From Iran to Ukraine: The growing risk of conflict
February 18, 2026
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Ian Bremmer takes a look at the week's top stories in geopolitics.
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In this episode of "ask ian," Ian Bremmer breaks down two high-stakes negotiations in Geneva: Russia-Ukraine and indirect US-Iran talks, calling both “underwhelming” with little progress.
On Iran, Ian warns the urgency is rising fast. With additional US military assets moving into position, he says the “likelihood of strikes [is] increasingly quite high. I would say way over 50%.” Tehran hasn’t met US demands to end uranium enrichment, curb its nuclear program, or halt support for regional proxies.
On Ukraine, Ian notes a growing rift between the US and Europe, arguing the US is driving negotiations while Europeans fund Kyiv’s defense. The result is “two sets of negotiations, not much movement, increasing urgency,” and the potential for both conflicts to escalate soon.
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