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Car drivers queue to fill their fuel tank at a TotalEnergies gas station in Nice as petrol supplies are disrupted by a strike of French refineries and depots, France, March 20, 2023.

REUTERS/Eric Gaillard

Hard Numbers: French oil refinery blockades, China’s mRNA milestone, Moscow comes to Bali, IMF tweaks rules for Ukraine, TikTok hearing

13: As French protesters continue to strike and block oil refineries in response to the government’s recently passed pension reform, 13% of petrol stations around the country are running short on gas. What’s more, a lack of shipments from LNG terminals is raising fears of shortages – and elevated prices – across Europe.

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The Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, U.S.

REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo

SVB collapse & interest rates: What’ll the Fed do?

US markets rebounded Tuesday, temporarily calming fears that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank might trigger a domino effect that makes both investors and ordinary Americans lose confidence in the banking system. But the uncertainty ain’t over yet.

With the stakes so high, who you gonna call? No, not those guys. We mean the Federal Reserve.

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U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in Washington, D.C., March 13, 2023.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

SVB collapse: Don’t say the B-word

US President Joe Biden on Monday addressed the nation to assure Americans that, whatever the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, their deposits and the entire banking industry are both "safe."

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Episode 1: Should I ​STILL be worried?

Transcript

Listen: The equivalent of what we spent in World War II was spent in the course of a year and a half to support the US economy, and that had global impacts. All of that was rolled out with incredible speed and effectiveness, [but] the hangover effects from that are very, very significant,” said David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Investments at Citi Global Wealth. Years into a global pandemic and one year into an unexpected war in Ukraine, the stability of the world's economy - and political balance - remains in question.

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A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S.

Reuters

What We’re Watching: Central banks vs. inflation, Peru’s endless crisis, Russian "energy terrorism"

Mixed messages from US, European central banks

In their last meeting of the year, two European central banks – the Bank of England and the European Central Bank – followed the US Fed in raising interest rates by 50 basis points, down from their most recent hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point. While central bank chiefs said that November’s numbers show that inflation has peaked, they also warned that this more mild rate hike should not be taken as a sign that they're taking their feet off the brakes. Facing sky-high energy prices and a tight labor market, the UK is on the brink of recession, economists say, while the EU is not far behind. Indeed, ECB chief Christine Lagarde admits that the eurozone will likely enter a recession next year, although says it will be “relatively short-lived and shallow.” Wishful thinking? Maybe. Lagarde also confirmed that eurozone inflation will remain above its 2% target into at least 2025 and warned of more belt tightening. Meanwhile, the Fed has now raised interest rates to the highest level in 15 years, and markets dipped in response to indications that higher rates would persist well into next year.

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US President Joe Biden grapples with inflation.

GZERO Media

Why job and wage growth in the US are freaking out investors

The jobs report for November came in hot Friday, revealing that wage and job growth in the world’s largest economy remain robust. Sounds like a good thing, right? Well, not when the US economy is reeling from decade-high inflation.

Markets cooled on Friday morning – and then recovered slightly – as investors got spooked by news that the US economy added 263,000 jobs in November while average hourly wages jumped 5.1% year-on-year, a key component of inflation. For context, between 2010-2019 average monthly job gains in the US came in at around 183,000. November’s unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained stubbornly low at 3.75% despite recent aggressive efforts by the US Federal Reserve to cool an economy set on fire by dual nightmares: the pandemic and war in Ukraine.

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Tony Blair: UK Faces “Very Uncertain Period” | GZERO World

Tony Blair on Liz Truss & a post-Brexit UK on the brink

Despite sky-high inflation and a plummeting pound, the UK’s newly installed PM Liz Truss has introduced tax cuts — requiring a lot more government borrowing — that she says will boost the UK’s sluggish growth rate.

This approach, which could result in the Bank of England increasing interest rates even more to tackle inflation, is ruffling feathers in Westminster and negatively impacting markets around the globe. On the sidelines of the UN general Assembly, Ian Bremmer sat down with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair on GZERO World to discuss Britain’s economic woes and recent change in leadership.

“I think it's going to be a very uncertain period over the next year or so,” Blair said. “And I talk to a range of different people about this, which is always a problem when you're trying to make economic policy in government, and no one agrees with each other.”

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Ari Winkleman

Hard Numbers: US interest rate hike, jail for likes in Myanmar, Ecuador-China debt deal, Ramaphosa no-show, COVID fraud

75 or 100: Apart from UNGA, the other big meeting this week is at the US Federal Reserve, which will again raise interest rates to tame soaring prices. The question is: by how much? Although a third consecutive 75 basis points hike is more likely, the Fed might also go bigger with a 100 basis points increase after last week's worse-than-expected inflation report.

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