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People attend an anti-immigration protest, in London, Britain, October 26, 2024.
UK prime minister promises border crackdown
The UK Labour Party, as the expression goes, hits different now. At least when it comes to immigration.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the party’s leader, lambasted what he called the UK’s post-Brexit “open borders” policies and promised a comprehensive crackdown on immigration.
This capped a sea change in the party’s views under Starmer, who took over from his (much) further left and more pro-immigration predecessor Jeremy Corbyn in 2020, and led the party back to power for the first time in 14 years in July.
The context: Since the UK “Brexited” from the EU, immigration numbers have soared under successive Conservative governments. Last year, net migration hit a record high of 906,000 people. Immigration debates have roiled the country with particular fury in recent months. August saw violent clashes between xenophobic mobs and immigrant gangs, stoked in part by online misinformation. The government's response, which included the arrests of several people for stoking anti-immigrant violence online, drew harsh criticism from anti-immigration groups and free speech activists.
The bigger story: Across the continent, just as across the pond, backlashes against mass immigration are a defining feature of politics. No longer solely a right-wing issue, parties from all points on the political spectrum must find a politically tenable position on the issue.Trump and Trudeau on opposite sides of a border wall.
What does Trump’s mass deportation mean for Canada — and immigration policy?
Donald Trump’s radical plan to crack down on undocumented immigration has sparked widespread concerns across the US. Beyond the human rights implications, there are serious questions regarding the potential economic toll of Trump’s immigration proposals. Trump has promised mass deportations and this week confirmed plans to involve the military. He has vowed to begin deportations on his first day in office.
State and municipal leaders are already taking steps to protect immigrants ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Earlier this week, Los Angeles passed a sanctuary city ordinance codifying the rights of migrants. Governors in California, Massachusetts, and Illinois are considering plans of their own to protect migrants at the state level, setting up a showdown between the federal government and state and local governments.
Rights groups have raised the alarm about the potential for violations and abuse if Trump’s plan moves forward, as economists warn that the president-elect’s immigration plan would lead to higher prices for food and other goods, alongside labor shortages. In 2022, undocumented workers made up nearly 14% of the construction industry, 13% of the agriculture industry, and 7% of the hospitality industry. On top of all that, it’s estimated that Trump’s plan could also take a decade and cost nearly a trillion dollars.
Trump’s push to deport millions comes amid shifting public sentiment toward immigration. Gallup’s tracking poll has seen a sharp increase in recent years in the share of Americans who want to see lower immigration levels — from 28% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. A similar trend is emerging to the north.
Canada watches closely — and faces its own migration problem
Canada is keeping a particularly close eye on what happens next in the US, especially with regard to Trump’s immigration plan. The two countries share the world’s longest undefended border and a trade relationship worth a trillion dollars a year.
Experts have warned that Trump’s push for mass deportations could lead undocumented immigrants in the US to flee to Canada and trigger a migrant crisis, destabilizing the country at a time when it’s already turning against newcomers domestically.
After decades of a strong pro-immigration consensus in the country, Canadians have recently begun to oppose higher levels of immigration. A fall poll found that roughly three-quarters of Canadians want to reduce immigration until housing gets cheaper. The shift in support has been building for some time as politicians point to a growing rate of immigrants — which federal and provincial governments control — as a source of pressure on housing affordability, healthcare resources, and jobs.
In recent months, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has introduced changes to immigration policy aimed at curbing numbers. In the fall, the government moved to limit the number of international students the country would admit. It also reformed the country’s temporary foreign worker program, scaling it back. More recently, the Liberals introduced a plan to cut immigration levels by roughly 20% next year and more in the following two years — after raising those targets as recently as last year. Economists warned the moves could slow the economy.
Managing a mercurial Trump
Trump’s mass deportation plan puts Canada in a precarious position. The Trudeau government will have to manage the logistics of regular and irregular crossings along with a potential spike in asylum claims. Meanwhile, Ottawa will face the more general challenge of maintaining strong relations with Washington under a president who often blindsided Canada on issues like trade during his first term in office.
Some of Trump’s appointees have already ripped into Canada over border security, painting the country as a laggard and a threat — particularly incoming border czar Tom Homan, who cites concerns about terrorists crossing between the countries. Homan says there is an “extreme national security vulnerability” along the US-Canada border and expects “tough conversations.”
For its part, the Canadian government says it’s prepared to “do the work” in response to US border concerns, particularly as irregular crossings at the northern border are up. But that work could become complicated if Trump proceeds with his plan for mass deportations — especially if Canadian police and border officials lack the resources to manage what may come.
An uncertain path ahead
The word “unprecedented” gets thrown around a lot lately, but what follows next on immigration, border policy, and the relationship between Canada and the US could indeed be unprecedented. A mass deportation program, combined with softening support for immigration on both sides of the border, politicians ready to scapegoat migrants, and the economic consequences of bringing in fewer newcomers — at a time when people are just beginning to see the early stages of relief from a years-long housing affordability crisis — will be, to say the least, a mess.
It’s an extraordinary, and dangerous, moment of realignment.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, notes that the US and Canada have “traditionally been highly welcoming of new immigrants, at least compared to other countries.” However, he points out, there’s been a dual shift lately driven by two different sources.
He argues that Canada doesn’t necessarily have to harmonize its immigration policy with the US under Trump, but it will face pressure to tighten border security and screening processes for newcomers.
Nonetheless, Canada doesn’t have to follow Washington’s lead, he says, since the two face different challenges.
“The immigration pressures in each country are very different. In Canada, the primary focus is on bringing down numbers of international students and temporary foreign workers, in large part due to cost-of-living pressures, whereas in the US, the emphasis is on undocumented immigrants who entered the country illegally, which is not a significant problem north of the border.”
But the question remains: What will Canada do if and when Trump proceeds with his mass deportation plan and the northern border becomes a focal point for migrants, particularly as the country worries about Trump on trade and defense? And as the Liberal government, down 20 points in the polls, faces an election due by October 2025?
The Trudeau Cabinet says it’s focused on the matter and has a plan for the border, but details have been scant so far, leaving Canadians — and migrants — left to wonder what comes next.
People hold signs reading "Trump, we will not pay for the wall" and "Trump, stop the mass deportations" near the border fence between Mexico and the U.S., in Tijuana, Mexico March 13, 2018.
Trump’s immigration plan faces hurdles
The president-elect has promised to deport between 15 and 20 million people, which is more than the roughly 13.3 million undocumented people estimated to be residing in the US. “There's a lot of uncertainty around how high deportations could go under Trump,” says Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith. “I'd roughly estimate he will deport between 500,000 and 600,000 in 2025.” That would mark an increase from the current number of approximately 200,000 annually. But, Daponte-Smith added, “there's room for that number to move upward.”
What are Trump’s immigration plans? On the campaign trail, he promised to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally. So far, the president-elect has tapped immigration hardliners likeStephen Miller, Tom Homan, and Gov. Kristi Noem to serve as his deputy chief of staff, border czar, and chief of Homeland Security, respectfully – key positions for immigration and border security.
In a Fox News interview, Homan said deporations would prioritize “public safety and national security threats” as well those who disobeyed court orders to leave the country. For logistical ease, ICE would likely begin with single adults – although Homan defended Trump’s family separation policy and said that families “can be deported together.”
ICE would also likely prioritize immigrants from countries with Temporary Protected Status, because it has reliable biometric data on recipients, making them easier to find. TPS authorizes immigrants to live and work legally in the US when their home country has been deemed unsafe for return. Within TPS recipients, ICE would probably start with countries that accept the most return flights of deportees. However, Venezuela, which has the most people in the program, does not accept deportees. So Trump’s only option would be sending them to a third-party country, which would likely be met with legal battles. The TPS countries accepting the most removal flights are Haiti and Honduras.
Trump faces headwinds. On the logistics side, ICE already has 38,863 people in custody, and it “simply doesn’t have the capacity to handle one million deportations a year right now,” says Daponte-Smith. “If Republicans beef up funding for ICE and other enforcement agencies next year, that would help significantly,” and a united Congress will make this easier for them. But he also doesn’t buy that deploying the military would be much help picking up the slack. “The National Guard has no experience with deportations, and I doubt it would be easy to convert them to that purpose,” he says. Still, declaring a national emergency would also give the president more power to devote funds to the issue without congressional approval.
The other big headwind is political. “Mass deportations will create a huge political blowback, potentially involving large-scale street protests,” says Daponte-Smith. Even if Trump and his team are not responsive to this, it “could be an issue for congressional Republicans” ahead of the 2026 midterms.Displaced Palestinians walk in a tent camp amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on Nov. 9, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Israel expands humanitarian zone, Bitcoin bounces, Italy’s Meloni loses in court, OECD prices remain high, A very late book return
84,653: The price of bitcoin hit a record high of $84,653 on Monday afternoon on hopes that President-elect Donald Trump will offer cryptocurrency-friendly policies. A year ago, bitcoin sold for about $37,000.
7: An immigration court in Italy has rejected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s bid to detain Europe-bound asylum-seekers in Albania. The judge ruled that seven Bangladeshi and Egyptian men brought to Albania by an Italian warship must be taken to Italy and remain there as they await a decision on their asylum application.
30: Though the inflation rate has cooled across wealthy countries, average price levels across the OECD remained about 30% higher in September 2024 than in December 2019, before COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent inflation surging.
51: A book called “The Early Work of Aubrey Beardsley” was returned to a public library in Massachusetts last week. The book was due for return on May 22, 1973, making it 51 years late. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed that China’s government will pay the fine. (Just kidding.) The Worcester Public Library does not charge late fees.Graphic Truth: Foreign-born populations in the US and Canada
The foreign-born populations in the US and Canada have been steadily rising for decades. Both are countries of immigrants, with millions upon millions arriving on their shores from distant lands over the centuries, and this is ingrained into their national identities. But polling shows that in recent years a majority of Americans and Canadians want to see less immigration — including legal immigration.
Politicians have taken notice. President-elect Donald Trump has made curbing immigration a central aspect of his platform and has pledged to conduct mass deportations of undocumented immigrants once he takes office.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also recently took steps to reduce the number of new immigrants coming into Canada. “Immigration is essential for Canada’s future, but it must be controlled and it must be sustainable,” Trudeau said late last month.
Are these trends driven by xenophobia or a product of people feeling financially vulnerable and concerned that more immigrants will place strains on the economy? Or is it both? We would love to hear your thoughts!
Google logo is displayed on a mobile phone screen photographed with a Russian flag in the background for an illustration.
Hard Numbers: Kremlin hits Google with zeroes, Chileans demand tighter borders, Americans suffer election anxiety, Flash flooding wreaks havoc in Spain, Mount Fuji is missing something
20 decillion: The Kremlin hit Google with a fine of $20 decillion on behalf of Russian broadcasters banned by the company’s subsidiary, YouTube. Russia says the $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 — more than a million trillion times larger than the size of the entire global economy but still nearly 70 zeroes smaller than a “googol” – is symbolic. There aren’t enough zeroes in the world to convey how minimal the chances are of Google paying the Kremlin a single cent.
96: How popular is the idea of tighter immigration restrictions in Chile? Some 96% of the country now favors reducing the influx of foreigners, according to a new poll. Chile, a relatively prosperous country that has long had a relatively lax border policy, saw its foreign-born population surge by 25% between 2018 and 2022, driven largely by the mass exodus from Venezuela. A backlash against migrants, partly shaped by the 2021 presidential election, has continued to grow.
70: Roughly 70% of Americans are feeling anxious or frustrated about the election, according to a new AP/NORC poll. If you are one of the afflicted, find someone among the 36% who report feeling “excited” about the upcoming vote. Who are these people?
158: At least 158 people have been killed by devastating flash floods in Spain's Valencia region, as rescuers continue to search for survivors. The fatal flooding, the worst such disaster for the country in a century, wreaked havoc — sweeping away entire homes and leaving cars piled in the streets.
130: Japan’s Mount Fuji is missing something right now: snow. The peak’s iconic snowcap usually begins forming in October, and never in 130 years of records has it gone without one this late in the month. The summer of 2024 was tied with 2023 for Japan’s hottest ever.Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at a meeting of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce in Calgary, Alberta, Canada December 21, 2016.
Canada cuts immigration rates – for now
Justin Trudeau’s government announced Thursday that it is cutting the number of immigrants Canada will take in, at least temporarily.
After years of higher permanent resident targets – the country aimed for between 410,000 and 505,000 newcomers last year alone – the government’s new goal is 395,000 next year, followed by 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
The prime minister said the temporary pause is designed to let the country’s economy “catch up” with population growth. In recent months, the government has been criticized for its immigration plan as Canadians worried about the effects of a greater number of newcomers on housing costs, health care, and jobs.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre called Trudeau’s “flip-flop” on immigration “a massive admission of failure.” Poilievre’s party currently leads the governing Liberals in the polls by roughly 20 points as the incumbents struggle to turn public opinion around.
Immigration ranks among the top 5 issues Canadians are concerned about ahead of the next federal election, which is due by the fall of 2025.
Turkish citizens disembark naval ship TCG Bayraktar carrying people evacuated from Lebanon upon their arrival at a port in Turkey's Mediterranean coastal province of Mersin, Turkey, October 10, 2024.
Hard Numbers: A quarter of Lebanon under Israeli evacuation orders, Milton costs insurers big, The EU wants its money back, Early voting in Georgia breaks records
25: Over 25% of Lebanon is facing Israeli evacuation orders, which were expanded to include 20 villages on Tuesday. The sprawling evacuation orders come as Israel expands its bombing campaign in the south and east of Lebanon, and in the suburbs of Beirut. Over the past three weeks, 1.2 million people have already fled from their homes, with more than 400,000 children in Lebanon displaced, according to the UN children’s agency.
36 billion: After Hurricane Milton tore through central Florida last week, risk modelers predicted that it would lead to about $36 billion in insurance payouts, well above the $6 billion of claims they estimate Hurricane Helene caused last month. The cost of increasingly damaging storms has experts fearing that more insurance firms will exit the region, further driving up premiums.
163 million: It is looking certain that the EU will be unable to claw back any of the $163 million it paid to Tunisia in a controversial migration deal. Brussels paid Tunis to crack down on migrants leaving its shores bound for Europe, but the money is being increasingly linked to human rights violations – including allegations that sums went to security forces who raped migrant women.
305,900: On Tuesday, the first day of early voting in Georgia, the southern US state saw record turnout, with 305,900 votes. That’s more than twice the number of first-day early voters in 2020, when the state’s previous record was set with 136,000 votes cast on the first day.