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Top Risks of 2026
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ask ian
Ian Bremmer takes a look at the week's top stories in geopolitics.
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Ian Bremmer breaks down President Trump’s ultimatum to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, “leave with your family or be removed,” and why US military action now appears imminent.
With America’s naval power and 15,000 troops positioned off Venezuela’s coast, Ian argues Trump wouldn’t make such a threat unless he intends to act. But the motive isn’t democracy: “Trump doesn’t care if you’re a dictator or a democrat,” Ian says. Instead, he sees incentives tied to drugs entering the US and Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.
The risks, however, are huge. From civilian exposure around Maduro to regional opposition from Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and Europe, and little domestic support, a unilateral US operation could be messy, unpopular, and dangerous.
“I hope it goes well,” Ian admits, “but I think it’s a very bad idea, and that doesn’t make it unlikely.”
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