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Inflation sign going upwards

imago images/Christian Ohde via Reuters Connect

March inflation report threatens Biden campaign’s economic strategy

The S&P 500 dropped over 1% after consumer inflation rose 0.4% in March and 3.5% from the previous year, indicating that high inflation could be here to stay. The report surprised forecasters and poses a challenge to President Joe Biden's reelection chances, as persistent inflation means higher gas prices and bigger grocery bills for voters.

Energy prices continue to rise – 1.1% month over month and 2.1% year over year – thanks to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East driving up the price of oil and, as a result, inflation.

The latest figures have cast doubt on the Federal Reserve's progress toward its 2% inflation target, meaning it may reassess its interest rate plans. Investors now expect rate cuts to be pushed to later in the year, instead of earlier predictions of a March cut.

This is bad news for Biden, who has been anxious for inflation to fall even further to spur the Fed to cut interest rates — a move that would help drive down borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and other consumer credit.

Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election?
Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election? | Ian Bremmer explains | GZERO World

Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election?

How much does foreign policy matter in a US presidential election? This year, more than usual.

When pollsters started asking Americans in 1948 what they viewed as the “most important problem” facing the country, foreign policy and international security dominated.

Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, Biden has managed to turn a Covid-ravaged economy around, with growth pegged at about three percent per quarter. Wages are going up, unemployment is at an all-time low and the stock market is coming on strongly. By every economic indicator, Biden should be surging. And yet, by every political indicator, he’s floundering.

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Is the global economy finally on the right track?
Is the global economy finally on the right track? | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Is the global economy finally on the right track?

How’s the global economy doing… really? When it comes to the world’s post-COVID recovery, it’s a tale of two economies: the United States and everyone else. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist and author Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances and the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation.

Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries are holding record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?

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The global economy: good news and bad news from economist Dambisa Moyo


Listen: In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist, author, and member of the UK parliament’s House of Lords Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances, the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation, and how China’s economic woes are impacting everyone else.

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Ian Explains: Is the US economy good or bad?
Is the US economy good or bad? | Ian Bremmer explains | GZERO World

Ian Explains: Is the US economy good or bad?

What’s going on with the US economy? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the confusing state of America’s financial health.

Trying to make sense of economic indicators right now can be an exercise in illogic: unemployment is down, but inflation is still stubbornly sticky. Interest rates are higher than they’ve been in two decades, but stock indexes are closing at record highs. Adding to confusion, the upcoming US presidential election means that the economy is front and center, but Democrats and Republicans have a partisan interest in making things seem worse or better than they actually are. So what’s really going on?

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3 themes to watch as US election season begins
Three key things to watch as 2024 election season begins | US Politics In :60

3 themes to watch as US election season begins

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.

With the Iowa caucuses coming up, what are the big themes to watch in American politics this year?

Monday of next week is the first day the official kickoff of the US presidential campaign season, even though it feels like it's already been going on for six years. It really only starts on next Monday with the Iowa caucuses begin. Donald Trump has a big lead in the Republican primary. Nobody's challenging President Biden on the Democratic side. And so here are three themes to watch throughout this election year.

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FILE PHOTO: A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the “Loonie”, is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015.

REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo

US government spending drives growth as Canada flatlines

The US economy is growing much faster than Canada’s – while north-of-the-border GDP has been flat for months, the Americans posted a 4.9% growth rate in the third quarter.

What accounts for the difference? Experts point to higher US spending – both public and private – as well as lower debt loads. Canadians carry the heaviest household debt in the G7. The country is also, of course, suffering from a brutal housing crisis that is showing no signs of abating.

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Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities and strengths
Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities and strengths

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week on a Monday here in New York City. And yeah, everyone, everyone talking about those polls, New York Times and Siena showing that Biden is behind Trump, not just in overall popularity, but also specifically in how voters in key swing states will vote. And, of course, that's the Electoral College. That's how you actually get elected president of United States. So, yeah, Biden supporters very concerned about that. But we are a year away, so it is early.

Having said that, a few things that I think are worth paying attention to. Number one, 71% of Americans say Biden, 80-year-old Biden is too old to run for president. Look, very few people actually work regularly with an 80-year-old. So I get it. And in a year's time, I'm fairly confident he's going to be a year older. So this is not something that Biden can do much of anything about. And there is material downside. Having said that, Biden is more obviously aging physically where intellectually, you know, one one-on-one in small meetings, he's still actually able to hold down meetings reasonably well.

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