez directly might leave Maduro vulnerable to the one thing a strongman can’t accept: losing.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro leads the celebration of the 22nd anniversary of late President Hugo Chavez's return to power after a failed coup attempt in 2002, in Caracas, Venezuela April 13, 2024
Biden reimposes sanctions on Venezuela*
The Biden administrationannounced this week it will reimpose oil sector sanctions on Venezuela because President Nicolas Maduro’s government has backed away from a commitment to hold a free and fair presidential election this year.
The US lifted sanctions six months ago, but Maduro’s government has since banned opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from running for president and blocked her chosen replacement from running too.
Now for the asterisk: US oil giant Chevron will be permitted to keep a joint venture with Venezuela’s national oil company. Why? Look at the calendar. Biden’s got an election to win in seven months. Venezuela is a major oil producer, and the US wants to avoid giving oil markets any more reason to worry.
After all, the threat of a wider war in the Middle East is creating oil supply jitters while a rapidly recovering Chinese economy is expected to start guzzling more crude again this year.
So while Joe Biden can no longer pretend Venezuela’s people will have a real choice in their election, with US inflation still stubbornly high, he’s got to make some hard choices about his own — and this is one of them.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro meets with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (not pictured) at Miraflores Palace, in Caracas, Venezuela February 20, 2024.
Venezuela picks election date
The government of Nicolás Maduro has picked July 28 as the date for the next presidential election.
With the popular opposition candidate María Corina Machado banned from running because of financial impropriety charges that she says are bogus, late July leaves precious little time for Maduro’s opponents to coalesce around an alternative challenger.
That, of course, may be precisely the point.
That leaves two big questions: First, will the US judge that this move violates the “free and fair elections in exchange for sanctions relief” deal struck between Caracas and Washington last year? If so, the Biden administration will have to slap tough sanctions back onto the energy sector in oil-rich Venezuela.
Second, is Maduro overplaying his hand? By squeezing the opposition so brazenly, he risks triggering big protests if the election is seen as a sham.
But five years after surviving street protests of hundreds of thousands (and a mass exodus of millions more) over unfair elections, Maduro is betting that this time around most of those who would challenge him are already either politically exhausted or permanently exiled. Vamos a ver.
FILE PHOTO: Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro attends to a military event in Caracas, Venezuela August 4, 2018.
Is Maduro behind a murder in Chile?
On Sunday, Chilean prosecutors said they had arrested a suspect in the murder of Ronald Ojeda, a 32-year-old Venezuelan ex-lieutenant and vocal critic of the government of President Nicolás Maduro, who was found dead in Santiago on Friday. Authorities said the lack of ransom demands and Ojeda's political history means he may have been abducted and killed by Venezuelan agents.
Ojeda had fled Caracas for Santiago in 2017, where he lived as a political refugee. He was charged with treason by the Venezuelan government in January, just weeks before he was abducted by four armed men on Feb. 21. His body was found encased in cement in a suitcase following a nine-day search. The detained suspect is a 17-year-old Venezuelan national.
While Venezuela denies involvement in Ojeda’s death, Maduro had already begun cracking down on political opponents in advance of this year’s elections, targeting key figures and organizations with accusations and arrests. In late January, Venezuela’s top court upheld an order from the Comptroller’s office barring popular opposition politician María Corina Machado from running for president, leading to accusations he was planning “a fraudulent election.”
In response, the US reimposed some sanctions that had been lifted in exchange for a promise of political reform and the release of political prisoners. Ojeda’s death may now lead Washington to reimpose additional sanctions on Venezuelan energy, mining, and secondary debt trading, despite the possible effect on global oil supplies and migration pressures.A meeting has been called at the Place de la Sorbonne by the collective Abortion in Europe, Women Decide.
Hard Numbers: France enshrines abortion rights, US inflation cools, Venezuela’s many elections, Trump barred from Illinois ballot, House votes to avert shutdown, Dozens killed while seeking aid in Gaza
⅔: France is expected to enshrine the right to an abortion in their constitution next week if the bill achieves a ⅔ majority vote in a joint session of parliament. President Emmanuel Macron proposed the measure in response to the rollback of abortion rights in the US, and it overwhelmingly passed in both houses of the French Parliament.
2.4%: Inflation in the US fell to 2.4% in January, in line with the Federal Reserve’s expectations. However, the Fed has said it won't lower interest rates until inflation has reliably returned to the 2% target.
20: Venezuela’s government proposed 20 potential dates for a presidential election this year, ranging from mid-April through December. It’s still not clear whether candidates previously banned from running for office, including President Nicolás Maduro’s strongest adversary this year, Maria Corina Machado, can participate.
14: Illinois has barred Former President Donald Trump from their ballot on the same 14th amendment grounds as Colorado, which is currently being weighed by the Supreme Court. Trump has appealed Illinois ruling, and the case will likely fall under the Supreme Court’s decision on the Colorado case.
12: In a rare spurt of bipartisan productivity, Congress reached a deal on 12 spending bills and averted a government shutdown that was impending on Saturday. The deal was approved by House and Senate leaders from both parties yesterday, which paved the way for the bills to pass in the House on Thursday. The spending bills are only a stop-gap measure, ensuring that the government keeps the lights for a few more weeks while Congress debates full-year funding bills.
112: At least 112 Palestinians were killed in Gaza on Thursday when Israeli troops opened fire on a crowd of people gathered around aid trucks, Gaza health officials said. President Joe Biden said the incident was likely to complicate cease-fire talks. The Israeli military offered a conflicting account, stating that dozens were trampled and killed as people “stampeded” aid trucks. But the military also said warning shots were fired in a nearby incident, with one spokesperson stating that soldiers fired in self-defense when people kept approaching. The spokesperson did not specify how many were killed, but rejected the toll offered by Gaza officials.
Venezuelan migrants are pat-down before boarding a repatriation flight as a part of an immigration enforcement process, at the Valley International Airport, in Harlingen, Texas, U.S. October 18, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela grabs Biden by the border, EU reaches deal on Ukraine aid, US strike on Houthi drones, Professional trust crisis, ICJ rules on Russia, Amelia Earhart found at last?
14: Venezuela has given the US 14 days to back off its “economic aggression,” or it will stop accepting deportation flights from the US carrying undocumented Venezuelan migrants. Washington has threatened to re-impose oil sanctions on Caracas after Venezuela banned the leading opposition candidate from running for president. But Venezuela is hitting Biden where it hurts: The migration crisis at the US southern border is becoming a major political liability for him, and Venezuelans are the third most common nationality of undocumented migrants apprehended.
50: The EU on Thursday reached a deal on an additional €50 billion in aid for Ukraine, breaking through a deadlock caused by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. "All 27 leaders agreed" on the support package, tweeted Charles Michel, the European Council president. Though Orbán is finally on board, it was not immediately clear what the Hungarian leader gained in exchange for abandoning his objections.
10: A US strike destroyed 10 Houthi drones in Yemen on Thursday, as Washington prepares to retaliate over a deadly attack on US forces in Jordan that the White House blamed on an Iran-backed coalition of militias. The US has repeatedly targeted the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in recent days in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
78: Who do Americans trust? Nurses, that’s who. A whopping 78% of respondents polled said nurses are honest and ethical, the highest of nearly two dozen professions. The bad news? That’s still down 7 points since 2019, amid a wider collapse of trust in all trades. The least trusted? No surprises here: members of Congress, with just 6% – lower than car salespeople! And just one profession is seen as more trustworthy than it was four years ago: Labor union leaders, who rose by one mere percentage point to 25% during that period.
7: After seven years, the International Court of Justice (yes the same court that is handling the Gaza genocide case) on Wednesday ruled that Russia violated a UN anti-terrorism treaty by supporting separatists in Eastern Ukraine, and a minority rights treaty by suppressing the Ukrainian language in Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. But in a setback for Ukraine, which brought the case, the court declined to rule on Russian responsibility for downing the MH17 commercial airliner in 2014.
87: Here’s some good news about America’s most famous missing aviatrix: An explorer claims his sonar imaging technology has found and photographed the remains of Amelia Earhart’s plane, which went missing over the Pacific Ocean 87 years ago as she attempted to become the first female pilot to fly around the world. Not bad. Next up, we’d like to ask this explorer to find us Jimmy Hoffa.