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People fleeing gang violence take shelter at a sports arena, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
The clock starts ticking on Haiti’s border
The Dominican Republic has suspended all new visas for Haitians, and threatened to close the border with its neighbor entirely by Thursday unless a dispute over water rights is resolved before then.
Workmen in Haiti have recently been spotted building a canal that diverts the waters of the Dajabon River, which forms part of the border. The Dominicans say this violates international agreements on sharing the water, and want Haiti to stop the construction.
Haiti-DR tensions have risen over the past year. Haiti’s deepening political and economic crisis has driven more Haitians to seek refuge in their eastern neighbor. Citing concerns about the Dominican Republic’s ability to absorb refugees, Dominican President Luis Abinader has sent troops to the frontier, expelled tens of thousands of Haitians and people of Haitian origin, and begun construction of a border wall.
Closing the border wouldn’t just shut out refugees. It would also exacerbate Haiti’s economic suffering – last year, nearly a quarter of the goods that Haiti imported came from the Dominican Republic.
Can Haiti even do what the DR is asking? The Haitian government of Ariel Henry – who took over after the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in 2021 – is weak and deeply unpopular. With gangs controlling nearly 80% of Port-au-Prince, does Henry even have the ability to enforce his will 120 miles away in Dajabon? We have about 24 hours to find out.
Residents of the Carrefour Feuilles neighborhood gather outside a military base demanding help after they had to flee their homes when gangs took over, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, in August 2023.
The country that wants to take on Haiti’s gangs
Who on earth would want to fight the gangs of Haiti?
Kenya, for one.
In early August, the East African nation offered to lead a UN-backed policing mission to corral the gangs that have wreaked havoc on Haiti ever since the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in 2021 plunged the Caribbean nation into fresh political and economic chaos.
Several weeks later, a Kenyan security team spent several days in Port-au-Prince, meeting with local officials, UN representatives, and US diplomats to craft a peacekeeping proposal.
The situation there continues to deteriorate by the day. Gangs now control 80% of the Haitian capital. Gang-related violence and kidnappings have displaced at least 165,000 Haitians. In late 2022, a gang takeover of fuel depots put nearly half of the country’s 11 million people at risk of starvation.
The chaos has paralyzed the government of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who took over after Moise’s death but has no electoral mandate. Elections would be nearly impossible to hold under the current conditions.
Both Henry and the UN have called for outside help. The US too, which this week called on all of its own citizens to leave Haiti, has backed the idea.
If it happens, it would be the first time any African Union country has led a major peacekeeping operation beyond the continent.
But why, exactly, is Kenya signing up for this? After all, warring with Haitian gangs sounds like a distinctly thankless and possibly fruitless task.
Nairobi framed its proposal as a mission of brotherly assistance to people of African descent. But analysts say it’s part of a broader agenda to raise Kenya’s international profile.
Kenya has a long history of participating in international forces within Africa – Sierra Leone in the late 1990s, Somalia since 2011, and the Democratic Republic of Congo since late last year. But since President William Ruto came to power last year in a bitterly contested election, Nairobi’s foreign policy has become “significantly more adventurous,” says Connor Vasey, an East Africa specialist at Eurasia Group.
In addition to the DRC intervention, Ruto hosted the peace talks that ended the war between Ethiopia’s government and Tigray rebels, and he leads a multilateral group mediating Sudan’s current civil war as well. Next week, he is hosting the United Nations’ African Climate Week in Nairobi.
By looking toward Haiti, Ruto is signaling that he wants to take Kenya’s role on the international stage to the next level, says Mercy Kaburu, an assistant professor at United States International University in Nairobi.
“Under this new government,” she says, “Kenya is asserting itself as an African country that is willing to go out of its comfort zone, a country that can undertake more complicated global roles.”
Is there a US angle here? Yes. Washington is keen to see the situation in Haiti stabilize. The humanitarian crisis has driven a surge in irregular immigration from Haiti to the US, and the country’s descent into a gang-wracked failed state is an open invitation to drug cartels and other transnational criminal organizations to take root there.
But at the same time, the US – which has its own checkered history of interventions in Haiti – has ruled out intervening directly. If Kenya wants in, Washington seems glad to back Nairobi. And Ruto has, in fact, been keen to deepen ties with Washington again after his predecessor forged stronger relations with China.
Vasey at Eurasia Group says there’s reason to believe the US may offer some “financial incentives” to Kenya in exchange for taking on the Haiti mission. Last year, the US sent close to a billion dollars of aid to Kenya.
Not everyone loves the idea of Kenyan intervention. Rights groups point out that Kenya’s police have a history of using excessive force and carrying out extrajudicial killings at home.
Language barriers could also be an issue, as Kenyan policemen generally don’t speak French, much less Haitian Creole.
And among ordinary Haitians, there has long been a deep skepticism of foreign interventions of any kind. They have never brought lasting peace but they have, on occasion, brought epidemics of cholera, as the UN peacekeepers from Nepal did a decade ago. The sight of a government with no popular mandate inviting yet another foreign intervention may not go over well with ordinary Haitians.
The stakes are high. Thousands of ordinary Haitians have braved the streets in recent weeks to protest against the gangs. And many Haitians, desperate for order, have formed vigilante groups of their own, killing hundreds of suspected gang members. Last weekend, a church group armed with sticks and machetes clashed with a local gang outside of Port-au-Prince, leaving at least 7 people dead.
With that kind of violence, even Kenya seems worried. The Kenyan mission to Haiti resulted in a more limited proposal than what Haitian officials had hoped for. Rather than a broad strategy for tackling the gangs, Kenya suggested a narrower focus on securing critical infrastructure. And, according to one report, Kenyan officials were so spooked by the escalating violence that they barely left the Port-au-Prince airport.
What’s next: Kenya will need to finalize its proposal and take it to the UN for a vote. That could happen in the coming weeks. In the meantime, Haitians continue to live a daily hell with no end in sight.
Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa speaks to the media in Harare, on Aug. 27, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Zimbabwe election results, deadly attack in Haiti, British Museum recovery, valuable mug shot, chasing reindeer
52.6: President Emmerson “Crocodile” Mnangagwa claimed victory in Zimbabwe’s recent election with 52.6% of the vote, beating his main rival, Nelson Chamisa, according to official results announced late Saturday. The opposition is refusing to accept the results, claiming widespread voting irregularities.
7: At least seven people were killed in a gang attack on a Christian protest in Haiti. Gang violence has increased dramatically since the July 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, and criminals now control up to 80% of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince.
2,000: The British Museum says it has recovered some of the 2,000 items believed to have been stolen by an insider over a long period of time. The thefts – which led to the recent resignation of the museum’s director – included 3,500-year-old gold jewelry, gemstones, and antiquities, some of which were found for sale on eBay.
7,000,000: Say cheese. The campaign of Donald Trump says it has raised over $7 million since he was booked in Georgia on charges of plotting to overturn the 2020 election and became the first-ever former US president to have a mug shot.
500,000: Norway is building a fence at a cost of €500,000 to stop its Sámi reindeer herds from crossing into Russia. Sounds costly, but this should save Oslo money, as Russia has demanded compensation of €6,700 per reindeer plus a lump sum of nearly €6.3 million for the days the animals have grazed on the Russian side of the border.
Podcast: UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, human rights, & the Security Council presidency
Listen: On August 1, the United States will take over the presidency of the United Nations security council.
The GZERO World Podcast heads to the Security Council chamber at the UN headquarters in New York City for a special conversation with US UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
The US has a few major agenda items they hope to tackle during the month of August, including global food security, human rights issues, and calling out Russia for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Thomas-Greenfield also hopes to use the session to address issues getting less attention in the media, like the Sudan war and security situation in Haiti.
But how effective can the Security Council be at dealing with the world’s most urgent crises when two US geopolitical adversaries, Russia and China, are permanent, veto-wielding members? Should Russia be removed from the council? And how difficult is it for the US to champion human rights around the world when the political environment at home is so divisive?
Ian Bremmer sits down with Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield in a wide ranging conversation about diplomacy, security, and the future of the United Nations.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published- Ian Explains: Why Russia has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council ›
- Hard Numbers: Russia to helm Security Council, Sonko seized, Stubborn EU inflation, Australia vs. climate change ›
- As Sudan war worsens, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says UN must help ›
- UN official: Security Council Is “dysfunctional” - but UN is not ›
- Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, Sudan & the power of diplomacy - GZERO Media ›
- Russia undermines everything the UN stands for, says Linda Thomas-Greenfield - GZERO Media ›
- Can the US be a global leader on human rights? - GZERO Media ›
There is still a Haiti crisis
Hey everybody. Ian Bremmer here, Quick Take to kick off your week and I want to talk about something that we've really spent almost no time talking about. Neither has the media, but it deserves our attention.
And that is the crisis in Haiti. It is the poorest country in the western hemisphere, despite being the wealthiest colony a few centuries ago. Over 50% of the population under the poverty line, and today it is a failed state with no government, no legitimized governance. Instead, the capital city is controlled by criminal gangs, and some of the surrounding countryside as well, has only deteriorated since 2021 when the president, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated. Still with all sorts of questions as to exactly who was behind that and how violence has escalated since then. Overwhelming the underfunded police force while the security forces that remain are corrupt and ineffective and largely tied to the gangs themselves.
The United Nations reports that this situation has descended into what they call a catastrophic spiral of violence. Gangs shooting indiscriminately at people on the street, firings into their homes, burning people alive on public transport. Because the Haiti government can't respond, civilians are forming vigilante groups to fight the gangs and lynching of suspected members and the rest, I don't know if you all saw "Escape from New York", it's sort of like that, but not as cinematic. It's only 700 miles away from Florida, which is just far enough away to not pay attention. And of course, the Haitians are not Europeans like Ukraine. And so getting nowhere near the attention from the media, nowhere near the influencers on social media, the care nowhere near the international aid or support. The situation is desperate and there is no path to fixing it. There have been talks to try to resolve Haiti's political crisis, but last week they hit a deadlock.
And absent that, there's no willingness to deploy international forces that would help to combat criminal gangs who continue to terrorize the country. My friend, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, has called for the Security Council to issue a deployment of peacekeeping forces, but so far that has gone nowhere. The Americans are asking the Canadians to do more. The Canadians are saying, "Well, unless there's support on the ground from a government, we're not going to provide forces." They'll provide some funding for the police. But of course, if there's no government on the ground that there's no legitimacy. This clearly is a case where the G-7 as a whole plus concerned members of the Global South need to come together and actually have a peacekeeping force, need to be providing a level of rule of law and accountability and also need to shine a light on this issue.
And frankly, the only way that's going happen is much more pressure. I know a friend of mine, Richard Engel from NBC, is planning on going over there and starting some coverage soon. I think that will be helpful. The major, mainstream media on the left, on the right in the US and internationally needs to be sending more correspondence. I know it's hardship duty, and I know it's dangerous, but thank God for them. They need to be doing more coverage of Haiti so people understand this. I'm going to do our best to try to make sure that we do more than we have been. GZERO has been on it, but nowhere near frankly, what we should be. And I do hope that we can help to turn the page on what has been an utter catastrophe for the 11 million Haitians that are living in this situation.
Thanks a lot for this, and I hope to talk to you soon. Bye.
Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand discusses China's spy balloons & crisis in Haiti
On GZERO World, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand spoke with Ian Bremmer on two pressing issues for Canada: China's spy balloons and the crisis in Haiti.
Despite a suspected Chinese spy balloon being shot down over the Yukon and the need for Ottawa to have an Indo-Pacific strategy, Anand acknowledges that the world is becoming "increasingly dark" as Canada must keep "eyes wide open" on China.
In terms of Chinese apps, Canada has already banned TikTok on government devices and Anand has extended the same ban to her own children.=
Regarding Haiti, the US has asked Canada to send troops to help restore security, but Canada wants to focus on Haitian-led solutions. Anand admits it's difficult when all elected officials have fled the country, but believes throwing money at the problem won't make it go away. As she tells Bremmer, "we need to ensure we're taking a measured approach."
Note: this interview appeared in an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 10, 2023, "What the US and Canada really want from each other"
Is Canada doing enough to help Haiti?
At their last summit, US President Joe Biden asked Canada's PM Justin Trudeau to send Canadian troops to help restore security in Haiti. But so far, there's no deal — and the country remains stuck in lawlessness.
Canada wants to focus on Haitian-led solutions, Defense Minister Anita Anand tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But how can you do that when we don't know who's running Haiti? All the elected officials have fled the country.
Still, Anand believes that "we can't simply throw money at a problem and expect it to go away."
Asylum-seekers board a bus after crossing into Canada from the US in Champlain, New York.
What We’re Watching: Border clampdown, Haiti’s hellish choices
Crackdown at Roxham Road
While the great and the good were celebrating the progressive partnership between Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau at a glamorous Ottawa state dinner with yellowfin tuna and Alberta beef, Mounties were shutting down the irregular border crossing at Roxham Road, south of Montreal.
This delighted Quebec Premier François Legault but came as a shock to the desperate migrants who were en route to the crossing when the news broke. The sad and difficult stories of desperate migrants — fleeing war, crime, poverty, and repression — were not shared at the dinner where Canadians feted Biden. The quid pro quo for Biden’s help was a Canadian agreement to accept 15,000 migrants from the Caribbean and Central America.
Yet, closing the irregular border crossing at Roxham Road will likely have a negligible impact. Even if the move initially slows the influx, smugglers will find other routes — which could be more perilous. In fact, eight migrants died late last week in an attempt to cross the St. Lawrence River from Canada to the US.
One striking thing about the announcement was that nobody got wind of it until the day before. The governments had reached a deal in the spring of 2022 but succeeded in keeping it quiet until the last minute, apparently out of a desire to make sure migrants didn’t make a rush for the border.
Terrible choices for Haiti
In the leadup to Biden’s visit, the US repeatedlysignaled that it would like Canada to play a leadership role in a military intervention to bring order to chaotic, hellish Haiti, both for humanitarian reasons and to slow the flow of migrants to both Canada and the US. Nobody thought Canada would send in peacekeepers.
Indeed, Trudeau did not agree to send troops, and Biden said he wasn’t disappointed, but both leaders promised to keep working on the problem.
Perhaps Brazil could return to stop the gangs from terrorizing the population, former president of the World Peace Foundation Robert Rotberg argues, after which Canadians, and especially Canadians from the Haitian diaspora, could play a central role in reconstructing a government.__________
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